Bears

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers

Green Bay Packers (9-4) at Chicago Bears  (8-5)

I’ve called the Packers overrated before. This was because they were really banged up with injuries and as a result, they weren’t really playing as well as people thought they are. Injuries to Cedric Benson and now James Starks left the mediocre Alex Green as the feature back, running behind an offensive line that struggles both to run block and pass protect. Bryan Bulaga is out for the season and TJ Lang, who moved from guard to right tackle in his absence, has also missed time. Undrafted free agent Don Barclay, who has sucked in the last two weeks in his absence, might get this start.

On the defensive side of the ball, Clay Matthews has also missed time, leaving the Packers without their top pass rusher and leaving them with only one of the 4 starting linebackers they entered into Training Camp with. Nick Perry and Desmond Bishop are on IR, while DJ Smith, who replaced Bishop, is also on IR. Charles Woodson has also missed time.

The Packers were so good in 2010 despite injuries because they still had key defensive players healthy. Clay Matthews, Desmond Bishop, Cullen Jenkins, BJ Raji, Tramon Williams, Charles Woodson, and Nick Collins were all huge for them on the league’s 2nd ranked scoring defense. Matthews and Bishop are out for the year and Woodson has also missed time. Jenkins left as a free agent and Raji hasn’t been the same since 2010. Nick Collins had to retire because of injury, leaving Williams as the only one of those 7 healthy and playing near his 2010 level this year. They’ve added some nice young players in the meantime, like Casey Hayward, but it’s not enough for them to be considered as good currently as they once were.

Last year, they were so good despite a rough defense because they dominated the turnover battle and scored 35.0 points per game. This year, thanks to injuries and the pure unsustainability of that 35.0 points per game figure, they are averaging just 24.8 points per game. That’s good, but a far cry from last season. They didn’t come into this season with the goal of being the league’s #11 scoring offense. Meanwhile, their turnover differential is down from +24 to +7. All of this has combined to expose a vulnerable and now injury riddled defense.

Look at the Packers’ last 7 games and I’ll show you what I mean. Their only win by more than 10 in that stretch was before their bye and this is despite playing Arizona, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Minnesota, and the Lions twice. Meanwhile, the only real team they played during that stretch, the Giants, absolutely blew them out. Even more embarrassing, that blowout win for the Giants was sandwiched in between straight up losses as road dogs to the Bengals and Redskins.

The Packers rank just 12th in net points per drive at 0.17, as a result. The Bears, meanwhile, rank 9th at 0.40. If you take the difference between those two figures, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that line should be Chicago -5. That holds up somewhat to DVOA, as the Bears rank 6th in DVOA and weighted DVOA, while the Packers rank 5th and 7th respectively. Nothing in there says the Bears should be 3 point home dogs.

We’re getting significant line value with the Bears, especially since this line has moved significantly in the past week. This line was Chicago -1 last week and now it’s at Green Bay -3. In spite of this, the public is all over the Packers and I love fading the public, especially on heavy public leans and especially on heavy public leans after big line movements. Chicago being home dogs has put them in a good spot trends wise. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011. Going off that, home dogs are 55-32 ATS before being road favorites since 2002. The Bears go to Arizona next week.

The reason this line shifted 4 points in the past week is because the Bears lost in Minnesota. People assume that was because of the Bears’ injuries (more on those later) and that they can’t possibly compete with the Packers this week because of that. Well, I’m not so shocked the Bears lost in Minnesota. The Vikings are 6-1 there, including a win over the 49ers. Besides, the Bears’ defense wasn’t why they lost. Their defense really only gave up one good scoring drive. The other two touchdowns the Vikings scored were either on a pick six or directly off a long touchdown return. Their offense was why they lost, not their defense. Their offense has generally been solid this season, so I see that as a bit of a fluke.

