49ers

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (11-4) at Arizona Cardinals (10-5)

The Cardinals proved themselves last week to be a very good football team, going into Seattle, where no one has won in two years, and winning despite losing the turnover battle by 2. Teams rarely are able to overcome a -2 turnover margin, winning just about 17.7% of the time. Winning despite losing the turnover battle by 2 is hard; winning as double digit underdogs despite losing the turnover battle by 2 is even harder. In fact, that was just the 5th time a team had done that since 1989, rising the winning percentage of double digit underdogs who lose the turnover battle by 2 to 4.0%.

It wasn’t just last week. The Cardinals are doing a very impressive job on the season. They are moving the chains at a solid 71.22% rate, while their strong defense is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68.37% rate, a differential of 2.86% that ranks 11th in the NFL. They’re a comparable football team to their opponents here, the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers rank a little higher, coming in at 8th, moving the chains at a 70.70% rate, as opposed to 67.20% for their opponents, a differential of 3.50%. However, these are definitely comparable teams. In spite of that, the Cardinals are 1.5 point home underdogs here. Rate of moving the chains differential suggests this line should be closer to 2 in favor of Arizona, so we’re getting some significant line value here.

That doesn’t even take into account that Arizona is a much better home team than road team. Arizona has been money at home this season, going 6-1, as opposed to 4-4 on the road. It’s not just their record. It’s how much they’re winning by and who they are beating. They are outscoring opponents by 10.57 points per game at home, which includes that home loss, which came against Seattle. Their average margin of victory is 14.33 points per game. In that 6-1 record is two wins by double digits over likely division winners Indianapolis and Carolina (by a combined 45 points) and a win over a Detroit team week 2 that was much better to start the season than to end the season.

This home dominance is nothing new. Since 2006, they are 42-25 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.37 points per game. On the road, they are 22-44 over that time period, getting outscored by 6.12 points per game. Given that, I don’t think the normal 3 points for home field advantage is appropriate for this team. On top of that, when they are underdogs or small home favorites (2.5 or less), they’ve essentially been an auto-bet over that time period, going 29-12 ATS. Whenever they just need to win to cover a spread at home, they usually get the job done and that’s the case here. Now that they have arguably their best team of that time period (remember, even in their NFC Championship year in 2008, they went 9-7 in the regular season), they are an incredibly tough team to beat at home, as I demonstrated earlier.

The 49ers haven’t done a good job this season against tough opponents. Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers have both been incredible this season against bad teams, teams that are currently .500 or worse, going 9-0 in those games, winning by an average of 18.56 points per game. Colin Kaepernick has completed 137 of 216 (63.4%) for 1965 yards (9.10 YPA), 14 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 303 yards and 4 touchdowns on 52 carries.

However, against teams that are currently better than .500, they are just 2-4, with both wins coming at home. In those games, Colin Kaepernick is 85 of 166 (51.2%) for 922 yards (5.55 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while rushing for 197 yards and no touchdowns on 36 carries. The Cardinals’ tough defense is even tougher at home and could easily give Kaepernick a lot of trouble. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is doing a terrific job this season and will have a great game plan to confuse Kaepernick and he has the personnel to execute it, led by Calais Campbell, Karlos Dansby, Daryl Washington, and Patrick Peterson, all of whom are playing at a Pro-Bowl caliber level.

The one concern and the reason why this isn’t a bigger play: teams are 36-56 ATS since 1989 off of a win as road underdogs of 10 or more. It makes sense. Pulling off a huge upset like that tends to make teams overvalued and overconfident and they can experience a hangover effect when they fall back to earth the next week. However, there are two things that nullify that to an extent here. One, I don’t think the Cardinals are overvalued here. As I illustrated earlier, I actually think the Cardinals are undervalued, in spite of last week’s huge win.

On top of that, for whatever reason, the line moved from a pick ‘em to 1.5 in favor of San Francisco over the past week, despite Arizona’s big win. We didn’t lose line value. In fact, just the opposite happened. Two, the Cardinals absolutely need this win to stay alive in the playoff race so that could nullify some of their overconfidence and the potential hangover effect. It’s still a concern, which is why it isn’t a bigger play, but there’s enough here for me to be pretty confident in Arizona.

