49ers

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers (5-2) at Arizona Cardinals (4-3)

In NFC West matchups, the rule of thumb is to pick the home team. Since 2007, no other division comes close to covering at home at a rate as high as the NFC West, which is 103-74 ATS at in that time period. San Francisco, St. Louis, Seattle, and Arizona are all teams that are good at home and bad on the road generally. Given that, it makes sense that inside the division, the home team generally covers in NFC West divisional contests and that’s exactly what happens.

In that same time period, the home team in an NFC West divisional matchup covers at a record of 38-24 ATS. As well as the 49ers played last year, they still managed to go 1-2 ATS on the road in the division, 0-2-1 ATS depending on the lines (some had Seattle +2 rather than +1.5). They lost straight up in Arizona, beat St. Louis by just a touchdown, and beat Seattle by just 2, all of which were games they were favored in. There’s not a lot of data on this type of situation, but home dogs of 7+ in the NFC West have covered 2 of the 3 instances in that time period. Home dogs of 7+ cover at a high rate anyway, regardless, going 99-78 ATS since 2002.

Besides, the Cardinals tend to play a lot of close games anyway. This makes sense because they have a good defense, as much as their offense struggles. Dating back to last year, they’ve only lost 4 games by more than 7, out of 11 total losses, including only once at home, 32-20 to the Steelers. This week’s game is even more likely to be close because the 49ers are a more defensive oriented team as well. Some places have this line at 6.5 (-110), but pay extra for the +7 if you can because you might need it. +7 is at -120 right now.

Besides, this spread seems a little weird. Last week, San Francisco was anywhere from -7 to -8.5 at home for Seattle and they didn’t even cover, winning by just 7. Now they’re -7 in Arizona? Arizona beat Seattle and both teams have the same record. I’ll agree that Seattle is the better team right now, but 6 points better? I don’t agree with that, especially considering the home/road disparity in NFC divisional games.

Meanwhile, Arizona was +7 in Minnesota and pushed and now they’re +7 at home for San Francisco? Minnesota beat San Francisco and has the same record as them. Once again, I’ll agree the 49ers are the better team, but 6 points better? I don’t agree with that. Neither do the measures for calculating line value either. The yards per play differential method gives us a line of San Francisco -9.5 and the rate of sustaining drives method gives of a line of San Francisco -3. If you average those two out, you get lower than -7 and that’s not even taking into account that Alex Smith isn’t playing well right now and that they’re unlikely to continue rushing for 5.9 YPC, because no one does that. That’s the main reason behind their #1 ranking in yards per play.

Plus, just look at the spread last year. San Francisco was 10-2 and Arizona was 5-7 and the spread was just 3 and the Cardinals still covered and won. The 49ers aren’t as good of a team as they were last year because they aren’t winning the turnover battle like they were last year. This line is ridiculous. Normally I’d think this line was too good to be true, but the public likes San Francisco and the line still isn’t moving.

I know I mentioned early this week that I think favorites will have a good week this week, in order to help bring the dogs/favorites record eventually to within 10 games of .500, which it’s been in each of the last 10 years at least (right now it’s at 63-39 in favor of dogs). That doesn’t mean dogs should not be bet at all. It’s perfectly fine to take a dog if the favorite is publicly backed like the 49ers are this week. I really like Arizona this week. I also like the under this week. This should be a close, low scoring game between two of the top-4 scoring defenses in the league. Besides, the under hits at a record of 78-46 in NFC West divisional games since 2007.

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Arizona covers)

Sharps lean: ARZ 12 SF 6

Final update: Line in Las Vegas Hilton is 6.5, but still the lean is on Arizona. I really like Arizona at +7. Pay extra for the extra half point if you can. If you can’t, it’s a smaller play.

