Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals

Last week: 18 (-3)

Record: 3-2

Last week I noted that, assuming Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Washington don’t make the playoffs and Baltimore does, the Bengals were 12-0 against non-playoff teams since Andy Dalton took over week 1 last year, and 0-10 against playoff teams. Well, unless Miami is a playoff team, that spotless record seems to be gone. I had the Bengals as an overrated team coming into the season because of their struggles against good teams and now they appear to be overrated once again. Look at who they’ve beaten, Washington (2-3), Cleveland (0-5), and Jacksonville (1-4). The latter two are the two worst teams in these Power Rankings and they only beat Cleveland in Cincinnati by 7.

They’re now a dark horse team in the running to be the team that goes from out of the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer, which is where I had them before the season. After a game in Cleveland this week, potentially a trap game, the Bengals face Pittsburgh, Denver, the Giants, San Diego, Dallas, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore, all of whom could easily make the playoffs. After Cleveland, their only remaining easy opponents are Oakland and Kansas City.

Studs

LT Andrew Whitworth: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 52 pass block snaps

RE Carlos Dunlap: 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 19 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

SS Reggie Nelson: Allowed 2 catches for 8 yards on 2 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

QB Andy Dalton: 26 of 43 for 234 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, 1 drop, 1 batted pass, 66.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 14 of 49 drop backs, (3 scrambles, 3 sacks, 4 of 8)

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis: Rushed for 14 yards (8 yards after contact) on 9 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 2 pass block snaps, caught 1 pass for 2 yards on 2 attempts

WR Andrew Hawkins: Caught 5 passes for 47 yards on 12 attempts on 40 pass snaps, 3.4 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 2 interceptions when thrown to

ROLB Manny Lawson: Allowed 4 catches for 63 yards on 6 attempts, 1 solo tackle

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Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bengals, Dolphins

Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

This is Andy Dalton’s 22nd career start. Assuming Baltimore makes the playoffs and Washington, Jacksonville, and Cleveland don’t, that means that Dalton is 12-0 in his career against non-playoff teams and 0-9 against playoff teams, making the Bengals the definition of average. This week, he plays the Dolphins, who sit at 1-3 and who probably won’t make the playoffs, but they’re hardly a pushover.

They got blown out week 1, but that was Ryan Tannehill’s first career start and it was in Houston and Houston is probably the best team in the league. Since then, they’ve blown out Oakland and lost in overtime to the Jets and Dolphins as underdogs. By the way, they’re just the 7th team since 1989 to lose back to back overtime games (4-2 ATS in their next contest). Last year, they had a Pythagorean Expectation of about 8 wins and won 6, because of a strong defense. They have a strong defense once again this year and that has propelled them to actually rank 8th in the league in yards per play differential.

The Bengals, meanwhile, rank 10th in yards per play differential, which is actually worse than Miami, despite arguably the easier schedule. It’s important to know that the Bengals are finally getting healthy. Carlos Dunlap returned 2 weeks ago to reinvigorate a pass rush that now ranks 4th in pass rush efficiency (the Dolphins do rank 3rd, by the way). Their strong pass rush has helped take some of the pressure off a banged up secondary which used Adam Jones, Terence Newman, and Chris Crocker as its top 3 cornerbacks last week.

Luckily their pass rush abused Blaine Gabbert, who did his thing and stunk up the joint against a very banged up secondary. Tannehill might not have done the same thing, so it’s good that Leon Hall, Nate Clements, and Dre Kirkpatrick are expected back this week (Jason Allen isn’t). It’s worth noting that Hall, still less than 11 months removed from Achilles surgery, did not look like his old self before missing the last 2 games with injuries to that same leg, which is hardly a good sign. Still, this 22nd ranked pass defense should see improvements in the future and this isn’t the same unit that Brandon Weeden torched week 2. They do, however, really struggle against the run, ranking dead last, so Reggie Bush should have a good game, which will make life easier for Tannehill.

