Quarterback

The 49ers were probably the most disappointing team in the league last season, going from a 12-win season and a Super Bowl appearance in 2023 to being seen as one of the early favorites in 2024 to finishing with a 6-11 record and in last place in their division. This off-season, the 49ers lost among the most key players of any team in the league, without replacing most of them. Despite that, I still like the 49ers’ chances for a bounce back season, for several reasons.

For one, the 49ers were statistically much better than their record suggested last season, as they finished the season 2nd in yards per play differential and 5th in first down rate differential, which are both much more predictive year-to-year than a team’s win-loss record. The 49ers did that despite having the most adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league last season, by a wide margin. In fact, there was a bigger gap between the 49ers and the second most injury plagued team in the league last season than there was between the second most injury plagued team and the 12th most injury plagued team.

The 49ers lost a lot this off-season, but many of the players they lost either missed significant time and/or had down years in 2024. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw missed all but 34 snaps due to injury last season. Interior defender Javon Hargrave was limited to 104 snaps in 3 games. Safety Talanoa Hufanga struggled with a 57.8 PFF grade in 304 snaps across 7 games after returning from injury. Cornerback Charvarius Ward missed five games and was not himself when on the field while dealing with tragedy in his personal life, finishing the season with just a 56.2 PFF grade. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel only missed two games, but was limited due to injury in numerous games, resulting in a career low 1.60 yards per route run average and a career low 70.9 PFF grade.

When the 49ers were at their best in 2023, they were led by nine players between their offense and defense who played at least 700 snaps and finished with a PFF grade above 80: quarterback Brock Purdy, running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle, left tackle Trent Williams, edge defender Nick Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner, and cornerback Charvarius Ward. In 2024, Purdy missed two games and did not seem to be himself when he returned, McCaffrey was not himself across 167 snaps in four games, Samuel and Ward missed time and were not themselves when on the field, as mentioned, Williams missed seven games, Aiyuk missed ten games, Kittle missed two games, Bosa missed three games, and Warner did not miss a game, but played through a broken bone in his leg for most of the season. 

Samuel and Ward are gone, Kittle and Williams are on the wrong side of 30 and could decline this season, and Aiyuk and McCaffrey still have significant injury concerns, but overall I would expect much more in 2025 out of those core players from the 49ers’ 2023 team than the 49ers got from them in 2024. The 49ers also drafted well in the 2024 NFL Draft, with second round pick cornerback Renaldo Green (69.2 PFF grade across 675 snaps), third round pick guard Dominick Puni (80.5 PFF grade across 1,078 snaps), and fourth round pick safety Malik Mustapha (63.9 PFF grade across 755 snaps) all showing a lot of promise as rookies, not to mention first round wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, who could take a step forward in year two. With those players added to the mix and healthier seasons from their core players from 2023, the 49ers still have a team that could compete in the NFC in 2025, assuming they don’t have the historically bad injury luck they had last season.

The biggest reason the 49ers had to let so many players leave this off-season was the fact that they owe quarterback Brocky Purdy a huge raise from his rookie deal. Purdy got a lot of criticism for the 49ers’ struggles last season and his TD/INT ratio noticeably declined from 31/11 to 20/12 between 2023 and 2024, but yards per attempt is much more predictive year-to-year than TD/INT ratio and he still ranked 3rd in yards per attempt (8.49), despite not having as good of a supporting cast as he had in years past and despite playing through injury in his final five starts of the season. 

Overall, Purdy finished the season with a PFF grade of 82.4 in 2024, 11th among quarterbacks, after posting a 88.4 PFF grade, 4th among quarterbacks, in his first full season as a starter in 2023. He has proven he can produce at a high level even without an elite supporting cast and that he can post MVP level production with an elite supporting cast, so he deserves a top quarterback contract, at least more than most of the quarterbacks who have gotten them recently, including Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, and possibly Jared Goff.

Purdy will be backed up this season by free agent signing Mac Jones. Jones is a bust as a former first round pick, completing 65.9% of his passes for an average of 6.75 YPA, 54 touchdowns, and 44 interceptions in 49 starts in four seasons in the league since being selected 15th overall in 2021, but he’s a solid backup, he came relatively cheaply (2-year, 8.41 million), and he is a good fit for the 49ers’ scheme. At the very least, he should be an upgrade over Brandon Allen and Josh Dobbs, who combined for 63.6% completion, 7.27 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in the absence of Purdy last season. The 49ers would likely still be in trouble if Purdy suffered a serious injury and Jones had to play for a significant period of time, but that’s true of almost every team and Jones is above average as far as backup options go.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The 49ers’ running backs were probably their position group that was hardest hit by injuries last season. Not only did Christian McCaffrey miss most of the season and disappoint in limited action when on the field, but top backup Elijah Mitchell missed all of the season and expected third string Jordan Mason, who surprised as the lead back in the absence of McCaffrey and Mitchell with 5.17 YPC on 153 carries, also missed five games, leaving the 49ers down to their 4th or even 5th string running back at times.

Mitchell and Mason were not brought back this off-season, but 2024 4th round pick Isaac Guerendo flashed potential as a rookie last season, with 5.00 YPC on 84 carries and 1.42 yards per route run as a receiver, and the 49ers also added Oregon’s Jordan James in the 5th round of this year’s draft, so their depth situation isn’t bad. Of course, if Christian McCaffrey does end up missing more time this time, it would be a huge blow to this offense even if their depth at the position isn’t bad. 

At his best, McCaffrey is the best all-purpose running back in the league, averaging 256 carries for 1,271 rushing yards (4.96 YPC) and 11 rushing touchdowns with an average 94/794/6 slash line and 1.69 yards per route run in his last four healthy seasons in 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023, but he has also been limited to 3 games, 7 games, and 4 games in 2020, 2021, and 2024 respectively, so the injury risk is obvious. Making matters worse, McCaffrey is now heading into his age 29 season with 1,871 career touches, which is a relatively advanced age with a relatively high career usage for a running back, which, not only could increase his injury risk, but could prevent him from being at his top form even when on the field. Ultimately, I would expect a lot more out of McCaffrey in 2025 than 2024, even if he’s not at his best, but the injury and age risk is obvious as well. 

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

With Deebo Samuel having a down year and Brandon Aiyuk missing all but seven games last season, Jauan Jennings surprisingly stepped up and had a career year with a 77/975/6 slash line and 2.26 yards per route run (14th among eligible wide receivers), after combining for just 78 catches, 963 yards, and 7 touchdowns across his first four seasons in the league from 2020-2023, when he averaged just 1.23 yards per route run. Jennings is a one-year wonder and might not be as efficient as he was a year ago, but Samuel is gone and Aiyuk could be out until mid-season as he recovers from a multi-ligament tear in his knee, so Aiyuk could see even more playing time than a year ago, when he ranked just 48th among wide receivers in routes run.

Ricky Pearsall, their first round pick in 2024, also figures to have a big role this season. He had an underwhelming rookie year with a 31/400/3 slash line on 1.31 yards per route run, but he has a valid excuse, missing the first six games of the season after an off-season gunshot wound, which likely led to him not being 100% all season even when he did play. Now in his second season in the league, he has the upside to take a big step forward. Jennings will probably lead 49ers wide receivers in production, but Pearsall probably has the highest upside of any of their options, aside from Aiyuk, who obviously has a serious injury concern.

When Aiyuk is not on the field, veteran free agent addition DeMarcus Robinson will likely be the 49ers’ #3 receiver behind Jennings and Pearsall. He’s an underwhelming option though, as the 505 receiving yards he had last season was the highest total of his 9-year career, a career in which he has averaged just 0.96 yards per route run, and now he is heading into his age 31 season, so he almost definitely is what he is at this point of his career and easily could regress and be even less effective than he has been throughout his career. He could face competition for his role from 2024 4th round pick Jacob Cowing, who played 106 nondescript snaps as a rookie, and 4th round rookie Jordan Watkins, but Robinson will likely be ahead of Cowing and Watkins on the depth chart and, even if he isn’t, it’s unlikely Cowing or Watkins would be any better.

Obviously the big question mark in this receiving corps is Aiyuk. In his last full season in 2023, Aiyuk was one of the best receivers in the league, totaling a 75/1342/7 slash line on just 105 targets, averaging 3.01 yards per route run, 3rd in the NFL among eligible wide receivers, and posting a 92.3 PFF grade, 2nd in the NFL among eligible wide receivers. However, in addition to dealing with a significant injury, he is also a one-year wonder in terms of performing at that level, averaging just 1.78 yards per route run, with a career high of 1.91 yards per route run in his other four seasons in the league. Even in 2024 before his injury, he had just a 25/374/0 slash line and 1.74 yards per route run in seven games. Aiyuk’s return from injury could still be a big boost for this offense, but I wouldn’t expect him to be anywhere near his 2023 form.

Tight end George Kittle will remain a big part of the offense. His age is becoming a concern, now going into his age 32 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, recording the second highest receiving yardage total of his career last season with a 78/1106/8 slash line on just 94 targets, and, even if he does decline a little bit, he will likely remain one of the best tight ends in the league because he is declining from such a high base point. In addition to averaging 2.48 yards per route run and a 86/1191/7 slash line per 17 games over the past seven seasons, he is also an elite run blocker, leading to him receiving PFF grades of 89.7, 95.0, 84.9, 90.9, 82.0, 87.6, and 92.1 over those seven seasons.

