Bears

Chicago Bears sign DE LaMarr Houston

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Bears, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

The Bears had a desperate need for defensive line help after they cut Julius Peppers. With Corey Wootton and Henry Melton set to hit free agency, the Bears needed new starters at 3 of 4 defensive line positions, in addition to fixing the complete lack of depth that showed last season. LaMarr Houston was one of the best defensive linemen available this off-season. A 2010 2nd round pick, Houston has been a well above average 4-3 defensive end in each of the last 3 seasons, grading out 19th, 9th, and 11th on Pro Football Focus among 4-3 defensive ends in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively.

Considering Michael Johnson got 43.75 million over 5 years with 24 million guaranteed, the 35 million over 5 years with 17 million guaranteed that Houston got is very reasonable. This is certainly better than the 42.5 million over 5 years with 20 million guaranteed that the Vikings gave to the unproven Everson Griffin. Houston will line up at Julius Peppers’ old spot and move inside to defensive tackles on passing downs, presumably with Shea McClellin moving down from linebacker to be a nickel rusher. This was a good get at a reasonable price.

Grade: A-

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Chicago Bears 2014 Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Bears, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

Die hard Bears fans probably didn’t recognize the team at all last season. Their offense was as good as it’s been in years, a big change for a franchise that is not usually good offensively. However, their defense was as bad as it’s been in years and potentially one of the worst defenses in franchise history, considering how good their defense has almost always been. They moved the chains at a 75.68% rate, 4th best in the NFL, but they allowed opponents to move the chains at a 76.92% rate, 2nd worst in the NFL. As a result, they missed the playoffs once again.

What happened to their defense? Well, it was a combination of age, injuries, and departed coaches. The Bears came into 2013 with 4 defensive starters over 30 and all 4 had down seasons. Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman both missed significant time with injury and were shells of their former selves when on the field. Julius Peppers also struggled by his standards and even Tim Jennings, the youngest of the bunch, wasn’t as good as he’s been in the past. Also, in addition to the injuries suffered by Briggs and Tillman, they were dealt a significant blow when Henry Melton, their best young player, tore his ACL early in the season. Their run defense never recovered.

They also really missed Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli, their long-time head coach and his trusted defensive coordinator. Their absences were probably just as much why some of their players declined as age. Even under 30 players like Chris Conte and Major Wright struggled by their standards this season, while James Anderson struggled mightily as a free agent addition and youngsters Jon Bostic and Shea McClellin did not develop. The downgrade from Marinelli to Mel Tucker was significant.

Firing Lovie Smith wasn’t all bad though. Lovie Smith’s biggest issue was that he continually hired incompetent coordinators to run his offense, guys like Ron Turner, Mike Martz, and Mike Tice. New head coach Marc Trestman and offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer are both great offensive minds that were able to turn this into one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Alshon Jeffery broke out as a legitimate outside receiving threat opposite Brandon Marshall and the addition of Martellus Bennett in free agency gave them a significant upgrade at tight end over the overmatched Kellen Davis. They stopped messing around with the offensive line and brought in 4 new starters, two in free agency, Jermon Bushrod and Matt Slauson, and two in the draft, Kyle Long and Jordan Mills. Those 4 and center Roberto Garza each made all 16 starts this season on a much improved offensive line. It didn’t even matter if Jay Cutler was out there or not because they were able to coach journeyman backup Josh McCown into strong play for a short period of time, completing 66.5% of his passes for an average of 8.17 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 1 interception.

All that being said, I don’t really believe the Bears are in a better position now than where they were a year ago. They fired Lovie Smith despite an 81-63 record in 9 seasons and a Super Bowl appearance in 2005 because he had made the playoffs just once in the past 6 seasons. He and Rod Marinelli were strong defensive minds, but they never had a strong offensive mind. Now, Trestman and Kromer are strong offensive minds, but they don’t have a strong defensive mind. Trestman’s willingness to stick with Mel Tucker at defensive coordinator despite such an awful defensive season last year is very much Lovie Smith-like. The Bears are no less stuck in the mud than they were a year ago.

Positional Needs

Defensive End

Corey Wootton is a free agent this off-season, while Julius Peppers is as close to being a sure thing cap casualty as you can be. The Bears drafted Shea McClellin in the first round in 2012, but he’s been a bust thus far. He played just 368 snaps as a rookie and then struggled mightily in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst 4-3 defensive end. He’s being moved to outside linebacker for 2014 so the Bears really have nothing at the defensive end position right now. They’ll need at least one, if not two new starters at the defensive end position this off-season.