All this being said, these two teams are going in a different direction injury wise. Clay Matthews is expected to return for the Packers, as is TJ Lang. Jordy Nelson and Charles Woodson are still out, so they’re not 100% yet, but I’ve said they could be very dangerous if they can be healthy and Matthews’ return is huge, even if he’ll be limited in his snap count. He’s really their only good pass rusher and I wouldn’t have given them much chance to take advantage of the Bears’ weak offensive line without him.

The Bears, meanwhile, are missing not just Brian Urlacher and Tim Jennings, but they will also be without Henry Melton in this one. They didn’t seem to miss Urlacher and Jennings against Minnesota, but the Packers are a much better offense and Melton’s absence will also be huge. It’s also worth noting that the Bears have had a lot of issues beating teams of the Packers’ caliber this year. They are 1-5 ATS as dogs or favorites of less than 4, including 1-5 SU. In other situations, they are 5-1-1 ATS and 7-0 SU.

At the end of the day, I think the Bears are the right side, but I’m not that confident in it. However, I love fading heavy public leans, especially after a big line shift for no real reason. Besides, every year, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. In order for that to happen, either the Seahawks or Bears have to win out and the Packers and 49ers have to lose once. This is the game the Packers are most likely to lose and like Seahawks/49ers next week, it will kill birds with one stone, if that is to happen once again. It’s happened every year in at least the last decade.

Public lean: Green Bay (80% range)

Chicago Bears 24 Green Bay Packers 23 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: Chicago +3 (-110) 2 units

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Chicago Bears: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

Last week: 6 (-4)

Record: 8-5

Net points per drive: 0.40 (9th)

DVOA: 20.6% (6th)

Weighted DVOA: 21.1% (6th)

The Bears are still one of two candidates to go from out of the playoffs to a first round bye this season. Seattle is more likely, however, but I still think they can win at home against the Packers next week and win out against Arizona and Detroit, going 11-5 and losing the division on a tiebreaker. They’ll go to Washington in the first round in this scenario and I give the slight edge to the home team.

Studs

RB Matt Forte: Rushed for 85 yards (78 after contact) on 13 attempts, 4 broken tackles, caught 6 passes for 34 yards on 7 attempts, did not allow a pressure on 28 pass block snaps

LG Edwin Williams: Did not allow a pressure on 26 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 1 attempt

WR Brandon Marshall: Caught 10 passes for 160 yards and a touchdown on 17 attempts on 61 pass snaps, 1.4 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Charles Tillman: Allowed 1 catch for 8 yards on 3 attempts, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

SS Major Wright: Did not allow a catch on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 3 assists, 2 stops

RE Julius Peppers: 3 quarterback hurries on 18 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops

Duds

LG James Brown: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 36 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

RT Jonathan Scott: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback hurries on 62 pass block snaps

TE Kellen Davis: Caught 3 passes for 25 yards on 8 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 6.7 YAC per catch, 1 drop, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 6 pass block snaps

TE Kyle Adams: Caught 1 pass for 9 yards on 3 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 penalty

CB Kelvin Hayden: Allowed 4 catches for 33 yards on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

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Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bears, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-6) at Chicago Bears (8-4)

The Bears lost last week in upset fashion, but they still have a very good chance to be this year’s team that goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye because the 49ers also lost. If they win 1 more game over their final 4 games than the 49ers do, they will almost definitely be the NFC’s #2 seed this year and they are really the only candidate remaining to fulfill that trend, something that’s happened every year in at least the last decade.

The Seahawks are also a candidate, but they would have to win out, something that could be tough considering the impending suspensions of their cornerbacks. The Bears can easily win out as they are expected to be favorites in every game the rest of the way, including next week at home for Green Bay, which will be by far their toughest game the rest of the way. The 49ers, meanwhile, have to go to New England and Seattle, and will be dogs in at least one, maybe both of those games.

For this reason, I’m not betting against the Bears as small or medium sized favorites the rest of the way. They’re just 3 point favorites here and that definitely counts. Besides, that line is way too small anyway. The Bears rank 8th in net points per drive at 0.46, while the Vikings rank 21st at -0.18. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game), and push it 3 points in Minnesota’s direction to account for Minnesota’s home field, you get a real line of Chicago -4. That also checks out with DVOA, as these two teams rank 6th and 19th respectively.

