San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2025 NFC Divisional Round Pick

San Francisco 49ers (13-5) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3)

This is the third time these two divisional opponents have met this season. The 49ers opened the season with a 17-13 win in Seattle week 1, in which the 49ers won the first down rate battle by 0.73 and the yards per play battle by 5.51%. In week 18, the Seahawks beat the 49ers in San Francisco 13-3, in a game in which the Seahawks won the first down rate battle by 11.90% and the yards per play battle by 1.27. Common sense would suggest that the more recent of the two matchups between these teams holds more predictive value and it is true that when two teams that split the season series meet for a third time in the post-season the team who won the more recent matchup tends to win more often than not, but maybe not as often as you would think, as teams are just 14-9 in that spot and just 11-12 ATS.

That alone isn’t a reason to pick the 49ers to cover, but I think this spread is a little inflated based on the recent matchup between these two teams, with the Seahawks favored by 7 points, after being favored by 2.5 points week 18. This game is in Seattle rather than San Francisco, but that much of a little movement is more than just the location change. The 49ers won’t have George Kittle for this game and the Seahawks will have left tackle Charles Cross, who didn’t play in the previous matchup, but the 49ers also get back left tackle Trent Williams, who is much better than Cross and more important to this offense than Kittle, and Kittle was not 100% in the previous matchup either. On top of that, the 49ers are likely to get back wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, who didn’t play in the previous matchup, though the loss of starting safety Ji’Ayir Brown does hurt them. Overall, I have this line calculated at Seattle -6, so we’re getting some line value with the 49ers, but not nearly enough for them to be worth betting.

Seattle Seahawks 20 San Francisco 49ers 14

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +7

Confidence: Low

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2025 NFC Wild Card Round Pick

San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)

The 49ers were statistically the better of these two teams in the regular season. While the Eagles had the edge in yards per play differential, ranking 10th at +0.29 while the 49ers ranked 18th at -0.11, the 49ers had a bigger edge in first down rate differential, ranking 8th at +1.78%, as opposed to 17th at +0.20% for the Eagles, and first down rate differential is more predictive than yards per play differential. 

The Eagles were a much better defensive team, ranking 7th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, as opposed to 27th for the 49ers, but the 49ers were a much better offensive team, ranking 2nd in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, as opposed to 22nd for the Eagles, and offensive efficiency tends to be much more predictive than defensive efficiency. In terms of overall schedule adjusted efficiency, which weights offensive efficiency higher than defensive efficiency, the 49ers have a 3.7-point edge, suggesting this line should favor the visiting 49ers by about 1.5.

Unfortunately, my roster rankings tell a different story, primarily because these two teams are going in a different direction injury wise heading into the post-season. The Eagles’ offense should be better now than it was overall on the season due to the return of right tackle Lane Johnson from a 7-game absence and the Eagles’ defense should be better now than it was overall on the season due to the return of interior defender Jalen Carter from a 6-game absence and the mid-season trade addition of edge defender Jaelan Phillips. On the other hand, the 49ers offense looks likely to be without left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, while their defense, which has already been without its two best players, edge defender Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner, since weeks 3 and 6 respectively, now is expected to be without their next two best linebackers Dee Winters and Tatum Bethune.

That being said, I am still picking the 49ers in this game with the Eagles being 4.5-point favorites because the Eagles have played a lot of close games. Their only multi-score wins this season have come against the Giants, Raiders, and Commanders, who were three of the worst teams in the league. In six matchups with playoff qualifiers, they won by more than 4.5 twice and one of those involved a last second return of a blocked field goal to push the margin of victory from 1 to 7. So in six tries, the Eagles would have had a legitimate cover of a 4.5-point spread just once against playoff caliber teams. Even with the current injury situations of these two teams taken into account, my calculated line is just Philadelphia -2.5. I am not betting on the 49ers for now, but if we get good news on some of the 49ers’ currently questionable players and/or this line moves up when players are ruled out, I could end up betting on the 49ers.

Update: Trent Williams returned to practice today, giving him at least a chance to play this week. Despite that, this line has moved to up +6. I am going to lock in a bet on the 49ers at that number.

Update: I am glad I locked this in at +6 while I could because not only is Williams active, but the Eagles will surprisingly be without Lane Johnson. I am not able to increase this bet at +6, but I am adding a money line play because you can still get the 49ers at more than 2:1 underdogs to win straight up.

San Francisco 49ers 26 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Upset Pick +210

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +6

Confidence: Medium

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2025 Week 18 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (13-3) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4)

The 49ers have been on fire since getting quarterback Brock Purdy back from injury, winning six straight games while Purdy has played at a borderline MVP level over that stretch. This week, he will be without left tackle Trent Williams due to injury, but he will get tight end George Kittle back after he missed his sixth game of the season due to injury last week. As a result of their recent winning streak, the public seems to not understand why the Seahawks are favored by a point on the road in this game, betting on the 49ers heavily. The Seahawks are a big step up from the teams they have played on their winning streak though, as they rank 2nd in first down rate differential (+5.55%) and 1st in yards per play differential (+1.34). 

The 49ers, on the other hand, rank 7th in first down rate differential (2.35%) and 18th in yards per play differential (-0.07). Part of that is due to the injuries the 49ers have had this season and they are overall healthier than they have been, but my roster rankings still suggest the oddsmakers are right to favor the visitor in this game and, if anything, this line is a little short, with my calculated line at -2.5. There isn’t nearly enough here for the Seahawks to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Seattle Seahawks 26 San Francisco 49ers 24

Pick against the spread: Seattle -1

Confidence: Low

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams: 2025 Week 5 NFL Pick

San Francisco 49ers (3-1) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1)

The Rams are 3-1, but they could be 4-0 if not for special teams miscues against the Eagles. Even with that loss taken into account, I would argue the Rams are right behind the undefeated Eagles and Bills as the third best team in the league. They lead the league in yards per play differential at +1.42 and rank 4th in first down rate differential at +4.17%. The 49ers are also 3-1 and rank 6th in yards per play differential at +0.96 and 2nd in first down rate differential at +4.85%, but they have faced a much easier schedule than the Rams.

The 49ers also come into this game much more depleted than the 49ers. Somehow the 49ers will be without their top-3 wide receivers Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, and Brandon Aiyuk, their top tight end George Kittle, their starting quarterback Brock Purdy, starting left guard Ben Bartch, top edge defender Nick Bosa, and starting safety Malik Mustapha. The Rams, on the other hand, will only be missing one key player, right tackle Rob Havenstein. That gives the Rams a significant 9-point edge in my roster rankings. 

Making matters especially tough for the 49ers is that they will have to travel on a short week with so many replacement players in the lineup. Short weeks almost always favor a significantly better team at home, even in matchups between familiar division opponents. Divisional home favorites of a touchdown or more are 30-6 straight up on Thursday Night Football, as long as both teams are on short rest, winning by an average margin of 12.3 points per game and covering at a 58.3% rate. This spread opened at 3.5 and slowly crept up to 7 as bad injury news came out for the 49ers, but I don’t think the line has been moved high enough, as sportsbooks are wary of creating too big of a middle by moving this line up too high. Let’s take advantage of that with a Thursday Night Football Pick of the Week.

Week 5 Early Locked Picks: IND -6.5, DET -10

Los Angeles Rams 30 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

San Francisco 49ers 2025 NFL Season Preview

Quarterback

The 49ers were probably the most disappointing team in the league last season, going from a 12-win season and a Super Bowl appearance in 2023 to being seen as one of the early favorites in 2024 to finishing with a 6-11 record and in last place in their division. This off-season, the 49ers lost among the most key players of any team in the league, without replacing most of them. Despite that, I still like the 49ers’ chances for a bounce back season, for several reasons.

For one, the 49ers were statistically much better than their record suggested last season, as they finished the season 2nd in yards per play differential and 5th in first down rate differential, which are both much more predictive year-to-year than a team’s win-loss record. The 49ers did that despite having the most adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league last season, by a wide margin. In fact, there was a bigger gap between the 49ers and the second most injury plagued team in the league last season than there was between the second most injury plagued team and the 12th most injury plagued team.

