Bears

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bears, Texans

Houston Texans (7-1) at Chicago Bears (7-1)

I’ve called Chicago the best team in the NFL on several occasions. It’s close, but they are the team I’d least want to play right now. Atlanta may be undefeated, but they’ve had a very easy schedule and aren’t blowing guys out like the Bears are, winning 5 of 8 by a touchdown or less, including games that should have been blowouts like home for Carolina, Oakland, and Dallas.

Chicago hasn’t had the toughest schedule either, but they are blowing teams out. Of their 7 wins, 5 have come by 10 or more (actually all 5 came by 16 or more). Of the two that didn’t, the outcome of only one was ever in down. They held a shutout against Detroit until 30 seconds left in the game when the Lions got a garbage time touchdown to make it 13-7 and a single digit win, but the outcome was never really in doubt. The Falcons have had at least 4 games where that was the case (Carolina, Dallas, Washington, and Oakland all could have ended in losses for Atlanta, I don’t really count Denver, as Atlanta established a big early lead).

Jay Cutler is now 12-1 in his last 13 games, which would be 12 in a row if you exclude their Thursday Night loss in Green Bay. Obviously, you can’t ignore that game, but it was a while ago, it was on short rest, and it was on the road against a tough opponent, so I don’t put much stock into it. They run the ball well. They play incredible defense, even though you can’t expect them to continue to score defensively at this rate the rest of the way because no one ever has.

However, with guys like Julius Peppers, Henry Melton, Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher, Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, and Major Wright, they have so many talented defensive players. They’re 2nd in the league in points per game allowed. Offensively, they can run the ball and Jay Cutler is playing well. The Cutler/Marshall combination is deadly. The only issue is the offensive line, but Jay Cutler is historically so hard to sack, so they should be fine.

Of course, with two games against Houston and San Francisco on schedule in the next 2 weeks for the Bears, we’ll definitely have an answer of whether or not this is the Super Bowl favorite pretty soon. In a way, Houston and Chicago have had similar seasons. Both haven’t had the toughest schedule, but both are blowing out the teams they’ve faced. Both have points differentials above +100 (Houston +100, Chicago +113).

Both are defensive oriented teams that can run the ball and both have quarterbacks that may not be on that elite level, but can get it done. They’re not in the Alex Smith game manager category, but they’re not Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. Both teams have lost to the Packers, though the Bears’ loss to the Packers, as I mentioned earlier, is more excusable. The Texans played them more recently, at home, and lost by more, losing by 18 rather than 13.

The Texans do rank higher in yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential, ranking 5th and 2nd respectively, while Chicago ranks 13th and 4th respectively. As you can imagine, that suggests we are getting a little bit of line value with the Texans. The rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us Chicago -2 and yards per play differential gives us Houston -1 and when you average those out, you get a little bit less than the -1 in favor of Chicago this line currently is at.

That being said, there are 2 things to keep in mind with those numbers. The first is that those numbers treat every game equally. If not for that fluky loss to the Packers week 2, the Bears would rank better than the Texans in at least one of those statistics. Again, I’m not saying to ignore that game completely, but given the circumstances of the game and everything that’s happened since, I don’t think we should put too much stock into that.

The second is that, while neither has had a tough schedule, Chicago does come from the tougher conference. The NFC is 23-13 against the AFC this year. These two teams might be the best two teams in the NFL and they’re almost definitely in the top-3 right now, but I think Chicago is a little bit better right now and that this line should be at least -3 (3 points for home field). At -1, I think we’re getting line value with the Bears.

There aren’t a lot of relevant trends in play here. The Texans are dogs before being favorites, a situation teams are 89-50 ATS in since 2011, including 26-16 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2008 (they host Jacksonville next week). However, when that next game is divisional, like it is for Houston, that record slips to 10-10 ATS since 2002, and 23-27 ATS since 1989. Given, that I’m going to stick with my claim that the Bears are the NFL’s best, take the superior home favorite of less than a field goal, and the Bears to win this game for a significant play.

Public lean: Houston (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Chicago covers)

Sharps lean: HOU 20 CHI 4

Final update: I’m going to disagree with the sharps here, something I’ll do on several occasions this week. I think Chicago is the better team.

