Quarterback

The Bengals made the Super Bowl at the end of the 2021 season and then made it back to the AFC Championship game in 2022, but they have missed the post-season in back-to-back seasons since then. In 2023, the big issue was quarterback Joe Burrow not being healthy for most of the season, struggling through a calf injury at the start of the season and then missing the final seven games of the season with a wrist injury. In 2024, Burrow stayed healthy all season and played at an MVP level, completing 70.6% of his passes for an average of 7.54 YPA, 43 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, but the rest of this team struggled, particularly their defense, which ranked 17th in yards per play allowed and 28th in first down rate allowed.

In the 2020 and 2021 drafts, the Bengals got Joe Burrow and his elite wide receiver duo of JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins, but, since then, they have drafted poorly. Between 2022-2024, the Bengals had ten picks in the first three rounds and, thus far, none of them have developed into an above average starter, with eight of those ten picks being used on the defensive side of the ball. The result is a very top-heavy roster. The Bengals do have one other high-level player, edge defender Trey Hendrickson, but he is going into an age 31 contract year and, thus far, the Bengals have been unwilling to give him the contract he is asking for, which could result in the Bengals opting to trade him before the season starts, even though doing so would further weaken their defense.

Burrow, Chase, and Higgins are at least signed long-term, but the Bengals ended up having to pay Chase and Higgins significantly more this off-season than they would have if they had signed them last off-season. Chase and Higgins received contracts worth 40.25 million annually and 28.75 million annually respectively, making them the 1st highest and 9th highest paid wide receivers in the league in terms of annual value. Between those contracts and Joe Burrow’s 55 million annual contract, tied for second highest among quarterbacks, the Bengals are paying a lot of money to their three best players and, if they keep Hendrickson, that will be another massive contract on the books. For this team to be consistently competitive, they will need the rest of this roster to be filled out by talented players on rookie contracts, but the Bengals’ recent history of poor drafting has prevented that.

Burrow should at least continue playing at a high level in 2025, especially since he’s keeping his top two wide receivers. Over the past four seasons, Burrow has completed 69.2% of his passes for an average of 7.61 YPA, 127 touchdowns, and 41 interceptions in 59 starts. Still very much in his prime, going into his age 29 season, Burrow should continue playing at a similar level in 2025 and beyond. The Bengals also have a good backup in Jake Browning, who only has seven career starts, all of which came in 2023, but he showed the ability to run this offense effectively, completing 70.4% of his passes for an average of 7.97 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. It’s a small sample size, but Browning seems like a useful backup to have, though obviously the Bengals would be in a lot of trouble if Burrow suffered a significant injury.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

JaMarr Chase had the best season of his career in 2024, winning the receiving triple crown with a 127/1708/17 slash line on 175 targets, while averaging 2.41 yards per route run, tied for seventh among eligible wide receivers. That didn’t come out of nowhere either, as he averaged a 101/1404/11 slash line per 17 games with 2.19 yards per route run in his first three seasons in the league. Still only going into his age 25 season, the 2021 5th overall pick could easily be one of the best wide receivers in the league for years to come. 

Higgins, meanwhile, had the second best season of his 5-year career in 2024, in terms of yards per game (75.9) and yards per route run (2.05), but he did miss five games with injury, which limited him to a 73/911/10 slash line on 109 targets. Injuries have been a concern for him for much of his career, as he’s missed at least three games in three of his five seasons in the league, including a 2021 season in which he had a 74/1091/6 slash line on 110 targets in just 14 games, giving him a career high 77.9 yards per game, in addition to having a career high 2.26 yards per route run that season. In total, he has averaged a 80/1116/8 slash line per 17 games with 1.95 yards per route run in his career and, still only in his age 26 season, coming off one of the best seasons of his career, he could easily exceed those averages again in 2025, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if he missed more time due to injury.

The rest of this wide receiver depth chart, however, is an example of the lack of depth on this roster. Andrei Iosivas was the #3 wide receiver last season, but he had just a 36/479/6 slash line on 61 targets, while averaging 0.84 yards per route run, similar to the 0.77 yards per route run that the 2023 6th round pick averaged in a smaller role as a rookie. Iosivas didn’t even step up in Higgins’ absence, with just 8 catches for 72 yards and 3 touchdowns in the five games that Higgins missed, games in which the Bengals went just 1-4. 

The Bengals used a third round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Jermaine Burton, who they were hoping would become the #3 receiver long-term, but he didn’t gain the trust of the coaching staff and barely played as a rookie, seeing just 131 snaps in 14 games, while averaging just 1.11 yards per route run when he did play. He still has a lot of upside though and could take a step forward in his second season in the league, but he’ll probably still start the season as the Bengals’ #4 wide receiver, despite Iosivas’ struggles as the #3 last season.

The Bengals did at least get a solid season out of starting tight end Mike Gesicki, who had a 65/655/2 slash line on 83 targets, while averaging 1.58 yards per route run. Gesicki also had slash lines of 53/703/6 and 73/780/2 and with the Dolphins in 2020 and 2021 respectively, while averaging a combined 1.52 yards per route run, but he fell to slash lines of 32/362/5 and 29/244/2 in 2022 and 2023 respectively, while averaging a combined 0.87 yards per route run. 

However, those struggles can easily be blamed on playing in an offense that didn’t use the tight end much in the passing game in Miami in 2022 and then playing on a bad offense in New England in 2023. His career seemed to get back on track in 2024 now in a more effective and tight end friendly offense in Cincinnati and he could remain a solid receiving tight end in 2025, though it is worth noting he is going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon.

The Bengals don’t have bad depth at tight end, but all of their other tight ends have their issues. Tanner Hudson has averaged 1.66 yards per route run over the past two seasons, but plays sparingly and is now heading into his age 31 season. Erick All, a 2024 4th round pick, averaged 1.48 yards per route run as a rookie, but had his rookie season ended by a torn ACL after 231 snaps in nine games, which, coupled with his collegiate injury history, dampens his long-term projection and reportedly could cost him the entire 2025 season. 

Drew Sample ranked second on the team in routes run from the tight end spot last season, but he averaged just 0.46 yards per route run last season and has averaged just 0.73 yards per route run in six seasons in the league, so he would be best as a blocking specialist. The Bengals have a great wide receiver duo, probably the best in the league, and tight end Mike Gesicki is a good third option, but the rest of this group leaves something to be desired, which affects their overall grade slightly.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Probably the best player to come out of the Bengals’ recent drafts is running back Chase Brown, a 5th round pick in 2023. Brown started the 2024 season in a timeshare with veteran Zach Moss, after playing sparingly (93 snaps) as a rookie, but Moss went down for the season in week 8, leaving Chase Brown to have a heavy usage the rest of the way, averaging 23.6 touches (18.9 carries, 4.7 catches) per game in eight games without Moss, as compared to 11.8 touches (9.8 carries, 2.0 catches) per game in the eight games that Moss played.

Moss is set to return in 2025, but Brown drastically outplayed him last season, averaging 4.32 YPC to Moss’ 3.27 YPC, so it seems highly unlikely that they will go back to splitting carries, leaving Moss as purely a change of pace backup. Moss does have some bounce back potential, as the 2020 3rd round pick averaged 4.29 YPC on 484 carries in his first four seasons in the league, prior to struggling in 2024, but, even if he bounces back, he is best as a backup. He’s also missed at least three games due to injury in all five seasons in the league, with 23 games missed total.