The 49ers lost a lot this off-season, but many of the players they lost either missed significant time and/or had down years in 2024. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw missed all but 34 snaps due to injury last season. Interior defender Javon Hargrave was limited to 104 snaps in 3 games. Safety Talanoa Hufanga struggled with a 57.8 PFF grade in 304 snaps across 7 games after returning from injury. Cornerback Charvarius Ward missed five games and was not himself when on the field while dealing with tragedy in his personal life, finishing the season with just a 56.2 PFF grade. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel only missed two games, but was limited due to injury in numerous games, resulting in a career low 1.60 yards per route run average and a career low 70.9 PFF grade.

When the 49ers were at their best in 2023, they were led by nine players between their offense and defense who played at least 700 snaps and finished with a PFF grade above 80: quarterback Brock Purdy, running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle, left tackle Trent Williams, edge defender Nick Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner, and cornerback Charvarius Ward. In 2024, Purdy missed two games and did not seem to be himself when he returned, McCaffrey was not himself across 167 snaps in four games, Samuel and Ward missed time and were not themselves when on the field, as mentioned, Williams missed seven games, Aiyuk missed ten games, Kittle missed two games, Bosa missed three games, and Warner did not miss a game, but played through a broken bone in his leg for most of the season. 

Samuel and Ward are gone, Kittle and Williams are on the wrong side of 30 and could decline this season, and Aiyuk and McCaffrey still have significant injury concerns, but overall I would expect much more in 2025 out of those core players from the 49ers’ 2023 team than the 49ers got from them in 2024. The 49ers also drafted well in the 2024 NFL Draft, with second round pick cornerback Renaldo Green (69.2 PFF grade across 675 snaps), third round pick guard Dominick Puni (80.5 PFF grade across 1,078 snaps), and fourth round pick safety Malik Mustapha (63.9 PFF grade across 755 snaps) all showing a lot of promise as rookies, not to mention first round wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, who could take a step forward in year two. With those players added to the mix and healthier seasons from their core players from 2023, the 49ers still have a team that could compete in the NFC in 2025, assuming they don’t have the historically bad injury luck they had last season.

The biggest reason the 49ers had to let so many players leave this off-season was the fact that they owe quarterback Brocky Purdy a huge raise from his rookie deal. Purdy got a lot of criticism for the 49ers’ struggles last season and his TD/INT ratio noticeably declined from 31/11 to 20/12 between 2023 and 2024, but yards per attempt is much more predictive year-to-year than TD/INT ratio and he still ranked 3rd in yards per attempt (8.49), despite not having as good of a supporting cast as he had in years past and despite playing through injury in his final five starts of the season. 

Overall, Purdy finished the season with a PFF grade of 82.4 in 2024, 11th among quarterbacks, after posting a 88.4 PFF grade, 4th among quarterbacks, in his first full season as a starter in 2023. He has proven he can produce at a high level even without an elite supporting cast and that he can post MVP level production with an elite supporting cast, so he deserves a top quarterback contract, at least more than most of the quarterbacks who have gotten them recently, including Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, and possibly Jared Goff.

Purdy will be backed up this season by free agent signing Mac Jones. Jones is a bust as a former first round pick, completing 65.9% of his passes for an average of 6.75 YPA, 54 touchdowns, and 44 interceptions in 49 starts in four seasons in the league since being selected 15th overall in 2021, but he’s a solid backup, he came relatively cheaply (2-year, 8.41 million), and he is a good fit for the 49ers’ scheme. At the very least, he should be an upgrade over Brandon Allen and Josh Dobbs, who combined for 63.6% completion, 7.27 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in the absence of Purdy last season. The 49ers would likely still be in trouble if Purdy suffered a serious injury and Jones had to play for a significant period of time, but that’s true of almost every team and Jones is above average as far as backup options go.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The 49ers’ running backs were probably their position group that was hardest hit by injuries last season. Not only did Christian McCaffrey miss most of the season and disappoint in limited action when on the field, but top backup Elijah Mitchell missed all of the season and expected third string Jordan Mason, who surprised as the lead back in the absence of McCaffrey and Mitchell with 5.17 YPC on 153 carries, also missed five games, leaving the 49ers down to their 4th or even 5th string running back at times.

Mitchell and Mason were not brought back this off-season, but 2024 4th round pick Isaac Guerendo flashed potential as a rookie last season, with 5.00 YPC on 84 carries and 1.42 yards per route run as a receiver, and the 49ers also added Oregon’s Jordan James in the 5th round of this year’s draft, so their depth situation isn’t bad. Of course, if Christian McCaffrey does end up missing more time this time, it would be a huge blow to this offense even if their depth at the position isn’t bad. 

At his best, McCaffrey is the best all-purpose running back in the league, averaging 256 carries for 1,271 rushing yards (4.96 YPC) and 11 rushing touchdowns with an average 94/794/6 slash line and 1.69 yards per route run in his last four healthy seasons in 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023, but he has also been limited to 3 games, 7 games, and 4 games in 2020, 2021, and 2024 respectively, so the injury risk is obvious. Making matters worse, McCaffrey is now heading into his age 29 season with 1,871 career touches, which is a relatively advanced age with a relatively high career usage for a running back, which, not only could increase his injury risk, but could prevent him from being at his top form even when on the field. Ultimately, I would expect a lot more out of McCaffrey in 2025 than 2024, even if he’s not at his best, but the injury and age risk is obvious as well. 

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

With Deebo Samuel having a down year and Brandon Aiyuk missing all but seven games last season, Jauan Jennings surprisingly stepped up and had a career year with a 77/975/6 slash line and 2.26 yards per route run (14th among eligible wide receivers), after combining for just 78 catches, 963 yards, and 7 touchdowns across his first four seasons in the league from 2020-2023, when he averaged just 1.23 yards per route run. Jennings is a one-year wonder and might not be as efficient as he was a year ago, but Samuel is gone and Aiyuk could be out until mid-season as he recovers from a multi-ligament tear in his knee, so Aiyuk could see even more playing time than a year ago, when he ranked just 48th among wide receivers in routes run.

Ricky Pearsall, their first round pick in 2024, also figures to have a big role this season. He had an underwhelming rookie year with a 31/400/3 slash line on 1.31 yards per route run, but he has a valid excuse, missing the first six games of the season after an off-season gunshot wound, which likely led to him not being 100% all season even when he did play. Now in his second season in the league, he has the upside to take a big step forward. Jennings will probably lead 49ers wide receivers in production, but Pearsall probably has the highest upside of any of their options, aside from Aiyuk, who obviously has a serious injury concern.

When Aiyuk is not on the field, veteran free agent addition DeMarcus Robinson will likely be the 49ers’ #3 receiver behind Jennings and Pearsall. He’s an underwhelming option though, as the 505 receiving yards he had last season was the highest total of his 9-year career, a career in which he has averaged just 0.96 yards per route run, and now he is heading into his age 31 season, so he almost definitely is what he is at this point of his career and easily could regress and be even less effective than he has been throughout his career. He could face competition for his role from 2024 4th round pick Jacob Cowing, who played 106 nondescript snaps as a rookie, and 4th round rookie Jordan Watkins, but Robinson will likely be ahead of Cowing and Watkins on the depth chart and, even if he isn’t, it’s unlikely Cowing or Watkins would be any better.

Obviously the big question mark in this receiving corps is Aiyuk. In his last full season in 2023, Aiyuk was one of the best receivers in the league, totaling a 75/1342/7 slash line on just 105 targets, averaging 3.01 yards per route run, 3rd in the NFL among eligible wide receivers, and posting a 92.3 PFF grade, 2nd in the NFL among eligible wide receivers. However, in addition to dealing with a significant injury, he is also a one-year wonder in terms of performing at that level, averaging just 1.78 yards per route run, with a career high of 1.91 yards per route run in his other four seasons in the league. Even in 2024 before his injury, he had just a 25/374/0 slash line and 1.74 yards per route run in seven games. Aiyuk’s return from injury could still be a big boost for this offense, but I wouldn’t expect him to be anywhere near his 2023 form.

Tight end George Kittle will remain a big part of the offense. His age is becoming a concern, now going into his age 32 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, recording the second highest receiving yardage total of his career last season with a 78/1106/8 slash line on just 94 targets, and, even if he does decline a little bit, he will likely remain one of the best tight ends in the league because he is declining from such a high base point. In addition to averaging 2.48 yards per route run and a 86/1191/7 slash line per 17 games over the past seven seasons, he is also an elite run blocker, leading to him receiving PFF grades of 89.7, 95.0, 84.9, 90.9, 82.0, 87.6, and 92.1 over those seven seasons.

