Quarterback

The Bills went 13-3 in meaningful regular season games last year, locking up the #2 seed before week 18 and resting starters in the final week of the season as a result. However, there are some reasons to expect them to regress in terms of win total in 2025. In terms of first down rate differential and yards per play differential, which are much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record, the Bills were only slightly above average at +1.55% and +0.50 respectively, even if we exclude their meaningless week 18 game. The reason the Bills were able to win significantly more games than those numbers would suggest is their turnover margin, which led the league at +24, but turnover margin has very little year-to-year correlation. 

The Bills especially excelled in fumble margin at +14, which has no year-to-year correlation, nor does their league leading fumble recovery percentage. In fact, just one year prior in 2023, the Bills were just +2 in turnover margin and +2 in fumble margin. For the Bills to continue winning at the same rate they won at last season, they will have to elevate their overall level of play, rather than just relying on turnovers, and I don’t think they improved enough this off-season for that to happen. This isn’t to say they will become a bad team or even miss the playoffs, but I would expect their win total to come down, perhaps significantly.

The Bills’ offense was by far their better side of the ball last season, ranking 4th in first down rate and 6th in yards per play, and I expect that to continue in 2025. At quarterback, the Bills have the reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league for several years. Since 2020, he has completed 65.2% of his passes for an average of 7.47 YPA, 165 touchdowns, and 63 interceptions through the air, with 3,001 yards and 48 touchdowns on 561 carries (5.35 YPC) on the ground, while making every start. 

However, last season was the best season of Allen’s career and he might not be able to be quite as good this season, particularly in terms of interception rate, as Allen threw an interception on just 1.2% of his passes last season, as opposed to 2.4% over the previous four seasons. If that interception rate creeps back up and the Bills’ fumble margin normalizes next season, they will have a significant drop off in turnover margin, which seems likely, given how turnover margins typically vary year-to-year.

Allen almost never misses time with injury, with his last game missed coming back in his rookie season in 2018, but he does take more hits than the average quarterback because of how much he takes off and runs with the ball, which could eventually catch up with him. If he happens to miss time this season, Allen would be replaced by backup Mitch Trubisky, who is a decent, but underwhelming backup. Trubisky was once the 2nd overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, but he only has a career 86.0 QB rating in 57 starts, which is why he has settled into a backup role, making just seven starts over the past four seasons. He would obviously be a huge downgrade from Allen if he had to step in and play, but the same can be said of any quarterback backing up an elite quarterback like Allen, so that isn’t necessarily a knock on Trubisky as a backup.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The Bills largely bring back the same supporting cast as last season on offense, with the only significant change being that they didn’t bring back veteran wide receiver Mack Hollins and instead signed Joshua Palmer, but that figures to be an upgrade. Hollins actually led this receiving corps in routes run, but was very inefficient, turning 50 targets into just a 31/378/5 slash line and averaging just 0.92 yards per route run. Palmer has largely been underwhelming in his career, since being selected in the 3rd round in 2021, averaging just 1.39 yards per route run, but that average has increased to 1.59 over the past two seasons, he gets an upgrade in quarterback by joining the Bills, he is still only in his age 26 season, and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Hollins.

Palmer might not necessarily step right into Hollins’ old role, as some of Hollins’ vacated snaps could go to Khalil Shakir, who was their most effective receiver last season, and Keon Coleman, a 2024 2nd round pick who might have the highest upside of this group. Both Shakir and Coleman were significantly more efficient than Hollins last season and both will probably be more efficient than Palmer this season. Shakir is the Bills’ de facto #1 wide receiver, leading the team in targets (100), catches (76), and receiving yards (821), while averaging 2.15 yards per route run, good for 21st in the NFL among wide receivers. 

Shakir’s performance didn’t come out of nowhere either, as the 2022 5th round had averaged 1.84 yards per route run in 2023. Still only in his age 25 season, Shakir should continue playing at a similar level and, if he sees an uptick in playing time, he could easily exceed last year’s total receiving numbers. Coleman, meanwhile, averaged 1.71 yards per route run last season, turning only 57 targets into a 29/556/4 slash line, despite being considered raw as a draft prospect. He could easily take a step forward in his second season in the league, still only his age 22 season. 

With Shakir, Coleman, and Palmer likely locked in as the Bills’ top-3 receivers, that leaves Curtis Samuel as the #4 receiver at best. Samuel was signed to a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal last off-season to potentially play a significant role in this offense, but he only ended up playing 378 snaps and struggled with a 1.11 yards per route run average, down from his career average of 1.35. Only in his age 29 season, Samuel should have some bounce back potential in 2025, but he would need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart in order to play a significant role. He’s only still on the team because most of his salary is guaranteed.

Samuel could also face competition for the top reserve role from free agent addition Elijah Moore. Moore only signed for 1-year, 2.5 million and has only averaged 1.10 yards per route run in four seasons in the league, but he has never had a good quarterback and is still only in his age 25 season, so he comes with some upside. However, like Samuel, he will need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart in order to play a significant role.

Tight end Dalton Kincaid also had a solid 1.62 yards per route run last season, though he missed four games due to injury and split snaps with Dawson Knox, who played 616 snaps in 16 games, as compared to 469 snaps in 13 games for Kincaid. That limited Kincaid to just a 44/448/2 slash line overall. A first round pick in 2023, Kincaid had a lower yards per route run average as a rookie at 1.46, but he finished with a 73/673/2 slash line because he was healthier, while Knox missed four games due to injury. 

Knox only averaged 1.04 yards per route run last season and has only averaged 1.08 yards per route run in his career, so the Bills may opt to start giving Kincaid a bigger role at Knox’s expense in 2025, giving Kincaid significant production upside going into his third season in the league, but it’s also possible Knox continues cutting into his playing time. This is overall a deep receiving corps, even if they don’t have a true #1 receiver.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

One potential concern for this offense in 2025 is that they are unlikely to stay as healthy as they did last season, when they had the third fewest adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league. Their offensive line was their healthiest unit, as their starting five offensive linemen missed just one game between them, which is highly unlikely to continue into 2025. Another potential concern for this offensive line is the age of left tackle Dion Dawkins, who has been a consistently above average player since his rookie season in 2017, never receiving a PFF grade lower than 69.9, with a 72.9 PFF grade in 2024, but who is now going into his age 31 season and could start to decline this season as a result. 

