Bears

Chicago Bears: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

Record: 3-1

Last week: 6 (+0)

This team really reminds me of the 2010 version. In 2010, they won 11 games and got a first round bye, but you never really felt like you could trust them to go all the way and win the Super Bowl. This year is similar. They stand at 3-1 with that one loss coming against the Packers on a Thursday Night game that they weren’t prepared for. However, they have an even yards per play differential of +0.0 and you know their offensive line or quarterback could combust at any time. They’ll win a bunch of games, but there are 5 teams in the NFL that I think have a better chance to win the Super Bowl than them, at least.

Studs

QB Jay Cutler: 18 of 24 for 275 yards and 2 touchdowns, 2 drops, 121.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 9 of 27 drop backs (2 sacks, 1 scramble, 5 of 6, 1 touchdown)

WR Brandon Marshall: Caught 7 passes for 138 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts on 28 pass plays

CB Charles Tillman: Allowed 3 catches for 28 yards on 8 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

LOLB Lance Briggs: Allowed 6 catches for 50 yards on 7 attempts, 1 interception, 6 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 6 pass rush snaps

SS Major Wright: Did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 2 interceptions, 3 solo tackles, 3 assists, 2 stops

DT Henry Melton: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 33 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

K Robbie Gould: 7 kickoffs, 5 touchbacks, 73.7 yards per kickoff, 18.9 opponent’s average starting distance, 2/2 FG (21, 43)

Duds

FS Chris Conte: Allowed 5 catches for 67 yards on 5 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 1 assist

MLB Brian Urlacher: Allowed 5 catches for 40 yards on 5 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, 3 missed tackles

DT Stephen Paea: Did not record a pressure on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 1 stop

RE Julius Peppers: 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bears, Cowboys

Chicago Bears (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

The Cowboys ended last season by getting destroyed defensively by, among others, the New York Giants. They lost 4 of their last 5 to blow the division and finish at 8-8, while they watched the Giants go on to eventually hoist the Super Bowl trophy. Given that, it’s no surprise that they spent as many resources as they did on the defensive side of the ball this offseason. It really seems to have paid off as they rank 1st in the league in yards per play allowed. Guys like Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne are playing really well, while several youngsters have stepped up.

Though they’ve faced the Seahawks and Buccaneers in 2 of their 3 games, they also did a solid job defensively on the Giants in the opener, holding them to 5.0 yards per play and 17 points. What’s even more impressive is that they’re doing this without Jay Ratliff, one of their best defensive players. He’s not expected to be able to go in this one either, but they might not need him much if they keep playing like they have.

While their defense has been excellent, their offense has been surprisingly middle of the pack. They’re normally one of the better offensive teams in the league and if they can get it together offensively and the defense continues to play well, they’re going to be a scary team. The biggest reason for their offensive issues is how many penalties they’ve committed. They lead the league with 22 offensive penalties. What’s even more concerning is that these penalties are mostly simple procedural penalties. I’d say they should be able to turn it around, but this isn’t a new issue for them. They were the 5th most penalized team in the league last year. Still, I don’t expect it to be THIS bad all year for them so there’s some room for improvement offensively and even with their offensive issues, they rank 2nd in the league in yards per play differential.

The Bears, meanwhile, rank right in the middle of the pack with an even yards per play differential. Their defense is also very good, as it normally is, but the offense is really sputtering. They had a huge performance week 1 against the lowly Colts, but they’ve struggled in the last two weeks against the Packers and the Rams. This was a top-5 offense last year before injuries struck so they should improve things eventually. They do have talent offensively; they’re just not playing up to it. Facing a tough defense this week though, this might not be the week to turn things around, especially with Matt Forte questionable.

I’ve gone into detail about these two teams’ yards per play differentials. The difference between these two teams’ differentials is 1.3 yards per play. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and then add 3 either way to get the “real line.” That suggests that this line should be -11.5 in favor of the Cowboys. Obviously, it’s a little bit more accurate later in the season, but it’s definitely worth noting. 8 points of line value is nothing to sneeze at. On top of that, the Bears are a public underdog and as much as I love the fade the public, I love to fade public underdogs even more.