San Francisco 49ers 16 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Arizona +7 (-120) 4 units

Total: Under 38 (-110) 1 unit

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San Francisco 49ers: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 7 (+1)

Record: 5-2

San Francisco would be lower if there were more good teams this year. I don’t trust Alex Smith and apparently neither does his coaching staff right now because all he’s doing is checking down. I also don’t expect this running game to continue to average 5.9 yards per carry because, you know, no one does that. That being said, if they were in the AFC, they’d probably be the 2nd best team in there. It’s not a very good conference. Unfortunately, since they’re in the NFC, we rule them out to be this year’s team to goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs.

Studs

RB Frank Gore: Rushed for 131 yards (42 after contact) on 16 carries, 2 broken tackles, caught 5 passes for 51 yards on 5 attempts

LG Mike Iupati: Did not allow a pressure on 27 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 2 attempts

C Jonathan Goodwin: Did not allow a pressure on 27 pass block snaps, run blocked for 98 yards on 8 attempts

RG Alex Boone: Did not allow a pressure on 27 pass block snaps, run blocked for 16 yards on 2 attempts

CB Carlos Rogers: Allowed 2 catches for 5 yards on 3 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

CB Chris Culliver: Allowed 2 catches for 13 yards on 6 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 2 solo tackles

K David Akers: 4 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 74.5 yards per kickoff, 20.0 opponent’s average starting distance, 2/2 FG (28, 38)

P Andy Lee: 5 punts for 228 yards, 4 inside 20, 2 returns for 5 yards, 44.6 net yards per punt

Duds

QB Alex Smith: 14 of 23 for 140 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, 1 hit as thrown, 2 throw aways, 66.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 5 of 26 drop backs (2 sacks, 0-3, 2 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown)

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San Francisco 49ers: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 6 (-1)

Record: 4-2

Last year, the San Francisco 49ers had a turnover differential of +28, 4th highest in NFL history. I said all offseason that would be unsustainable, mentioning that since 2002, teams with a turnover differential of +15 or more, on average, have a turnover differential of +2.1. 6 games into the NFL season and the 49ers’ turnover differential is…+2. Now, you’re probably thinking, didn’t you say that would lead to the 49ers missing the playoffs…yeah…well…stop talking.

It could still conceivably happen in a tougher NFC West to a team that has yet to beat a team with a winning record, but I didn’t predict that they would become the league’s best team in terms of yards per play differential and 4th in rate of sustained drives differential. That’s offset the decrease in turnover differential somewhat, although they won’t win 13 games again. I also don’t think they’re legitimate Super Bowl contenders, which is why I’ve consistently ranked them out of the top-5.

Studs

CB Carlos Rogers: Allowed 4 catches for 31 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 1 blitz

MLB Patrick Willis: Allowed 1 catch for 4 yards on 3 attempts, 8 solo tackle, 1 assist, 6 stops, 2 quarterback hurries on 4 blitzes

RE Justin Smith: 3 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 5 stops

LOLB: Ahmad Brooks: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

QB Alex Smith: 19 of 30 for 200 yards and 3 interceptions, 2 throw aways, 2 batted passes, 1 drop, 67.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 16 of 36 drop backs (4 sacks, 1 scramble, 6 of 11, 2 interceptions, 2 throw aways)

RT Anthony Davis: Allowed 3 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 6 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

C Jonathan Goodwin: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 11 yards on 5 attempts

ROLB Aldon Smith: 1 quarterback hurry on 24 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

NT Isaac Sopoaga: Did not record a pressure on 12 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle

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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, 49ers, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (4-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-2)

On Thursday Night, the rule of thumb is to always take a home favorite. It makes sense. Favorites tend to be proven, veteran teams, or at least in comparison to the road team. Meanwhile, the road team has to travel on a short week, which is an obvious disadvantage, especially for a less proven, less veteran team. Road favorites cover at about a 50% clip because the advantage of being a proven, veteran team on a short week normally cancels out the disadvantage of being a road team on a short week.

