Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Bengals

Quarterback

In 2019, the Bengals finished with the worst record in the league at 2-14, securing them the #1 pick and elite quarterback prospect Joe Burrow. Burrow took his rookie year lumps on a mediocre team and had about half his season wiped out due to a torn ACL, leading to the Bengals once again being among the worst teams in the league at 4-11-1. However, the Bengals kept building their supporting cast around Burrow through free agency and the draft and Burrow’s play took off upon his return from injury in his second season in the league in 2021. 

In that first season back, Burrow led the Bengals solid 10-7 regular season record and then took the Bengals all the way to the Super Bowl, coming within a blown 4th quarter lead of winning the whole thing. The Bengals then followed that up with a 12-4-1 season in 2022 in which they narrowly lost in the AFC Championship game to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs, with their season ending just short of another Super Bowl appearance. This season looks likely to be another season in contention, with the Bengals returning most of the same roster from a year ago.

He has a lot of help, but quarterback Joe Burrow is obviously what makes this team go, completing 69.2% of his passes for 8.07 YPA, 69 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions over the past two seasons, while posting grades of 91.7 (2nd among quarterbacks) and 90.8 (3rd) respectively on PFF. Still only in his age 27 season, Burrow should remain one of the top quarterbacks in the league for years to come. The Bengals need to figure out a long-term extension with him, now eligible after three years in the league, but they do have two years before he could theoretically hit free agency and, while they will almost definitely have to give him a top of the market deal whenever he does sign, Burrow figures to be worth it long-term.

If Burrow happens to get hurt, the Bengals would obviously be in a lot of trouble, turning to veteran backup Trevor Siemian, who has a 81.1 QB rating in 30 career starts in 8 seasons in the league, since going in the 7th round in 2015. He’s not a terrible backup, but the Bengals obviously don’t want to see him in the game in meaningful situations, with one of the best quarterbacks in the league topping the depth chart.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Two of the biggest additions the Bengals have made around Joe Burrow in recent years is getting him a pair of talented young wide receivers to throw to, adding Tee Higgins in the 2nd round in 2020 and JaMarr Chase in the 1st round in 2021 to a receiving corps that already had Tyler Boyd, a former 1000+ yard receiver in his own right (2018 and 2019). Chase burst onto the scene with a 81/1455/13 slash line as a rookie and then he had a 87/1046/9 slash line in 2022 even though he was limited to 12 games by injury. 

Higgins, meanwhile, had a 67/908/6 slash line as a rookie, a 74/1091/6 slash line in 2021, and a 74/1029/7 slash line in 2022, giving the Bengals one of five wide receiver duos to both surpass 1000 yards receiving in 2022. On most teams, Higgins would be the #1 receiver, but he’s the de facto #2 wide receiver in Cincinnati behind Chase. With Chase and Higgins in only their age 23 and age 24 respectively, they should continue being high level players for years to come and it’s possible that both players could keep getting even better.

With Chase and Higgins coming in, Tyler Boyd has obviously had to take on a smaller role in recent years, but Boyd has still found ways to be productive, with slash lines of 79/841/4, 67/828/5, and 58/762/5 respectively over the past three seasons, with the last two coming on target totals of just 94 and 82. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Boyd in 2023, who would be a #2 and or even a #1 wide receiver on many other teams around the league.

The Bengals haven’t gotten much out of the tight end position in the past few years, with CJ Uzomah putting up a 49/493/5 slash line on 1.07 yards per route run as the starter in 2021 and Hayden Hurst putting up 52/414/2 on 1.07 yards per route run as the starter in 2022, and that figures to remain the same in 2023, with the Bengals only taking a flier on former Vikings tight end Irv Smith in free agency to replace Hurst this off-season. 

Smith was a 2nd round pick in 2019 and is still only in his age 25 season, so he has upside and was a worthwhile signing on a 1-year, 1.75 million dollar deal, but his career 1.12 yards per route run average is mediocre even for a tight end, he’s not a great blocker, and he’s missed 29 games with injury in four seasons in the league, so he might not contribute that much. The Bengals probably won’t need him to though, with the top-3 they have at the wide receiver position. Smith figures to be backed up by blocking specialist Drew Sample, who has just a 0.80 yards per route run average for his career.