The Bengals also added Samaje Perine in free agency and, while he will probably finish third on the team in carries, having averaged just 59.3 carries per season and 4.05 yards per carry in eight seasons in the league, he is a useful pass catcher, averaging 1.40 yards per route run as a receiver in his career, as opposed 0.85 for Moss, so he could be used in obvious passing situations and cut into Brown’s passing game opportunities, though Brown also has averaged 1.38 yards per route run in his career and should continue having a significant passing down role. Brown won’t see the same usage he had down the stretch last season, with Moss back from injury to spell him on early downs and Perine added to spell him on passing downs, but Brown is still the clear feature back, a role he should be at least solid in. 

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

As much of a problem as the Bengals’ defense was last season and figures to still be in 2025, the Bengals’ offensive line is arguably just as big of a problem. Burrow obviously benefits significantly from the weapons he has in the passing game, but, even with those weapons taken into account, his production is especially impressive when you consider the offensive line he has in front of him. Last season, they ranked 29th in both PFF pass block grade and PFF run block grade and, going into 2025, there isn’t much reason for optimism.

One potential reason for optimism is the likelihood that they will get better seasons from their two starting tackles, Orlando Brown and Amarius Mims. They finished last season with PFF grades of 58.2 and 57.8 respectively, but Mims is a 2024 1st round pick who could take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025, while Brown had previously never had a PFF grade worse than 66.1 in a season, with four seasons above 70 in his previous six seasons. Still only going into his age 29 season, Brown has obvious bounce back potential, especially if he is healthier, after missing six games last season. Even Mims and Brown don’t improve in 2025, both are locked into starting roles because the best alternative is Cody Ford, who has finished below 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including a 50.6 PFF grade across 688 snaps in 2024.

Even if Mims and/or Brown are better in 2024 though, the Bengals still have a concerning situation on the interior of the offensive line. Cordell Volson and Alex Cappa were the primary starting guards last season and finished with PFF grades of 59.3 and 50.5 respectively. Cappa is no longer with the team, but his replacement Lucas Patrick is unlikely to be significantly better. Patrick had a decent 64.6 PFF grade last season, but that came in just 10 starts. Additionally, that was one of just two seasons out of nine seasons in the league in which he has finished above 60 on PFF, and he’s now going into his age 32 season. He’s also never made more than 15 starts in a season, with just 64 starts in nine seasons in the league, due to injuries and ineffectiveness, so he’s a desperation option as a season-long starter.

Volson, meanwhile, has made 48 starts in three seasons in the league since the Bengals took him in the 4th round pick in 2022, but he has finished with PFF grades in the 50s in all three seasons and, already in his age 27 season, he is unlikely to be better in 2025. The Bengals did use a third round pick in this year’s draft on Dylan Fairchild, who could push either Patrick or Volson for their starting job, but it’s far from a guarantee that he would be any better as a rookie.

Meanwhile at center, Ted Karras was the Bengals’ only regular starter to finish last season with a PFF grade above 60 and he has never finished below 60 on PFF in any of his nine seasons in the league, while starting 94 out of a 100 possible games over the past six seasons, but his 64.1 PFF grade in 2024 was still underwhelming and now he’s heading into his age 32 season, so he could decline in 2025. Overall, this still looks like a very underwhelming offensive line.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, Trey Hendrickson is by far the Bengals’ best defensive player. He isn’t a good run defender, but he has finished above 80 overall on PFF in three straight seasons despite his lack of run defense because he has finished above 90 in pass rush grade on PFF in each of those three seasons, while totaling 43 sacks, 48 hits, and a 16.4% pressure rate in 49 games. He also combined for 27.5 sacks, 26 hits, and a 14.8% pressure rate in 31 games from 2020-2021, so he has five straight seasons of elite pass rush on his resume. His age is a concern, now going into his age 31 season, and there is a chance he isn’t even on the Bengals’ roster this season if they can’t come to terms with him on an extension, but, if he is on the roster, he should remain a very valuable edge defender even if he does decline, as he would be declining from such a high base point.

Aside from Hendrickson, the rest of this edge defender group was a big problem in 2024, as their next three edge defenders in terms of snaps played, Joseph Ossai (573 snaps), Sam Hubbard (521 snaps), and Myles Murphy (353 snaps), finished with PFF grades of 58.3, 58.9, and 56.5 respectively. Hubbard retired this off-season and will essentially be replaced by first round pick Shemar Stewart, who has a massive upside, but who is extremely raw and also currently involved in his own contract dispute with the team. Even if Stewart eventually comes to terms with the Bengals, which seems likely, given Stewart’s lack of options, he will still have missed valuable off-season work, which is especially a concern for a player who is so raw. I wouldn’t expect him to have a significant positive contribution in year one.

Myles Murphy is also a recent first round pick, selected 29th overall in 2023, but he has been a bust thus far in his career, finishing with PFF grades in the 50s in both seasons in the league, while averaging just 21.9 snaps per game. Equally ineffective as a run stopper and pass rusher, Murphy has just 3 sacks, 3 hits, and a 9.2% pressure rate in 30 career games. The good news is he is still only going into his age 23 season and has significant untapped upside, so he could take a step forward, potentially a big step forward, in his third season in the league in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee.

Ossai, meanwhile, is a 2021 3rd round pick and will remain involved in the Bengals’ edge defender rotation in 2025. He did have a 68.4 PFF grade in 2023, but that came on just 177 snaps and it’s his only season above 60 on PFF in his career. Also a poor run defender, Ossai has managed just 9.5 sacks, 22 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate in 47 career games. He’s also still relatively young, going into his age 25 season in 2025, so he could also have untapped upside and take a step forward this season, but that seems even less likely than Murphy taking a step forward. 

The Bengals also have 2021 4th round pick Cam Sample, who missed all of last season with a torn achilles, but who could be part of the rotation at the edge defender position in 2025. Sample was underwhelming in his first two seasons in the league in 2021 and 2022, with PFF grades of 52.1 and 58.0 on snap counts of 310 and 411 respectively, but he did take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2023, with a 61.6 PFF grade across 375 snaps, though obviously that’s a small sample size and his 2024 injury complicates matters significantly. Stewart, Murphy, and Ossai have potential and it seems likely at least one will contribute in a significant way in 2025, but this is still an underwhelming position group outside of Trey Hendrickson, who significantly elevates the overall grade of this group for now, but might not even be on their final roster.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Outside of Hendrickson, the Bengals’ best defensive player might be interior defender BJ Hill, who had a 70.2 PFF grade across 710 snaps last season, his seventh season above 65 on PFF in seven seasons in the league, including four seasons above 70. Equally reliable as a run stopper and pass rusher, Hill has 23.5 sacks, 43 hits, and a 7.7% pressure rate in 112 career games. His age is a concern, as he’s now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but chances are he’ll remain at least a capable every down player in 2025.

Hill was the only Bengals interior defender to finish above 60 on PFF last season, but the Bengals do at least have a pair of second year players who were highly drafted and could take a step forward, as 2024 2nd round pick Kris Jenkins had a 45.4 PFF grade across 496 snaps as a rookie and 2024 3rd round pick McKinnley Jackson had a 53.0 PFF grade across 248 snaps as a rookie. It’s not a guarantee that either one improves in 2025, but there is a good chance at least one of them does, even if only to the level of being a capable rotational player.

The Bengals also added veteran TJ Slaton to the mix in free agency, but he’s an underwhelming option. The 6-5 330 pounder had decent years in 2022 and 2023, with PFF grades of 61.7 and 65.1 on snap counts of 333 and 627 respectively, primarily due to solid run defense, but he’s never been a good pass rusher, with a career pressure rate of 5.0%, and in 2024 he struggled as a run defender too, leading to a 45.3 PFF overall grade across 427 snaps. He has some bounce back potential as a situational run stopper, but he’s still an underwhelming option at a position group that still looks underwhelming overall.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

Top linebacker Logan Wilson is the other option for the Bengals’ best defensive player aside from Hendrickson. He had a solid 72.4 PFF grade in 2024, but he got hurt after 743 snaps in 11 games and missed the rest of the season, which was a huge blow to this defense. He’s been a solid every down linebacker for years though, with PFF grades of 72.7 and 62.6 on snap counts of 954 and 1,068 in 2022 and 2023 as well, and, still only in his age 29 season, he should remain a solid every down linebacker in 2025.