Chicago Bears 23 Houston Texans 17

Pick against spread: Chicago -1 (-110) 3 units

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Chicago Bears: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

Last week: 3 (+2)

Record: 7-1

Back to this. I really broke my own rule by overreacting to the Bears’ near lose to the lowly Panthers and dropping them down even though I’ve never been sold on Atlanta. The Bears’ huge blowout win helped me see the light. Jay Cutler is now 12-1 in his last 13 games, which would be 12 in a row if you exclude their Thursday Night loss in Green Bay. Obviously, you can’t ignore that game, but it was a while ago, it was on short rest, and it was on the road against a tough opponent, so I don’t put much stock into it.

They run the ball well. They play incredible defense, even though you can’t expect them to continue to score defensively at this rate the rest of the way because no one ever has. With guys like Julius Peppers, Henry Melton, Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher, Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, and Major Wright, they have so many talented defensive players. Offensively, they can run the ball, Jay Cutler is playing well. The only issue is the offensive line, but Jay Cutler is so hard to sack. I think they’ll continue to be fine. However, with two games against Houston and San Francisco in the next 2 weeks, we’ll get an answer real soon.

Studs

RB Matt Forte: Rushed for 103 yards (61 yards after contact) and a touchdown on 12 carries, 2 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 45 yards on 2 attempts

C Roberto Garza: Didn’t allow a pressure on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 27 yards on 6 attempts

RG Lance Louis: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 3 attempts

WR Brandon Marshall: Caught 9 passes for 122 yards on 9 attempts, 2.3 YAC per catch, 3 drops

QB Jay Cutler: 19 of 26 for 229 yards and 3 touchdowns, 2 throw aways, 1 batted pass, 114.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 13 of 30 drop backs (3 sacks, 1 scramble, 4 of 9, 2 touchdowns, 2 throw away)

CB Charles Tillman: Allowed 8 catches for 71 yards on 10 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 9 solo tackles, 3 stops

MLB Brian Urlacher: Allowed 2 catches for 26 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception, 7 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes

K Robbie Gould: 10 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 70.4 yards per kickoff, 18.7 opponent’s average starting position, 3/3 FG (22, 25, 40)

Duds

TE Kellen Davis: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 8 pass block snaps, didn’t catch a pass on 24 pass snaps

RT Gabe Carimi: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

LT J’Marcus Webb: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 32 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for -1 yards on 3 attempts

RE Julius Peppers: Did not record a pressure on 23 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bears, Titans

Chicago Bears (6-1) at Tennessee Titans (3-5)

This was the toughest game of the week for me. At first glance, this looked like a trap line which is normally a good thing to bet against when sportsbetting online. There is heavy public action on Chicago and yet the line is falling (it opened at -5 and -4.5 and now it’s at -4 and -3.5). However, normally I like to find a trend or a few in the other team’s favor with potential trap lines and I had trouble finding one for Tennessee.

Tennessee is coming off a home overtime loss. Teams are 81-62 ATS in this spot since 1989. However, teams off a home overtime loss as favorites are just 44-38 ATS since 1989, which isn’t as strong. In fact, as dogs off a home overtime loss as favorites, teams are just 20-24 ATS. As home dogs, they are 3-0 ATS, which isn’t a very big sample size at all. There may be something there that says to take Tennessee, but it isn’t strong.

Often times what I like to do when I can’t find a trend for a team coming off an overtime game of any kind is I like to substitute overtime for just close games in general, meaning games decided by a touchdown or less. That didn’t help me much. Teams are 281-246 ATS off a home loss of 7 or fewer since 2002. Going down to 2008, that trend is 118-111 ATS. Off a close home loss as favorites, teams are 71-61 ATS and as dogs off a close home loss as favorites, teams are 41-30 ATS. Off a divisional close home loss as favorites, teams are 11-12 ATS as dogs the following week, including 28-34 ATS since 2002. As home dogs, that trend is 5-3 ATS and when we go back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, the trend is just 12-14 ATS. Again, there may be something there, but it isn’t strong.

The only “strong” trend in found in Tennessee’s favor is that road favorites are just 5-13 ATS since 1989 off back to back home wins as favorites in which they failed to cover, which is the case for Chicago. Again, it’s a very small sample. To get a bigger sample size, I looked at teams in general coming off back to back home wins as favorites in which they failed to cover and teams are 15-22 ATS. When I expanded to teams coming off back to back wins in general in which they didn’t cover, that trend is 44-48 ATS. Once again, there may be something there, but it’s not strong.

