Quarterback

A common team building strategy is to draft a young, cheap quarterback, surround him with talent while he’s young and cheap, even at the expense of future cap space, and then by the team the team needs to cut salary around the quarterback, hopefully the quarterback is good enough to succeed even with less help around him. It’s arguably the only way to build a consistent contending team, as the only quarterbacks who have won the Super Bowl in the salary cap era (since 1994) with a cap hit that was more than 11% of the salary cap are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers.

The Bills have followed this blueprint since using the 7th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft on Josh Allen. It took a couple years for the Bills to load up on talent around Allen and for Allen to develop into a top level quarterback, but in his third season in the league in 2020, Allen and the Bills broke out and since then the Bills have gone 48-18 with five playoff victories, with Allen completing 65.5% of his passes for an average of 7.42 YPA, 137 touchdowns, and 57 interceptions, while adding 2,470 yards and 36 touchdowns on 459 carries (5.38 YPC). Overall, he has ranked 5th, 6th, 1st and 1st among quarterbacks on PFF with grades of 90.9, 86.6, 91.6, and 91.2 respectively. 

Unfortunately, despite all their success, Allen and the Bills haven’t reached the ultimate goal of winning a Super Bowl. Now with Allen going into his 7th season in the league and the 2nd season of his massive 6-year, 258 million dollar extension (10th highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual salary), Allen’s cap hit will go over 11% of the cap for the first time and it will only go up from there, so the Bills had to move on from several players this off-season to improve their long-term cap situation. Allen is the kind of quarterback capable of at least keeping this team in contention even with a diminished roster around him, but things will only get harder from here for him.

Allen hasn’t missed any time with injury since his rookie season, despite a playing style that makes him more susceptible to injury. If Allen does happen to miss time this season, the Bills brought back veteran Mitch Trubisky, who backed Allen up in 2021, in between stints as a starter with the Bears from 2017-2020 and as a spot starter with the Steelers from 2022-2023. Trubisky has never lived up to his billing as the 2nd overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, but he’s pretty good as far as backups go, completing 64.1% of his passes for an average of 6.70 YPA, 72 touchdowns, and 48 interceptions in 57 career starts. The Bills would obviously be in a lot of trouble if they lost Allen for an extended period of time, as Allen is a top-5 quarterback, but you could do a lot worse than turning to Trubisky in a worst case scenario.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

In 2023, the Bills finished 11-6, but were better than their record suggested, as they finished the season ranked 3rd in DVOA. After a 5-5 start, the Bills went 6-1 in their final 7 regular season games and came within a couple plays of beating the eventual Super Bowl Champion Chiefs in the second round of the playoffs. That turnaround coincided with the Bills firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replacing him with former quarterbacks coach Joe Brady, but their improved success had more to do with the team doing better in close games than it did with the team actually playing better. In fact, the Bills offense actually got slightly worse as the season went on, after the coordinator switch. Overall on the season, the Bills averaged 5.71 yards per play and had a 33.45% first down rate, but if you more heavily weight their games later in the season, the Bills averages drop to 5.60 yards per play and a 32.97% first down rate. 

The biggest change when Brady took over was this offense became much more run heavy, going from averaging 38.9 pass attempts and 28.2 carries per game with Dorsey calling plays to 33.1 pass attempts and 36.8 carries per game with Brady. Part of that was giving more carries to their running backs, but Josh Allen’s carries also increased from 4.8 per game to 9.0 per game, as Dorsey preferred to keep Allen in the pocket more to help him avoid injury, while Brady used Allen more as a dual threat. 

Utilizing Allen as a runner is not a bad idea in of itself, but Allen’s passing effectiveness decreased down the stretch as well, going from a 70.3% completion percentage, 7.43 YPA average, and 19 touchdowns to 11 interceptions with Dorsey to a 60.7% completion percentage, 7.45 YPA average, and 10 touchdowns to 7 interceptions with Brady and Brady’s scheme probably deserves some of the blame for that. Allen was also a less efficient runner down the stretch than he was early in the season, averaging 4.41 YPC, as opposed to 5.13 YPC with Dorsey as the offensive coordinator. Brady remains as the Bills’ offensive coordinator for the 2024 season, but that might not necessarily be a good thing, even if the team’s record misleadingly shows they were better with Brady calling plays in 2023.

That being said, a more run-heavy game plan might be for the best in 2024, given the personnel changes they made this off-season, as they traded away top wide receiver Stefon Diggs for a 2025 2nd round pick and let #2 wide receiver Gabe Davis leave on a 3-year, 39 million dollar deal in free agency. The Diggs trade didn’t free up any immediate cap space for the Bills in 2024, but they were going to have to take a big dead cap hit whenever they moved on from him and, if Diggs continued on his current trajectory, this might have been the last off-season the Bills could have gotten anything significant for him via trade. 

