Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals

Last week: 15 (+3)

Record: 9-6

Net points per drive: 0.44 (7th)

DVOA: 4.4% (13th)

Weighted DVOA: 14.2% (7th)

Studs

LT Andrew Whitworth: Did not allow a pressure on 48 pass block snaps

RT Andre Smith: Did not allow a pressure on 48 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempt

WR AJ Green: Caught 10 passes for 116 yards on 18 attempts on 48 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops

CB Leon Hall: Did not allow a catch on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes, no tackles, 1 penalty

SS Reggie Nelson: Did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist

LE Carlos Dunlap: 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 26 pass rush snaps, 2 batted passes, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Michael Johnson: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops

DT Geno Atkins: 4 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops

P Kevin Huber: 6 punts for 316 yards, 4 inside 20, 2 returns for 6 yards, 48.3 net yards per punt

Duds

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis: Rushed for 14 yards (16 after contact) on 15 attempts, 1 broken tackles, allowed 1 sack on 15 pass block snaps, caught 1 pass for 0 yards on 1 attempt

RG Kevin Zeitler: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 48 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 10 yards on 5 attempts

C Kyle Cook: Allowed 2 sacks on 48 pass block snaps, run blocked for -3 yards on 6 attempts

WR Andrew Hawkins: Caught 3 passes for 30 yards on 7 attempts on 32 pass snaps, 2.3 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

MLB Rey Maualuga: 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 29 yards on 5 attempts

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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bengals, Steelers

Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)

Apparently the roof is falling in Pittsburgh. They’ve gone from favored by 4.5 to favored by 3 (passing two key numbers) and the public is still on Cincinnati. Why? Because they lost in overtime in Dallas in a game that was meaningless for them because they still control their own destiny? Because they lost another game as non-divisional road favorites (5-16 ATS under Mike Tomlin, which has generally been an overall successful tenure)?

While they’ve generally struggled outside of the division as road favorites, they always seem to win these divisional games. They’re 52-33 ATS in the division since 2000, including 19-7 ATS against these Bengals. Speaking of these Bengals, they’ve had a lot of issues against playoff caliber opponents. Andy Dalton was 0-8 against playoff teams last year and he’s just 2-4 against playoff contending teams this season. In all other games over the past 2 seasons, he’s 15-2.

In those 14 games, Dalton is a combined 291 of 498 (58.4%) for 3217 yards (6.5 YPA), 18 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. In the other 17 games, he’s 331 of 532 (62.2%) for 3751 yards (6.5 YPA), 28 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. He’s never beaten the Ravens and Steelers and he’s been terrible in those 6 games, going 108 of 208 (51.9%) for 1236 yards (5.9 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He’s never even covered in those 6 games.

We are getting line value with the Bengals, as they rank 7th in net points per drive at 0.49, while the Steelers rank 13th at 0.10. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Cincinnati should actually be favored by 2. That holds up to DVOA, in which the Bengals rank 12th in regular and 7th in weighted, while the Steelers rank 17th in regular and 15th in weighted.

However, it’s worth noting that the Steelers are probably healthier now than they’ve been all year, even with Ike Taylor out. LaMarr Woodley, James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, and Ben Roethlisberger are all healthy at the time same for the first time all season. That was the case last week, but they just didn’t seem to care about that game nearly as much as Dallas. This week, I’m expecting one of their best performances of the year.

Teams do tend to struggle off a road overtime loss. If you exclude road dogs (because road dogs tend to cover off a road loss, in general), teams are 21-47 ATS off a road overtime loss since 2002, including 11-24 ATS as home favorites. However, at the end of the day, I’d have to see Andy Dalton beat a quality opponent in a big game to believe it. The Steelers are underrated and the Bengals are a public dog, and I love fading the public because they always lose money in the long run, especially public dogs. Besides, at the end of the day, I trust Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers to win an important game much more than I trust the Bengals and as long as I’m getting field goal protection, it’s a significant play.