The Bengals don’t have much need for depth at the wide receiver position, but an injury is always possible and, while 2019 undrafted free agent Trenton Irwin wasn’t horrible with a 1.22 yards per route run average in place of Chase last season, in the first real action of his career, the Bengals still wanted to add more depth at the position this off-season, using 4th and 6th round picks on wide receivers Charles Jones and Andrei Iosivas. Any of their reserves would likely be overmatched in a large role for an extended period of time, but the Bengals have as good of a top pass catching trio as any team in the league and, barring injuries, depth and tight end production won’t be needed much.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

While the Bengals have built their receiving corps through the draft, they have built their offensive line mostly through free agency. Last off-season, they added center Ted Karras (3 years, 18 million), right guard Alex Cappa (4 years, 35 million), and right tackle La’El Collins (3 years, 21 million) to an offensive line that was obviously a weakness in 2021 even with the Bengals making the Super Bowl. Cappa and Karras were solid in their first season in Cincinnati, with grades of 67.6 and 62.6 respectively, and, while Collins struggled with a 57.9 PFF grade, the Bengals tried again this off-season with former Chiefs tackle Orlando Brown, who they signed to a 4-year, 64.092 million dollar deal. 

Brown’s addition will move Collins to a swing tackle role, a role he’s to be overqualified for even after last year’s down year, as he has 86 career starts, isn’t totally over the hill in his age 30 season, and has surpassed 70 on PFF in three straight healthy seasons prior to 2022. He’s great depth to have, though he has missed 24 games due to injury over the past four seasons combined. While Collins played on the right side, Brown will continue playing left tackle like he did in Kansas City and he will push incumbent Jonah Williams over to right tackle. 

A first round pick in 2019, Williams hasn’t been a bad left tackle in his career, missing his whole rookie season with injury, but making 42 starts over the past three seasons combined, while receiving grades of 70.1, 77.1, and 61.2 respectively from PFF, and he didn’t take the news of Brown’s addition well, initially demanding a trade, understandable as he heads into the final year of his rookie deal without an extension and now will play a position with a lower market value. 

However, Williams is coming off of a down year and could benefit from a move to the right side, while Brown has consistently been an above average offensive tackle throughout his career, starting with 67.8 and 72.0 PFF grades as mostly a right tackle in 2018 and 2019 respectively and 76.5, 75.4, and 75.8 PFF grades as mostly a left tackle in 2020, 2021, and 2022 respectively, while never missing a game. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023 and he should prove to be a good value at the average annual salary the Bengals signed him at.

At right guard and center respectively, Cappa and Karras should have similar seasons as a year ago. Cappa was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and has exceeded 60 on PFF in all four seasons since becoming a starter in his second season in the league in 2019 (62 total starts in those four seasons), with his career best year being a 73.4 PFF grade in 2021. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Cappa should remain a solid, if unspectacular starting right guard. Karras, meanwhile, is similar, making 60 starts over the past 4 seasons, exceeding 60 on PFF all 4 times, with a career best 72.2 in 2021. He’s now in his age 30 season and could decline a little, in which case he could be a little bit of a liability, but he could also easily remain a capable starter at least, not totally over the hill at this point in this career.

The biggest weakness on this offensive line last season was left guard, as 4th round rookie Cordell Volson predictably struggled with a 51.6 grade in 16 starts. He could be better in year two, but that’s far from a guarantee and it’s possible he loses his job to Jackson Carman, a 2021 2nd round pick who was actually the starter as a rookie before Volson. Carman struggled as well, with a 56.3 PFF grade on 462 snaps, which relegated him to playing just 4 snaps as a reserve in year two, but he probably still has a higher upside than Volson and he could benefit from his year on the bench. Left guard could easily remain a position of weakness, but this is a solid offensive line aside from that, thanks primarily to recent free agent additions Orlando Brown, Alex Cappa, and Ted Karras.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

With this roster about to get more expensive in the next couple off-seasons, with cheap young players up for big extensions, it originally seemed like the Bengals might opt to cut highly paid highly back Joe Mixon this off-season, ahead of 10.1 million owed in 2023, with a concerning off-the-field situation that didn’t help matters. That seemed less likely when the Bengals let backup Samaje Perine (95 carries, 51 targets, 449 snaps played in 2022) walk in free agency without signing a replacement and then only used a 5th round pick in the draft on the position, taking Illinois’ Chase Brown, and ultimately Mixon is back with the the only team he’s ever known for his 7th season, on a restructured deal that pays him about 6 million this year, plus incentives. 