Diggs still had a 107/1183/8 slash line with 1.99 yards per route run in 2023, but his production significantly decreased down the stretch, as he managed just a 47/422/1 slash line on 80 targets in his final 10 games including playoffs with a 1.30 yards per route run average. That largely coincides with the Bills’ offensive coordinator change and Joe Brady is probably partially to blame for that, but Diggs was also on the wrong side of 30, heading into his age 31 season in 2024, and it’s very possible he’s on the decline in a significant way. 

Davis, meanwhile, was decent with a 45/746/7 slash line and a 1.34 yards per route run average in 2023, but he’s not irreplaceable. To replace Diggs and Davis, the Bills signed veteran Curtis Samuel to a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal, used a second round pick on Keon Coleman, and took fliers on additional veterans in Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Chase Claypool. The Bills will also probably give a bigger role to 2022 5th round pick Khalil Shakir, who took on a bigger role down the stretch last season, at the expense of Stefon Diggs. 

In fact, Shakir had basically the same level of production down the stretch last season as Diggs did, despite a smaller role. In the final 12 games of the season, including playoffs, Shakir had a 41/611/3 slash line on 48 targets with a 1.79 yards per route run average. It’s a small sample size for a player who was not highly drafted and who had previously averaged just 1.23 yards per route run in the first year and a half of his career, but Shakir comes into his third season in the league in 2024 with a lot of upside and could see a big target share. 

Coleman and Samuel are probably locked into big roles by virtue of the significant investments the Bills made in them this off-season, but Shakir figures to at least be a top-3 receiver on this team and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him lead this team in targets, given the Bills’ other options. Coleman has a lot of potential, but enters the league pretty raw and could see a lot of growing pains as a rookie, while Samuel is a decent receiver, but an unspectacular one and one without much upside, going into his age 28 season, having averaged 1.37 yards per route run and 483 yards per season in seven seasons in the league.

As for the veteran fliers the Bills added as depth options, none are likely to have a big impact. Mack Hollins has only exceeded 300 receiving yardage once in seven seasons in the league, has a career 1.12 yards per route run average, and is going into his age 31 season. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is going into his age 30 season with a career average of 1.23 yards per route run and 526 yards per season in six seasons in the league. 

Chase Claypool was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and showed potential early in his career, with slash lines of 62/873/9 and 59/860/2 on an average of 1.84 yards per route run in his first two seasons in the league, but he has averaged only 0.99 yards per route run over the past two seasons, with just 54 catches, only 8 of which came in 2023. He’s still only going into his age 26 season and is the only one of the trio of reserve options with any upside, but he’s still nothing more than a flier.

With concerns at the wide receiver position, the Bills figure to heavily use their two tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Knox was a 3rd round pick in 2019 and spent most of his first four seasons in the league as a starter, averaging 718 snaps per season, but he was underwhelming, averaging 1.13 yards per route run and 445 yards per season, which led to the Bills selecting Kincaid in the first round in the 2023 NFL Draft. 

Kincaid immediately was better than Knox had ever been, with a 73/673/2 slash line and a 1.46 yards per route run average as a rookie, and he out-snapped Knox 699-486. Now going into his second season in the league, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Kincaid take another step forward, but Knox is not a bad #2 tight end and, given the Bills’ wide receiver situation, the Bills figure to use both on the field at the same time frequently. The Bills’ lack a true #1 option, but there are at least some good options, as the Bills try to replace Stefon Diggs’ targets by committee.

Grade: B

Running Backs

In addition to Josh Allen running with the ball more often after Joe Brady took over, lead running back James Cook also saw an uptick in carries, averaging 17.0 carries per game in the final seven games of the regular season and their two playoff games, as opposed to 12.0 carries per game in the first 10 games of the season. It is worth noting that his efficiency dropped off though, like the rest of this offense, as he went from averaging 5.13 yards per carry to 4.33 yards per carry. A 2nd round pick in 2022, Cook flashed a lot of potential with a 5.70 YPC average on 89 rookie year carries, but it’s possible the 5-11 190 back wears down as he sees largely carry totals and would be best off as part of a tandem with a bigger power back. 

Unfortunately, the Bills don’t really have a good option for that role unless they get a surprising rookie season out of 4th round pick Ray Davis, who at least has the size to complement Cook at 5-8 220. Cook is also a good pass catcher, with a yards per route run average of 1.44 in his two seasons in the league. Even when this offense became more run heavy down the stretch last season, Cook saw his pass production increase, with a 28/249/3 slash line in 9 games with Joe Brady, as opposed to 24/222/1 in 10 games with Ken Dorsey. 