Public lean: Chicago (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Dallas covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): CHI 7 DAL 3

Update: Sharps are not only afraid to bet this game, but they pick Chicago when they do. Anthony Spencer is expected to be out for the Cowboys, while Matt Forte is expected to play for the Bears. I’m dropping a unit.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Chicago Bears 23

Pick against spread: Dallas -3.5 (+100) 1 unit

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Chicago Bears: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

Last week: 8 (+2)

Record: 2-1

The defense is playing great as usual, but the offense needs to come along. The offensive line is a major issue, but Jay Cutler needs to be able to succeed in spite of it if he’s going to be considered an elite quarterback. The Giants won the Super Bowl last year despite a league worst pass block efficiency rating. Matt Forte is coming back from injury soon and they have an improved receiving corps. They won 11 games in 2010 and were 7-3 last year before injury struck. Expect them to have another strong season.

Studs

LG Chilo Rachal: Did not allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 25 yards on 3 attempts

C Roberto Garza: Did not allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for -6 yards on 3 attempts

CB Tim Jennings: Allowed 1 catch for 8 yards on 9 attempts, 1 interception, 2 pass deflections, 2 solo tackles

LOLB Lance Briggs: 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes, allowed 4 catches for 32 yards on 6 attempts, 2 pass deflections

LE Israel Idonije: 3 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 3 stops

DT Stephen Paea: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 2 stops

RE Julius Peppers: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

K Robbie Gould: 6 kickoffs, 5 touchbacks, 73.3 yards per kickoff, 19.7 opponent average starting distance, 3/3 FG (22, 37, 54)

Duds

QB Jay Cutler: 17 of 31 for 183 yards and 1 interception, 1 throw away, 1 batted pass, 59.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 11 of 34 drop backs (2 sacks, 1 scramble, 4 of 8, 1 hit as thrown)

RT Gabe Carimi: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Bears rule Matt Forte out, make a change on the offensive line

stevenlourie Bears, News

The Bears had an embarrassing loss to the Packers on Thursday Night Football last week, losing 23-10 in a huge game to a division rival. Jay Cutler was under pressure all night, pressured on 21 of 35 drop backs, taking 7 sacks and tossing 4 picks. Cutler was caught on camera screaming at and bumping into left tackle J’Marcus Webb. He has since apologized for the bump and the bump only, which is right.

Anyone overreacting to Cutler’s blow up doesn’t understand the behind the scenes of NFL football. That type of thing happens all the time (no I’ve never played, yes you can still understand the behind the scenes without having played). It’s a passionate sport played by passionate players and any player worth his salt won’t take it personally. It’s only when it’s caught on camera that people overreact. And you can’t knock Cutler for apparently not giving a shit that he was hurt and couldn’t play in the NFC Championship game in 2010 and then knock him for being passionate and competitive on the sideline.

However, the on the field issues still remain coming out of that game. The Bears have had one of the worst offensive lines in the league over the last 3 years and firing Mike Martz, their former offensive coordinator, whose scheme highlighted their offensive line’s deficiencies with many 5 and 7 step drops, didn’t help. The Bears also lost Matt Forte with an injury in that game and he will miss at least a week, though they’re saying it’s not a high ankle sprain.

In an attempt to fix the problems they’re having up front, the Bears have made a change on the offensive line, though it doesn’t involve left tackle J’Marcus Webb. The Bears have benched left guard Chris Spencer and replaced him with Chilo Rachel. Spencer has surrendered 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback pressures in 2 games, while being penalized once, so he’s obviously part of the problem. Rachal should be an upgrade. Before an injury plagued 2011 season, Rachal was ProFootballFocus’ 9th rated guard in 2010 in San Francisco. Still just 26, the former 2nd round pick is back in shape and healthy again and should help on their offensive line. It’s tough to imagine him solving all of their problems though.

