Bengals

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns

Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)

Before the season started, I identified 5 teams I thought were overrated and 5 I thought were underrated. The idea was to bet these teams (or against these teams) until I was proven wrong or until the odds makers caught up. It served me well last week. Of the 7 games involving these 10 teams, I nailed 5, including my pick of the week. I unfortunately went 3-6 on my other 9 to finish at .500 for the week ATS, but it’s good to see that my overrated/underrated choices seem to have been pretty accurate. I’ll try to use those this week, unless I feel the odds makers caught up, with two exceptions (San Francisco and Buffalo, two I got wrong last week).

Here, I don’t really feel the odds makers caught up and there’s a good reason for that. Cincinnati got blown out last week, as I predicted they would, but they did it against Baltimore, so everyone seems to be giving them a bit of a pass. However, I have Baltimore as one of my overrated teams, so we have an overrated team in Cincinnati remaining overrated because people are overrating their week 1 strength of opponent. Baltimore seems to have an improved offense, but they lost several key contributors defensively and have several others aging and they have yet to prove to me that their struggles on the road and overall inconsistencies are gone.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, failed to beat a single playoff team last year, going 0-8 in such games and if Baltimore makes the playoffs this year, his record would be 0-9 through his first season and a game against playoff teams. Fortunately, Cleveland is almost definitely not a playoff team. The Bengals also have suffered several major injuries. Leon Hall, predictably, is not 100% back from a torn Achilles suffered about 10 months ago and was uncharacteristically torched in the Baltimore game. They also put two starters on the offensive line, Kyle Cook and Travelle Wharton, on IR. On top of that, top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap and two of their cornerbacks, Jason Allen and Dre Kirkpatrick, missed last week and could miss again this week.

Then there’s the issue of Andy Dalton’s arm strength. Jay Gruden did a great job of scheming around his physical limitations last year, but you can only do that for so long. He struggled down the stretch last season, particularly against tougher opponents, and continued that in the preseason and in the opener against Baltimore, where he completed 22 of 37 for 221 yards and a pick. Those numbers don’t even tell the whole story. Only 80 of those 221 yards were in the air; the rest were after the catch. He settled for short stuff all night, completing just 4 passes that went more than 10 yards through the air (4 of 11) and his adjusted QB rating of 66.2 was 26th out of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL week 1.

This team could easily lose 10 or more games this season. This isn’t some new prediction. I made it before the season and I’m sticking with it. Given that, they don’t deserve to be favorites of more than 6 against any one, not even the Browns, who I think are the league’s worst team, especially now without Joe Haden, their top defensive players. Teams that finish with 6 wins or fewer cover at roughly a 30% rate as favorites of 6 or more. This is a very powerful trend if you can accurately predict how teams will finish.

On top of that, there are other situational trends in play, ones that don’t take any forecasting. The Bengals are coming off a huge loss on MNF, losing by 31 on MNF. Teams that do this are typically flat the following week. It makes sense. Not only are you on a short week, but you are coming off a deflating loss. Since 2002, teams are 14-23 ATS coming off losses of 21+ on MNF, 3-12 ATS if they are favored the next week, as Cincinnati is.

On top of that, this is what’s known as a sandwich game. After this, the Bengals travel to Washington, where they will almost certainly be underdogs. Teams that are favorites before and after being underdogs are 37-54 ATS since 2010. This makes sense. Teams can’t bring the same level of intensity every week in the NFL. It just doesn’t happen; that’s why upsets happen. Teams typically are flatter than normal coming off a tough game and going into a tough game. The Bengals may see this is an easy breather and a chance to get their confidence back, which is not the right way to approach any game in the NFL. Anyone can lose at any time.

Meanwhile, the Bengals tend to fall flat as favorites anyway, going 5-13 ATS in this situation since 2007. One trend that works in the Browns’ favor, teams are 48-30 ATS after a loss of 3 or fewer at home as underdogs since 2002. This makes some sense. It seems to give confidence to teams if they are able to hang close in a game where they were expected to get blown out at home, but it doesn’t have the same adjusting affect on the spread that an actual win would produce.