Arizona Cardinals 17 San Francisco 49ers 10 Upset Pick +105

Pick against spread: Arizona +1.5

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, 49ers, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (4-10) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4)

Colin Kaepernick has had his fair share of issues this season, but against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, Colin Kaepernick has completed 97 of 156 (62.2%) for 1356 yards (8.69 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 230 yards and 3 touchdowns on 39 carries in 7 games. They’ve won all 7 of those games by an average of 21.57 points per game and covered each time. This is nothing new, as the 49ers are 23-11 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since Jim Harbaugh took over before the 2011 season.

That’s certainly the case here against a 4-10 Atlanta team, against whom they are favored by 12. Atlanta isn’t in a good spot here as they have to face Carolina next week in Atlanta. They won’t sleepwalk through this nationally televised 2012 NFC Championship rematch, but with such a big game coming up next week as well, they could easily not be as focused as they need to be to keep this one close. Teams are 37-67 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more.

Also working against the Falcons is the fact that this is a night game on the West Coast against a West Coast opponent. While this game will run from 8:30 to about 11:30 or 12:00 on the Falcons’ internal clocks, it’ll run from 5:30 to 8:30 or 9:00 on the 49ers’ internal clock. While the Falcons’ will be internally winding down energy wise in the 2nd half, the 49ers will still be going. Sounds crazy? Well maybe a little, but West Coast teams are 48-20 ATS at night at home against East Coast teams since 1989 so there definitely seems to be something to this.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because this line is a little big. The 49ers are moving the chains at a 69.90% rate, as opposed to 66.25% for their opponents, a differential of 3.65% that is 8th in the NFL. The Falcons, meanwhile, move the chains at a 73.38% rate, as opposed to 75.17% for their opponents, a differential of -1.79% that ranks 20th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 8.5, instead of 12, which is a big difference. Still, the 49ers’ average margin of victory against teams with losing records (21.57), the Falcons having to face the Panthers next week, and the time zone aspect are enough for me to be pretty confident in the 49ers.

San Francisco 49ers 34 Atlanta Falcons 16

Pick against spread: San Francisco -12

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, 49ers, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9)

The 49ers are in a good spot with no distractions on the horizon, with only a home game against Atlanta next on their schedule. Teams are 84-54 ATS since 1989 as favorites of 5 or more on the road before being favorites of 10 or more at home. In this spot, the 49ers can be as focused as they need to be in order to dispatch of an inferior opponent.

The 49ers have also been dominant against inferior teams this season. Colin Kaepernick has had his fair share of issues this season, but against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, Colin Kaepernick has completed 105 of 166 for 1565 yards, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 210 yards and 3 touchdowns on 42 carries in 7 games. They’ve won all 7 of those games by an average of 19.3 points per game and covered each time. This is nothing new, as the 49ers are 22-11 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since Jim Harbaugh took over before the 2011 season.

As long as the line stays under 6, the 49ers definitely seem like the right side. There are three things that keep this from being a bigger play. One, the public is all over San Francisco and I hate heavy public leans. Two, the 49ers could be in a trap situation going across the country to play a 1 PM ET game as a West Coast team after the biggest win of their season over hated rival Seattle last week.

Three, Football Outsiders has Tampa Bay ranked 13th in the NFL in terms of DVOA. It not that hard to see why, considering their point differential is just -47, despite their 4-9 record. I don’t have them nearly that high as they are moving the chains at a 66.94% rate, as opposed to 71.99% for their opponents, a differential of -5.05% that is 28th in the NFL. I think they’ve been too reliant on an unsustainable +13 turnover margin to buoy their team, but Football Outsiders ranking them so high is enough to scare me off a little. San Francisco should be the right side though.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: San Francisco -5

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, 49ers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (11-1) at San Francisco 49ers (8-4)

The Seahawks blew the Saints last week, winning 34-7 on Monday Night Football. Ordinarily, teams carry over that momentum off of a Monday night blowout into their next game, going 31-13 ATS since 2002 off of a win of 21 or more. However, I don’t think the Seahawks were as good as they looked last week. I’m not saying they’re bad at all. In fact, they might be the best team in the NFL. But they’re not 27 point win over the Saints good. Away from their incredible home field advantage, they could be exposed here in their biggest road test of the season.