Eric Saubert was the #2 tight end last season, but he wasn’t retained as a free agent this off-season and instead was replaced with Luke Farrell on a 3-year, 15.75 million dollar deal. Saubert had a 51.2 PFF grade across 377 snaps last season, so it won’t be hard for Jarrell to be better, but he was still likely overpaid as a free agent. Jarrell is a capable blocker, which is primarily what his role will be in San Francisco, but he has only averaged 0.96 yards per route run with 36 catches in 66 career games, so he won’t be much more of a factor in the passing game than Saubert was. This is still a talented receiving corps, even with Deebo Samuel gone, Brandon Aiyuk likely to miss the start of the season, and George Kittle getting older, but they are not the elite unit they were in 2023.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

Getting left tackle Trent Williams back from injury will also be a big boost for this offense, though with him coming off of a significant injury and going into his age 37 season, it is fair to question if he will be the same player. Williams has exceeded a 75 grade on PFF in every season since 2011 though, with 10 seasons over 80, including an 85.6 PFF grade last season before his injury, so, even if he isn’t quite the same, the future Hall of Famer should still remain at least an above average left tackle, barring a massive decline.

Left guard Aaron Banks left as a free agent this off-season, one of the few players the 49ers lost this off-season who was actually healthy last season, but he was a middling starter with a 65.4 PFF grade in 13 starts, so it’s not as if he’s irreplaceable. In his place, the 49ers will likely start Ben Bartch. Bartch has only started 22 games in five seasons in the league, with a career high of 11 starts back in 2021, but he has mostly been decent when called upon, finishing above 60 on PFF in every season except his rookie season, and he flashed a lot of potential in limited action last season, with a 74.8 PFF grade across 65 snaps. 

Bartch is still a projection to a season-long starting role, but the 49ers have a history of getting the most out of their offensive lineman, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he proved to be a capable starter. His primary competition for the job is Spencer Burford, a 2022 4th round pick who struggled with PFF grades of 49.6 and 50.4 across 29 starts in his first two seasons in the league, before posting a 57.6 PFF grade across 113 snaps as a reserve in 2024. Bartch should beat him out for Aaron Banks’ old job unless something strange happens.

Center is also somewhat of a concerning position for the 49ers. Jake Brendel remains as the starter, after making all possible 51 starts over the past three seasons, but he has been middling at best in those three seasons, with PFF grades of 64.9, 63.9, and 65.0, and now he heads into his age 33 season and could decline, which would likely push him down into below average starter territory. If Brendel struggles, the 49ers’ other option is Matt Hennessy, a 2020 3rd round pick who excelled as a run blocker with a 88.1 PFF run blocking grade in 17 starts in 2021, but he also struggled mightily in pass protection with a 50.5 PFF pass blocking grade that season and, aside from that season, he has only ever played 398 snaps and started 5 games in his other four seasons in the league.

Fortunately, the 49ers found a steal in the third round of last year’s draft in Dominick Puni, who started all 17 games for the 49ers at right guard last season and was PFF’s 8th highest ranked guard with a 80.5 grade. Even if Puni isn’t quite as good again in 2025, he should remain at least an above average starter and he has the upside to develop into one of the consistently best guards in the league. He’ll continue starting next to right tackle Colton McKivitz, who wasn’t quite as good last season as Puni was at right guard, but who still had a solid season, with a 72.2 PFF grade in 17 starts. 

A 2020 5th round pick, McKivitz played sparingly in his first three seasons in the league, but had a solid 65.1 PFF grade while also making all 17 starts in his first season as a starter in 2023, before taking another step forward in 2024. Now with two solid seasons as a starter under his belt, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025, still only his age 29 season. McKivitz and Trent Williams will likely be backed up by swing tackle DJ Humphries. Humphries finished above 60 on PFF in nine straight seasons from 2015-2023, but he missed 49 games due to injury over that stretch, played just 92 snaps last season primarily as a reserve, and now he is going into his age 32 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. He’s probably still a good swing tackle option though. The 49ers have some question marks at left guard and center, but this should still remain at least a solid offensive line, especially if left tackle Trent Williams stays healthy and continues to avoid declining for another season, despite his age.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The 49ers didn’t have quite as many injuries on defense as they did on offense, but they did have some key players miss significant time. Stud defensive end Nick Bosa missed three games and he was sorely missed in those three games, as he had a 91.0 PFF grade across 693 snaps, excelling both as a run defender and a pass rusher, with 9 sacks, 16 hits, and a 16.4% pressure rate, while none of the 49ers’ other edge defenders finished with a PFF grade above 60 on the season. 

Bosa’s dominant play in 2025 when healthy was no surprise, as he has consistently been one of the best defensive players in the league since being the second overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, finishing above 80 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including three straight seasons over 90. In total, he has 62.5 sacks, 108 hits, and a 16.2% pressure rate in 82 career games. Still only going into his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from Bosa again in 2025 and, aside from last season and a 2020 campaign ended by a torn ACL, he has played at least 16 games in every season in the league, so I wouldn’t necessarily classify him as injury prone.

The rest of the 49ers’ edge defender group could be better this season too, after adding Georgie’s Mykel Williams in the first round of the draft. Williams is raw, particularly as a pass rusher, but he should still be able to be an upgrade as a rookie and he has a huge upside long-term. He figures to replace veteran Leonard Floyd as the starter opposite Bosa and, while Floyd had 8.5 sacks last season, that was mostly because of Bosa facing double teams and causing disruption opposite him, as Floyd finished the season with a 53.5 PFF grade across 604 snaps, so it wouldn’t be hard for Williams to be better overall than Floyd was last season.

The rest of this edge defender group consists of holdovers who struggled a year ago, most notably Sam Okuayinonu, who had a 54.1 PFF grade across 451 snaps, Yetur Gross-Matos, who had a 51.5 PFF grade across 367 snaps, and Robert Beal, who had a 55.3 PFF grade across 149 snaps. Okuayinonu is a 2022 undrafted free agent who had played just 105 mediocre snaps in his career prior to last season, so he’s unlikely to ever develop into even a useful rotational player. 

Gross-Matos was a second round pick in 2020 by the Panthers, but has finished below 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league and, now going into his age 27 season, is running out of time to deliver on his upside. Beal was a fifth round pick in 2023 and has shown very little across 188 career snaps. The 49ers are likely to get a healthier season out of Nick Bosa and the addition of Mykel Williams should make the rest of this edge defender group better in 2025 by default, but there are still significant depth concerns at this position.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The 49ers also used significant draft capital on the interior defender position this year, taking Alfred Collins in the second round and CJ West in the fourth round, but this is still an underwhelming position group. Even though they were drafted two rounds apart, Collins and West are similar prospects, earning third round grades from PFF, excelling against the run in their final collegiate season, ranking 5th and 9th in run defense grade on PFF, but also possessing limited athleticism and pass rush upside. 

One or both of Collins and West figure to play a significant role in an unsettled position group this season. Javon Hargrave missed all but 104 snaps in three games last season, so his departure this off-season won’t hurt this team much, nor will the loss of Maliek Collins, who had a 57.9 PFF grade across 715 snaps, but the rest of this position group still consists of a mostly mediocre group of holdovers, including Jordan Elliott (440 snaps), Evan Anderson (267 snaps), Kalia Davis (259 snaps), and Kevin Givens (185 snaps). 

Elliott struggled with a 47.6 PFF grade last season, which is nothing new for him, as the 5-year veteran has finished below 60 on PFF in every season in the league, including four straight seasons below 50. Davis was also terrible last season with a 47.3 PFF grade, in the first significant action of the 2022 6th round pick’s career. Anderson wasn’t terrible last season with a 60.8 PFF grade, but it came in very limited action and he was an undrafted free agent in 2024, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he never developed into even a consistently capable rotational player. Givens, meanwhile, is a 6-year veteran who has averaged 261 snaps per season in his career, while never finishing above 60 on PFF for a season, including three seasons below 50 and a 49.6 PFF grade in 2024. With rookies set to play a big role amidst a mediocre group of holdovers, the interior defender position figures to be a big position of weakness for the 49ers again in 2025.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

As I mentioned earlier, linebacker Fred Warner played most of last season through a broken bone in his leg, which makes it even more impressive that he had a 89.2 PFF grade across 997 snaps, while not missing a game. For Warner, it was his fourth season over 80 on PFF in the past five seasons, including a career best 90.2 PFF grade in 2023. In seven seasons in the league, he has missed just one game, while averaging 60.9 snaps per game in an every down role. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect another dominant season from him in 2025, perhaps even better than a year ago if he’s healthier.