Cook figures to continue having a big passing game role, though it’s worth noting that the rookie Davis also has good receiving upside, with 62 catches in his final two collegiate seasons, and the Bills also have veteran Ty Johnson, who has played sparingly in his career, but has seen 74.4% of his career 1,158 snaps come on passing plays, with an average of 1.08 yards per route run (4.44 YPC on 238 career carries, against defenses that were mostly expecting the pass). All three backs could see action in passing situations this season, but Cook figures to remain the feature back, both as a runner and a pass catcher. He has a high upside, but might not be big enough to be a true feature back and their depth behind him is pretty suspect.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Bills also parted ways with long-time center Mitch Morse this off-season, making him a cap casualty ahead of a 8.5 million dollar non-guaranteed salary in 2024, but he won’t be too hard to replace, after he posted a decent, but unspectacular 64.5 PFF grade in 17 starts last season. To replace him, expect the Bills to move left guard Connor McGovern inside. McGovern has only made one start at center in the NFL, but he played there extensively in college and should be able to make the position switch relatively easily. 

McGovern has been underwhelming in 46 career starts in five seasons in the league since going in the third round in 2019 and received a 58.5 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023, but his likely replacement at left guard, David Edwards, could be an upgrade on what Morse was at center so, in the aggregate, the Bills probably won’t miss Morse. Edwards hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2021, but he had PFF grades of 70.3 and 66.9 respectively in 2020 and 2021 with the Rams, while making 31 starts in those two seasons combined. 

Edwards was limited to 230 snaps with the Rams in 2022 by injuries and only played 148 snaps as a reserve with the Bills in 2023, but he’s still only in his age 27 season and should be able to bounce back to being at least a decent starter in 2024. The rest of this offensive line will remain the same in 2024. At the other guard spot opposite Edwards, 2023 2nd round pick O’Cyrus Torrence will be the starter for the second straight season. He was underwhelming with a 56.0 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie in 2023, but he has a good chance to be better in year two, possibly a lot better. 

At tackle, Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown remain, on the left and right side respectively. Dawkins has been their best offensive lineman for years and that should remain the case in 2024. A 2nd round pick in 2017, Dawkins has been a starter since his rookie season, making 106 starts in seven seasons, while never finishing worse than 69.9 on PFF, which came back in his second season in the league in 2018. In 2023, he finished with a 73.7 PFF grade in 17 starts. He’s going into his age 30 season in 2024 and could start to decline soon, but even if he does, he’s likely to remain an above average starter for at least another season.

Brown, on the other hand, is not as good. He did have a career best 68.1 PFF grade in a career high 17 starts in 2023, after the 2021 1st round pick had PFF grades of 62.6 and 51.4 in a combined 24 starts in his first two seasons in the league. Brown is only going into his age 26 season and it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will continue being a solid starter like he was last season, or possibly even better than last season, but he could also regress, given his inconsistent history.

The Bills also signed veteran right tackle La’El Collins in free agency this off-season, but he figures to be a reserve, despite his extensive history as a starter. Collins has made 86 starts in nine seasons in the league and has mostly been an above average starter, including PFF grades of 72.5, 86.4, and 82.0 in 2018, 2019, and 2021 (41 combined starts), but he missed all of 2020 with injury, fell to a 57.9 PFF grade in 2022 (15 starts), then again missed all of the 2023 season with injury, and now heads into his age 31 season with an extensive recent injury history and his last above average season coming three years ago. He’s an above average insurance policy to have and could be a solid starter if forced into action, but I wouldn’t consider him a legitimate threat to Spencer Brown’s starting job at right tackle.

On the interior, the Bills’ depth isn’t as good. They used a 5th round pick on Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, a collegiate center who could also play guard if needed, but he probably would struggle if forced into significant action as a rookie. Will Clapp is their most experienced veteran option and he has the versatility to play both guard and center, but the 2018 7th round pick has finished below 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league (21 starts), including a 56.7 PF grade in a career high 11 starts for the Chargers in 2023. Either way, the Bills would likely be in trouble if one of their interior offensive line starters got hurt this season. This isn’t a bad offensive line overall though, with David Edwards essentially replacing veteran Mitch Morse, which should be at worst a lateral move, and they at least have a good swing tackle option in La’El Collins, even if their interior depth is a concern.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Bills lost more on defense this off-season than they did on offense, with four of their top-9 in terms of snaps played last season now gone, among other more minor players. At the edge defender spot, the Bills lost Leonard Floyd, who had a 56.3 PFF grade on 576 snaps, as well as Shaq Lawson, who played a smaller role, with a 48.1 PFF grade on 322 snaps. In their absence, the Bills will probably give bigger roles to Greg Rousseau (585 snaps) and AJ Epenesa (388 snaps), who excelled in their limited roles last season with PFF grades of 85.6 and 80.3 respectively and pressure rates of 14.9% and 13.1% respectively.

