Bears

New York Giants at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bears, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (0-5) at Chicago Bears (3-2)

Ordinarily, Chicago would be the easy choice in this situation. The home team also usually covers on Thursday Night Football, because, on a short week, you need all the time you can get to prepare and having to travel puts you at a disadvantage. The home team is especially advantaged when they are favored and in a non-divisional matchup.

It makes sense that a better team would be more prepared for a short week and the Bears are definitely the better team here. The fact that these are non-divisional opponents is relevant because that means they are relatively unfamiliar with each other. If they were divisional opponents, it would nullify Chicago’s advantage at home, but that’s not the case. Non-divisional home favorites are 29-12 ATS on Thursday Night since 1989, including 12-1 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more.

However, the Giants are playing with nothing to lose here and have more talent than most 0-5 teams do. They have been killed by takeaways, with a -13 turnover margin. At this pace, they will be -42 in turnovers this season, which would destroy the modern day record of -30. Basically, the Giants can cut their turnover margin in half going forward (from -2.6 per game to -1.3 per game) and still approach being all-time bad in turnovers (that would put them at -27). Things will get better in this aspect going forward. Eli Manning won’t continue throwing interceptions at a rate nearly twice his career rate (5.9% on the season, 3.3% on his career). They also won’t continue recovering just 28.6% of fumbles.

The Giants have also historically been a better road team than home team, going 50-32 ATS on the road since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. They are especially good as road dogs, going 32-19 ATS in that situation in the aforementioned time frame. This team has always thrived when overlooked and when nobody believes in them and I think that’s definitely the case this week. They’re especially good as road dogs early in the season, going 17-8 ATS as road dogs before week 10 since 2004. They are generally a better first half of the second team than second half of the season team (53-24 first 8 games, 30-42 second 8 games since 2004). Clearly that’s not the case this season, but it’s still worth noting.

The Giants also have a strong trend in their favor. Since 2008, teams are 57-26 as underdogs off of a loss as favorites before being favorites. The Giants lost to home to the Eagles as favorites last week and will host the lowly Vikings. Still, I can’t take the Giants here. I’ve been burned plenty of times with them this season and things are going to be worse on a short week on the road against a superior team. Turnovers aren’t the only problem with this team. They can’t block, run the football, or stop anyone (opponents are moving the chains against them 79% of the time). They’ll get better as the season goes on, but I like the Bears here. It’s not a strong play though.

Chicago Bears 27 New York Giants 17

Pick against spread: Chicago -8

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Bears, Uncategorized

Last week: 10 (-1)

Record: 3-1

The Bears are 3-1, but they aren’t as good as their record. Their defense is not playing nearly as well as it did last season, forcing just 12 punts all season. Only Philadelphia has forced fewer among teams who have played all 4 games. Yes, they’ve forced 14 takeaways, but they can’t continue relying on forcing takeaways to stop drives. They won’t recover 2 out of every 3 of their opponent’s fumbles all season. They didn’t recover fumbles at the same rate against Detroit and lost the turnover battle, surrendering 40 points in the process, the first time the Bears had surrendered 40+ points in a game since 2009. I think they miss Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli defensively, while over 30 veterans Julius Peppers, Charles Tillman, and Lance Briggs are underachieving. As a result, they are allowing opponents to move the chains 75% of the time, right in the middle of the pack. They actually have a negative differential in this aspect, moving the chains about 73% of the time offensively.

Week 4 Studs

RE Julius Peppers

Week 4 Duds

QB Jay Cutler

RT Jordan Mills

C Roberto Garza

RE Shea McClellin

LOLB Lance  Briggs

SS Major Wright

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New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bears, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (4-0) at Chicago Bears (3-1)

The Saints and Dolphins both went into Monday Night’s game at 3-0, after going 7-9 last season, but at the end of the day, it was the Saints who proved they were for real, while the Dolphins looked like a team that was never very good to begin with. The Saints obviously dominated in a 21 point win and it’s not like the Dolphins were some scrubs. They’re a decent football team. Right now, I think the Saints are the 3rd best team in the NFL and could compete with Seattle or Denver on a neutral field.