They ordinarily don’t do well as road underdogs, going 14-24 ATS as road underdogs since 2007, including 8-17 ATS after a home game (teams generally cover at a high rate in their 2nd straight road game because they are adjusted to being away from home). They’ve yet to be road underdogs yet this season. In fact, they’ve been road underdogs just once over the past 2 seasons, last year in San Francisco. They covered that game as 7.5 point underdogs because the 49ers declined a safety that would have been it a 9 point game, in favor of just running out the clock.

We also didn’t know how good the Seahawks were at the time. We do now, which is why this line is at 2.5 points, so we’re not getting any line value. The 49ers are a huge test for the Seahawks on the road. This game also means a lot more for the 49ers than the Seahawks. I’m not saying the Seahawks will completely sleepwalk through this game, but they are essentially locked into the #1 seed, unless they completely implode. The 49ers, meanwhile, need every win they can get to stay in the playoff picture and this is also a big revenge game for the 49ers. The 49ers are 15-7 ATS against teams that beat them in their last matchup, since Jim Harbaugh took over in 2011.

I’m not that confident, however. The 49ers have had a lot of issues with top level teams this season. Against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, Colin Kaepernick has completed 105 of 166 for 1565 yards, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 210 yards and 3 touchdowns on 42 carries in 6 games. They’ve won all 6 of those games by an average of 19.3 points per game. In their other 6 games, Kaepernick has completed 70 of 137 for 747 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while rushing for 166 yards and no touchdowns on 27 carries. They are 2-4 in those 6 games. They should still be the right side, but I’m not that confident.

San Francisco 49ers 20 Seattle Seahawks 13

Pick against spread: San Francisco -2.5

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers, Uncategorized

Last week: 6 (+0)

Record: 7-4

Colin Kaepernick has had his share of issues this season, but he’s played well against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, completing 86 of 138 for 1290 yards, 10 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 189 yards and 3 touchdowns on 38 carries in 6 games. They’ve won all 5 of those games by an average of 21.3 points per game. He and the 49ers will have another chance at a blowout this week against an overrated Rams team.

Week 12 Studs

QB Colin Kaepernick

C Jonathan Goodwin

RG Alex Boone

RE Justin Smith

ROLB Aldon Smith

CB Carlos Rogers

SS Donte Whitner

Week 12 Duds

None

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St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, 49ers, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (5-6) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

The 49ers blew out the Redskins on Monday Night Football, 27-6. This is obviously good because the 49ers needed that win to stay in the 6th seed over the Cardinals, but also because teams almost always tend to carry the momentum from a huge Monday Night blowout into the next week. Teams are 30-13 ATS since 2002 off of a Monday Night win by 21 or more.

The 49ers in general seem to blowout bad teams. Colin Kaepernick has had his share of issues this season, but he’s played well against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, completing 86 of 138 for 1290 yards, 10 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 189 yards and 3 touchdowns on 38 carries in 6 games. They’ve won all 5 of those games by an average of 21.3 points per game. This is nothing new, as the 49ers are 21-11 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since Jim Harbaugh took over before the 2011 season. They generally take care of inferior competition pretty easily.

The Rams are definitely inferior competition. Sure, they’ve won their last 2 games by 21+ to put them at 5-6, but they’re not as good as their record. The way they’re winning is unsustainable. Since 1989, there have been 25 instances of a team winning by 17 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. The Rams have done that 3 times this season (and one of their other wins came against Jacksonville).