Furthermore, we aren’t getting line value with the Titans. Using the traditional yards per play differential method, this line should be Chicago -1.5 because Chicago is actually a very average team in yards per play differential, so using just that method, it does appear we have line value with the Titans. A lot of sharps do use that method, which is why sharps may be on the Titans this week, but I don’t use just that method.

I created another statistic called rate of sustaining drives differential, which compares how often on a given set of downs you convert for a 1st down or a score, as opposed to how often your opponent does so. This statistic underrates teams that get a lot of big plays and/or don’t allow a lot of big plays, but those are the exact same teams yards per play differential underrates. Big plays are great, but you need to be able to stay on the field offensively or get off the field defensively. Meanwhile, sustaining drives is great and limiting your opponent’s ability to do so is great, but if your offense has no explosion and you’re allowing a lot of big plays, that’s not good. I think these statistics work really well in tandem.

Using that method, we see that Chicago should actually be -8.5. I’m not saying either one is right, but it’s smart to use both to find teams that one statistic under or overrates. In this case, there appears to be no line value either way and if there is, it’s actually in favor of Chicago, because when you average out these two numbers, you get -5.

On top of that, Tennessee has the league’s worst points differential at -95, excluding Kansas City, who surpassed them with their showing on Thursday Night Football. That’s because of their horrific defense. They rank 27th against the pass, 26th against the run, allow 32.1 points per game, 2nd worst in the league, and just made Ryan Fitzpatrick look like a franchise quarterback 2 weeks ago. Going back to rate of sustaining drives, they’re one of 2 teams with an opponent’s rate of sustaining drives higher than 80% as they sit at 84.4%, meaning on any given set of downs, they allow a first down or a score 84.4% of the time. That’s worst in the league. The Saints are next worst at 82.9%. They’re horrendous. Meanwhile, Chicago is one of the top teams in the league.

The Titans also come from an inferior conference (the NFC is 20-12 against the AFC) and they will once again be missing stud left tackle Michael Roos. Replacement Mike Otto was surprisingly good in his first start last week, but there’s no guarantee that will continue, especially since he’ll be matched up with Julius Peppers this week. I can’t take Chicago because of the trap line potential, but it’s a very small play on Tennessee. If I did 0-unit picks, this would be one of them.

Public lean: Chicago (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Sharps lean: CHI 10 TEN 8

Final update: One injury update: Michael Roos will play. I still don’t have a good feel for this game though and neither do the sharps apparently. I’d pick Tennessee if I had to, but it’d be ranked dead last in any confidence pools.

Chicago Bears 23 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against spread: Tennessee +4 (-110) 1 unit

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Chicago Bears: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

Last week: 1 (-2)

Record: 6-1

I’m moving the Bears out of the #1 spot barely this week because I wasn’t impressed with their near home loss to the Panthers and because the Falcons looked good against the Eagles. However, the Falcons still haven’t really played anyone that’s any good and they almost lost at home to the Raiders. The Bears’ one loss was on Thursday Night and it’s tough to put a lot of stock into a fluky bad performance on short rest. Excluding that loss, Jay Cutler has won 11 straight games.

Studs

QB Jay Cutler: 19 of 28 for 186 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, 4 dropped passes, 102.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 13 of 35 drop backs (6 sacks, 1 scramble, 4 of 6)

DT Henry Melton: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, 6 solo tackles, 5 stops

DT Nate Collins: 2 quarterback hurries on 19 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

CB Charles Tillman: Allowed 1 catch for 8 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

Duds

LT J’Marcus Webb: Allowed 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

RT Gabe Carimi: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

C Roberto Garza: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 9 yards on 5 attempts

WR Devin Hester: Caught 1 pass for 5 yards on 2 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

DT Stephen Paea: 1 quarterback hurry on 23 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Nick Roach: 1 solo tackle, allowed 1 catch for 10 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Brian Urlacher: Allowed 2 catches for 69 yards on 3 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 batted pass

ROLB Lance Briggs: 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 4 catches for 43 yards on 5 attempts

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Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bears, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (1-5) at Chicago Bears (5-1)

I normally hate laying more than a touchdown, but I like the Bears this week for several reasons. The first reason is simply that I think they’re the best team in the league in this wide open NFL (the undefeated Falcons have played a cupcake schedule and won their last 3 by a combined 12). The Bears sit at 5-1 and their only loss was in Green Bay on Thursday Night. I’m not saying don’t count that game, but you shouldn’t put too much stock into a team playing poorly on the road against a good team in short rest when they’ve played very well the rest of the time, especially when they lost running back Matt Forte early in the game.