He’ll probably start next to second round rookie Demetrius Knight. Knight replaces Germaine Pratt, who had a 60.6 PFF grade across 1,075 snaps last season. Knight has a higher upside than Pratt, but isn’t necessarily an upgrade over Pratt in the short-term. The Bengals also have 4th round rookie Carter Barrett and veteran free agent addition Oren Burks, but Barrett is unlikely to make a significant positive impact as a rookie, while Burks has flashed potential with PFF grades of 79.2, 71.3, and 83.0 over the past three seasons, but only on snap counts of 156, 326, and 147 and he’s now going into his age 30 season, having started just 17 of 108 career games, so he is best as backup. This isn’t a bad position group as long as Logan Wilson stays healthy, but it isn’t a particularly good one either.

Grade: B

Cornerbacks

Slot cornerback Mike Hilton was the Bengals’ highest rated cornerback by a wide margin last season, with a 75.9 PFF grade across 737 snaps, but he wasn’t retained this off-season, ahead of his age 31 season in 2025, and he wasn’t replaced by a comparable veteran. Instead, the Bengals’ cornerback depth group is led by a bunch of recent draft picks that have yet to develop. Dax Hill probably has the highest upside of the bunch. 

A 2022 first round pick, Hill began his career at safety and struggled, playing just 130 mediocre snaps as a rookie and then receiving a 50.9 PFF grade across 1,089 snaps upon becoming a starter in 2023, but he seemed to do better when he moved to cornerback in 2024, with a 68.2 PFF grade, although that came in a very small sample size, as his season was ended by a torn ACL after 262 snaps in five games. Hill’s injury recovery complicates his long-term projection even more, but he’s still only going into his age 25 season and has always had talent, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he picked up where he left off in 2024, or even if he took another step forward.

DJ Turner was a second round pick in 2023. He struggled as a rookie with a 51.5 PFF grade across 827 snaps, but he took a step forward in his second season in the league in 2024 with a 67.8 PFF grade, albeit across only 508 snaps before his season was also ended by injury. He’s also an unproven commodity, but he has the talent to pick up where he left off before getting hurt last season, or even to get better, though obviously that’s not a guarantee.

Cam Taylor-Britt, meanwhile, was a second round pick in 2022. He also struggled as a rookie, with a 56.1 PFF grade across 590 snaps, but he has been better over the past two seasons, though largely by default, with PFF grades of 64.5 and 63.6, while starting all 29 games he has played. Taylor-Britt, Turner, and Hill all have upside, but none of them have proven themselves as a consistently above average starter yet and there is no guarantee that happens in 2025. Meanwhile, Josh Newton, a 2024 5th round pick who had a 60.9 PFF grade across 504 snaps as a rookie, is likely to be their primary depth option.

At safety, the Bengals will start Geno Stone and Jordan Battle, who, a year ago, looked like they would be a good safety duo. A 7th round pick in 2020, Stone flashed potential with a 72.2 PFF grade across 450 snaps in 2022 and then seemingly broke out as an above average starter in 2023, with a 71.9 PFF grade across 950 snaps, but he declined significantly to a 53.1 PFF grade across 1,100 snaps in 2024. He’s still only going into his age 26 season and has bounce back potential, but there is no guarantee he returns to his 2023 form.

Battle, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2023 and flashed a lot of potential as a rookie with a 82.5 PFF grade across 524 snaps, but he struggled in 2024 with a 53.1 PFF grade and ultimately spent his second season in the league primarily as a backup, playing just 464 snaps in 15 games behind veteran Vonn Bell, who had a 62.1 PFF grade across 705 snaps. Bell is no longer with the team, giving Battle a clear path to a starting job and he still has a high upside, only going into his age 25 season, but it’s tough to know what to expect from him, given the disparity between how he played in 2023 and how he played in 2024.

If Stone and Battle don’t bounce back, the Bengals don’t really have another good option. The only other safeties on the roster who have ever played a snap are 2022 5th round pick Tycan Anderson, who has played just one snap in his career, and 2024 7th round pick Daijahn Anthony, who has played just 12 snaps. They could move Hill back to safety if needed, but that would hurt their depth at cornerback and he has shown himself to be better at cornerback than safety anyway. Overall, this secondary has some upside, but also a lot of downside.

Grade: B-

Kicker

Evan McPherson struggled as the Bengals’ kicker last season, costing the Bengals 6.33 points compared to average, while also missing five games due to injury. He has been better in the past though, with 11.10 points above average in 2021 and 4.05 points above average in 2023, though he did also cost the Bengals 2.95 points compared to average in 2022. Still, he has been overall a solid kicker in his four seasons in the league and he is still only going into his age 26 season.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The 2025 Bengals are a very similar team to the 2024 Bengals, a top-heavy roster with minimal depth behind their few stars. If they end up having to trade Trey Hendrickson, that problem will be even worse. However, if they keep Hendrickson, the Bengals could still sneak into the post-season, something they almost did in 2024. The Bengals are unlikely to make a deep playoff run even if they make the post-season though.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in AFC North

Quarterback

The Bengals had a disappointing last place season in 2023, but the situation is a lot better than that sounds. For one, the Bengals finished last place in the toughest division in the NFL in the AFC North and they actually finished above .500 with a 9-8 record, including a 8-3 record outside of the division. That record outside of the division included a 3-2 record against playoff qualifiers, with victories over the Rams, 49ers, and Bills. The Bengals also did this despite having significant injuries at the quarterback position on offense, and a defense that ranked just 23rd in DVOA.

I will get into why their defense should be better later, but it’s not hard to see how they are likely to have better health at the quarterback position. Joe Burrow, normally one of the best quarterbacks in the league, struggled in the first four games of the season while playing through a calf injury, then went on an impressive 5-game stretch, during which the Bengals went 4-1, with wins against the 49ers and Bills, and then Burrow injured his wrist during their week 10 loss to the Ravens and missed the remainder of the season.

Despite really only having Burrow healthy for five games last season, the Bengals still ranked 11th in offensive DVOA. Part of that is because of the play of backup quarterback Jake Browning, who completed 70.4% of his passes for an average of 7.97 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in 7 starts, but, as well as Browning played, he was previously a career backup who never thrown a pass in his first four seasons in the league, after going undrafted in 2019, so Browning benefited significantly from the talent around him.

Burrow remains an injury concern, dealing with some ailment in three of four seasons in the league, with the exception being a 2021 campaign in which he led the Bengals to the Super Bowl, but as long as Burrow is healthy, he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. During his Super Bowl season, Burrow completed 70.4% of his passes for an average of 8.87 YPA, 34 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He then followed that up with 68.3% completion, 7.38 YPA, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 2022, despite missing most of the off-season due to appendix surgery. Then in his 5-game healthy stretch in 2023, Burrow completed 74.1% of his passes for an average of 7.51 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. 

Still very much in his prime in his age 28 season, the upside is obvious for Burrow in 2024 if he can stay healthy, especially when you consider how well a career backup was able to play in his absence last season. Browning, meanwhile, remains as the top backup and, while he might not be as good this season as he was in a limited stretch last season, he’s still a good insurance policy to have and he should be capable of holding down the fort for a few games if needed in case of another Burrow injury. Overall, this is one of the most enviable quarterback rooms in the league, even if you take into account Burrow’s durability issues. 