Defensive Tackle

The Bears run defense was terrible this season as they couldn’t handle the loss of Henry Melton, who tore his ACL early in the season. They couldn’t really replace him. Stephen Paea was alright, but Landon Cohen struggled mightily went counted upon. Things were so bad that they signed Jay Ratliff off the streets. He’s not a long-term option, going into his age 33 season after struggling through injuries over the past couple of seasons.

Safety

Major Wright and Chris Conte both struggled mightily this season at safety, grading out as Pro Football Focus worst ranked and 4th worst ranked safeties respectively this season. They’ve both been better in the past, but Wright is a free agent this off-season and unlikely to be retained, while Conte will be a free agent next off-season. It’s a position they’ll need to address this off-season.

Cornerback

The Bears re-signed Tim Jennings to a 4-year deal this off-season, but they still have 4 free agents at the cornerback position this off-season, including Charles Tillman, a long-time starter who is unlikely to be retained, coming off of a rough season in which he missed significant time with injury and going into his age 33 season. They’ll need a new starter opposite Jennings this off-season. Jennings is also going into his age 31 season and probably won’t make it through all 4 seasons of his contract.

Outside Linebacker

James Anderson was awful this season at outside linebacker, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked 4-3 outside linebacker this past season. Lance Briggs was better opposite him, but he wasn’t his best and missed 7 games with injury. That’s to be expected as he’s going into his age 34 season and he won’t be able to be counted on for much longer. Shea McClellin will be converting to outside linebacker and they have 2013 4th round pick Khaseem Greene in the mix as well, but they can’t count on either of them as long-term starters at the position either. They should try to add someone else to the mix this off-season.

Middle Linebacker

Jon Bostic took over as a starter as a 2nd round rookie, but finished as Pro Football Focus’ 5th worst ranked middle linebacker. There shouldn’t be a ton of concern right now as he was only a rookie, but there’s already been some talk of moving him to outside linebacker, where he would be a better fit and potentially help solve another problem. They could add a cheap veteran or a late round pick to the mix at this position this off-season.

Wide Receiver

Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are among the top wide receiver duos in the NFL, but the Bears’ depth behind them is pretty limited, especially if they cut marginal slot receiver Earl Bennett. They could add a mid-round or late-round pick on a depth receiver.

Offensive Tackle

Every single one of the Bears’ starting offensive linemen played at least 1022 snaps and no one missed more than 48 snaps. There’s something to be said for continuity, but right tackle Jordan Mills actually really struggled, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked offensive tackle last season, allowing a league worst 62 quarterback hurries. He could be better in his 2nd season in the league in 2014, but he was just a 5th round pick. They should consider some competition at the position.

Center

The Bears might not be able to keep all 5 starters on their offensive line because center Roberto Garza is a free agent. He’s going into his age 35 season in 2014 and has been very inconsistent in the past. If they don’t bring him back, they’ll have to replace him because they don’t have an internal replacement.

Punter

Adam Podlesh struggled as the Bears’ punter this season. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst punter as the Bears ranked dead last in the NFL in punting average and 4th worst in net punting average. They can easily cut him this off-season and replace him with at least a league average punter.

Key Free Agents

DT Henry Melton

Henry Melton emerged as one of the better defensive tackles in the NFL in 2011 and 2012, grading out 16th among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 2011 and 7th in 2012, earning himself the franchise tag for the 2013 season. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL early in the 2013 season so now his future is in limbo. He’s talented and young so someone may still want to commit to him on a multi-year deal, but he may have to settle for a one year prove it deal, even if it is a lucrative one in the range of 5-6 million. That would probably be his best option considering he could get a very lucrative deal next off-season if healthy.

DE Corey Wootton

An inside/outside defensive lineman who plays defensive end in base packages and moves inside to defensive tackle in sub packages. The 6-6 270 pounder has played in that prominent role for 2 seasons and has graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in both seasons, but just barely. He’s a decent starter and versatile. He’s sadly one of the Bears’ best defensive players, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea for them to bring him back on a multi-year deal that pays him like a starter somewhere in the neighborhood of 4 million per year.