Public lean: Cincinnati (60% range)

Sharps lean: CIN 17 PIT 10

Final thoughts: Even though it’s not a heavy lean, it’s worth noting it’s at -4 in the Supercontest. I like Pittsburgh a lot at -3. I’ll believe Andy Dalton can beat a quality team in a big game when I see it.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -3 (-110) 3 units

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Cincinnati Bengals: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals

Last week: 14 (-1)

Record: 8-6

Net points per drive: 0.49 (7th)

DVOA: 4.4% (12th)

Weighted DVOA: 14.6% (7th)

The Bengals are 8-6 and control their own destiny for a playoff spot, but their struggles against playoff caliber opponents should be their undoing. Andy Dalton was 0-8 against playoff teams last year and he’s just 2-4 against playoff contending teams this season. In all other games over the past 2 seasons, he’s 15-2. The Ravens and Steelers, against whom he is 0-6, should finish this team at 8-8 and end their playoff hopes.

Studs

C Kyle Cook: Did not allow a pressure on 23 pass block snaps, run blocked for 38 yards on 7 attempts

CB Terence Newman: Allowed 2 catches for 14 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

QB Andy Dalton: 13 of 27 for 127 yards and a touchdown, 2 throw aways, 1 drop, 60.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 15 of 36 drop backs (6 sacks, 3 scrambles, 1 of 6, 2 throw aways)

LG Clint Boling: Allowed 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 3 attempts

RT Andre Smith: Allowed 3 sacks and 4 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 7 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts

WR Marvin Jones: Did not catch a pass on 3 attempts on 34 pass snaps, 1 penalty

WR Andrew Hawkins: Did not catch a pass on 1 attempt on 28 pass snaps

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Cincinnati Bengals: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#14)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals

Last week: 14 (+1)

Record: 7-6

Net points per drive: 0.44 (8th)

DVOA: 4.7% (12th)

Weighted DVOA: 13.2% (9th)

Bottom line, it won’t matter what they do in either of their other two games if they can’t win in Pittsburgh week 16. I don’t think they can and while I’m at it, I think they lose at home for the Ravens week 17. This is a team who has had a lot of issues beating playoff caliber opponents over the past 2 seasons. The Eagles next week should be easier, but weird things happen on Thursday Nights.

Studs

RT Andre Smith: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 3 attempts

CB Terence Newman: Allowed 2 catches for 20 yards on 7 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

FS Chris Crocker: 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes, did not allow a catch on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection

SS Reggie Nelson: Allowed 2 catches for 40 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty, 1 sack on 5 blitzes

DT Geno Atkins: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback hurries on 38 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 4 stops

DT Domata Peko: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 19 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

RE Wallace Gilberry: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 17 pass rush snaps, 2 assists

K Josh Brown: 6 kickoffs, 5 touchbacks, 70.8 yards per kickoff, 19.7 opponent’s average starting distance, 4/4 FG (25, 25, 33, 52)

Duds

LG Clint Boling: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

WR AJ Green: Caught 3 passes for 44 yards on 8 attempts on 41 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to, 2 drops, 1 penalty

MLB Rey Maualuga: 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 6 catches for 46 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection

DT Pat Sims: Did not record a pressure on 14 pass rush snaps, no solo tackles

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Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bengals, Eagles

Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-9)

After the Eagles’ 31-6 loss in Washington week 11, I assumed the Eagles had quit. They were losers of 6 straight, including 4 or more by 13 or more. It was Andy Reid’s first 6 game losing streak of his career and a team that had always gotten better as the season wore on and always played well when their backs were against the wall was no longer doing that. I picked them against Washington because all the trends said they should cover the spread, but they got blown out. News broke that Andy Reid was hesitant to bench Michael Vick for Nick Foles earlier in the year for fear that most of the veterans would quit on the team and it looked like, after Foles’ first career start, that had happened.

I was hesitant to bet heavily against the Eagles the following week against Carolina because I felt it was such an overreaction line and because I thought maybe the Eagles would give a damn on national TV as home dogs against a 2 win Panthers team. I even picked them the following week for a small play against the Cowboys because all the trends said so and because I felt that they’d once again give a damn in a nationally televised game as big underdogs against a division rival, but I refused to take them last week in a non-televised game in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers, who they shouldn’t really care about. I knew there was a strong chance they would go back to not caring, though I didn’t make a big play on Tampa Bay either.

