Bears

Chicago Bears at New York Giants: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (2-7) at New York Giants (6-3)

This is one of the games I’m torn on this week. On one hand, the Giants are the significantly superior team and they have an easy upcoming game, a trip to Cleveland to take on the winless Browns, so they don’t have any upcoming distractions. The early line has them at least favorites of 6 or more next week and favorites of 6 or more are 89-50 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6 or more again. Meanwhile, in terms of first down rate differential, the Giants enter this game 5th, while the Bears enter in 23rd.

Things were looking up for the Bears before their bye, as they were getting guys back from injury and they pulled the home upset victory over the Vikings, but things fell apart again for the Bears last week in their first game back from the bye in a 36-10 loss in Tampa Bay. Not only did they get blown out, but they’ve since lost talented guard Kyle Long for the season with injury, wide receiver Alshon Jeffery for 4 games with suspension, and possibly nose tackle Eddie Goldman, who is questionable this week after tweaking his ankle injury in his return last week. The Bears are one of the worst teams in the league, while the Giants have actually been one of the best this season.

At the same time, this line is pretty big at 7.5, after a significant line movement in the past week (the early line was 5.5). As a result, we’re not really getting any line value with the Giants. Teams also tend to bounce back off of embarrassing losses like the Bears’ loss last week. The Bears lost by 26 last week as 2.5 point road favorites, an against the spread loss of 28.5. Teams are 92-54 ATS since 2002 off of an against the spread loss of 28 or more, as teams tend to be overlooked, underrated, and embarrassed in that situation.

It also helps the Bears that they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 136-103 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 108-71 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 229-245 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.86 points per game, as opposed to 329-459 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.00 points per game. I’m still taking the Giants, but this is a no confidence pick.

New York Giants 27 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -7.5

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)

The Bears are just 2-6, but things are not that bad for them right now. Despite a rash of injuries, the Bears were better than their record suggested in the first 8 games of the season and enter this game 20th in first down rate differential. They also enter this game as healthy as they’ve been all season coming off of their bye, with nose tackle Eddie Goldman, left guard Josh Sitton, and right guard Kyle Long, 3 key trench players, all returning this week. Prior to the bye, the Bears got back players like middle linebacker Danny Trevathan, outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, and quarterback Jay Cutler back from injury. With the players they currently have healthy, the Bears are not a bad team.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are not as good. They enter this game just 27th in first down rate differential, despite not having as many injuries as the Bears. They’ve also lacked any sort of homefield advantage in recent years, going just 18-39 ATS at home since 2009. The problem is this line is at 2.5 in favor of the visiting Bears, so we’re not really getting any line value with them. They’re still the right side here in pick ‘em pools as long as the line is under 3, but this is a no confidence pick.

Chicago Bears 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago -2.5

Confidence: None

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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (5-1) at Chicago Bears (1-6)

The Vikings started 5-0, but they were never as good as their record. Their defense has played incredible thus far this season, but their offense has been horrendous. For the first 5 games of the season, their offense’s inability to move the ball was masked by a +11 turnover margin and a +4 return touchdown margin. Both turnover margin and return touchdown margin tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so this team couldn’t depend on those to mask their offensive flaws forever. Last week, they had a +0 turnover margin and a +1 return touchdown margin and subsequently suffered their first loss of the season, 21-10 to the Eagles in Philadelphia.

On the season, they rank just 18th in first down differential. Their defense has allowed the 5th lowest first down percentage in the season, but their offense ranks just 30th in first down percentage, largely as a result of their inability to run the ball. With starting running back Jerick McKinnon out this week with injury, that figures to continue this week. The Bears are not a great team, ranking 25th in first down percentage, but this line is too high at 5 in favor of the visiting Vikings, especially with the Bears getting healthier. Kyle Long will miss his first game of the season and starters like Eddie Goldman, Kyle Fuller, and Kevin White remain out, but starters like Jay Cutler, Pernell McPhee, Danny Trevathan, and Josh Sitton all have missed time this season and now are healthy and back in the lineup. With about 3 in 10 games decided by 4 or fewer points, I’m pretty confident in the Bears at 5.