Right tackle Spencer Brown was their highest graded offensive lineman last season, slightly ahead of Dawkins, finishing with a 73.6 PFF grade. That was a career best grade for him, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2021 3rd round pick had a 68.1 PFF grade in 2023. Brown could regress somewhat from his career best 2024 season, but he should still remain an above average starter, very much in his prime in his age 27 season. 

The Bills’ worst offensive lineman last season was right guard O’Cyrus Torrence, who had a 54.9 PFF grade. Torrence, a 2023 2nd round pick, also struggled as a rookie with a 56.0 PFF grade. He came into the league with a high upside and it’s possible he takes a step forward in his third season in the league, but that’s not a guarantee and, even if he doesn’t, he figures to remain in his starting role because the Bills don’t have a better option, with their best alternative being free agent addition Kendrick Green, a 2021 3rd round pick who has made 19 starts in four seasons in the league and has never finished above 60 on PFF over the course of a full season.

Opposite Torrence at left guard, the Bills will once again have David Edwards, who has finished above 60 on PFF in all four seasons in his career in which he has been the primary starter, including a 63.8 PFF grade in 2024. He figures to have a similar season again in 2025. Rounding out the offensive line at center is Connor McGovern, who had a 69.6 PFF grade last season, but that was a career best in six seasons in the league for the 2019 3rd round pick, who has only finished above 60 on PFF in three of those seasons. He could remain a capable starter, but I wouldn’t expect him to repeat last season’s career best year.

The Bills also frequently used six offensive linemen together last season, move than any other team in the league, as their 6th offensive lineman Alec Anderson played 223 snaps in 16 meaningful games. Anderson is a 2022 undrafted free agent who had never played a snap in his career prior to last season, but he excelled as an extra offensive lineman, with a 72.8 PFF grade. He didn’t play more than 32 snaps in any meaningful game last season, but he does have the versatility to play anywhere on the offensive line and could easily find himself in a starting role at some point this season if and when injuries strike. That would be a concern though, as not only could Anderson struggle as a regular starting offensive lineman, but they would also have to find a replacement for Anderson as the 6th offensive lineman in that scenario This is a solid offensive line, but they are highly unlikely to be as healthy as they were a year ago.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Bills also got a productive year out of lead back James Cook, who took 207 carries for 1,009 yards and 16 touchdowns (4.87 YPC), while ranking 10th in the NFL among running backs in carry success rate at 53.1%. Cook benefited significantly from Josh Allen being lined up in the backfield with him though, as defenses had to worry about Allen taking off and running with the ball himself. In terms of elusive rating, which takes into account how often a running back breaks tackles and how many yards he gets after contact, Cook was at just 54.5, 33rd among 57 eligible running backs. This has been a trend for Cook, who has averaged 4.95 yards per carry on 533 carries in three seasons in the league, but has just a career 53.2 elusive rating, with 2.99 yards per carry after contact and a 17.4% missed tackle rate.

Cook now is heading into the final year of his rookie deal and wants a top of the market contract, which the Bills seem hesitant to give him, likely realizing how much of his success is due to the talent around him. Cook could potentially hold out for an extended period of time in search of this new deal and there is a history of running backs underperforming after extended holdouts, but there is very little incentive for Cook to actually miss games due to his holdout. One way or another, he figures to return as the Bills’ feature back for at least one more season, in a similar role to last season. 

Cook also contributes in the passing game, with a 1.15 yards per route run average in 2024 and a career 1.34 yards per route run average. When he needs a break on passing downs, the Bills typically bring in Ty Johnson, who only played 315 snaps last season, but 237 of them came on passing downs, almost the same amount as Cook, who played 248 passing down snaps. In his career, Johnson has averaged 1.17 yards per route run, including 1.54 over the past two seasons since joining the Bills. He’s only had 279 carries in six seasons in the league, including just 41 last season, and his career 4.55 YPC average is largely the result of only getting carries in long yardage situations when the defense is expecting the pass, but he is valuable in the specific role he plays.

The Bills also have Ray Davis, a 2024 4th round pick, as their primary backup on early downs, ranking second on the team with 113 carries last season. He only averaged 3.91 yards per carry on those carries, with a 45.1% carry success rate, but he did exceed Cook in elusive rating (70.9) and he has the upside to take a step forward in his second season in the league. He didn’t play much in passing situations last season, ranking third on the team among running backs in passing down snaps, but he did show a lot of potential, with 1.87 yards per route run. If Cook isn’t kept beyond this season, it’s possible Davis gets the opportunity to be the starter in 2026 and beyond. This is a deep backfield that fits well together, though a potential holdout by Cook is a concern.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

With the Bills’ offense played at a high level last season and will likely continue doing so in 2025, the Bills’ defense struggled, ranking 25th in yards per play allowed and 31st in first down rate allowed, and, with their turnover margin likely to regress significantly this season, the Bills’ defense could easily get exposed and cost them more games than it did last season if they don’t significantly improve their level of play. Defensive performance tends to be much less consistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance, which is a good thing for this defense as they could easily be better on defense this season by default, but the Bills really didn’t do much from a personnel standpoint to improve on defense this off-season.

At the edge defender position, the Bills let go of their top-3 reserves, Dawuane Smoot (322 snaps), Von Miller (279 snaps), and Casey Toohill (249 snaps) and replaced them with veterans Joey Bosa and Michael Hoecht and third round pick Landon Jackson, which isn’t necessarily an upgrade. Smoot and Toohill struggled last season, with PFF grades of 57.7 and 51.1, but Von Miller excelled as a situational pass rusher, with a 15.3% pressure rate and a 82.4 PFF grade. 