Eric Saubert was the #2 tight end last season, but he wasn’t retained as a free agent this off-season and instead was replaced with Luke Farrell on a 3-year, 15.75 million dollar deal. Saubert had a 51.2 PFF grade across 377 snaps last season, so it won’t be hard for Jarrell to be better, but he was still likely overpaid as a free agent. Jarrell is a capable blocker, which is primarily what his role will be in San Francisco, but he has only averaged 0.96 yards per route run with 36 catches in 66 career games, so he won’t be much more of a factor in the passing game than Saubert was. This is still a talented receiving corps, even with Deebo Samuel gone, Brandon Aiyuk likely to miss the start of the season, and George Kittle getting older, but they are not the elite unit they were in 2023.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

Getting left tackle Trent Williams back from injury will also be a big boost for this offense, though with him coming off of a significant injury and going into his age 37 season, it is fair to question if he will be the same player. Williams has exceeded a 75 grade on PFF in every season since 2011 though, with 10 seasons over 80, including an 85.6 PFF grade last season before his injury, so, even if he isn’t quite the same, the future Hall of Famer should still remain at least an above average left tackle, barring a massive decline.

Left guard Aaron Banks left as a free agent this off-season, one of the few players the 49ers lost this off-season who was actually healthy last season, but he was a middling starter with a 65.4 PFF grade in 13 starts, so it’s not as if he’s irreplaceable. In his place, the 49ers will likely start Ben Bartch. Bartch has only started 22 games in five seasons in the league, with a career high of 11 starts back in 2021, but he has mostly been decent when called upon, finishing above 60 on PFF in every season except his rookie season, and he flashed a lot of potential in limited action last season, with a 74.8 PFF grade across 65 snaps. 

Bartch is still a projection to a season-long starting role, but the 49ers have a history of getting the most out of their offensive lineman, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he proved to be a capable starter. His primary competition for the job is Spencer Burford, a 2022 4th round pick who struggled with PFF grades of 49.6 and 50.4 across 29 starts in his first two seasons in the league, before posting a 57.6 PFF grade across 113 snaps as a reserve in 2024. Bartch should beat him out for Aaron Banks’ old job unless something strange happens.

Center is also somewhat of a concerning position for the 49ers. Jake Brendel remains as the starter, after making all possible 51 starts over the past three seasons, but he has been middling at best in those three seasons, with PFF grades of 64.9, 63.9, and 65.0, and now he heads into his age 33 season and could decline, which would likely push him down into below average starter territory. If Brendel struggles, the 49ers’ other option is Matt Hennessy, a 2020 3rd round pick who excelled as a run blocker with a 88.1 PFF run blocking grade in 17 starts in 2021, but he also struggled mightily in pass protection with a 50.5 PFF pass blocking grade that season and, aside from that season, he has only ever played 398 snaps and started 5 games in his other four seasons in the league.

Fortunately, the 49ers found a steal in the third round of last year’s draft in Dominick Puni, who started all 17 games for the 49ers at right guard last season and was PFF’s 8th highest ranked guard with a 80.5 grade. Even if Puni isn’t quite as good again in 2025, he should remain at least an above average starter and he has the upside to develop into one of the consistently best guards in the league. He’ll continue starting next to right tackle Colton McKivitz, who wasn’t quite as good last season as Puni was at right guard, but who still had a solid season, with a 72.2 PFF grade in 17 starts. 

A 2020 5th round pick, McKivitz played sparingly in his first three seasons in the league, but had a solid 65.1 PFF grade while also making all 17 starts in his first season as a starter in 2023, before taking another step forward in 2024. Now with two solid seasons as a starter under his belt, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025, still only his age 29 season. McKivitz and Trent Williams will likely be backed up by swing tackle DJ Humphries. Humphries finished above 60 on PFF in nine straight seasons from 2015-2023, but he missed 49 games due to injury over that stretch, played just 92 snaps last season primarily as a reserve, and now he is going into his age 32 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. He’s probably still a good swing tackle option though. The 49ers have some question marks at left guard and center, but this should still remain at least a solid offensive line, especially if left tackle Trent Williams stays healthy and continues to avoid declining for another season, despite his age.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The 49ers didn’t have quite as many injuries on defense as they did on offense, but they did have some key players miss significant time. Stud defensive end Nick Bosa missed three games and he was sorely missed in those three games, as he had a 91.0 PFF grade across 693 snaps, excelling both as a run defender and a pass rusher, with 9 sacks, 16 hits, and a 16.4% pressure rate, while none of the 49ers’ other edge defenders finished with a PFF grade above 60 on the season. 

Bosa’s dominant play in 2025 when healthy was no surprise, as he has consistently been one of the best defensive players in the league since being the second overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, finishing above 80 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including three straight seasons over 90. In total, he has 62.5 sacks, 108 hits, and a 16.2% pressure rate in 82 career games. Still only going into his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from Bosa again in 2025 and, aside from last season and a 2020 campaign ended by a torn ACL, he has played at least 16 games in every season in the league, so I wouldn’t necessarily classify him as injury prone.

The rest of the 49ers’ edge defender group could be better this season too, after adding Georgie’s Mykel Williams in the first round of the draft. Williams is raw, particularly as a pass rusher, but he should still be able to be an upgrade as a rookie and he has a huge upside long-term. He figures to replace veteran Leonard Floyd as the starter opposite Bosa and, while Floyd had 8.5 sacks last season, that was mostly because of Bosa facing double teams and causing disruption opposite him, as Floyd finished the season with a 53.5 PFF grade across 604 snaps, so it wouldn’t be hard for Williams to be better overall than Floyd was last season.

The rest of this edge defender group consists of holdovers who struggled a year ago, most notably Sam Okuayinonu, who had a 54.1 PFF grade across 451 snaps, Yetur Gross-Matos, who had a 51.5 PFF grade across 367 snaps, and Robert Beal, who had a 55.3 PFF grade across 149 snaps. Okuayinonu is a 2022 undrafted free agent who had played just 105 mediocre snaps in his career prior to last season, so he’s unlikely to ever develop into even a useful rotational player. 

Gross-Matos was a second round pick in 2020 by the Panthers, but has finished below 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league and, now going into his age 27 season, is running out of time to deliver on his upside. Beal was a fifth round pick in 2023 and has shown very little across 188 career snaps. The 49ers are likely to get a healthier season out of Nick Bosa and the addition of Mykel Williams should make the rest of this edge defender group better in 2025 by default, but there are still significant depth concerns at this position.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The 49ers also used significant draft capital on the interior defender position this year, taking Alfred Collins in the second round and CJ West in the fourth round, but this is still an underwhelming position group. Even though they were drafted two rounds apart, Collins and West are similar prospects, earning third round grades from PFF, excelling against the run in their final collegiate season, ranking 5th and 9th in run defense grade on PFF, but also possessing limited athleticism and pass rush upside. 

One or both of Collins and West figure to play a significant role in an unsettled position group this season. Javon Hargrave missed all but 104 snaps in three games last season, so his departure this off-season won’t hurt this team much, nor will the loss of Maliek Collins, who had a 57.9 PFF grade across 715 snaps, but the rest of this position group still consists of a mostly mediocre group of holdovers, including Jordan Elliott (440 snaps), Evan Anderson (267 snaps), Kalia Davis (259 snaps), and Kevin Givens (185 snaps). 

Elliott struggled with a 47.6 PFF grade last season, which is nothing new for him, as the 5-year veteran has finished below 60 on PFF in every season in the league, including four straight seasons below 50. Davis was also terrible last season with a 47.3 PFF grade, in the first significant action of the 2022 6th round pick’s career. Anderson wasn’t terrible last season with a 60.8 PFF grade, but it came in very limited action and he was an undrafted free agent in 2024, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he never developed into even a consistently capable rotational player. Givens, meanwhile, is a 6-year veteran who has averaged 261 snaps per season in his career, while never finishing above 60 on PFF for a season, including three seasons below 50 and a 49.6 PFF grade in 2024. With rookies set to play a big role amidst a mediocre group of holdovers, the interior defender position figures to be a big position of weakness for the 49ers again in 2025.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

As I mentioned earlier, linebacker Fred Warner played most of last season through a broken bone in his leg, which makes it even more impressive that he had a 89.2 PFF grade across 997 snaps, while not missing a game. For Warner, it was his fourth season over 80 on PFF in the past five seasons, including a career best 90.2 PFF grade in 2023. In seven seasons in the league, he has missed just one game, while averaging 60.9 snaps per game in an every down role. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect another dominant season from him in 2025, perhaps even better than a year ago if he’s healthier.

Dee Winters figures to be the 49ers other starting linebacker next to Warner. Winters showed some potential last season with a 66.4 PFF grade across 398 snaps last season, after he took over the starting role down the stretch last season from veteran De’Vondre Campbell, who had a mediocre 58.3 PFF grade across 719 snaps and was not retained this off-season. Winters could continue being a solid starter into 2025, but he was only a 6th round pick in 2023 and struggled across 61 rookie season snaps before showing potential last season, so he’s still very unproven.

The 49ers also don’t have a good alternative if Winters cannot continue playing at the level he played at down the stretch last season. The rest of the 49ers’ linebacker depth chart consists of Luke Gifford, a career special teamer who has played 288 mediocre snaps on defense in six seasons in the league, 2024 7th round pick Tatum Bethune, who played just 52 snaps as a rookie, and some former undrafted free agents who have never played a snap. Warner is one of the best and more durable linebackers in the league and Winters at least has potential, but depth is a big concern at this position, particularly if Winters is unable to make good on his upside.

Grade: B+

Secondary

I mentioned earlier that the 49ers did not retain Chavarius Ward this off-season, after he had a 56.2 PFF grade across 694 snaps last season. The 49ers also did not bring back Isaac Yiadom, who was also mediocre with a 59.5 PFF grade across 488 snaps. In their absence, the 49ers will be expecting more out of 2024 2nd round pick Renaldo Green, who flashed potential with a 69.2 PFF grade across 675 snaps as a rookie and who should be able to translate that into a slightly larger role in 2025, now as a full-time starter opposite fellow holdover Deommodore Lenoir, who had a 67.3 PFF grade across 922 snaps in 15 games last season. 