Rousseau was a first round pick in 2021 and has shown a lot of promise in part-time roles through three seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 70.2 and 83.6 on snap counts of 531 and 463 prior to last season and a combined 17 sacks, 26 hits, and 13.6% pressure rate in 46 career games. Still only in his age 24 season, Rousseau could be in for a huge 2024 season if he sees a significantly bigger snap count and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain highly effective in a part-time role.

Epenesa, on the other hand, was a second round pick in 2020 and had posted mostly mediocre grades on PFF prior to last season, finishing in the 50s and 60s with a combined 9.7% pressure rate, and he’s never played more than 388 snaps in a season in four seasons in the league, even including last year. He’s still relatively young in his age 26 season, but doesn’t have the same upside as Rousseau and could easily regress in 2024, especially if he has to play a bigger role and proves unable to hold up on a higher snap count.

The Bills will also be hoping for more out of Von Miller, who was limited to a 45.4 PFF grade and a 7.3% pressure rate in 2023 on a snap count of 257 in 12 games in an injury plagued season. Miller is one of the most accomplished edge defenders in the league over the past decade plus, exceeding 80 on PFF in 11 of 13 seasons in the league, including most recently a 85.8 PFF grade in 2022, albeit in an injury shortened season in which he played just 450 snaps, but he’s now going into his age 35 season with a significant recent injury history and, even if he stays healthy and bounces back in 2024, his best days are almost definitely behind him at this point. Still, if he could even be a talented rotational player for the Bills this season, that would be a big boost over what he gave them a year ago.

The Bills did add some depth to this group this off-season, using a 5th round pick on Javon Solomon and signing veterans Dawuane Smoot and Casey Toohill. Solomon would probably struggle even in a rotational role as a rookie, while Toohill is an underwhelming 2020 7th round pick who has a career 7.4% pressure rate and who received a 52.1 PFF grade on 494 snaps in 2023, but Smoot at least has some potential. 

Smoot struggled mightily with a 42.4 PFF grade on 340 snaps in 2023, while managing just a 6.1% pressure rate, but he was coming off of a major injury and was a lot better in 2021 and 2022, with PFF grades of 68.1 and 70.3 respectively on snap counts of 675 and 445 respectively, while totaling 11 sacks, 18 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate in 31 games. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, Smoot has some bounce back potential as a rotational player if he’s healthy again. The Bills lost a couple rotational players in this group this off-season, but they both struggled, so they won’t be missed and, overall, this is still a talented group.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Bills also lost a couple rotational players at the interior defender spot from a year ago, with Jordan Phillips (391 snaps) and Tim Settle (380 snaps) no longer with the team, but they struggled with PFF grades of 35.8 and 58.2 respectively, so they probably won’t be missed. The replacements the Bills added, veteran journeymen Austin Johnson and DeShawn Williams and third round rookie DeWayne Carter are underwhelming options, but the Bills should at least get more out of DaQuan Jones, who was limited to 174 snaps in 86.0 games by injuries last season.

Jones excelled in his limited action, with a 86.0 PFF grade, playing the run well but also adding a 14.9% pressure rate. That was a little out of character for Jones, who has been a solid, but unspectacular player for most of his career, receiving grades in the 60s and 70s in eight straight seasons prior to last season, and Jones now heads into his age 33 season, so he’s highly unlikely to be as good over a full season this year as he was in limited action last year, but unless he drops off a cliff significantly, a possibility given his age, he should still be a welcome re-addition to this team. His run defense is probably his best attribute, but he also has decent pass rush numbers in his career, with 14.5 sacks, 42 hits, and a 6.5% pressure rate in 139 career games. 

Jones will continue to start next to Ed Oliver, also a solid player, but kind of the opposite of Jones, with mediocre play against the run for most of his career, but also great pass rush production, with 24 sacks, 42 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate in 78 games since going in the first round in 2019. His mediocre run defense has prevented him from exceeding a 71.5 PFF grade in five seasons in the league, but he’s still a useful starter for the Bills and, still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024.

Newcomers Johnson and Carter will compete to be the top reserve interior defender and both figure to have roles. Johnson is an 8-year veteran, but his career high PFF grade for a season is 66.9, which came on just 231 snaps in 2020. He’s finished below 60 on PFF in five of eight seasons in the league, including three straight seasons and the only two seasons in which he exceeded 400 snaps on the season. Last season, he had the worst season of his career with a 45.7 PFF grade on 641 snaps and now he heads into his age 30 season. He figures to continue struggling in 2024, even in a reserve role. 