They are 3rd in the NFL in terms of converting 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of first downs, converting on 81%. A strong offense is nothing new in New Orleans. Even with Sean Payton gone last year, the Saints were 3rd in the NFL in points scored behind only the Patriots and Broncos. However, they are also playing very well on defense, allowing opponents to convert 1st and 10 on just 66% of chances, 3rd best in the NFL. This is a huge change from last year, when they allowed the 2nd most points per game in the league and surrendered the most yards in NFL history.

Rob Ryan has really turned things around as the Saints have held all 4 of their opponents to 17 points or fewer, something they did just 3 times all last season. Junior Galette and Cameron Jordan have broken out as among the best players in the NFL at their respective positions in their new 3-4 defense, with Jordan even playing like an All-Pro. As a result, they are +15% in differential in terms of how often they are converting for a subsequent set of downs, as opposed to how often their opponents are. That’s the best in the NFL through 4 games. The Saints also should be able to continue their momentum from their huge Monday Night Football win into this week. Since 2002, teams are 29-13 ATS off Monday Night Football wins of 21 points or more.

The Bears, meanwhile, are 3-1, but they aren’t as good as their record. Their defense is not playing nearly as well as it did last season, forcing just 12 punts all season. Only Philadelphia has forced fewer among teams who have played all 4 games. Yes, they’ve forced 14 takeaways, but they can’t continue relying on forcing takeaways to stop drives. They won’t recover 2 out of every 3 of their opponent’s fumbles all season. They didn’t recover fumbles at the same rate against Detroit and lost the turnover battle, surrendering 40 points in the process, the first time the Bears had surrendered 40+ points in a game since 2009.

I think they miss Lovie Smith and Rod Marinelli defensively, while over 30 veterans Julius Peppers, Charles Tillman, and Lance Briggs are underachieving. As a result, they are allowing opponents to convert for a subsequent set of first downs 75% of the time, right in the middle of the pack. They actually have a negative differential in this aspect, converting about 73% of the time offensively. This would be a Pick of the Week if I trusted the Saints more on the road, but I feel like this line should be at least -3 favor of New Orleans. It’s really an elite team versus a more pedestrian/slightly above average team and the Saints 20-23 ATS road record since 2008 isn’t terrible. This could be a statement road win for the Saints.

New Orleans Saints 24 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against spread: New Orleans PK

Confidence: High

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Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bears, Lions, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (3-0) at Detroit Lions (2-1)

The Bears are 3-0, but they were favored in all 3 games. Their “vaunted” defense has forced a league low 9 punts all season. Yes, they have 11 takeaways, but their combined punts forced and takeaways is just 20, which is also one of the worst in the NFL. In terms of preventing their opponents from moving the chains on any given 1st and 10, they are right around 75%, very middle of the pack, which is right around where their improved offense is as well. They can’t continue relying on takeaways and recovering 75% of fumbles they force. It’s very possible they miss Lovie Smith’s defensive leadership. Over 30 veterans Charles Tillman, Julius Peppers, and Lance Briggs are all disappointing. And now they’re without Henry Melton. This is a very shaky 3-0.

Detroit, meanwhile, is 2-1, but I think they’re playing a little bit better. They are converting 1st and 10 for another first down about 76% of the time, while allowing their opponents to do so about 74% of the time and they are ahead of Chicago in terms of differential there. They also played better against Minnesota than Chicago, the one mutual opponent these two teams have faced thus far. The Lions are no longer suffering from the problems that plagued them last season (turnovers, poor special teams, inability to win close games, inability to stop opponents from scoring defensive touchdowns) and that has allowed their talent to shine through like it did in 2011. I don’t think they’re significantly better than the Bears, but I think they’re a little bit better and that these two division rivals will split the season series with the home team winning each time.

