Bears

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears: 2021 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (9-2) at Chicago Bears (4-7)

Yet again, a point spread has been posted for a Cardinals game even though we don’t have anything definitive on the status of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. In each of the past three games, the oddsmakers have posted a spread that has expected both to play and in all three games, both players missed the game, causing the oddsmakers to drastically change the line, in some cases the morning of the game. 

In two of the games, it didn’t really matter, as the Cardinals won once as underdogs and lost once as favorites, but in their last game the Cardinals spent most of the week as favorites and then became underdogs before gametime, meaning if you had bet against them as money line favorites early in the week, you could have then bet on them as money line underdogs later in the week and guaranteeing you would win money regardless. The oddsmakers aren’t taking as big of a chance this week, but it’s odd to see them so confidently posting lines despite major injuries.

Murray and Hopkins seem likelier to play this week than they have in the past, coming off of a bye week and practicing more this week than they had in recent weeks before the bye week, but the Cardinals could continue being cautious with one or both against a losing team, with a much tougher game against the Rams on deck. I also think we are getting good line value with the Bears even if Murray and Hopkins do play, as both could be limited and their return does not solve all of the Cardinals problems.

The Cardinals went 2-1 without Murray and Hopkins, but they had just an even point differential across an underwhelming schedule, despite winning the turnover battle by three, which is not a predictive metric. Their offense actually held up pretty well without Murray and Hopkins and obviously getting both back, even at less than 100%, will be a boost for this unit, but they are unlikely to be as good as they were at the beginning of the season, not only because Murray and Hopkins could be limited, but also because they are still missing running back Chase Edmonds and starting left guard Justin Pugh. 

Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ defense has not been as good in the past few weeks since losing key interior defender JJ Watt and they could be even more short-handed this week, after top cornerback Byron Murphy got hurt in Friday’s practice. The Bears aren’t a tough opponent, but the Cardinals just aren’t as good as they played earlier in the season or as good as their record, even if Murray and Hopkins play, and we’re getting line value with the Bears at +7.5, as my calculated line has the Cardinals favored by 5, with Murray and Hopkins playing, but not at 100%. 

If one or both of Hopkins and Murray end up not playing, we will obviously be getting even more value with the Bears, so I like locking this one in right now. Big road favorites typically do well after a bye week, covering at a 64.2% rate all-time as favorites of 3.5 or more, but that could be somewhat cancelled out by the Cardinals having a much tougher game next week. This isn’t a big play, but there is enough value here with the Bears to lock in a bet before the line potentially moves down.

Update: Both Murray and Hopkins are active and this line has stayed put at 7.5, but Hopkins at least sounds like he will be limited, while Murray could be rusty in his first game back and he won’t have one of his top blockers with Justin Pugh out. Byron Murphy will be active on defense, but this defense still has not been the same since losing JJ Watt. The Cardinals should still win this game, but it’s a lot to ask them to go on the road and cover a spread of more than a touchdown against anyone other than the worst teams in the league. The Bears are not one of the worst teams in the league and, in fact, are getting healthy on the offensive line and have probably their best quarterback under center, with Andy Dalton playing over raw rookie Justin Fields.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7.5

Confidence: Medium

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: 2021 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (3-7) at Detroit Lions (0-9-1)

Both of these teams are dealing with injuries to their expected starting quarterback. The Bears’ situation is less concerning, with experienced veteran Andy Dalton being the backup. Dalton obviously lacks the upside or athleticism of rookie starting quarterback Justin Fields, but he is probably an upgrade as a passer and might not be a downgrade overall. The Lions’ situation is more concerning because, as bad as Jared Goff has been as a starter this season, backup Tim Boyle is still a big downgrade, struggling mightily in his debut last week after previously throwing just four passes in four seasons in the league after going undrafted in 2018. 

The good news for the Lions, however, is that, unlike Fields, who has been ruled out, Goff is questionable and seems like he is on the right side of questionable and likely to start after a one-game absence. This team still has a lot of problems even if Goff plays, but they are not as bad as their record suggests, as many of their losses have been close. Their -113 point differential is certainly not good, but it’s better than the point differential of the Texans (-121) and Jets (-142), who have probably had worse seasons than the Lions, despite managing to win a couple games each.