Williams is also an aging veteran who has struggled for most of his career, going into his age 32 season and coming off of three straight seasons in which he has finished below 60 on PFF, with grades of 56.2, 55.4, and 50.0 on snap counts of 386, 598, and 443 respectively. Carter, meanwhile, profiles as a potential long-term starter, but could have growing pains as a rookie. Oliver and Jones are a solid starting duo, but the Bills’ depth is a concern at this position.

Grade: B

Linebackers

At the linebacker position, the Bills lost Tyrel Dodson, who played at a very high level last season, with a 89.5 PFF grade, albeit on just 550 snaps as an injury replacement for Matt Milano, a regular starter who played just 211 snaps in 5 games in 2023 before suffering a season ending injury. Milano returns healthy for the 2024 season and is an above average every down player when on the field, surpassing 70 on PFF in three straight seasons, but durability has been an issue for him throughout his career, costing him 25 games in 7 seasons in the league, missing time in every season except his rookie season. Milano is still relatively young in his age 29 season, so he should continue playing at a similar level in 2024, but it’s also possible he misses more time with injury and the Bills don’t have a backup plan that is anywhere near as good as Dodson, with 2023 3rd round pick Dorian Williams, who was mediocre on 211 snaps as a rookie last season, as their top reserve.

Terrel Bernard returns as the other every down linebacker opposite Milano. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Bernard showed some promise while playing sparingly as a rookie (111 snaps), before having a solid season as a starter in 2023, with a 64.0 PFF grade on 999 snaps. Still only in his age 25 season, he should continue being at least a solid starter in 2024 and he has the upside to take a step forward and be even better in his third season in the league. Milano and Bernard are a solid linebacking duo, but the Bills’ depth could be a question mark if Dorian Williams doesn’t take a step forward in year two and, even if he does, the Bills will still likely miss Tyrel Dodson, who left as a free agent this off-season.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The position group with the biggest changes on the Bills’ defense this off-season is safety, where the starting duo of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer was let go this off-season, after seven seasons together. Both still played pretty well last season, with PFF grades of 64.4 and 73.0 on snap counts of 796 and 987 respectively, but they were going into their age 34 and age 33 seasons respectively in 2024 and Poyer was owed 5.75 million, so the Bills made him a cap casualty and didn’t re-sign Hyde as a free agent.

The Bills have options to replace them, but they all figure to be downgrades. They used a second round pick on Cole Bishop and added veterans Dee Delaney and Mike Edwards to a group that also has Taylor Rapp, another veteran who played 422 snaps as a reserve last season, but who previously was a starter with the Rams and who has 52 starts in five seasons in the league. Rapp struggled with a 56.4 PFF grade last season, but the 2019 2nd round pick previously had PFF grades over 60 in each of his first four seasons in the league, maxing out at 76.2 on 976 snaps as recently as 2022. Only in his age 27 season, he has some bounce back potential and has a good chance to at least be an average starter.

I would expect Rapp to start alongside the rookie Bishop, but both Delaney and Edwards will be in the mix as well and could win the starting job if Bishop disappoints. Neither have ever been season long starters though, maxing out at 449 snaps and 814 snaps in a season in 6 seasons and 5 seasons in the league respectively. Delaney at least had a 63.4 PFF grade last season on his career high 449 snaps, but Edwards has finished below 60 on PFF in back-to-back seasons. Both would almost definitely be underwhelming starting options if forced into action, so the Bills will be hoping Bishop wins the job, but he could have growing pains as a rookie.

The Bills also moved on from veteran cornerback Tre’Davious White this off-season, rather than paying him 12.5 million in 2024, but he had been very injury prone in recent years and had just a 68.0 PFF grade in just 182 snaps in 4 games last season, so he won’t be missed that much. To replace him, the Bills traded for Rasul Douglas mid-season last year and he will continue to start opposite Christian Benford, with Taron Johnson remaining as the slot cornerback in sub packages.

Johnson is one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league, exceeding 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including a career best 80.4 PFF grade last season. Only in his age 28 season, he should continue playing well in 2024, though he might not repeat the best season of his career again and his previous career high PFF grade was 69.7. Douglas also played at a high level last season after being added via trade, with a 80.1 PFF grade on 503 snaps in 9 games. That was also a career best for him, but it wasn’t too out of character for him, as he had PFF grades of 74.8 and 71.1 in 2021 and 2022 as well. The 2017 3rd round pick was a late bloomer, but he’s still only in his age 29 season and should continue being an above average starter in 2024, even if he isn’t quite as good as he was a year ago.