This week, the Bears take on the Rams. There’s some value with them at just -7.5. They were -10.5 last week and I think there’s been too much of an overreaction to that one game, especially since St. Louis is a publicly favored underdog right now. Jay Cutler takes a shit like that once or twice a year and it never really means anything. Plus, they were totally overmatched as underdogs on Thursday Night Football (teams in that situation are 24-46 ATS). Cutler should bounce back (though I can’t say the same for this offensive line) and Michael Bush was signed for this purpose so he should be able to carry the load in Forte’s absence. However, the Rams are still an underrated team who has played much better this year than last year. This is a tough call this week.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams at Chicago Bears: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bears, Rams

St. Louis Rams (1-1) at Chicago Bears (1-1)

In 2010, I consistently ranked the Bears lower than most and lower than their record would have suggested because I simply didn’t trust the combination of Jay Cutler, that offensive line, and Mike Martz to consistently win 3 or 4 games in a row against playoff caliber teams, so I didn’t like their Super Bowl chances. This year, I thought with Martz gone, it was safe to put them near the top of my Power Rankings, but after last week’s explosion, now I’m not so sure.

They’ll still win a lot of games (they won 11 in 2010), but this offensive line is a mess. Cutler didn’t play well last week, but he was pressured on 21 of 35 drop backs. That doesn’t help. Mike Tice is a good offensive line coach, but he’s been too overconfident in the last two years or so, thinking he can coach up a group that just doesn’t have the talent and ignoring the position in the offseason and the draft.

The good news for the Bears, Jay Cutler always takes a shit like that once or twice per year and it’s never meant anything. He’s not declining as a player. He’s still what he’s always been and with a solid supporting cast (except for the offensive line), this team can still win a bunch of games and take a wild card spot in the crowded NFC. I just don’t know how much I like their Super Bowl chances.

The fact that it was a Thursday Night Game had a lot to do with the loss as well. If you haven’t read Jason Whitlock’s article about how hypocritical Roger Goodell is pretending he cares about player safety, while simultaneously expanding Thursday Night Football to a season long thing and trying to expand the season to 18 games, here it is. It’s a very good read and yet another reason to hate Thursday Night Football. You may be thinking, how can you hate Thursday Night football? It’s another night of football. Yes, but it’s also sloppy football and if it’s a good matchup, it’s cheating us out of the opportunity to watch it under normal circumstances.

Last week it was Packers/Bears, two bitter rivals and two of the better teams in the National Football League, and what we got, because it was on Thursday, was a sloppy mess of two tired and unprepared teams. If that game had been on Sunday Night football or Monday Night football or time slot other than Thursday Night Football, it would have probably have been one of the best games of the week. Instead, it was painful to watch.

If you don’t believe me, look at the over/under record for as far back as there is data (1989). Since 1989, the over has won 50 times and the under has won 67 times. These are typically games that are much lower scoring than they are expected to be and than they probably should be, and on top of that, it risks injury for players playing tired. Roger Goodell has never played football. He doesn’t understand that, or maybe he just doesn’t care.

Home favorites are 46-23 ATS since 1989 on Thursday Night, so the Bears were at a huge disadvantage. I went against that trend last week, only because I had a good reason. The Packers had really struggled the week before and the Bears had not, so the Packers would have more to work on during the week and be at a bigger disadvantage on a short week. Apparently not. Still, it’s important not to put a ton of value into that loss.

However, there was a big line movement from last week to this week on this game as the line was -10.5 last week and is -7.5 now, which is a big overreaction to one week. Matt Forte’s injury is a factor a bit, but Michael Bush can carry a load and the Bears will have had 10 days off since that big loss. Teams are 42-28 ATS since 2008 coming off Thursday Night football (excluding teams coming off week 1 Thursday Night games).