Dee Winters figures to be the 49ers other starting linebacker next to Warner. Winters showed some potential last season with a 66.4 PFF grade across 398 snaps last season, after he took over the starting role down the stretch last season from veteran De’Vondre Campbell, who had a mediocre 58.3 PFF grade across 719 snaps and was not retained this off-season. Winters could continue being a solid starter into 2025, but he was only a 6th round pick in 2023 and struggled across 61 rookie season snaps before showing potential last season, so he’s still very unproven.

The 49ers also don’t have a good alternative if Winters cannot continue playing at the level he played at down the stretch last season. The rest of the 49ers’ linebacker depth chart consists of Luke Gifford, a career special teamer who has played 288 mediocre snaps on defense in six seasons in the league, 2024 7th round pick Tatum Bethune, who played just 52 snaps as a rookie, and some former undrafted free agents who have never played a snap. Warner is one of the best and more durable linebackers in the league and Winters at least has potential, but depth is a big concern at this position, particularly if Winters is unable to make good on his upside.

Grade: B+

Secondary

I mentioned earlier that the 49ers did not retain Chavarius Ward this off-season, after he had a 56.2 PFF grade across 694 snaps last season. The 49ers also did not bring back Isaac Yiadom, who was also mediocre with a 59.5 PFF grade across 488 snaps. In their absence, the 49ers will be expecting more out of 2024 2nd round pick Renaldo Green, who flashed potential with a 69.2 PFF grade across 675 snaps as a rookie and who should be able to translate that into a slightly larger role in 2025, now as a full-time starter opposite fellow holdover Deommodore Lenoir, who had a 67.3 PFF grade across 922 snaps in 15 games last season. 

A fifth round pick in 2021, Lenoir took a couple years to develop, struggling with a 57.1 PFF grade across 238 snaps as a rookie and continuing to struggle in a bigger role in his second season in the league with a 55.9 PFF grade across 887 snaps, before breaking out as a starter with a 72.5 PFF grade across 981 snaps in his third season in the league in 2023, which he then carried into 2024. He should remain a solid starter this season, still only in his age 26 season.

Green and Lenoir should be a solid starting duo, but the third cornerback role is a bit of a question mark. Free agent addition Tre Brown is probably the favorite for the job and the 2021 fourth round pick wasn’t bad in a similar role with a 62.8 PFF grade across 603 snaps in 2023, but he has played just 566 snaps in his other three seasons in the league combined, so he’s not the most proven option. His biggest competition for the job will be third round rookie Upton Stout, who played at a high level at a small school at Western Kentucky, but who lacks elite athleticism to make up for his lack of size and, as a result, could struggle to translate his game to the NFL. The 49ers also have Darrell Luter, a 2023 5th round pick who has played just 67 snaps in his career, and Tre Avery, a 2022 undrafted free agent who has played just 651 snaps over the past three seasons with the Titans and who was not tendered as a restricted free agent this off-season.

The 49ers also didn’t retain Talanoa Hufanga this off-season and he also didn’t contribute in much of a positive way last season, in an injury plagued season in which he had a mediocre 57.8 PFF grade across just 308 snaps in seven games. Malik Mustapha, a 2024 4th round pick, had already taken his starting job even before Hufanga wasn’t re-signed and had a 63.9 PFF grade across 755 snaps as a rookie, so he looks like a solid starter long-term, though in the short-term he is questionable for the start of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL. If he misses time or isn’t the same right away when he returns, the 49ers would likely turn to free agent acquisition Jason Pinnock. 

Pinnock has made 32 starts over the past two seasons, but has been inconsistent, with a 67.8 PFF grade in 2023, but a 54.5 PFF grade in 2024. He’s not a bad reserve option and spot starter, but the 49ers are definitely hoping Mustapha can return sooner rather than later. The 49ers also signed Richie Grant this off-season, a 2021 2nd round pick who started 32 games for the Falcons between the 2022 and 2023 season, but who was also inconsistent, with a 64.9 PFF grade in 2022 and a 51.5 PFF grade in 2023, before being benched and playing just 165 snaps in 2024. Like Pinnock, Grant is an option to start in Mustapha’s absence, but would be best as a reserve.

Ji’Ayir Brown is locked into one of the starting safety jobs. A 2023 3rd round pick, Brown flashed a lot of potential in limited action as a rookie with a 77.9 PFF grade across 396 snaps and, while he couldn’t quite translate that into a larger role in 2024, he still wasn’t bad with a 64.8 PFF grade across 886 snaps and, now in his third season in the league, he has the upside to take a step forward. He should at least be a capable starter, with the upside to develop into an above average starter. This isn’t a great secondary, but, even with some off-season losses, they aren’t really any worse in the secondary than they were a year ago. 

Grade: B-

Kicker

The 49ers used a third round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on kicker Jake Moody, but he has been a huge disappointment thus far, costing the 49ers 3.71 points below average as a rookie and then plummeting to 12.2 points below average in 2024, third worst in the NFL. The 49ers did not bring in another kicker this off-season, so they are giving Moody another chance and he could be better than a year ago, but he also figures to be on a pretty short leash and could be replaced with a free agent mid-season if he struggles. 

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The 49ers won just six games last season, but they were much better than their record suggested, ranking 2nd in yards per play differential and 5th in first down rate differential, which are both much more productive year-to-year than a team’s win-loss record, and they did that despite being by far the most injury plagued team in the league. The 49ers seemingly lost a lot in free agency this off-season, but the majority of the players they lost this off-season either missed significant chunks of last season or did not play at a high level. Most of the core from the team who made the Super Bowl two seasons ago is still there and, while this team isn’t as good overall as they were two years ago, they’re still much more talented than you would think if you just looked at their record last season and the off-season they had. They also go from having arguably the toughest schedule in the league last season to arguably the easiest this season. They should win among the most games in the NFC this season.

Prediction: 15-2, 1st in NFC West

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick

Detroit Lions (13-2) at San Francisco 49ers (6-9)

These two teams met in the NFC Championship game last season, with the 49ers narrowly pulling out the victory at home, but things have gone very differently for these two teams since then, as the Lions have arguably been even better than last season, currently sitting as the #1 overall seed in the NFC, while the 49ers have fallen out of the playoffs completely, officially getting eliminated with last week’s loss in Miami, which dropped them to 6-9. However, these two teams aren’t that far apart statistically, as the 49ers rank 5th at +2.69% in first down rate differential and 3rd at +1.06 in yards per play differential, which are much more predictive than win/loss record, while the Lions rank 2nd at +5.11% in first down rate differential and 6th at +0.54 in yards per play differential. 

The 49ers have a lot of injuries, missing seven week 1 starters, including key players like wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, left tackle Trent Williams, right tackle Colton McKivitz, and interior defender Javon Hargrave. They’re particularly banged up on the offensive line, where they aren’t just missing Williams, McKivitz, and left guard Aaron Banks, but also their backups at left tackle and left guard, and they are down to their fourth string running back as well. However, the Lions have a ton of injuries as well, also missing seven week 1 starters, and they only have a 3.5-point edge in my roster rankings, so we’re getting good value with the 49ers as 3.5-point home underdogs, with my calculated line at Detroit -1.5, crossing the key number of three (1 in 6 games are decided by three points exactly).

In a lot of ways, this 49ers’ team reminds me of their 2020 team. A year after losing the Super Bowl, the 2020 San Francisco 49ers led the league in adjusted games lost to injury and finished 6-10, despite finishing the season 4th in schedule adjusted first down rate differential. After that team seemed to bottom out late in the season, they won by eight points as 5-point underdogs in Arizona in week 16, against a team that was 8-6 coming into that game, and then in week 17 they lost by three as 7-point underdogs against the Seahawks, who came into that game at 11-4. I think this team will fare similarly well in this rematch with the Lions this week, which they should be focused for, even after being eliminated. They have at least a decent chance to pull the upset, but, even if they don’t, they have a great chance of keeping it close and covering, as 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer.

