Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bengals, Saints, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (5-3-1) at New Orleans Saints (4-5)

The Saints lost at home last week after previously winning 20 straight games under Sean Payton at home. Still, I like them at home a lot. They are still 18-2-1 ATS at home over their last 21 home games with Drew Brees and Sean Payton, outscoring opponents by an average of about 18.52 points per game. I’m not going to not bet the Saints at home this week just because they lost in overtime last week. In fact, the fact that they lost last week might make it more likely that they cover this week. Drew Brees is 21-5 ATS off a loss since 2008 as long as Sean Payton is on the sideline, including 16-2 ATS at home.

Meanwhile, the Bengals have not been good on the road recently. The Bengals are 3-7-1 ATS on the road since the start of last season, including losses in 2013 to non-playoff teams like Cleveland, Miami, Chicago, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh and a close call in Buffalo. They are moving the chains at a 57.89% rate on the road, as opposed to 77.12% for their opponents, a differential of -19.22%. Meanwhile, the Saints are moving the chains at an 82.47% rate at home, as opposed to 73.28% for their opponents, a differential of 9.19%. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because the Bengals are coming off of an embarrassing loss on Thursday Night Football and teams usually bounce back in that situation, as they have extra time to be embarrassed. Underdogs are 24-16 ATS since 1989 off of a TNF loss by 14 or more. The Saints are still the right side though.

New Orleans Saints 34 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -7

Confidence: High

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Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (5-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2-1)

The Bengals have a solid record at 5-2-1, but they are 2-0-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and they have a +7 point differential and their two losses came by a combined 53 points. They aren’t nearly as good as their record or as good as they’ve been in recent years, as a result of injuries to guys like AJ Green, Kevin Zeitler, Marvin Jones, Vontaze Burfict, Leon Hall, and Giovani Bernard and off-season losses of guys like Michael Johnson, Anthony Collins, and coordinators Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer.

Green is back now, but they are still missing a lot of very important guys. They are 22nd in the NFL, moving the chains at a 72.18% rate, as opposed to 74.91% for their opponents, a differential of -2.73%. The Browns aren’t as good as their record either, but they still rank higher than the Bengals. They rank 19th, moving the chains at a 70.52% rate, as opposed to 71.43% for their opponents, a differential of -0.91%.

However, the Bengals have been a lot better at home this season, moving the chains at a 78.49% rate, as opposed to 73.29% for their opponents, a differential of 5.20%. This is nothing new for them as they have been dominant at home over the past 2 seasons. The Bengals are 12-1-1 at home over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.64 points per game, going 11-3 against the spread. That being said, they’ve been overrated all season because of their record so that has nullified most of that homefield advantage. Last week, I was hesitant to pick them at home as 11.5 point favorites over Jacksonville, a game in which they won by 10. They’re still a way better home team than road team, but they aren’t an auto-bet at home anymore.

Given that, I like the Browns this week as they are in a good spot. While the Bengals have to go to New Orleans next week, the Browns host the mediocre Texans, which is going to be a much smaller distraction. Teams are 49-35 ATS as divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008. Going off that, teams are 60-98 ATS since 2010 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. The Browns should be the right side and if this line moves to a touchdown before game time it might become a medium confidence pick.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +6.5

Confidence: Low

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bengals, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1)

Overall on the season, the Bengals really haven’t played well, as they rank way down at 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 71.36% rate, as opposed to 75.10% for their opponents, a differential of -3.74%. However, they’ve been much better at home, moving the chains at a 78.83% rate, as opposed to 73.28% for their opponents, a differential of 5.55%. This is nothing new for them as, since the start of last season, the Bengals are 11-1-1 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.85 points per game, going 11-2 against the spread.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 65.82% rate, as opposed to 72.73% for their opponents, a differential of -6.90%. Given that and how well the Bengals play at home, this 10.5 point line is justified, but we’re not getting the same kind of line value as we normally do with the Bengals at home because they’re still so overrated. They overall aren’t as good as their record and, while they are expected to get AJ Green back, there’s no guarantee he’ll be anything other than a decoy in his first game back from a toe injury. The Bengals are also missing several other key players, including Kevin Zeitler, Vontaze Burfict, and Giovani Bernard.