Other than that, they’re 5-0 on the season and with the exception of last week’s game against the Lions, they’ve won all 5 games by 16 or more. Even last week’s 13-7 win over the Lions was way more lopsided than the final score indicated as they held a shutout and a 13 point lead with about 30 seconds to go before Detroit got a late garbage time touchdown.

With that exception of back door cover and the Green Bay game, they’ve covered every game this season and they would have covered this 7.5 point spread on every game as well. And they’re not playing bad teams either, with the exception of Jacksonville. St. Louis and Indianapolis look like more impressive blowouts now than when they happened. Dallas is a playoff contender and they lost by 16 at home  (24 until a garbage time score). Detroit isn’t terrible. Carolina is probably the 2nd worst team they’ve played this year.

Dating back to last year, Jay Cutler is actually 10-1 in his last 11, with that one loss being the Green Bay loss, further proof of how fluky that loss was. Those 5 straight wins he had last season before getting hurt came by margins of 29, 6, 6, 24, and 11 and the Bears covered in all 5. Dating back to 2010, Jay Cutler is 23-10 straight up over the last 2 and a half years, including playoffs. This year, they’re even better because of the addition of Brandon Marshall.

Because the Bears are the best team in the league, in my opinion, I feel we’re getting line value with them and the usual metrics of measuring “real” line agree, which is the 2nd reason I like the Bears this week. The yards per play method says this line should be only -3 in favor of Chicago because these two teams actually have the same yards per play differential (3 points for home field advantage). This isn’t because Chicago is bad in that statistic. In fact, they rank tied for 7th. However, Carolina is particularly good in that statistic.

Carolina is one of the reasons I decided to create a complimentary statistic known as rate of sustaining drives to use along with yards per play to determine “real” line. Yards per play overrates teams that get a lot of big plays, but struggle to stay on the field or don’t allow a lot of big plays, but struggle to get off the field defensively. Those are the exact same teams rate of sustaining drives underrates because what rate of sustaining drives cares about is how often you convert a given set of downs for a first down or a score in comparison to how often your defense allows the opponent to do so. Because of this, they work in tandem well together.

Sure enough, Carolina is really bad in this statistic, ranking 31st, while Chicago is around where they are in yards per play differential, ranking 4th. The “real” line calculated using this metric says Chicago should be -17. Again, neither one of these metrics alone is right, especially with that kind of difference, but we can use them together to get a much better estimate of “real” line. In this case, Chicago should be around -10 and that’s counting all of Chicago’s games equally, which I don’t think is the case because I feel the Green Bay game was fluky. We’re getting line value with the Bears.

The 3rd reason is all of Carolina’s injuries. Already a struggling team, Carolina will be without Ryan Kalil, Jon Beason, and Chris Gamble for this game and likely without all 3 for the season. That’s a huge loss. Ryan Kalil is not their best offensive lineman because of left tackle Jordan Gross, but he’s easily a top-3 center in the league. Beason is not the player he was 2 years ago, but his absence still hurts because it means up and down rookie Luke Kuechly will have to become an every down player and Thomas Davis will have to become a starter. Davis has had 3 torn ACLs as a pro, so it’s unclear if his knees can handle that. Meanwhile, Gamble is not only their best defensive back, but he’s also their only good defensive back and, when healthy, one of the better and more underrated cornerbacks in the league.

The 4th reason is that Carolina could be really flat this week. They had very high hopes for this season, only to start 1-4. They put everything into last week against the Cowboys off a bye and still lost a close one at home. Now their season is effectively over. Cam Newton’s body language looked really bad in his press conference and GM Marty Hurney has been fired. They’re missing key players. This game means nothing to them anymore and they could be really flat and just get blown out by a very good Chicago team that seems to be blowing out everyone.