Mixon has handled heavy volume for this team, with 1314 carries and 231 catches in 80 games in his career, but he’s not really an elite running back who was worth the kind of big money he was getting before. His career 1.26 yards per route run average is helpful on a pass heavy team like the Bengals (1.47 yards per route run in 2022), but his 4.09 career yards per carry average is mediocre and, while he did rank 10th in carry success rate last season at 54%, suggesting he was more efficient than his 3.88 YPC average suggests, that’s also what you would expect from a running back on an offense this good and it’s unclear if Mixon is the kind of back who moves the needle on his own. 

That being said, he is in line for another big workload, with the Bengals seriously lacking other options at the position. Despite only being a 5th round pick, the rookie Brown could be the #2 running back as a rookie, with his top competition being 2019 6th round pick Trayveon Williams, who has 47 career carries, and 2021 6th round pick Chris Evans, who has 17 career carries. None of them figure to have much of a role outside of a few touches here and there, unless Mixon misses time with injury and gets suspended for his off-the-field incidents. Mixon isn’t an overly explosive back and the Bengals depth is a concern, but this isn’t a bad backfield. 

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Bengals have a similar group on defense as well this season. On the defensive line, the Bengals return all four starters and, at the edge defender position in particular, the Bengals also add first round pick Myles Murphy to a position where Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard are coming off of PFF grades of 85.0 and 72.4 respectively, but where better depth was needed. Murphy is also big enough at 6-5 268 to line up on the interior in sub packages, allowing the Bengals to get their best four pass rushers on the field together in sub packages.

Hendrickson was added by the Bengals two off-seasons ago on a 4-year, 60 million dollar deal, which has more than paid off. A 3rd round pick in 2017, Hendrickson was a risky signing because he was a one-year wonder with the Saints, showing potential early in his career, but only playing 274 snaps per season in his first three seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 72.1 PFF grade on 558 snaps in 2020, excelling as a pass rusher with 13.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 13.3% pressure rate. 

Hendrickson has continued playing at that level in his new home in Cincinnati though, proving not to be a one-year wonder, with a 72.8 PFF grade and 14 sacks, 15 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate in his first season in town in 2021, before last year’s career best year, in which he had 8 sacks, 19 hits, and a 16.1% pressure rate. Hendrickson is not much of a run defender, but his pass rush ability more than makes up for it. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023, even if he ends up not being quite as good as his career best 2022 season.

Hubbard also had a career best year in 2022, as the 2018 3rd round pick has previously only finished in the 60s on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league. He’s played 741 snaps per season in five seasons in the league though and, even with Myles Murphy being added, he should remain a starter. Unlike Hendrickson, Hubbard is at his best against the run, but he has also added 30.5 sacks, 47 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate in 75 career games, with 6.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate last season. Also still in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him as well in 2023, even if he also isn’t quite as good as he was in his career best year in 2022.

Cameron Sample (58.0 snaps) and Joseph Assai (55.3 snaps) were their top reserve edge defenders last season, but they had PFF grades of just 58.0 and 55.3 respectively and their roles are in limbo with Murphy being added. Both were relatively high draft picks, Sample going in the 4th round in 2021 and Assai in the 3rd in that same draft, but neither has done much thus far in their career, with Sample struggling like he did last season on 310 snaps as a rookie as well and Assai missing his entire rookie season with injury, before struggling in his first year back last season. Sample and Assai could still have upside and will compete for deep reserve snaps in 2023, but this group is led by a top trio of Hendrickson, Hubbard, and Murphy, who are one of the top edge rushers in the league, a starting caliber edge rusher, and a first round rookie respectively, so they won’t need much else beyond those three, barring injuries.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

Not much changed at the interior defender position this off-season, which is a good thing because the Bengals have a pair of above average starters at the position. BJ Hill received a 65.8 grade on 815 snaps and, while fellow starter DJ Reader was limited to 397 snaps in 10 games, he excelled with a 87.3 PFF grade and should be healthier this season. For Reader, it was his third season over 80 in the past four years and he’s exceeded 60 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league. 

The 6-3 347 pound Reader is predictably at his best against the run, but also has added 8.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 7.9% pressure rate as a pass rusher in 92 career games. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him this year. Durability has been a concern for much of his career, with 22 games missed over the past seven seasons, but I would still expect him to be healthier than a year ago. BJ Hill, meanwhile, was a 3rd round pick in 2018 and has exceeded 60 on PFF in all five seasons, including three seasons over 70, with 564 snaps played per season in his career. Also in his prime in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023.