That also doesn’t take into account that Jay Cutler is healthy for the Bears. That figure might be skewed by the 1 ½ games that Cutler missed. Excluding the Houston game, in which he got hurt before halftime, the Bears are actually 13-2 straight up in Jay Cutler’s last 15 starts with one of those losses being a very excusable one in Green Bay on a short week. In the last 2 seasons, when he starts, again excluding that Houston game, the Bears are 15-5 and score 27.5 points per game. When he doesn’t, including that Houston game, they are 1-7 and average just 12.3 points per game.

That isn’t all him. For instance, Matt Forte missed a few of those games as well and Caleb Hanie, who started 5 of those games in his absence, is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. Still, it shows he has a huge value to this team. He doesn’t put up flashy stats and his body language can be off putting, but the numbers don’t lie. They don’t have a ton of offensive talent. Brandon Marshall is great, but they don’t have another receiver and their offensive line is atrocious. Cutler has done a great job of leading drives in spite of this and he is actually very tough to sack.

That also doesn’t take into account that Harvin is hurt for the Vikings and that the Vikings have no momentum right now. Christian Ponder has been terrible lately, going 96 of 174 (55.2%) for 879 yards (5.1 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in his last 6 games. Having Harvin out certainly doesn’t help. The Vikings, while they rank 19th in DVOA, rank 23rd in weighted DVOA, which puts more weight on more recent games, and have really been playing like a bottom-5 team for the last 5-6 weeks.

The Bears have some injuries, as well, as Brian Urlacher and Tim Jennings expected to miss this game as well. Urlacher’s injury isn’t a huge deal because he’s overrated at this point in his career and Jennings’ won’t matter, at least in this game, because Christian Ponder is too limited to take advantage. Adrian Peterson will go bonkers on an overrated (22nd in YPC allowed) and Urlacher-less Bears’ run defense because that’s like his thing, but Christian Ponder will struggle against the Bears’ #3 pass defense, even without Jennings. They’ve still got plenty of talented defensive backs and good depth and Ponder just isn’t very good.

As we saw last week, Peterson alone can’t carry this team to victory. In fact, as good as Peterson is, this team is only 1-4 when Ponder completes fewer than 60% of his passes this season. Conversely, they’re actually 3-2 on the rare occasions when Peterson has been held to less than 5 YPC. They need a good game from Ponder here to pull off the home upset and I don’t think they’ll get it.

One trend is on Chicago’s side. Teams are 26-12 ATS off a home loss in overtime, exclude road dogs, since 2002. When the team is road favorites like the Bears are here, the ATS record is 14-5. Besides, while the Bears have admittedly had some issues with higher quality opponents, they’ve blown out almost every average or worse team they’ve faced this season. They beat Indianapolis by 20, St. Louis by 17, Dallas by 16, Jacksonville by 38, Detroit by 6 (they had them shutout for 59 ½ minutes, before the Lions got a late backdoor cover 13-7), Carolina by 1 (the one true exception), Tennessee by 31, and then these Vikings by 18 two weeks ago. This should be another blowout win for the Bears.

Public lean: Chicago (60% range)

Sharps lean: MIN 21 CHI 10

Final thoughts: The other sharps lean I’m totally disagreeing with. I can’t see Chicago losing this football game.