That point differential shows they are being outscored by an average of 11.3 points per game, but even that suggests they are getting blown out more often than they are, with just three of their ten games resulting in losses by more than 10 points, including a game against the Packers in which they led at halftime in Green Bay. By contrast, four of their ten games have been decided by three points or fewer, relevant given that they are 3-point underdogs in this game. That’s all despite the fact that the Lions have faced an above average schedule and, in fact, this home game against the Bears is arguably the easiest game of their season. 

The Bears are 3-7 and have been as bad as their record suggests, with the 6th worst point differential in the league at -77 and rankings of 29th, 12th, and 22nd in offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency respectively. This once dominant defense is not what it was, due to several key off-season departures in recent years and now some in-season injuries, most impactfully the ones suffered by Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks, arguably their two best defensive players, whose absence makes their defense even worse than their efficiency rank. Meanwhile, their offense has struggled as much as it has in recent years, regardless of who they have started at quarterback. 

The Lions rank 27th, 27th, and 4th in offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency respectively, which is very underwhelming, but still doesn’t make them the worst team in the league and it makes them a decent value as 3-point home underdogs, assuming Goff can play. Winless teams also tend to be a good bet this late in the season, covering the spread at a 63.3% rate in week 9 or later. I still wouldn’t bet them in that scenario, but if Goff plays and this line stays put, they are the better side for pick ‘em purposes. If Goff is out, I will likely be on the Bears for no confidence as a pure fade of Tim Boyle. I am leaving this as a no confidence pick on the Lions, but I will likely have an update based on Goff’s status and any potential line movement.

Update: It sounds like Goff is playing, so I’m bumping this up to low confidence before the line drops below a field goal, which it could on Thursday morning.

Chicago Bears 24 Detroit Lions 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: Low

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (6-3) at Chicago Bears (3-6)

This is one of the toughest calls of the week. The Ravens are 6-3, but have just a +14 point differential and are not blowing teams out, winning just twice by more than six points, which is very relevant, considering they are 6.5 point favorites here in Chicago. On the other hand, the Bears might be bad enough to justify this line being that high, even with the Ravens not blowing teams out. The Bears are just 3-6 and rank just 26th in point differential at -74, while ranking 28th, 18th, 13th in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency.

Things are only getting even worse on defense too, with both Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks now out for an extended period of time. This once dominant defense is a shell of its former self, due to several key off-season departures in recent years and now some in-season injuries, most impactfully the ones suffered by Mack and Hicks. Meanwhile, their offense has struggled as much as it has in recent years, led by rookie quarterback Justin Fields and a subpar offensive line and skill position group. My calculated line has the Bears as 5-point favorites, so we are getting a little bit of line value with Chicago, but I don’t have much confidence in them.

Update: There have been several injury updates that will effect this game significantly. Previously listed as questionable, #1 wide receiver Marquise Brown was ruled out on Saturday, despite getting a limited practice in on Sunday. The Ravens will be without a pair of cornerbacks in Anthony Averett and Jimmy Smith, who were both also questionable. More importantly, quarterback Lamar Jackson has been ruled out with an illness, despite returning to practice on Friday as well. Without two those on the Ravens’ offense, I have these two teams about even in my roster rankings, so it’s surprising to see the Ravens still favored by 1.5 points on the road. Ravens backup quarterback Tyler Huntley is not a bad option, but he’s an obvious downgrade from Jackson and will be without his top receiver. I wouldn’t bet on the spread, but the money line is worth a bet higher than +100. You may need to lock this in quickly as news spreads of Jackson being inactive and spread bets bet push this line.

Chicago Bears 19 Baltimore Ravens 17 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Chicago +1.5

Confidence: Low

Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (3-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)

The Steelers have moved up above .500, but they’re still an underwhelming team overall. Their total margin of victory across their four wins is still less than their total margin of defeat across their three losses, giving them a point differential of -10. In efficiency ratings, they rank 23rd, 11th, and 18th on offense, defense, and special teams respectively. They were a 12-4 team a year ago, but their offense struggled and their wins were primarily because of their defense carrying them to mostly close victories against a relatively weak schedule. This year, their offense has been about the same, while their defense has fallen noticeably from last year’s dominant performance, even if they are still an above average unit.