After their first game of that type, they got blown out in Carolina 30-15. After their second, they beat Chicago 42-21. However, teams are 6-18 ATS since 1989 off of that type of game, which I think is definitely worth noting. Teams tend to be overconfident and overvalued in that situation and I think both are true here. The Rams won’t be able to consistently rely on return touchdowns, big plays, and winning the turnover battle, especially not against a team like San Francisco, just like they couldn’t against Carolina.

They couldn’t do that against the 49ers the last time they played each other, losing by 24, and that was at home. And that was when they still had Sam Bradford under center and when San Francisco was without Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith and struggling during a 1-2 start. That line was 3 in the road, which would translate to about 9 at home, which is right around where this line is. I don’t think that’s right, considering how the 49ers blew them out and what’s happened since.

The only real way the Rams are better since then is they now have Zac Stacy, who has emerged as a feature back in this off-season. However, he might miss this game with a concussion, which would leave Benny Cunningham as the starter. Sure, he rushed for 109 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts last week, but that was against the Bears’ pathetic run defense. He rushed for just 6 yards on 4 carries against the 49ers earlier this year and, again, that was when the 49ers were without Willis and Smith. The 49ers should be able to blow the Rams out here. This is my Pick of the Week as long as it’s in single digits.

San Francisco 49ers 34 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: San Francisco -9.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, 49ers, Commanders, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (6-4) at Washington Redskins (3-7)

The 49ers have been deadly off of a loss in the Jim Harbaugh era. It might not seem that way because they’ve lost back-to-back games on separate occasions twice this season. However, they are 6-3 ATS off of a loss in the Jim Harbaugh era, including 8-3 ATS if you include week 1 losses off of a post-season loss. Even that’s misleading because those 3 ATS losses include a 14 point win as 16.5 point favorites and a 7 point win as 7.5 point favorites, a game they would have covered against the Seahawks if Jim Harbaugh hadn’t declined a safety, in favor of just running the clock out. Last week, they were the responsible for the Saints not covering at home under Sean Payton for first time since 2010, snapping a streak of 13 streak covers with a push.

They’ve lost off of a loss just twice in the Jim Harbaugh era (as opposed to 8 wins), both times this season, and one of those was the closest game the Saints had played at home under Sean Payton in 14 games. The other one was a huge blowout at home at the hands of the Colts, but, when you look at the whole sample size, that’s clearly the fluke. Meanwhile, those 8 wins came by an average of 18 points per game. Finally, in their only instance in the Jim Harbaugh era off of back-to-back losses, they won 35-11 in St. Louis as 3 point favorites. They could easily blowout the Redskins here.

The 49ers usually take care of business and dominate weaker opponents, which is exactly what the Redskins are. In the Jim Harbaugh era, they are 20-11 ATS as 3+ point favorites, including 7-4 ATS on the road. Colin Kaepernick is struggling on the season, but he’s played well against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, completing 71 of 114 for 1055 yards, 7 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 169 yards and 3 touchdowns on 29 carries in 5 games. They’ve won all 5 of those games by an average of 21.4 points per game.

Good defenses seem to be able to stifle Kaepernick, but Washington has one of the worst defenses in the NFL, so he should be able to have a great game. The 49ers defense is as good as it’s ever been, so that could very easily lead to a blowout win here, against the Redskins team that is essentially eliminated and going through what appears to be an internal struggle. They might just through in the towel on this season. The 49ers are built to blowout bad teams if they can establish themselves.

The 49ers are also at an advantage because this game will be at night and West Coast teams dominate East Coast teams at night, no matter where the game is played, covering at about a 67% rate. The Redskins could be getting tired towards the end of this game, while the 49ers will be alert the whole time. The 49ers have no distractions, with a home game against the Rams next up, coming off a loss, and should be able to take care of business by blowing out an inferior opponent.

San Francisco 49ers 34 Washington Redskins 17

Pick against spread: San Francisco -5.5

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers, Uncategorized

Last week: 5 (-1)

Record: 6-3

There’s no shame in losing to the Panthers, even at home, because of how good the Panthers are. Losing Vernon Davis mid-game certainly didn’t help. The 49ers might not have a huge chance of winning in New Orleans this week, because no one does, but going forward, the rest of their schedule isn’t hard. They’ll probably be favored in their final 6 games, including at home for Seattle, who isn’t the same team on the road. They probably won’t win the division, but they’ll be well positioned going into the post-season.