Despite Cincinnati’s improving health, there is some line value here. The difference between these two teams’ differentials is 0.2 and an old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and add 3 points in either direction for home field advantage, so this line should be -1.5 in favor of Cincinnati. Of course, that doesn’t take into account Cincinnati’s improving injury situation, but it also doesn’t take into account their cupcake schedule. Despite some line value, the public is still pounding Cincinnati. The common perception is that Miami isn’t very good and Cincinnati should beat them easily. In spite of that, the line is dropping, and pretty significantly (down from -5.5 to -3.5 since it opened), so this has all the makings of a trap line.

Miami also has two powerful trends on their side. They’re dogs before being favorites (they host St. Louis next week). Dogs tend to be extra focused with an easy game on the horizon, going 74-44 ATS in this situation since 2011, including 19-8 ATS off a loss as a dog. Miami is also in their 2nd straight as a road dog off a loss, a situation teams are 59-38 ATS in since 2008. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is just 5-13 ATS as favorites of 3+ since 2007. You might think that would have changed over the last year plus with this team playing so well against bad teams, but actually, they’re just 2-1 ATS in this situation, so it’s hard to say. The only reason this isn’t a big bet is because Miami probably isn’t a playoff team and Andy Dalton never loses to those teams. However, as long as I have field goal protection, it’s a small play on Miami to cover and not win.

Public lean: Cincinnati (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Sharps lean: MIA 7 CIN 18

Final pick: The sharps love Cincinnati this week. Miami feels like the right side, but there’s absolutely no line value here and this is the type of game Cincinnati normally wins. I’m going down to 1 unit. One injury note, Miami will be without #2 cornerback Richard Marshall and Dre Kirkpatrick will not make his debut for Cincinnati.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against spread: Miami +3.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Cincinnati Bengals: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals

Last week: 21 (+3)

Record: 3-1

The Bengals have sufficiently proven they can beat up on crappy teams. Assuming Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Washington don’t make the playoffs and Baltimore does, the Bengals are now 12-0 against non-playoff teams since Andy Dalton took over week 1 last year. Unfortunately, they are also 0-10 against playoff teams so you really have to wonder if they’re anything more than an average team or as Bill Simmons calls them a “good bad team.” Next up on schedule is another likely non-playoff team, Miami, though as Arizona will tell you, they’re not to be taken lightly. Their next test with a likely playoff team is week 7 when they host Pittsburgh. Immediately afterwards, they host the Giants and the Broncos, so that will be their defining stretch. I’m not moving them up much past this until they look good in that stretch. Week 1 was ugly for them.

Studs

LT Andrew Whitworth: Did not allow a pressure on 34 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

LG Clint Boling: Did not allow a pressure on 34 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 attempt

C Jeff Faine: Did not allow a pressure on 34 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 56 yards on 14 attempt

WR AJ Green: Caught 6 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts on 32 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch

CB Terence Newman: Allowed 2 catches for 23 yards on 6 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops

SS Reggie Nelson: Allowed 3 catches for 6 yards on 3 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

DT Geno Atkins: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 6 quarterback hurries on 36 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 3 stops

LE Carlos Dunlap: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 2 stops, 1 penalty

Duds

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis: Rushed for 82 yards (49 yards after contact) on 26 carries, 1 broken tackles, 2 fumbles, caught 2 passes for 12 yards on 3 attempts, 1 drop

MLB Rey Maualuga: 5 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles, 1 quarterback hurry on 7 blitzes, 1 penalty, allowed 3 catches for 26 yards on 4 attempts

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Bengals expected to be without top 4 cornerbacks against Jaguars

stevenlourie Bengals, News

The Cincinnati Bengals rank 28th against the pass this year, allowing 8.5 YPA, and have been torched by every quarterback they’ve faced, including Brandon Weeden, who completed 26 of 37 for 322 yards and 2 scores against them, which represents by far his best statistical game of the season. Injuries have been a huge part of the problem. Cornerbacks Jason Allen and Dre Kirkpatrick have been injured, as has top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap. However, the injury situation has just been getting worse.