Detroit Lions 24 San Francisco 49ers 23

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2024 Week 15 NFL Pick

Los Angeles Rams (7-6) at San Francisco 49ers (6-7)

Both of these teams had impressive results last week. The Rams pulled the upset over the Bills, who are one of the best teams in the league, winning by a final score of 44-42. The 49ers faced a much easier opponent in the Chicago Bears, but blew them out convincingly, winning 38-13, while outgaining them by 4.29 yards per play and converting first downs at a 8.56% higher rate. Of those two results, the Rams’ looks much less fluky. Last week’s victory was the Rams’ sixth in eight games, including victories over the Rams and Seahawks, in addition to that win over the Bills. Meanwhile the 49ers’ win snapped a three game losing streak, including two straight losses by 25+ points, one of which came just one week prior against the same Bills team that the Rams defeated last week.

Injuries are the primary reason for these two teams generally heading in the opposite direction. Last week was only the Rams’ second game all season with their expected starting five offensive linemen all healthy at the same time, while their recent stretch of strong play largely coincides with the return of their two stud wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to the lineup in their week 8 victory over the Vikings. Overall, the Rams are one of the healthiest teams in the league right now, as none of the players who are expected to miss this game with injury being key players, with cornerback Cobie Durant, a decent starter, being their most notable absence. That kind of health simply was not the case for this team for most of the season.

For the 49ers, the situation is very different. Among others, the 49ers are most notably missing running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, left tackle Trent Williams, and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, and potentially defensive end Nick Bosa, all of whom were among the best players in the league at their respective positions during the 49ers’ run to the Super Bowl last week. Bosa’s return would be big and it seems like the 49ers will get back linebacker Dre Greenlaw for the first time this season, but Bosa could be on the wrong side of questionable having gotten in just one limited practice this week after missing the past three games and it remains to be seen how much of an impact Greenlaw will make in his first game back from a torn achilles.

The 49ers have been the better team statistically this season, with a first down rate differential of +3.07% and a yards per play differential of +1.27, as opposed to 1.15% and -0.34 respectively for the Rams, but in their current injury situations, these two teams are about even in my roster rankings. Despite that, the 49ers are favored by a full field goal at home in this game, so we’re getting some line value with the Rams. It’s not enough for the Rams to be worth betting, but if Nick Bosa ends up missing his fourth straight game and the line doesn’t move, I would strongly consider a bet on the Rams.

San Francisco 49ers 24 Los Angeles Rams 23

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +3

Confidence: Low

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2024 Week 6 NFL Pick

San Francisco 49ers (2-3) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2)

Both of these teams lost in surprising fashion last week, the 49ers as 7.5-point home favorites against the Cardinals and the Seahawks as 7-point home favorites against the Giants, but both teams were in a bad spot, with this much more important matchup on deck in just four days on Thursday Night Football (favorites cover at a 44.0% rate before Thursday Night Football). The 49ers also could have easily won if they didn’t lose their kicker to an injury mid-game, while the Seahawks easily could have won if not for a blocked field goal that was returned for a touchdown. 

Even including last week’s disappointing results in a bad spot, both teams have impressive numbers in terms of yards per play differential and first down rate differential, which are much more predictive long-term than win/loss record. The 49ers are +0.72 in yards per play differential and +5.41% in first down rate differential, while the Seahawks are +0.86 in yards per play differential and +5.71% in first down rate differential. However, these two teams are not as even as that would suggest, for several reasons.

For one, the 49ers have faced a much tougher schedule. While both teams have faced the Patriots, the 49ers have also faced the Jets, Vikings, Rams, and Cardinals, while the Seahawks have faced the Broncos, Dolphins, Lions, and Giants. The 49ers also have a much more talented roster in general, especially with the Seahawks missing talented cornerback Riq Woolen with injury, and, in the long run, the 49ers should be the significantly better team, possessing a seven point edge in my roster rankings. Given all of that, I think this line, favoring the 49ers by 3.5 points on the road, is about right. 

I am taking the Seahawks, but only because betting on 3.5-point favorites is not a winning proposition, as they cover the spread only 48.0% of the time. Games are decided by three points or fewer about 1 out of 4 times, with 1 out of 6 being decided by exactly a field goal, meaning that a line of 3.5 is actually much higher than most realize; in real probability terms it’s closer to 5.5 or 6 than it is to 3. As a result, odds makers will often use 3.5 to trap bettors into betting the favorite, as bettors don’t realize how high the line actually is. The most likely outcome of this game is a 49ers’ victory by a field goal, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the 49ers covered this spread.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Seattle Seahawks 24

Pick against the spread: Seattle +3.5

Confidence: None

San Francisco 49ers 2024 NFL Season Preview

Quarterback

The 49ers were probably the most talented team in the league overall last season and arguably have been for the past two seasons. They had PFF’s top overall team grade and had nine players who played at least 700 snaps and finished with a PFF grade above 80, all of whom remain on the team for 2024, though there is one potential exception that I will get to later. The 49ers have been able to keep all of this talent under the cap by being aggressive in how they structure their contracts, using big signing bonuses to borrow future cap space, and by having the lowest paid quarterback in the league in Brock Purdy, who has been a revelation for them over the past two seasons, despite being the last pick in the draft in 2022. 

The 49ers have seven players who have cap hits higher than 10 million in 2024, a list that is almost identical to the list of nine players who played more than 700 snaps and had PFF grades above 80, with the only two players from that list of nine who don’t have a cap hit above 10 million being the cheap Brock Purdy and running back Christian McCaffrey, who just signed a new extension to lower his cap hit for 2024. The 49ers have yet to win it all, but they could have easily at least made the Super Bowl in 2022 if Purdy didn’t get hurt in the NFC Championship and last year they took the Chiefs to overtime in the Super Bowl and came within a couple plays of winning the game in regulation. With their entire core from a year ago returning for 2024, the 49ers should be considered one of the top teams in the league and the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl again.

As I mentioned, none of this would be possible without Brock Purdy exceeding expectations the way he has, completing 69.4% of his passes for an average of 9.64 YPA, 31 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in 21 career regular season starts, while going 17-4 in those games. Purdy has a lot of help around him, both in terms of talented supporting players and a great scheme coached by Kyle Shanahan, but Purdy has played well in his own right, posting a 76.6 PFF grade as a rookie and then jumping to a 88.4 PFF grade in his second season in the league in 2023, 4th in the NFL among quarterbacks. Still only in his age 25 season, Purdy could keep improving and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain one of the better quarterbacks in the league for years to come. 

Purdy does only have one more year left before he’s eligible for a massive pay raise on a long-term extension, which will make it harder for the 49ers to keep talent around him, especially with how aggressive they have been in borrowing future cap space, already about 26 million over the 2025 cap, but Purdy seems like he could develop into the kind of quarterback who could lead this team at least on deep playoff runs even if his supporting cast isn’t quite as good in the future. The 2024 season will probably be the 49ers’ best chance to win a Super Bowl for a while, given Purdy’s contract status and the long-term financial situation of this team, but they should remain competitive for years to come with Purdy under center, Shanahan calling plays, and numerous talented players still in their primes that the 49ers will prioritize keeping long-term.

Purdy will be backed up by veteran journeyman Josh Dobbs, who the 49ers signed this off-season. Calling him a journeyman is putting it lightly, as the 2017 4th round pick is already on his 8th team, including his 6th team since the start of the 2022 season, but he hasn’t been bad when he’s had to play over the past two seasons, completing 62.3% of his passes for an average of 5.93 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 14 starts. If Purdy suffered a significant injury that kept him out for a long-time, the 49ers’ Super Bowl chances would go way down, but Dobbs could hold down the fort if needed for a few games without this team completely tanking. With one of the better quarterbacks in the league and a capable backup, the 49ers are in good shape at the most important position in the game.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned earlier, there is one key player from a year ago who could potentially not be on the roster for 2024 and that’s wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, who is owed 14.124 million in the final year of his rookie deal and wants to be traded if the 49ers don’t give him what he wants on a long-term extension. The 49ers would probably be able to lower Aiyuk’s cap hit for 2024 if they extended him, even on a deal that made him one of the highest paid wide receivers in the league, but that would give them another big contract to fit under the cap long-term and the 49ers at the very least seem to want to get the best deal possible in re-signing Aiyuk, given the state of their long-term cap situation and that Brock Purdy will be due a huge extension in a year.

A first round pick in 2020, Aiyuk has developed into one of the best wide receivers in the league, going from a 60/748/5 slash line with 1.73 yards per route run as a rookie, to a 56/816/5 slash line with 1.68 yards per route run in his second season in the league, to a 78/1015/8 slash line with 1.91 yards per route run in his third season in the league, to a 75/1342/7 slash line with 3.01 yards per route run last season, and he’s still only in his age 26 season and should remain in his prime for several years. 