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The best part of the Bengals’ solid offensive supporting cast is their receiving corps, led by Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Despite the Bengals’ quarterback play not being as good as he’s used to, Ja’Marr Chase still had a 100/1216/7 slash line and a 2.02 yards per route run average in 2023. This comes after the 2021 5th overall pick had a 81/1455/13 slash line and a 2.51 yards per route run average as a rookie and a 87/1046/9 slash line and a 2.02 yards per route run average in his second season in the league in 2022. Still only in his age 24 season, Chase’s best years could still be ahead of him and he looks likely to be one of the best wide receivers in the league for years to come. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him set new career highs in 2024.

Higgins, on the other hand, had a down year in 2023, missing 5 games with injury and totaling a 42/656/5 slash line with a 1.66 yards per route run average in 12 games. A 2020 2nd round pick, Higgins averaged a 72/1009/6 slash line per season with 2.00 yards per route run in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season though and, still only in his age 25 season, he has obvious bounce back potential in 2024 if both he and Burrow stay healthy. Despite his down year in 2023, the Bengals still franchise tagged him at a price of 21.816 million this off-season, as he has too much upside when healthy to be allowed to leave for nothing.

Third receiver Tyler Boyd also had a down year, with a 67/667/2 slash line and a 1.15 yards per route run average, and with Boyd heading into his age 30 season, the Bengals let him leave as a free agent this off-season. Without a veteran being added to replace Boyd, the Bengals will likely give the #3 receiver job to either incumbent #4 receiver Trenton Irwin or to third round rookie Jermaine Burton. Irwin was mediocre with a 25/316/1 slash line and a 1.20 yards per route run average in limited action last season, both of which were career highs for the 2019 undrafted free agent, so he would likely struggle if he won the #3 receiver job. Burton, on the other hand, has more upside, but could struggle through growing pains as a rookie. 

The Bengals also have a pair of second year wide receivers who could take a step forward this season, 2023 4th round pick Charlie Jones, who showed some promise on 44 snaps as a rookie with a 2.13 yards per route run average, and 2023 6th round Andrei Iosivas, who struggled on 266 snaps as a rookie with a 0.76 yards per route run average. Some of the Bengals’ third receiver options have upside, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if whoever wins the that third receiver job is underwhelming in 2024.

At tight end, the Bengals gave playing time to four tight ends last season, Drew Sample (496 snaps), Irv Smith (330 snaps), Tanner Hudson (276 snaps), and Mitchell Wilcox (229 snaps). Three of those tight ends struggled, with Sample posting a 22/163/2 slash line with a 0.86 yards per route run average, Smith posting a 18/115/1 slash line with a 0.51 yards per route run average, and Wilcox posting a 9/56/0 slash line with a 0.81 yards per route run average. Tanner Hudson, on the other hand, had a 39/352/1 slash line with a 1.56 yards per route run average and he earned more playing time down the stretch as a result, with a 35/304/1 slash line in the final 10 games of the season.

That’s a small sample size though and Hudson is a 2018 undrafted free agent who had caught just 15 passes in his career prior to last season and who is now going into his age 30 season, so there is a lot of reason to believe that Hudson is unlikely to translate that impressive play into a larger season-long role if given one in 2024. The Bengals also brought in competition for Hudson’s job as the top pass catching tight end, signing veteran Mike Gesicki in free agency and using a 4th round pick on Erick All.

All is probably too raw to have a significant role as a rookie, but Gesicki has a good chance to win the top pass catching tight end job just based on experience. Gesicki had slash lines of 53/703/6 with 1.60 yards per route run and 73/780/2 with 1.45 yards per route run in 2020 and 2021 respectively, but he fell to 32/362/5 with 1.02 yards per route run in 2022 and 29/243/2 with 0.72 yards per route run in 2023. That being said, Gesicki was on a Miami offense that didn’t throw much to tight ends in 2022, while last season he spent on a terrible New England offense, so Gesicki, who is only in his age 29 season, could have some bounce back potential in 2024, now on a much better offense. Tanner Hudson will play a role, but I would guess that Gesicki will be the top pass catching tight end.

The Bengals also brought back veteran Drew Sample as a blocking tight end. He has just 0.81 yards per route run in his career and won’t play a big role in the passing game this season behind Gesicki and Hudson, but Sample is an above average run blocker and will be useful to the Bengals when they run the ball out of two tight end sets. Led by Chase and Higgins, one of the best wide receiver duos in the league, the Bengals have an impressive receiving corps, though there is some concern about who the complementary options behind Chase and Higgins are and how well they’ll perform.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Bengals’ running game was underwhelming last season, ranking 22nd in the NFL with 3.99 yards per carry. Feature back Joe Mixon had a solid 49.4% carry success rate, but only had 16.2% of his yardage on 8 carries of 15+ yards and, as a result, averaged just 4.02 yards per carry on 257 carries. With Mixon going into his age 28 season and owed 6.1 million in 2024, the Bengals traded him to the Texans for a late round pick this off-season and used the money they saved to give a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal to Zack Moss, who also had a solid 49.2% carry success rate last season, but additionally had 25.5% of his carries on 7 carries of 15+ yards.

Moss isn’t as experienced as Mixon, as he has averaged just 121 carries per season in four seasons in the league, with the 183 he had last season being a career high, but he has a solid 4.29 YPC and a solid 49.2% carry success rate in his career and should at least be a good lead back, even if he doesn’t play the feature back role that Joe Mixon did. Chase Brown, a 2023 5th round pick, was the #2 back last season and will remain in that role this season. He only had 44 carries behind Mixon, but that will likely increase, perhaps significantly, in 2024 with Mixon gone. Brown had a decent 4.07 YPC last season and could be ready for a bigger role, now in his second season in the league.

Brown also figures to take on a bigger passing game role, as that is where Mixon will be missed the most, averaging 1.21 yards per route run in his career, as opposed to just 0.77 for Moss. Brown actually had a 4.46 yards per route run average as a rookie and, even though that came in a very limited sample size, he also had 27 catches in his final collegiate season and has the upside to be a good pass catching option out of the backfield at the professional level. Expect Moss to be the lead back with Brown operating as a change of pace back and a passing down complement.

Depth is a concern at the running back position behind Moss and Brown. Trayveon Williams was a 2019 6th round pick, but has just 77 touches in five seasons in the league, while Chris Evans is a 2021 6th round pick with 38 touches in three seasons in the league. Both would likely be overstretched in a big role in the absence of either Moss or Brown for an extended period of time. Overall, this is an underwhelming backfield, but the top duo of Zack Moss and Chase Brown could be effective, as long as Brown is able to spell Moss frequently enough as a runner and contribute as the primary passing down back.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Bengals’ offensive line was also underwhelming last season. Two of their five starters finished below 60 on PFF, left guard Cordell Volson, who had a 58.3 PFF grade, and right tackle Jonah Williams, who had a 58.5 PFF grade. Williams was allowed to walk as a free agent this off-season and the Bengals should get better play out of his replacement Trent Brown, who they signed to a 1-year, 4.75 million dollar deal. Brown is going into his age 31 season and has had durability issues throughout his career, especially over the past five seasons, when he has missed 30 games, but he’s also surpassed 60 on PFF in all nine seasons in the league, including three seasons above 70.

Brown’s 80.2 PFF grade in 2023 was actually a career high, despite being on the wrong side of 30. It only came in 8 starts and he’s highly unlikely to repeat the best season of his career again in 2024, given his age, but he still has a good chance to be at least a solid starter, which would make him an obvious upgrade on Jonah Williams. Brown will probably miss at least some time with injury at some point this season, only playing making every start in a season twice in his career, but the Bengals prepared for that by using their first round pick on Amarius Mims, who enters the league very raw, but is still overqualified to be a swing tackle and has a huge upside long-term. He may have some rookie year growing pains, but he has a good chance to fill in adequately for a few games if needed.

