Bears

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bears, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (4-5) at Chicago Bears (3-6)

The Bears have been blown out in back-to-back games, losing 51-23 in New England and 55-14 in Green Bay in their past 2 weeks. However, I like their chances of bouncing back here. For one thing, teams usually do well off of back-to-back blowout losses, as teams are 40-23 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more since 2002, including 6-3 ATS since 2002 as favorites. That makes sense as teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and I think the Bears have a good chance to be all three this week, even as favorites. There’s a small sample size with favorites in this situation, but I think favorites’ record in this situation since 2002 suggests two things. One, that teams are not favored off of back-to-back blowout losses very often. Two, that teams still cover and that aforementioned logic stills holds despite being favorited. Teams aren’t usually favored in this situation, but when they are, it’s for good reason.

Despite the fact that they are favored by 3 here and that they got blown out in their last 2 games, we’re actually getting some line value with the Bears, which goes back to the whole they are undervalued thing. They are 18th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at 76.03% rate, as opposed to 76.79% for their opponents, a differential of -0.76%. Meanwhile, the Vikings rank 23rd, moving the chains at a 68.63% rate, as opposed to 71.59% for their opponents, a differential of -2.95%. The Bears should be favored by more than a field goal here despite what has happened in the last 2 weeks. At the same time, the Vikings are in a bad spot with a game in Green Bay up next. Teams are 56-85 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more, 28-60 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 8-22 ATS before being road favorites of 7 or more (the early line is Green Bay -7.5). The Bears are the right side here.

Chicago Bears 23 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against the spread: Chicago -3

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)

On the season, the Bears have actually played a little bit better, as they rank 13th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.22% rate, as opposed to 76.11% for their opponents, a differential of 1.11%. The Packers, meanwhile, move the chains at a 78.69% rate, as opposed to 77.99% for their opponents, a differential of 0.70% that ranks 15th in the NFL. They’ve been overly reliant on a 2-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a +8 turnover margin. However, the Packers have been significantly better at home, moving the chains at a 78.13% rate, as opposed to 69.39% for their opponents in 3 home games this season, a differential of 8.74%.

This home dominance is nothing new. Aaron Rodgers is 23-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 29-4 straight up, with an absurd +469 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.21 points per game. On top of that, Aaron Rodgers is 19-10 ATS off of a loss in his career and 11-2 ATS in his career against the Bears, while Mike McCarthy is 8-0 ATS off of a regular season bye in his career. The Bears have an easy game against the Vikings up next and divisional road underdogs are 59-41 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home favorites. I also wish this line was smaller. It’s currently at 7.5 and it would have to be below a touchdown for me to make this a higher confidence pick, but the Packers should be the right side.

Green Bay Packers 35 Chicago Bears 24

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7.5

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bears, Patriots, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (3-4) at New England Patriots (5-2)

The Bears were embarrassed last week at home by the Dolphins, but that’s because the Dolphins were in a fantastic spot, with an incredibly easy game against the Jaguars up next, while the Bears were caught looking forward to this one. I like the Bears’ chances of bouncing back this week as they’ll be completely focused against a big opponent with a bye up next, while the Patriots are the ones in the bad spot this week. The Patriots have the Broncos up next and could easily be caught looking forward to that one, their biggest regular season game.

The Patriots are currently projected to be 3 point underdogs at home for Denver next week. Teams are 51-81 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012 and teams are 54-81 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more before being home underdogs of 3 or more since 1989. While they got blown out by a team in a good spot last week, I think they can easily keep it close against a team in a bad spot this week. The public doesn’t think so, as they’re all over the Patriots, but that’s because they’re too focused on what happened last week. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as the public always loses money in the long run and it makes sense here.