Miller will mostly directly be replaced by Joey Bosa, another accomplished, but aging pass rusher. Throughout the first eight seasons of Bosa’s career from 2016-2023, the former 3rd overall pick finished above 75 on PFF in every season, with six seasons above 80, while totaling 67 sacks, 83 hits, and a 14.9% pressure rate in 93 games, but durability increasingly became an issue for him, as he missed 38 total games in those eight seasons, including 20 games missed in 2022 and 2023 combined. 

In 2024, Bosa’s injuries seemed to catch up with him. He only missed three games, but he was limited to 32.6 snaps per game and had just a 63.9 PFF grade with just a 10.8% pressure rate, all three of which were the lowest of his career. Bosa is now going into his age 30 season and, while he isn’t totally over the hill and could have some bounce back potential if he stays healthy, his best days are likely to be gone at this point. Even in a limited situational role, he’s unlikely to be as efficient rushing the passer as Miller was last season.

Bosa has the most upside of the reserve options. Hoecht has played 2,008 snaps over the past three seasons, but has been middling at best, with PFF grades of 65.4, 61.7, and 61.3 respectively and a pressure rate of just 10.7% across the three seasons. He could benefit from playing a smaller role in Buffalo, but that’s not a guarantee and he’s also facing a 6-game PED suspension to start the season. In his absence, the Bills may have to rely more on Bosa or on the rookie Jackson, who could be a starter long-term, but who also could be raw as a rookie. The Bills also have 2024 5th round pick Javon Solomon, who flashed potential as a rookie with a 73.1 PFF grade and a 15.7% pressure rate, albeit across just 135 total snaps, and he could be in line for a bigger role in year two.

Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa remain as the starters. Rousseau is by far their best player at the position and arguably is the best player on this entire defense, posting a 83.1 PFF grade last season, his third straight season above 80. In 2022 and 2023, Rousseau’s snap count was limited to 463 and 585 respectively, but that jumped up to 736 in 2024 and he maintained the same level of efficiency. In total, he has 21 sacks, 38 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 45 games over the past three seasons and, still only in his age 25 season, the former first round pick might still have further untapped upside. He should at least repeat his 2024 performance in 2025 and could be even better.

Epenesa, on the other hand, struggled last season, with a 54.6 PFF grade across 613 snaps and just a 5.9% pressure rate. The 2020 2nd round pick has had some better seasons in the past, but he never exceeded 388 snaps played in a season prior to last season and likely needs a reduced role if he wants to have a chance of bouncing back in 2025. That would require one or multiple of their reserves to play more than any of their reserves did last season. 

Bosa has the potential to do so, or even to take over the starting role from Epenesa, while Hoecht could be a slight upgrade by default over Epenesa when he is done with his suspension, and the youngsters Jackson and Solomon have upside as well, but chances are Epenesa will again have to play more than the Bills would like, even if his role is less than it was last season. Greg Rousseau elevates this position group significantly by himself and the rest of the bunch have upside if they can find the right rotation, but there is still some concern with this position group.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, Ed Oliver (603 snaps) and DaQuan Jones (547 snaps) were a solid starting duo last season, with PFF grades of 71.0 and 64.6 respectively. Oliver struggled against the run, but excelled as a pass rusher, with 3 sacks, 10 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate, which is largely in line with how he’s played throughout his six seasons in the league, as he’s finished above 60 on PFF as a run defender just once, but has finished above 60 as a pass rusher in all six seasons, with four seasons above 70. In total, he has 27 sacks, 52 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate in 92 career games. Still in his age 28 season, Oliver should continue playing at a similar level in 2025.

Jones, on the other hand, has been a consistently well-rounded player in his career, only totaling 16 sacks, 45 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate in 148 games over the past ten seasons, but finishing above 60 in run defense in all but two of those seasons and finishing above 60 overall in all of those seasons, with six seasons above 70. The problem is he’s now going into his age 34 season and, coming off the 2nd lowest PFF grade of those ten seasons, he could have already started a decline that will further continue into 2025. To prepare for Jones’ getting up there in age, the Bills used 2nd and 4th round picks in this year’s draft on TJ Sanders and Deone Walker and they used a 3rd round pick in last year’s draft on DeWayne Carter, but Carter had a 41.4 PFF grade across 315 snaps as a rookie and it’s far from a guarantee that any of those three will ever develop into as good of a player as Jones was in his prime.

The Bills also added veteran Larry Ogunjobi as a free agent to give them additional depth, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in five of the past six seasons, including a 49.4 PFF grade across 495 snaps last season, and now he is going into his age 31 season and also facing a 6-game PED suspension. Most likely, the higher drafted Sanders and the veteran Ogunjobi will be the primary reserves, with the lower drafted Walker and Carter, who struggled as a rookie, as deeper reserves, but Ogunjobi’s suspension will force Walker and/or Carter into bigger roles to start the season. If the aging DaQuan Jones declines significantly, this position group could have a big problem.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

At linebacker, the Bills have an unsettled group. Matt Milano was once a consistently above average every down linebacker, receiving PFF grades of 70.1 and 73.7 on snap counts of 915 and 946 as recently as 2021 and 2022, but injuries have limited him to 394 snaps in nine games over the past two seasons and he’s now missed significant time with injury in three of the past five seasons. His injuries seemed to take a toll on him upon his return last season, as he struggled mightily with a 48.0 PFF grade across 183 snaps in four games.

Milano could have some bounce back potential in 2025 if he’s healthy, but he’s now in his age 30 season, so it seems likely that his best days are behind him at this point. Because of that, the Bills made him take a pay cut from the 20 million he was owed over the next two seasons to a 1-year, 6.3 million dollar deal. His salary still suggests the Bills view him as a starter, but how much he’ll be able to play and how effective he will be remain up in the air.