This week we have a home favorite and the 49ers are the more, proven veteran team here, even just a year and a half into the Jim Harbaugh era. Home favorites are 45-24 ATS on Thursday Night since 1989, including 18-9 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more. The issue is that both of these trends seem to cancel out when it’s a divisional game. We saw it when Cleveland went to Baltimore (but not when Chicago went to Green Bay). Home divisional favorites are just 17-15 ATS on Thursday Night in the division, including just 8-8 ATS as a favorite of 7 or more. However, because this is an NFC West game, I don’t think that will be as big of a factor.

A rule of thumb in NFC West games is to always pick the home team. NFC West home teams are 38-23 ATS in a divisional game since 2007. Even the 49ers, as good as they were last year, were just 1-2 ATS on the road. This makes sense. NFC West teams tend to be better home teams than road teams in general. In that same time period, no division is better in general at home than the NFC West, which is 103-73 ATS at home.

Even though NFC West games also tend to be lower scoring, home favorites of a touchdown or more also have no problem covering within the division, going 12-3 ATS since 2007. NFC West divisional games also tend to go under the total as the under is 38-23 in divisional games in that same time period. Thursday Night games tend to go under more often than not anyway as the under is 69-51 on Thursday Nights since 1989. When one team is favored by a touchdown or more, it goes under even more frequently, 28-13, so I’m once again putting 1 unit on the under on Thursday night.

It helps San Francisco’s case to cover that their opponent is the Seahawks. They’re the perfect example of this division, great at home, poor on the road. Since 2007, they are 15-29 ATS on the road, 30-14 ATS at home. As road dogs of more than a touchdown, they’re 4-12 ATS. I’ve correctly predicted 5 of their 6 games this year, all for big plays, using pretty much solely that fact, including hits on 3 money line plays as home dogs to Dallas, Green Bay, and New England.

Speaking of that win over New England last week, because it was so “surprising,” it makes them a little overrated right now. Really, that win was not surprising at all, if you know anything about what type of team they are at home, especially as dogs of 3 or more. In those situations, they’re 15-4 ATS since 2007. They’re not a better team than New England. Not only is that win causing them to be slightly overrated right now, it also puts them in a bad spot this week. Road dogs of 7+ are 22-42 ATS off of a home win as dogs. Furthermore, teams are 7-14 ATS on Thursday Night off a win as home dogs, 3-9 ATS off a win as home dogs of 3+.

San Francisco, meanwhile, is in a good spot coming off an upset loss to the New York Giants, although not as good of a spot as the Seahawks’ spot is bad. There’s no real trend that says teams bounce back off of losses, but good, well coached teams always seem to do so. Bill Belichick is 35-19 ATS in that spot since 2000. Mike McCarthy is 21-13 ATS in that spot since 2006. Mike Tomlin is 16-10 ATS in that spot since 2007. Sean Payton is 20-12 ATS in that spot since 2006. Of the current NFL Head Coaches who have won a Super Bowl with their current team, only Tom Coughlin (26-23 ATS) doesn’t have a very impressive ATS record off a loss.

Jim Harbaugh doesn’t have a Super Bowl ring yet, but everything he’s done so far suggests he’ll be in that group someday. He’s already got a fairly impressive resume off a loss, going 5-0 ATS and 5-0 SU. Those 5 straight up wins came by an average of 19.2 points per game. Looking forward to the future, the 49ers are also in a nice spot as home divisional favorites before being road divisional favorites (they go to Arizona next week). Teams are 109-81 ATS in that spot since 1989.

Finally, we’re getting line value with the 49ers. People who read this frequently know I love to go on and on about yards per play differential. Well, I have another metric that I think works well with yards per play differential, which I’ll go to in a second. First, the 49ers still rank 1st in the league in yards per play differential. If you take the difference between Seattle’s yards per play differential (not too shabby at 12th) and San Francisco’s, divide by .15 and add 3 points to San Francisco’s side for home field advantage, you get a line of 11.5, which suggests 4.5 points of line value with the 49ers.