The Bengals’ other starter who struggled last season, Cordell Volson, will likely remain in that role. The 2022 4th round pick has struggled through two seasons in the league, making 33 starts, but finishing with PFF grades in the 50s in both seasons. However, the Bengals lack another good option, with their best alternative likely being Jackson Carman, a 2021 2nd round pick who entered the league with a lot of potential, but struggled mightily with a 56.3 PFF grade in 6 starts as a rookie and then just 16 snaps in the two seasons since.

Orlando Brown remains the starter at left tackle and he has a good chance to have a better season in 2024 than he did in 2023. Brown wasn’t bad last season, but his 66.1 PFF grade was the lowest of his 6-year career and he had previously finished above 70 on PFF in four straight seasons. With 92 starts in six seasons in the league, Brown is a very experienced option who is unlikely to be beginning a permanent decline, still only in his age 28 season, so he has a good chance to bounce back at least somewhat in 2024.

Alex Cappa and Ted Karras remain at right guard and center respectively. Cappa is a solid starter who is still relatively young in his age 29 season, so he has a good chance to continue playing the way he has for the past four seasons, when he has made all 66 starts, while receiving PFF grades of 69.0, 73.4, 67.6, and 64.9. Karras, on the other hand, is now in his age 31 season and could start to decline. 

Karras has PFF grades of 64.5, 65.4, 72.2, 62.6, and 67.4 over the past five seasons, while making 77 starts, but he doesn’t have a huge margin for error if he begins to decline, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he ended up being somewhat of a liability in 2024. He could remain a solid starter, but his age is a concern. He’ll be backed up by 2021 5th round pick Trey Hill, who has struggled across 217 snaps in three seasons in the league, so Karras should remain the starter no matter what. Overall, this offensive line should be better than a year ago, but they’re still unlikely to be much more than a middling group. 

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Bengals’ defense was below average last season, but they did have some standout players. Probably their best player was edge defender Trey Hendrickson, who had a 82.3 PFF grade across 742 snaps, particularly excelling as a pass rusher, with 17.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 16.8% pressure rate. That’s not out of character for Hendrickson, who has finished above 70 on PFF in four straight seasons, with his career best year coming in 2022 when he had a 85.0 PFF grade. 

Overall, Hendrickson has 53 sacks, 58 hits, and a 15.8% pressure rate in 63 games over those four seasons, ranking 3rd in the NFL in sacks over that stretch, only behind Defensive Player of the Year winners TJ Watt and Myles Garrett. Hendrickson is now going into his age 30 season and there’s some reason to be concerned that he’ll decline, but, even if he does, he’s starting from a very high base point and should remain a big asset for this defense in 2024.

The rest of this position group was underwhelming a year ago, but there is some reason for optimism this year. Sam Hubbard received a 61.9 PFF grade across 713 snaps last season, but he has been better in the past, as last season was a career worst season-long grade for the 6-year veteran. Hubbard has never been better than a 72.4 PFF grade for a season and he’s a better run stopper than pass rusher, with 36.5 sacks, 60 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 90 career games, but the Bengals do have 2023 1st round pick Myles Murphy waiting in the wings for a bigger role, which will allow Hubbard to focus on early down plays and keep him fresher, which should help him have a bounce back season.

Murphy didn’t do much as a rookie, with a 56.2 PFF grade across 304 snaps and a 9.1% pressure rate, but he has a high upside and could easily take a big step forward in his second season of the league. Murphy taking a step forward and Hubbard bouncing back is part of the reason the Bengals could be better defensively. The Bengals also have Cam Sample and Joseph Ossai, who played small roles last season, seeing 375 snaps and 177 snaps respectively, and both will likely see similar roles this season.

Sample and Ossai were drafted in the 4th and 3rd round respectively in 2021. Sample struggled in limited action in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 52.1 and 58.0 on snap counts of 310 and 411 respectively, while totaling a 7.2% pressure rate, but he took a step forward with a 61.6 PFF grade and a 10.6% pressure rate in 2023. Ossai, meanwhile, missed his entire rookie season, struggled with a 55.3 PFF grade in 2022, but seemingly took a step forward with a 68.4 PFF grade in 2023, albiet in very limited action. 

Both Sample and Ossai are still young, in their age 25 and age 24 seasons, and they have a good chance to continue being at least decent in small roles, but both could struggle if forced into bigger roles by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. This is the same group of edge defenders as a year ago, but they could be better if Myles Murphy takes a step forward in his second season in the league and if Sam Hubbard bounces back, likely in a smaller role with Murphy likely to take a step forward.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Bengals’ defense will miss free agent departure DJ Reader, who was their top interior defender a year ago, with a 82.2 PFF grade, excelling against the run and adding 1 sack, 6 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate as a pass rusher. The Bengals replaced him with veteran Sheldon Rankins on a 2-year, 24.5 million dollar deal. Rankins is not nearly as good as Reader as a run stopper, finishing below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in three of the past four seasons, but he could be an upgrade as a pass rusher, with 29.5 sacks, 38 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate in 109 career games, including 6 sacks, 4 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 15 games last season. Rankins is now heading into his age 30 season and could start declining, but he has a good chance to at least remain an above average interior pass rusher for another season.

BJ Hill remains as the other starter. He wasn’t as good as Reader, but he still had a solid 67.7 PFF grade, with decent play both as a run stopper and a pass rusher, totaling 4.5 sacks, 14 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate, his 6th season over 60 on PFF in as many seasons in the league, with three seasons over 70. In total, he has 20.5 sacks, 39 hits, and a 7.7% pressure rate in 97 career games. Hill was a rotational player early in his career, but has seen snap counts of 815 and 776 over the past two seasons. Still only in his age 28 season, he should remain a solid starter on a high snap count again in 2024. 

The Bengals also used second and third round picks on the interior defender position this off-season, taking Kris Jenkins first and then McKinnley Jackson later. Both will compete for top reserve roles with Zachary Carter, who struggled as the top reserve last season, with a 51.2 PFF grade across 500 snaps. Carter was a 3rd round pick in 2022, but he was even worse as a rookie, with a 32.1 PFF grade across 395 snaps. It’s possible he takes another step forward in year three in 2024, especially if takes on a smaller role that he is more suited for. Josh Tupou had a 52.1 PFF grade across 287 snaps last season as the #4 interior defender, so better depth was needed and the Bengals got that with a pair of promising rookies. This is a decent, but unspectacular position group overall.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Bengals’ linebacking corps remains the same as a year ago, which is not a bad thing because Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt were decent as every down linebackers with PFF grades of 62.6 and 63.3 on snap counts of 1,068 and 975. Akeem Davis-Gaither also returns as the top reserve, although he only played 98 snaps last season and has played just 847 snaps in four seasons in the league, so he would be a projection to a larger role if forced into one by an injury to Wilson or Pratt.

Wilson was a 3rd round pick in 2020. He struggled in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 54.7 and 53.9 on snap counts of 343 and 707, before taking a big step forward with a 72.7 PFF grade across 954 snaps in 2022. He wasn’t as good in 2023, but he seems to have at least established himself as a capable starting linebacker, with the upside for more if he can regain his 2022 form. Pratt, meanwhile, is a similar story, although his year-to-year swings have been even bigger, as the 2019 3rd round pick had PFF grades of 51.0, 41.5, and 47.0 across snap counts of 437, 686, and 692 in his first three seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 80.6 PFF grade across 722 snaps in 2022 and then falling back to earth a little in 2023. He should at least remain a capable starter in 2024, with the upside for more. The Bengals are in decent shape at linebacker, especially if one of their two starters can find their 2022 form.