The Bengals are in a bad spot with a Thursday Night Game with the Browns coming up. Favorites are 35-56 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night Game. The Jaguars aren’t in a much better spot though with a game in London against the Cowboys on deck. Teams are 40-84 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs (the early line is currently 10.5). That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, I think it’s both. I’m going with the Bengals, but I’m not confident at all.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -10.5

Confidence: None 

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Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Bengals, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-2-1)

The Bengals were embarrassed on the road in Indianapolis last week, getting blown out by the final score of 27-0. Now they’re favored to beat the 5-2 Ravens. You should put all your money on Baltimore as underdogs right? Well, that’s ignoring the Bengals’ home dominance and the Ravens’ recent road struggles. Since the start of last season, the Bengals are 10-1-1 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 13.67 points per game, going 10-2 against the spread. Meanwhile, while the Ravens are 44-10 at home since the start of the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.52 points per game, they are just 32-30 on the road over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.34 points per game.

On top of that, the Bengals are in the much better spot as they have a very easy game up next when they host the Jaguars, while the Ravens next play the Steelers. Teams are 46-31 ATS since 2008 as divisional home favorites before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008, a situation that the Bengals fit. On top of that, teams are 68-53 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2002.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a big play on the Bengals. For one, the Ravens are in a big revenge spot as divisional road underdogs are 51-26 ATS against teams that they previously lost to as home favorites that season. Meaning, if two evenly matched divisional opponents meet and the road underdog win, the losing teams usually gets the other team back the next time they play as long as it’s that same season. Not only do they cover about 2/3rds of the time, but they also straight up win half the time, even as underdogs.

The second reason is that, at least this season, the Ravens have been significantly better than the Bengals. The Ravens are moving the chains at a 77.35% rate, as opposed to 70.53% for their opponents, a differential of 6.82% that ranks 3rd in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Bengals are moving the chains at a 70.65% rate, as opposed to 75.57% for their opponents, a differential of -4.91% that ranks 27th in the NFL. Sure, it was significantly different last season, but both teams have undergone significant changes in their coaching staffs. I’m still going with the Bengals at home though. They’ve moved the chains at a 79.63% rate, as opposed to 73.79% for their opponents, at home this season, which is very good.

Cincinnati Bengals 19 Baltimore Ravens 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -1

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bengals, Colts, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (3-1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2)

The Bengals played the Panthers to a tie last week and now they have to go on the road to Indianapolis. That puts them at a disadvantage rest wise, for obvious reasons. Ties are rare so there isn’t a big sample size, but teams are 5-9 ATS off of a tie since 1989, including 0-5 ATS on the road, all of which makes sense. Making matters worse, the Colts are coming off of a Thursday Night game so they’ve had extra rest and the Colts are much better at home than the Bengals are on the road. Since the start of the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era in 2012, the Colts are 13-6 ATS at home. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 3-6-1 on the road since the start of last season, including losses in 2013 to non-playoff teams like Cleveland, Miami, Chicago, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh and a close call in Buffalo.

This line is also suggesting that these two teams are even and that’s not true right now, even before you take into account the Colts’ home dominance, the Bengals’ road struggles, or the rest factor. The Colts are arguably the best team in the NFL right now, or at least they’ve played like it through 6 games. With the exception of a 3 point home loss as 3 point home favorites to the Eagles, the Colts have covered every game this season. Both of their losses came against teams that currently have one loss and they came by a combined 10 points.

Andrew Luck is playing like the type of quarterback he was expected to become, completing 66.2% of his passes for an average 7.64 YPA, 17 touchdowns, 7 interceptions. He’s also rushed for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground on 26 carries. The defense has held up as well. Through 6 games, they are moving the chains at a 79.04% rate, as opposed to 70.65% for their opponents, a differential of 8.39% that is best in the NFL by close to 2 percentage points (6.69% is the next best).