That being said, I still feel like the Rams, one of my preseason underrated teams, is still being underrated. This team has played well in their first 2 games, almost knocking off Detroit in Detroit and then beating an upstart Washington team in St. Louis last week. I know the Redskins suffered key injuries in that game on defense and that made it easier, but the Rams suffered key injuries on offense, particularly the offensive line, and survived.

Missing 3 starters, the Rams’ offensive line isn’t doing too well right now, but they seem to have schemed around that and Sam Bradford is doing a much better job of getting the ball out quickly than he did last year. Still, Chicago has a good pass rush, so he will be under pressure, but the Rams have a good pass rush too and the Bears’ offensive line is horrendous, so Cutler will be under pressure as well.

On top of that, this is a potential breather game for the Bears. They’re coming off a loss as an underdog and will almost definitely be underdogs next week in Dallas. Teams in that situation are 49-77 ATS since 2008. It’s unclear, however, if this will be a factor for them needing to make a statement win and after 10 days rest.

I’m pretty torn on this one. On one hand, we’re getting good value with the Bears because of an overreaction and while Jay Cutler has had trouble in big games recently, he’s 5-1 ATS as favorites of 7+ since joining the Bears. They’ve had 10 days to rest and even though this is a potential breather game for them, it might not end up being that because they need to make a statement and because they’ve had so much rest. They Rams are also public underdogs, despite the overreaction in the line, and I hate to pick the public dog in that situation.

At the same time, the Rams are really underrated. These teams also are dead equal in yards per play differential, which is my favorite stat and one I feel is the best indicator of future success. I also feel like both of these teams are going to end up in the playoffs and there’s just not a 4.5 point difference between them (3 points is home field advantage). I’m just going to take the points and hope for a backdoor cover that makes this less than a 7 point game or that the game will just be naturally close. My gut feeling is this won’t be a blowout. If this were the -10.5 it was before last week, St. Louis might have been one of my biggest picks of the week, but there’s a huge line overreaction here and I hate picking public dogs when there’s a huge line overreaction because typically that means I’m falling for the overreaction.

Public lean: St. Louis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Chicago covers)

Chicago Bears 24 St. Louis Rams 17

Pick against spread: St. Louis -7.5 (-110) 1 unit

Chicago Bears: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

Last week: 1 (-7)

Record: 1-1

In 2010, I consistently ranked the Bears lower than most and lower than their record would have suggested because I simply didn’t trust the combination of Jay Cutler, that offensive line, and Mike Martz to consistently win 3 or 4 games in a row against playoff caliber teams, so I didn’t like their Super Bowl chances. This year, I thought with Martz gone, it was safe to put them near the top of my Power Rankings, but after last week’s explosion, now I’m not so sure.

They’ll still win a lot of games (they won 11 in 2010), but this offensive line is a mess. Cutler didn’t play well last week, but he was pressured on 21 of 35 drop backs. That doesn’t help. Mike Tice is a good offensive line coach, but he’s been too overconfident in the last two years or so, thinking he can coach up a group that just doesn’t have the talent and ignoring the position in the offseason and the draft.

The good news for the Bears, Jay Cutler always takes a shit like that once or twice per year and it’s never meant anything. He’s not declining as a player. He’s still what he’s always been and with a solid supporting cast (except for the offensive line), this team can still win a bunch of games and take a wild card spot in the crowded NFC. I just don’t know how much I like their Super Bowl chances.

Oh, and by the way, anyone overreacting to Cutler’s blow up at an offensive lineman on the sideline doesn’t understand the behind the scenes of NFL football. That type of thing happens all the time (no I’ve never played, yes you can still understand the behind the scenes without having played). It’s a passionate sport played by passionate players and any player worth his salt won’t take it personally. It’s only when it’s caught on camera that people overreaction. And you can’t knock Cutler for apparently not giving a shit that he was hurt and couldn’t play in the NFC Championship game in 2010 and then knock him for being passionate and competitive on the sideline.