Chicago Bears 23 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against spread: Chicago -3 (-110) 3 units

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Chicago Bears: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

Last week: 6 (-2)

Record: 8-4

Net points per drive: 0.46 (8th)

DVOA: 22.2% (6th)

Weighted DVOA: 20.2% (6th)

Studs

RG Gabe Carimi: Did not allow a pressure on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

WR Brandon Marshall: Caught 10 passes for 165 yards on 12 attempts on 32 pass snaps, 3.2 YAC per catch, 1 drop

QB Jay Cutler: 17 of 26 for 232 yards and 2 touchdowns, 2 drops, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 117.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 14 of 30 drop backs (2 scrambles, 7 of 12, 1 touchdown, 1 drop, 1 hit as thrown, 1 throw away)

LE Israel Idonije: 1 quarterback hit and 6 quarterback hurries on 33 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

RE Shea McClellin: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 18 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

DT Henry Melton: 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops

K Robbie Gould: 4 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 72.5 yards per kickoff, 20.0 opponent’s average starting distance, 1/1 FG (46)

Duds

RT Jonathan Scott: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts

LT J’Marcus Webb: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 33 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

LG Edwin Williams: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

CB Kelvin Hayden: Allowed 3 catches for 61 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

SS Major Wright: Did not allow a catch on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 3 missed tackles, 1 stop

LE Corey Wootton: Did not record a pressure on 19 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

WR Eric Weems: 1 punt return for 0 yards, 1 fumble, 3 kickoff returns for 65 yards, caught 1 pass for 18 yards on 2 attempts on 19 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch

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Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bears, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Chicago Bears (8-3)

The Seahawks were 6-4 coming out of their bye last week and looked like they were in prime position to take one of the NFC’s two Wild Card spots. However, they lost on the road to the Dolphins and now all of a sudden, the sky is falling for this team. Everyone’s wondering what happened to them. I’ll tell you what happened to them. The same thing that happened to them when they went to Arizona, St. Louis, and Detroit and lost to an inferior team: they went on the road.

Since the start of the 2005 season, no team has a bigger home/road differential ATS wise than the Seattle Seahawks. They are 22-43 ATS on the road and 45-20 ATS at home. This year, that’s been especially true as they are 5-0 ATS at home (with 3 straight up wins as home dogs) and 1-5 ATS on the road (with 3 straight up losses as road favorites). At home, they outscore opponents by 6 points per game over that stretch and they get outscored by an average of 6 points per game on the road. The league average is 3 points at home and on the road, which is why 3 points are added either way when computing the line.

The only reason I didn’t take Miami for a big play last week, as I did when they were in Arizona and St. Louis and to a lesser extent, in Detroit, was because the Seahawks were coming off a bye and as road favorites, they had a trend that had hit 75% of the time since 2002 on their side. I still took Miami for a small play and even that powerful trend couldn’t combat the Seahawks’ road woes.

The Seahawks are on the road here, but in different circumstances. They are now road dogs after losing on the road. They are 4-3 ATS in this spot since 2005, which isn’t strong, but it’s definitely worth noting and it makes sense as teams generally tend to cover as road dogs off a road loss, going 138-79 ATS since 2005 in that spot. It’s not a reason why the Seahawks will cover, but it doesn’t make them an automatic fade here on the road.

It is worth noting that the Seahawks already failed to cover once this season in a very similar spot, losing in Detroit on the road as dogs after losing the week prior in San Francisco. They were 2.5 point dogs in that situation and they are 3.5 point dogs here, which doesn’t make a ton of sense. Chicago is much better than 1 point better than the Lions.

Using the net points per drive method to compute line value, we get a real line of Chicago -5.5 as Chicago ranks 7th in net points per drive and Seattle ranks 11th. However, we do need to look at DVOA to make sure there are no discrepancies, as net yards per drive doesn’t take into account everything that DVOA (which is net yards per drive based) does. In DVOA, Seattle actually ranks 4th in regular and weighted, while Chicago ranks 5th in both, which does make this line make more sense, that is until you remember how horrible Seattle generally is on the road, especially this year, and more importantly how much better the Bears are with Jay Cutler healthy.

Jay Cutler might be the most undervalued player in the NFL. Excluding the Houston game, in which he got hurt before halftime, the Bears are actually 13-1 straight up in Jay Cutler’s last 14 starts with that one loss being a very excusable one in Green Bay on a short week. In the last 2 seasons, when he starts, again excluding that Houston game, the Bears are 15-4 and score 28.0 points per game. When he doesn’t, including that Houston game, they are 1-7 and average just 12.3 points per game.