QB Josh McCown

Going into this season, Josh McCown was an aging journeyman backup quarterback. He was in his age 34 season and hadn’t posted a QB rating of 70 or higher since 2006. Out of nowhere, he completed 66.5% of his passes for an average of 8.17 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 1 interception. There was even some talk that the Bears should continue starting him even after Jay Cutler was healthy and/or that the Bears should let Jay Cutler leave as a free agent, in favor of keeping McCown as the starter. The Bears instead kept Cutler, which was the right move. McCown probably isn’t the quarterback his numbers showed him to be last season and he’s also going into his age 35 season, but there’s no denying he’s great in Trestman’s system. They would be wise to bring him back as a backup for the increasingly injury prone Jay Cutler.

C Roberto Garza

Garza has had some rough seasons in the past, grading out below average at both guard and center in every season from 2010-2012, including a 2011 season in which he ranked 2nd worst among centers on Pro Football Focus. However, he played pretty well in 2013 in a new system with a new offensive line coach. Unfortunately, he’s going into his age 35 season so he won’t command a long-term deal. He’ll probably sign a one-year deal somewhere, probably back in Chicago.

CB Zachary Bowman

A 2008 5th round pick, Bowman is already going into his age 30 season and his 7th season in the league. He’s played sparingly in every season but two, 2009 and 2013. In both of those seasons, he didn’t play that well, although he wasn’t awful this last season. He’ll probably be looking at one year deals as a depth cornerback this off-season.

S Major Wright

A 2010 3rd round pick, Major Wright has been a starter for 3 seasons. He was alright in 2011 and 2012, but he struggled mightily in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked safety in 2013. He’ll probably have to settle for a one-year prove it deal this off-season. Anyone who gives him a long-term deal that pays him like a starter is making the wrong move and could be falling into a trap.

WR Devin Hester

He’s not a receiver anymore, which is a good thing, but, as good of a kick returner as he’s been in his career, he’s going into his age 32 season and the lifespan of kick returners isn’t that long, even really good ones. He has 18 special teams touchdowns all-time, a record, but just one in the last 2 seasons. He could be overpaid by someone off of name value.

OLB James Anderson

James Anderson had a great 2010 season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker in 2010. However, he struggled in both 2011 and 2012 and was cut by the Panthers. He was snatched up by the Bears and given a three-down role, leading the team in snaps played by linebackers. However, he struggled mightily, overmatched in his role, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked 4-3 outside linebacker. He shouldn’t be given a three-down role going forward.

CB Kelvin Hayden

A well-travelled, veteran slot cornerback, Hayden missed the entire 2013 season with a torn hamstring. Now going into his age 31 season, Hayden might have to wait a while for the phone to ring.

DT Landon Cohen

Cohen didn’t play a single snap in 2012 and played a combined 104 snaps from 2010-2012, but he was thrust into a bigger role in 2013 when Henry Melton went down with injury, playing 386 snaps. He struggled mightily, a huge part of the reason why the Bears sucked against the run this season. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 63rd ranked defensive tackle out of 69 eligible despite the limited playing time. He should have to wait a very long time for the phone to ring.

DT Jay Ratliff

An aging, injury prone player, Ratliff was once a great player, but he played just 269 snaps in 2012 and was on the street in 2013 after the Cowboys cut him, rather than activating him from the physically unable to perform list. The Bears were so desperate for defensive tackle help that they signed him off the streets, but he predictably struggled on 210 snaps. Going into his age 33 season, he’s going to have to wait a while for the phone to ring, if it ever does.

DT Nate Collins

A talented reserve in 2012, the 2010 undrafted free agent had a chance to shine in a larger role this season with Henry Melton’s injury, but Collins suffered one of his own, tearing his ACL in October. He’ll have a hard time finding work this off-season, but he’s a worthwhile reserve when healthy.

Cap Casualty Candidates

DE Julius Peppers

Julius Peppers is as close to being a sure cap casualty as anyone in the NFL. He’ll count for an absurd 18.18 million on the Bears’ cap next season and the Bears would save 9.82 million on the cap by cutting him. Given that he graded out below average on Pro Football Focus and is a shell of his former self going into his age 34 season, that’s a no brainer.

RB Michael Bush

The Bears can save 1.85 million on the cap by cutting Michael Bush going into his age 30 season, which seems like a reasonable move considering he’s an aging below average backup running back. He averaged 3.13 yards per carry last season and has averaged just 3.66 yards per carry over the past 3 seasons.