Benford was just a 6th round pick in 2022 and struggled with a 55.7 PFF grade on 363 snaps as a rookie, but he broke out in a big way in 2023, with a 82.2 PFF grade on 824 snaps. He might not be quite as good again, but he played more than well enough to keep his starting job and he has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter, even if he regresses from his improbably good 2023 season. Finding Benford in the 6th round of that 2022 draft makes up for the fact that their first round pick that year, another cornerback Kaiir Elam, has been a big bust thus far, playing just 634 snaps in two seasons in the league, in part due to injuries (18 games missed), in part due to his struggles, as he’s received PFF grades of 56.7 and 58.8 thus far in two seasons in the league. 

Elam is only going into his age 23 season in 2024 still could develop into something useful long-term, but that’s far from a guarantee and he’ll start this season no higher than 4th on the depth chart, given how well the Bills top-3 cornerbacks played ahead of him a year ago. The Bills top cornerback trio of Douglas, Benford, and Johnson all might not be as good as a year ago and they lost their two solid starting safeties, but their cornerbacks should play at a relatively high level and their safeties at least aren’t bad.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Bills probably aren’t as good overall as they were a year ago after some off-season losses, but they were one of the best teams in the league overall last season, finishing 3rd in overall DVOA, and they still have one of the top quarterbacks in the league in Josh Allen, who should continue keeping this team in contention. Whether or not they can finally get over the hump in the loaded AFC and make the Super Bowl over the likes of the Chiefs, Bengals, and Ravens remains to be seen, but they should be considered on the short list of contenders in 2024.

Update: The Bills’ defense was dealt a big blow when they lost Matt Milano for most of the season due to injury. In a loaded AFC, that could leave them on the outside looking in for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 10-7, 3rd in AFC East

Quarterbacks

For 17 seasons from 2000-2016, the Bills didn’t qualify for the post-season once, one of the longest post-season droughts in the modern era. They made it in 2017, but they barely snuck in with a record of 9-7 and their 21st ranked DVOA suggested they were lucky to even win that many games, so the Bills knew they had to get better long-term. The Bills have made a bunch of moves to improve this roster since then, but their biggest decision was taking a shot on quarterback Josh Allen with the 7th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.

The quarterback position had plagued the Bills for years, with 16 different starting quarterbacks over their 17-year post-season drought, including a pair of first round busts who never amounted to anything (JP Losman and EJ Manuel), but the Bills actually had a decent veteran option in Tyrod Taylor at the time of the Josh Allen selection and it was a big risk for the Bills to give up picks to trade up to select Allen 7th overall, given how raw he was as a prospect. Allen had the physical tools to be an elite quarterback in the NFL, but didn’t show it consistently at the collegiate level, posting mediocre stats on a mediocre team at the University of Wyoming.

As a rookie, Allen showed his physical tools, but also his concerning accuracy, rushing for 7.09 YPC and 8 touchdowns on 89 carries, but completing just 52.8% of his passes for an average of 6.48 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions and posting just a 58.0 PFF grade as a passer, on a Bills team that took a step backwards from their post-season appearance the year before, finishing with a 6-10 record and a 28th ranked DVOA. 

However, the Bills got better around the quarterback the following off-season and, while Allen still had his share of struggles, he showed significant progress as a passer in year two in 2019, completing 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.71 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions and posting a 61.9 PFF grade as a passer, while also averaging a 4.68 YPC average and 9 touchdowns on 109 carries, en route to leading the Bills to a 13th ranked finish in DVOA their best record since 1999 at 10-6, securing the team their second playoff appearance in three seasons.

From there, things only got better for the Bills. The team they had spent two decades looking up at in the standings and consistently losing to head-to-head, the New England Patriots, lost their long-time franchise quarterback Tom Brady during the 2020 off-season and, at the same time, Josh Allen broke out as a legitimate franchise quarterback for the Bills in year three. In three seasons since, Allen has completed 65.2% of his passes for an average of 7.41 YPA, 108 touchdowns, and 39 interceptions, with 5.59 YPC and 21 touchdowns on 348 carries, and overall PFF grades of 90.9, 86.6, 91.6, while the Bills have won the division three straight times and have gone a combined 37-12 in the regular season, the second best record in the league over that stretch, only behind the Kansas City Chiefs. In terms of DVOA, the Bills have ranked 4th, 2nd, and 1st over the past three seasons.

Unfortunately, for the Bills, this regular season success hasn’t translated to the post-season yet, as the Bills have lost before the Super Bowl in all three seasons, twice to the Chiefs and last season to the Bengals, who have emerged as the other two powerhouses in the AFC at the same time as the Bills. The Bills have a similarly strong roster this season as they have had in the past three seasons and Josh Allen remains an elite quarterback in his prime (age 27 seasons), so the Bills should still be considered among the best teams in the conference, but their conference and division have both gotten significantly better since last season, which hurts their chances of making it out of the AFC and playing in their first Super Bowl in three decades.