Meanwhile, the Bengals rank 21st. They are moving the chains at a 74.39% rate, as opposed to 75.69%, a differential of -1.30%. They were a lot better last season, finishing 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential and they could still play a lot better this season, but it’s possible that the off-season losses of both coordinators Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer as well as talented defensive starter Michael Johnson are too much for them, as their defense has been the unit that’s disappointed the most. They could bounce back long-term, but I’m not betting on them on the road in Indianapolis as mere field goal underdogs when the Colts have the rest advantage. The Colts are the easy play here.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -3

Confidence: High

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Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bengals, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (3-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

The Bengals got destroyed last week by the Patriots, who got destroyed the previous week by the Chiefs, and now they’re without AJ Green, after already being without Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert. How will they be able to bounce back? Well, for one thing, they’re getting Vontaze Burfict and possibly Kevin Zeitler back from injury. Those guys don’t put up the flashy fantasy stats that AJ Green does, but those are valuable members of their team returning to or possibly returning to action. Two, and more importantly, they return home, where they have been incredible over the past two seasons.

The Bengals have not only won 11 straight regular season home games, but they’ve also covered all 11 and won by an average of 17.00 points per game. The Bengals have already destroyed both the Titans and Falcons in Cincinnati this year, by scores of 26 and 14 respectively. Carolina is better than Tennessee, but they’re comparable to Atlanta. The team that went 12-4 last season is gone as a result of all their off-season losses and the suspension of Greg Hardy and now what’s left is an average team that could easily become Cincinnati’s next blowout victim at home.

The AJ Green injury is one reason this isn’t a bigger play. The other reason is that the Bengals have a tougher game on deck as they head to Indianapolis next week for a game that almost definitely will have some sort of playoff seeding implications. Teams are 70-100 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs. The Bengals are still the play here as mere 6.5 point favorites.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bengals, Patriots, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (3-0) at New England Patriots (2-2)

The Patriots are in three spots this week that have easily been auto-bets for them in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. They are 1.5 point underdogs here at home. They are coming off of a loss. And they are facing an opponent with a better record than them. Tom Brady is 31-15 ATS off of a loss in his career. Brady is also 42-18 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points in his career. This is just the 6th time the Patriots have been home underdogs since 2002. So far, they are 3-1 ATS and 3-1 straight up. Finally, he’s 30-10-1 ATS in his career against teams that have better records than his, including 18-6 ATS as an underdog. Possibly even crazier, he’s 29-12 straight up in that situation, a winning percentage of 70.7%. The rest of the league wins at a 38.6% rate.

The Patriots haven’t looked good at all this season. They rank 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 66.96% rate, as opposed to 72.00% for their opponents. That rate of moving the chains is 29th in the NFL, meaning only 3 teams are moving the chains at a worse rate than the New England Patriots. Those three teams include two that have benched their starting quarterback (Buffalo and Jacksonville) and one that has fired their head coach (Oakland). Not exactly good company. However, I don’t think they’re nearly as bad as they’ve looked. They still have a ton of talent on paper. They won’t be nearly this bad all season.

It helps them that they return home here. They’ve played just 1 home game out of 4 so far and that was week 3 after starting the season with two road games. They didn’t cover as 14 point favorites against the Raiders that week, but teams that start with two straight road games more often than not don’t cover week 3 at home. The Patriots have still won 10 straight home games and 12 of their last 13, going 9-4 ATS over that time period. Unlike the last time they are at home, they’re in a very good spot this week, and I’m not just referring to the trends I mentioned earlier. They have no distractions on the horizon with a trip to Buffalo on deck. They should be at least 3 point road favorites in that game and teams are 71-47 ATS before being 3+ point road favorites since 2012. On top of that, teams are 66-42 ATS as home underdogs before being road favorites since 2002.