In Milano’s absence last season, Terrel Bernard (750 snaps) and Dorian Williams (651 snaps) were their top-2 linebackers. Bernard struggled with a 47.6 PFF grade, but he was better in 2023 when he had a 64.0 PFF grade across 999 snaps, so the 2022 3rd round pick could have some bounce back potential in 2025. Williams, on the other hand, was the opposite, as the 2023 3rd round pick had a 55.2 PFF grade across 211 snaps as a rookie, but improved to a 61.6 PFF grade in a bigger role in his second season in the league in 2024. Both players have decent upsides, but both are underwhelming starting options. They will likely compete for one starting role opposite Milano, with the other being the top reserve and a situational option. This group has upside overall, but also significant downside in a worst case scenario.

Grade: B-

Secondary

Other than maybe Greg Rousseau, the Bills’ best defensive player last season was cornerback Christian Benford, who ranked 4th among cornerbacks with an 82.6 PFF grade. That wasn’t out of character for Benford either, as he had an 82.2 PFF grade in 2023 as well. Benford was only a 6th round pick in 2022, but he has developed into one of the best cornerbacks in the league and he is only going into his age 25 season, so he should remain one of the best cornerbacks in the league for the foreseeable future.

The Bills did not get as good of play from their other outside cornerback last season though, as Rasul Douglas finished with a 59.2 PFF grade and was subsequently let go this off-season. To replace him, the Bills used their first round pick on Nate Hairston, who is raw, but has a high upside and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Douglas. He could face competition for his starting job from Tre’Davious White, a former first round pick of the Bills, who used to be one of the best cornerbacks in the league, finishing above 70 on PFF in three of his first four seasons in the league from 2017-2020

That was before he suffered a torn ACL and a torn achilles in a two-year span from 2021-2023 though, which led to him playing just 892 snaps over the past three seasons combined. White was released by the Bills last off-season and spent 2024 with the Rams and Ravens, with whom he combined for a 52.9 PFF grade across 403 snaps. That was only the first season of his career below 60 on PFF, but he’s now going into his age 30 season and it’s highly unlikely he will ever come close to regaining his pre-injury form. He’s not a bad insurance option to have, but the Bills are definitely hoping Hairston can win the job and keep White as a reserve.

Taron Johnson remains as the slot cornerback. He finished last season with a 65.0 PFF grade across 646 snaps in 12 games, with five games missed due to injury. That’s largely in line with how he’s played throughout his 7-year career, as he’s finished in the 60s in six of those seven seasons. The one exception was a 80.2 PFF grade in 2023, but it’s likely that will prove to be a fluke when all is said and done. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, I would expect Johnson to remain a solid, but unspectacular solid cornerback in 2025.

At safety, the Bills bring back their top-4 safeties from a year ago in terms of snaps played, but none of them were better than a replacement level player, so this position group looks unsettled going into 2025. Damar Hamlin led the group with 875 snaps played, but had just a 60.2 PFF grade, which is in line with how he played in the only other season in his career in which he saw significant action, as he had a 61.4 PFF grade across 845 snaps in 2022. If he remains a starter in 2025, he will likely remain a replacement level player.

Taylor Rapp was the other starter last season, but he was even worse, with a 59.0 PFF grade across 779 snaps. He’s had better years in the past, as the 2019 2nd round pick finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league, including a career best 76.2 PFF grade across 976 snaps in 2022, but he’s now finished below 60 in two straight seasons, so the odds are decreasing that he ever returns to his old form. He’s still only in his age 28 season, so he has some bounce back potential, but he could continue struggling.

Cam Lewis was the highest graded of the bunch last season, but even he only had a 61.4 PFF grade and that came across just 597 snaps. The 2019 undrafted free agent has shown some potential in his career, but he only played 380 snaps in five seasons in the league prior to last season and is a projection to an every down role, so he’s best as a situational reserve. Cole Bishop, meanwhile, might have the highest upside of the bunch, but the 2024 2nd round pick struggled mightily with a 49.6 PFF grade across 358 snaps last season and, while he could be better in his second season in the league, he has a long way to go to even be a replacement level starting caliber player. He too will likely remain a reserve in 2025, even in an overall underwhelming safety group. Top cornerback Christian Benford elevates this group significantly by himself and Taron Johnson is entrenched on the slot, but the rest of this position group has a lot of concerns.

Grade: B

Kicker

Kicker Tyler Bass has been a weak point of the Bills’ roster for a few years, finishing below average in four of five seasons in the league, costing the Bills 11.49 points compared to league average over that time, including 1.64 in 2024. He’s made 84.5% of his field goals in his career, but has overall had a relatively low difficulty level, attempting just 23 kicks of 50+ yards in his career. The Bills didn’t bring in any competition for him this off-season and seem content to give him another shot in 2025, but he figures to be at least somewhat below average again.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Bills won 13 games last season, but their first down rate differential and yards per play differential were more in line with a 10-win team. Their offense played at a high level and will likely continue doing so in 2025, but their defense struggled and will also likely continue doing so in 2024. Meanwhile, their +24 turnover margin is highly unlikely to come close to repeating, given the volatility of turnover margins on a year-to-year basis. Assuming that happens, that will expose the Bills’ defense more than it was exposed last season. Fortunately, they still look like clearly the best team in their division and they overall have one of the easiest schedules in the league.

Prediction: 15-2, 1st in AFC East

Quarterback

A common team building strategy is to draft a young, cheap quarterback, surround him with talent while he’s young and cheap, even at the expense of future cap space, and then by the team the team needs to cut salary around the quarterback, hopefully the quarterback is good enough to succeed even with less help around him. It’s arguably the only way to build a consistent contending team, as the only quarterbacks who have won the Super Bowl in the salary cap era (since 1994) with a cap hit that was more than 11% of the salary cap are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers.

The Bills have followed this blueprint since using the 7th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft on Josh Allen. It took a couple years for the Bills to load up on talent around Allen and for Allen to develop into a top level quarterback, but in his third season in the league in 2020, Allen and the Bills broke out and since then the Bills have gone 48-18 with five playoff victories, with Allen completing 65.5% of his passes for an average of 7.42 YPA, 137 touchdowns, and 57 interceptions, while adding 2,470 yards and 36 touchdowns on 459 carries (5.38 YPC). Overall, he has ranked 5th, 6th, 1st and 1st among quarterbacks on PFF with grades of 90.9, 86.6, 91.6, and 91.2 respectively. 