We’re also getting line value with the Bears, as the Patriots are an overrated team that has been too reliant on winning the turnover battle, going +9 in turnovers and recovering 66.67% of fumbles. In terms of pure rate of moving the chains, the Patriots rank 18th in differential, moving the chains at a 71.76% rate, as opposed to 72.20% for their opponents, a differential of -0.44. Sure, their offense has been a lot better recently as Rob Gronkowski has returned to form, but their defense has simultaneously taken huge hits losing Jerod Mayo and Chandler Jones to return. Meanwhile, the Bears move the chains at a 76.92% rate, as opposed to 73.30% for their opponents, a differential of 3.62% that ranks 8th in the NFL, despite what happened last week in a tough situation. They’ll give the Patriots a game.

New England Patriots 24 Chicago Bears 23

Pick against spread: Chicago +6

Confidence: Medium

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Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bears, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (2-3) at Chicago Bears (3-3)

All the trends say the Dolphins are the right side here. While the Bears have to go to New England next week, one of the toughest places in the NFL to win, the Dolphins go to Jacksonville, arguably the easiest place in the NFL to win. Teams usually cover before being significant road favorites, as there are no distractions on the horizon. Non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road favorites are 38-26 ATS since 1989. On top of that, teams are 75-50 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more and 47-29 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more (the Dolphins are currently projected to be 4 point favorites in Jacksonville). If you combine the two, teams are 34-22 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being road favorites of 4 or more.

On the opposite end of the coin, the Bears are going to be significant road underdogs in New England next week. Teams are 70-102 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, including 21-47 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more. Going off of that, teams are 94-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 35-12 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs before being road favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs. Everything about this situation screams that the Dolphins are the right side.

I just wish we were getting more line value with the Dolphins. This line is only 3.5. While it’s on the right side of the field goal, I wish this line was more likely 4.5 or 5, though I do like to see that the public is on Chicago and the line isn’t climbing. In fact, it’s dropped down to 3 at some places, suggesting the sharps are on the Dolphins. Siding with the sharp bettors and fading the public bettors is usually a recipe for success.

However, on paper these teams don’t really seem even, which is what this line suggests. The Bears are an average team, ranking 17th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.02% rate, as opposed to 71.52% for their opponents, a differential of 0.50%. The Bears, meanwhile, move the chains at a 77.78% rate, as opposed to 71.68% for their opponents, a differential of 6.10% that ranks 5th in the NFL. Their offensive success doesn’t really surprise me, though they’ve done a very good job of preserving through injuries offensively that they didn’t have last season.

However, their defense has been a big surprise as I saw this as one of the least talented defensive units in the league coming into the season. Despite losing Henry Melton this off-season and once again being without Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman thanks to injuries, they’ve played well on that side of the ball, fixing a lot of their issues from a season ago. They could still struggle the rest of the way because I think their play is exceeding their talent level right now, which gives me more confidence in the Dolphins, who seem like the right side as long as the line exceeds a field goal.

Miami Dolphins 27 Chicago Bears 24 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Miami +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bears, Falcons, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (2-3) at Atlanta Falcons (2-3)

Two spots the Falcons have always done well in since 2008, the first year of Mike Smith and Matt Ryan, have been off of a loss and at home. Matt Ryan is 30-19 ATS at home in his career and 23-11 ATS off of a loss. The Falcons didn’t show well off of a loss last week in New York against the Giants, but they were on the road. The Falcons haven’t won outside since 2012. Now at home in their dome, they could have an easier time. They are 15-7 ATS at home off a loss since 2008 as long as Matt Ryan is under center.

Despite all that, I’m taking the Bears here because they have even more powerful situational trends on their side. The Bears are road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 105-69 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 89-47 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 174-180 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.12 points per game, as opposed to 244-355 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.36 points per game.

The Bears are also in a much better spot with a much easier game on deck. While the Bears host the Dolphins next, the Falcons have to go to Baltimore. Teams are 70-100 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, while teams are 106-72 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 93-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 93-57 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. The Falcons’ defense and offensive line are a mess so as good as their passing game is and as good as they are at home and off a loss, I like the Bears to come in and potentially pull the upset. I’m taking them and the field goal.