I also believe this is what’s called a trap line. Trap lines are when odds makers want the public to bet one way or another so they make a “too good to be true” line. Typically when odds makers want you to do something, it’s a good idea not to do it. The two signs of a trap line are a suspiciously low line and a line that drops even though the majority of the public is betting it. Right now, about 75% of the money is on Cincinnati, yet the line has dropped from -7.5 when it opened (already suspiciously low) to -7 with juice. They really want us to bet Cincinnati. The odds makers seem to agree that Cincinnati is overrated and they know no one is going to want to bet the Browns as mere touchdown underdogs. They’re not a bad group of guys to have agree with you. They’re not stupid. That’s why they make money every single year.

Even still, there is line value here. Cincinnati is still being overrated by the odds makers even with the “too good to be true line.” Cincinnati is not the type of team that deserves to be favored by more than a touchdown over anyone. I think at the end of the year, we’ll wonder why this wasn’t something like Cincinnati -4 (3 points for home field advantage). Besides, all the trends are in Cleveland’s favor. I would make this my pick of the week, but Cleveland is really terrible, so instead, this will just be a significant bet. Brandon Weeden probably won’t be quite as bad as he was last week now that he has one start under his belt. I’m also picking Cincinnati to win outright here at home, but this is going to be a close, ugly, and unwatchable game, unless you have money on it, which I recommend you do.

Public lean: Cincinnati (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Cincinnati Bengals 16 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7 (-115) 4 units

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Cincinnati Bengals: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals

Last week: 28 (-1)

Record: 0-1

I picked the Bengals as one of my overrated teams coming into the season and they certainly looked the part against the Ravens. Andy Dalton struggled mightily to complete anything longer than 10 yards downfield and had the week’s 7th worst adjusted QB rating despite a very clean pocket (9 pressured snaps) against a Baltimore defense missing several key players from last season and their defense struggled to contain a suddenly upstart Ravens offense. A lot of people are taking away from that game that the Ravens are better than last season. I’m taking away the opposite. That the Bengals are worse than last season, significantly, and if the Ravens end up making the playoffs, this will push Andy Dalton’s record to 0-9 against playoff teams in his career.

Studs

LG Clint Boling: Allowed 0 sacks, quarterback hits or quarterback pressures on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 39 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts

LT Andrew Whitworth: Allowed 0 sacks, quarterback hits or quarterback pressures on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts

WR Andrew Hawkins: Caught 8 passes for 86 yards on 9 targets on 26 pass plays, averaged 11.3 YAC per catch

FS Reggie Nelson: 7 solo tackles and 2 stops on 22 run snaps, allowed 2 completions for 8 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection

LOLB Thomas Howard: 2 solo tackles and 2 stops on 23 run snaps, 1 sack on 4 blitzes, allowed 1 completion for 3 yards on 2 attempts

Duds

QB Andy Dalton: 22 of 37 for 221 yards, 1 interception, 1 throw away, 2 batted passes, 1 drop, adjusted QB rating of 66.2, pressured 9 times

CB Leon Hall: Allowed 5 catches for 103 yards and 1 touchdown on 7 attempts, 3 solo tackles and 1 stop on 22 run snaps

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Bengals expect to be without Carlos Dunlap, Jason Allen, Dre Kirkpatrick and Bernard Scott

stevenlourie Bengals, News

The regular season has not yet begun, but the injuries have started piling up for the Bengals. After putting two starters on the offensive line on IR before the season, Travelle Wharton and Kyle Cook (though the latter can be reactivated later this season), the Bengals are expected to be without 4 key contributors with injury for their week 1 battle with the Baltimore Ravens as Carlos Dunlap, Jason Allen, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Bernard Scott are all expected to miss.