Unfortunately, the Bengals depth at this position is concerning. They used a 3rd round pick in last year’s draft on Zachary Carter, but he struggled mightily in year one with a 32.1 PFF grade on 395 snaps and, even if he takes a step forward in year two, he has a long way to go to be even a capable rotational player. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ other top reserve, veteran Josh Tupou (272 snaps), is a solid run defender at times, but only has a career 4.8% pressure rate and has not been as good against the run in recent years, leading to back-to-back seasons below 60 overall on PFF, even as a rotational player. He figures to continue being a decent early down run stuffer at best, with minimal upside. Reader and Hill make this a good position group, but depth is at least a little bit of a concern.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Things remain the same in the linebacking corps, where the only three players who saw more than a few snaps last season, Logan Wilson (954 snaps), Germaine Pratt (722 snaps), and Akeem Davis-Gaither (228 snaps), all return for 2023. Wilson and Pratt both had career best years in 2022, as the 2020 3rd round pick Wilson received PFF grades of 54.7 and 53.9 in his first two seasons in the league, on snap counts of 343 and 707 respectively, before jumping to 72.7 in a breakout third season in the league in a career high snaps in 2022, while the 2019 3rd round pick Pratt had previously posted 51.0, 41.5, and 47.0 grades on PFF over his first three seasons in the league respectively, before jumping all the way to 80.6 in a breakout fourth season in the league, also on a career high snaps. 

With Wilson and Pratt both going into their age 27 seasons, both could have permanently turned a corner and could continue being above average starting linebackers going forward, but it seems unlikely that both players will repeat by far the best years of their respective careers and the possibility that one or both drops off significantly is pretty high. Davis-Gaithers is also pretty young, as the 2020 4th round pick also heads into his age 27 season. He’s only played 250 snaps per season in three seasons in the league, but he’s been pretty decent in a limited role and the Bengals won’t need much more out of him, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. This young linebacking corps has upside, with their top two players both coming off above average years, but those were also career best years for both players that they could have trouble repeating.

Grade: B+

Secondary

By far the biggest changes on this Bengals defense this off-season are in the secondary. At safety, both of the Bengals’ starters from a year ago, Jessie Bates (76.8 PFF grade on 1,016 snaps) and Vonn Bell (66.3 PFF grade on 1,023 snaps), are no longer with the team. The Bengals knew both were set to hit free agency this off-season and planned ahead, using their first round pick a year ago on safety Daxton Hill, who will become a starter in year two after playing just 130 snaps as a rookie, but I don’t think they were anticipating losing both Bates and Bell, as they don’t have a good replacement plan for the other safety spot.

The Bengals gave a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal to veteran Nick Scott and he is likely the favorite for the other starting job, but the 2019 7th round pick has made just 17 starts in four seasons in the league, while performing at a middling level at best, including a 54.2 PFF grade in his only full season as a starter in 2022 (984 snaps), so he would likely struggle if he was the starter for the whole season. The Bengals did use a 3rd round pick on Alabama’s Jordan Battle as competition, but he too could struggle as a rookie, while 2022 5th round pick Tycen Anderson didn’t play a snap as a rookie and would also likely struggle if he ended up as the starter. Daxton Hill has the talent to be a solid starter immediately, but that’s not a guarantee and the Bengals figure to have a liability at the other safety spot. 

At cornerback, the Bengals lost Eli Apple, who played 908 snaps a year ago, but that’s not nearly as big of a loss because Apple struggled with a 50.9 grade last season and the Bengals have 2022 2nd round pick Cam Taylor-Britt and 2nd round rookie DJ Turner as potential replacement options who could both easily prove to be upgrades. Taylor-Britt did have just a 56.1 PFF grade on 590 snaps as a rookie, but he could easily be better than that in year two and both he and the rookie DJ Turner have the upside to be above average starters long-term.