Unfortunately, despite all their success, Allen and the Bills haven’t reached the ultimate goal of winning a Super Bowl. Now with Allen going into his 7th season in the league and the 2nd season of his massive 6-year, 258 million dollar extension (10th highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual salary), Allen’s cap hit will go over 11% of the cap for the first time and it will only go up from there, so the Bills had to move on from several players this off-season to improve their long-term cap situation. Allen is the kind of quarterback capable of at least keeping this team in contention even with a diminished roster around him, but things will only get harder from here for him.

Allen hasn’t missed any time with injury since his rookie season, despite a playing style that makes him more susceptible to injury. If Allen does happen to miss time this season, the Bills brought back veteran Mitch Trubisky, who backed Allen up in 2021, in between stints as a starter with the Bears from 2017-2020 and as a spot starter with the Steelers from 2022-2023. Trubisky has never lived up to his billing as the 2nd overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, but he’s pretty good as far as backups go, completing 64.1% of his passes for an average of 6.70 YPA, 72 touchdowns, and 48 interceptions in 57 career starts. The Bills would obviously be in a lot of trouble if they lost Allen for an extended period of time, as Allen is a top-5 quarterback, but you could do a lot worse than turning to Trubisky in a worst case scenario.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

In 2023, the Bills finished 11-6, but were better than their record suggested, as they finished the season ranked 3rd in DVOA. After a 5-5 start, the Bills went 6-1 in their final 7 regular season games and came within a couple plays of beating the eventual Super Bowl Champion Chiefs in the second round of the playoffs. That turnaround coincided with the Bills firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replacing him with former quarterbacks coach Joe Brady, but their improved success had more to do with the team doing better in close games than it did with the team actually playing better. In fact, the Bills offense actually got slightly worse as the season went on, after the coordinator switch. Overall on the season, the Bills averaged 5.71 yards per play and had a 33.45% first down rate, but if you more heavily weight their games later in the season, the Bills averages drop to 5.60 yards per play and a 32.97% first down rate. 

The biggest change when Brady took over was this offense became much more run heavy, going from averaging 38.9 pass attempts and 28.2 carries per game with Dorsey calling plays to 33.1 pass attempts and 36.8 carries per game with Brady. Part of that was giving more carries to their running backs, but Josh Allen’s carries also increased from 4.8 per game to 9.0 per game, as Dorsey preferred to keep Allen in the pocket more to help him avoid injury, while Brady used Allen more as a dual threat. 

Utilizing Allen as a runner is not a bad idea in of itself, but Allen’s passing effectiveness decreased down the stretch as well, going from a 70.3% completion percentage, 7.43 YPA average, and 19 touchdowns to 11 interceptions with Dorsey to a 60.7% completion percentage, 7.45 YPA average, and 10 touchdowns to 7 interceptions with Brady and Brady’s scheme probably deserves some of the blame for that. Allen was also a less efficient runner down the stretch than he was early in the season, averaging 4.41 YPC, as opposed to 5.13 YPC with Dorsey as the offensive coordinator. Brady remains as the Bills’ offensive coordinator for the 2024 season, but that might not necessarily be a good thing, even if the team’s record misleadingly shows they were better with Brady calling plays in 2023.

That being said, a more run-heavy game plan might be for the best in 2024, given the personnel changes they made this off-season, as they traded away top wide receiver Stefon Diggs for a 2025 2nd round pick and let #2 wide receiver Gabe Davis leave on a 3-year, 39 million dollar deal in free agency. The Diggs trade didn’t free up any immediate cap space for the Bills in 2024, but they were going to have to take a big dead cap hit whenever they moved on from him and, if Diggs continued on his current trajectory, this might have been the last off-season the Bills could have gotten anything significant for him via trade. 

Diggs still had a 107/1183/8 slash line with 1.99 yards per route run in 2023, but his production significantly decreased down the stretch, as he managed just a 47/422/1 slash line on 80 targets in his final 10 games including playoffs with a 1.30 yards per route run average. That largely coincides with the Bills’ offensive coordinator change and Joe Brady is probably partially to blame for that, but Diggs was also on the wrong side of 30, heading into his age 31 season in 2024, and it’s very possible he’s on the decline in a significant way. 

Davis, meanwhile, was decent with a 45/746/7 slash line and a 1.34 yards per route run average in 2023, but he’s not irreplaceable. To replace Diggs and Davis, the Bills signed veteran Curtis Samuel to a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal, used a second round pick on Keon Coleman, and took fliers on additional veterans in Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Chase Claypool. The Bills will also probably give a bigger role to 2022 5th round pick Khalil Shakir, who took on a bigger role down the stretch last season, at the expense of Stefon Diggs. 

In fact, Shakir had basically the same level of production down the stretch last season as Diggs did, despite a smaller role. In the final 12 games of the season, including playoffs, Shakir had a 41/611/3 slash line on 48 targets with a 1.79 yards per route run average. It’s a small sample size for a player who was not highly drafted and who had previously averaged just 1.23 yards per route run in the first year and a half of his career, but Shakir comes into his third season in the league in 2024 with a lot of upside and could see a big target share. 

Coleman and Samuel are probably locked into big roles by virtue of the significant investments the Bills made in them this off-season, but Shakir figures to at least be a top-3 receiver on this team and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him lead this team in targets, given the Bills’ other options. Coleman has a lot of potential, but enters the league pretty raw and could see a lot of growing pains as a rookie, while Samuel is a decent receiver, but an unspectacular one and one without much upside, going into his age 28 season, having averaged 1.37 yards per route run and 483 yards per season in seven seasons in the league.

As for the veteran fliers the Bills added as depth options, none are likely to have a big impact. Mack Hollins has only exceeded 300 receiving yardage once in seven seasons in the league, has a career 1.12 yards per route run average, and is going into his age 31 season. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is going into his age 30 season with a career average of 1.23 yards per route run and 526 yards per season in six seasons in the league. 