Grade: B

Secondary

The position group that should be most improved from a year ago and the biggest reason this defense should be better this year is the safety position. Nick Scott and Dax Hill started the season as starters last season, but both struggled, with PFF grades of 44.0 and 50.9. Scott was so bad he got benched for third round rookie Jordan Battle, who was a revelation in the second half of the season, with a 82.5 PFF grade across 524 snaps. That’s a small sample size, but Battle has a big upside and might not even need to start, with the Bengals signing Geno Stone and Vonn Bell to contracts worth 14 million over 2 years and 1.21 million over 1 year to replace Scott and also still retaining Dax Hill, who was a first round pick in 2022 and could be better in his third season in the league in 2024.

Stone should be locked into a starting job, after posting a 71.9 PFF grade across 950 snaps in 2023. Last season was Stone’s first as a starter and he was only a 7th round pick in 2020, but he also had a 71.4 PFF grade across 450 snaps in 2022, so his above average season as a starter in 2023 didn’t come out of nowhere. He’s still relatively unproven, but he’s also only going into his age 25 and could have further untapped upside. He seems likely to be the Bengals’ top safety. The other safety job will go to Bell, Battle, or Hill with a possibility of multiple of them playing significant roles this season. Battle and Hill both have upside, but Battle is still very inexperienced, while Hill was underwhelming in his only season as a starter thus far. 

Bell has plenty of experience, starting 106 of 122 games played in eight seasons in the league, and he’s mostly been a capable starter, with PFF grades over 60 in seven straight seasons, starting in his second season in the league in 2017. He’s now going into his age 30 season and had to settle for the veteran’s minimum this season, but he’s a versatile player who could play linebacker or slot cornerback, so I would expect him to at least have some role in sub packages. The Bengals have quickly turned a big position of weakness at safety into a strength, with four capable starting options, two of which have significant upsides, and a top safety in Geno Stone who looks likely to be an above average starter.

At cornerback, the Bengals let veteran Chidobe Awuzie leave as a free agent this off-season. Awuzie only had a 62.6 PFF grade across 722 snaps, but he wasn’t bad and losing him without replacing him leaves the Bengals pretty thin at cornerback. Cam Taylor-Britt and DJ Turner were second round picks in 2022 and 2023 respectively and both are expected to take on bigger roles in Awuzie’s absence, now as the favorites to start at 17 games outside at cornerback, after being limited to 653 snaps and 827 snaps respectively in 2023. 

Taylor-Britt wasn’t bad last season, with a 64.5 PFF grade, a step forward from his rookie season when he had a 56.1 PFF grade across 590 snaps, but Taylor was a rookie last season and looked like it, with a 51.5 PFF grade. He could take a step forward in year two and Taylor-Britt could take a step forward as well, but that’s not a guarantee and, if Turner struggles or if Turner or Taylor-Britt get hurt, the only other options the Bengals have at outside cornerback are 5th round pick Josh Newton, 2023 7th round pick DJ Ivey, who played just 21 snaps as a rookie, or 2018 undrafted free agent Jalen Davis, a special teamer who had played just 281 defensive snaps in six seasons in the league. 

Fortunately, the Bengals still have slot cornerback Mike Hilton, even if he isn’t a realistic candidate to see action outside. Hilton is very undersized at 5-9 184, but excels on the slot, with PFF grades above 60 on PFF across an average of 670 snaps per season in seven seasons in the league, with four seasons above 70, including three straight from 2021-2023. Hilton is going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but, even if he does, he should remain at least a solid slot specialist. The Bengals are much better at safety than they were a year ago and should still get good play on the slot, but outside cornerback looks like it could be a position of weakness unless multiple young players step up.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Bengals went 9-8 last season, despite only having star quarterback Joe Burrow fully healthy and at his best for five games, despite playing in the toughest division in football, and despite having a below average defense. This season, Joe Burrow should be healthier for much more of the season, the division is still tough, but maybe not as tough as a year ago, and their defense should be slightly better if only by default. Put all of that together and the Bengals not only look like a safe bet to be a playoff team, but also a potential candidate to go from worst to first and win the AFC North. I would consider them on the short list of Super Bowl contenders as well, especially if they can win the division and secure at least one home playoff game.

Prediction: 11-6, 2nd in AFC North

Quarterback

In 2019, the Bengals finished with the worst record in the league at 2-14, securing them the #1 pick and elite quarterback prospect Joe Burrow. Burrow took his rookie year lumps on a mediocre team and had about half his season wiped out due to a torn ACL, leading to the Bengals once again being among the worst teams in the league at 4-11-1. However, the Bengals kept building their supporting cast around Burrow through free agency and the draft and Burrow’s play took off upon his return from injury in his second season in the league in 2021. 

In that first season back, Burrow led the Bengals solid 10-7 regular season record and then took the Bengals all the way to the Super Bowl, coming within a blown 4th quarter lead of winning the whole thing. The Bengals then followed that up with a 12-4-1 season in 2022 in which they narrowly lost in the AFC Championship game to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs, with their season ending just short of another Super Bowl appearance. This season looks likely to be another season in contention, with the Bengals returning most of the same roster from a year ago.

He has a lot of help, but quarterback Joe Burrow is obviously what makes this team go, completing 69.2% of his passes for 8.07 YPA, 69 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions over the past two seasons, while posting grades of 91.7 (2nd among quarterbacks) and 90.8 (3rd) respectively on PFF. Still only in his age 27 season, Burrow should remain one of the top quarterbacks in the league for years to come. The Bengals need to figure out a long-term extension with him, now eligible after three years in the league, but they do have two years before he could theoretically hit free agency and, while they will almost definitely have to give him a top of the market deal whenever he does sign, Burrow figures to be worth it long-term.

If Burrow happens to get hurt, the Bengals would obviously be in a lot of trouble, turning to veteran backup Trevor Siemian, who has a 81.1 QB rating in 30 career starts in 8 seasons in the league, since going in the 7th round in 2015. He’s not a terrible backup, but the Bengals obviously don’t want to see him in the game in meaningful situations, with one of the best quarterbacks in the league topping the depth chart.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Two of the biggest additions the Bengals have made around Joe Burrow in recent years is getting him a pair of talented young wide receivers to throw to, adding Tee Higgins in the 2nd round in 2020 and JaMarr Chase in the 1st round in 2021 to a receiving corps that already had Tyler Boyd, a former 1000+ yard receiver in his own right (2018 and 2019). Chase burst onto the scene with a 81/1455/13 slash line as a rookie and then he had a 87/1046/9 slash line in 2022 even though he was limited to 12 games by injury. 

Higgins, meanwhile, had a 67/908/6 slash line as a rookie, a 74/1091/6 slash line in 2021, and a 74/1029/7 slash line in 2022, giving the Bengals one of five wide receiver duos to both surpass 1000 yards receiving in 2022. On most teams, Higgins would be the #1 receiver, but he’s the de facto #2 wide receiver in Cincinnati behind Chase. With Chase and Higgins in only their age 23 and age 24 respectively, they should continue being high level players for years to come and it’s possible that both players could keep getting even better.

With Chase and Higgins coming in, Tyler Boyd has obviously had to take on a smaller role in recent years, but Boyd has still found ways to be productive, with slash lines of 79/841/4, 67/828/5, and 58/762/5 respectively over the past three seasons, with the last two coming on target totals of just 94 and 82. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Boyd in 2023, who would be a #2 and or even a #1 wide receiver on many other teams around the league.