At least that’s what I originally thought until I realized Detroit is in one of the most negative trends situations. Divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs are 16-48 ATS since 2002. I don’t know why exactly, but it’s very possible the Lions could be caught looking forward to Green Bay next week. It’s not enough for me to take Chicago and I think it’s possible the trend won’t apply here because Chicago is 3-0 and not someone to be overlooked, but I can’t have confidence on Detroit with that trend lingering. Maybe Chicago wins in Detroit and they get them back in Chicago later this year and they split the season series that way, I don’t know. But Chicago can beat Detroit in Detroit without being better than Detroit.

Detroit Lions 24 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against spread: Detroit -3

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Bears, Uncategorized

Last week: 9 (-1)

The Bears are 3-0, but they were favored in all 3 games. Win in Detroit this week and we’ll talk about seriously moving them up. Their “vaunted” defense has forced a league low 9 punts all season. Yes, they have 11 takeaways, but their combined punts forced and takeaways is just 20, which is also one of the worst in the NFL. In terms of preventing their opponents from moving the chains on any given 1st and 10, they are right around 75%, very middle of the pack, which is right around where their improved offense is as well. They can’t continue relying on takeaways and recovering 75% of fumbles they force. It’s very possible they miss Lovie Smith’s defensive leadership. Over 30 veterans Charles Tillman, Julius Peppers, and Lance Briggs are also disappointing. And now they’re without Henry Melton. This is a very shaky 3-0.

Week 3 Studs

RG Kyle Long

RE Julius Peppers

Week 3 Duds

TE Martellus Bennett

TE Steve Maneri

RT Jordan Mills

CB Charles Tillman

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Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bears, Steelers, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (2-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2)

I tweeted before Pittsburgh/Cincinnati that I could see the loser of the game still making the playoffs after starting 0-2 and I still feel Pittsburgh could sneak in, even after losing. It was a pretty competitive game either way. If David Paulson doesn’t fumble in field goal range in the 1st quarter and a tipped ball doesn’t turn into an interception in the 4th quarter, that could have been a completely different game.

The Steelers really need Le’Veon Bell to come back healthy and play well. He’s expected back this week, though probably in a limited role. Heath Miller is expected to return as well, but it’s unclear how limited he’ll be in his first game back from a torn ACL suffered last December. Right now, their offense doesn’t make any sense, as they have no running game, a deep throw quarterback, speed receivers, an overmatched offensive coordinator who loves short throws, and an offensive line that can’t block. That could be a different story this week as their health improves.

Fortunately, the defense looks like one of the better units in the NFL thanks to the return of Troy Polamalu healthy. They should remain a tough defense going forward and I find it hard to believe they’ll be the 3rd least efficient offense in the NFL (in terms of moving the chains) all season, so I haven’t completely given up on them, especially in an AFC North that looks clear as mud right now.

This week, they face an NFC North team which is a different monster, but it’s not like Chicago is that great of a team. I don’t believe that the Bears deserve to be 2.5 point favorites here in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers have been home dogs just 6 times in the Ben Roethlisberger era, going 3-1-2 ATS. I also don’t believe that the Steelers are going to start this season 0-3. At the same time, I’m not confident in them at all right now.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Chicago Bears 16 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +2.5

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Bears, Uncategorized

Last week: 10

Beating the Vikings by 1 isn’t that impressive, but they did it despite losing the turnover battle, something that only happens 20.9% of the time. The NFC is tough, but the Bears have a chance to be right in the playoff hunt. They aren’t dominating the turnover battle like they were last year, as could be expected, but they have an improved offense thanks to a very impressive rookie right side of the offensive line with Kyle Long and Jordan Mills. Along with fellow newcomers Jermon Bushrod and Matt Slauson, they’ve fortified an offensive line that has allowed just 1 sack all season, despite facing Minnesota and Cincinnati, two of the better sack teams in the NFL a year ago.