A fifth round pick in 2021, Lenoir took a couple years to develop, struggling with a 57.1 PFF grade across 238 snaps as a rookie and continuing to struggle in a bigger role in his second season in the league with a 55.9 PFF grade across 887 snaps, before breaking out as a starter with a 72.5 PFF grade across 981 snaps in his third season in the league in 2023, which he then carried into 2024. He should remain a solid starter this season, still only in his age 26 season.

Green and Lenoir should be a solid starting duo, but the third cornerback role is a bit of a question mark. Free agent addition Tre Brown is probably the favorite for the job and the 2021 fourth round pick wasn’t bad in a similar role with a 62.8 PFF grade across 603 snaps in 2023, but he has played just 566 snaps in his other three seasons in the league combined, so he’s not the most proven option. His biggest competition for the job will be third round rookie Upton Stout, who played at a high level at a small school at Western Kentucky, but who lacks elite athleticism to make up for his lack of size and, as a result, could struggle to translate his game to the NFL. The 49ers also have Darrell Luter, a 2023 5th round pick who has played just 67 snaps in his career, and Tre Avery, a 2022 undrafted free agent who has played just 651 snaps over the past three seasons with the Titans and who was not tendered as a restricted free agent this off-season.

The 49ers also didn’t retain Talanoa Hufanga this off-season and he also didn’t contribute in much of a positive way last season, in an injury plagued season in which he had a mediocre 57.8 PFF grade across just 308 snaps in seven games. Malik Mustapha, a 2024 4th round pick, had already taken his starting job even before Hufanga wasn’t re-signed and had a 63.9 PFF grade across 755 snaps as a rookie, so he looks like a solid starter long-term, though in the short-term he is questionable for the start of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL. If he misses time or isn’t the same right away when he returns, the 49ers would likely turn to free agent acquisition Jason Pinnock. 

Pinnock has made 32 starts over the past two seasons, but has been inconsistent, with a 67.8 PFF grade in 2023, but a 54.5 PFF grade in 2024. He’s not a bad reserve option and spot starter, but the 49ers are definitely hoping Mustapha can return sooner rather than later. The 49ers also signed Richie Grant this off-season, a 2021 2nd round pick who started 32 games for the Falcons between the 2022 and 2023 season, but who was also inconsistent, with a 64.9 PFF grade in 2022 and a 51.5 PFF grade in 2023, before being benched and playing just 165 snaps in 2024. Like Pinnock, Grant is an option to start in Mustapha’s absence, but would be best as a reserve.

Ji’Ayir Brown is locked into one of the starting safety jobs. A 2023 3rd round pick, Brown flashed a lot of potential in limited action as a rookie with a 77.9 PFF grade across 396 snaps and, while he couldn’t quite translate that into a larger role in 2024, he still wasn’t bad with a 64.8 PFF grade across 886 snaps and, now in his third season in the league, he has the upside to take a step forward. He should at least be a capable starter, with the upside to develop into an above average starter. This isn’t a great secondary, but, even with some off-season losses, they aren’t really any worse in the secondary than they were a year ago. 

Grade: B-

Kicker

The 49ers used a third round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on kicker Jake Moody, but he has been a huge disappointment thus far, costing the 49ers 3.71 points below average as a rookie and then plummeting to 12.2 points below average in 2024, third worst in the NFL. The 49ers did not bring in another kicker this off-season, so they are giving Moody another chance and he could be better than a year ago, but he also figures to be on a pretty short leash and could be replaced with a free agent mid-season if he struggles. 

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The 49ers won just six games last season, but they were much better than their record suggested, ranking 2nd in yards per play differential and 5th in first down rate differential, which are both much more productive year-to-year than a team’s win-loss record, and they did that despite being by far the most injury plagued team in the league. The 49ers seemingly lost a lot in free agency this off-season, but the majority of the players they lost this off-season either missed significant chunks of last season or did not play at a high level. Most of the core from the team who made the Super Bowl two seasons ago is still there and, while this team isn’t as good overall as they were two years ago, they’re still much more talented than you would think if you just looked at their record last season and the off-season they had. They also go from having arguably the toughest schedule in the league last season to arguably the easiest this season. They should win among the most games in the NFC this season.

Prediction: 15-2, 1st in NFC West

Quarterback

The 49ers were probably the most talented team in the league overall last season and arguably have been for the past two seasons. They had PFF’s top overall team grade and had nine players who played at least 700 snaps and finished with a PFF grade above 80, all of whom remain on the team for 2024, though there is one potential exception that I will get to later. The 49ers have been able to keep all of this talent under the cap by being aggressive in how they structure their contracts, using big signing bonuses to borrow future cap space, and by having the lowest paid quarterback in the league in Brock Purdy, who has been a revelation for them over the past two seasons, despite being the last pick in the draft in 2022. 

The 49ers have seven players who have cap hits higher than 10 million in 2024, a list that is almost identical to the list of nine players who played more than 700 snaps and had PFF grades above 80, with the only two players from that list of nine who don’t have a cap hit above 10 million being the cheap Brock Purdy and running back Christian McCaffrey, who just signed a new extension to lower his cap hit for 2024. The 49ers have yet to win it all, but they could have easily at least made the Super Bowl in 2022 if Purdy didn’t get hurt in the NFC Championship and last year they took the Chiefs to overtime in the Super Bowl and came within a couple plays of winning the game in regulation. With their entire core from a year ago returning for 2024, the 49ers should be considered one of the top teams in the league and the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl again.

As I mentioned, none of this would be possible without Brock Purdy exceeding expectations the way he has, completing 69.4% of his passes for an average of 9.64 YPA, 31 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in 21 career regular season starts, while going 17-4 in those games. Purdy has a lot of help around him, both in terms of talented supporting players and a great scheme coached by Kyle Shanahan, but Purdy has played well in his own right, posting a 76.6 PFF grade as a rookie and then jumping to a 88.4 PFF grade in his second season in the league in 2023, 4th in the NFL among quarterbacks. Still only in his age 25 season, Purdy could keep improving and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain one of the better quarterbacks in the league for years to come. 

Purdy does only have one more year left before he’s eligible for a massive pay raise on a long-term extension, which will make it harder for the 49ers to keep talent around him, especially with how aggressive they have been in borrowing future cap space, already about 26 million over the 2025 cap, but Purdy seems like he could develop into the kind of quarterback who could lead this team at least on deep playoff runs even if his supporting cast isn’t quite as good in the future. The 2024 season will probably be the 49ers’ best chance to win a Super Bowl for a while, given Purdy’s contract status and the long-term financial situation of this team, but they should remain competitive for years to come with Purdy under center, Shanahan calling plays, and numerous talented players still in their primes that the 49ers will prioritize keeping long-term.

Purdy will be backed up by veteran journeyman Josh Dobbs, who the 49ers signed this off-season. Calling him a journeyman is putting it lightly, as the 2017 4th round pick is already on his 8th team, including his 6th team since the start of the 2022 season, but he hasn’t been bad when he’s had to play over the past two seasons, completing 62.3% of his passes for an average of 5.93 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 14 starts. If Purdy suffered a significant injury that kept him out for a long-time, the 49ers’ Super Bowl chances would go way down, but Dobbs could hold down the fort if needed for a few games without this team completely tanking. With one of the better quarterbacks in the league and a capable backup, the 49ers are in good shape at the most important position in the game.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned earlier, there is one key player from a year ago who could potentially not be on the roster for 2024 and that’s wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, who is owed 14.124 million in the final year of his rookie deal and wants to be traded if the 49ers don’t give him what he wants on a long-term extension. The 49ers would probably be able to lower Aiyuk’s cap hit for 2024 if they extended him, even on a deal that made him one of the highest paid wide receivers in the league, but that would give them another big contract to fit under the cap long-term and the 49ers at the very least seem to want to get the best deal possible in re-signing Aiyuk, given the state of their long-term cap situation and that Brock Purdy will be due a huge extension in a year.

A first round pick in 2020, Aiyuk has developed into one of the best wide receivers in the league, going from a 60/748/5 slash line with 1.73 yards per route run as a rookie, to a 56/816/5 slash line with 1.68 yards per route run in his second season in the league, to a 78/1015/8 slash line with 1.91 yards per route run in his third season in the league, to a 75/1342/7 slash line with 3.01 yards per route run last season, and he’s still only in his age 26 season and should remain in his prime for several years. 

The 49ers do have another talented wide receiver in Deebo Samuel, who has averaged 2.29 yards per route run in his career, including a 60/892/7 slash line and 2.32 yards per route run in 2023, and they used their first round pick in this year’s draft on another talented wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, so they may view Aiyuk as expendable. In fact, they probably wouldn’t have drafted Pearsall if they were planning on keeping Aiyuk long-term regardless of the price, as the 49ers had more pressing needs they could have addressed. However, Pearsall is raw, Samuel is often injured, missing time in all five seasons in the league, with 17 games missed total, and the 49ers are in win now mode, so the best case scenario for them would be to keep Aiyuk at his current salary and then franchise tag and trade him next off-season before the draft, moving forward with Samuel and Pearsall long-term and avoiding another huge long-term financial commitment. 

Aiyuk seems pretty committed to holding out until he gets his long-term extension, but he is still leaving a lot of money on the table if he sits out the 2024 season and sitting out the whole year would prevent him from being a free agent next off-season, so the 49ers do hold the leverage in this standoff. The most likely scenario is Aiyuk returning for 2024, with or without an extension, to play alongside Samuel and Pearsall, which would probably be the most talented wide receiver trio in the league, but this is definitely a situation to keep an eye on.