The Bengals should also get a healthier season out of Chidobe Awuzie, who is their top cornerback when healthy, but was limited to 471 snaps in 8 games last season by a torn ACL that ended his season. Injuries have been a consistent problem for him, as he’s missed 27 games in 6 seasons in the league, since being selected in the 2nd round by the Cowboys in 2017, but he’s also shown flashes of high level play, exceeding 70 on PFF three times in his career, including a career best 83.3 on 777 snaps as recently as 2021, when he was PFF’s 2nd ranked cornerback overall. Awuzie did fall to 69.9 in 2022 even before the injury and that injury now complicates his long-term projection, so he’s not necessarily reliable as a top level cornerback, but he has the upside to be a top level cornerback again if everything goes right, still only in his age 28 season.

Slot specialist Mike Hilton also remains and, also in his prime in his age 29 season, he should continue being an above average slot option, as he has been throughout his career, surpassing 67 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, surpassing 70 on PFF three times, while averaging 635 snaps per season. The former 2017 undrafted free agent is only 5-9 184 and, as a result, is only a slot specialist, but he’s arguably the best pure slot cornerback in the game and should continue playing at the same level in 2023. Safety is now a position of concern for the Bengals, after it was a weakness a year ago, but they could easily get better cornerback play, with Awuzie returning from injury and a pair of young cornerbacks with the potential to be an upgrade as a replacement for former starter Eli Apple, so this isn’t a bad secondary.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Bengals were one of the best teams in the league last season, finishing 5th in regular season DVOA and coming close to a second straight playoff appearance. Going into 2023, this again looks like one of the best teams in the league, without drastic changes from a year ago. They play in by far the toughest of the two conferences in the AFC, which limits their chances of going on a run, but they have as good of a shot as anyone else to make it out of the conference, in which case they would almost definitely be the Super Bowl favorite over any NFC team. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 13-4, 1st in AFC North

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (10-4) at New England Patriots (7-7)

This is one of the tougher calls of the week from an against the spread perspective. My calculated line is Cincinnati -3, which is right where this line is, and, given that games are decided by three significantly more often than any other number, the most likely outcome of this game is a Cincinnati win by a field goal, which would result in a push. I am taking New England for pick ‘em purposes, but only because the public is heavily on the Bengals and, as a result, the sportsbooks would stand to make a lot of money if the Patriots are able to keep this within three. 

For all the problems the Patriots have on offense (29th in schedule adjusted efficiency), their defense is still one of the best in the league (3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency) and, overall, they’re not worse than an average team, so they should be able to keep this game somewhat competitive at home, even if the Bengals are likely to emerge victorious. A push is still probably more likely than anything though and there’s not nearly enough here for this game to be worth betting either way.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 New England Patriots 20

Pick against the spread: New England +3

Confidence: None

Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)

Historically, this would be a spot where a Tom Brady led team would be an automatic bet, as he 46-13 ATS all-time against a team with a better record than this, 60-32 ATS all-time as an underdog or favorite of less than three, and 36-14 ATS after a loss when not favored by a touchdown or more. However, Tom Brady has not played at the same level in his age 45 season this year and the Buccaneers don’t have a great roster around them, so we’re not getting any line value with them as 3.5-point home underdogs against the surging Bengals, who have eight wins by four points or more. 

If I were to bet on the Buccaneers, it would almost be a pure bet on a spot and I’m not sure if that justifies a bet anymore at this point in Brady’s career. I might still bet on the Buccaneers if they get both Antoine Winfield and Tristan Wirfs back from injury, as they are a different team when those two key players are in the lineup, but they are both considered legitimately questionable, so this is a low confidence pick for now. Depending on the final injury report and where this line ends up, I may update this pick.

Cincinnati Bengals 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3.5

Confidence: Low

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (5-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-4)

This game is a tough call, with both teams being better than their records. The Bengals have four losses, but you can still argue they are one of the best teams in the league, with two of those losses coming in the first two weeks of the season and three of their losses coming by three points or fewer, as opposed to four wins by 12 points or more, giving them a point differential of +57 which ranks 6th in the NFL. They also rank 7th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 4.5 points above average, and they are getting healthy, with key players in running back Joe Mixon, defensive tackle DJ Reader, and wide receiver JaMarr Chase all expected to play this week after time earlier this season, leading to them being 6.5 points above average in my roster rankings.

The Browns, meanwhile, are the only team to beat the Bengals by more than three points this season, doing so by 19 points in Cleveland back in week 8, and, like the Bengals, most of their losses have been very close, with four of seven coming by three points or fewer. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Browns rank 10th, about 1.5 points above average, and they got franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson back from suspension last week, which should prove to be a significant upgrade in the long-term. 