The Eagles not only covered the 7.5 point spread in Tampa Bay, but beat the formerly 6-6 Buccaneers, a team who hasn’t lost by more than 8 points all season, who should be better than their record. With the exception of Nick Foles first NFL start, the Eagles are actually playing legitimately decent football right now. That loss to Washington is excusable now as it was just Foles’ first NFL start. In 3 games since, he’s 70 of 105 (66.7%) for 751 yards (7.2 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He’s faced the 16th, 25th, and 30th ranked defense over those 3 games, but that’s still impressive.

Bryce Brown is running better than LeSean McCoy had all year and some of the young players like him and Foles are playing really hard now that they’re getting a chance and veterans who didn’t give a damn like Jason Babin have been let go or have been benched or gotten injured. Also let go was defensive line coach Jim Washburn and not so coincidentally, they had one of their best defensive games of the season last week. Not only are they no longer unbettable, but they might be underrated right now. If Foles keeps playing like this, Andy Reid might keep his job.

The Eagles are still irrelevant enough for the Bengals to potentially overlook them, which is a good thing for the Eagles. No one is really talking about the Eagles positively; after all, that was their first win in 2 months, but they should be. This line hasn’t shifted at all in the last week and the Bengals are still 4.5 point road favorites. The net points per drive method of computing real line says this line should actually be -7, but, remember, the Eagles were complete garbage for at least 6 weeks in a row.

As I mentioned, the Bengals will probably overlook the Eagles. After this game, they have to go to Pittsburgh and then home for the Ravens. Why would they care about a 4-9 non-conference opponent? If they lose week 16, they’re basically out of the playoffs almost no matter what and vice versa they can also lose this game and make the playoffs if they win in Pittsburgh next week.  Here’s a trend that puts that into numbers. Non-conference favorites are 32-63 ATS before being divisional dogs since 2002, including 4-15 ATS as road non-conference favorites. If we go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size, teams are 12-31 ATS as road non-conference favorites before being divisional dogs.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are in a good spot. Teams are 31-19 ATS off a close (1-3 points) road win as non-divisional touchdown dogs since 1989, including 19-9 ATS as dogs and 10-4 ATS as home dogs. I guess the momentum of a big win carries over so long as they are still dogs and the win was non-divisional (for the opposite of this, the Steelers were completely flat last week as favorites off a close road divisional win as touchdown dogs).

Normally I like to take favorites on Thursday nights as favorites. Favorites tend to cover as favorites tend to be more veteran teams and more prepared for the short week. I’m not taking the Bengals for two reasons. One, they’re on the road, which cancels that out. Two, while they are favorites, they aren’t exactly a veteran team. Andy Dalton is a 2nd year quarterback and I think it’s risky to take a 2nd year quarterback as 4.5 point road favorites on a short week, even against a rookie like Nick Foles.

He could be really unprepared in his first Thursday game and it’s not like he’s done well in primetime games so far in his career. They were blown out by the Ravens 44-13 week 1 on Monday Night football and then lost at home 24-17 to the Steelers on Sunday Night football a few weeks later. Andy Dalton is a combined 36 of 65 for 326, 1 touchdown, and 2 picks in those 2 games, though he wasn’t exactly facing friendly defenses. Finally, I also like that we’re getting a chance to fade the public with the Eagles as the Bengals are a fairly significant public lean. The public always loses money in the long run.

This would be a bigger play on the Eagles if it weren’t for a few things. One, Andy Dalton has been very good against non-playoff teams in his short career. He’s 10-4 (8-4-2 ATS) against teams with a losing record. He was a perfect 9-0 against non-playoff teams last year and this year I count he’s 6-3. However, the 4.5 point spread leaves enough of a window to play with if the Bengals do end up winning. Two, I’ve been really bad at Thursday Night games this year. It’s possible that you just can’t handicap them using traditional methods. It’s always risky taking a rookie on a Thursday night too, even at home as 4.5 point home dogs against a 2nd year quarterback who has never played on a Thursday.

Three, the Eagles are playing a Thursday Night game 3 weeks after a Monday Night game, which means they will have played 4 games in 17 days. It might not be a huge difference as the Bengals will have played 4 in 18, but the Ravens almost lost at home to the Browns in this spot earlier this year and the Seahawks really struggled to get things going offensively in San Francisco and shouldn’t have covered the 7.5 point spread in this spot earlier this year (the game Harbaugh declined the safety in). I also like the under, especially with two young quarterbacks. The under is 74-55 on Thursday Nights, including 9-3 this year if you exclude Thanksgiving.