Jauan Jennings was the #3 receiver last season and could remain in that role this season if Aiyuk is traded or if Pearsall is too raw to make a significant impact in year one. Jennings has only averaged 1.31 yards per route run in his career, with slash lines of 24/282/5, 35/416/1, and 19/265/1 over the past three seasons, but the 49ers still kept him on a 2-year, 15.39 million dollar deal this off-season, so they clearly value him, even with all of the other wide receiver talent the 49ers have on this roster. That contract is another sign that the 49ers don’t plan on keeping Aiyik long-term, as that would be a lot of money to pay a #4 receiver.

The 49ers also have a dominant tight end in George Kittle, who plays at a high level as a receiver and a blocker. He has finished above 80 on PFF in six straight seasons, averaging 2.46 yards per route run and a 85/1180/7 slash line per 17 games, including 2.22 yards per route run and a 65/1020/6 slash line on just 90 targets last season. Kittle is going into his age 31 season and has missed 16 games in the past five seasons, which are both concerns, but the 49ers have enough talent that they can survive him being out for a few games, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does decline, he’s starting from such a high base point that he should remain one of the best tight ends in the league regardless. 

Charlie Woerner was their #2 tight end last season, playing 313 snaps, but he left this off-season and was replaced by veteran free agent Logan Thomas. Thomas is a decent pass catcher, with 184 catches and a 1.03 yards per route run average in 54 games over the past four seasons, and should be an upgrade over Woerner in that aspect, as Woerner has 11 catches and a 0.55 yards per route run average in four seasons in the league. However, Woerner is a much better run blocker, which is mostly what the 49ers need their #2 tight end for, so Thomas is probably a downgrade overall from Woerner, especially since he’s now going into his age 33 season. The 49ers also have 2023 3rd round pick Cameron Latu as a backup tight end option, but he missed his entire rookie season with injury and is a complete unknown at this point. This is the best receiving corps in the league, assuming Brandon Aiyuk is on the team this season.

Grade: A

Running Backs

Feature back Christian McCaffrey is also heavily involved in the passing game, with a 67/564/7 slash line and a 1.35 yards per route run average, but that was actually his lowest yards per route run average and his lowest yardage total for a healthy season in his career. McCaffrey has a career 1.71 yards per route run average and had slash lines of 80/651/5, 108/874/6, 116/1005/4, and 85/741/5 in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2022 respectively, but his 2024 receiving production will probably be around where it was in 2023 again, as there are just so many receiving options on this 49ers offense that someone is going to end up with less than they would have elsewhere.

Limiting McCaffrey’s passing game usage also helps them keep him fresh to carry the load as a runner and he excelled with 1,459 yards and 14 touchdowns on 272 carries last season (5.36 YPC), ranking 1st in the NFL in rushing yardage, 4th in rushing touchdowns, and 1st in yards per carry among eligible running backs. In seven seasons in the league, McCaffrey has averaged 4.77 YPC with 52 touchdowns on 1,297 carries, even though he spent most of the early part of his career on bad offenses in Carolina, and he’s even more dangerous now on a 49ers offense that has so many other threats to worry about. He did miss 23 games due to injury from 2020-2021, but has otherwise not missed a game in his career, so it’s not fair to call him an injury prone player. In his age 28 season with 339 career touches, a potential decline for McCaffrey is a concern, but even if he isn’t quite as good as he is in the past, he should still be one of the best running backs in the league. 

McCaffrey rarely comes off the field, playing 812 snaps last season (4th in the NFL among running backs), despite sitting out a meaningless week 18 game, so depth isn’t needed that much behind him, but when McCaffrey does need a breather or if he misses time with injury, the 49ers would likely turn either to incumbent backup Elijah Mitchell or to 4th round rookie Isaac Guerendo. Mitchell saw 81 touches as the backup last season, 16 of which came in that meaningless week 18 game that McCaffrey didn’t play. 

Mitchell has an impressive 4.66 YPC average on 327 carries in three seasons in the league, 207 of which came when he was the lead back in 2021 prior to McCaffrey’s arrival, but he’s very injury prone, missing at least six games in every season, with 24 total games missed in three seasons in the league, and he’s not much of a pass catcher, with just 0.70 yards per route run in his career. Guerendo will probably be behind him on the depth chart, but if Mitchell misses time, Guerendo would likely become the #2 back and, if McCaffrey misses time, Guerendo, who caught 22 passes in his final collegiate season, would probably be the passing down complement to Mitchell. Led by arguably the best running back in the league, with capable depth behind him, the 49ers are in great shape at the running back position.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

As I mentioned earlier, the 49ers probably would not have drafted Ricky Pearsall in the first round if they were planning on keeping Aiyuk long-term regardless of the cost. Some viewed that pick as a luxury pick that the 49ers could afford to make even if they were keeping Aiyuk, but, as talented as the 49ers’ roster is, they did have more pressing needs to address. One of those was the offensive line, which played pretty well last season and returns all five starters from a year ago, but three of those five starters are on the wrong side of 30, so an infusion of young talent was needed.

Left tackle Trent Williams was the best of the bunch, finishing with a 89.9 PFF grade in 15 starts, but he’s going into his age 36 season and could decline significantly soon, perhaps this season. Williams has finished above 70 on PFF in 13 straight seasons, a streak starting with his second season in the league in 2011, and he’s finished above 80 in all but one of those seasons, with five seasons above 90, including three straight as recently as 2020-2022, so even if he does decline significantly this season, he should remain at least an above average starter, but a significant decline from him would have a noticeable negative effect on the rest of this offense.

Center Jake Brendel is going into his age 32 season. The 2016 6th round pick only made three starts in his first six seasons in the league prior to becoming a full-time starter for the first time in 2022, but he’s made 34 starts over the past two seasons and hasn’t been bad, with PFF grades of 64.9 and 63.9. He doesn’t have much margin for error if he declines though, as he’s only a marginal starter at his best and would likely be a liability if he declined even a little. Right guard Jon Feliciano is also going into his age 32 season. He had a 81.2 PFF grade in 2023, but that was pretty out of character for him, as he’s only finished above 70 on PFF in one other season and that came in 2017 when he played just 124 snaps. 

Feliciano has also only made 61 starts in nine seasons in the league, while exceeding 7 starts in a season in only twice. Last season was not one of those seasons, so his strong performance came in a pretty limited sample size, as he played just 478 snaps and made just 7 starts, starting the season on the bench and suffering multiple injuries after taking over the starting job. He’s a good fit for the 49ers blocking scheme, but given his age and his history, I would be surprised if he didn’t regress significantly in 2023. He should at least be available for more games this season though, which is a good thing because Spencer Burford, who started when Feliciano was on the bench or injured, struggled mightily with a 50.4 PFF grade across 846 snaps.

Left guard Aaron Banks is much younger, as the 2021 2nd round pick is only going into his age 27 season, but he’s been mediocre in two seasons as a starter, receiving a 62.7 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2022 and a 54.9 PFF grade in 14 starts in 2023. He came into the league with a lot of upside and he’s still relatively young, even if he is older than most 4th year players are, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he took a step forward in 2024, but that’s not a guarantee. The 49ers don’t have much choice but to start him either way, as their alternatives are very underwhelming. 

The aforementioned Spencer Burford is a 2022 6th round pick who has struggled even more over the past two seasons than Banks has and doesn’t have as much upside as Banks. Dominick Puni is a third round rookie who would probably struggle if forced to start for an extended period of time as a rookie. Ben Bartch has made 20 starts in four seasons in the league since being selected by the Jaguars in the 4th round in 2020, but he’s been middling at best and mostly mediocre when forced into action. Chris Hubbard has made 58 starts in 11 seasons in the league and can play both guard and tackle, but he’s also been middling at best and is now going into his age 33 season.

Right tackle Colton McKivitz is the only offensive line starter below 30 who played well for the 49ers last season, as the 2020 5th round pick is only going into his age 28 season and had a solid 65.1 PFF grade in 17 starts last season. He’s only a one-year starter though, playing just 439 snaps and making just five starts in three seasons in the league prior to last season. He could remain a solid starter in 2024, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if he regressed somewhat, given his lack of experience.

The 49ers also have a good young swing tackle in Jaylon Moore, a 2021 5th round pick who has made seven starts in three seasons in the league, while receiving PFF grades of 66.3 and 72.9 over the past two seasons. He’s relatively unproven and could struggle in an extended role, but he’s a solid option as far as swing tackles go. Overall, the 49ers’ offensive line looks likely to be worse than a year ago. They bring back all five starters, but four of them could be worse than a year ago, including three who are in their age 32 season or older.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position is another one the 49ers could have addressed early in the draft, after losing Arik Armstead, their biggest off-season loss. Armstead only played 509 snaps in 12 games last season, but he had a 81.9 PFF grade, excelling as an interior pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate. He was going into his age 31 season and had a history of injuries, which is why the 49ers released him to save 18.26 million, but he will still be missed. To replace Armstead, the 49ers traded two late round picks for Maliek Collins and the 2 years and 23 million remaining on his contract. He’s younger than Armstead, only going into his age 29 season, but he will almost definitely be a downgrade, even if he doesn’t miss significant time like Armstead did last season.

Collins is an above average pass rusher, with pass rush grades in the 70s on PFF in four of the past five seasons, a stretch in which he has had 25.5 sacks, 53 hits, and a 8.2% pressure rate in 119 games, but he also finished below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in four of those five seasons, while maxing out with a 65.4 overall grade from PFF. He should remain a similar player in 2024, above average as a pass rusher, below average as a run defender, and middling at best overall.

The 49ers also lost Javon Kinlaw in free agency this off-season, watching him sign with the Jets on a 1-year, 7.25 million dollar deal. He struggled mightily against the run, but was at least a good pass rusher with 3.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 9.6% pressure rate, while his replacement Jordan Elliott, who the 49ers signed to a 2-year, 7 million dollar deal, isn’t good in any aspect of the game, finishing with PFF grades of 55.3, 41.6, 40.4, and 46.5 on snap counts of 307, 464, 703, and 440 in four seasons in the league since going in the 3rd round in 2020. Equally bad as a run defender and a pass rusher, Elliott has just 5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 4.6% pressure rate in 66 career games. Elliott is now in his age 27 season, so it’s unlikely he has any untapped potential and he figures to continue struggling.