The 5th reason is the only relevant trend I could find, but the Bears should be in a good spot off a close win over the Lions on Monday Night. Teams are 22-13 ATS off a divisional win of a touchdown or less on Monday Night, excluding teams coming off a bye. You might say, well that game wasn’t as close as the final score would suggest. That is true, but teams are 10-6 ATS off a Monday Night shutout, 5-2 ATS off a divisional Monday Night shutout. Favorites off a divisional shutout in general are 34-22 ATS.

The 6th and final reason is something I’ve referenced in most of my picks. I expect the disparity between favorites and dogs to close up. Dogs are 63-39 ATS this year. Neither dogs nor favorites have gone more than 10 games above .500 in a given year in at least the last decade. Because of that, any time you can take a favorite without betting on a heavy public lean (there’s a slight public lean on Chicago right now), you have to do it unless there’s a good reason not to. These games work double for the odds makers. They make them money (they always make money on slight leans because of the juice) and they help the disparity close so the public doesn’t start locking in on dogs. I like Chicago for a small play.

Public lean: Chicago (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

Sharps lean: CAR 21 CHI 0

Final update: This is weird. I’m dropping a unit down.

Chicago Bears 31 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against spread: Chicago -7.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Chicago Bears: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

I’m keeping Chicago as my #1 team for all the reasons I listed last week. With the exception of the Thursday Night loss to Green Bay, the Bears have looked great this season, 4 of 5 games by 16 or more. While you can’t completely ignore what happened on Thursday Night Football, it’s unreasonable to put too much stock into one game when a team has had 3 days to prepare on the road.

In their other 4 games, with the exception of Jacksonville, who they destroyed in Jacksonville in a potential trap game, they’ve played good opponents. Dallas should be a playoff contender right until the very end. They beat them by 16 in Dallas. Blowout wins over Indianapolis and St. Louis didn’t look impressive at the time, but now they do. They also beat Detroit in a game that was a lot more lopsided than the 13-7 final score. Jay Cutler is now 10-1 in his last 11 games, including 22-10 dating back to 2010, including the 2 postseason games that year. They certainly didn’t do anything to lose this spot last week in a still wide open league.

Studs

LT J’Marcus Webb: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 3 attempts

CB Charles Tillman: Allowed 7 catches for 50 yards on 12 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 7 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 penalty

ROLB Lance Briggs: Allowed 1 catch for 2 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 3 assists

SS Major Wright: Did not allow a catch on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes

DT Henry Melton: 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 37 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

Studs

C Roberto Garza: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 42 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

RG Lance Louis: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 42 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 4 yards on 4 attempts

WR Devin Hester: Caught 3 passes for 38 yards on 6 attempts on 41 pass snaps, 11.3 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 punt return for 5 yards

TE Kellen Davis: Caught 1 pass for 3 yards on 2 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

DT Amobi Okoye: Did not record a pressure on 22 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bears, Lions

Detroit Lions (2-3) at Chicago Bears (4-1)

This week, I put the Bears 1st in my Power Rankings. With the exception of the Thursday Night loss to Green Bay, the Bears have looked great this season, winning every game by 16 or more and only surrendering 7 sacks in 4 games. While you can’t completely ignore what happened on Thursday Night Football, it’s unreasonable to put too much stock into one game when a team has had 3 days to prepare on the road.

In their other 4 games, with the exception of Jacksonville, who they destroyed in Jacksonville in a potential trap game, they’ve played good opponents. Dallas should be a playoff contender right until the very end. They beat them by 16 in Dallas. Blowout wins over Indianapolis and St. Louis didn’t look impressive at the time, but now they do. Jay Cutler is now 9-1 in his last 10 games, including 22-10 dating back to 2010, including the 2 postseason games that year. Every year, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. At the very least, I think the Bears will do that. At most, they might just be the best team in the league, though there’s still a lot left uncertain.

The yards per play method of computing line value suggests this line should be -4.5, while the rate of sustaining drives method suggests it should be -8.5. Given that, it might not seem like there’s any line value either way, but those numbers are much higher if you take out Chicago’s horrific Thursday Night performance. Besides, Detroit has the worst special teams in the league this year, something neither of those metrics captures. I like the matchup of Devin Hester against their special teams.