One issue I noticed with using solely this metric, which a lot of bettors do, is it puts too much value on teams that get a lot of big plays, but can’t sustain drives (or conversely, teams that don’t allow a lot of big plays, but can’t get off the field defensively). Think about it. You pass for 30 yards and then gain no yards on your next 3 plays and have to punt. That’s 7.5 yards per play, which is incredibly impressive, but you didn’t sustain a drive. So I’ve essentially created a new statistic called, rate of sustaining drives, not to replace the traditional metric, but to see if any teams are much better in one than the other.

Basically, how I created it is I took first downs and divided it by first downs + turnovers + punts + failed 4th downs. Basically, what it essentially measures is, on any given 1st and 10, how often does a team get another 1st down or sustain the drive. Turnovers (whether traditional or on downs) and punts are obviously failures to achieve 1st and 10. This measures first downs divided by chances at a first down (first downs + failures to achieve 1st and 10).

You can also do this for the defense, how often they can get the opposing team off the field on any given 1st and 10. The statistic is in the form of a percentage and you can subtract the offensive one from the defensive one to get the differential. For example, San Francisco is at +9.9%, while Seattle is at -0.1%. The difference between the percents is 10, divide by 1.5 this time (which conveniently works very well with the numbers) and add 3 points either way for home field and you get a line of San Francisco -10. It’s not exactly the same as the yards per play differential true line result, but it’s similar enough that it confirms we are getting line value with the 49ers.

I rarely take favorites for big plays, but that’s what I’m going to do here, even though there is a slight public lean on San Francisco. Everything I can find, every trend, every metric for determining true line suggests that the 49ers should cover here and win with ease. It’s not a 5 unit pick of the week, but it’s 4 units as long as I can get it at -7. If I decide not to do a 5 unit pick of the week (I have a good one in mind), this will be a co-pick of the week. For the record, I am 8-2 on picks I call pick of the week or co-pick of the week. I’m also putting one unit on the under.

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Seattle covers)

San Francisco 49ers 23 Seattle Seahawks 10

Pick against spread: San Francisco -7 (-110) 4 units

Over/under: Under 37 (-110) 1 unit

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New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, 49ers, Giants

New York Giants (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-1)

The San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the league. At least that’s what yards per play differential says and it’s not even really close. They are gaining 1.9 yards per play more than they are allowing and they rank in the top-5 in both yards per play and yards per play allowed, something no other team in the league can say. In fact, no other team has a yards per play differential higher than 1.0. The Giants, meanwhile, are even at 0.0 yards per play. An old gambling formula says to divide the difference by .15 and add 3 points either way for home field advantage. Given that, the 49ers should be -15.5 point favorites this week.

If that sounds absolutely ridiculous to you, you’re not alone. That sounds absolutely ridiculous to me too and I love that formula. This is one of those instances where it’s necessary to use a human element. In the last 2 weeks, the 49ers have outgained their opponents by 2.7 yards per play and 3.5 yards per play respectively, translating, not surprisingly, to a 34-0 win and a 45-3 win.

Before the last two weeks, however, the 49ers were outside of the top-5 in yards per play differential. They weren’t bad or anything, but they didn’t look nearly as impressive as they do now. What they’ve done the last 2 weeks is incredibly impressive. I don’t want to take anything away from them. But I don’t think it’s fair to put so much stock into 2 games against crappy teams that a team goes from being good to being miles and miles away better than everyone else and deserving of being 15.5 point home favorites against a worthy opponent. I do think we’re getting some line value with the 49ers, but not 9 points worth. Remember, the 49ers have yet to beat a team who currently has a winning record.

However, the public seems to think we’re getting line value with the Giants and they have made the Giants public underdogs. In spite of that, this line keeps climbing, which is indicative of a trap line. Between the line value and the likely trap line, you’d think this would be an easy pick for me, but it’s not because there are some very good trends on the Giants’ side.