Obviously losing Josh Allen for an extended period of time would hurt their chances significantly of even making the post-season, regardless of who was backing him up, but even as far as backup quarterbacks go, the Bills have pretty mediocre ones with veteran journeymen Kyle Allen and Matt Barkley expected to compete for the #2 job behind Josh Allen. Barkley has been with the Bills for years, first joining the team in 2018, and he knows the playbook well, but he has just one start and 97 pass attempts in his tenure with the Bills and the 10-year veteran has a career QB rating of just 66.6 in 7 career starts, while Kyle Allen has a career QB rating of just 82.2 in 19 career starts. Josh Allen’s presence obviously makes this an enviable quarterback room and he hasn’t missed a start with injury in the past four seasons, despite taking more hits than the average quarterback because of his playing style, but it would be a big concern if Allen did suffer an injury that caused him to miss a significant amount of time.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Aside from Josh Allen, probably the biggest addition the Bills have made to turn this franchise around is wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who they acquired from Minnesota for a first round pick during the 2020 off-season. That coincides with when Josh Allen and the Bills really took off as a team and, while Diggs doesn’t deserve all the credit, he has been one of the best wide receivers in the league over that span, with a 2.29 yards per route run average and slash lines of 127/1535/8, 103/1225/10, and 108/1429/11. 

Diggs wasn’t as productive early in his career in Minnesota, but that was in large part because the Vikings were a much run-heavier offense than the Bills. Including his time in Minnesota, Diggs’ career yards per route run average is 2.12 and he’s exceeded a 75 grade on PFF in all eight seasons, including five seasons over 80 and a career best 90.1 grade in 2022. Diggs is now heading into his age 30 season and will probably start to decline soon, but even if he drops off a little, he should remain one of the best wide receivers in the league in 2023.

The rest of this receiving corps is a bit of a concern though. When the Bills first acquired Diggs, they had other useful receivers in Cole Beasley and John Brown, but those veterans declined and are no longer with the team and the Bills haven’t really found good replacements. Gabe Davis, a 4th round pick in 2020, was given every opportunity to have a big year opposite Diggs in 2022, after averaging 1.29 yards per route run as a rookie and 1.62 yards per route run in his second season in the league in 2021, but Davis didn’t make the most of that, falling back to 1.43 yards per route run and only catching 51.6% of his 93 targets. 

Davis did average 17.4 yards per catch and his 48/836/7 slash line wasn’t bad overall, but he had 3/171/2 of that in one game and was very inconsistent throughout the year, falling below 40 receiving yards 8 times in 15 games and catching 3 of fewer passes 10 times, which kept this offense from it’s highest potential. Meanwhile, slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie was even worse, with just a 42/423/4 slash line on 65 targets and 1.10 yards per route run, while tight end Dawson Knox had just a 48/517/6 slash line also on 65 targets, also with 1.10 yards per route run.

The Bills didn’t really do much to improve this group this off-season, at least in the short-term. Davis looks likely to be locked into the #2 receiver job, without any real competition added, and the Bills will hope he can take a step forward, still only in his age 24 season, which is at least a possibility, even if it might not be a strong one. McKenzie is gone, but the veteran options they signed to potentially replace him, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty, are both underwhelming, which likely means Khalil Shakir, who averaged just 1.14 yards per route run in limited action as a 5th round rookie in 2022, and Justin Shorter, a 5th round pick in this year’s draft, will also compete for playing time behind DIggs and Davis. 

Harty has flashed potential with 2.05 yards per route run in four seasons in the league, but the former undrafted free agent has never gotten consistent playing time, leading to him having just 64 career catches, and at 5-6 170 it’s hard to see him ever being effective as anything more than a situational player. Sherfield, meanwhile, has averaged just 0.91 yards per route run in five seasons in the league, with a career high of 30 catches in a season and a total of 67 catches in his career. Whoever wins the #3 receiver job will almost definitely struggle in that role and it’s very possible the Bills will mix and match their options depending on the situation to try to get the most out of this underwhelming group.