Chase Claypool was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and showed potential early in his career, with slash lines of 62/873/9 and 59/860/2 on an average of 1.84 yards per route run in his first two seasons in the league, but he has averaged only 0.99 yards per route run over the past two seasons, with just 54 catches, only 8 of which came in 2023. He’s still only going into his age 26 season and is the only one of the trio of reserve options with any upside, but he’s still nothing more than a flier.

With concerns at the wide receiver position, the Bills figure to heavily use their two tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Knox was a 3rd round pick in 2019 and spent most of his first four seasons in the league as a starter, averaging 718 snaps per season, but he was underwhelming, averaging 1.13 yards per route run and 445 yards per season, which led to the Bills selecting Kincaid in the first round in the 2023 NFL Draft. 

Kincaid immediately was better than Knox had ever been, with a 73/673/2 slash line and a 1.46 yards per route run average as a rookie, and he out-snapped Knox 699-486. Now going into his second season in the league, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Kincaid take another step forward, but Knox is not a bad #2 tight end and, given the Bills’ wide receiver situation, the Bills figure to use both on the field at the same time frequently. The Bills’ lack a true #1 option, but there are at least some good options, as the Bills try to replace Stefon Diggs’ targets by committee.

Grade: B

Running Backs

In addition to Josh Allen running with the ball more often after Joe Brady took over, lead running back James Cook also saw an uptick in carries, averaging 17.0 carries per game in the final seven games of the regular season and their two playoff games, as opposed to 12.0 carries per game in the first 10 games of the season. It is worth noting that his efficiency dropped off though, like the rest of this offense, as he went from averaging 5.13 yards per carry to 4.33 yards per carry. A 2nd round pick in 2022, Cook flashed a lot of potential with a 5.70 YPC average on 89 rookie year carries, but it’s possible the 5-11 190 back wears down as he sees largely carry totals and would be best off as part of a tandem with a bigger power back. 

Unfortunately, the Bills don’t really have a good option for that role unless they get a surprising rookie season out of 4th round pick Ray Davis, who at least has the size to complement Cook at 5-8 220. Cook is also a good pass catcher, with a yards per route run average of 1.44 in his two seasons in the league. Even when this offense became more run heavy down the stretch last season, Cook saw his pass production increase, with a 28/249/3 slash line in 9 games with Joe Brady, as opposed to 24/222/1 in 10 games with Ken Dorsey. 

Cook figures to continue having a big passing game role, though it’s worth noting that the rookie Davis also has good receiving upside, with 62 catches in his final two collegiate seasons, and the Bills also have veteran Ty Johnson, who has played sparingly in his career, but has seen 74.4% of his career 1,158 snaps come on passing plays, with an average of 1.08 yards per route run (4.44 YPC on 238 career carries, against defenses that were mostly expecting the pass). All three backs could see action in passing situations this season, but Cook figures to remain the feature back, both as a runner and a pass catcher. He has a high upside, but might not be big enough to be a true feature back and their depth behind him is pretty suspect.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Bills also parted ways with long-time center Mitch Morse this off-season, making him a cap casualty ahead of a 8.5 million dollar non-guaranteed salary in 2024, but he won’t be too hard to replace, after he posted a decent, but unspectacular 64.5 PFF grade in 17 starts last season. To replace him, expect the Bills to move left guard Connor McGovern inside. McGovern has only made one start at center in the NFL, but he played there extensively in college and should be able to make the position switch relatively easily. 

McGovern has been underwhelming in 46 career starts in five seasons in the league since going in the third round in 2019 and received a 58.5 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023, but his likely replacement at left guard, David Edwards, could be an upgrade on what Morse was at center so, in the aggregate, the Bills probably won’t miss Morse. Edwards hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2021, but he had PFF grades of 70.3 and 66.9 respectively in 2020 and 2021 with the Rams, while making 31 starts in those two seasons combined. 

Edwards was limited to 230 snaps with the Rams in 2022 by injuries and only played 148 snaps as a reserve with the Bills in 2023, but he’s still only in his age 27 season and should be able to bounce back to being at least a decent starter in 2024. The rest of this offensive line will remain the same in 2024. At the other guard spot opposite Edwards, 2023 2nd round pick O’Cyrus Torrence will be the starter for the second straight season. He was underwhelming with a 56.0 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie in 2023, but he has a good chance to be better in year two, possibly a lot better. 

At tackle, Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown remain, on the left and right side respectively. Dawkins has been their best offensive lineman for years and that should remain the case in 2024. A 2nd round pick in 2017, Dawkins has been a starter since his rookie season, making 106 starts in seven seasons, while never finishing worse than 69.9 on PFF, which came back in his second season in the league in 2018. In 2023, he finished with a 73.7 PFF grade in 17 starts. He’s going into his age 30 season in 2024 and could start to decline soon, but even if he does, he’s likely to remain an above average starter for at least another season.

Brown, on the other hand, is not as good. He did have a career best 68.1 PFF grade in a career high 17 starts in 2023, after the 2021 1st round pick had PFF grades of 62.6 and 51.4 in a combined 24 starts in his first two seasons in the league. Brown is only going into his age 26 season and it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will continue being a solid starter like he was last season, or possibly even better than last season, but he could also regress, given his inconsistent history.

The Bills also signed veteran right tackle La’El Collins in free agency this off-season, but he figures to be a reserve, despite his extensive history as a starter. Collins has made 86 starts in nine seasons in the league and has mostly been an above average starter, including PFF grades of 72.5, 86.4, and 82.0 in 2018, 2019, and 2021 (41 combined starts), but he missed all of 2020 with injury, fell to a 57.9 PFF grade in 2022 (15 starts), then again missed all of the 2023 season with injury, and now heads into his age 31 season with an extensive recent injury history and his last above average season coming three years ago. He’s an above average insurance policy to have and could be a solid starter if forced into action, but I wouldn’t consider him a legitimate threat to Spencer Brown’s starting job at right tackle.