Dre Kirkpatrick remains out. Jason Allen and Carlos Dunlap returned last week, but the former lasted just 3 plays before reinjuring himself. He won’t play this week and most likely neither will cornerbacks Leon Hall and Nate Clements. Hall, who tore his Achilles last November, didn’t play last week and is unlikely to play this week. He made a very quick return for his torn Achilles and now is having problems in that same leg, so it’s very possible he came back too quickly. Even before he started missing games, he was getting torched uncharacteristically.

Missing Hall, Clements, Allen, and Kirkpatrick, the Bengals are now missing their top 4 cornerbacks, as well as rookie Shaun Prater, a 5th round pick who has been on IR all year. That leaves the Bengals to start Terence Newman and Adam Jones at cornerback this week with Chris Lewis-Harris working in sub packages. The undrafted rookie Lewis-Harris was just called up off the practice squad this week and could see a serious role this week in his NFL debut.

The good news is that Dunlap came back last week and didn’t have to leave with injury, like Allen. He and Michael Johnson combined for 14 total pressures, including 4 sacks. Dunlap is a great pass rusher, but that game by Johnson was inconsistent with what he normally does so it’s very likely that will be by far the best game of his season. It definitely helped that they were facing Washington’s offensive line, which struggles to begin with and then lost stud left tackle Trent Williams early in the game. This week, they face the Jaguars, who have had their issues in pass protection this year, but they return 2 starters, left guard Eben Britton and right tackle Cameron Bradfield, from injury in this one, which should help.

If Blaine Gabbert can get time, he should be able to move the ball on this pathetic, banged up secondary. He’ll also be aided by what should be a strong performance from Maurice Jones-Drew because the Bengals rank dead last against the run, also thanks to injury, but also some general underachieving in their front 7. This week’s game in Jacksonville isn’t as big as a lock as people think (the public is pounding Cincinnati) and given how well home dogs (which is what Jacksonville is) are playing this year and how much the public is getting killed this year (4-12 on heavy leans), the Bengals should be on upset alert this week.

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Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bengals, Jaguars

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)

Andy Dalton has done a great job of beating up on bad defenses in the last couple of weeks, completing 43 of 58 for 646 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions against Washington and Cleveland. He did that last year as well as he was 9-0 against non-playoff teams, but assuming Washington and Cleveland miss the playoffs and Baltimore makes it, he has yet to beat a single playoff team in his career (0-9). It should be a concern for the Bengals.

However, it shouldn’t be much of a concern this week because Jacksonville isn’t a playoff team either. Their defense isn’t very good and while it was better last week with their secondary healthier, they are still missing Daryl Smith, arguably their best defensive player. The other candidate for their best defensive player is Jeremy Mincey, at least he’s supposed to be. He’s managed just 7 total quarterback pressures on 112 pass rush snaps and has yet to get a sack. He’s a one year wonder because he came out of nowhere last year, so it’s a concern. Andy Dalton and company should have no problem moving the ball against them.

The other concern for the Bengals is their defense. They’ve been torched by every quarterback they’ve faced, even Brandon Weeden, and they rank tied for 30th allowing 34.0 points per game. They also rank 30th in yards per play allowed. While the Jaguars are getting healthier defensively, the Bengals aren’t really. They’ve gotten top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap back and cornerback Jason Allen returned last week too, but he reinjured himself and is unlikely to play in this one.