Chicago Bears 24 Atlanta Falcons 23 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: Chicago +3

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bears, Panthers, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (2-2)

The Panthers have lost their last two games by scores of 37-19 and 38-10, a combined margin of 46 points. As a result, the public seems very turned off of them, as they are heavily backing the underdog. However, I like the Panthers for three reasons. One, I like to fade publicly backed underdogs on principle. If the Bears are really better than the Panthers like the public thinks, why do the odds makers (who always come out on top) have them as 2.5 point underdogs? Whenever the public thinks an upset will be pulled, it usually doesn’t happen.

Two, the Panthers are actually in a good spot after back-to-back blowouts. Teams are 48-27 ATS off of two losses by a combined 45 or more points since 2008.  It may seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and the Panthers should be all three this week. Three, these two teams are at the very least even, so, as long as I’m laying less than a field goal with the Panthers at home, they’re the side I’m going with here. I’m not that confident though.

Carolina Panthers 24 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against spread: Carolina -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (1-2) at Chicago Bears (2-1)

The Packers fell flat in Detroit last week in a 19-7 loss, but things should be different this week in Chicago for a number of reasons. One, Detroit is a significantly better team than Chicago, an opinion I’ve held since the pre-season. The Bears have exceeded my expectations a little (their win in San Francisco was the most impressive), but there’s no reason for me to change my opinion on Chicago and Detroit. This will be an easier game for the Packers, who are undervalued because people haven’t really caught on to how good the Lions are. There’s no reason the Packers should be underdogs here, even if it’s only as underdogs of one point.

Speaking of the Packers being underdogs, that fact leads into the 2nd reason that this week should go differently for the Packers. They’re in a much better spot this week as they are divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites (against Minnesota next week), while the Bears are going to Carolina next week. Teams are 58-41 ATS as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites since 2002. On top of that, teams are 93-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs since 2010, including 93-55 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs since 2008.

The Packers are also road underdogs after a road loss. Teams are 103-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 88-45 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 172-178 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 239-344 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.20 points per game.

Even if this line switches to Green Bay favored by a point or two before game time, nullifying all of those trends, I still like the Packers. They’re still in their 2nd straight road game either way and they’re still undervalued and should be able to win by a field goal or more. Other trends help them out, as Rodgers is 18-10 ATS off of a loss in his career. Rodgers is also 10-2 ATS and straight up against the Bears in his career since 2008. This is my Pick of the Week.

Green Bay Packers 27 Chicago Bears 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Green Bay +1

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Chicago Bears at New York Jets: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bears, Jets, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (1-1) at New York Jets (1-1)

The Jets are 2.5 point favorites here, but the public is still all over the Bears, suggesting that most people think the Bears are going to pull the upset. Usually when the majority of people think there will be an upset, it doesn’t happen. There’s a reason why the Jets are favorites here. I don’t think they’re a very good team, but the Bears aren’t much better. The Jets went 8-8 last season, but that was not indicative of how bad of a team they were. They went 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had a points differential of -97 (7th worst in the NFL) and 5.4 Pythagorean wins. They finished the season 25th in rate of moving the chains differential and 24th in DVOA. They were essentially a 5-11 team that managed to win 8 games.

The Bears also won 8 games last season and were also one of my picks to regress.  The Bears had a great offense last season, but they also had a defense that was worse than their offense was good. This season, I expected their offense to be worse without their defense being much better. The Bears moved the chains at a 75.68% rate last season, 4th in the NFL, but they were only in the mid 73s in games that Jay Cutler started as a lot of their offensive dominance game in games started by Josh McCown. I still think they’ll be a good offense, but they’ll finish somewhere in the 8-12 range rather than 4th.

I don’t expect this team to move the chains at a 75.68% rate again or even close within 2% points of that, even if Jay Cutler plays all 16 games. And if he doesn’t, they’re going to be in a lot of trouble because McCown is gone, now starting in Tampa Bay. On top of that, they should have more injuries on offense than last season as the games Cutler missed, which actually made them better, were their only real games lost to injuries offensively. They have minimal depth and now starting offensive linemen Roberto Garza and Matt Slauson are going to miss time with injury. Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, meanwhile, are significantly less than 100%. I think this line should be at 3, suggesting these two teams are even, so we’re getting a small amount of line value by fading the public. I’m not confident though.