Kirkpatrick’s and Allen’s absence will force Nate Clements, in his age 33 season, to start opposite Leon Hall. Hall, meanwhile, probably won’t be 100% just 10 months after tearing his Achilles. Including playoffs, they allowed 23.8 points per game in their final 9 games without Hall, as opposed to 17.5 points per game in their first 8 games with Hall last season. Obviously having him 100% would be a huge boost for them, but I can’t see him being 100%, at least not this week.

Dunlap’s absence hurts because the Bengals already lost Frostee Rucker and Jonathan Fanene as free agents this offseason. They love rotation on the defensive line and those two were key parts of that rotation. They’ll be replaced by the mediocre Jamaal Anderson and Devon Still, a 2nd round rookie playing out of position. With Dunlap miss this game, that means that Anderson will have to will the top reserve behind Michael Johnson and Robert Geathers, two decent, but unspectacular players.

Dunlap was spectacular last year. In fact, was one of the best pass rushers in the league last year. Dunlap managed 5 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures, on 302 pass rush snaps, a pass rush rate of 15.6%.  Given their troubles in the secondary, the Bengals have to get pass rush to have any chance of stopping the Ravens’ passing attack, but I don’t think that will happen.

Meanwhile, Bernard Scott’s absence means that BenJarvus Green-Ellis will have the carry the load against Baltimore’s stout run defense. BJGE is good at running through holes and not fumbling, but he averaged just 3.7 YPC last year and ranked just 61st out of 67 eligible backs in yards after contact per carry with 2.0. That was in New England, with Tom Brady making life easy for the running backs. Andy Dalton is not Tom Brady, so BJGE will find very little running room, especially with the Bengals missing two starting interior offensive lineman against a great run defense like the Bengals’. The Bengals will have a lot of trouble running the ball this week.

All of these injuries definitely hurt for a Bengals team that didn’t beat a single playoff team last year (0-8, including playoffs). Andy Dalton regressed as last season went on and especially struggled against playoff teams and that regression appeared to continue during the preseason. Against a Baltimore team that beat them twice last year, en route to 12 victories, they’re going to have a tough time. The Ravens also were 9-0 last year at home in Baltimore, where this game is played, including playoffs.

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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bengals, Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

Anyone who followed me during the offseason knows I picked 5 underrated and overrated teams with the intention of trying to get ahead of the odds makers. I will and have been basically just been betting on the underrated teams and against the overrated teams blindly until I’m proven wrong or the odds makers catch up. Unfortunately, I kind of got screwed over this week because two of my underrated teams and two of my overrated teams are playing each other. This game is the latter.

The Bengals made a 5 game improvement last season to go from 4 wins to 9 wins. If history holds, they’ll regress this year as teams that make that kind of improvement regress an average of 2.4 wins per season since the beginning of the 16 game NFL season. Andy Dalton had a rough preseason and really struggled in games against playoff teams last season, during which he went 0-8. He should regress this season now that teams know how to scheme against the Bengals’ system. Andy Dalton had a decent rookie year because of the great job Jay Gruden did as offensive coordinator, but there’s only so long a system can keep a player looking better than he is because you can figure out how to scheme against systems. There’s a reason he struggled so much down the stretch and against better teams. I compare it to Colt McCoy, who looked alright as a rookie, but not only didn’t take that next step in his 2nd year, but also regressed noticeably. Dalton, like McCoy, definitely does not have history on his side as he tries to make the leap to “franchise quarterback.” Only 9 of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL today weren’t 1st round picks. In each of the last 2 years, only 4 of 12 starting quarterbacks in the playoffs weren’t 1st round picks.