I mentioned how well the 49ers have done the last two weeks. Well, that may have made them overvalued and overconfident. Teams are 18-34 ATS since 1989 after back-to-back wins of 24 or more. The Giants, meanwhile, are in a “nobody believes in us” spot, which they normally do well in. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, they are 38-21 ATS as underdogs.

Since Coughlin took over in 2004, they are also very good on the road and in the 1st half of the season. Since 2004, they are 48-25 ATS on the road, as opposed to just 34-37 ATS at home. As road dogs, they are 31-16 ATS. In that same time period, they are 45-18 straight up and 39-24 ATS from weeks 1-8 and 35-39 straight up and 39-35 ATS after week 8. They’re also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites. Teams tend to be extra focused on that spot, going 73-48 ATS since 2011.

At the end of the day, I’m taking the 49ers because the combination of line value and a potential trap line, while betting against a public underdog is too good to pass on. However, it’s not a big play at all. The Giants thrive in this exact situation (and have 2 other trends in their favor), even if the 49ers do appear to be the significantly better team.

Public lean: NY Giants (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if San Francisco covers)

Sharps lean: SF 16 NYG 10

Final update: Sharps like San Francisco, but I still can’t put more than a unit on either side.

San Francisco 49ers 27 New York Giants 20

Pick against spread: San Francisco -6.5 (-110) 1 unit

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San Francisco 49ers: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 7 (+1)

Record: 4-1

The 49ers are by far the best team in the league in terms of yards per play, but they were just a good team by that metric 2 weeks ago so how you evaluate this team is dependent on how much stock you want to put into games against Buffalo and the New York Jets. They still have yet to beat a team with a winning record and those “huge” two games to open their season don’t look as impressive now. Likewise, their loss to Minnesota doesn’t look as bad either. We’ll learn a lot about this team as they face the Giants this week.

Studs

C Jonathan Goodwin: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 76 yards on 10 attempts

RG Alex Boone: Allowed 1 pressure on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

LT Joe Staley: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 17 yards on 2 attempts

QB Alex Smith: 18 of 24 for 303 yards and 3 touchdowns, 2 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown, 131.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured 6 times on 27 drop backs (1 scramble, 1 of 5, 2 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown)

WR Michael Crabtree: Caught 6 passes for 113 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts on 22 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

TE Vernon Davis: Caught 5 passes for 103 yards on 6 attempts on 27 pass snaps, 9.0 YAC per catch

MLB Patrick Willis: Allowed 4 catches for 21 yards on 5 attempts, 8 solo tackles, 6 stops

CB Chris Culliver: Allowed 1 catch for 8 yards on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

MLB NaVorro Bowman: Did not allow a catch on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Ahmad Brooks: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

None

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Buffalo Bills (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, 49ers, Bills

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-1)

How can the Bills possibly keep up with the 49ers this week? They’ll be completely flat off that divisional loss to the Patriots. That seems to the public opinion because the public is pounding San Francisco. The public is generally wrong, however. That’s why the odds makers are rich. This year has been no different as the public is getting killed, especially on big leans like this one, and sure enough, there are some things that the public seems to be overlooking.

The Bills loss to the Patriots last week does not put them in a bad situation to cover the spread. In fact, it’s the opposite. Teams that blow divisional halftime leads and lose by 14 or more are 20-11 ATS since 1989, including 5-1 ATS after losing by 21 or more. It seems that outplaying the team for a half is more important going forward than blowing the lead.

The Bills did look good in that game for at least 2 and ½ quarters and looked well on their way to victory against a tough very opponent before the Patriots went on a huge run that I’m not sure many defenses could have stopped. Remember, the Bills defense, which they put a lot of resources into this offseason, had allowed 31 points in their previous 2 games and it’s not like the 49ers have a good offense. Furthermore, teams are 23-11 ATS since 1989 as non-divisional dogs of 10+ off a divisional loss of 21 or more. The Bills are also 14-6 ATS in their last 20 instances off a loss to the Patriots.