Minnesota Vikings 17 Chicago Bears 16

Pick against the spread: Chicago +5

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (1-5) at Green Bay Packers (4-2)

This is a tough one to start the week. On one hand, the line shifted from 10.5 to 8 over the past week, as a result of Green Bay’s home loss to a good Dallas team, so we’re getting the Packers in a buy low opportunity. The Bears, meanwhile, have another tough game on deck against the Vikings and tough home games like that often are distraction for teams, as teams are 48-94 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs since 2012. The Bears are expected to be at least home underdogs of that many points.

However, the Packers have a tough game on deck as well, as they head to Atlanta to face a good Falcons team next week. More important, even at 8, this line might be too high the way the Packers are playing right now. They enter this game just 13th in first down percentage differential, thanks to an offense that shockingly ranks just 14th in first down percentage. The Bears are not too much farther down at 19. Of course, if Aaron Rodgers can play like himself again, this line might be a good value in the other direction.

That’s far from a given though, as Rodgers has looked average at best since the start of last season. Last year, it was understandable because the Packers were missing top receiver Jordy Nelson and had other banged up players on offense, but Nelson is back and the Packers have been relatively healthy around him this season. Now in his age 33 season, it’s fair to question if he’s losing it a little bit, even in an era where top quarterbacks are staying top quarterbacks into their mid-to-late 30s.

Making matters worse, the Packers are missing a lot of key players on a short week, most notably running back Eddie Lacy. With backup running back James Starks also out, the Packers are very thin at the position and may have to start Knile Davis, acquired just this week from the Chiefs in a trade. They’re also very thin at cornerback, missing their top 3 cornerbacks with injury, Sam Shields, Quinten Rollins, and Damarious Randall. However, on paper, they still have enough of a talent advantage to cover this spread if everyone plays like they should. On top of that, Rodgers is 26-13 ATS off a loss in his career and him having a huge game that shuts up all of his critics (for now) is certainly not out of the question, especially against a mediocre Bears pass defense. Especially with another tough game on deck, I couldn’t bet anything on the Bears this week, but they’re the pick here.

Green Bay Packers 27 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +8

Confidence: None

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at Chicago Bears (1-4)

This one is tough. Despite similar records and arguably similar levels of talent, the Bears have significantly outplayed the Jaguars through the first 5 weeks of the season. Despite a ton of injuries (Pernell McPhee, Eddie Goldman, Kevin White, LaMarr Houston, Kyle Fuller, Jay Cutler), the Bears rank 8th in the first down percentage differential. They’re arguably healthy now than they were a few weeks ago, with the return of middle linebacker Danny Trevathan from injury. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are healthier than they’ve been all season. Jared Odrick, Prince Amukamara, Brandon Linder, and Kelvin Beachum all missed time earlier in the year, but, coming out of their bye, they are only missing mediocre guard Luke Joeckel. However, through 4 games, they are 27th in first down percentage differential.

Despite that, the Bears are only favored by 1.5 points here at home, suggesting the oddsmakers see the Jaguars as the superior team. That hasn’t been true thus far, as they’ve had much different numbers against fairly comparable schedules. The Jaguars have played the Packers, Chargers, Ravens, and Colts, while the Bears have faced the Texans, Chargers, Cowboys, Lions, and Colts. All of that being said, the reason I can’t be confident in Chicago is because they have easily their biggest game of the season on deck next week, which could cause them to overlook an unfamiliar, underwhelming opponent.

The Bears travel to Green Bay, where they are expected to be 10.5 point underdogs against the Packers, according to the early line. Teams are 39-61 ATS since 2012 before being 10+ point underdogs and 19-33 ATS as favorites before being 10+ point underdogs since 2008. On top of that, favorites are 50-75 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday night game. The Bears are the pick and could be worth putting money on (I may decide to later), but I’m worried about the possibility of the Bears showing up flat with a huge game on deck and the Jaguars showing up and playing their best football of the season, healthy coming out of the bye.

