Bears

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bears, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (4-5) at Chicago Bears (5-4)

This is one I could go either way on. Both teams are in good spots and distraction free. The Ravens host the Jets next week and will be favored, while the Bears go to St. Louis and will be favored. Non-divisional home favorites are 69-47 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional road dogs and non-divisional road dogs are 98-63 ATS before being non-divisional home favorites.

These two teams are also as evenly matched as they come. Baltimore has a horrible offense that is moving the chains at a 68% rate, but their defense is holding opponents to 68% as well. Chicago has a horrible defense that allows opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate, but their offense moves the chains at a 77% rate. They are 16th and 15th respectively in rate of moving the chains differential and this line at 3 makes perfect sense. We’re not getting any line value with either side.

Chicago is dealing with crippling injuries. Before the season, the Bears had 6 above average or better starters, Julius Peppers, Henry Melton, Lance Briggs, Tim Jennings, Charles Tillman, and Major Wright. Henry Melton is already out for the season. Charles Tillman is now out until the playoffs, if they can make them. Lance Briggs is out indefinitely. None of those guys were playing up to their ability before going down anyway. Julius Peppers is showing his age and Major Wright is regressing in a major way.

Their defense could get worse going forward, which would put even more pressure on their offense, which is also dealing with a serious injury as Jay Cutler is out. Josh McCown has played well in Cutler’s absence, arguably as good as Cutler could have, completing 60.0% of his passes for an average of 7.69 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions. There are no guarantees he can keep that up though, given his career numbers (58.7%, 6.37 YPA, 41 touchdowns, 44 interceptions), despite the strong offensive supporting cast and coaching staff.

Baltimore, however, has been absolutely awful on the road thus far this season, going 1-4, losing in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo, while getting blown out in Denver. This isn’t a new trend. Since 2010, they are 26-4 at home, but 18-17 on the road. At the end of the day, I’m going to fade the Ravens on the road, but I’m not confident in Chicago at all. This is the biggest toss up of the week for me.

Chicago Bears 24 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against spread: Chicago -3

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Bears, Uncategorized

Last week: 13 (+1)

Record: 5-4

Another one bites the dust on the Bears’ defense. Before the season, the Bears had 6 above average or better starters, Julius Peppers, Henry Melton, Lance Briggs, Tim Jennings, Charles Tillman, and Major Wright. Henry Melton is already out for the season. Charles Tillman is now out until the playoffs, if they can make them. Lance Briggs is out indefinitely. None of those guys were playing up to their ability before going down anyway. Julius Peppers is showing his age and Major Wright is regressing in a major way. They are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate, which could only get worse thanks to injuries. Injuries, age, and departed coordinators have derailed a one proud defense in the worst way. They’ll need Josh McCown to continue playing well as Cutler’s backup to stay relevant with Cutler out indefinitely as well. He was not ready to return from his groin tear last week and now has a high ankle sprain as well.

Week 10 Studs

WR Brandon Marshall

Week 10 Duds

RB Matt Forte

LG Matt Slauson

LE David Bass

DT Corey Wootton

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Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Bears, Uncategorized

Last week: 16 (+3)

Record: 5-3

The Bears are 5-3, but they aren’t as good as their record. They get Jay Cutler back this week, but I don’t think that’s going to solve their problems. Cutler only missed about 7 quarters and Josh McCown played about as well as Cutler could have in his absence, completing 59.0% of his passes for an average of 7.8 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and no interception. Cutler is a better long-term solution, but the offense is hardly the problem, moving the chains at a 78% rate. The defense is the bigger problem, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate. Henry Melton is out for the season. Lance Briggs is out indefinitely. Charles Tillman is dealing with a debilitating injury. Julius Peppers, Tim Jennings, and Major Wright are all struggling by their standards. They are forcing a league worst 30 punts and things have only gotten worse of late as their takeaway rate has predictably dropped and their health has gone downhill. Last season they were an elite stop unit that could also take the ball away from you. This you, if they are unable to come up with a takeaway, they have a very, very hard time getting you off the field and preventing you from scoring.