That being said, I actually do think the public has the right side this week, if only by accident. Buffalo lost two starting offensive linemen last week, both of whom will be out this week. In spite of that and the Bills’ big loss and the 49ers’ big win last week, this line has only shifted 1 point. Those two offensive lineman alone are worth more than 2 points.

They rank 1st in the league in pass blocking efficiency, as they did last year before injury, and that’s so important because Ryan Fitzpatrick really struggles under pressure. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s under pressure accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) was just 53.3% last season, 29th out of 35 eligible quarterbacks. In 2010, his first season as a full-time starter, he ranked 33rd out of 34 players under pressure, by being accurate of 50.0% of his under pressure snaps. He also threw 8 picks to 2 touchdowns under pressure. It’s no coincidence that their once promising season was derailed once injuries hit on their offensive line last year.

Against a tough 49ers defense, missing two offensive linemen, I think we’re going to get bad Ryan Fitzpatrick this week. Besides, teams are 40-22 ATS after a road shutout win and the 49ers are in that situation this week, after shutting out the Jets in New York last week. It’s not a huge play at all because of some of the trends I mentioned working in Buffalo’s favor and because San Francisco doesn’t really have the offense to be comfortable laying 10 points with them, but I think San Francisco is the right side. San Francisco is also my survivor pick of the week for anyone still alive (like, you know, people who haven’t been listening to me).

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Sharps lean: SF 16 BUF 9

The sharps really like San Francisco. I’m going to add a unit. I hate picking big favorites, especially defensive minded ones, but Buffalo could be pretty awful offensively without Cordy Glenn and Kraig Urbik against this brutal San Francisco defense. I’m feeling a blowout.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Buffalo Bills 10 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL)

Pick against spread: San Francisco -9.5 (-110) 2 units

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San Francisco 49ers: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 8 (+1)

Record: 3-1

Through 4 games, the 49ers lead the league in yards per play differential. I still don’t trust Alex Smith to lead this team deep into the playoffs, but this was one of my preseason disappointing teams and I’ve definitely come around on them. They haven’t had to dominate the turnover battle like they did last year (only +4 through 4 games). The one issue is that this team has strangely had no injuries since the start of last year on either side of the ball. Can they still play at this level if they lose a couple starters to injury? I think the jury is still out on this team.

Studs

LG Mike Iupati: Did not allow a pressure on 27 pass block snaps, run blocked for 30 yards on 5 attempts

C Jonathan Goodwin: Did not allow a pressure on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 26 yards on 8 touchdowns

RG Alex Boone: Did not allow a pressure on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 1 attempt

MLB NaVorro Bowman: Allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

MLB Patrick Willis: Allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

FS Dashon Goldson: Allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 3 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

RE Justin Smith: 3 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

WR Michael Crabtree: Caught 2 passes for 15 yards on 6 attempts on 24 pass play, 0.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

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San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, 49ers, Jets

San Francisco 49ers (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)

Remember how the Jets’ chance to make the playoffs was on the conservative offense, good defense, don’t make mistakes, easy schedule model? Yeah, that doesn’t work if you can’t play good defense and without Darrelle Revis, they’re going to have a hard time doing so many of the things they normally do on defense. They also don’t run the ball particularly well with mediocre back Shonn Greene now ceding carries to an unproven Bilal Powell and Mark Sanchez is as he’s always been.

Revis’ injury is huge. It can’t be understated. Revis’ presence as someone who can shut down one side of the field is huge because it allows the Jets to use all sorts of exotic blitz packages. They already rank just 27th in the league in pass rush efficiency so I don’t expect them to get very much pressure at all on Alex Smith behind an improved San Francisco offensive line. Calvin Pace looks pretty done, Aaron Maybin is proving last year was a fluke, and rookie Quinton Coples hasn’t done anything yet.

Smith has proven that if you give him time, he can move the chains through the air and with Kyle Wilson and Ellis Lankster playing significant roles in the secondary, he should be able to do that with some ease this week. He’ll be helped by what should be a strong game from Frank Gore as the Jets, normally a good run defense, rank just 26th against the run in this early season.