The Bengals were also hit hard by injuries this preseason as offensive lineman Kyle Cook and Travelle Wharton are both expected to miss the season, with Wharton already on IR. The Bengals injury list is even longer this week as Dre Kirkpatrick and Jason Allen won’t play, Bernard Scott won’t play and Carlos Dunlap and Robert Geathers might not play. Kirkpatrick’s and Allen’s absence will force Nate Clements, in his age 33 season, to start opposite Leon Hall. Hall, meanwhile, probably won’t be 100% just 10 months after tearing his Achilles. Including playoffs, they allowed 23.8 points per game in their final 9 games without Hall, as opposed to 17.5 points per game in their first 8 games with Hall last season. Obviously having him 100% would be a huge boost for them, but I can’t see him being 100%, at least not this week.

Meanwhile, Bernard Scott’s absence means that BenJarvus Green-Ellis will have the carry the load against Baltimore’s stout run defense. BJGE is good at running through holes and not fumbling, but he averaged just 3.7 YPC last year and ranked just 61st out of 67 eligible backs in yards after contact per carry with 2.0. That was in New England, with Tom Brady making life easy for the running backs. Andy Dalton is not Tom Brady, so BJGE will find very little running room, especially with the Bengals missing two starting interior offensive lineman against a great run defense like the Bengals’. The Bengals won’t be able to run the ball this week.

Geathers’ and Dunlap’s potential absences hurt because the Bengals already lost Frostee Rucker and Jonathan Fanene as free agents this offseason. They love rotation on the defensive line and those two were key parts of that rotation. They’ll be replaced by the mediocre Jamaal Anderson and Devon Still, a 2nd round rookie playing out of position. If Geathers and Dunlap miss this game, that means that Anderson will have to start next to Michael Johnson, the least effective member of their pass rush rotation last year with 7 sacks, but just 6 quarterback hits and 15 quarterback pressures, good for a 6.5% rate on 433 pass rush snaps. Those two would probably also have to play most of the game, something they’re just not used to.

Dunlap, the more likely of the two to miss, was one of the best pass rushers in the league last year. Dunlap managed 5 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures, on 302 pass rush snaps, a pass rush rate of 15.6%. He’d obviously be a huge loss and right not it sounds like he’ll be out. Given their troubles in the secondary, the Bengals have to get pass rush to have any chance of stopping the Ravens’ passing attack, but I don’t think that will happen.

The Ravens are banged up too as they’re missing Terrell Suggs likely for the season on defense. They also lost two other defensive starters, Cory Redding and Jarrett Johnson, key members of their run defense. The Ravens have depth in the front 7, but guys like Paul Kruger, Pernell McPhee, Arthur Jones, and Albert McClellan will have to play more than they did last year and it’s always a projection to expect them to keep up their levels of play as they get more playing time. Meanwhile, Courtney Upshaw, their 2nd round rookie, will have to play more than they would have liked. On top of all that, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are aging.

Inferior defensive play will put more pressure on the Ravens’ offense, especially Joe Flacco and company. Joe Flacco looked great in the preseason, with Torrey Smith appearing to be the #1 receiver that Flacco has really lacked his whole career. I almost changed the Ravens’ projection after seeing them in the preseason, but I didn’t because I didn’t want to put too much stock in the preseason. They are, however, really one of those teams that fell out of the playoffs in my preseason predictions out of circumstance. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they played well and made the playoffs, despite their losses on defense, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if they missed the playoffs.

Because they fell out of circumstance, I feel more comfortable going with the Ravens than the Bengals in this one. I don’t trust the overrated Andy Dalton to beat the Ravens, considering he’s never beaten a playoff team and the Ravens were undefeated at home last year (9-0), as inconsistent as they were on the road. It’s not a very big bet though.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against spread: Baltimore -6 (-110) 2 units

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Bengals sign Jeff Faine as insurance for Kyle Cook

stevenlourie Bengals, News

After center Kyle Cook saw a foot specialist early in the week, the Bengals brought in Jeff Faine for a visit as insurance for Cook, whose initial prognosis did not look good. After the Bengals signed Faine, Cook’s prognosis isn’t looking any better. According to the Cincinnati Enquirer, “indications are” he’ll miss a “large amount of time,” possibly even the whole season.