They’ve also lost starting linebacker Thomas Howard for the season, they’re still without 1st round pick Dre Kirkpatrick, and #1 cornerback Leon Hall is unlikely to play. Hall didn’t play last week either. He’s dealing with leg problems on the same side that he tore his Achilles just 10 months ago. It’s definitely possible he came back too soon. Without Allen, Hall, and Kirkpatrick, the Bengals will rely on a trio of Nate Clements, Terence Newman, and Adam Jones at cornerback, which would have been fine if this was 2006, but it’s not. They don’t have good safeties either so Blaine Gabbert should be able to move the ball on this 28th ranked pass defense.

The one positive defensively for the Bengals last week was their pass rush. Carlos Dunlap returned and he and Michael Johnson combined for 14 total pressures, including 4 sacks. Dunlap is a great pass rusher, but that game by Johnson was inconsistent with what he normally does so it’s very likely that will be by far the best game of his season. It definitely helped that they were facing Washington’s offensive line, which struggles to begin with and then lost stud left tackle Trent Williams early in the game. The Jaguars’ offensive line ranks dead last in pass block efficiency, but they return 2 starters, left guard Eben Britton and right tackle Cameron Bradfield, from injury in this one, which should help. If Gabbert can get time, he should be able to move the ball on this pathetic secondary. He’ll also be aided by what should be a strong performance from Maurice Jones-Drew because the Bengals rank dead last against the run.

If you’re reading the above analysis and thinking, these two teams aren’t that unevenly matched, you’re definitely on to something. The difference between Cincinnati’s and Jacksonville’s yards per play differential is .6. An old gambling formula tells you to divide that by .15 and add 3 points either way to get the “real” line. That suggests that this line should be -1 in favor of the Bengals, instead of -2.5, and that’s not even taking into account the fact that these two teams are going in opposite directions injury wise, so there’s a little bit of line value with the host here.

This was a tough one. On one hand, Andy Dalton has never lost to a non-playoff team in his career going 11-0 if you assume Washington and Cleveland miss the playoffs. Jacksonville is in that bunch. On the other hand, their defense is a mess and they’ve won their last 2 games by just 7 points apiece, including a home contest against the lowly Browns. There’s some line value with the host and the public, by the way, is pounding the Bengals. The public is 4-12 on heavy leans this year and Cincinnati +2.5 here is one of the heaviest leans I’ve seen all year. It has all the making of a trap line.

The general public is sitting at home thinking, “Cincinnati +2.5? All they need to do is beat the Jaguars by 3? Free money.” When in reality, Cincinnati’s defense is so bad that they can lose to anyone at any time, especially on the road. Home dogs are also 13-6 ATS this year and 12-7 SU, though that might have had something to do with the replacement refs. If we had replacement refs in this one, it would be a significant bet, but instead, it’s a smaller bet just to fade the public on a heavy lean. It’s also worth noting the Bengals are just 5-13 ATS as favorites since 2007.

Public lean: Cincinnati (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): CIN 8 JAC 11

Update: Nate Clements is also expected out for the Bengals leaving them with Terence Newman, Adam Jones, and recently called up from the practice squad Chris Lewis-Harris. Also, I’m glad to see the sharps like Jacksonville as well. I’m not adding any more units because Jacksonville sucks, but I’m feeling more confident now.

Jacksonville Jaguars 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +2.5 (-110) 2 units

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Cincinnati Bengals: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals

Last week: 29 (+8)

Record: 2-1

The Bengals, my original pick to go from out of the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer, are still in the running. I had them doing do because I thought they were the worst of the 12 playoff teams last season (other than Denver, who added Peyton Manning). Andy Dalton can move the ball well against crappy defenses like Cleveland and Washington, but he’s still never beaten a playoff team, going 0-9 in those games (assuming Baltimore makes the playoffs and Cleveland and Washington don’t). They also have a negative yards per play differential and rank 20th in that regard. However, I think they’ve looked better than both Detroit and New Orleans this year, so those 2 teams have moved down past them on these Power Rankings.