The 49ers do at least bring back Javon Hargrave, who had a 73.9 PFF grade across 632 snaps last season, excelling as a pass rusher with 7 sacks, 7 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate, while struggling somewhat against the run. That’s in line with how he’s played throughout his career, finishing above 60 on PFF as a pass rusher in all eight seasons in the league, but finishing below 60 in run defense five times. He’s been especially good as a pass rusher the past five seasons, with 34 sacks, 29 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate in 127 games. Unfortunately, he’s going into his age 31 season and, while he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, it wouldn’t be a surprise if his decline started in 2024. He should remain at least an above average pass rusher, but he might not be as good as he has been in recent years, while his run defense could get even worse.

The 49ers also bring back Kevin Givens, who played 398 snaps last season, although he’s an underwhelming option even as a reserve, finishing last season with a 56.9 PFF grade, his 5th straight season below 60 on PFF to begin his career, since going undrafted in 2019. Mediocre as a run defender and a pass rusher, Givens has just 4.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 5.9% pressure rate in 57 career games and should continue struggling in 2024. The 49ers have a great interior pass rush duo of Javon Hargrave and Maliek Collins, but both figure to struggle against the run, while their reserve options of Jordan Elliott and Kevin Givens aren’t good in any aspect of the game. With Arik Armstead gone and Javon Hargrave aging, this position group should be significantly worse than a year ago.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

The edge defender position is another spot where the 49ers lost a key player this off-season and could have replaced him in the draft, but didn’t, as they lost Chase Young to the Saints on a 1-year, 13 million dollar deal. Young only spent half the season with the 49ers, after being acquired from the Commanders at the trade deadline for a third round pick, but he had a solid 68.6 PFF grade across 328 snaps, playing the run decently and adding 2.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate in 9 games. The 49ers also lost Clelin Ferrell this off-season and he was decent with a 60.7 PFF grade on 471 snaps, while totaling 3.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate in 17 games.

With no premium draft picks being used on the position, Young and Ferrell will be replaced by free agents Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos, neither of whom are likely to be as good as Young was last season. Floyd was an above average edge defender in his prime, exceeding 60 on PFF in seven straight seasons to begin his career, through the 2022 season, but he fell to 56.3 across 576 snaps last season and is now heading into his age 32 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. He was still a solid pass rusher with 10.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate last season, but he struggled against the run and missed a bunch of tackles, so he’s not as complete of a player as Chase Young was, even before you take his age into account.

Yetur Gross-Matos is much younger than Floyd, only going into his age 26 season, and he has upside as a 2020 2nd round pick, but he has been underwhelming through four seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 54.7, 63.8, 51.2, and 65.4 respectively on snap counts of 377, 349, 847, and 465 respectively. He isn’t a bad run defender, but he only has 13 sacks, 18 hits, and a 7.2% pressure rate in 55 career games and, unless he takes a big step forward in 2024, he figures to remain an underwhelming option.

The 49ers do still have Nick Bosa, who had a 92.7 PFF grade across 821 snaps last season. That was the best single season grade of his 5-year career, but he’s far from a one-year wonder, also receiving PFF grades of 86.7, 88.3, and 90.9 on snap counts of 777, 840, and 745 in 2019, 2021, and 2022 respectively, with a lost season due to injury in 2020 in between. He’s also not injury prone, only missing one game due to injury in his other four seasons combined, aside from his season ending injury in 2020. 

In total, Bosa has 53.5 sacks, 92 hits, and a 16.2% pressure rate in 68 career games, with 10.5 sacks, 24 hits, and a 16.8% pressure rate in 17 games last season and, as good as he is as a pass rusher, he is equally good against the run. Still very much in the prime of his career in his age 27 season, Bosa is on the short list of top Defensive Player of the Year candidates, an award he won in 2022. He elevates this position group significantly by himself.

Drake Jackson also figures to play more snaps then he did a year ago, when he suffered a season ending injury after 199 snaps in 8 games, which is why the 49ers went out and acquired Chase Young. Jackson was a second round pick in 2022, but has yet to live up to that, playing just 514 snaps in 23 games in two seasons in the league, while receiving middling PFF grades of 64.6 and 62.1. He’s a solid run stopper, but only has 6 sacks, 4 hits, and a 7.8% pressure rate thus far in his career. He could take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2024 though, only going into his age 23 season. Still, this is an overall underwhelming position group outside of Nick Bosa, but Bosa is so good that it would be hard for this group to be bad overall as long as he is healthy.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

In addition to Nick Bosa, the 49ers also have a dominant defender in their linebacking corps, as Fred Warner finished last season with a 90.2 PFF grade across 982 snaps. That was the best season of his career, but he also has had PFF grades of 88.6, 75.2, and 83.7 across snap counts of 973, 977, and 1,026 over the three seasons prior to last season, so, even if he isn’t as good as he was last season, he should still remain one of the best linebackers in the league, still very much in his prime in his age 28 season. 

Fellow starting linebacker Dre Greenlaw is coming off of a solid season in his own right, with a 69.3 PFF grade on 848 snaps. That’s not out of character for him, exceeding 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, maxing out with an 81.2 PFF grade on 850 snaps in 2022. He’s also still in his prime in his age 27 season. Unfortunately, he tore his achilles in the Super Bowl and could miss a big chunk of the 2024 season and/or not be his best self when he returns. 

Because of Greenlaw’s injury, the 49ers signed veteran De’Vondre Campbell to a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal in free agency. In his prime, Campbell was one of the best linebackers in the league, receiving PFF grades of 84.7 and 75.6 in 2021 and 2022, but he fell to a 65.3 PFF grade in 2023 and is now going into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him. He should still be an adequate replacement for Greenlaw while he is out or not at his best and, if Greenlaw can return to form at some point in 2024, Campbell is more than qualified to be the third linebacker in base packages.

If Greenlaw misses time, it’s unclear who the third linebacker in base packages would be and all of the 49ers’ options are underwhelming. Veterans Ezekiel Turner and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles are both career special teamers who have played just 194 snaps in six seasons in the league and 468 snaps in five seasons in the league, while 2023 6th round pick Dee Winters struggled mightily on 61 snaps as a rookie. 

The 49ers also have 2023 7th round pick Jalen Graham, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and 7th round pick Tatum Bethune, who is likely to struggle as a rookie. Fortunately, the third linebacker job is just a part-time role and the 49ers would only need a replacement until Greenlaw returns from injury. With Warner, Greenlaw, and Campbell as their top-3 linebackers, this is an impressive group, even with Greenlaw’s injury and their lack of depth outside of their top-3 taken into account.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The 49ers also got a dominant season out of top cornerback Chavarius Ward, who had an 82.6 PFF grade across 931 snaps in 2023. An undrafted free agent in 2018, Ward spent the first four seasons of his career in Kansas City and was a solid starter, receiving PFF grades in the 60s in all four seasons while starting 41 of the 43 games he played across his final three seasons with the Chiefs, but he took off when he joined the 49ers on a 3-year, 40.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, receiving a 83.2 PFF grade across 959 snaps in 2022, before repeating that level of play again in 2023. Ward’s contract, which once looked like an overpay, now looks like a steal, as he’s only the 11th highest paid cornerback in the league in terms of average annual salary. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Ward should remain a dominant cornerback in 2024 and is unlikely to regress to his pre-2022 form.

Deommodore Lenoir was the #2 cornerback last season and had a pretty solid season, with a 72.5 PFF grade across 981 snaps. He’s a one-year wonder, as the 2021 5th round pick had PFF grades of 57.1 and 55.9 across snap counts of 238 and 887 in the first two seasons of his career, so he could regress in 2024, but he’s also only going into his age 25 season and could have permanently turned a corner as an above average starter, so it’s far from a guarantee that he will regress this season.

Ambry Thomas (482 snaps) and Isaiah Oliver (503 snaps) also saw roles at cornerback last season and were solid with PFF grades of 71.5 and 67.6 respectively. Oliver is no longer with the team, but Thomas remains and will compete with second round rookie Renardo Green and free agent acquisition Isaac Yiadom for the #3 cornerback job. Green has a high upside long-term, but Thomas and Yiadom could be better options in the short-term. 

Both Thomas and Yiadom are one-year wonders though. Thomas was a third round pick in 2021, struggling mightily with a 46.1 PFF grade on 334 snaps as a rookie and then playing just 41 snaps in his second season in the league. He’s still only in his age 25 season and has upside, but he still didn’t play that big of a snap count as a part-time player in 2023 and could be overmatched in a bigger role in 2024, so he comes with a lot of downside.

Yiadom, meanwhile, was also a third round pick, back in 2018, but he struggled mightily with PFF grades in the 50s on an average of 467 snaps per season in his first three seasons in the league and then played just 98 snaps between 2021-2022, before surprisingly breaking out with a 81.1 PFF grade across 517 snaps with the Saints in 2023. He probably won’t be that good again in 2024, especially if he plays an expanded role, but even if he regresses significantly, he could remain a solid third cornerback. Yiadom, Thomas, and the rookie Green all come with big downsides, but they also have big upsides and, overall, they provide great depth as the 49ers’ 3rd, 4th, and 5th cornerbacks, in some order.

At safety, Tashaun Gipson and Talanoa Hufanga were the starters to begin last season and both had impressive seasons, with PFF grades of 73.6 and 70.5 respectively. Hufanga suffered a season ending injury down the stretch and was limited to 577 snaps in 10 games on the season, but his replacement, 2023 3rd round pick Ji’Ayir Brown, played at an even higher level in his absence, finishing with a 77.9 PFF grade across 396 snaps. Gipson wasn’t re-signed this off-season, so Brown will start opposite Hufanga.