The Bengals haven’t gotten much out of the tight end position in the past few years, with CJ Uzomah putting up a 49/493/5 slash line on 1.07 yards per route run as the starter in 2021 and Hayden Hurst putting up 52/414/2 on 1.07 yards per route run as the starter in 2022, and that figures to remain the same in 2023, with the Bengals only taking a flier on former Vikings tight end Irv Smith in free agency to replace Hurst this off-season. 

Smith was a 2nd round pick in 2019 and is still only in his age 25 season, so he has upside and was a worthwhile signing on a 1-year, 1.75 million dollar deal, but his career 1.12 yards per route run average is mediocre even for a tight end, he’s not a great blocker, and he’s missed 29 games with injury in four seasons in the league, so he might not contribute that much. The Bengals probably won’t need him to though, with the top-3 they have at the wide receiver position. Smith figures to be backed up by blocking specialist Drew Sample, who has just a 0.80 yards per route run average for his career.

The Bengals don’t have much need for depth at the wide receiver position, but an injury is always possible and, while 2019 undrafted free agent Trenton Irwin wasn’t horrible with a 1.22 yards per route run average in place of Chase last season, in the first real action of his career, the Bengals still wanted to add more depth at the position this off-season, using 4th and 6th round picks on wide receivers Charles Jones and Andrei Iosivas. Any of their reserves would likely be overmatched in a large role for an extended period of time, but the Bengals have as good of a top pass catching trio as any team in the league and, barring injuries, depth and tight end production won’t be needed much.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

While the Bengals have built their receiving corps through the draft, they have built their offensive line mostly through free agency. Last off-season, they added center Ted Karras (3 years, 18 million), right guard Alex Cappa (4 years, 35 million), and right tackle La’El Collins (3 years, 21 million) to an offensive line that was obviously a weakness in 2021 even with the Bengals making the Super Bowl. Cappa and Karras were solid in their first season in Cincinnati, with grades of 67.6 and 62.6 respectively, and, while Collins struggled with a 57.9 PFF grade, the Bengals tried again this off-season with former Chiefs tackle Orlando Brown, who they signed to a 4-year, 64.092 million dollar deal. 

Brown’s addition will move Collins to a swing tackle role, a role he’s to be overqualified for even after last year’s down year, as he has 86 career starts, isn’t totally over the hill in his age 30 season, and has surpassed 70 on PFF in three straight healthy seasons prior to 2022. He’s great depth to have, though he has missed 24 games due to injury over the past four seasons combined. While Collins played on the right side, Brown will continue playing left tackle like he did in Kansas City and he will push incumbent Jonah Williams over to right tackle. 

A first round pick in 2019, Williams hasn’t been a bad left tackle in his career, missing his whole rookie season with injury, but making 42 starts over the past three seasons combined, while receiving grades of 70.1, 77.1, and 61.2 respectively from PFF, and he didn’t take the news of Brown’s addition well, initially demanding a trade, understandable as he heads into the final year of his rookie deal without an extension and now will play a position with a lower market value. 

However, Williams is coming off of a down year and could benefit from a move to the right side, while Brown has consistently been an above average offensive tackle throughout his career, starting with 67.8 and 72.0 PFF grades as mostly a right tackle in 2018 and 2019 respectively and 76.5, 75.4, and 75.8 PFF grades as mostly a left tackle in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively, while never missing a game. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023 and he should prove to be a good value at the average annual salary the Bengals signed him at.

At right guard and center respectively, Cappa and Karras should have similar seasons as a year ago. Cappa was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and has exceeded 60 on PFF in all four seasons since becoming a starter in his second season in the league in 2019 (62 total starts in those four seasons), with his career best year being a 73.4 PFF grade in 2021. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Cappa should remain a solid, if unspectacular starting right guard. Karras, meanwhile, is similar, making 60 starts over the past 4 seasons, exceeding 60 on PFF all 4 times, with a career best 72.2 in 2021. He’s now in his age 30 season and could decline a little, in which case he could be a little bit of a liability, but he could also easily remain a capable starter at least, not totally over the hill at this point in this career.

The biggest weakness on this offensive line last season was left guard, as 4th round rookie Cordell Volson predictably struggled with a 51.6 grade in 16 starts. He could be better in year two, but that’s far from a guarantee and it’s possible he loses his job to Jackson Carman, a 2021 2nd round pick who was actually the starter as a rookie before Volson. Carman struggled as well, with a 56.3 PFF grade on 462 snaps, which relegated him to playing just 4 snaps as a reserve in year two, but he probably still has a higher upside than Volson and he could benefit from his year on the bench. Left guard could easily remain a position of weakness, but this is a solid offensive line aside from that, thanks primarily to recent free agent additions Orlando Brown, Alex Cappa, and Ted Karras.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

With this roster about to get more expensive in the next couple off-seasons, with cheap young players up for big extensions, it originally seemed like the Bengals might opt to cut highly paid highly back Joe Mixon this off-season, ahead of 10.1 million owed in 2023, with a concerning off-the-field situation that didn’t help matters. That seemed less likely when the Bengals let backup Samaje Perine (95 carries, 51 targets, 449 snaps played in 2022) walk in free agency without signing a replacement and then only used a 5th round pick in the draft on the position, taking Illinois’ Chase Brown, and ultimately Mixon is back with the the only team he’s ever known for his 7th season, on a restructured deal that pays him about 6 million this year, plus incentives. 

Mixon has handled heavy volume for this team, with 1314 carries and 231 catches in 80 games in his career, but he’s not really an elite running back who was worth the kind of big money he was getting before. His career 1.26 yards per route run average is helpful on a pass heavy team like the Bengals (1.47 yards per route run in 2022), but his 4.09 career yards per carry average is mediocre and, while he did rank 10th in carry success rate last season at 54%, suggesting he was more efficient than his 3.88 YPC average suggests, that’s also what you would expect from a running back on an offense this good and it’s unclear if Mixon is the kind of back who moves the needle on his own. 

That being said, he is in line for another big workload, with the Bengals seriously lacking other options at the position. Despite only being a 5th round pick, the rookie Brown could be the #2 running back as a rookie, with his top competition being 2019 6th round pick Trayveon Williams, who has 47 career carries, and 2021 6th round pick Chris Evans, who has 17 career carries. None of them figure to have much of a role outside of a few touches here and there, unless Mixon misses time with injury and gets suspended for his off-the-field incidents. Mixon isn’t an overly explosive back and the Bengals depth is a concern, but this isn’t a bad backfield. 

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Bengals have a similar group on defense as well this season. On the defensive line, the Bengals return all four starters and, at the edge defender position in particular, the Bengals also add first round pick Myles Murphy to a position where Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard are coming off of PFF grades of 85.0 and 72.4 respectively, but where better depth was needed. Murphy is also big enough at 6-5 268 to line up on the interior in sub packages, allowing the Bengals to get their best four pass rushers on the field together in sub packages.

Hendrickson was added by the Bengals two off-seasons ago on a 4-year, 60 million dollar deal, which has more than paid off. A 3rd round pick in 2017, Hendrickson was a risky signing because he was a one-year wonder with the Saints, showing potential early in his career, but only playing 274 snaps per season in his first three seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 72.1 PFF grade on 558 snaps in 2020, excelling as a pass rusher with 13.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 13.3% pressure rate. 

Hendrickson has continued playing at that level in his new home in Cincinnati though, proving not to be a one-year wonder, with a 72.8 PFF grade and 14 sacks, 15 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate in his first season in town in 2021, before last year’s career best year, in which he had 8 sacks, 19 hits, and a 16.1% pressure rate. Hendrickson is not much of a run defender, but his pass rush ability more than makes up for it. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023, even if he ends up not being quite as good as his career best 2022 season.