Studs

QB Andy Dalton: 19 of 27 for 328 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, 1 batted pass, 2 drops, 108.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 30 drop backs (2 sacks, 1 scramble 3 of 4, 1 touchdown, 1 interception)

LG Clint Boling: Did not allow a pressure on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 2 attempts

RG Kevin Zeitler: Did not allow a pressure on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempts

RT Andre Smith: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 3 attempts

WR AJ Green: Caught 9 passes for 183 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets on 34 pass snaps, 6.8 YAC per catch

RE Michael Johnson: 4 sacks and 4 quarterback hits on 39 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 7 stops

LE Carlos Dunlap: 2 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback pressures on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle, 2 stops

Duds

TE Jermaine Gresham: Allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 10 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, caught 5 passes for 64 yards and a touchdown on 7 targets on 23 pass snaps, 4.8 YAC per catch, 1 drop

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis: Rushed for 38 yards (22 after contact) and a touchdown on 17 carries, 2 broken tackles, 1 fumble, did not catch a pass on 1 targets, 1 interception when thrown to

MLB Rey Maualuga: Allowed 7 catches for 89 yards on 7 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1 stop, 3 missed tackles

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Bengals expect to have Carlos Dunlap and Jason Allen back this week, not Dre Kirkpatrick

stevenlourie Bengals, News

The Bengals have been one of the worst teams in the NFL through two games, getting blown out in Baltimore against an overrated Ravens team that has uncharacteristically surrendered 808 yards in 2 games and then barely beating the terrible Browns in Cincinnati. They rank 31st in the NFL in yards per play differential.

A lot of their issues have been on the defensive side of the ball. They rank dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed, 31st in yards per carry allowed, and 29th in yards per attempt allowed despite not battling the toughest group of quarterbacks. Those two are a combined 34 of 77 for 325 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in their other games. Part of that has to do with their competition’s competition. Both Weeden and Flacco have also faced Philadelphia, one of the league best defenses, but Cincinnati has really done a poor job in pass coverage this year.

The biggest issue defensively for the Bengals has been injuries. They are without two key cornerbacks, free agent acquisition Jason Allen and rookie Dre Kirkpatrick. This has forced washed up veterans like Nate Clements and Terence Newman to see a ton of action in the secondary, next to a still not 100% Leon Hall. Hall is just 10 months removed from an Achilles tear and has been uncharacteristically torched in 2 games thus far, surrendering 10 completions for 143 yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts. They’ve also been without top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap.

The good news for the Bengals is that Dunlap and Allen will be back this week. The bad news is that Kirkpatrick is expected to be out until late October. They also lost every down linebacker Thomas Howard for a season with a torn ACL and could struggle to fill that hole. This week, they face a very tough Washington offense that even a solid St. Louis defense couldn’t do much to slow. This is their toughest test so far so even though they’re healthier than they’ve been, they could still get torched. It’ll be up to Andy Dalton and the offense to keep pace against a banged up Washington defense.

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Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bengals, Commanders

Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) at Washington Redskins (1-1)

Before the season, I identified 5 overrated and 5 underrated teams, with the idea of betting on them (or against them) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. This served me well as I’m 10-4 this year on games involving those 10 teams  (and one of those losses is because I abandoned shipped on the Bills after week 1 and picked the Chiefs last week). However, two weeks into the season, I’ve had to adapt that a little. However, one thing remains the same. I still feel the Bengals are overrated.

In the opener, they got destroyed by a Baltimore team that I also saw as overrated because their injuries and other losses defensively. That assessment of the Ravens has proven to be true as they’ve allowed 808 yards in 2 games, 27th in the NFL. The Bengals, however, managed just 323 of those yards. Andy Dalton, especially, struggled. He completed 22 of 37 for 221 yards and a pick. Those numbers don’t even tell the whole story. Only 80 of those 221 yards were in the air; the rest were after the catch. He settled for short stuff all night, completing just 4 passes that went more than 10 yards through the air (4 of 11) and his adjusted QB rating of 66.2 was 26th out of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL week 1.