Brown is a projection to a season-long starter role and might not be as good as he was in limited action last season, but, even if he isn’t, he could still be a solid starter and he has the upside to be more than that. Hufanga, meanwhile, was a season-long starter in 2022 and had a 68.8 PFF grade so, assuming he’s over the injury that ended his 2023 season, he should be a solid starter in 2024. Hufanga, 2021 5th round pick, is also still only in his age 25 season and could have the upside for more. Even after losing Tashaun Gipson this off-season, the 49ers still should have a solid safety duo in Ji’Ayir Brown and Talanoa Hufanga.

Depth is a concern though, without Gipson. The 49ers drafted Malik Mustapha in the 4th round this year, but he’s probably too raw to start for an extended period of time in case of an injury to Brown or Hufanga. George Odum would be the veteran option, but he’s mostly been a special teamer in his career and has been middling at best on an average of 177 snaps per season in six seasons in the league. He’s also now going into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him. Perhaps the 49ers could move one of their cornerbacks to safety in case of an injury, as their cornerback room is much deeper. Overall, this is a talented secondary that should be above average.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The 49ers have come very close to winning it all the past two seasons and bring back almost their entire core from the past two seasons. They might not necessarily be the favorites to win it all, but they’re high up on the short list of teams who could win it all. Much is dependent on the Brandon Aiyuk contract/holdout situation, but it seems likely that he will suit up for the 49ers one way or another this season.

Update: Aiyuk has been re-signed long-term. The 49ers still have a concerning situation with Trent Williams wanting his contract redone, but it seems like the 49ers will resolve that sooner rather than later.

Prediction: 15-2, 1st in NFC West

Quarterback

The 49ers had a strange year in 2022. It goes back to the 2021 NFL Draft, when they traded away the equivalent of three first round picks, in addition to other later picks, to acquire the 3rd overall pick and select North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance, who had a sky high upside, but had only made 17 starts at the collegiate level due to injury and COVID cancellations. The 49ers already had Jimmy Garroppolo, who had a lot of success, including a Super Bowl appearance during the 2019 season, but the 49ers felt that Garoppolo benefited significantly from his supporting cast and that Lance gave them a higher upside in the long-term, while providing them with a much needed upgrade at the backup quarterback spot in the short-term, given Garoppolo’s history of injury issues. 

The plan was to start Garoppolo in 2021, with Lance as the backup, and then move Garoppolo and his expensive salary the following off-season, allowing the cheaper and hopefully better Trey Lance to take over in 2022 and beyond. Lance was underwhelming with a 59.9 PFF grade in two rookie year starts as a spot starter in the absence of Garoppolo, who led this team to an NFC Championship appearance, but fell just short of a Super Bowl appearance in a game in which Garoppolo had a mediocre performance. 

The 49ers seemed sure to move on from Garoppolo last off-season following that loss, but couldn’t find a suitor for Garoppolo’s salary because of his off-season shoulder injury and, with neither side having a better option, Garoppolo surprisingly agreed to return to the 49ers for the 2022 season on a reduced deal as Trey Lance’s backup. That proved to be a smart move for both sides, as Trey Lance unfortunately suffered a season ending injury after just 31 pass attempts in two games (55.0 QB rating, 53.1 PFF grade), giving Garoppolo the chance to get his old job back.

The 49ers started the 2022 season 3-4, but they had a lot of injuries early in the year. As the season went on, they got healthier, while Garoppolo proved to be an upgrade over Lance under center, and, perhaps most importantly, they acquired Christian McCaffrey in a trade from the Panthers in which the 49ers surrendered a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th round pick, which proved to be well worth it. McCaffrey doesn’t deserve all the credit, as his addition coincided closely with the insertion of Garoppolo into the starting lineup and the return of several other key players from injury, but the 49ers immediately won 4 in a row after McCaffrey became their featured back in week 8.

Those four wins took them to week 12, when it seemed like their season could have suddenly been over, with Garoppolo now suffering a season ending injury, leaving 7th round rookie Brock Purdy as the 49ers starting quarterback for the rest of the season. The 49ers still had one of the best rosters in the league outside of the quarterback position, but Purdy seemed likely to be overmatched in the first action of his career. 

Instead, Purdy continued the 49ers’ success, winning his first 8 games to extend the winning streak to 12 games in a row, all the way up to the NFC Championship, when disaster struck again, with Purdy going down with an elbow injury early in the game. Backup Josh Johnson played admirably for a mid-season signing and essentially a 4th string quarterback, but when he too suffered an injury in the NFC Championship, the 49ers were essentially left without a passing attack, without a 3rd active quarterback, as one final quarterback injury that they couldn’t withstand put the nail in the coffin in a 31-7 loss.

The 49ers now head into the 2023 season still with among the most talent in the league around the quarterback, but with an unsettled situation under center. Garoppolo is now gone for good, signing a long-term deal with the Raiders in free agency. Brock Purdy played well enough that he figures to keep his job as long as he’s healthy, as he completed 67.1% of his passes for an average of 8.08 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in the regular season, and, while he benefited from a lot of talent around him, he was PFF’s 15th ranked quarterback with a 76.6 PFF grade over that stretch as well.

However, Purdy might not be ready for the start of the season after off-season surgery and, even if he is, he might not be 100% right away or he could prove to be a fluke, as we have still only seen a small sample size from him. The 49ers still have Trey Lance, who could start if Purdy isn’t ready for the beginning of the year, but he hasn’t shown a lot in limited action in his career and the 49ers took a flier on another former 3rd overall pick Sam Darnold this off-season and it’s very possible he jumps Lance on the depth chart. 

Darnold has just a 78.2 QB rating in 55 starts in his career, but he had a 92.6 QB rating in six starts last season with the Panthers after returning from injury, he has never had anywhere near as good of a coaching staff and supporting cast as he’ll have with the 49ers, and he’s only going into his age 26 season and could still have untapped upside. Both he and Lance have low floors, but they both come with upside as well and it’s very possible Darnold ends up as the week one starter if he beats out Lance and Purdy isn’t ready right away at the beginning of the year. It’s definitely a situation to watch, on a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

As I mentioned, this team went on a 12-game winning streak starting with the first game in which they used Christian McCaffrey in a feature back role after acquiring him in a trade from the Panthers. McCaffrey doesn’t deserve all of the credit, as that coincided with this team getting healthier and getting better quarterback play under center with Jimmy Garoppolo and later Brock Purdy, rather than Trey Lance at the beginning of the year. However, McCaffrey’s impact on this offense still can’t be understated.

In many ways, McCaffrey was almost a perfect fit for the 49ers, who are a run heavy team (9th in the league with 504 rush attempts and just 27th in the league with 512 pass attempts) and who love dual threat players like McCaffrey that can excel in multiple different areas, as McCaffrey does as a runner and a receiver. Because he doesn’t have a real weakness, McCaffrey was a true every down back, playing 46.5 snaps per game in the 13 games after he became the featured back last season. 

McCaffrey’s 4.69 YPC and 6 touchdowns on 159 carries was impressive, but his biggest value to this team was as a receiver, as he finished the season second on the team with a 1.86 yards per route run average, 3rd in the NFL among eligible running backs, while turning 65 targets into a 52/464/4 slash line in 11 regular season games and receiving a 91.4 grade from PFF as a receiver, best in the NFL among eligible running backs. That’s pretty par for the course for a player who has exceeded 80 in receiving grade on PFF in five of six seasons in the league, while averaging 1.78 yards per route run and catching 442 passes for 3,756 yards and 22 touchdowns in 75 career games.

McCaffrey has also turned 1,025 carries into 4,726 yards and 38 touchdowns (4.61 YPC) in those 75 games in six seasons in the league. Injuries were a big problem for him in 2020 and 2021, limiting him to 212 touches in 10 games total across those two seasons, and, even if he’s not necessarily an injury prone player, exceeding 300 touches in the other three of his last five seasons in the league, he does play a position with a higher than average injury risk, especially for a player who sees the workload that McCaffrey does. However, McCaffrey is still only going into his age 27 season and is unlikely to start declining this season, so, if he can stay healthy, he should continue playing at a similar level as he has in recent years.

With this being a run-heavy team and McCaffrey seeing extra touches in the passing game, the 49ers do use other running backs to try to keep McCaffrey healthy. Their preferred #2 option at the running back position is Elijah Mitchell, who missed 12 regular season games with injury last season and found himself behind McCaffrey on the depth chart when he returned, but who still received 62 carries in 6 games that he played with McCaffrey on the roster, taking them for 4.69 YPC, not far behind McCaffrey himself, who had 69 carries in those 6 games.

Mitchell was just a 6th round pick in 2021, but he received 207 carries in 11 games as a rookie and took them for a 4.65 YPC average and 5 touchdowns, proving to be a great fit in the 49ers’ zone blocking scheme. He’s not much of a pass catcher, with a career 0.82 yards per route run average, and durability has been a problem for him, as he also missed 6 games as a rookie, but he has shown himself more than capable of playing a part-time role as an early down specialist, allowing the 49ers to be run-heavy and to frequently use McCaffrey in the passing game, without overloading him too much.

If Mitchell gets hurt, behind him on the depth chart the 49ers have 2022 3rd round pick Tyrion Davis-Price, who struggled with a 2.91 YPC on 34 rookie year carries, but who could be better in year two, and 2022 undrafted free agent Jordan Mason, who averaged 6.00 YPC on 43 rookie year carries, as well as a pair of 2023 undrafted free agents Khalan Laborn and Ronald Awatt, who have an outside chance of making this final roster. McCaffrey is obviously the focal point of this backfield, but they have good depth behind him as well and this blocking scheme has a history of getting the most out of overlooked running backs, so the 49ers should be in good shape at this position.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

McCaffrey was added to a receiving corps that already had a lot of playmakers in it and, given that, it’s reasonable to expect that the 49ers other pass catchers would see a statistical drop off when he was added. However, while the 49ers’ other pass catchers did see their target share drop, for the most part their efficiency improved so much with McCaffrey around that they didn’t see a significant drop off in total production. 