That isn’t all him. For instance, Matt Forte missed a few of those games as well and Caleb Hanie, who started 5 of those games in his absence, is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. Still, it shows he has a huge value to this team. He doesn’t put up flashy stats and his body language can be off putting, but the numbers don’t lie. They don’t have a ton of offensive talent. Brandon Marshall is great, but they don’t have another receiver and their offensive line is atrocious. Cutler has done a great job of leading drives in spite of this and he is actually very tough to sack. Before Cutler got hurt, this team led the NFL in points differential and last week when he returned healthy, they blew out a solid Vikings team by 18.

It’s true they have yet to beat a truly good team this year, but they’ve only had one chance, that Green Bay game, with Cutler healthy for the full game. They’ve blown out several bad teams, leading the league with 6 double digit wins. They beat Indianapolis, Detroit, and Minnesota, solid teams, in impressive fashion and they should be able to beat the Seahawks here. There are some reasons to take Seattle and the 3.5 points, but I think Chicago wins straight up once again here and as long as this line is 4 or less, I have a hard time taking the Seahawks on the road against Cutler and the Bears.

Public action: Chicago (60% range)

Sharps lean: SEA 18 CHI 15

Final update: No change.

Chicago Bears 24 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against spread: Chicago -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Chicago Bears: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

Last week: 4 (-1)

Record: 8-3

Net points per drive: 0.53 (7th)

DVOA: 24.9% (5th)

Weighted DVOA: 25.1% (5th)

Tier 1: Contenders

Chicago

Studs

QB Jay Cutler: 23 of 31 for 188 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, 2 batted passes, 4 drops, 106.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 15 of 34 drop backs (1 sack, 2 scrambles, 9 of 12, 1 touchdown, 1 drop)

CB Kelvin Hayden: Allowed 2 catches for 15 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

SS Major Wright: Allowed 1 catch for 13 yards on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes

LE Israel Idonije: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 stop

DT Henry Melton: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 penalty

Duds

RB Matt Forte: Rushed for 42 yards (20 after contact) on 14 attempts, 1 fumble, caught 2 passes for 4 yards on 2 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 9 pass block snaps

TE Kellen Davis: Caught 1 pass for 15 yards on 4 attempts on 27 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 7 pass block snaps

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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bears, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-4) at Chicago Bears (7-3)

Jay Cutler might be the most undervalued player in the NFL. In the last 2 seasons, when he starts, the Bears are 14-5 and score 26.8 points per game. When he doesn’t, they are 1-6 and average just 13.1 points per game. That isn’t all him. For instance, Matt Forte missed a few of those games as well and Caleb Hanie, who started 5 of those games in his absence, is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.

Still, it shows he has a huge value to this team. He doesn’t put up flashy stats and his body language can be off putting, but the numbers don’t lie. They don’t have a ton of offensive talent. Brandon Marshall is great, but they don’t have another receiver and their offensive line is atrocious. Cutler has done a great job of leading drives in spite of this and he is actually very tough to sack.

I thought they’d survive without him against the 49ers because Jason Campbell is much better than Hanie and because Forte was healthy and because they added Brandon Marshall and because it was a one game absence rather than a morale crushing season ending injury and because the defense was allowing a touchdown fewer per game than last season, but I was totally wrong. Jason Campbell, believe it or not, is actually an experienced backup with some success in the NFL and he looked as bad as Hanie did last year on this offense.

Excluding the Houston game in which he got hurt before halftime, Cutler is now 12-1 in his last 13 starts, with the one loss coming on short rest on the road in Green Bay way back in week 2, which is very excusable. Before Cutler got hurt, this team led the NFL in points differential. One team every year goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye and the Bears are by far the most likely team to do so. They’ll have to win out, but with Cutler healthy, I don’t doubt that’s possible. Their biggest test the rest of the way is home for Green Bay, in a huge revenge game that could be the difference between them being the 2nd seed and the 5th seed in the NFC.