WR Earl Bennett

The Bears can save 2.45 million on the cap by cutting Earl Bennett this off-season. Considering he’s caught just 85 passes for 999 yards and 7 touchdowns in the past 3 years combined, he’s definitely expendable. They can find a cheaper, better slot receiver fairly easily.

P Adam Podlesh

Adam Podlesh struggled as the Bears’ punter this season. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst punter as the Bears ranked dead last in the NFL in punting average and 4th worst in net punting average. They can easily cut him this off-season and replace him with at least a league average punter.

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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (7-7-1) at Chicago Bears (8-7)

Aaron Rodgers is back! The Packers are saved! Right? Well that seems to be what everyone is thinking. The public pulse is that the Packers are now de facto NFC North Champions now that Mike McCarthy has said the words “Aaron Rodgers will be our starting quarterback” and the Bears are screwed. Reports say public bettors are literally lining up to take the Packers as mere 3 point favorites here. Public bettors always lose money in the long run though. There’s a reason why the odds makers set this line at 3. This feels like a trap bet.

Aaron Rodgers certainly upgrades their offense. Before he got hurt, the Packers were moving the chains at a 77.12% rate through 7 games, which would have ranked 3rd in the NFL right now if it had been sustained through 15 games, only behind Denver and San Diego. I have no doubt that if Rodgers had never gotten hurt, the Packers would have one of the NFL’s premier offenses once again right now. However, I have some concern that Rodgers won’t be 100% in his first game back.

The injury reportedly isn’t giving him any real pain when he throws and he’s been practicing well for a couple of weeks, but practice is one thing. It’s another thing entirely to be thrown back into game action after 2 months off. There could be some rust as he seeks to get back to game speed. He also has had limited practice with the first team, so there could be some chemistry issues. There is also some concern that Rodgers’ teammates give less than 100% knowing that their “savior” Aaron Rodgers is back.

The bigger concern, however, is this Packer defense. That’s something Rodgers can’t control and they’re one of the worst in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 74.42% rate. Injuries have hit them badly there as well and things aren’t going to get better this week. In fact, they could get worse as Clay Matthews is expected out for this one after re-breaking his thumb and also the defense could feel they don’t have to give 100% with savior Aaron Rodgers back. If you take their opponents’ rate of moving the chains and subtract it from that 77.12% number from earlier, that’s a differential of 2.70% and that’s an absolute best case scenario.

The Bears, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 75.56% rate, as opposed to 76.54%, a differential of -0.98% that ranks 19th in the NFL. Given that, this line should be around a pick em or 1 point in favor of Green Bay, instead of 3, and, again that’s an absolute best case scenario. The Packers could easily move the ball all over Chicago’s putrid defense, but the Bears could do the same to the Packers’ and they are the home team with the only quarterback starting in this game that has played in the last 2 or so months. Football Outsiders actually backs this up as their playoff odds model has this game at a 50/50 toss up, so getting that field goal with Chicago could be valuable.

The Bears’ putrid defense let up 54 points to the Eagles last week in a 54-11 loss, but that actually makes it more likely they’ll cover this week. It’s counterintuitive, but teams are 45-23 ATS off of a loss by 35 or more since 2002, including 20-6 ATS as home underdog. It makes sense when you think about it, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. I’ve already gotten into undervalued, but overlooked and embarrassed could definitely be in play as well. The Packers could overlook the “lowly” Bears with Rodgers back, while the Bears could give 110% to put last week behind them against a team that now has their starting quarterback back.

Of course, this is essentially a play-in game so both teams could be at 100%, which would nullify some of that and work to the Packers’ advantage, but getting field goal protection with Chicago does seem like the right call right now. I definitely wish we were getting more than a field goal though, especially since Jay Cutler has lost to Aaron Rodgers 7 out of 8 times, but there once was a time that Joe Flacco couldn’t beat Ben Roethlisberger. That changed. This could too. I’m tentatively going with the Bears for a low confidence pick, but if the line increases or I become more confident I could make this a medium confidence pick later in the week.

Green Bay Packers 31 Chicago Bears 30

Pick against spread: Chicago +3

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bears, Eagles, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (8-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-6)

The Eagles are a better team than the Bears. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they’re about equal. The Eagles are moving the chains at a 73.73% rate, as opposed to 73.78% for their opponents, a differential of -0.05% that ranks 16th in the NFL. The Bears, meanwhile, move the chains at a 76.20% rate, as opposed to 75.45% for their opponents, a differential of 0.75% that ranks 14th in the NFL.