Wide receiver Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings had slash lines that extrapolated to 78/940/5 on 131 targets, 78/981/7 on 119 targets, and 34/437/2 on 58 targets respectively before McCaffrey’s became the featured back. In the 13 games after McCaffrey became the featured back, their slash lines extrapolated to 70/861/2, 68/942/7, and 39/468/0 respectively on target totals of 117, 98, and 60 respectively. Tight end George Kittle had the biggest drop off in target share, from a 116 target pace to a 69 target pace, but he still only saw his extrapolated slash line fall from 85/952/3 to 59/849/13. All four of those aforementioned receivers are back for 2023, along with McCaffrey, so I would expect more of the same, barring a massive drop off in quarterback play.

If anything, Deebo Samuel could be even better in 2023 than he was last season, as last year was a down year for him, as his yards per route run average dropped to 1.69, from 2.51 over his first three seasons in the league from 2019-2021, including 2.98 yards per route run and a 77/1405/6 slash line on 121 targets in 2021 (11.61 yards per target, as opposed to 6.72 yards per target in 2022). He might not bounce back all the way in 2023 and durability has been an issue for him throughout his career, costing him 15 games in four seasons in the league and limiting him in several others, but he didn’t need a huge target share to produce at that level in 2021 and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he approached that level of production again if he can stay healthy in 2023, even with a lot of other options in this passing game.

Like many of the 49ers’ key players, Deebo Samuel is a dual threat, also adding 597 yards and 11 touchdowns on 101 carries over the past two seasons (5.91 YPC), lining up occasionally as a running back out of the backfield. Brandon Aiyuk is more of a traditional wide receiver, but the 2020 first round pick has developed into an above average one, going from a 60/748/5 slash line, 1.73 yards per route run average, and 80.1 PFF grade as a rookie to 56/816/5, 1.68, and 74.4 respectively in 2021 to 78/1015/8, 1.91, and 80.3 respectively in 2022. He’s not an elite wide receiver, but he’s only in his age 25 season, so he could have further untapped upside and, even if he doesn’t, he could easily continue being an above average wide receiver for years to come.

Jauan Jennings is an underwhelming wide receiver, but he’s a decent option as the #3 wide receiver, averaging 1.38 yards per route run in that role over the past two seasons, after not playing a snap as a 7th round rookie in 2020. He will likely keep that job in 2023, though he could be challenged for the role by Danny Gray, a 2022 3rd round pick who only played 87 snaps as a rookie, but who could be ready for a bigger role in his second season in the league in 2023.

Tight end George Kittle is the most likely of this bunch to see a statistical drop off in 2023. As I mentioned, his target share dropped off significantly once McCaffrey was added and, while he had a huge leap in efficiency at the same time, catching 85.5% of his passes for an average of 12.30 yards per attempt and a touchdown every 5.31 targets over a 13-game span, he’s unlikely to continue being quite that good in 2023, in part because no one is ever that good over an extended period of time, but also because he now is heading into his age 30 season and could be begin to decline soon. 

Meanwhile, Kittle’s decreased target share is likely to remain, given that he and McCaffrey operate in similar parts of the field. Kittle has also had consistent durability problems throughout his career, missing 16 games in six seasons in the league and being limited in several others, which not only means he could miss more time with injury this season, but it could also contribute to him declining quicker than expected as he goes into his 30s. 

All of this considered, I would expect Kittle to be a smaller part of this passing game this season than he has been in the past. Fortunately, Kittle is also an above average run blocker, which, combined with his career 2.34 yards per route run average, has led to him finishing above 80 overall on PFF in five straight seasons, so even if he declines, it will be from a pretty high level and he should remain above average as both a blocker and a pass catcher, one of the few tight ends in the league who can say so. 

The 49ers also added Alabama tight end Cameron Latu in the 3rd round of the draft to give them a younger development option at the position and he will compete with 2020 6th round pick Charlie Woerner to be the #2 tight end, a battle he could win even as a rookie, with Woerner having played just 567 snaps with a 0.72 yards per route run average in three seasons in the league. Both could play small roles in a receiving corps that has among the most talent of any in the league, especially when you consider the dual threat Christian McCaffrey.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The 49ers’ offensive line has been a strength for them for years, but they have lost significant players in each of the last two off-seasons. Last off-season, they lost starting center Alex Mack and starting left guard Laken Tomlinson and, while their replacements, 2021 2nd round pick Aaron Banks and career backup Jake Brendel respectively, both had decent seasons in 2022, with PFF grades of 62.7 in 16 starts and 64.9 in 17 starts respectively, this off-season they lost starting right tackle Mike McGlinchey, who had a 71.5 PFF grade in 17 starts, and their top option at right guard, Daniel Brunskill, who had a 69.0 PFF grade on 518 snaps, without really replacing either of them.

Swing tackle Colton McKivitz, a 2020 5th round pick, is likely the favorite to replace McGlinchey at right tackle, but he has played just 439 snaps in three seasons in the league and, while he hasn’t been horrible in that limited action, he will almost definitely be a significant downgrade from McGlinchey. Other candidates for the right tackle job are 2021 5th round pick Jaylon Moore and veteran free agent addition Matt Pryor, but Moore hasn’t shown much on 329 career snaps, while Pryor is a career backup who has been middling at best in 24 starts in five seasons in the league, so they would both be big downgrades from McGlinchey as well.

With Brunskill gone at right guard, that job will fall to Spencer Burford, a 2022 4th round pick who actually was their primary starter at the position last season, with 744 snaps played, but who also struggled mightily with a 49.6 PFF grade and who is no guarantee to be significantly better in his second season in the league. Burford is almost definitely locked into that job, but only by default, with their best alternative probably being 2022 6th round pick Nick Zakelj, who played just 12 snaps as a rookie.

Brendel and Banks remain at center and left guard for the second straight seasons, without a better option or a competent backup on the roster at either spot. Banks is a former high draft pick who is only going into his third season in the league, so he should continue being at least a competent starter, with the upside to be even more. Brendel, however, is already in his age 31 season, despite last year being his first year as a primary starter, as the 2016 undrafted free agent had made just 3 starts across his first 6 seasons in the league prior to last season. It’s possible Brendel could continue being a decent starter, but he doesn’t have much upside and, given his age and lack of experience, he could easily regress this season.

The saving grace of this offensive line is dominant left tackle Trent Williams, who is their only starting offensive lineman remaining from two years ago and a player who, if he plays at his best, elevates this whole offensive line by a significant amount, coming off three seasons where he has received PFF grades of 91.9, 97.8, and 93.0, while finishing above 80 on PFF in 8 of his last 10 seasons. However, Williams is now heading into his age 35 season and, while he hasn’t shown any signs of aging yet, it’s very possible he regresses at least a little bit this season, which would weaken this offensive line even more. Williams’ presence still elevates this group by a significant amount, but the rest of this group is pretty inexperienced and Williams age is becoming a concern.

Grade: B- 

Edge Defenders

In addition to all the talent the 49ers have around the quarterback on offense, the 49ers also have a lot of talented players on defense, retaining most of a defense that finished last season 1st in defensive DVOA. Probably the most talented of those players is edge defender Nick Bosa, who received the Defensive Player of the Year award for his performance in 2022, totaling 18.5 sacks (most in the NFL), 30 hits, and a 17.7% pressure rate, while excelling against the run and finishing 3rd among edge defenders on PFF with a 90.9 overall grade on 745 snaps.

It was a career best year for Bosa, but it was nothing new for a player who has 43 sacks, 68 hits, and a 15.9% pressure rate in 51 career games and who had previously received grades of 86.7, 84.9, and 88.3 from PFF in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season. Still very much in his prime in his age 26 season, Bosa should continue playing at a very high level in 2023 and should be on the short list to defend his title and win Defensive Player of the Year for the second straight year.

The 49ers have a bit of a concern at the edge defender position behind Bosa though. Charles Omenihu and Samson Ebukam both played heavy rotational roles last season and fared pretty well, with Omenihu receiving a 67.5 PFF grade on 572 snaps and Ebukam receiving a 69.1 PFF grade on 559 snaps, but are no longer on the team. The 49ers have 2022 2nd round pick Drake Jackson set to play a bigger role in year two, after showing potential with a 64.1 grade on 315 snaps as a rookie, but, aside from him, the 49ers other options at the position are a pair of low end veteran free agent acquisitions Clelin Ferrell and Austin Bryant, as well as 5th round rookie Robert Beal, who would likely struggle if he played a significant role in year one.

Ferrell seems like their best reserve option, signed to a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal in free agency. Ferrell has been a bust as the 4th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, but he hasn’t been a bad player either. He only has 10 sacks, 23 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate in 58 career games, but that’s in part because he’s lined up on the interior in some pass rush situations, where it’s harder to pressure the passer, and he’s been a solid run stuffer, leading to him finishing above 60 overall on PFF in three of four seasons in the league, with an average of 466 snaps played per season. 

Still only in his age 26 season, Ferrell may still have untapped upside and, at the very least, should be a solid rotational player. Bryant, on the other hand, was a 4th round pick in 2019 and has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, on an average of 247 snaps per season. He figures to continue struggling, even in what is likely to be a deep reserve role. Nick Bosa’s presence elevates this position group significantly and Drake Jackson has upside, but the 49ers are kind of top heavy at this position, after losing a pair of useful contributors from a year ago.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position was a relative weakness for the 49ers last season, with seven players playing at least 147, but no more than 357 snaps, with no one finishing above 63.3 on PFF. They should be significantly better in this group next season though. For one, they added Javon Hargrave on a big 4-year, 84 million dollar deal in free agency. That makes him the 5th highest paid interior defender in the league in terms of average annual salary, but it could easily be worth it, if he continues to play like he has in recent years.