With the exception of that Thursday Night game, Chicago has covered by 10 or more in each of their 4 games, all of which have been blowouts. That’s a very impressive feat and I’m sticking with the team I proclaimed to be the best in the league here on Monday Night Football, where Jay Cutler is actually 7-3 ATS in his career. Detroit still has a bunch of issues so Chicago should pick up another double digit victory rested off a bye. Chicago is also my survivor pick on a bad week for survivor.

Public lean: Chicago (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Detroit covers)

Sharps lean: DET 15 CHI 4

Final update: No change, sticking with the Bears. I am, however, going to do a teaser of over 40.5 (normally 46.5) on the Buffalo/Tennessee game and Chicago -0.5 here for 1 unit. Assuming the over 40.5 hits, I can then hedge by taking the Detroit money line at +230 for a unit. That way, if Chicago wins, my teaser hits and I get +100 and lose 100 on the money line, so I don’t lose anything. If Chicago loses, I get the money line of +230 and lose 1 unit on the teaser, so -110, which equals out to be +120.

Assuming the over 40.5 hits in the Buffalo/Tennessee game, I can’t lose and it also allows me to somewhat hedge by Chicago +6.5 play. I like the over in the Buffalo/Tennessee game because neither of those teams can play defense as they rank 31st and 32nd in the league in points per game allowed and because games involving a team that just played a Thursday Night game go over 136 times and 97 times. In a 6 point teaser, that record improves to 184-52 for the over.

Sunday Night Update: I decided I’m not going to hedge. Confident in Bears to win because of how favorites have been doing this week (11-1 straight up, 7-4-1 ATS). It was bound to even out eventually.

Chicago Bears 31 Detroit Lions 17 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL)

Pick against spread: Chicago Bears -6.5 (-110) 2 units

Teaser: Over 40.5 Tennessee/Buffalo, Chicago -0.5

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Chicago Bears: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

Last week: 4 (+3)

Record: 4-1

I normally don’t comment on teams on bye, but I feel like this ranking requires a write up. I didn’t want to put a #1 team because I don’t know if anyone is deserving of that title, but I had to and I think Chicago deserves it more than everyone else. With the exception of the Thursday Night loss to Green Bay, the Bears have looked great this season, winning every game by 16 or more and only surrendering 7 sacks in 4 games. While you can’t completely ignore what happened on Thursday Night Football, it’s unreasonable to put too much stock into one game when a team has had 3 days to prepare on the road.

In their other 4 games, with the exception of Jacksonville, who they destroyed in Jacksonville in a potential trap game, they’ve played good opponents. Dallas should be a playoff contender right until the very end. They beat them by 16 in Dallas. Blowout wins over Indianapolis and St. Louis didn’t look impressive at the time, but now they do. Jay Cutler is now 9-1 in his last 10 games, including 22-10 dating back to 2010, including the 2 postseason games that year. Every year, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. At the very least, I think the Bears will do that. At most, they might just be the best team in the league, though there’s still a lot left uncertain.

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Chicago Bears: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

Last week: 6 (+2)

Record: 4-1

Jay Cutler is 9-1 in his last 10 games, with the one loss being the Thursday Night game, which I think we can just chalk up to being a fluky Thursday Night game. The Bears, other than that game, are 4-0 this year and have won all 4 games by at least 16, including one against a talented Cowboys team. Their offensive line has settled down and they rank 7th in the league in yards per play differential, a figure that’s even higher if you ignore week 2. They are the favorites in the NFC North and have momentarily leaped Philadelphia as the favorites to be this year’s team that goes from out of the playoffs to a 1st round bye. They should win at least the 11 games they won in 2010.

Studs

LT J’Marcus Webb: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 20 yards on 4 attempts

RG Lance Louis: Did not allow a pressure on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 40 yards on 5 attempts

WR Brandon Marshall: Caught 12 passes for 141 yards and a touchdown on 15 attempts on 41 pass snaps, 3.1 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Charles Tillman: Allowed 3 catches for 25 yards on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

CB DJ Moore: Allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 3 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

LOLB Lance Briggs: 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 sack on 6 blitzes, allowed 1 catch for 14 yards on 1 attempt, 1 interception

LE Corey Wootton: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 13 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 stops

FS Chris Conte: Was not thrown on, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

RT Gabe Carimi: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback hurries on 44 pass block snaps, 3 penalties, run blocked for 13 yards on 6 attempts

LE Israel Idonije: Did not record a pressure on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

RE Shea McClellin: Did not record a pressure on 19 pass rush snaps, no tackles

RE Julius Peppers: 1 quarterback hurry on 26 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Chicago Bears (3-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bears, Jaguars

Chicago Bears (3-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3)

Blaine Gabbert doesn’t seem noticeably improved over last year. Since a solid showing in the opener, he’s 40 of 74 for 394 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. He’s protecting the ball and not turning it over, but this offense simply has no explosion to it unless Maurice Jones-Drew is breaking off a bunch of big runs. Plus, turnovers are inconsistent on a week to week basis, so this offense, which ranks dead last in scoring, could get worse in the future. A tough matchup against Chicago is a very possible place for that to start.