Chicago Bears

Studs

LOLB Lance Briggs: 9 solo tackles, 4 stops, allowed 6 completions for 48 yards on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection

CB Tim Jennings: Allowed 5 completions for 31 yards on 9 attempts, 1 interception, 5 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle, 2 stops

CB Charles Tillman: Allowed 3 completions for 18 yards on 3 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

LT J’Marcus Webb: Allowed 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 15 yards (11 after contact) on 3 attempt

LG Chris Spencer: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards (3 after contact) on 2 attempt

RT Gabe Carimi: Allowed 5 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 2 yards (1 after contact) on 1 attempt

TE Kellen Davis: Run blocked for 1 yard (2 after contact) on 2 attempts, 1 penalty, 1 catch for 21 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts on 28 pass plays, 0.0 YAC per catch

C Roberto Garza: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards (10 after contact) on 6 attempts

QB Jay Cutler: 11 of 27 for 126 yards, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions, 2 batted passes, 2 drops, 36.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 21 of 35 drop backs (7 sacks, 4 of 14, 3 interceptions)

WR Earl Bennett: 2 catches for 21 yards on 6 targets on 30 pass plays, 3 interceptions when thrown to, 5.5 YAC per catch

WR Brandon Marshall: 2 catches for 24 yards on 5 targets on 37 pass plays, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to, 1.0 YAC per catch

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers

Chicago Bears (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1)

This is the game of the week right here. I’ve been high on the Bears all offseason, naming them as one of my underrated teams. In fact, I thought they were the 2nd best team in the NFC, but couldn’t have them winning the division because the Packers were just so good. Well, the Packers aren’t looking so good anymore. Aaron Rodgers has, believe it or not, dropped 3 of his last 4 starts, including two straight at home.

It hasn’t really been his fault. His defense is way too reliant on turnovers and can’t stop anyone without them. In their last 3 games where they failed to force a turnover, they’ve lost. It’s very tough to predict turnover totals on a yearly basis. Teams with 35 or more have had 10.58 fewer turnovers in their next season. The Packers can’t expect to force the 38 turnovers they did last year. They’ll have to get better defensively.

I thought the addition of 3 key contributors through the draft and potential bounce back years from BJ Raji and Tramon Williams would allow this team to bounce back; after all Dom Caper is one of the better defensive coordinators in the game and they had the league’s 2nd ranked scoring defense in 2010, but I guess not. They made Alex Smith look like Joe Montana in the opener, blowing numerous coverages, failing to stuff the run, and only pressuring Smith on 7 dropbacks, fewest in the NFL last week. If they can’t improve defensively, their offense won’t be able to get onto the field to do what they do best and the Packers could fairly well be this year’s team that goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs. They can’t afford to go down 0-2 at home to start the season.

Unfortunately, things don’t get any easier here for the Packers. The Bears might be the best team in the NFL and if they aren’t, they are certainly up there. They can compete with the Packers, at the very least. They blew out an underrated Colts team last week to start this season. In 2010, they went 11-5 and made it to the NFC Championship game. In 2011, they started out 7-3 before injuries struck to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. Cutler and Forte are back. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are in and both had great debuts. And their offensive line doesn’t look as overmatched as they did under Mike Martz, allowing Cutler to be pressured on just 11 of 37 drop backs. And then, of course, they still have one of the league’s better defenses.

The Bears were one of my underrated teams coming into the season. The idea was to bet them until I was proven wrong or the odds makers caught up. The good news is that the odds makers don’t seem to have caught up, chalking last week’s win up to their strength of opponent, even though I think the Colts are also underrated. This line is -6 in Lambeau. At the very least, given the way the Packers played last week, this line should be -3, to indicate these teams are about even, so there’s line value here. And don’t worry about betting against Aaron Rodgers after a loss. He’s just 4-5 ATS in his career as a favorite after losing as a favorite. Besides, while I expect the Packers to come out with incredible urgency to try to avoid an 0-2 start, I expect the Bears to come out with a similar level of urgency in a statement game and a chance to put the Packers at a huge disadvantage early.