I am going with the Bengals in this game for pick ‘em purposes, as 5.5-point home favorites, but only because Watson might still not be at his best in just his second game out, while the Browns defense continues to lose key players due to injury, with Sione Takitaki now out, meaning they’re without their top-3 linebackers from what was once a very talented group. Even with that taken into account though, this is one of the toughest games of the week from an against the spread perspective and is one of my lowest confidence picks. In fact, while I would take the Bengals at 5.5, I might switch to the Browns if the line moved to 6, that’s how close this decision is for me.

Cincinnati Bengals 33 Cleveland Browns 27

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -5.5

Confidence: None

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)

A week ago on the early line, the Chiefs were favored by a field goal in Cincinnati, but this line has since fallen down to two, a significant shift, given that one in six games are decided by three points exactly. That line movement seems like an overreaction to a single week of play and a strange one at that, with both the Bengals and Chiefs both barely covering the spread last week, hardly results that would seem to result in a line movement. 

I don’t think the line should have moved, especially since a Kansas City win by a field goal seems like the single most likely outcome of this game, with the Chiefs being the better team and a field goal deciding about 1 out of every 6 games. The Bengals are better than their record, with three of their four losses coming by three points or fewer and a +54 point differential that ranks 6th in the NFL, but they’re still significantly behind the Chiefs in point differential (+83) and in schedule adjusted efficiency, with the 2nd ranked Chiefs holding a 4-point edge over the 6th ranked Bengals. 

The Bengals are getting healthier, with stud interior defender DJ Reader returning a few weeks ago and top wide receiver JaMarr Chase expected back this week, but the Chiefs are about as healthy as a team can be at this point in the season and also hold a 6-point edge in my roster rankings over the Bengals. There’s not enough here for the Chiefs to be worth betting, but we’re getting at least some line value with them and they seem like the better pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Cincinnati Bengals 31

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -2

Confidence: Low

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-3)

The Titans have won seven of their last eight games to go to 7-3 on the season, but their wins haven’t been that impressive, as their only win against a team that isn’t sub .500 came against the 6-5 Commanders and none of those wins have come by more than 10 points. Only two of their wins have come by more than a touchdown and neither win was as impressive as that suggests, as they needed a pick six to make the margin of victory bigger against the Colts, while last week’s 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time.

The Bengals, meanwhile, have one fewer win than the Titans, but four of them have come by more than 10 points and blowout wins are much more predictive of future winning than close wins. On the flip side, three of the Bengals’ four losses have come by three points or fewer, giving them a point differential of +50, significantly better than the Titans at +8. They’re also getting healthier, getting back stud interior defender DJ Reader last week and likely to get back top wide receiver JaMarr Chase this week.

The Bengals are favored on the road here, but they’re only favored by 2.5 points, which is pretty insignificant, with less than 1 in 10 games decided by 2 points or fewer, as opposed to 1 in 6 games decided by 3 points exactly. My calculated line has the Bengals favored by 4.5 points, so we’re getting significant line value with them. This isn’t a big bet, but in a game in which they basically just need to win to cover, the Bengals are worth at least a small bet this week.

Update: JaMarr Chase is surprisingly not playing. I already locked this bet in, so I can’t change it, but the line has dropped to 1 and I would take the Bengals even without Chase at that number.

Cincinnati Bengals 31 Tennessee Titans 26

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -2.5

Confidence: Medium

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)

The Steelers are just 3-6, but they’ve faced one of the toughest schedules in the league, facing a .500 or better team in seven of their nine games. When strength of schedule is factored in, the Steelers actually rank 15th in overall efficiency, right about below average, and they’ve done that without their top defensive player and reigning Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt for most of the season. In fact, this will be the Steelers’ first game with both Watt and arguably their second best defensive player Minkah Fitzpatrick both in the lineup at the same time since week 1.

The Bengals are better than their 5-4 record as well, with an average margin of victory of 14.0 points per game, leading to them ranking 5th in the league with +43 point differential and ranking 6th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about four points above average. They’re going in the wrong direction injury wise though, missing top wide receiver JaMarr Chase and top cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, leading to the Bengals only having a three point edge over the healthier Steelers in my roster rankings. 