On the interior, the Bills’ depth isn’t as good. They used a 5th round pick on Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, a collegiate center who could also play guard if needed, but he probably would struggle if forced into significant action as a rookie. Will Clapp is their most experienced veteran option and he has the versatility to play both guard and center, but the 2018 7th round pick has finished below 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league (21 starts), including a 56.7 PF grade in a career high 11 starts for the Chargers in 2023. Either way, the Bills would likely be in trouble if one of their interior offensive line starters got hurt this season. This isn’t a bad offensive line overall though, with David Edwards essentially replacing veteran Mitch Morse, which should be at worst a lateral move, and they at least have a good swing tackle option in La’El Collins, even if their interior depth is a concern.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Bills lost more on defense this off-season than they did on offense, with four of their top-9 in terms of snaps played last season now gone, among other more minor players. At the edge defender spot, the Bills lost Leonard Floyd, who had a 56.3 PFF grade on 576 snaps, as well as Shaq Lawson, who played a smaller role, with a 48.1 PFF grade on 322 snaps. In their absence, the Bills will probably give bigger roles to Greg Rousseau (585 snaps) and AJ Epenesa (388 snaps), who excelled in their limited roles last season with PFF grades of 85.6 and 80.3 respectively and pressure rates of 14.9% and 13.1% respectively.

Rousseau was a first round pick in 2021 and has shown a lot of promise in part-time roles through three seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 70.2 and 83.6 on snap counts of 531 and 463 prior to last season and a combined 17 sacks, 26 hits, and 13.6% pressure rate in 46 career games. Still only in his age 24 season, Rousseau could be in for a huge 2024 season if he sees a significantly bigger snap count and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain highly effective in a part-time role.

Epenesa, on the other hand, was a second round pick in 2020 and had posted mostly mediocre grades on PFF prior to last season, finishing in the 50s and 60s with a combined 9.7% pressure rate, and he’s never played more than 388 snaps in a season in four seasons in the league, even including last year. He’s still relatively young in his age 26 season, but doesn’t have the same upside as Rousseau and could easily regress in 2024, especially if he has to play a bigger role and proves unable to hold up on a higher snap count.

The Bills will also be hoping for more out of Von Miller, who was limited to a 45.4 PFF grade and a 7.3% pressure rate in 2023 on a snap count of 257 in 12 games in an injury plagued season. Miller is one of the most accomplished edge defenders in the league over the past decade plus, exceeding 80 on PFF in 11 of 13 seasons in the league, including most recently a 85.8 PFF grade in 2022, albeit in an injury shortened season in which he played just 450 snaps, but he’s now going into his age 35 season with a significant recent injury history and, even if he stays healthy and bounces back in 2024, his best days are almost definitely behind him at this point. Still, if he could even be a talented rotational player for the Bills this season, that would be a big boost over what he gave them a year ago.

The Bills did add some depth to this group this off-season, using a 5th round pick on Javon Solomon and signing veterans Dawuane Smoot and Casey Toohill. Solomon would probably struggle even in a rotational role as a rookie, while Toohill is an underwhelming 2020 7th round pick who has a career 7.4% pressure rate and who received a 52.1 PFF grade on 494 snaps in 2023, but Smoot at least has some potential. 

Smoot struggled mightily with a 42.4 PFF grade on 340 snaps in 2023, while managing just a 6.1% pressure rate, but he was coming off of a major injury and was a lot better in 2021 and 2022, with PFF grades of 68.1 and 70.3 respectively on snap counts of 675 and 445 respectively, while totaling 11 sacks, 18 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate in 31 games. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, Smoot has some bounce back potential as a rotational player if he’s healthy again. The Bills lost a couple rotational players in this group this off-season, but they both struggled, so they won’t be missed and, overall, this is still a talented group.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Bills also lost a couple rotational players at the interior defender spot from a year ago, with Jordan Phillips (391 snaps) and Tim Settle (380 snaps) no longer with the team, but they struggled with PFF grades of 35.8 and 58.2 respectively, so they probably won’t be missed. The replacements the Bills added, veteran journeymen Austin Johnson and DeShawn Williams and third round rookie DeWayne Carter are underwhelming options, but the Bills should at least get more out of DaQuan Jones, who was limited to 174 snaps in 86.0 games by injuries last season.

Jones excelled in his limited action, with a 86.0 PFF grade, playing the run well but also adding a 14.9% pressure rate. That was a little out of character for Jones, who has been a solid, but unspectacular player for most of his career, receiving grades in the 60s and 70s in eight straight seasons prior to last season, and Jones now heads into his age 33 season, so he’s highly unlikely to be as good over a full season this year as he was in limited action last year, but unless he drops off a cliff significantly, a possibility given his age, he should still be a welcome re-addition to this team. His run defense is probably his best attribute, but he also has decent pass rush numbers in his career, with 14.5 sacks, 42 hits, and a 6.5% pressure rate in 139 career games. 

Jones will continue to start next to Ed Oliver, also a solid player, but kind of the opposite of Jones, with mediocre play against the run for most of his career, but also great pass rush production, with 24 sacks, 42 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate in 78 games since going in the first round in 2019. His mediocre run defense has prevented him from exceeding a 71.5 PFF grade in five seasons in the league, but he’s still a useful starter for the Bills and, still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024.

Newcomers Johnson and Carter will compete to be the top reserve interior defender and both figure to have roles. Johnson is an 8-year veteran, but his career high PFF grade for a season is 66.9, which came on just 231 snaps in 2020. He’s finished below 60 on PFF in five of eight seasons in the league, including three straight seasons and the only two seasons in which he exceeded 400 snaps on the season. Last season, he had the worst season of his career with a 45.7 PFF grade on 641 snaps and now he heads into his age 30 season. He figures to continue struggling in 2024, even in a reserve role. 

Williams is also an aging veteran who has struggled for most of his career, going into his age 32 season and coming off of three straight seasons in which he has finished below 60 on PFF, with grades of 56.2, 55.4, and 50.0 on snap counts of 386, 598, and 443 respectively. Carter, meanwhile, profiles as a potential long-term starter, but could have growing pains as a rookie. Oliver and Jones are a solid starting duo, but the Bills’ depth is a concern at this position.