Jay Cutler and company should be able to move the ball with ease against this Packers defense. Aaron Rodgers and company should be able to do the same against the Bears’ defense, as good as they are, because Rodgers has proven that you can’t really stop him. You can just limit him. Even last week, he was 30 of 44 for 303 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick against the 49ers’ vaunted defense. That’s not a bad week statistically. The Packers will move the ball here. However, the Bears are a much more well rounded team, like the 49ers were last week. One injury of note for the Packers, Greg Jennings is unlikely to play. The Packers have a deep receiving corps, so that loss might not be huge, but he is their #1 receiver so his absence can’t be ignored.

I’m taking the Bears to win and cover as 6 point underdogs, though I’m a lot more confident about the latter than the former. This figures to be an evenly matched game, so even if the Bears do lose, it probably won’t be by very much. This is a tight rivalry historically. Before 2 contests last year, the last 6 matchups between these two have been decided by 7 points or less. What happened last year? Well, in their 1st matchup, the Bears lost by 10, but should have lost by 3 if not for a phantom penalty bringing back a Devin Hester return for a touchdown. I can only assume the refs had Packers -4 in that one. In their 2nd matchup, Cutler and Forte were both out, but the Bears still managed to keep it within 14 even though the Packers were 13-1 heading into that contest and the Bears had lost their 2 best offensive players and 4 straight. That says a lot about how seriously they take this rivalry, as do the Packers, so this one will be close either way most likely, now that the two sides are more evenly matched.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Chicago covers)

Chicago Bears 31 Green Bay Packers 27 Upset Pick +240

Pick against spread: Chicago +6 (-105) 4 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Chicago Bears: Week 2 Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

The Bears take over the #1 spot with a blowout win in which they were impressive on both sides of the ball, even though Brian Urlacher was playing hurt, against an underrated Colts team. I’ve been high on this team all offseason, but could never put them ahead of the Packers in the NFC because I thought the Packers were so good, but that defense looks like a mess in Green Bay. Of course, we’ll get an answer on Bears/Packers when the Bears head to Lambeau this week for Thursday Night Football. Stay tuned.

Studs

QB Jay Cutler: 21 of 35 for 333 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, 1 batted pass, 1 thrown away, 2 drops, pressured 11 times, 96.4 adjusted QB rating

RB Matt Forte: 80 yards (45 after contact) and a touchdown on 16 carries, 4 broken tackles, 3 catches for 40 yards on 5 attempts, 1 dropped pass, 1 interception when thrown to

WR Brandon Marshall: 9 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown on 15 attempts, 1 drop, 2.8 YAC per catch on 39 pass plays

CB Tim Jennings: Allowed 3 catches for 56 yards on 9 attempts, 2 interceptions, 2 pass deflections, 5 tackles, 1 stop on 13 run snaps

CB DJ Moore: Allowed 2 catches for 31 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 2 solo tackles on 5 run snaps, 1 special teams tackle

FS Chris Conte: Allowed 1 catch for 13 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 interception, 2 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1 missed tackle on 13 run snaps

Duds

MLB Brian Urlacher: Allowed 3 completions for 42 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles on 7 run snaps

ROLB Nick Roach: Allowed 2 completions for 43 yards on 2 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 2 assists, 1 missed tackle on 11 run snaps, 1 quarterback pressure on 4 blitzes

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bears, Colts

Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

For those of you who followed me in the offseason, you’ll know that I did a lot of work to identify 5 underrated and 5 overrated teams to get ahead of the odds makers, bet them until they caught up or the teams proved him wrong, and make some money. Unfortunately, I got kind of screwed over week 1 or two of my overrated teams and two of my underrated teams are playing each other.