Public lean: Cincinnati (70% range)

Philadelphia Eagles 17 Cincinnati Bengals 16 Upset Pick +180

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +4.5 (-110) 3 units

Total: Under 45 (-110) 1 unit

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Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bengals, Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys (6-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)

Someone check me for a concussion because I like the Bengals this week. It’s not that the Bengals are bad or anything, but I just haven’t picked them yet this year. It’s nothing against them or anything and I haven’t really been missing out as they’re just 6-6 ATS, but for whatever reason, I’ve never seen Cincinnati as the right side yet this season.

This week, I do. It’s not so much about the Bengals as it is about the Cowboys. The Cowboys really are not a very good team this year and this line says these two teams are comparable, which I don’t find to be true. The Cowboys really struggle as home favorites since Cowboys stadium opened in 2009, going 9-17 ATS. The opposite happens somewhat when they are road dogs, but not a ton as they are 10-6 ATS since 2009 as road dogs.

However, Tony Romo is awful in week 14 or later, going 10-20 ATS in his career. The Bengals, meanwhile, are 4-12 ATS as home favorites since 2009, but 3-4 ATS since Andy Dalton took over. That doesn’t sound like much, but it’s definitely worth noting that they always kill non-playoff teams. Last year, they went 9-0 against non-playoff teams (and 0-8 against playoff teams).

This year, I believe they are 6-2 against non-playoff teams and 1-3 against teams I think will make the playoffs (they beat Giants/Redskins, one of which will make the playoffs, and lost to Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Denver). The Cowboys definitely would seem to fall into the non-playoff category, so the Bengals should be able to win. This is a pretty small line, so that matters.

Speaking of this line, as I mentioned, it’s too small. These two teams are not equal. Net points per drive backs this up. The Bengals rank 7th at 0.48, while the Cowboys rank 17th at -0.08. If you take the difference and multiply by 11 (the average number of drives per team per game) and add 3 points for home field, you get Cincinnati -9.

DVOA seems to support this as the Bengals rank 12th, but 9th in weighted DVOA, which gives higher weight to more recent games. The Cowboys, meanwhile, rank 16th, but 19th in weighted. They’re just not a very good team and they’re not going to get better now that it’s December. We also get to fade a public dog, however small, by taking Cincinnati. It’s a small play on the Bengals.

Public lean: Dallas (50% range)

Sharps lean: DAL 19 CIN 10

Final thoughts: I’m dropping down to 1 unit. Like Chiefs/Panthers last week, I have no idea how the death of teammate Jerry Brown in a drunk driving accident with teammate Josh Brent as the driver will affect this team. There’s no one way tragic events effect teams, so I’m dropping down because I have zero confidence in either side now.

Final thoughts II: For purely confidence pools purposes, I’m going to go with the Cowboys money line in this one. I don’t love either side because we don’t know how the Cowboys’ tragedy will effect this one, but I’d rather have Dallas +155 than Cincinnati -3 in what should be a true toss up. It also feels better to be on the side of the Cowboys after what happened yesterday and on a small pick that doesn’t really matter and that counts for something.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Dallas +3 (-110) 0 units

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Cincinnati Bengals: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals

Last week: 19 (-4)

Record: 7-5

Net points per drive: 0.48 (7th)

DVOA: 3.0% (12th)

Weighted DVOA: 11.0% (9th)

Studs

LT Andrew Whitworth: Did not allow a pressure on 42 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

LG Clint Boling: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts

RG Kevin Zeitler: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 3 attempts

RT Andre Smith: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 70 yards on 6 attempts

LE Carlos Dunlap: 2 sacks and 5 quarterback hurries on 47 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle,3 stops

DT Geno Atkins: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback hurries on 42 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

Duds

WR Marvin Jones: Caught 2 passes for 20 yards on 3 attempts on 41 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to

LOLB Vontaze Burfict: Allowed 6 catches for 62 yards on 9 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 4 assists, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

WR Brandon Tate: 3 kickoff returns for 56 yards, 1 fumble, 1 punt return for 16 yards

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Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bengals, Chargers

Cincinnati Bengals (6-5) at San Diego Chargers (4-7)

Last week, I took the Chargers for a big play for several reasons. Philip Rivers was 31-19 ATS in week 11 or later. In the last 3 years, as mediocre as they’ve been, they were still 10-5 ATS in week 11 or later, including a cover the week before in Denver. As underdogs, as they were last week, Rivers was 12-4 ATS in week 11 or later, including 3-0 ATS as home dogs. I also felt the Ravens were not as good as their record and I noted their struggles as non-divisional road favorites in the last 2 seasons, going 1-5 ATS in those spots, including a loss in almost exactly this same situation in San Diego the year before.