Given how good they were before Cutler got hurt, I find it kind of strange that people are doubting them. I don’t think you can really hold their last 2 games against them too much. It’s a shame because Houston and San Francisco would have provided huge benchmark games for them if he was healthy, but now I don’t think we learned a ton about them in the past 2 weeks.

However, people seem to think we have. This line was Chicago -6.5 a week ago and now it’s expected to open at -4.5, according the LV Hilton line. Using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, this line should be Chicago -7 and using the yards per play differential method, this line should be Chicago -1.5, which averages out right around -4.5, but those numbers also take into account 1 ½ games that the Bears played without Cutler and a fluky loss in Green Bay. We’re getting line value with them. I think the Bears are an underrated bunch right now.

Those lines also fail to take into account that Percy Harvin will be out for the Vikings. Harvin missed their game against Detroit before the bye and they were still able to win and put up yards through the air and points, but that was against Detroit’s crappy secondary. Christian Ponder is still a young and inconsistent quarterback who could really, really struggle against the Bears’ elite secondary missing really his only weapon in the passing game. This line should really be around the -6.5 it was at last week.

Normally teams struggle after a Monday Night blowout loss. Teams are 12-22 ATS since 2002 off a MNF loss of 21 or more, excluding teams coming off a bye. However, the Bears’ blowout loss was a little fluky because they were missing such a big part of their team and now I think they’re actually underrated because of how poorly they’ve played in the past 2 weeks.

With Cutler back, I like them to get a statement win against the Harvin-less Vikings and win by double digits for the league leading 6th time this season (Houston, New England, and Denver all entered this week at 5, New England went up to 6 and Denver has yet to play). Fun fact: Since 1989, 16 teams have started 7-1 or better and then lost 2 straight, including now these Bears. Excluding meaningless week 17 games, teams are 10-2 ATS after losing 2 straight, including 9-1 ATS as favorites. It’s a small play on the Bears. If the line opens as 4 or less (unlikely) it’s 3 units, anything from 4 to 5.5 is 2, and anything from 6 up is one unit.

Public lean: ?

Sharps lean: MIN 5 CHI 1

Final update: This is unsurprisingly tied for the least picked game of the week on LV Hilton. Why would anyone want to make a pick on this game without knowing if Cutler would start (LV Hilton picks are due Saturday Morning)?

Final update part 2: This line opened at -6 Sunday Morning so there’s pretty much been no line movement or overreaction from last week, which costs us all line value. I still think the Bears bounce back in a big way, but it’s 1 unit.

Chicago Bears 27 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against spread: Chicago -6 (-110) 1 unit

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Chicago Bears: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

Last week: 2 (-2)

Record: 7-3

I think we can all agree Jay Cutler is pretty valuable. He doesn’t put up huge numbers, but his ability to succeed in spite of a horrific offensive line and avoid sacks is so valuable to this team.  Jason Campbell isn’t a terrible backup. He’s had decent success as a starter in this league, but this offensive line made him look horrific. The Monday Night Football guys said that start was an audition for him for a potential starting job in 2013. I think the only one who could possibly have come away impressed is Rex Ryan. There’s a reason Mike Tice said this after their loss to the 49ers, when asked about if Cutler would return this week, “God, I hope so…nothing against Jason.”

Cutler is now 12-1 in his last 13 starts (excluding the Houston game in which he left at halftime). He’s such an underrated player. Every year, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. The Bears are by far the most likely to do so, but they took a hit with their past 2 losses without Cutler. They basically need to win out to do so, but Cutler should be back this week, so it should be possible. The biggest test will be a home game against Green Bay.