Week 9 Studs

QB Josh McCown

RB Matt Forte

WR Brandon Marshall

LT Jermon Bushrod

LG Matt Slauson

Week 9 Duds

RT Jordan Mills

SS Major Wright

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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bears, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (5-3) at Chicago Bears (5-3)

The Bears are 5-3, but they aren’t as good as their record. Their wins came at home by 3 over Cincinnati, who isn’t a very good road team (loss in Cleveland, Miami, almost in Buffalo), at home by 1 over Minnesota, who isn’t good, by 17 in Pittsburgh, who, again, isn’t very good and could have won if not for return touchdowns, at home against the Giants by 6, who, again, isn’t very good and could have won if not for return touchdowns, and last week in Green Bay against Seneca Wallace. Their losses, meanwhile, have come in Washington, at home for New Orleans, who isn’t a good road team, and in Detroit against this Lions team, who was actually facing a rough trend the last time around with Green Bay on deck. The Bears rank just 14th in rate of moving the chains differential.

Things aren’t going to get better with Jay Cutler right? Well, not necessarily. Remember, Cutler only missed about 7 quarters and Josh McCown played about as well as Cutler could have in his absence, completing 59.0% of his passes for an average of 7.8 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and no interception. Cutler is a better long-term solution, but the offense is hardly the problem, moving the chains at a 78% rate. The defense is the bigger problem, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate.

They are forcing a league worst 30 punts and things have only gotten worse of late as their takeaway rate has predictably dropped. Last season they were an elite stop unit that could also take the ball away from you. This you, if they are unable to come up with a takeaway, they have a very, very hard time getting you off the field and preventing you from scoring. Coming into the season, they had lost top defensive minds Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli, and 4 of their top-5 defensive players. Those 4 players have all played worse this season and the other one, Henry Melton, is one for the season with injury. Also dealing with injuries are Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman. The latter is out indefinitely, while the former is a shell of his former self as a result. As I said, things are only going to get worse.

Also, the Bears’ supporting cast could slack off and ease up with Cutler returning. They’ve done a great job in his absence and they might feel they no longer have to do that with Cutler back. On top of that, Cutler himself could be very limited. Remember, he was supposed to miss about a month. He’ll be exactly 3 weeks removed from the injury when he returns this week. It’s not a high confidence pick or anything, but the Lions should be the right side.

Detroit Lions 31 Chicago Bears 27

Pick against spread: Detroit PK

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (4-3) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)

The Packers have been so dominant at home over the past few seasons that they’re almost an automatic bet at home. They are 22-8 ATS at home since 2010. They are large favorites here at -11, but that’s not an issue. They are 9-4 ATS as double digit home favorites in that time frame. Besides, they definitely deserve to be favored by at least 11 points. In fact, this line might even be too low, before you even take into account their home dominance.

After they started the year 1-2, the Packers are now 5-2. They are moving the chains at an 81% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, the 2nd best differential in the NFL. 4 of their first 7 games, including their 2 losses, came against top-15 teams in my Power Rankings. Their schedule gets easier down the stretch and things will only get better as they get guys back from injuries.

They are still missing significant parts of their team for this game, but they draft and player develop so well that they have enough depth to make up for it. Guys like Jamari Lattimore have stepped up big time when needed. They’ve blown out their last 2 opponents, including a win in Minnesota last week in which they accumulated 26 first downs and didn’t punt once. They have another chance to get a blowout victory here against an inferior opponent and I think they have a very good chance to do so here this week.

The Bears are 4-3, but they are not as good as their record. They rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77% rate and allowing opponents to do the same. Their once dominant defense has been horrendous this season thanks to age (4 of their top-5 guys are in their age 30 season or older), injury (Henry Melton is out for the year, Charles Tillman is dealing with an injury that is limiting him significantly, now Lance Briggs is out indefinitely), and departed coaches (Lovie Smith, Rod Marinelli) and it seems to get worse every week.

Their offense has been what has been carrying them this season, but that took a serious hit when Jay Cutler suffered a groin injury that is going to cause him to miss about a month. Not only are they not as good as their 4-3 record, but things are going to get worse going forward. Josh McCown played well in place of Cutler against Washington, completing 14 of 20 for 204 yards and a touchdown in an eventual 45-41 loss and it’s possible their offensive coaching staff could coach him up, with a solid supporting cast, but I definitely have my doubts in him.

In his career, he completes 58.2% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 38 touchdowns, and 44 interceptions on 1133 attempts. I have this line calculated at -9 on paper, but when you take into account Chicago’s injury situation and Green Bay’s home dominance, the 11 point line not only makes sense, but might even be too low. I have a good deal of confidence in the Packers this week.

