Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Houston Texans (5-5)

The Texans are 5-5, but most of their wins have been by multiple scores, while most of their losses have been by one-score, giving them a +57 point differential (9th in the NFL), a +1.43% first down rate differential (9th), and a +0.53 yards per play differential (8th). The Bills have two more wins than them, but aren’t much better in most of those metrics, ranking 8th in point differential (+63), 6th in first down rate differential (+3.07%), and 7th in yards per play differential (+0.68). However, the Texans are without starting quarterback CJ Stroud and stud defensive back Jalen Pitre for the third straight game. This line accurately reflects that though, favoring the Bills by 5.5 at home, which is my exact calculated line. If I have to pick a side, I would pick the Texans, but only for a no confidence pick.

Early Locked Bets: DAL +3.5, IND +3.5

Buffalo Bills 25 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Houston +5.5

Confidence: None