This game features the former. The Bears were 11-5 and made it to the NFC Championship game in 2010 and last year they were 7-3 before Jay Cutler and Matt Forte went down. Brandon Marshall comes in to bolster their receiving corps and Mike Martz leaves as offensive coordinator, which is addition by subtraction because they never fit his scheme. Their offensive line is still a mess, but the Giants won the Super Bowl last year with the league’s worst offensive line in pass blocking efficiency. Jay Cutler has proven in the right scheme (not Martz’ where he had to drop back 7 steps on every play), that he can be very tough to sack (in his final year in Denver, he was sacked on 6.0% of pressured snaps, the lowest percent for any quarterback in the last 4 years). The defense will be solid as always, even with their linebackers aging, with strong defensive line and secondary play.

Meanwhile, the Colts have an over/under of 5.5 coming into the season. When an over/under win total is 6 or lower, the over hits about 2 of 3 three times. I wish I liked more of the lower over/under totals this year for prop bets, but I do like the Colts. Andrew Luck doesn’t have much of a supporting cast, but he should prove to be a franchise quarterback from the word go and with an easy schedule, they should be able to at least match the 6 wins the Panthers got last year. Besides, since the start of a 16 game season, teams that regress 8 wins win on average 5.0 more the following season. Obviously losing Peyton Manning hurts, but Andrew Luck and maybe a few breakout players will make them better than people think.

So who am I going with? Well, it’s not an easy decision, but I’m going with the Bears, simply because this is Andrew Luck’s 1st NFL start and he gets an awfully tough test. I really like to bet against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams.

Luck is no ordinary rookie quarterback, but the Bears defense is no ordinary defense. The linebackers get all the hype, but their defensive line is very strong led by Julius Peppers and underrated defensive tackle Henry Melton and they have a very underrated secondary, led by cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings. Even if Urlacher isn’t his usual self, they should be able to hold Andrew Luck and the Colts’ offense in check. Remember, Luck doesn’t have a lot of help. He should make the receiving corps and offensive line look better than they are, just like he did in college, but they don’t run the ball well. On the defensive side of the ball, there’s not much he can do and a suddenly explosive Bears offense should be able to move the ball well against it, even with guys like Vontae Davis, Dwight Freeney, and Robert Mathis. I’m taking the home team for a small bet.

Chicago Bears 31 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against spread: Chicago -9.5 (-110) 1 unit

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Bears unsure Brian Urlacher will be ready for the opener

stevenlourie Bears, News

Brian Urlacher is the most recognizable Bears defender, maybe even the most recognizable Bears player, after how long he’s been there. However, the Bears are reportedly pessimistic about his availability for the opener, according to NFL.com, after two knee surgeries this offseason. Urlacher also got what’s colloquially known as “Kobe surgery” in Europe this offseason, referring to the platelet rich injection that Kobe Bryant famously started getting over the past couple of years.

It’s doesn’t sound like, either way, that Urlacher will miss that many games with this injury and may even be ready to go week 1. However, it’s definitely a concerning situation for a player who is entering his age 34 season. Urlacher was ProFootballFocus’ 12th rated middle linebacker last season, but if his body is breaking down, his days of being that kind of player might be over.

Still, the Bears should be able to have one of the best defenses in the league again this season. Urlacher is hardly their only good player and linebackers are not quite as important of a position as guys who rush the passer or cover receivers. The Bears have a great pass rusher in Julius Peppers, a budding star at defensive tackle in Henry Melton, two young, talented defensive lineman in Shea McClellin and Stephen Paea, and, a strong secondary that allowed just 6.8 YPA last season, 8th best in the NFL, on top of, of course Lance Briggs and Urlacher when healthy.

They ranked 14th in the league, allowing 21.3 points per game last year, but were less than a point per game out of the top-10. They could have a top-10 defense to compliment what was a top-10 offense last year before injuries to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, averaging 26.8 points per game in 10 games and going 7-3. That points per game figure would have ranked 5th in the league last year, had they maintained it over a season. The Bears also added Brandon Marshall this offseason and did some addition by subtraction by getting rid of Mike Martz, whose scheme their personnel never fit. They’re one of the league’s best teams and could be Super Bowl contenders.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]