That being said, I don’t have any desire to bet on the Bears, who are an even more underwhelming team. Their offense has remained stagnant like the Steelers’ offense and like the Bears’ offense has been for years, while their once dominant defense has declined significantly in recent years due to off-season losses and is significantly worse than Pittsburgh’s, especially with edge defender Khalil Mack and safety Eddie Jackson both likely out for this game. We are still getting some line value with the Bears at +6.5 because my calculated line is at Pittsburgh -5, but this is a pick for pick ’em purposes only, as even against an overrated Steelers team, it’s hard to be confident in the Bears covering the spread.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: Chicago +6.5

Confidence: Low

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears: 2021 Week 8 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (2-4) at Chicago Bears (3-4)

I expected the 49ers to make a big leap in win total this season, after finishing 6-10 a year ago. I expected that because they were likely to have better injury luck and a better turnover margin, after finishing worst in adjusted games lost and 2nd worst in turnover margin (-11). However, the 49ers still have the league’s 4th worst turnover margin at -7 and, while their injury situation isn’t as bad as a year ago, they are still one of the more banged up teams in the league. 

In total, they are missing stud tight end George Kittle, starting running back Raheem Mostert, top cornerback Jason Verrett, rotational interior defenders Javon Kinlaw and Maurice Hurst, starting linebacker Dre Greenlaw, and possibly stud left tackle Trent Williams, who is questionable to return from a one-game absence after barely practicing this week. Turnover margin is a very unpredictable stat on a week-to-week basis, so I don’t expect this team to continue struggling in the turnover margin, but their upside is capped by the amount of talent they are missing. 

Still, the 49ers are better than their 2-4 record, especially since they have faced an above average schedule, with all but one of their games decided by a single score. Meanwhile, the Bears are not as good as even their mediocre 3-4 record suggests, as all four of their losses have come by at least 10 points, giving them a point differential overall of -61, which ranks just 27th in the NFL, with the five teams behind them combining for just five wins total.

The Bears’ offense continues to struggle even with Justin Fields in the lineup because he is a raw rookie and his supporting cast is mediocre at best, while their defense is not nearly the same as it once was, due to a combination of off-season losses over the past few years and players missing due to injury. The Bears should get Akiem Hicks back in the lineup this week, but they will also lose edge defender Khalil Mack, who is their most important defender. If the 49ers had Trent Williams in the lineup this week, we would be getting some line value with them, even as 4-point road favorites.

That being said, I am not planning on betting on the 49ers. Aside from the uncertainty around Williams’ status, the Bears are also in a good spot because they are coming off of a blowout loss, and should be fully focused to try to redeem themselves. Overall, teams cover at 58.0% rate the following week after a 35+ point loss all-time and this could easily be one of the Bears’ best efforts of the season. Because of that, I would only recommend the 49ers as a bet for pick ‘em purposes and if Williams is out, I would probably drop all confidence.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -4

Confidence: Low

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (3-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1)

The Buccaneers entered the season as one of the top Super Bowl favorites, bringing back all 22 starters from last season’s Super Bowl winning team, and they have gotten off to a 5-1 start thus far, but they’ve gone 3-0 in one score games, so they’ve gotten somewhat lucky to be where they are record wise. They also lost five regular season games last season before getting hot in the post-season and they are also dealing with something that they really didn’t last season, which is a significant amount of injuries, a list that has been growing by the week. In total, the Buccaneers will be without top cornerback Carlton Davis, fellow starting cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, top off ball linebacker Lavonte David, starting edge defender Jason Pierre-Paul, stud wide receiver Antonio Brown, and talented starting tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Despite that, the Buccaneers are still favored by 11.5 points in this matchup against the Bears. The Bears looked like one of the worst teams in the league to start the season, but they’ve been better in recent weeks, as their defense has gotten healthier, their offense is in marginally better hands with promising rookie Justin Fields under center rather than low upside veteran Andy Dalton, and their special teams has played great in recent weeks. The Buccaneers should still win this game relatively easily, but my calculated line has the Buccaneers favored by 10, suggesting we’re getting some value with the underdog at +11.5. This isn’t a bettable game, but the Bears are the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Chicago +11.5

Confidence: Low

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2021 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (4-1) at Chicago Bears (3-2)

The Bears are somehow 3-2, but their three wins haven’t been that impressive. They beat a middling Bengals team by 3 in a game in which they won the turnover battle by 3, but lost the yards per play battle by 1.22, which is much more predictive than turnover margin. They beat a Lions team that is 0-5 on the season. And last week they beat a Raiders team that needed two overtime wins to get to 3-1 and that was likely distracted by the situation with head coach Jon Gruden. Meanwhile, the Bears two losses came in uncompetitive games against the Rams and Browns. 