The 49ers do have another talented wide receiver in Deebo Samuel, who has averaged 2.29 yards per route run in his career, including a 60/892/7 slash line and 2.32 yards per route run in 2023, and they used their first round pick in this year’s draft on another talented wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, so they may view Aiyuk as expendable. In fact, they probably wouldn’t have drafted Pearsall if they were planning on keeping Aiyuk long-term regardless of the price, as the 49ers had more pressing needs they could have addressed. However, Pearsall is raw, Samuel is often injured, missing time in all five seasons in the league, with 17 games missed total, and the 49ers are in win now mode, so the best case scenario for them would be to keep Aiyuk at his current salary and then franchise tag and trade him next off-season before the draft, moving forward with Samuel and Pearsall long-term and avoiding another huge long-term financial commitment. 

Aiyuk seems pretty committed to holding out until he gets his long-term extension, but he is still leaving a lot of money on the table if he sits out the 2024 season and sitting out the whole year would prevent him from being a free agent next off-season, so the 49ers do hold the leverage in this standoff. The most likely scenario is Aiyuk returning for 2024, with or without an extension, to play alongside Samuel and Pearsall, which would probably be the most talented wide receiver trio in the league, but this is definitely a situation to keep an eye on.

Jauan Jennings was the #3 receiver last season and could remain in that role this season if Aiyuk is traded or if Pearsall is too raw to make a significant impact in year one. Jennings has only averaged 1.31 yards per route run in his career, with slash lines of 24/282/5, 35/416/1, and 19/265/1 over the past three seasons, but the 49ers still kept him on a 2-year, 15.39 million dollar deal this off-season, so they clearly value him, even with all of the other wide receiver talent the 49ers have on this roster. That contract is another sign that the 49ers don’t plan on keeping Aiyik long-term, as that would be a lot of money to pay a #4 receiver.

The 49ers also have a dominant tight end in George Kittle, who plays at a high level as a receiver and a blocker. He has finished above 80 on PFF in six straight seasons, averaging 2.46 yards per route run and a 85/1180/7 slash line per 17 games, including 2.22 yards per route run and a 65/1020/6 slash line on just 90 targets last season. Kittle is going into his age 31 season and has missed 16 games in the past five seasons, which are both concerns, but the 49ers have enough talent that they can survive him being out for a few games, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does decline, he’s starting from such a high base point that he should remain one of the best tight ends in the league regardless. 

Charlie Woerner was their #2 tight end last season, playing 313 snaps, but he left this off-season and was replaced by veteran free agent Logan Thomas. Thomas is a decent pass catcher, with 184 catches and a 1.03 yards per route run average in 54 games over the past four seasons, and should be an upgrade over Woerner in that aspect, as Woerner has 11 catches and a 0.55 yards per route run average in four seasons in the league. However, Woerner is a much better run blocker, which is mostly what the 49ers need their #2 tight end for, so Thomas is probably a downgrade overall from Woerner, especially since he’s now going into his age 33 season. The 49ers also have 2023 3rd round pick Cameron Latu as a backup tight end option, but he missed his entire rookie season with injury and is a complete unknown at this point. This is the best receiving corps in the league, assuming Brandon Aiyuk is on the team this season.

Grade: A

Running Backs

Feature back Christian McCaffrey is also heavily involved in the passing game, with a 67/564/7 slash line and a 1.35 yards per route run average, but that was actually his lowest yards per route run average and his lowest yardage total for a healthy season in his career. McCaffrey has a career 1.71 yards per route run average and had slash lines of 80/651/5, 108/874/6, 116/1005/4, and 85/741/5 in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2022 respectively, but his 2024 receiving production will probably be around where it was in 2023 again, as there are just so many receiving options on this 49ers offense that someone is going to end up with less than they would have elsewhere.

Limiting McCaffrey’s passing game usage also helps them keep him fresh to carry the load as a runner and he excelled with 1,459 yards and 14 touchdowns on 272 carries last season (5.36 YPC), ranking 1st in the NFL in rushing yardage, 4th in rushing touchdowns, and 1st in yards per carry among eligible running backs. In seven seasons in the league, McCaffrey has averaged 4.77 YPC with 52 touchdowns on 1,297 carries, even though he spent most of the early part of his career on bad offenses in Carolina, and he’s even more dangerous now on a 49ers offense that has so many other threats to worry about. He did miss 23 games due to injury from 2020-2021, but has otherwise not missed a game in his career, so it’s not fair to call him an injury prone player. In his age 28 season with 339 career touches, a potential decline for McCaffrey is a concern, but even if he isn’t quite as good as he is in the past, he should still be one of the best running backs in the league. 

McCaffrey rarely comes off the field, playing 812 snaps last season (4th in the NFL among running backs), despite sitting out a meaningless week 18 game, so depth isn’t needed that much behind him, but when McCaffrey does need a breather or if he misses time with injury, the 49ers would likely turn either to incumbent backup Elijah Mitchell or to 4th round rookie Isaac Guerendo. Mitchell saw 81 touches as the backup last season, 16 of which came in that meaningless week 18 game that McCaffrey didn’t play. 

Mitchell has an impressive 4.66 YPC average on 327 carries in three seasons in the league, 207 of which came when he was the lead back in 2021 prior to McCaffrey’s arrival, but he’s very injury prone, missing at least six games in every season, with 24 total games missed in three seasons in the league, and he’s not much of a pass catcher, with just 0.70 yards per route run in his career. Guerendo will probably be behind him on the depth chart, but if Mitchell misses time, Guerendo would likely become the #2 back and, if McCaffrey misses time, Guerendo, who caught 22 passes in his final collegiate season, would probably be the passing down complement to Mitchell. Led by arguably the best running back in the league, with capable depth behind him, the 49ers are in great shape at the running back position.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

As I mentioned earlier, the 49ers probably would not have drafted Ricky Pearsall in the first round if they were planning on keeping Aiyuk long-term regardless of the cost. Some viewed that pick as a luxury pick that the 49ers could afford to make even if they were keeping Aiyuk, but, as talented as the 49ers’ roster is, they did have more pressing needs to address. One of those was the offensive line, which played pretty well last season and returns all five starters from a year ago, but three of those five starters are on the wrong side of 30, so an infusion of young talent was needed.

Left tackle Trent Williams was the best of the bunch, finishing with a 89.9 PFF grade in 15 starts, but he’s going into his age 36 season and could decline significantly soon, perhaps this season. Williams has finished above 70 on PFF in 13 straight seasons, a streak starting with his second season in the league in 2011, and he’s finished above 80 in all but one of those seasons, with five seasons above 90, including three straight as recently as 2020-2022, so even if he does decline significantly this season, he should remain at least an above average starter, but a significant decline from him would have a noticeable negative effect on the rest of this offense.

Center Jake Brendel is going into his age 32 season. The 2016 6th round pick only made three starts in his first six seasons in the league prior to becoming a full-time starter for the first time in 2022, but he’s made 34 starts over the past two seasons and hasn’t been bad, with PFF grades of 64.9 and 63.9. He doesn’t have much margin for error if he declines though, as he’s only a marginal starter at his best and would likely be a liability if he declined even a little. Right guard Jon Feliciano is also going into his age 32 season. He had a 81.2 PFF grade in 2023, but that was pretty out of character for him, as he’s only finished above 70 on PFF in one other season and that came in 2017 when he played just 124 snaps. 

Feliciano has also only made 61 starts in nine seasons in the league, while exceeding 7 starts in a season in only twice. Last season was not one of those seasons, so his strong performance came in a pretty limited sample size, as he played just 478 snaps and made just 7 starts, starting the season on the bench and suffering multiple injuries after taking over the starting job. He’s a good fit for the 49ers blocking scheme, but given his age and his history, I would be surprised if he didn’t regress significantly in 2023. He should at least be available for more games this season though, which is a good thing because Spencer Burford, who started when Feliciano was on the bench or injured, struggled mightily with a 50.4 PFF grade across 846 snaps.

Left guard Aaron Banks is much younger, as the 2021 2nd round pick is only going into his age 27 season, but he’s been mediocre in two seasons as a starter, receiving a 62.7 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2022 and a 54.9 PFF grade in 14 starts in 2023. He came into the league with a lot of upside and he’s still relatively young, even if he is older than most 4th year players are, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he took a step forward in 2024, but that’s not a guarantee. The 49ers don’t have much choice but to start him either way, as their alternatives are very underwhelming. 