So San Francisco’s offense vs. the Jets’ defense, advantage San Francisco, Jets’ offense versus 49ers’ defense, well let’s just say it won’t be pretty. The Vikings moved the ball well on the 49ers’ defense last week, but the Vikings are an underrated bunch and San Francisco was in an obvious let down situation so that doesn’t surprise me that much. This is still the same defense that shut down the Packers and Lions in their first 2 games and the same defense that ranked 2nd in opponent’s scoring last year. It’s arguable that their defense is even better this year because they’re not as reliant on forcing turnovers.

Well coached teams normally rebound off of upset losses. There isn’t much data with the 49ers in that situation because they’ve only had one upset loss (two if you count the NFC Championship game last year), but the 49ers have covered easily in both instances. They’re all 4-0 ATS off a loss in the Harbaugh era. Expect that to continue into the future and to play a factor this week. The Jets’ offense doesn’t have much of a chance against a pissed off 49ers defense and the Revis injury destroys so much of what they do defensively.

There aren’t any true trends in play here, other than the Harbaugh off a loss one, but the 49ers should win this one with ease. On paper, the Jets don’t even come close to matching up with the 49ers without Revis. Four things do worry me. One, this is a 1 PM ET time start for the 49ers on the East Coast, which is normally a disadvantage. However, the 49ers were a perfect 4-0 in this situation last year and since they had a road game last week, they haven’t returned to San Francisco. Harbaugh has them practicing in Youngstown, Ohio in the East Coast time zone so there’s not going to be much of an issue of jetlag for them.

The 2nd reason is that the Jets are a home dog and home dogs are 13-6 ATS and 12-7 SU this year, though I think that’s probably a fluke and probably had something to do with the replacement refs. The third reason is just that the public is betting the 49ers heavily and the public is just 4-12 on heavy leans this year. The fourth reason is that the media has written the Jets off this week, so that’s provided a 2-1 team with plenty of bulletin board material. Also the general media is normally wrong, with goes right along with the public normally being wrong. Still, I like the 49ers. It’s not a huge play or anything, but they should be the right side.

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if NY Jets covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): SF 11 NYJ 7

Update: Feeling a little bit more confident now that I know the sharps like San Francisco too. This one had me nervous because it felt like a trap line, but I’m sticking with the 2 units.

San Francisco 49ers 27 New York Jets 10

Pick against spread: San Francisco -4.5 (-110) 2 units

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San Francisco 49ers: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 9 (+1)

Record: 2-1

The loss in Minnesota was not unpredictable. Minnesota is an underrated team and it was to be expected that the 49ers would be flat against a “bad” opponent after being anointed after 2 weeks. The loss has allowed them to fall back to earth, which is what they needed, and they should be able to get a bounce back win in New York against the Jets this week. Well coached teams do. They still have the league’s best defense and should make the playoffs, though I still question Alex Smith and this offense’s ability to lead them to a Super Bowl victory, which is why I am ranking them this “low.” They’ll not well rounded enough.

Studs

C Jonathan Goodwin: Did not allow a pressure on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 18 yards on 5 attempts

LG Mike Iupati: Did not allow a pressure on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

MLB NaVorro Bowman: Allowed 3 catches for 28 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 14 tackles, 6 assists, 6 stops, 2 missed tackles

LOLB Ahmad Brooks: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 32 pass rush snaps, 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 7 stops

ROLB Aldon Smith: 1 quarterback hit and 6 quarterback hurries on 32 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

WR Kyle Williams: 2 catches for 16 yards on 3 targets on 23 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 2 punt returns for 24 yards, 2 kickoff returns for 144 yards

Duds

CB Carlos Rogers: Allowed 5 catches for 58 yards on 6 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 penalty

SS Donte Whitner: Allowed 1 catch and 2 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 missed tackles

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