However, that doesn’t take into account that the Eagles are a better team with Nick Foles under center, which is why the Eagles are a better team in spite of that. Nick Foles has been incredible on the season, completing 62.0% of his passes for an average of 9.02 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. As a result, the Eagles are 7-2 on the season when Nick Foles leads them in passing attempts, as opposed to 1-4 in other games.

Of course, that assumes normal circumstances and that this game means the same thing to these teams equally. This game could be meaningless to the Eagles if the Cowboys win earlier in the day, because they can’t clinch the division or be eliminated in this one. They might not rest their starters or anything, but that still could affect their motivation, especially against a Chicago team that is fighting for their playoff lives. Even if Dallas loses, the Eagles still could have their motivation affected because they know they can still clinch next week in Dallas, while Chicago is in a much bigger fight. They also might not be preparing for this game with the same urgency of the Bears, assuming a Dallas win against the hapless Redskins.

There are seeding consequences related to this game as if both teams were to win their respective divisions, the winner of this game would be the 3 seed and the loser would be the 4 seed, but there’s really not a big difference between a home game against San Francisco and a home game against New Orleans/Carolina, so these teams might not care about seeding. This is still a bigger game for the Bears. Of course, this line does seem to take that into account as it’s at 3, which suggests these two teams are equal. We’ve already established that really isn’t true. I’m still taking the Bears, but I’m not confident at all. I might change my mind on that pre-game if the line stays in the same place and the Cowboys win though, so stay tuned.

Update: The Cowboys won earlier today, so this game becomes meaningless for Philadelphia. I’m raising this to a low confidence pick at the new line of 2.5, but I’m not confident enough to put money on it.

Chicago Bears 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Chicago +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bears, Browns, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-9)

Ordinarily, teams dominate after a Monday Night Football blowout win, carrying over the momentum from a big win into next week’s game. Since 2002, teams are 32-13 ATS off of a Monday Night Football win over 21 or more. The Bears only beat the Cowboys by 17, but that was only because of a last second touchdown by Joseph Randle that didn’t matter at all. Even though teams that win by 17 to 20 points are 11-10 ATS the following week, I think we might be able to still apply the logic here. I don’t think a meaningless last second touchdown will kill all of the Bears’ momentum. On top of that, teams that lead by 21 or more after 3 quarters of a Monday Night Football game are 21-12 ATS the following week and the Bears led 35-14 at the end of the 3rd quarter.

However, while that meaningless late second probably didn’t kill the Bears’ momentum, bringing back Jay Cutler and sending Josh McCown to the bench might. McCown was amazing in 5 starts in place of Cutler this season. His 3-2 record doesn’t tell the whole story considering how bad the Bears’ defense has been this season. I kept waiting for him to shit the bed and remind us why he was a 34-year-old career backup who last posted a quarterback rating of over 70 in 2006, but he never did, bringing back flashes of Rich Gannon. All in all, he completed 66.8% of his passes for an average of 8.22 yards per attempt, 13 touchdowns, and an interception.

Jay Cutler hasn’t been bad this season, but his numbers actually pale in comparison to McCown’s. Cutler is completing 63.0% of his passes for an average of 7.20 yards per attempt, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on the season. Even worse, he might not be 100% in his first game back from injury, like against Detroit when he completed 21 of 40 for 250 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception. On top of that, his teammates could slack off knowing their starting quarterback is back, especially for an opponent like the Browns. We’re also not getting any line value with the Bears anymore, as they are 1.5 point favorites here in Cleveland.

You might look at this line and think “how can the Bears possibly not win by 2 or more in Cleveland?” However, they lost in Minnesota just two weeks ago. Their offense has been supporting this team, moving the chains at a 75.94% rate, but their defense allows opponents to move the chains at a 75.60% rate. The Browns don’t have a good offense, moving the chains at a 67.57% rate, but they should have some success against this Chicago defense, so if Chicago’s offense doesn’t do what it’s been doing lately against a sneaky good Cleveland defense, which allows opponents to move the chains at a 70.31% rate, the Bears could easily lose this game. I have this game calculated at a straight up pick using rate of moving the chains, and that’s before you even get to the Bears’ quarterback switch.