Last week, Dalton played better against the lowly Browns’ defense, completing 24 of 31 for 318 yards, 3 touchdowns, and an interception, but he was still just 5 of 10 on throws longer than 10 yards through the air (as a rookie, he was 83 of 173). Even last week, only 165 of his 318 yards were through the air. The more troubling thing from that game is that their defense, which was torched by Joe Flacco in the opener, was once again torched by Brandon Weeden.

Through 2 games, the Bengals have allowed 49 of 69 for 710 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions to two quarterbacks who are a combined 34 of 77 for 325 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in their other games. Part of that has to do with their competition’s competition (both Weeden and Flacco have also faced Philadelphia, but Cincinnati has really done a poor job in pass coverage this year). Despite an average schedule at best, the Bengals rank 31st in the league in yards per play differential, which is my favorite stat and one I feel does the best job of summing up how a team has played and of projecting how they will play in the future.

Last year, the Bengals were 0-8 against playoff teams. A big part of the reason was that Andy Dalton really struggled in those 8 games, completing 55.6% of his passes for an average of 6.5 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He’s a physically limited quarterback, but offensive coordinator Jay Gruden does a great job of masking his weaknesses and highlighting his strengths. However, that doesn’t really fly against good defense.

The good news for Dalton and the Bengals is that the Redskins don’t really have a good defense. They have a great offense, which is why their yards per play differential is positive, but they have one of the worst opponent yards per play averages in the league. In the opener, they played the Saints, which is excusable, but last week and gave up 452 yards to the Rams. That’s not excusable. They’re also banged up right now as Adam Carriker and Brian Orakpo are done for the season and Josh Wilson is expected to be out at least this game. Their absences were part of the reason why they were so bad last week defensively.

Carriker’s absence isn’t huge because he’s just a marginal starter and they have a 2011 2nd round pick in Jarvis Jenkins waiting in the wings. The other two hurt much more. Josh Wilson was a solid starting cornerback in an overall weak secondary. He’ll be replaced in the starting lineup by Cedric Griffin, who is a fine nickel cornerback, but he’s struggled whenever he’s been counted on to start in the past. Orakpo’s injury is the killer. Not only is it season ending, but he’s their best pass rusher, but they have no depth behind him. Rob Jackson will get the start this week. The Redskins still have Ryan Kerrigan to pressure the quarterback, but this defense is really lacking in talent right now and the Bengals will be able to move the ball on them.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, is heading in the opposite direction injury wise, at least defensively, as they’re getting healthier. This is a welcome sight for a defense that has been torched in the first 2 games. Because of injuries, they’ve had to feature washed up guys like Nate Clements and Terence Newman in the secondary, next to Leon Hall, who is still not 100% just 10 months removed from an Achilles tear, and they’ve also been without top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap. Rookie cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick will not return this week, but cornerback Jason Allen and Dunlap are expected to.

Allen will help in the secondary and Dunlap will help a pass rush that has ranked 23rd in pass rush efficiency without him. Leon Hall, who has been uncharacteristically torched in the first 2 games, surrendering 10 completions for 143 yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts, is another week healthier closer to 100% this week. However, Robert Griffin and this offense has been unstoppable in the first 2 games, even by a solid Rams defense, so they should have no problem moving the ball on the Bengals defense that is average at best.

Still, I think the Bengals are overrated. Even with those two teams trending in opposite directions injury wise, there’s no way these two teams are even like this line suggests (3 points for home field advantage). Cincinnati got blown out by an overrated Baltimore team that doesn’t have the defense they normally do and then only beat a crappy Browns team without their top defensive player by 7. Washington, meanwhile, went into to New Orleans and beat a Saints team that hadn’t lost their in 9 games last season, and then hung close with an underrated Rams team in St. Louis. Now they head home and they should be able to win pretty easily here. Injuries are the only reason this isn’t a bigger bet.