Cook had a down year last season after signing a 4 year, 14 million dollar extension last offseason, but he was ProFootballFocus’ 10th rated center in 2011 and he’s overall had a solid career. He’ll definitely be missed, especially if the replacement is Jeff Faine. Faine was released by the Buccaneers in March and tellingly hadn’t made a single other visit this offseason. Though I suppose the move was necessary because their other option was 2010 7th round pick Reggie Stephens, who had yet to play an NFL snap. The Bengals don’t really seem to believe in him.

Faine is heading into his age 31 season and was ProFootballFocus’ 31st ranked center out of 35 last season, especially struggling as a run blocker. The Bengals have also lost left guard Travelle Wharton for the season and 2011 4th round rookie Clint Boling will start in his absence. He played just 172 snaps last season and really struggled. Injuries on the interior offensive line are yet another reason why the Bengals will regress off their 9-win season this year.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (standard league, draft day Sunday at 3 PM ET, 2 spots left). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Bengals could lose Kyle Cook for season, bring in Jeff Faine for visit

stevenlourie Bengals, News

Bengals’ center Kyle Cook left last week’s preseason game with a foot injury and, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer, he saw a foot specialist on Monday “indications are” he’ll miss a “large amount of time.” In response to this, the Bengals brought in Jeff Faine, formerly of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, in for a visit this week as their 2nd string center is Reggie Stephens, a 2010 7th round pick who has never played a snap in the NFL.

Cook had a down year last season after signing a 4 year, 14 million dollar extension last offseason, but he was ProFootballFocus’ 10th rated center in 2011 and he’s overall had a solid career. He’ll definitely be missed, especially if the replacement is Jeff Faine. Faine was released by the Buccaneers in March and tellingly hasn’t made a single other visit this offseason.

Faine is heading into his age 31 season and was ProFootballFocus’ 31st ranked center out of 35 last season, especially struggling as a run blocker. The Bengals have also lost left guard Travelle Wharton for the season and 2011 4th round rookie Clint Boling will start in his absence. He played just 172 snaps last season and really struggled. Injuries on the interior offensive line are yet another reason why the Bengals will regress this season.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Cincinnati Bengals Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Carlos Dunlap

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Bengals

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Cincinnati Bengals, that player is defensive end Carlos Dunlap.

Carlos Dunlap had a very good rookie year with 10 sacks as a rotational player and when he had just 5 sacks in 2011 in a larger role, it was seen by some as a disappointment. This made sense. After all, Dunlap made noise as a sophomore at the University of Florida with 13.5 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks as a situational player in 2008, leading to everyone calling him a potential top-10 pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. When he didn’t take that next step as a player when he became an every down player in 2009, managing just 11 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks with more snaps, his stock fell and he ended up going in the 2nd round.

However, upon closer examination, that’s not what happened with Dunlap in Cincinnati from 2010 to 2011. In 2010, he did have 10 sacks on just 216 pass rush snaps, but only 3 quarterback hits and 11 quarterback pressures, good for a rate of 11.1%. In 2011, he had have just 5 sacks on 291 pass rush snaps, but he also had 13 quarterback hits and 29 quarterback pressures, good for a rate of 16.2%. Playing the run well as well, something he improved on from his rookie year, Dunlap actually graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end in the regular season, despite his still limited role.

Whereas in 2010 he was lucky to get 10 sacks, in 2011, he was unlucky to get just 5. If you combine what he did in his first 2 years in the league, he had 15 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, and 40 quarterback pressures on 507 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 14.0%. That just gives you an idea of the kind of production he could if given every down snaps, provided he can maintain the same rates.

Headed into his 3rd year in the league, Dunlap is expected to get yet another increase in playing time as the Bengals lost Jonathan Fanene and Frostee Rucker, who combined for a total of 907 total snaps in the regular season last year, in free agency. They didn’t really do anything to replace them, aside from signing the disappointing Jamaal Anderson and possibly moving 2nd round pick rookie Devon Still to end.