Week 2 Studs

C Roberto Garza

TE Martellus Bennett

LOLB Lance Briggs

Week 2 Duds

None

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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bears, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at Chicago Bears (1-0)

The Vikings were one of the teams I predicted a big win change for. Part of the reason for this is the Vikings went from 3 wins to 10 last season. Ordinarily, we can expect teams that have big win changes to have an opposite change of about half the following season, so a 7 win increase is, on average, followed by a 3.5 win increase. This is because the NFL has such a short season that, when teams have big win changes, it has more to do with bad or good luck than an actual change in talent level.

However, that’s just the tip of the iceberg. I’m not going to get into all the details again, but they were unsustainably good in close games (5-1), had unsustainably few injuries (2nd fewest in the NFL), and got an unsustainably good performance from Adrian Peterson. This season, they’re without top cornerback Antoine Winfield and they’re also without fullback Jerome Felton for the first 3 games. He was as valuable as a fullback could be last season and a big part of the reason why Peterson had such a big season.

Christian Ponder averaged just 6.1 yards per carry last season. How improbable was it that the Vikings made the playoffs despite this kind of quarterback play? Well, since 2006, 22 teams have averaged 6 yards or fewer per attempt. Of those 21 teams, 20 won 5 or fewer games, none won more than 7 and as a group they averaged 4.0 wins per season and 14.8 points per game. The Vikings won 10 games and averaged 23.7 points per game. I know the Vikings technically averaged 6.1 YPA, but I don’t really think that extra 1/10 of the yard was what got them the extra 6 wins. Ponder was even worse without Percy Harvin, completing just 5.4 yards per attempt without him. Harvin is gone and replacements Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson are washed up/injury prone and incredibly raw respectively.

The Vikings lost by 10 in the opener, but it was even worse than that. Detroit had 28 first downs and 469 total yards to 16 first downs and 330 total yards for Minnesota. Exclude Adrian Peterson’s 78-yard touchdown on his first carry and it would have been a 34-17 game and Peterson would have just managed 15 yards on 17 carries. They simply can’t rely on him to do what he did last year again. 93 rushing yards total isn’t bad, but he surpassed that 10 times last season. Ponder again struggled, completing 18 of 28 for 236 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions.

This week, the Vikings go to Chicago and will play outside, where Christian Ponder especially struggles. In his career, he completes 58.2% of his passes for 5.7 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions outside, where his lack of arm strength is magnified. He’s been even worse in the Windy City in 2 starts, completing 33 of 60 (55.0%) for 258 yards (4.3 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, both blowout losses. I don’t feel like this line fully takes into account how bad the Vikings are going to be this season. It should probably be at -10 considering Ponder’s issues outside, so I like the Bears moderately as only 5.5 point favorites.

Chicago Bears 23 Minnesota Vikings 12

Pick against spread: Chicago -5.5

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Bears, Uncategorized

The way AJ Green shredded a secondary that was supposed to be the strength of this team is concerning, but AJ Green is a top-3 receiver in this league so maybe they get a pass. The good news is their offense looked very good against a very strong Cincinnati defense. Jay Cutler wasn’t sacked once by a dominant Cincinnati defensive line as their retooled offensive line help up. The most impressive was rookie right tackle Jordan Mills, as the 5th rounder allowed just 1 pressure all game.

Week 1 Studs

QB Jay Cutler

ROLB James Anderson

DT Stephen Paea

Week 1 Duds

TE Martellus Bennett

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Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bears, Bengals, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)

With the Ravens having a poor off-season (at least in the general public’s eyes) and the Steelers coming off an 8-8 season, the Bengals have been popularly anointed the best team in the AFC North and the likely division champ. This does make some sense. They probably have more non-quarterback talent than any team in that division. They return a strong defense and a strong offensive line and add rookies Giovani Bernard and Tyler Eifert to the fold offensively, which will give the Bengals’ offense more versatility and balance. The added talent could also allow #1 receiver AJ Green to shine even more in his 3rd year in the league.