Update: I’ve decided to bump this up to a medium confidence play. As long as the line is under a field goal, the Bears have a good chance to cover.

Chicago Bears 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 16

Pick against the spread: Chicago -1.5

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (1-3) at Indianapolis Colts (1-3)

The Colts played in London last week, losing 30-27 to the previously winless Jaguars. The Jaguars have a bye this week, but the Colts are the first team in NFL history to play a game the week after playing an overseas game. I don’t know if this was their decision or the league’s decision, but they don’t go on bye until week 10. That’s gotta hurt them this week. That’s just a ton of traveling, going from Indianapolis to London and back. There’s a reason teams normally go on bye week after going overseas.

Making matters worse, the Colts have to turn around and go to Houston next week for a huge divisional rivalry with a team currently in first place, next week on Sunday Night Football. The Bears, meanwhile, host the Jaguars next week, which is not nearly the same distraction. With an easy game on deck, they should be completely focused for an opponent who might not be. That’s historically been the case, as underdogs are 82-57 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs.

That being said, this isn’t a big play for a couple reasons. The first is how many players the Bears are still missing with injury. Middle linebacker Danny Trevathan is expected to return after missing the last few games with a thumb injury, which is a big re-addition, but the Bears are still missing outside linebackers Pernell McPhee and LaMarr Houston, top cornerback Kyle Fuller, and top defensive lineman Eddie Goldman for an extended period of time. Joining them on the sidelines this week are this year’s first round pick Leonard Floyd, which leaves them very thin at outside linebacker, and last year’s first round pick Kevin White, their #2 wide receiver. Quarterback Jay Cutler also remains out, but experienced backup Brian Hoyer has played pretty well in 2 spot starts, to the point where there are rumors he might keep the job from Cutler permanently.

The Colts, meanwhile, are much healthier than they were earlier this season, with defensive Henry Anderson and cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Patrick Robinson back from injury. Those are three of their best defensive players. The Colts still don’t have a ton of talent around the quarterback position on either side of the ball, but we’re not really getting much line value with the Bears at +4.5, even though 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. The second reason I’m not confident in the Bears is because they could be a little overconfident and overvalued off of last week’s home upset victory over divisional rival Detroit, as teams are 52-75 ATS since 2012 off of a home upset win. I can’t saw for sure they’ll be overconfident, but we did lose a lot of value with the Bears in the past week, as this line was at 6.5 on the early line last week. The Bears are the play, but it’s a low confidence pick unless the line happens to creep back up to 6.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Chicago Bears 24

Pick against the spread: Chicago +4.5

Confidence: Low

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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (1-2) at Chicago Bears (0-3)

Both of these teams enter this one incredibly banged up. While the Lions are missing two of their top three defensive players, linebacker DeAndre Levy and defensive end Ezekiel Ansah, the Bears’ injuries are more numerous. Not only are they missing quarterback Jay Cutler, but they’re also missing top cornerback Kyle Fuller, top pass rusher Pernell McPhee, talented middle linebacker Danny Trevathan, talented nose tackle Eddie Goldman, and valuable reserve LaMarr Houston. Talent wise, they’re one of the few worst teams in the entire league without those guys.

That being said, the Lions might not be justified as 3.5 point road favorites in Chicago without Levy and Ansah. The Lions’ defense is built around those two and top cornerback Darius Slay and looked predictably overmatched without them last week against Green Bay. Chicago obviously doesn’t have the same kind of offensive firepower, but about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less so I like the Bears’ chances of at least getting a backdoor cover late, especially since the public is all over Detroit. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run. This is a no confidence pick though and I might switch sides at 3.

Detroit Lions 27 Chicago Bears 24

Pick against the spread: Chicago +3.5

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (0-2) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

The Bears have been hit hard by the injury bug early in the season. Not only is quarterback Jay Cutler out for this game with a thumb injury, they’re also without starting linebackers Pernell McPhee and Danny Trevathan, reserve linebacker Lamarr Houston, and top defensive lineman Eddie Goldman, while top cornerback Kyle Fuller is questionable after missing the first two games of the season with an ankle injury. That’s a lot to be missing from a defense that wasn’t great to begin with.