His run defense has been inconsistent throughout his career, but he’s always been an effective pass rusher, with a 11.2% pressure rate in his career, and he’s been especially effective over the past seven seasons, finishing above 80 on PFF in pass rush grade in all three seasons, while totaling 23 sacks, 20 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate in 48 games. The one concern with Hargrave is he is going into his age 30 season and could begin declining soon, perhaps as soon as this season, but, even at less than his best, he should be a welcome addition for this position group.

Hargrave figures to start next to Arik Armstead, who could bounce back from a disappointing and injury plagued 2022 campaign to give them another above average every down player. From 2017-2021, Armstead finished above 70 on PFF in all five seasons, totaling 24 sacks, 29 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate over that stretch and also playing pretty well against the run, showing himself to be a well-rounded every down player by finishing above 60 in both pass rush and run defense grade in all five seasons and playing 45.9 snaps per game in 71 games. 

In 2022, however, Armstead played just 349 snaps in 9 games due to injury and finished with a 63.3 PFF grade in his limited action. Armstead now heads into his age 30 season and his best days could be behind him as a result. However, he’s also not totally over the hill and could bounce back at least somewhat in 2023, even if he’s not at his peak form, and he should be healthier and play a bigger role than a year ago. He and Hargrave could easily both be above average starters, which would make this group significantly better than a year ago.

The 49ers were originally counting on 2020 1st round pick Javon Kinlaw to be the long-term starter next to Armstead, but he has proven to be a bust thus far in his career, finishing with a 54.1 PFF grade on 547 snaps as a rookie, before missing 24 games and being limited to 311 snaps total over the next two seasons due to injury, while again failing to top a 60 grade on PFF in both seasons. Kinlaw still has untapped potential if he can stay healthy and the 49ers probably won’t need him to be anything more than a reserve, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he’s already in his age 26 season and there’s a good chance he doesn’t develop much beyond this.

The 49ers also have veterans Kerry Hyder (357 snaps) and Kevin Givens (354 snaps) returning to compete for reserve roles, although both are pretty underwhelming options. Hyder has had some solid years in his career, finishing with PFF grades of 67.7, 68.0, and 68.6 respectively on snap counts of 659, 439, and 722 respectively in 2016, 2019, and 2020 respectively, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in each of his other five seasons in the league, including each of the past two seasons.

Hyder now heads into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him as a result, and he figures to remain an underwhelming option even as a reserve. Givens, meanwhile, has finished below 60 on PFF in all four seasons in his career, while maxing out at 387 snaps in a season. Neither he nor Hyder should be guaranteed a roster spot, but one of them will probably have to serve in at least a deep reserve role. Fortunately, the 49ers have a great every down starting duo and could get more out of former first round pick Javon Kinlaw, now in a reserve role and hopefully healthy, so this is an above average group overall.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The 49ers also had a pair of high level players at the off ball linebacker position, with Fred Warner (1,026 snaps) and Dre Greenlaw (850 snaps) finishing 4th and 7th respectively at the position with PFF grades of 83.7 and 81.2 respectively. For Warner, last year’s high level performance was nothing new, as the 2018 3rd round pick has been an every down starter since entering the league, playing at least 973 snaps every season and missing just 1 game ever, while finishing above 60 on PFF in all five seasons, including three straight seasons over 75, with his career best year coming in 2020 when he had a 88.6 grade. Still in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect him to continue being one of the best every down linebackers in the league. 

For Greenlaw, however, 2022 was a career best year, as he had shown flashes of high level play in his first three seasons in the league, but he had never exceeded a 69.5 grade on PFF, while missing 16 games due to injury in three seasons. It’s possible the 2019 5th round pick has permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average every down linebacker for years to come, but he’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he did last season and he could easily regress or suffer another injury in 2023. I would still expect him to be at least a solid every down linebacker, but it might be hard for him to repeat the best season of his career for the second year in a row.

The 49ers lost Azeez Al-Shaair in free agency and he was one of the best 3rd linebackers in the league, a player with every down skills who was overqualified for his limited role, but he only played 313 snaps for them last season (67.8 PFF grade), so he won’t be missed too much, unless the 49ers have an injury at the position. The 49ers used a 6th round pick on TCU’s Dee Winters as a potential long-term replacement, but, most likely, the 3rd linebacker job will go to one of their top reserves from last year, either Oren Burks (156 snaps) or Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (81 snaps). 

Burks flashed potential in his limited role and was a 3rd round pick back in 2018, but he’s also only played 641 defensive snaps total in five seasons in the league and last season was the first of his career in which he didn’t finish below 60 on PFF. Flannigan-Fowles, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2019 and has played just 306 nondescript snaps on defense in his career. Neither will have to play a big role, but the 49ers do use a 3rd linebacker in base packages and, if either of their top-2 linebackers got hurt, the 49ers would be forced to rely on one or both of Burks and Flannigan-Fowles in a significant role, which would be a problem. Warner and Greenlaw are a high level every down duo, even if Greenlaw isn’t a guarantee to be as good again as he was a year ago, but depth is a bit of a concern.

Grade: A

Secondary

One position that could be a weakness on this defense this season is the cornerback position. Top cornerback Charvarius Ward remains, coming off of a season in which he ranked 4th among cornerbacks with a 83.2 PFF grade in 17 starts, but he had never previously exceeded 69.5 in a season in four prior years in the league, so there’s a good chance he is unable to be quite as good again in 2023 and, even if he can repeat the best year of his career, the 49ers have a lot of concerns behind him at the position. Jimmie Ward and Emmanuel Moseley both left in free agency and, while the former was a slot specialist who missed 5 games and played just 509 snaps total, and the latter was limited to 312 snaps in 5 games by injury, they still had impressive grades of 76.1 and 70.9 respectively on PFF and the 49ers don’t have any other cornerbacks who are likely to play at that level, even in a limited role.

The 49ers will almost definitely continue using 2021 5th pick Deommodore Lenior as one of their top-3 cornerbacks, after he played 887 snaps and made 13 starts a year ago, with Jimmie Ward and Emmanuel Moseley both missing significant time with injury, and they added veteran Isaiah Oliver in free agency on a 2-year, 6.75 million dollar deal, which should lock him in as the other top-3 cornerback, with Oliver and Lenoir competing to be the nominal #2 cornerback. 

Lenoir struggled in that extended role last season though, posting a 55.9 grade on PFF, and there’s no guarantee he’s any better in 2023, as he wasn’t a high draft pick and also struggled on 238 snaps as a rookie. Oliver, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2018 and has shown flashes of impressive play, surpassing 70 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league, including each of the past two seasons, but he’s also missed a total of 20 games over those three seasons combined and, in his only two full seasons as a starter in his career (2019 and 2020), he finished below 60 on PFF, so he’s never played at a high level for an extended period of time. He still has potential if he can stay healthy, but he’s not really a reliable option.

With Lenoir likely to struggle and Oliver unreliable, the 49ers could need significant playing time out of their reserve cornerbacks. Samuel Womack, a 2022 5th round pick who flashed potential on 146 rookie year snaps, seems like the best of the bunch, but he’s still an unproven player who wasn’t drafted highly. Ambry Thomas was a higher pick, going in the 3rd round in 2021, but he struggled mightily with a 46.1 PFF grade on 334 snaps as a rookie and wasn’t much better while only playing 41 snaps in his second season in the league last year. The 49ers also added South Alabama’s Darrell Luter in the 5th round of the draft and signed veteran Myles Hartsfield, though the former would likely struggle in a significant rookie year role, while the latter has finished below 60 on PFF in all three seasons in the league, playing 475 snaps per snaps as a mostly a slot specialist with the Panthers.

At safety, the 49ers return Talanoa Hufanga and Tashaun Gipson, who were solid with PFF grades of 68.8 and 67.2 respectively last season, while starting all 17 games. Hufanaga should have a similar season in 2023. He was only a 6th round pick in 2021, but flashed potential on 395 snaps as a rookie, before being a solid starter a year ago. He might not have much more untapped upside, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued being a solid starter for years to come. 

Gipson, on the other hand, is now going into his age 33 season and is much less safe of a bet to continue being a solid starter. Gipson has been a starter for most of his 11-year NFL career (149 starts), but he hasn’t always been the most consistent player, finishing below 60 on PFF in four of those seasons and, now well into his 30s, there’s a good chance he ends up struggling this season. Perhaps with that in mind, the 49ers used a 3rd round pick on Penn State’s Ja’Ayir Brown as a potential long-term replacement, but it’s unclear how much of a positive impact he’ll be able to make in year one. With Gipson potentially being a liability and questions at cornerback, this secondary is the relative weakness of this defense, but this isn’t a bad unit either.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The 49ers still have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, but there are questions at the quarterback position, with Brock Purdy being inexperienced and coming off of a major injury and Sam Darnold and Trey Lance both having upside, but also considerable downside. They also aren’t quite as talented overall as they have been in recent years, especially on the offensive line, which has lost four of five starters just since a couple years ago, which could easily end up being a concern, especially when you pair it with their questions at the quarterback position. 

The 49ers are still a high level team in by far the least talented of the two conferences, so they should have a pretty clear path to winning a bunch of regular season games and making a run into the post-season, but I wouldn’t put them in the top tier contender category, as most of the top teams in the AFC are still better than the 49ers and I wouldn’t say they are the top team in the NFC either. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 12-5, 1st in NFC West