However, I still don’t know if Andy Dalton is capable of consistently beating top level teams. If you count the game against the Ravens’ backups week 17 of 2012 as a non-playoff team, Dalton is 18-4 against non-playoff teams in his career, but just 1-11 against playoff teams, including two post-season early exits. That one win was against the early season Redskins, who lost left tackle Trent Williams in that game. In those 12 games against future playoff teams, Dalton was 250 of 445 (56.2%) for 2934 yards (6.6 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. In the other 22 games, he’s 420 of 679 (61.9%) for 4518 yards (6.7 YPA), 35 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions.

Are the Bears are playoff team? Well I don’t think anyone would be shocked if they made the playoffs. I didn’t predict them to make the playoffs, but mostly because the NFC is so loaded. If they were in the AFC like the Bengals, I don’t think they would have much problem at least grabbing a Wild Card. I think they certainly more have in common with the types of teams Dalton has been unable to beat than the types of teams he has dominated.

The Bears were overly reliant on dominating the turnover battle (+20) and the return touchdown battle (+7 touchdowns, 49 points) last season, two things that would have been very tough for them to carry into 2013. Their offense scored just 19.1 points per game last season if you take out the points scored by the defense on returns. That number doesn’t tell the whole story because the offense saw fewer drives to no fault of their own as a result of the defense taking it to the house 10 times, but even on a per drive basis, they ranked 22nd in the NFL scoring 1.62 points per drive.

However, credit the Bears for addressing their offensive needs this off-season. Drew Brees made Jermon Bushrod look better than he was and the Bears overpaid him, but he still represents an upgrade at left tackle over J’Marcus Webb, who went from starting left tackle to final cut when his #1 fan Mike Tice was let go this off-season. Martellus Bennett is light years better than Kellen Davis, who had one of the worst receiving seasons by a tight end in recent memory last season.

1st round pick Kyle Long slots in at right guard and if his pre-season is any indication, he won’t be overmatched at the NFL level. Alshon Jeffery also had a strong pre-season and will serve as a much needed consistent #2 opposite Brandon Marshall. On top of that, offensive minded Head Coach Marc Trestman comes in, hoping to add some life to an offense that was stagnant and predictable over the past few years under defensive minded Head Coach Lovie Smith and his ineffective group of offensive assistant.

This is by far the strongest supporting cast Jay Cutler has had since joining the Bears and, while they might score not more than the 23.4 points per game (16th in the NFL) they scored as a team last season, they’ll be a more consistent offensive team and they should be right around middle of the pack in scoring. Defensively, they remain one of the better stop units in the NFL, even if they don’t force as many turnovers as they did last season (the 3rd most by a team since 2002). They were #1 in the NFL in points allowed per drive last season.

On top of this, the Bengals could be without left tackle Andrew Whitworth for this game with a knee injury, which would be a huge loss. Whitworth finally got his due, making the Pro-Bowl last season, but he’s been consistently one of the best pass blocking left tackles in the game. Swing tackle Anthony Collins would be a significant downgrade from Whitworth and Bears’ defensive end Julius Peppers could probably have his way with him and create multiple pressures and possible a couple of sacks as well.

This is especially bad news because Andy Dalton is so poor under pressure. In terms of under pressure efficiency (which basically takes into account how often a quarterback completes a pass under pressure, takes a sack under pressure, throws an interception under pressure, or scrambles for a gain under pressure), Dalton was 3rd worst in the NFL last season, throwing 5 interceptions, completing 39.4% of his passes and taking a sack 29.4% of the time. Given that this line is just -3 and that the Bears are at home, I feel pretty confident taking the Bears here.

Also, one note, I’m changing how I do picks this year. I’ll be grouping my picks into high confidence, medium confidence, low confidence, and no confidence picks. I’ll also have one pick of the week.

Chicago Bears 20 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against spread: Chicago -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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