Studs

None

Duds

QB Jason Campbell: 14 of 22 for 107 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, 60.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 13 of 29 drop backs (6 sacks, 1 scramble, 4 of 6, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions)

RB Matt Forte: Rushed for 63 yards (25 after contact) on 21 attempts, 1 broken tackle, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 5 pass block snaps, caught 3 passes for 4 yards on 4 attempts

LT J’Marcus Webb: Allowed 3 sacks and 5 quarterback hurries on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 2 attempts

LG Chilo Rachal: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 6 yards on 5 attempts

RT Gabe Carimi: Allowed 3 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 3 attempts

WR Earl Bennett: Caught 1 pass for 6 yards on 2 attempts on 25 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

SS Major Wright: Allowed 4 catches for 54 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

DT Henry Melton: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, 49ers, Bears

Chicago Bears (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2)

I can’t make a final pick on this one because there are too many unknowns with injuries and with the line in general (it’s not yet posted). However, I can do a reasonable preview based on what we do know. Here’s what we know. We know Jay Cutler has been ruled out and will not play for the Bears. Instead, Jason Campbell will start in his absence. We know Alex Smith has been cleared to practice and is expected to be cleared to play before Monday Night so he’s expected to start for the 49ers.

We know if all things were normal, this line would be around San Francisco -5 because that’s what it was at last week and both teams have had disappointing games since. Given all that, assuming Cutler doesn’t play, Smith plays, and the line moves the appropriate amount to compensate, I like the Bears. I would have taken them in normal circumstances at -5. I can’t understand Chicago, who leads the league in points differential, being more than 3 point road dogs against anyone while fully healthy. Even with Cutler out, this should be a close game and we can expect the line to be somewhere around -7 at least, so the points are very tempting.

Campbell is a decent quarterback and one of the better backups in the league. He led the Raiders to an 11-7 record in games he played over a 2 year stretch. In the games he missed, the Raiders went 5-9, even though Carson Palmer made 9 of those starts. This year, they are 3-6 without him and with Palmer. He didn’t look great against Houston, but then again neither did Cutler. Houston has an incredible defense. San Francisco does too, so he’s hardly going to put up big points, but he will at least have a week of starters reps under his belt and he won’t need to put up big points to cover.

The Bears run the ball, play great defense, and have great special teams and even with Alex Smith healthy, the 49ers won’t be doing a whole lot of scoring either. Smith is obviously a better quarterback than Campbell, but it’s not such a lopsided comparison that the 49ers warrant being possibly touchdown favorites or more in a game where everything else seems really even. Good teams tend to cover without their starting quarterback, especially in their first game without him because they’re overlooked, undervalued, and angry. The Bears were unable to do that last year, going 1-5 without Cutler, but this year will be different for several reasons.

One, when Cutler went down last year, it was known almost immediately to be season ending. The Bears pretty much quit after he went down. This time, he’ll probably only miss this game, so they will have more of a “holding down the fort for Cutler” mentality rather than “Cutler’s out, we’re fucked” mentality. Two, Jason Campbell is so much more competent than Caleb Hanie and eventually Josh McCown, the two starting quarterbacks who combined to make those 6 starts last year. Three, their supporting cast is better. They’ve added Brandon Marshall. They have returned Matt Forte (remember, he got hurt at the same time Cutler did last year). They’re also allowing about a touchdown less per game defensively than last year.

Both teams are in good spots this week after disappointing performances last week. Lovie Smith, since taking over as Bears’ Head Coach, is 6-3 ATS as dogs before being favorites. Dogs before being favorites are 95-50 ATS since 2011 and Chicago hosts Minnesota next week, a game they’ll be favored in even if Cutler can’t return for that one.

The 49ers, meanwhile, had a tie game last week, which makes things a little tougher. However, teams are 13-6 ATS off of overtime as double digit favorites, regardless of the outcome. Almost losing, or in the 49ers’ case, not winning, seems to send the same sort of wake up call to a team as actually losing. Further illustrating that, teams are 32-24 ATS off a win of 3 or fewer as double digit favorites and 27-18 ATS off a loss as double digit favorites.