With the Steelers being at home, it’s hard to justify them being 4-point underdogs and my calculated line suggests they should be underdogs of just 1 point. With that in mind, the Steelers are worth betting this week, though this will be a smaller play because the Bengals are in a great spot off of a bye, as road favorites of 3.5 or more cover at a 62.6% rate after a bye. The Bengals don’t deserve to be favored by that many points though, so I’m still pretty confident in the Steelers keeping this close and potentially pulling the home upset.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 23

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +4

Confidence: Medium

Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (2-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-4)

The Bengals have been better than their 4-4 record this season, with a +22 point differential and an 8th ranked schedule adjusted efficiency, three points above average. However, they are one of the most injury affected teams in the league right now, missing top cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie and Mike Hilton, top wide receiver JaMarr Chase, and top interior defender DJ Reader, all of whom are among their most important players. 

Fortunately, the Bengals are in a good spot heading into their bye week, as big home favorites over the lowly Panthers. Home favorites of 6 points or more cover the spread at a 63.5% rate all-time before a bye and the Bengals are favored in this game by 7 points. Missing the key players they are missing, I have the Bengals a half point below average in my roster rankings, but the Panthers rank 6 points below average in schedule adjusted efficiency and 5 points below average in my roster rankings, so this line is actually a little short, with my calculated line at 8.5. It’s not great line value, but between that and the great spot the Bengals are in, they are bettable this week at -7.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Carolina Panthers 16

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -7

Confidence: Medium

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-5)

The Browns are just 2-5, but they aren’t getting blown out, with all but one of their losses coming by a field goal or less. Their point differential is -18, which is better than their record would suggest, and they are even better in schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 16th, just slightly above average. Despite that, they are underdogs of a full field goal at home. However, they might deserve to be, for a couple reasons. For one, the Browns are missing several key players due to injury, most notably guard Wyatt Teller, arguably their most important offensive player, as well as top cornerback Denzel Ward and talented starting tight end David Njoku, while their top linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is questionable after not practicing all week. 

On top of that, the Browns are facing the Bengals, who seem like one of the better teams in the league, despite their record. Like most of the Browns’ losses, all of the Bengals’ losses were close games that they easily could have won, all decided by three points or fewer, as opposed to three of their four wins coming by double digits. Their +41 point differential is 4th best in the NFL and in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, they rank 4th, about 5 points above average and above the Browns.

The Bengals have some injury concerns as well, most notably the absence of stud wide receiver JaMarr Chase, but they have enough depth at that position to compensate and they are otherwise relatively healthy, leading to them having a four point edge over the Browns in my roster rankings. That still suggests that we’re getting some line value with the Browns, but it’s not enough for the Browns to be worth betting. That could change if Owusu-Koramoah ends up playing and the line stays at a full field goal, but that seems unlikely and, even in that case, I might keep this as a low confidence pick. I will update this pick if I end up betting on the Browns, who should be the pick for pick ‘em purposes either way.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Cleveland Browns 23

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3

Confidence: Low

Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (3-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)

The Falcons have been one of the most surprising teams in the league this season. Entering the season clearly in the beginning phases of a rebuild, with one of the least talented rosters in the league on paper, the Falcons have started 3-3 and their performance has been no fluke. Their defense has been mediocre, ranking 24th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, but their offense has statistically been one of the best in the league, ranking 5th in both first down rate and schedule adjusted efficiency, and offensive performance tends to be much more consistent week-to-week than defensive performance.

This week, the Falcons visit a Bengals team that is well above average, despite a 3-3 record, with all three of their losses coming by three points or fewer and a +23 point differential that is 7th best in the NFL, but the Falcons are still about even with the Bengals in overall schedule adjusted efficiency. My roster rankings don’t show the Falcons as favorably, as they’ve significantly overachieved compared to their talent level and are missing talented cornerback Casey Hayward this week, after being one of the healthiest teams in the league through the first few weeks of the season, but the Bengals still only have a 3-point edge in my roster rankings.

The Bengals are at home in this game, but these teams are closer than this 6.5-point line suggests, with my calculated line falling at Cincinnati -4.5. That’s not enough line value for the Falcons to be worth betting, but I would reconsider if this line jumped up to a full touchdown and the Falcons should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes. The Falcons haven’t lost by more than 6 points all season and, while it wouldn’t surprise me if they suffered their biggest margin of defeat thus far in Cincinnati against a good Bengals team this week, I would expect this to be a relatively close game.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Atlanta Falcons 22

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +6.5

Confidence: Low