Their once dominant defense is not nearly as good as it once was, losing key personnel over the past few off-seasons and dealing with injuries to key players this season, including both Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack, who figure to be noticeably limited this week even if they can suit up. Overall, they rank 13th in yards per play allowed and it’s not hard to see how that would get worse if Hicks and/or Mack missed significant time, while their offense ranks 28th in first down rate. They are probably in better shape with rookie Justin Fields under center rather than Andy Dalton, but he also hasn’t been the spark this offense needs and he has a very underwhelming offensive supporting cast, in large part due to key injuries at the offensive tackle and running back positions. 

However, I think the public realizes the Bears are not as good as their record, as they remain 6-point home underdogs against the Packers. The Packers are 4-1, but they haven’t been as good as their record and, unlike the Bears, I don’t think the public realizes that. Two of their wins came on last second field goals, while their other two wins came in games in which they struggled to separate at home from inferior teams in the Steelers and Lions. And of course, their week one blowout loss in New Orleans can’t be completely ignored yet. 

It’s easy to think this is the same Packers team as a year ago, but with left tackle David Bakhtiari, cornerback Jaire Alexander, and edge defender Za’Darius Smith all out, this just isn’t as talented of a team as a year ago. Those are three of the best players in the NFL at their respective positions and the most important Packers outside of Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, so they can’t just be replaced, even if the Packers have managed to continue winning in relatively unimpressive fashion. On top of that, Rodgers isn’t quite playing at his MVP level from a year ago. 

This is still a good team, but they shouldn’t be regarded as if they were the same team as a year ago. Rodgers also has about a 10 point drop in QB rating on the road in his career, which is well above average for a quarterback, which is a concern if you want to take the Packers as 6 point road favorites here in Chicago. There isn’t enough here for the Bears to be worth betting, but they should be the better side for pick ‘em purposes, as this is more likely than not to be a close game. 

Green Bay Packers 24 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +6

Confidence: Low

Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (2-2) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-1)

The Bears are 2-2, but one of their wins came against the awful Detroit Lions, while their other win came by just 3 points over the Bengals in a game in which they won the turnover battle by 3, but lost the yards per play battle by 1.22, which is much more predictive. Meanwhile, their two losses were not at all close. Their once dominant defense has been middling at best, thanks to several off-seasons of significant departures, along with some injury absences, but the biggest problem by far has been their offense, which ranks 29th in the NFL in first down rate. 

I expected the Bears’ offense to struggle mightily coming into the season and for their defense to not be nearly good enough to compensate and so far that has proven true, even if they have managed to go 2-2. It’s possible the switch to Justin Fields under center instead of Andy Dalton will provide a spark for this offense, but that’s far from a guarantee and hasn’t really proven to be true yet. On top of that, the Bears’ offensive issues go far beyond the quarterback position, most notably their issues on the offensive line and at running back, where the Bears are now without their top-2 expected running backs with David Montgomery out indefinitely. 

The Raiders haven’t been as good as their early record either, but they’re clearly the better of these two teams, as the Bears rank as the 5th worst team in my roster rankings, 7 points below average, where the Raiders are slightly above average overall. The Raiders’ offensive line and running game aren’t nearly as good as they have been in recent years, but Derek Carr is throwing to an improved group of young receivers and their defense has taken a big step forward, in large part due to a dominant pass rush, led by free agent acquisition Yannick Ngakoue. My calculated line has the Raiders favored by 10 in this matchup, so we’re getting enough line value at -5.5 for the Raiders to be worth a small play this week.