While the Patriots have been having recent success at home, the Bengals have had issues on the road over the past couple of seasons. While they have covered in all 10 home games over the past two seasons, they are 3-5-1 ATS and 4-5 straight up on the road. That included losses in 2013 to non-playoff teams like Cleveland, Miami, Chicago, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh and a close call in Buffalo. They won in Baltimore week 1, but they only moved the chains at a 62.96% rate, as opposed to 75.68% for the Ravens. Ordinarily, I’d be more confident in the Patriots in this spot, but, again, they’ve really struggled this season. That being said, I think this line has moved far enough that we’re actually getting some value with the Patriots right now, so I think they should be the right side.

New England Patriots 23 Cincinnati Bengals 16 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: New England +1.5

Confidence: High

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Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bengals, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-0)

The Bengals beat the Falcons 24-10 last week in Cincinnati, making it 10 straight regular season home games that they’ve not only won but covered, winning by an average of 16.1 points per game. They moved the chains at a 75.00% rate, as opposed to 64.51% for their opponents, the 4th best differential of the week. They should be able to do the same thing this week against an average at best Tennessee team. AJ Green is expected to play after missing most of last week’s blowout victory with injury.

The Bengals are also in a good spot going into a bye. They’ll be completely focused. Teams are 67-28 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point favorite going into a bye, including 52-17 ATS at home. Here as 7 point favorites, I really like the Bengals’ chances of covering. While the Bengals are in a good spot, the Titans aren’t as they have to go to Indianapolis next week, which is an equally big, if not bigger game. Non-divisional road underdogs are 49-77 ATS before being a divisional road underdog since 2002. This has all the makings of a blowout.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Tennessee Titans 10

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -7

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bengals, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-0)

I had the Bengals going 12-4 before the season started. I thought they were better than their record last season because they were able to be a dominant team (11-5) without relying on always winning the turnover battle. Turnover margins are really unpredictable and inconsistent on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis. They finished 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential at 7.81%, behind only Denver and New Orleans, thanks to a league best defense that only allowed opponents to move the chains at a 65.68% rate and an above average offense that moved the chains at a 73.49% rate, 12th in the NFL.

The Bengals’ performance week 1 only solidifies that prediction as they were able to get a tough road win against a Baltimore team that is 42-10 at home since 2008, something that gave them problems last season. On the road last season, they went 3-5 and 2-5-1 ATS. That included losses to non-playoff teams like Cleveland, Miami, Chicago, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh and a close call in Buffalo. Now they return home where they were incredible last season.

They went undefeated at home last season in the regular season, doing so by an average of 17.62 points per game and covering all 8 times, until that playoff loss to the Chargers. They should be able to maintain that home dominance this week against an Atlanta team that has had issues outdoors in recent years and that might be a little overconfident coming off of that win against New Orleans in overtime (teams are 35-49 ATS off of a win by 1-3 points as divisional dogs since 2008). The Falcons are also now missing Jake Matthews with an injury, after losing Sam Baker before the season started, which is forcing them to start Gabe Carimi and Lamar Holmes at tackle. This line should be a lot higher than 5.

Cincinnati Bengals 31 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -5

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bengals, Ravens, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)

This game is between two teams in the Ravens and the Bengals who are much better at home than on the road. The Ravens are 41-9 at home since 2008, Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh’s first season with the team. As a result, they are 19-10 ATS as home favorites of less than 7 or home underdogs. Meanwhile, the Bengals went undefeated at home last season in the regular season, doing so by an average of 17.62 points per game and covering all 8 times. On the road, however, they went 3-5 and 2-5-1 ATS. That included losses to non-playoff teams like Cleveland, Miami, Chicago, and Pittsburgh and a close call in Buffalo.

The Bengals also lost last year in Baltimore and I don’t see why this season would be much different. The Bengals were better than their 11-5 record last season, finishing 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, but that wasn’t the case on the road and, if anything, they’re less talented than last season with Anthony Collins, Michael Johnson, and Mike Zimmer gone. Geno Atkins returning from injury should help, but he’s a question mark in terms of his abilities in his first game back. Meanwhile, the Ravens should be better this season. I like them to once again defend their home field here and beat Cincinnati.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Cincinnati Bengals 10

Pick against spread: Baltimore -1

Confidence: High

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