Well, I thought I had it perfectly handicapped. The Chargers led throughout, including 13-3 with a few minutes left in the game. The Ravens a scored to make it 13-10, but the Chargers had the ball and a 3 point lead with about 4 minutes left. That is 4 minute offense time, go conservative and try to run as much as much time off the clock as you can. Norv Turner, instead, passed on 2nd and 3rd down and the Ravens got the ball back quickly with time to do damage.

However, good defense by the Chargers had the Ravens backed up to 4th and 29 and unless the Ravens could convert, they would lose and I would cover. So what happened? Flacco dropped back, all of his receivers were covered downfield, so he checked down to Ray Rice who broke about 4 tackles and somehow converted for 30 yards. Or did he? Replays showed he was short, but on review, the refs upheld the call. The Ravens drove down for a field goal and then won it late in overtime. It was an infuriating loss for me on a bad week.

That being said, I still feel like the Chargers were the right side, but they just got unlucky and this week, I once again feel they are the right side. We’re getting line value with the Chargers. Last week, this line was San Diego -3. Now it’s Cincinnati -2.5. That’s a 5.5 point swing. For what? Because the Bengals blew out the crappy Raiders? The Ravens did that too. Because the Chargers barely lost to the Ravens? This makes no sense. The Ravens were only -1.5 in San Diego and they barely covered. This line suggests the Bengals are better than the Ravens. I know I’ve been on record calling the Ravens overrated many times, but when the Ravens and Bengals played, the Bengals lost by like 30. There’s no way they’re better than them.

The net points per drive method of computing line value gives us a real line of Cincinnati -1.5, which means that because of the line movement, we are now getting line value. The Bengals rank 8th in net points per drive at .4 (net points per drive being offensive points divided by total drives minus defensive points allowed divided by total drives). The Chargers are 16th at -0.03. If you take the difference and multiply by 11 (average drives per game) and add 3 points for homefield, you get around Cincinnati -1.5. In spite of the huge line movement, the public is still pounding the Bengals. This is significant because the public always loses in the long run, so fading the public in the long run makes sense. I do it whenever I feel it’s appropriate.

Oh and all of those trends I mentioned earlier when talking about last week that were in the Chargers’ favor, those are still in play here. Philip Rivers is 31-20 ATS in week 11 or later. In the last 3 years, as mediocre as they’ve been, they’re still 10-6 ATS in week 11 or later. As underdogs, as they are here, Rivers is 12-5 ATS in week 11 or later, including 3-1 ATS as home dogs. They’re even better in week 13 or later, going 23-14 ATS in the Philip Rivers era, including 8-2 ATS as dogs, 2-0 ATS as home dogs.

Actually, because they lost last week, it opens up a few other trends. Home dogs tend to cover off a loss as home dogs, going 59-40 ATS since 2002. Meanwhile, teams are 26-10 ATS since 2002 off a loss at home in overtime, excluding road dogs. Home dogs are 8-1 ATS off a loss at home in overtime since 1989, including 5-0 ATS off a loss as home dogs. Once again, it’s a big play on the Chargers.

Public lean: Cincinnati (70% range)

Sharps lean: CIN 20 SD 5

Final update: This is one where I’m going to disagree with the sharps.