Green Bay Packers 31 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against spread: Green Bay -11

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Bears, Uncategorized

Last week: 13 (-2)

Record: 4-3

The Bears’ defense continues to be terrible and is only getting worse after allowing 5 touchdowns in Washington this week. They are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate. Now Jay Cutler is out for at least 4 weeks with a torn groin. The Bears are 4-3, but they have a negative rate of moving the chains differential and face Green Bay, Detroit, and Baltimore in the next 3 games. They could be 4-3 going on 4-6.

Week 7 Studs

TE Martellus Bennett

LOLB Lance Briggs

Week 7 Duds

RT Jordan Mills

DT Stephen Paea

MLB Jon Bostic

FS Chris Conte

SS Major Wright

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Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bears, Commanders, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (4-2) at Washington Redskins (1-4)

The Bears seem to be pretty overrated by the public. They are 4-2, but their defense has been nowhere near as good as it traditionally was in the Lovie Smith era. Last year, they were a dominant stop unit that also took the ball away. This year, if they can’t take the ball away from you, they generally can’t stop you from scoring, forcing 19 punts in 6 games this season, which puts them dead last in the NFL in punts forced per game.

If you watched them play the 0-6 Giants at home, this was obvious as the Bears only won by 6 despite winning the turnover battle by 3, including a pick six that ended up being the deciding score. That’s a very bad thing because they won’t always be able to dominate the turnover battle. It’s something that’s very inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams who have a -4 turnover margin in a given game average a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week. The same is true for teams that have a turnover margin of +4 in a given game. They’ll force more punts if they stop taking away the ball as often, but this is still a stop unit that is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate.

This is for several reasons. One is age as they have four key 30+ players on their defense in Julius Peppers, Lance Briggs, Tim Jennings, and Charles Tillman, none of whom is playing as well as they did in 2012. Injuries are also a problem. Henry Melton is the 5th of their 5 defensive studs from 2012 and he’s out for the season with a torn ACL. His backup Nate Collins is also out for the season and Stephen Paea, the other starting defensive tackle, has missed time with injury. He’ll be back this week, but the Bears will still start converted defensive end Corey Wootton at next to him. The 270 pounder is unsurprisingly getting blown off the line of scrimmage in the run game.

The third issue is probably that they miss departed defensive minded Head Coach Lovie Smith, as well as defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli. New defensive coordinator Mel Tucker does not nearly have the same track record as those two. New Head Coach Marc Trestman actually has done a great job with the offense, which, also thanks to off-season additions, is much improved this season. Still, they are moving the ball at just a 75% rate, which is worse than the rate the defense is allowing.

Despite having a worse record than the Redskins, the Redskins actually have a better differential in terms of rate of moving the chains, albeit just 3/10ths of a percent higher. In spite of this, the Bears are actually favored on the road and the public is all over them. I don’t think that’s accurate. The Redskins should move the ball with ease on the Bears and, if we assume net zero turnovers, which I think is generally a smart assumption, I think the Redskins have a much better chance of winning here at home. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is the Redskins are playing the Broncos next week. Teams are 31-64 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. They could be distracted. They should still be the right side though, especially in a must win at 1-4.

Washington Redskins 27 Chicago Bears 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Washington +1

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Bears, Uncategorized

Last week: 13 (+0)

It was obvious to anyone watching a depleted Giants team move the chains with ease against them, but the Bears defense is a shell of its former self. Last season, it was a dominant unit that could also take the ball away from you. Now if they can’t take the ball away from you, they generally can’t stop you from scoring, forcing just 19 punts in 6 games. Injuries and age are a huge part of it, as well as the departure of defensive minds Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli.

Week 6 Studs

WR Brandon Marshall

LT Jermon Bushrod

DT Corey Wootton

Week 6 Duds

RE Julius Peppers

LE Shea McClellin

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Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Bears, Uncategorized

Last week: 11 (-2)

Record: 3-2

The Bears’ defense is a huge concern for the first time in a long time. They are allowing opponents to move the chains on 76% of chances. Over 30 veterans like Charles Tillman, Julius Peppers, and Lance Briggs have disappointed and I think they generally miss Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli. The downgrade from those two to Mel Tucker as their primary defensive mind is immense. Henry Melton’s injury hasn’t helped and even his replacement, Nate Collins, has also torn his ACL.

Week 5 Studs

WR Alshon Jeffery

Week 5 Duds

LT Jermon Bushrod

ROLB James Anderson

SS Major Wright

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