The aforementioned Spencer Burford is a 2022 6th round pick who has struggled even more over the past two seasons than Banks has and doesn’t have as much upside as Banks. Dominick Puni is a third round rookie who would probably struggle if forced to start for an extended period of time as a rookie. Ben Bartch has made 20 starts in four seasons in the league since being selected by the Jaguars in the 4th round in 2020, but he’s been middling at best and mostly mediocre when forced into action. Chris Hubbard has made 58 starts in 11 seasons in the league and can play both guard and tackle, but he’s also been middling at best and is now going into his age 33 season.

Right tackle Colton McKivitz is the only offensive line starter below 30 who played well for the 49ers last season, as the 2020 5th round pick is only going into his age 28 season and had a solid 65.1 PFF grade in 17 starts last season. He’s only a one-year starter though, playing just 439 snaps and making just five starts in three seasons in the league prior to last season. He could remain a solid starter in 2024, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if he regressed somewhat, given his lack of experience.

The 49ers also have a good young swing tackle in Jaylon Moore, a 2021 5th round pick who has made seven starts in three seasons in the league, while receiving PFF grades of 66.3 and 72.9 over the past two seasons. He’s relatively unproven and could struggle in an extended role, but he’s a solid option as far as swing tackles go. Overall, the 49ers’ offensive line looks likely to be worse than a year ago. They bring back all five starters, but four of them could be worse than a year ago, including three who are in their age 32 season or older.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position is another one the 49ers could have addressed early in the draft, after losing Arik Armstead, their biggest off-season loss. Armstead only played 509 snaps in 12 games last season, but he had a 81.9 PFF grade, excelling as an interior pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate. He was going into his age 31 season and had a history of injuries, which is why the 49ers released him to save 18.26 million, but he will still be missed. To replace Armstead, the 49ers traded two late round picks for Maliek Collins and the 2 years and 23 million remaining on his contract. He’s younger than Armstead, only going into his age 29 season, but he will almost definitely be a downgrade, even if he doesn’t miss significant time like Armstead did last season.

Collins is an above average pass rusher, with pass rush grades in the 70s on PFF in four of the past five seasons, a stretch in which he has had 25.5 sacks, 53 hits, and a 8.2% pressure rate in 119 games, but he also finished below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in four of those five seasons, while maxing out with a 65.4 overall grade from PFF. He should remain a similar player in 2024, above average as a pass rusher, below average as a run defender, and middling at best overall.

The 49ers also lost Javon Kinlaw in free agency this off-season, watching him sign with the Jets on a 1-year, 7.25 million dollar deal. He struggled mightily against the run, but was at least a good pass rusher with 3.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 9.6% pressure rate, while his replacement Jordan Elliott, who the 49ers signed to a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal, isn’t good in any aspect of the game, finishing with PFF grades of 55.3, 41.6, 40.4, and 46.5 on snap counts of 307, 464, 703, and 440 in four seasons in the league since going in the 3rd round in 2020. Equally bad as a run defender and a pass rusher, Elliott has just 5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 4.6% pressure rate in 66 career games. Elliott is now in his age 27 season, so it’s unlikely he has any untapped potential and he figures to continue struggling.

The 49ers do at least bring back Javon Hargrave, who had a 73.9 PFF grade across 632 snaps last season, excelling as a pass rusher with 7 sacks, 7 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate, while struggling somewhat against the run. That’s in line with how he’s played throughout his career, finishing above 60 on PFF as a pass rusher in all eight seasons in the league, but finishing below 60 in run defense five times. He’s been especially good as a pass rusher the past five seasons, with 34 sacks, 29 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate in 127 games. Unfortunately, he’s going into his age 31 season and, while he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, it wouldn’t be a surprise if his decline started in 2024. He should remain at least an above average pass rusher, but he might not be as good as he has been in recent years, while his run defense could get even worse.

The 49ers also bring back Kevin Givens, who played 398 snaps last season, although he’s an underwhelming option even as a reserve, finishing last season with a 56.9 PFF grade, his 5th straight season below 60 on PFF to begin his career, since going undrafted in 2019. Mediocre as a run defender and a pass rusher, Givens has just 4.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 5.9% pressure rate in 57 career games and should continue struggling in 2024. The 49ers have a great interior pass rush duo of Javon Hargrave and Maliek Collins, but both figure to struggle against the run, while their reserve options of Jordan Elliott and Kevin Givens aren’t good in any aspect of the game. With Arik Armstead gone and Javon Hargrave aging, this position group should be significantly worse than a year ago.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

The edge defender position is another spot where the 49ers lost a key player this off-season and could have replaced him in the draft, but didn’t, as they lost Chase Young to the Saints on a 1-year, 13 million dollar deal. Young only spent half the season with the 49ers, after being acquired from the Commanders at the trade deadline for a third round pick, but he had a solid 68.6 PFF grade across 328 snaps, playing the run decently and adding 2.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate in 9 games. The 49ers also lost Clelin Ferrell this off-season and he was decent with a 60.7 PFF grade on 471 snaps, while totaling 3.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate in 17 games.

With no premium draft picks being used on the position, Young and Ferrell will be replaced by free agents Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos, neither of whom are likely to be as good as Young was last season. Floyd was an above average edge defender in his prime, exceeding 60 on PFF in seven straight seasons to begin his career, through the 2022 season, but he fell to 56.3 across 576 snaps last season and is now heading into his age 32 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. He was still a solid pass rusher with 10.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate last season, but he struggled against the run and missed a bunch of tackles, so he’s not as complete of a player as Chase Young was, even before you take his age into account.

Yetur Gross-Matos is much younger than Floyd, only going into his age 26 season, and he has upside as a 2020 2nd round pick, but he has been underwhelming through four seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 54.7, 63.8, 51.2, and 65.4 respectively on snap counts of 377, 349, 847, and 465 respectively. He isn’t a bad run defender, but he only has 13 sacks, 18 hits, and a 7.2% pressure rate in 55 career games and, unless he takes a big step forward in 2024, he figures to remain an underwhelming option.

The 49ers do still have Nick Bosa, who had a 92.7 PFF grade across 821 snaps last season. That was the best single season grade of his 5-year career, but he’s far from a one-year wonder, also receiving PFF grades of 86.7, 88.3, and 90.9 on snap counts of 777, 840, and 745 in 2019, 2021, and 2022 respectively, with a lost season due to injury in 2020 in between. He’s also not injury prone, only missing one game due to injury in his other four seasons combined, aside from his season ending injury in 2020. 

In total, Bosa has 53.5 sacks, 92 hits, and a 16.2% pressure rate in 68 career games, with 10.5 sacks, 24 hits, and a 16.8% pressure rate in 17 games last season and, as good as he is as a pass rusher, he is equally good against the run. Still very much in the prime of his career in his age 27 season, Bosa is on the short list of top Defensive Player of the Year candidates, an award he won in 2022. He elevates this position group significantly by himself.

Drake Jackson also figures to play more snaps then he did a year ago, when he suffered a season ending injury after 199 snaps in 8 games, which is why the 49ers went out and acquired Chase Young. Jackson was a second round pick in 2022, but has yet to live up to that, playing just 514 snaps in 23 games in two seasons in the league, while receiving middling PFF grades of 64.6 and 62.1. He’s a solid run stopper, but only has 6 sacks, 4 hits, and a 7.8% pressure rate thus far in his career. He could take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2024 though, only going into his age 23 season. Still, this is an overall underwhelming position group outside of Nick Bosa, but Bosa is so good that it would be hard for this group to be bad overall as long as he is healthy.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

In addition to Nick Bosa, the 49ers also have a dominant defender in their linebacking corps, as Fred Warner finished last season with a 90.2 PFF grade across 982 snaps. That was the best season of his career, but he also has had PFF grades of 88.6, 75.2, and 83.7 across snap counts of 973, 977, and 1,026 over the three seasons prior to last season, so, even if he isn’t as good as he was last season, he should still remain one of the best linebackers in the league, still very much in his prime in his age 28 season. 