The Bears are also in a bad spot as non-divisional road favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs in Philadelphia next week. They could be distracted. Teams are 32-52 ATS in that spot since 1989. The Browns aren’t in a great spot either, as they will be underdogs once again in New York against the Jets next week, as non-divisional home underdogs are 93-112 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional road underdogs, but it’s not the same. The Browns could also be flat off of last week’s close loss in New England, but I don’t have any trend suggesting they would be. At the end of the day, I’m taking the Bears and hoping their offense can carry them and their momentum from last week will carry over, but I’m not confident.

Chicago Bears 24 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against spread: Chicago -1.5

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bears, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (7-5) at Chicago Bears (6-6)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, this line doesn’t make a ton of sense at first glance. So far this season, the Bears have actually played better than the Cowboys. The Bears rank 10th in DVOA, while the Cowboys rank 14th. In terms of rate of moving the chains, the Bears move them at a 77% rate, as opposed to 78% for their opponents, a differential that is 18th in the NFL. The Cowboys, however, sit at 24th, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 78% for their opponents.

However, the Bears have only covered two games this season, which could explain why this line is even. They have two pushes, but they are 2-8-2 ATS on the season and one of those covers was in the game Aaron Rodgers got knocked out in the first quarter and they still struggled to beat the Packers with an unprepared Seneca Wallace under center. Last week, they lost to the Vikings, who are among the worst teams in the NFL.

They’ve been very reliant on their offense this season, but as Josh McCown has played very well in Jay Cutler’s absence, completing 65.2% of his passes for an average of 7.94 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 1 interception. I don’t know how much I trust him though. All of this is coming from a guy who is 34 years old, has a career QB rating of 75.8, and hasn’t posted a QB rating higher than 70 since 2005. He didn’t suddenly become a starting caliber quarterback. If this is the week McCown decides to shit the bed, the Bears could be in a lot of trouble and that could happen. The Cowboys’ defense sucks, but they get Sean Lee back this week, which helps. Gun to my head, I’m taking the team that, on paper, has the better offense, and defense, and is at home, but I’m not confident in it.

Chicago Bears 24 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against spread: Chicago PK

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Bears, Uncategorized

Last week: 17 (-5)

Record: 6-5

Injuries, age, and the departure of defensive coaches Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli have reduced the Bears’ once proud defense to one of the worst in the NFL. If they can’t force a takeaway, they generally can’t keep their opponents from scoring, as they have forced a league worst 40 punts. It’s tough to rely on takeaways. They are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 78% rate, a rate that is increasing as injuries derail them more and more. Fortunately, their offense is doing enough to make up for it, also moving the chains at a 78% rate. Josh McCown is playing out of his mind right now, completing 65.5% of his passes for an average of 7.47 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception. I don’t know how much I trust him though. All of this is coming from a guy who is 34 years old, has a career QB rating of 74.7, and hasn’t posted a QB rating higher than 70 since 2005. He didn’t suddenly become a starting caliber quarterback. They might need to get Cutler back if they want to make the playoffs.

Week 12 Studs

WR Brandon Marshall

TE Martellus Bennett

Week 12 Duds

LT Jermon Bushrod

RT Jordan Mills

RG Kyle Long

LOLB Khaseem Greene

MLB Jon Bostic

ROLB James Anderson

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Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bears, Uncategorized, Vikings

Chicago Bears (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (2-8-1)

The Vikings are favored here for the 3rd time this season. The first two times didn’t go well. They lost straight up at home as touchdown plus favorites over the Browns week 3 and then they got blown out as small home favorites over the Panthers 35-10 during week 6. The Vikings are nowhere near the team they were last year. Adrian Peterson has been much more human this season, exposing their lack of a passing game, while their aging defense has suffered significantly more injuries and is missing the retired Antoine Winfield. They never should have been favored against Carolina and they never should have been favored by over a touchdown over the Browns.

The Vikings are favored here once again. Everyone knows they aren’t good, so we’re not getting the kind of line value with the underdog as we were in those first 2 games, but I still think we’re getting line value. The Vikings are currently 2-8-1. Teams who finish 2-14 or worse are 2-17 ATS as favorites since 2002. The Vikings might not necessarily finish that poorly, but all of their remaining games come against opponents who are currently .500 or better, including the Bears here, so they could. In terms of rate of moving the chains, they are moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents, which is a differential that is 31st in the NFL, so they’re certainly bad enough to finish with just 2 wins. Either way, I don’t think they deserve to be favored anyone, with the exception of a few. I don’t think the Bears are one of those exceptions.