Week 10 Studs

LT Joe Staley

ROLB Dan Skuta

MLB Patrick Willis

Week 10 Duds

QB Colin Kaepernick

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San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, 49ers, Saints, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (6-3) at New Orleans Saints (7-2)

It’s arguable the Saints’ win over the Cowboys was the most lopsided contest in NFL history. While the Saints set the NFL record with 40 first downs, the Cowboys ran just 43 plays. The Saints’ +31 first down margin was the best in NFL history. The closest came when the Steelers had 29 more first downs than the Browns in 1999 in a 43-0 victory. They outgained the Cowboys by 431 yards, the most lopsided yardage battle since the Patriots in a 59-0 victory over the Titans in 2009. It would have been even more lopsided if the Saints hadn’t muffed a punt and the Cowboys hadn’t recovered an onside kick. Because of those 2 things, the Saints had just 8 drives and scored touchdowns on 7 of them. It was an absurd destruction.

The Saints have now not just won, but covered in 14 straight home games under Sean Payton. They’ve won these games by an average of 22 points per game, with only two being decided by 10 points or less and none being decided by fewer than 6 points. As a result of last week, the Saints now lead the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential. They are moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 70% for opponents. The 49ers, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents, ranking 10th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 9 points, before you even take into account the Saints’ home dominance.

So Saints -3.5 should be a no brainer right? Well, not necessarily. The 49ers are coming off of a loss to the Panthers and they have been deadly off of a loss in the Jim Harbaugh era. They are 6-3 ATS off a loss under Jim Harbaugh, including 8-3 ATS if you take into account week 1 games off of a playoff loss. If you look closer, that’s even more impressive as those two non-covers included a 14 point win as 16.5 point favorites and a 7 point win as 7.5 point favorites, a game they would have covered against the Seahawks if Jim Harbaugh hadn’t declined a safety, in favor of just running the clock out.

With the exception of a fluky home loss to the Colts, they have only lost back-to-back games once in the Jim Harbaugh era. If you exclude that Colts game, they have won all 8 of their regular season games off of a loss by an average of 18 points per game. This line has actually shifted past the key number of 3 in the past week, as it was at 2.5 last week and the public is still all over the Saints. I hate backing huge publicly backed sides and that could be an overreaction to the 49ers loss to a very underrated Panthers team. Of course, it could also be a proper reaction to the Saints’ dominant home performance over the Cowboys.

The 49ers are also in a good spot. Non-divisional road dogs are 37-24 ATS before being non-divisional road favorites. The 49ers have no distractions on the horizon with a trip to Washington up next. The Saints, meanwhile, are in a bad spot as favorites before a Thursday Night Game. Teams are 27-50 ATS in that spot since 2008, including 11-26 ATS before a divisional game. We saw both the Titans and Colts fall victim to this big time last week, both losing straight up as huge home favorites. However, it’s unlikely that the Saints overlook the 49ers in favor of a trip to the 2-7 Falcons next week.

Besides, teams are 50-24 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008. Teams are 9-11 ATS in that situation before a Thursday Night Game since 1989. That’s not a big sample size and it’s not a strong trend or anything, but I think, if anything, the non-divisional home favorites before divisional road favorites trend should cancel out the Thursday Night trend. I don’t think the Saints will be nearly as distracted as the Colts and Titans were last week, if they are at all.

It’s not a massive play on the Saints or anything, but I think it’s essentially an auto-bet on the Saints at home at this point. The Saints could also carry over momentum from last week’s win, as teams are 45-28 ATS since 1989 off of a game in which they score 48 or more points. If Vernon Davis is ruled out with his concussion, I’ll make this a high confidence pick because Colin Kaepernick has been pretty lost without him this season, but for now it’s a medium confidence pick.

New Orleans Saints 27 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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