Las Vegas Raiders 24 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas -5.5

Confidence: Medium

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (0-3) at Chicago Bears (1-2)

The big question for the Bears this week is who is going to start at quarterback. Veteran Andy Dalton began the season as the starter, much to the chagrin of fans who wanted to see rookie first round pick Justin Fields get a shot from the start of the season, and even when Dalton struggled through two games and then injured his knee, Dalton remained the starter on the depth chart, with Fields only coming into the lineup as an injury replacement. 

Fields had a shot to flip the depth chart with a good performance in Dalton’s absence, but Fields struggled mightily last week in an embarrassing loss to the Browns. With Dalton at less than 100%, Fields’ performance last week prompted the Bears to make this a three quarterback battle, with veteran third stringer Nick Foles a possibility to start over Fields if Dalton can’t play. The Bears are calling their quarterback decision a gametime call, likely suggesting they are holding out hope Dalton can play through his injury, and there isn’t anything close to definitive on who the Bears are going to use this week.

Ultimately, who starts at quarterback might not matter that much because none of them are good enough to elevate a team with serious issues beyond the quarterback position, especially on the offensive line. Fortunately, the Bears do get a much easier matchup this week with the Lions, one of the worst teams in the league, coming to town and, on top of that, the Bears’ defense should at least be in somewhat better shape with nose tackle Eddie Goldman and possibly middle linebacker Danny Trevathan set to make their season debuts after missing the start of the year with injury.

The Bears are 1.5 points better than the Lions in my roster rankings, suggesting they should be favored by more than the field goal they are favored by, but these are the 4th worst and 5th worst teams in my roster rankings and it’s hard to get excited to bet on a team as mediocre as the Bears, especially given their uncertain quarterback situation. I’m still taking the Bears for pick ‘em purposes, but this is a low confidence pick and I might drop it to no confidence depending on what they do with their quarterback situation. The worst thing they could do in my opinion would be to try to play Dalton at less than 100%, as he is not an upgrade enough over Fields or Foles to justify playing him at less than full strength.

Chicago Bears 24 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago -3

Confidence: Low

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)

The Browns are just 1-1, but I’ve been very impressed with them thus far this season. Their loss came in Kansas City against the Chiefs and they easily could have won, suggesting they probably would have beaten just about anyone else, anywhere else week one. In that loss, the Browns outperformed the Chiefs in more predictive metrics like first down rate (42.11% vs. 34.43%) and yards per play (8.16 vs. 6.51), primarily losing the game because they lost the turnover margin, which is much less predictive. 

The Browns followed up that narrow loss to the Chiefs with a 10-point win over the Texans, which doesn’t sound that impressive, but the Browns once again performed better in more predictive metrics than margin of victory, winning the first down rate battle by 11.26% and the yards per play battle by 1.02. The Browns’ offense came into the season with as much upside as any team in the league and they have lived up to it, leading the league in first down rate through two weeks, despite dealing with some injuries, while their revamped defensive unit has been a solid complementary unit. 

The Browns should be considered a legitimate contender, but are a bit underrated because their record doesn’t tell the whole story and the general public doesn’t realize this is a significantly improved team from a year ago. The Bears, meanwhile, were thoroughly outplayed in Los Angeles week 1 against a good, but probably overrated Rams team and then followed that up with a 3-point loss against the Bengals in a game in which they won the turnover battle by 3, but were outgained by 1.22 yards per play, a much more predictive metric. 

Their offense could get a spark this week with rookie quarterback Justin Fields being forced into action with veteran Andy Dalton injured, but that’s far from a guarantee in his first career start and this offense has significant problems beyond the quarterback position, while their once dominant defense is middling at best thanks to several off-seasons of key departures and injuries to key players like Danny Trevathan and Eddie Goldman, who will once again be out this week. 

I thought the Bears were a significantly below average team coming into the season and nothing has happened to change my mind on that, so a talented team like the Browns shouldn’t have any problem against them. This line is mispriced with the Browns only favored by 7 (my calculated line is Cleveland -12), so let’s take advantage with a big wager. This line is creeping up to 7.5 in some places, which would still be worth a bet, but not as big of a bet, given how important a number 7 is for betting purposes.

Cleveland Browns 27 Chicago Bears 14

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -7

Confidence: Pick of the Week