The Bears have had injuries all over their team, especially on defense. Henry Melton and Charles Tillman are both out for the season, while Lance Briggs remains out indefinitely. Those aren’t their only problems defensively, as age and the departure of defensive coaches Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli have reduced their once proud defense to one of the worst in the NFL. If they can’t force a takeaway, they generally can’t keep their opponents from scoring, as they have forced a league worst 40 punts. It’s tough to rely on takeaways. They are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 78% rate, a rate that is increasing as injuries derail them more and more.

Fortunately, their offense is doing enough to make up for it, also moving the chains at a 78% rate. This is in spite of the injury to Jay Cutler. Josh McCown is playing out of his mind right now, completing 65.5% of his passes for an average of 7.47 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He has a 100.8 QB rating, leads the NFL in QBR, and is ProFootballFocus’ 7th ranked quarterback, despite just 3 starts and 2 relief appearances. The Bears don’t deserve to be underdogs here.

The Vikings could also be exhausted off of last week’s tie. They essentially played 5 quarters of football last week. You saw how bad the Packers looked this week against the Lions off of that tie last week. The Vikings aren’t on a short week here, which helps, but teams are now 4-9 ATS off of a tie since 1989. It’s not a huge sample size, but it makes sense and it’s worth noting.

There are reasons this isn’t a bigger play, however. I don’t know how much I trust Josh McCown. All of this is coming from a guy who is 34 years old, has a career QB rating of 73.6, and hasn’t posted a QB rating higher than 70 since 2005. He didn’t suddenly become a starting caliber quarterback. I have no doubt that Marc Trestman is a fantastic offensive coach who is making him look better than he is, but I don’t have a ton of faith he can keep this up continually. If he can’t, that would expose their defense.

Also, this kind of feels like a trap line. The public is all over the underdog because they know the Vikings suck. I normally like to stay away from public underdogs. What if this is the week Josh McCown shits the bed? What if Adrian Peterson rushes for 200+ yards on Chicago’s skeleton crew run defense? I still think the Bears are the right side, but I’m not that confident.

Chicago Bears 27 Minnesota Vikings 23 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Minnesota +1

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bears, Rams, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (6-4) at St. Louis Rams (4-6)

Before the bye, the Rams beat the Colts in blowout fashion. However, there were a lot of fluky things going on. They scored twice on return touchdowns, twice on long touchdowns, and only had one methodical touchdown drive. This forced the Colts to abandon their game plan, which made the deficit even worse. Take away the fluke plays and that’s a completely different game. This is still a team moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. With the exception of fluky wins against Indianapolis and Houston (same sort of thing), their wins have come by a field goal over Arizona and a pair of touchdowns over a Jacksonville team that has lost 9 games by double digits. On the other hand, they have 3 losses of 15 or more and 2 losses of 20 or more.

Since 1989, 5 teams have won a game by 25 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. 2 of them are the 2013 Rams. That’s not sustainable. After their last such game, a 25 point win over Houston, they got destroyed by Carolina in a 30-15 loss. In fact, teams who win a game by 17 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more are 5-18 ATS since 1989. Teams tend to be overconfident and overvalued in that situation and I think both are true here. The Rams don’t deserve to be favored over the Bears, even if it’s only by a point. At the end of the day, they have a decent defense and a backup quarterback.

The Rams are also in a terrible spot as teams are 34-69 ATS before being double digit dogs since 2010 and the Rams have a much bigger game in San Francisco next week that could easily be their Super Bowl since they aren’t really in the playoff mix. The Bears, meanwhile, are very much in the playoff mix and should be focused here for the Rams. I do think they’re a little overrated as well, mostly because their defense is atrocious (they made Baltimore’s offense look competent last week) and missing key players. Offensively, I don’t know how much I trust Josh McCown to keep this up.

Josh McCown is completing 60.4% of his passes for 7.47 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and no interceptions on this season, a QB rating of 100.0. This is coming from a guy who is 34 years old, has a career QB rating of 73.6, and hasn’t posted a QB rating higher than 70 since 2005. He didn’t suddenly become a starting caliber quarterback. I have no doubt that Marc Trestman is a fantastic offensive coach who is making him look better than he is, but I don’t have a ton of faith he can keep this up continually. If he can’t, that would expose their defense. However, I am somewhat confident they should be able to beat the Rams in a game that pretty much has an even line.

Chicago Bears 23 St. Louis Rams 16 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Chicago +1

Confidence: Low

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