Grade: B

Linebackers

At the linebacker position, the Bills lost Tyrel Dodson, who played at a very high level last season, with a 89.5 PFF grade, albeit on just 550 snaps as an injury replacement for Matt Milano, a regular starter who played just 211 snaps in 5 games in 2023 before suffering a season ending injury. Milano returns healthy for the 2024 season and is an above average every down player when on the field, surpassing 70 on PFF in three straight seasons, but durability has been an issue for him throughout his career, costing him 25 games in 7 seasons in the league, missing time in every season except his rookie season. Milano is still relatively young in his age 29 season, so he should continue playing at a similar level in 2024, but it’s also possible he misses more time with injury and the Bills don’t have a backup plan that is anywhere near as good as Dodson, with 2023 3rd round pick Dorian Williams, who was mediocre on 211 snaps as a rookie last season, as their top reserve.

Terrel Bernard returns as the other every down linebacker opposite Milano. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Bernard showed some promise while playing sparingly as a rookie (111 snaps), before having a solid season as a starter in 2023, with a 64.0 PFF grade on 999 snaps. Still only in his age 25 season, he should continue being at least a solid starter in 2024 and he has the upside to take a step forward and be even better in his third season in the league. Milano and Bernard are a solid linebacking duo, but the Bills’ depth could be a question mark if Dorian Williams doesn’t take a step forward in year two and, even if he does, the Bills will still likely miss Tyrel Dodson, who left as a free agent this off-season.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The position group with the biggest changes on the Bills’ defense this off-season is safety, where the starting duo of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer was let go this off-season, after seven seasons together. Both still played pretty well last season, with PFF grades of 64.4 and 73.0 on snap counts of 796 and 987 respectively, but they were going into their age 34 and age 33 seasons respectively in 2024 and Poyer was owed 5.75 million, so the Bills made him a cap casualty and didn’t re-sign Hyde as a free agent.

The Bills have options to replace them, but they all figure to be downgrades. They used a second round pick on Cole Bishop and added veterans Dee Delaney and Mike Edwards to a group that also has Taylor Rapp, another veteran who played 422 snaps as a reserve last season, but who previously was a starter with the Rams and who has 52 starts in five seasons in the league. Rapp struggled with a 56.4 PFF grade last season, but the 2019 2nd round pick previously had PFF grades over 60 in each of his first four seasons in the league, maxing out at 76.2 on 976 snaps as recently as 2022. Only in his age 27 season, he has some bounce back potential and has a good chance to at least be an average starter.

I would expect Rapp to start alongside the rookie Bishop, but both Delaney and Edwards will be in the mix as well and could win the starting job if Bishop disappoints. Neither have ever been season long starters though, maxing out at 449 snaps and 814 snaps in a season in 6 seasons and 5 seasons in the league respectively. Delaney at least had a 63.4 PFF grade last season on his career high 449 snaps, but Edwards has finished below 60 on PFF in back-to-back seasons. Both would almost definitely be underwhelming starting options if forced into action, so the Bills will be hoping Bishop wins the job, but he could have growing pains as a rookie.

The Bills also moved on from veteran cornerback Tre’Davious White this off-season, rather than paying him 12.5 million in 2024, but he had been very injury prone in recent years and had just a 68.0 PFF grade in just 182 snaps in 4 games last season, so he won’t be missed that much. To replace him, the Bills traded for Rasul Douglas mid-season last year and he will continue to start opposite Christian Benford, with Taron Johnson remaining as the slot cornerback in sub packages.

Johnson is one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league, exceeding 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including a career best 80.4 PFF grade last season. Only in his age 28 season, he should continue playing well in 2024, though he might not repeat the best season of his career again and his previous career high PFF grade was 69.7. Douglas also played at a high level last season after being added via trade, with a 80.1 PFF grade on 503 snaps in 9 games. That was also a career best for him, but it wasn’t too out of character for him, as he had PFF grades of 74.8 and 71.1 in 2021 and 2022 as well. The 2017 3rd round pick was a late bloomer, but he’s still only in his age 29 season and should continue being an above average starter in 2024, even if he isn’t quite as good as he was a year ago.

Benford was just a 6th round pick in 2022 and struggled with a 55.7 PFF grade on 363 snaps as a rookie, but he broke out in a big way in 2023, with a 82.2 PFF grade on 824 snaps. He might not be quite as good again, but he played more than well enough to keep his starting job and he has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter, even if he regresses from his improbably good 2023 season. Finding Benford in the 6th round of that 2022 draft makes up for the fact that their first round pick that year, another cornerback Kaiir Elam, has been a big bust thus far, playing just 634 snaps in two seasons in the league, in part due to injuries (18 games missed), in part due to his struggles, as he’s received PFF grades of 56.7 and 58.8 thus far in two seasons in the league. 

Elam is only going into his age 23 season in 2024 still could develop into something useful long-term, but that’s far from a guarantee and he’ll start this season no higher than 4th on the depth chart, given how well the Bills top-3 cornerbacks played ahead of him a year ago. The Bills top cornerback trio of Douglas, Benford, and Johnson all might not be as good as a year ago and they lost their two solid starting safeties, but their cornerbacks should play at a relatively high level and their safeties at least aren’t bad.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Bills probably aren’t as good overall as they were a year ago after some off-season losses, but they were one of the best teams in the league overall last season, finishing 3rd in overall DVOA, and they still have one of the top quarterbacks in the league in Josh Allen, who should continue keeping this team in contention. Whether or not they can finally get over the hump in the loaded AFC and make the Super Bowl over the likes of the Chiefs, Bengals, and Ravens remains to be seen, but they should be considered on the short list of contenders in 2024.

Update: The Bills’ defense was dealt a big blow when they lost Matt Milano for most of the season due to injury. In a loaded AFC, that could leave them on the outside looking in for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 10-7, 3rd in AFC East