Hubbard also had a career best year in 2022, as the 2018 3rd round pick has previously only finished in the 60s on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league. He’s played 741 snaps per season in five seasons in the league though and, even with Myles Murphy being added, he should remain a starter. Unlike Hendrickson, Hubbard is at his best against the run, but he has also added 30.5 sacks, 47 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate in 75 career games, with 6.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate last season. Also still in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him as well in 2023, even if he also isn’t quite as good as he was in his career best year in 2022.

Cameron Sample (58.0 snaps) and Joseph Assai (55.3 snaps) were their top reserve edge defenders last season, but they had PFF grades of just 58.0 and 55.3 respectively and their roles are in limbo with Murphy being added. Both were relatively high draft picks, Sample going in the 4th round in 2021 and Assai in the 3rd in that same draft, but neither has done much thus far in their career, with Sample struggling like he did last season on 310 snaps as a rookie as well and Assai missing his entire rookie season with injury, before struggling in his first year back last season. Sample and Assai could still have upside and will compete for deep reserve snaps in 2023, but this group is led by a top trio of Hendrickson, Hubbard, and Murphy, who are one of the top edge rushers in the league, a starting caliber edge rusher, and a first round rookie respectively, so they won’t need much else beyond those three, barring injuries.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Not much changed at the interior defender position this off-season, which is a good thing because the Bengals have a pair of above average starters at the position. BJ Hill received a 65.8 grade on 815 snaps and, while fellow starter DJ Reader was limited to 397 snaps in 10 games, he excelled with a 87.3 PFF grade and should be healthier this season. For Reader, it was his third season over 80 in the past four years and he’s exceeded 60 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league. 

The 6-3 347 pound Reader is predictably at his best against the run, but also has added 8.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 7.9% pressure rate as a pass rusher in 92 career games. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him this year. Durability has been a concern for much of his career, with 22 games missed over the past seven seasons, but I would still expect him to be healthier than a year ago. BJ Hill, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and has exceeded 60 on PFF in all five seasons, including three seasons over 70, with 564 snaps played per season in his career. Also in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023.

Unfortunately, the Bengals depth at this position is concerning. They used a 3rd round pick in last year’s draft on Zachary Carter, but he struggled mightily in year one with a 32.1 PFF grade on 395 snaps and, even if he takes a step forward in year two, he has a long way to go to be even a capable rotational player. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ other top reserve, veteran Josh Tupou (272 snaps), is a solid run defender at times, but only has a career 4.8% pressure rate and has not been as good against the run in recent years, leading to back-to-back seasons below 60 overall on PFF, even as a rotational player. He figures to continue being a decent early down run stuffer at best, with minimal upside. Reader and Hill make this a good position group, but depth is at least a little bit of a concern.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Things remain the same in the linebacking corps, where the only three players who saw more than a few snaps last season, Logan Wilson (954 snaps), Germaine Pratt (722 snaps), and Akeem Davis-Gaither (228 snaps), all return for 2023. Wilson and Pratt both had career best years in 2022, as the 2020 3rd round pick Wilson received PFF grades of 54.7 and 53.9 in his first two seasons in the league, on snap counts of 343 and 707 respectively, before jumping to 72.7 in a breakout third season in the league in a career high snaps in 2022, while the 2019 3rd round pick Pratt had previously posted 51.0, 41.5, and 47.0 grades on PFF over his first three seasons in the league respectively, before jumping all the way to 80.6 in a breakout fourth season in the league, also on a career high snaps. 

With Wilson and Pratt both going into their age 27 seasons, both could have permanently turned a corner and could continue being above average starting linebackers going forward, but it seems unlikely that both players will repeat by far the best years of their respective careers and the possibility that one or both drops off significantly is pretty high. Davis-Gaithers is also pretty young, as the 2020 4th round pick also heads into his age 27 season. He’s only played 250 snaps per season in three seasons in the league, but he’s been pretty decent in a limited role and the Bengals won’t need much more out of him, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. This young linebacking corps has upside, with their top two players both coming off above average years, but those were also career best years for both players that they could have trouble repeating.

Grade: B+

Secondary

By far the biggest changes on this Bengals defense this off-season are in the secondary. At safety, both of the Bengals’ starters from a year ago, Jessie Bates (76.8 PFF grade on 1,016 snaps) and Vonn Bell (66.3 PFF grade on 1,023 snaps), are no longer with the team. The Bengals knew both were set to hit free agency this off-season and planned ahead, using their first round pick a year ago on safety Daxton Hill, who will become a starter in year two after playing just 130 snaps as a rookie, but I don’t think they were anticipating losing both Bates and Bell, as they don’t have a good replacement plan for the other safety spot.

The Bengals gave a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal to veteran Nick Scott and he is likely the favorite for the other starting job, but the 2019 7th round pick has made just 17 starts in four seasons in the league, while performing at a middling level at best, including a 54.2 PFF grade in his only full season as a starter in 2022 (984 snaps), so he would likely struggle if he was the starter for the whole season. The Bengals did use a 3rd round pick on Alabama’s Jordan Battle as competition, but he too could struggle as a rookie, while 2022 5th round pick Tycen Anderson didn’t play a snap as a rookie and would also likely struggle if he ended up as the starter. Daxton Hill has the talent to be a solid starter immediately, but that’s not a guarantee and the Bengals figure to have a liability at the other safety spot. 

At cornerback, the Bengals lost Eli Apple, who played 908 snaps a year ago, but that’s not nearly as big of a loss because Apple struggled with a 50.9 grade last season and the Bengals have 2022 2nd round pick Cam Taylor-Britt and 2nd round rookie DJ Turner as potential replacement options who could both easily prove to be upgrades. Taylor-Britt did have just a 56.1 PFF grade on 590 snaps as a rookie, but he could easily be better than that in year two and both he and the rookie DJ Turner have the upside to be above average starters long-term.

The Bengals should also get a healthier season out of Chidobe Awuzie, who is their top cornerback when healthy, but was limited to 471 snaps in 8 games last season by a torn ACL that ended his season. Injuries have been a consistent problem for him, as he’s missed 27 games in 6 seasons in the league, since being selected in the 2nd round by the Cowboys in 2017, but he’s also shown flashes of high level play, exceeding 70 on PFF three times in his career, including a career best 83.3 on 777 snaps as recently as 2021, when he was PFF’s 2nd ranked cornerback overall. Awuzie did fall to 69.9 in 2022 even before the injury and that injury now complicates his long-term projection, so he’s not necessarily reliable as a top level cornerback, but he has the upside to be a top level cornerback again if everything goes right, still only in his age 28 season.

Slot specialist Mike Hilton also remains and, also in his prime in his age 29 season, he should continue being an above average slot option, as he has been throughout his career, surpassing 67 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, surpassing 70 on PFF three times, while averaging 635 snaps per season. The former 2017 undrafted free agent is only 5-9 184 and, as a result, is only a slot specialist, but he’s arguably the best pure slot cornerback in the game and should continue playing at the same level in 2023. Safety is now a position of concern for the Bengals, after it was a weakness a year ago, but they could easily get better cornerback play, with Awuzie returning from injury and a pair of young cornerbacks with the potential to be an upgrade as a replacement for former starter Eli Apple, so this isn’t a bad secondary.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Bengals were one of the best teams in the league last season, finishing 5th in regular season DVOA and coming close to a second straight playoff appearance. Going into 2023, this again looks like one of the best teams in the league, without drastic changes from a year ago. They play in by far the toughest of the two conferences in the AFC, which limits their chances of going on a run, but they have as good of a shot as anyone else to make it out of the conference, in which case they would almost definitely be the Super Bowl favorite over any NFC team. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 13-4, 1st in AFC North