New York Jets 19 Chicago Bears 16

Pick against spread: NY Jets -2.5

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, 49ers, Bears, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (0-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0)

The Bears were one of my overrated teams going into the season. The Bears had a great offense last season, but they also had a defense that was worse than their offense was good. This season, I expected their offense to be worse without their defense being much better. The Bears moved the chains at a 75.68% rate last season, 4th in the NFL, but they were only in the mid 73s in games that Jay Cutler started as a lot of their offensive dominance game in games started by Josh McCown. They’ll still be a good offense, but they’ll finish somewhere in the 8-12 range rather than 4th.

I don’t expect this team to move the chains at a 75.68% rate again or even close within 2% points of that, even if Jay Cutler plays all 16 games. And if he doesn’t, they’re going to be in a lot of trouble because McCown is gone, now starting in Tampa Bay. On top of that, they should have more injuries on offense than last season as the games Cutler missed, which actually made them better, were their only real games lost to injuries offensively. They have minimal depth and now starting offensive linemen Roberto Garza and Matt Slauson are going to miss time with injury. Their loss to the Bills last week only solidifies my opinion that they’re going to struggle this year.

Meanwhile, the 49ers have always been able to beat up on bad teams in the Jim Harbaugh era. They are 24-12 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since 2011. Last season, against teams that finished .500 or worse, Colin Kaepernick completed 110 of 177 (62.2%) for 1553 yards (8.69 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 281 yards and 4 touchdowns on 45 carries in 8 games. They won all 8 of those games by an average of 20.13 points per game and covered 7 times. Last week, they beat up on a terrible Dallas team, winning 28-13. They’re also in a good situation here as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites (in Arizona next week). Teams are 52-24 ATS in that situation since 2008. They should blow out the Bears here in the Levi Stadium opener on Sunday Night Football.

San Francisco 49ers 34 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against spread: San Francisco -7

Confidence: High

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Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bears, Bills, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)

The Bears had a great offense last season, but they also had a defense that was worse than their offense was good. This season, I expect their offense to be worse without their defense being much better. The Bears moved the chains at a 75.68% rate last season, 4th in the NFL, but they were only in the mid 73s in games that Jay Cutler started as a lot of their offensive dominance game in games started by Josh McCown. They’ll still be a good offense, but they’ll finish somewhere in the 8-12 range rather than 4th.

I don’t expect this team to move the chains at a 75.68% rate again or even close within 2% points of that, even if Jay Cutler plays all 16 games. And if he doesn’t, they’re going to be in a lot of trouble because McCown is gone, now starting in Tampa Bay. On top of that, they should have more injuries on offense than last season as the games Cutler missed, which actually made them better, were their only real games lost to injuries offensively. The Bears have already lost 3rd wide receiver Marquess Wilson to a significant injury.

Defensively, they had injuries last season, losing Lance Briggs, Charles Tillman, and Henry Melton for significant periods of time, but Melton is gone and Briggs and Tillman are going into their age 34 and 33 seasons respectively and see could never be the same. I like what they did at defensive end bringing in LaMarr Houston, Jared Allen, and Willie Young to replace Julius Peppers, Corey Wootton, and Shea McClellin, but Allen isn’t what he used to be and he gives them 4 players who are over 40 (Allen, Briggs, Tillman, and Tim Jennings). It’s not going to be a significantly improved unit and it’ll need to be with the offense likely “only” being an above average offense.

I’m not thrilled about the Bills either, but, as long as we’re getting a touchdown with them, they’re the right side. These two teams are essentially equal (the Bills’ offense is equally bad as the Bears’ defense and the Bears’ offense is equally good as the Bills’ defense) so this line should be around 3. I’m certainly not laying a touchdown with a mediocre Bears team. Teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover about a quarter of the time as 6+ point favorites. The Bills are the right side here.

Chicago Bears 20 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo +7

Confidence: Medium

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