Update: Josh Wilson is expected to play, which is a boost to an ailing Redskins defense. Also, I forgot to mention, week 1 rookie starting quarterbacks are 8-1 SU and ATS since 2008. I’m adding an extra unit to Washington.

Public lean: Washington (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cincinnati covers)

Washington Redskins 31 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against spread: Washington -3 (-115) 4 units

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Cincinnati Bengals: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals

Last week: 29 (+0)

Record: 1-1

I’m still sticking with the whole, the Bengals are overrated thing. A 7 point win over the Browns doesn’t change that. If anything, it enforces it. The Bengals also rank 31st in the league in yards per play differential, allowing 1.9 yards per play more defensively than they gain offensively. The good news, some reinforcements are on the way as they could get top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap and two cornerbacks, Jason Allen and Dre Kirkpatrick, back from injury this week. A secondary featuring a still not 100% Leon Hall and the washed up Nate Clements and Terence Newman with no pass rush to support it has been predictably torched for 617 yards (9.4 YPA) in 2 games, which ranks 29th in the league, despite facing Joe Flacco and Brandon Weeden. The bad news is the Bengals just put two more players on IR, every down linebacker Thomas Howard and rotational defensive end Jamaal Anderson, and they have a tough test in Washington this week against the upstart Redskins.

Studs

CB Leon Hall: Allowed 5 catches for 40 yards on 7 attempts, 3 pass deflections, 1 quarterback hurry on 1 blitz, 6 solo tackles, 2 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

DT Geno Atkins: 5 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

CB Adam Jones: Did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 3 punt returns for 90 yards and a touchdown

Duds

C Jeff Faine: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 38 yards on 9 attempts

TE Jermaine Gresham: Caught 4 passes for 37 yards on 5 targets, 2.0 YAC per catch, run blocked for 0 yards on 2 attempts, 2 penalties

MLB Rey Maualuga: Allowed 4 completions for 68 yards on 5 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 3 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 1 blitz

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Bengals suffer another injury, lose Thomas Howard for season

stevenlourie Bengals, News

Every team has injuries, but the Bengals are one of those teams that may have more than anyone. After putting two starters on the offensive line on IR before the season, Travelle Wharton and Kyle Cook (though the latter can be reactivated later this season), the Bengals were without 4 key contributors with injury last week as Carlos Dunlap, Jason Allen, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Bernard Scott all missed.

Scott is expected to return this week, to serve as a compliment to BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but Dre Kirkpatrick will not play and Jason Allen and Carlos Dunlap are unlikely to play. Kirkpatrick’s and Allen’s absence will force Nate Clements to start at cornerback next to Leon Hall again, who is still only 10 months removed from a torn Achilles and was uncharacteristically torched because of it in the opener. Dunlap, meanwhile, is their top pass rusher.  Last year, Dunlap managed 5 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures, on 302 pass rush snaps, a pass rush rate of 15.6%.

You can add one more name to that list as every down linebacker Thomas Howard has torn his ACL and will miss the rest of the season. In his absence, a trio of Dan Skuta, Vontaze Burfict, and Vincent Rey will split snaps. Without those Allen, Kirkpatrick, and Dunlap, the Bengals had a ton of troubling stopping the Ravens last week and, now without Howard, they aren’t safe bets as touchdown favorites this week, even against the lowly Browns.

Also, Andy Dalton is continuing his struggles from the 2nd half of last season (54.8% completion, 6.6 YPA, 8 touchdowns, 6 interception) and the preseason. In the opener against Baltimore, he completed 22 of 37 for 221 yards and a pick. Those numbers don’t even tell the whole story. Only 80 of those 221 yards were in the air; the rest were after the catch. He settled for short stuff all night, completing just 4 passes that went more than 10 yards through the air (4 of 11) and his adjusted QB rating of 66.2 was 26th out of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL week 1. These two teams aren’t as unevenly matched as people commonly think.

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