Gabbert’s last 3 games have been especially poor. Against Houston, he had as many attempts as yards midway through the 3rd quarter and finished 7-19 for 53 yards. In a win in Indianapolis, he was 9 of 20 for 75 yards, up until an 80 yard touchdown to Cecil Shorts, in which the receiver did most of the work. Shorts and a huge day by Maurice Jones-Drew are the two reasons they won that game against the lowly Colts. Not Gabbert.

Last week, Cincinnati was missing their top 4 cornerbacks with injuries and using Terence Newman, Adam Jones, and Chris Crocker at cornerback. They stacked the box to stop MJD and Gabbert still went just 23 of 34 for 186 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. He had all of his offensive linemen healthy in that one, so there was no excuse.

He’s absolutely horrible and the Jaguars might be the worst team in the league. Cleveland may be 0-4, but they’ve been competitive in all 4 games, while Jacksonville didn’t even look that impressive in their win. It’s going to be hard to pick them as anything less than touchdown underdogs going forward. Daryl Smith, their best defensive player arguably, is once again out for this one.

Meanwhile, Chicago has been exactly average this season, if you believe their yards per play differential. In spite of that, this line, -5, is equal to the “real” line, because of how poor Jacksonville has been in that area, ranking 31st, so there’s no line value with Jacksonville. If you believe Chicago is truly an average team, then there’s no line value with Chicago either, but I would argue they aren’t. You do need to add a human element to any calculation of any “real” line.

With the exception of their horrific showing in Green Bay week 2, they have won the yards per play battle in 3 of their 4 games. That week 2 performance is really skewing things and I think that’s not indicative of this team’s level of ability. Think about it, at least one team has completely shit the bed like that in all 4 Thursday Night games, even good teams. Arizona lost by 14 to St. Louis this week, despite coming in at 4-0. Carolina got destroyed by the Giants, even though they were favored. Baltimore, meanwhile, barely defeated Cleveland at home.

3 days is not enough time to prepare, which is why Thursday Night games always suck (blame Roger Goodell, as always), and I don’t really blame the Bears for being that unprepared, so I kind of disregard what happened in that game for Chicago. Aside from that, this team is a well above average team that has won every game by at least 16 points, including an impressive showing in Dallas last Monday. Jay Cutler, as much criticism as he takes, is 17-8 in the regular season with the Bears over the last 2 years. They’re also getting Matt Forte back closer to 100%, if not 100% this week, after he was limited on Monday Night, so I do think there’s line value with Chicago when you add a human element to the formulaic analysis.

Speaking of that win in Dallas on Monday Night, teams are 47-32 ATS since 2002 off a MNF win over 14 or more. That trend is even more powerful when the win was by 21 or more, going 28-11 ATS. I know the Bears didn’t win by 21, but they were leading by 24 until a late garbage time drive by the Cowboys when they had already given up and put in Kyle Orton. The logic is that teams that get a blowout victory on MNF typically carry that into the next week and for all intents and purposes Chicago DID blow out Dallas.

The public is all over the Bears, but I’m still going to take them in this one. Normally I love fading the public, especially on big leans, and this is the biggest public lean of the week, but I like the Bears enough to take them anyway coming off a huge MNF performance. I think we’re getting line value with them and it’s really, really tough to take the Jaguars, even at home, as anything more than touchdown underdogs. We don’t have touchdown protection with the Jaguars, so it’s a small play on the Bears.

Public lean: Chicago (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Houston covers)

Sharps lean: JAX 11 CHI 8

Final update: Nothing to see here. Still expect a Chicago blowout. Jacksonville is terrible.

Chicago Bears 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against spread: Chicago -5 (-110) 2 units

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