However, the Cowboys are missing a lot of guys as well. Top cornerback Orlando Scandrick will be out for this one, while starting defensive ends Randy Gregory and DeMarcus Lawrence and starting middle linebacker Rolando McClain are all suspended and of course quarterback Tony Romo remains on the sidelines with a back injury. They won in Washington last week, but only by 4 and against a Redskins team that isn’t playing well right now. Cowboys Backup quarterback Dak Prescott understandably hasn’t quite lived up to his big pre-season and has a patchwork defense supporting him, so the Cowboys shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown against anyone, except for maybe the Browns.

The Bears aren’t that bad. They’re actually in pretty capable hands with backup quarterback Brian Hoyer, who has made 22 starts over the past 2 seasons and has shown himself to at least be a low end starting quarterback. He had success throwing to DeAndre Hopkins and will likely have similar success with Bears #1 receiver Alshon Jeffery, a similar player. Even with Goldman, Houston, and Trevathan going down too, this line shouldn’t have moved from 3.5 on the early line to 7 this week as a result of Cutler’s injury, especially if Fuller can play.

The Cowboys also haven’t had much homefield advantage in recent years, as they are 15-34 ATS at home since 2010, including 8-26 ATS as home favorites, as opposed to 28-21 ATS on the road. That makes sense, as the Cowboys have fans scattered around the country and normally have many of their own fans in attendance at road games, while their home stadium is a bit of a tourist attraction and often has many visiting fans as a result. There aren’t a lot of good sides this week, but I like the Bears a good amount.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7

Confidence: High

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Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Chicago Bears (0-1)

Coming into the season, I thought the Eagles were one of the most underrated teams in the league. Even after trading Sam Bradford to the Vikings, their 3.5 point week 1 line at home against the Browns didn’t make any sense and neither did their 6.5 win over/under for the season. They’re starting a rookie quarterback and don’t have a ton of offensive skill position talent around him, but they have a strong offensive line, especially while Lane Johnson remains unsuspended, and a defense that should take a big step forward under new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, who is one of the best in the game. They have a talented defense, especially in the front 7, but always perennially underachieved under Chip Kelly hire Billy Davis.

The Eagles looked good in a week 1 29-10 victory over the Browns, but they remain underrated as the public is unimpressed by a team beating the Browns. The Browns are a very weak opponent, but a 19-point win is nothing to scoff at and I think we’re getting great value with them this week as 3.5 point underdogs in Chicago. One in 4 games are decided by 3 or fewer points and the Eagles have a good chance to win straight up, even without talented tight end Zach Ertz, against a Chicago team that isn’t that good, especially without top pass rusher Pernell McPhee. It’s a big play on the Eagles if you can get -3.5. If you can’t, I’d suggest paying to get it if you can get it at -125 or better. The money line at +150 is a nice value too. This game is at best a toss up.

Chicago Bears 24 Philadelphia Eagles 23

Pick against the Spread: Philadelphia +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Houston Texans: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)

There are a few games this week where I think the line is too high and the underdog has a good chance to win. I think this line is too high at 6 in favor of Houston, but I still expect the Texans to win. They’re the slightly better team and they’re at home. I just think 6 points is too many to pass on. People like Houston because they added at the skill positions this off-season, adding quarterback Brock Osweiler, running back Lamar Miller, wide receiver Will Fuller, but Osweiler is overrated and unproven, while Fuller is still a rookie.

People also seem to be overlooking their issues on the offensive line. With talented left tackle Duane Brown out with injury to start the season, the Texans are missing 3 starters on the offensive line last year, including free agent departures Ben Jones and Brandon Brooks, neither of whom was adequately replaced. On defense, they need JJ Watt to be 100%, which is somewhat in question after off-season back surgery. On the other side, the Bears aren’t a great team either, but they’re comparable to Houston in terms of talent. This line should be closer to 3 than 6. It’s not tough for me to put money on it, but Chicago should be the right side.

Houston Texans 17 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: Chicago +6

Confidence: Low

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