For that reason, Dunlap should get more playing time, possibly a lot more. He probably won’t be quite an every down end. The Bengals love rotation on the defensive line and haven’t had anyone be an every down end in a while. However, he should get enough snaps to prove himself as one of the best pass rushers in the league, which he has been so far in his career in a limited role. The one concern is that he disappoints like he did in 2009 at Florida, but he’s got way too much talent not to be considered a breakout candidate.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Bengals’ Carlos Dunlap sidelined a month with a knee injury

stevenlourie Bengals, News

According to the Bengals’ official website, Carlos Dunlap is expected to miss about a month with a knee injury, which puts his availability for week 1 in serious doubt. Dunlap is one of the league’s most underrated players as the 2010 2nd round pick graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 7th rated defensive end last season, with 5 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures on 302 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 15.6%, as a situational player.

Heading into his 3rd year in the league, he was expected to have a larger role, after the losses of defensive ends Frostee Rucker and Jonathan Fanene this offseason, and with Robert Geathers also expected to miss about a month with a knee injury. However, it appears the Bengals will be without his services for a couple of games, bad news for a team thin at defensive end.

With Rucker and Fanene gone and Geathers and Dunlap hurt, Michael Johnson is the only member of their 2011 defensive end rotation still likely to play week 1 and he graded out as the 2nd worst pass rusher of the bunch, with 7 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 15 quarterback pressures on 433 pass rush snaps (6.5%). He could have to start next to Jamaal Anderson, a bust and career journeyman who has never had much success anywhere.

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Cincinnati Bengals 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Bengals, News

MLB Rey Maualuga

Maualuga is a good linebacker, but the linebacker franchise tag value (8.8 million in 2012) is inflated by the salaries of rush linebackers and thus non-rush linebackers rarely get tagged. After an offseason in which Curtis Lofton, Stephen Tulloch, and David Hawthorne got 27.5 million, 25.5 million, and 19 million respectively over 5 years, the Bengals are unlikely to commit 8.8 million to Maualuga over just one season.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

P Kevin Huber

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. Huber has just a 43.3 yards per punt average in his career though, so he’ll need a career best year to prove he’s worth being franchised.

Likelihood: Unlikely

K Mike Nugent

Nugent is a good kicker and received the franchise tag this offseason, meaning he’d be owed at least 3.1848 million if he were to be franchised again. There is some precedent for this type of thing though, especially with kickers and punters, and if Nugent, a career 80.9% kicker, nails 86.8% again, the Bengals might slap him with the tag for the 2nd straight season, especially since they don’t really have anyone better to tag.

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

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Bengals’ Jay Gruden expects Brandon Tate and Armon Binns to split #2 receiver reps

stevenlourie Bengals, News

Bengals’ Offensive Coordinator Jay Gruden says he expects Brandon Tate and Armon Binns to share the majority of the 1st team receiver snaps in Training Camp opposite AJ Green. It’s possible that he is just letting the veterans get the first crack, before their two rookies, Mohamed Sanu (3rd round) and Marvin Jones (5th round). However, it’s also a sign that Sanu might not be nearly the favorite some thought he was.

None of these receivers are draftable in fantasy. There’s no clear favorite and Cincinnati’s passing offense is really only good enough to have one fantasy relevant wide receiver this year (AJ Green). Besides, none of these guys are that talented. Sanu and Jones are mere rookies and rookies normally take at least a year to adjust to the speed of the NFL and learn a much more complex playbook.

Tate, meanwhile, has struggled whenever he was counted on in New England and things won’t get any better now that he has a worse quarterback. Binns is an inexperienced 2011 undrafted free agent who has never caught a pass in the NFL. There doesn’t appear to be a clear favorite right now, but whoever wins the job, the #2 receiver position should be a weakness on the Bengals’ offense at least for this season.

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