San Diego Chargers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 17 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: San Diego +2.5 (-110) 4 units

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Cincinnati Bengals: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals

Last week: 20 (+1)

Record: 6-5

Net points per drive: 0.4 (8th)

DVOA: 4.6% (10th)

Weighted DVOA: 7.9% (10th)

Tier 5: Teams many predicted to make the playoffs at the beginning of the season, but that are long shots now

Studs

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis: Rushed for 129 yards (35 after contact) and a touchdown on 19 attempts, allowed 1 sack on 6 pass block snaps, caught 1 pass for 9 yards on 1 attempt

RB Cedric Peerman: Rushed for 61 yards (49 after contact) on 8 attempts, 4 broken tackles

LT Andrew Whitworth: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

RG Kevin Zeitler: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 22 yards on 4 attempts

WR AJ Green: Caught 3 passes for 111 yards on 8 attempts on 33 pass snaps, 16.3 YAC per catch, 1 drop

DT Geno Atkins: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 8 quarterback hurries on 33 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 4 stops

RE Michael Johnson: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 stop

LE Carlos Dunlap: 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

Duds

LG Clint Boling: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 53 yards on 6 attempts

RT Andre Smith: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 34 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 56 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts

LE Robert Geathers: Did not record a pressure on 24 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

MLB Rey Maualuga: 4 solo tackles, 4 assists, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit on 8 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 27 yards on 5 attempts

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Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bengals, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (3-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)

Every year, one team goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. The Bengals now stand at 5-5, but I won’t rule out them losing out. The Lions at 4-6 are the favorite this year and I also won’t rule out that we won’t have one this year (only happened once in the last decade).  However, looking at the Bengals’ remaining schedule, they’re only definitely going to be favored in one more game, this one at home for Oakland. At Philadelphia and home for Dallas are other options, but if they lost this week, they could conceivably, but improbably, lose out.

Will they lose at home this week to the Raiders? I won’t say it’s impossible. Teams are 36-16 ATS off back-to-back losses by 21 or more since 2002, and the Raiders have lost 55-20 and 38-17 in their last two games. Teams tend to be embarrassed, playing for pride, undervalued, and overlooked by their opponent in this spot. That trend is actually a perfect 4-0 ATS and SU this year and has led to such upsets as Tennessee over Detroit, Tennessee over Pittsburgh, Buffalo over Arizona, and last week’s NY Jets over St. Louis. This line has shifted 2.5 points in the last week (from -5.5 to -8), so the Raiders are definitely undervalued. In spite of this, the public is still on the Bengals, important since the odds makers desperately need to make money back after a bad 3 week stretch, though it’s not a huge lean.

The Raiders are also dogs before being favorites. Teams are 96-53 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons. They host the crappy Browns next week, so they’ll be completely focused for the Bengals this week in a pride game. I can’t say the Bengals will be completely focused for them, however. The Raiders certainly don’t scare anyone right now and the Bengals have to go to San Diego next week, where they will almost definitely be underdogs. Teams are 111-56 ATS since 2008 as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will be dogs the following week, including 34-13 ATS when all three games (the current game, their next game, and their opponent’s next game) are all non-divisional. This game simply means different things to these two teams.

Besides, the Bengals tend to disappoint as favorites. Since 2007, they are 6-14 ATS as home favorites. Even in the last two years, when young Andy Dalton has had a ton of success against non-playoff teams (9-0 last year against non-playoff teams, 4-2 this year against teams currently outside of the playoffs), they are just 2-4 ATS as home favorites. In total in the Marvin Lewis era (going back to 2003), they are 14-25 ATS as home favorites, including just 3-9 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more.

We’re also getting some line value with the Bengals. The yards per play differential method of computing line value says this line should be Cincinnati -5.5 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method says this line should be Cincinnati -7, both of which are lower than this -8 line. 8 points seems like too many points even if the Raiders didn’t have a significant trends advantage.

The Raiders should cover this spread and there’s a decent chance they could even win this game. This would be a bigger play on the Raiders if it wasn’t for 3 things. First, the Raiders have burned me twice in the last 2 weeks, though I never really let this scare me off, any team can cover at any time and the Raiders are undervalued and possibly very embarrassed. I say possibly because there’s a chance they may have quit on their Head Coach, which is the 2nd reason, but they have a 1st year Head Coach so it’s unlikely they’ve already quit. Third, and most significantly, the Raiders have to travel as a West Coast team to the Eastern time zone for a 1 PM start. Teams tend to struggle in this spot. The Raiders are just 7-14 ATS in this situation since 2002. It’s still a significant play on the Raiders.

Public lean: Cincinnati (60% range)

Sharps lean: OAK 9 CIN 2

Final update: All 3 of my co-picks of the week line up with heavy sharps lean. I always have my best weeks when that happens.

Oakland Raiders 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +330

Pick against spread: Oakland +8 (-110) 4 units

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