Fellow starting linebacker Dre Greenlaw is coming off of a solid season in his own right, with a 69.3 PFF grade on 848 snaps. That’s not out of character for him, exceeding 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, maxing out with an 81.2 PFF grade on 850 snaps in 2022. He’s also still in his prime in his age 27 season. Unfortunately, he tore his achilles in the Super Bowl and could miss a big chunk of the 2024 season and/or not be his best self when he returns. 

Because of Greenlaw’s injury, the 49ers signed veteran De’Vondre Campbell to a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal in free agency. In his prime, Campbell was one of the best linebackers in the league, receiving PFF grades of 84.7 and 75.6 in 2021 and 2022, but he fell to a 65.3 PFF grade in 2023 and is now going into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him. He should still be an adequate replacement for Greenlaw while he is out or not at his best and, if Greenlaw can return to form at some point in 2024, Campbell is more than qualified to be the third linebacker in base packages.

If Greenlaw misses time, it’s unclear who the third linebacker in base packages would be and all of the 49ers’ options are underwhelming. Veterans Ezekiel Turner and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles are both career special teamers who have played just 194 snaps in six seasons in the league and 468 snaps in five seasons in the league, while 2023 6th round pick Dee Winters struggled mightily on 61 snaps as a rookie. 

The 49ers also have 2023 7th round pick Jalen Graham, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and 7th round pick Tatum Bethune, who is likely to struggle as a rookie. Fortunately, the third linebacker job is just a part-time role and the 49ers would only need a replacement until Greenlaw returns from injury. With Warner, Greenlaw, and Campbell as their top-3 linebackers, this is an impressive group, even with Greenlaw’s injury and their lack of depth outside of their top-3 taken into account.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The 49ers also got a dominant season out of top cornerback Chavarius Ward, who had an 82.6 PFF grade across 931 snaps in 2023. An undrafted free agent in 2018, Ward spent the first four seasons of his career in Kansas City and was a solid starter, receiving PFF grades in the 60s in all four seasons while starting 41 of the 43 games he played across his final three seasons with the Chiefs, but he took off when he joined the 49ers on a 3-year, 40.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, receiving a 83.2 PFF grade across 959 snaps in 2022, before repeating that level of play again in 2023. Ward’s contract, which once looked like an overpay, now looks like a steal, as he’s only the 11th highest paid cornerback in the league in terms of average annual salary. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Ward should remain a dominant cornerback in 2024 and is unlikely to regress to his pre-2022 form.

Deommodore Lenoir was the #2 cornerback last season and had a pretty solid season, with a 72.5 PFF grade across 981 snaps. He’s a one-year wonder, as the 2021 5th round pick had PFF grades of 57.1 and 55.9 across snap counts of 238 and 887 in the first two seasons of his career, so he could regress in 2024, but he’s also only going into his age 25 season and could have permanently turned a corner as an above average starter, so it’s far from a guarantee that he will regress this season.

Ambry Thomas (482 snaps) and Isaiah Oliver (503 snaps) also saw roles at cornerback last season and were solid with PFF grades of 71.5 and 67.6 respectively. Oliver is no longer with the team, but Thomas remains and will compete with second round rookie Renardo Green and free agent acquisition Isaac Yiadom for the #3 cornerback job. Green has a high upside long-term, but Thomas and Yiadom could be better options in the short-term. 

Both Thomas and Yiadom are one-year wonders though. Thomas was a third round pick in 2021, struggling mightily with a 46.1 PFF grade on 334 snaps as a rookie and then playing just 41 snaps in his second season in the league. He’s still only in his age 25 season and has upside, but he still didn’t play that big of a snap count as a part-time player in 2023 and could be overmatched in a bigger role in 2024, so he comes with a lot of downside.

Yiadom, meanwhile, was also a third round pick, back in 2018, but he struggled mightily with PFF grades in the 50s on an average of 467 snaps per season in his first three seasons in the league and then played just 98 snaps between 2021-2022, before surprisingly breaking out with a 81.1 PFF grade across 517 snaps with the Saints in 2023. He probably won’t be that good again in 2024, especially if he plays an expanded role, but even if he regresses significantly, he could remain a solid third cornerback. Yiadom, Thomas, and the rookie Green all come with big downsides, but they also have big upsides and, overall, they provide great depth as the 49ers’ 3rd, 4th, and 5th cornerbacks, in some order.

At safety, Tashaun Gipson and Talanoa Hufanga were the starters to begin last season and both had impressive seasons, with PFF grades of 73.6 and 70.5 respectively. Hufanga suffered a season ending injury down the stretch and was limited to 577 snaps in 10 games on the season, but his replacement, 2023 3rd round pick Ji’Ayir Brown, played at an even higher level in his absence, finishing with a 77.9 PFF grade across 396 snaps. Gipson wasn’t re-signed this off-season, so Brown will start opposite Hufanga.

Brown is a projection to a season-long starter role and might not be as good as he was in limited action last season, but, even if he isn’t, he could still be a solid starter and he has the upside to be more than that. Hufanga, meanwhile, was a season-long starter in 2022 and had a 68.8 PFF grade so, assuming he’s over the injury that ended his 2023 season, he should be a solid starter in 2024. Hufanga, 2021 5th round pick, is also still only in his age 25 season and could have the upside for more. Even after losing Tashaun Gipson this off-season, the 49ers still should have a solid safety duo in Ji’Ayir Brown and Talanoa Hufanga.

Depth is a concern though, without Gipson. The 49ers drafted Malik Mustapha in the 4th round this year, but he’s probably too raw to start for an extended period of time in case of an injury to Brown or Hufanga. George Odum would be the veteran option, but he’s mostly been a special teamer in his career and has been middling at best on an average of 177 snaps per season in six seasons in the league. He’s also now going into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him. Perhaps the 49ers could move one of their cornerbacks to safety in case of an injury, as their cornerback room is much deeper. Overall, this is a talented secondary that should be above average.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The 49ers have come very close to winning it all the past two seasons and bring back almost their entire core from the past two seasons. They might not necessarily be the favorites to win it all, but they’re high up on the short list of teams who could win it all. Much is dependent on the Brandon Aiyuk contract/holdout situation, but it seems likely that he will suit up for the 49ers one way or another this season.

Update: Aiyuk has been re-signed long-term. The 49ers still have a concerning situation with Trent Williams wanting his contract redone, but it seems like the 49ers will resolve that sooner rather than later.

Prediction: 15-2, 1st in NFC West

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers: 2023 Week 3 NFL Pick

New York Giants (1-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-0)

The Giants’ season got off to a disastrous start when they were blown out at home by the Cowboys 40-0 in week 1 and then subsequently went down 20-0 at halftime on the road in week 2 against a Cardinals team that is one of the worst in the league. However, the Giants rebounded in the second half of that Cardinals game to come from behind and win, averting a total catastrophe and salvaging a 1-1 record out of the first two weeks of the season.

Things don’t get easier for the Giants this week though, as they have to go on the road on a short week and face a 49ers team that is one of the best in the league. Teams typically struggle on the road on a short week against a superior non-divisional opponent, going 28-46 ATS and it’s even worse when a team is underdogs of more than a touchdown (6-17 ATS), which the Giants are here. The Giants could also be extra tired after staging their comeback last week, as underdogs are just 8-15 ATS the week after coming back from a deficit of 13+ after the third quarter and winning in a game in which they were favored.

This line is high at 10.5, but the 49ers enter this game 2nd in DVOA, while the Giants rank 32nd. That’s only a two game sample size, but the 49ers entered the season as a vastly superior team to the Giants, expected by the oddsmakers to win three more games than the Giants (10.5 vs. 7.5), and based on what we’ve seen thus far this season, that gap has only widened. Dating back to last season, 11 of the 49ers’ 15 wins have come by 11 points or more, so they’re clearly capable of blowing inferior teams out, especially at home, where 7 of those 11 blowout wins have come.

The 49ers also have a massive edge health wise, almost 20 points better in SIC score (92.2 vs. 73.7), as they are close to full strength, while the Giants are missing top offensive weapon Saquon Barkley and top offensive lineman Andrew Thomas, among other smaller injury absences. I don’t love that this line has gone above 10, jumping to 10.5 from 9.5 on the early line last week, but the Giants’ near loss to the Cardinals last week without Andrew Thomas and the subsequent loss of Saquon Barkley late in last week’s game justifies that line movement. I wouldn’t go crazy with this bet, but everything suggests this will be a very lopsided affair, so I don’t mind laying the 10.5 points.

San Francisco 49ers 27 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -10.5

Confidence: Medium