Lose or barely win, it’s a wakeup call. Jim Harbaugh, like all great coaches, is excellent off a loss, going 5-1 ATS. In fact, off a mere ATS loss, he’s 6-1 ATS. It is worth noting that teams are 3-7 ATS off a tie, though it is a small sample size. The 49ers may be tired after playing 75 minutes last week, but this one is on Monday Night, so maybe not.

At the end of the day though, I like the Bears for a significant play as long as Cutler doesn’t play and this line is 6 or higher (6 is a key number). Even without Cutler, the Bears should be able to keep this close. They have a great supporting cast and will give 110% to hold down the fort in Cutler’s absence. I also think they have a good chance to win if history is any indication.

Every year, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. Chicago is the only one who is even close right now and they pretty much need this win to do so given that Atlanta is 8-1 and has a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. In a game that could decide the #2 seed in the NFC, I like the Bears to win, but I’m more confident they’ll cover, as long as the spread is where I think it will be. Minus 6-7 will be 3 units and anything above 7 will be 4 or 5 units. I’ll post a final pick once the line is posted.

Public lean: Chicago (50% range)

Sharps lean: SF 15 CHI 4

Final update: The sharps like San Francisco, but keep in mind, the LV Hilton line is -4. It’s at -7 in the few online sportsbooks its up at. I’ll make this pick assuming -7 just to get it out of the way and make any changes tonight if I need to. It’s going to be 3 units on the Bears. 7 is way too many points. The Bears will play 110% to compensate for Cutler and make this a grind it out game. I have a tough time seeing either team win by more than 7 barring several defensive/special teams touchdowns.

Final update Part 2: Alex Smith was surprising ruled out Monday Morning and even though this line opened on Sunday at -7 expecting Smith to play, it plummeted down to -3.5 today. I’m very glad I was able to get Chicago +7 now, but if you couldn’t, I still like Chicago +3.5, but only for 2 units. There’s no way Smith is worth 3.5 points. I obviously still like the money line, even though it’s smaller now.

Chicago Bears 16 San Francisco 49ers 13 Upset Pick +240

Pick against spread: Chicago +7 (-110) 3 units

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Chicago Bears: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

Last week: 1 (-1)

Record: 7-2

It’s a shame Cutler had to get hurt. I was looking at the Houston and San Francisco games as two games that would valid a Chicago team that had been playing incredible up until that point. With Cutler missing most of the Houston game and probably all of the San Francisco game, we still don’t have a great read on this team. I still say I wouldn’t want to face them in the playoffs more than any NFC team, but their chances at a 1st round bye took a hit when Cutler got hurt.

Still, every year one team goes from out of the playoffs to the first round bye, so you can’t rule Chicago out (only other candidate is Indianapolis really). The key game for them is going to be against Green Bay. As long as Cutler is healthy, that’s a major bench mark as they attempt to prove their week 2 loss to the Packers was a Thursday Night fluke. I still say we’ll see Houston/Chicago again this year (perhaps on a Sunday in February in New Orleans).

Studs

LT J’Marcus Webb: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 3 attempts

C Roberto Garza: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 3 attempts

CB Tim Jennings: Allowed 1 catch for 23 yards on 4 attempts, 2 interceptions, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes

CB Charles Tillman: Allowed 5 catches for 38 yards on 10 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 7 solo tackles, 2 stops

RE Julius Peppers: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 24 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 4 stops

LE Israel Idonije: 2 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RB Matt Forte: Rushed for 39 yards (26 after contact) on 16 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 2 passes for -3 yards on 5 attempts, 1 drop

RT Gabe Carimi: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 40 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 25 yards on 4 attempts

TE Kellen Davis: Caught 1 pass for 6 yards on 5 attempts on 21 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 1 interception when thrown to

WR Devin Hester: Caught 2 passes for 4 yards on 4 attempts on 24 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch

WR Earl Bennett: Caught 1 pass for 9 yards on 1 attempt on 36 pass snaps, 8.0 YAC per catch

ROLB Nick Roach: 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 1 catch for 1 yard on 1 attempt

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