The one big addition the Bills made to this group this off-season was using their first round pick on tight end Dalton Kincaid, who was arguably the best receiving tight end in the draft. With Dawson Knox still being on the team and at least being a decent, if unspectacular tight end option (1.13 yards per route run in four seasons in the league since going in the 3rd round in 2019), the Bills will probably use a lot more two-tight end sets this season to offset their lack of depth at the wide receiver position, with Kincaid likely to spend a lot of the year as essentially a big slot receiver option at 6-4 246. However, rookie tight ends rarely make a big impact in year one and it’s unlikely Kincaid will be the consistent #2 option that the Bills lacked last season. This isn’t a bad receiving corps, especially with #1 wide receiver Stefon Diggs elevating this group significantly by himself, but there are concerns with this group after Diggs.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Over the past two seasons respectively, the Bills have ranked 6th in yards per carry with 4.79 and 2nd in yards per carry with 5.19, but much of that is because of Josh Allen’s dominance on the ground, averaging 6.20 YPC on 246 carries. Lead back Devin Singletary averaged 4.63 YPC on 365 carries over that stretch, but he benefited significantly from defenses worrying about Josh Allen running or Josh Allen throwing it deep, making life much easier for Bills running backs, and the Bills felt they could do better than him this off-season, letting him sign with the Texans on a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal. Singletary also played heavily in passing situations, but was highly inefficient, averaging just 0.72 yards per route run and 5.03 yards per target in his four seasons in Buffalo.

To replace Singletary, the Bills signed ex-Patriots running back Damien Harris to a 1-year, 1.77 million dollar deal and they will give a bigger role to 2022 2nd round pick James Cook, who impressed in limited action as a rookie, averaging 5.70 YPC on 89 carries and 1.43 yards per route run as a pass catcher. Harris had a solid 4.66 YPC average with 20 touchdowns on 449 carries in his four seasons in New England, who selected him in the 3rd round in 2019, and he figures to have a significant role as an early down back in Buffalo, but Cook also figures to have a significant early down role, in addition to being their primary passing down back, with Harris averaging 1.10 yards per route run for his career, with just 40 catches in 38 career games. 

Harris and Cook figure to be a good running back tandem, with Cook having the potential for a big breakout year in his second season in the league, even if he isn’t as efficient as he was a year ago and even if he splits carries with Harris. On top of that, the Bills have good depth, signing veteran Latavius Murray to be their 3rd running back. Murray is going into his age 33 season, might not have much left in the tank, and only has a career 0.91 yards per route run average in the passing game, but Murray has averaged 4.22 YPC on 1,481 carries a in 10 seasons in the league, including 4.39 YPC on 160 carries just last season, so you could do a lot worse as your #3 back and he should be able to fill in at least a few carries per game if needed. This is a pretty deep backfield and their likely top back James Cook has the potential for a big year in year two.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The biggest weakness on this Bills’ offense last season was their offensive line, as they ranked 22nd on PFF in team pass blocking grade and 28th in team run blocking grade, and the guard position was particularly a problem. Left guard Rodger Saffold made every start, but finished with just a 43.7 PFF grade and, while right guard Ryan Bates was better with a 61.8 PFF grade, he’s an underwhelming starting option as a former undrafted free agent who had only made four nondescript starts in four seasons in the league prior to last season.

To upgrade the guard position, the Bills cut Saffold, signed Connor McGovern and David Edwards as veteran options, and then used a 2nd round pick on Florida’s O’Cyrus Torrence. Those three will compete for the two starting spots with Bates and, while all four options have their problems, this should be a better position group by default than a year ago. Torrence has the most upside of the bunch and could wind up being the best guard from this draft when all is said and done, but he could have some growing pains in year one. Edwards had PFF grades of 70.3 and 66.9 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, while making 31 total starts, and he is only in his age 26 season, but concussion limited him to just 4 starts last season and, at one point, seemed to threaten his career. 

Edwards and Torrence are probably their best two options, but they will have to compete for the job, given that the Bills’ other options have some potential too. McGovern has made 29 starts over the past 3 seasons, went in the 3rd round in 2019, and had a 61.7 PFF grade in 8 starts in 2020 and 68.7 PFF grade in 6 starts in 2021, but that fell to 52.2 in 15 starts in 2022 in the most action of his career. He’s only in his age 26 season though, so there’s still some potential there. Bates, as I mentioned, is a former undrafted free agent with a limited history of starting and probably doesn’t have a high upside, but he was at least serviceable a year ago and potentially could do that again. They have a good chance to find a couple at least decent starters out of these four.

Right tackle was also a position of weakness last season, with Spencer Brown (14 starts) and David Quessenberry (3 starts) finishing with PFF grades of 51.4 and 59.3 respectively last season. The Bills did add veteran journeyman Brandon Shell to the mix this off-season and he’s been a capable starter for most of his career and could be an option for the Bills this season, but he’s also going into his age 31 season and has never exceeded 14 starts in a season in seven seasons in the league, so he’s a pretty underwhelming option, even if he could be an upgrade by default over what they got at the position last season. 

Fortunately, the Bills could get bounce back years from either Brown or Quessenberry. Brown was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and had a decent 62.6 PFF grade in 10 starts as a rookie, before regressing in year two, and he easily could bounce back at least to his rookie year form in his third season in the league in 2023. Quessenberry, meanwhile, had a 80.6 PFF grade as a 17-game starter in 2021, but he is also a complete one-year wonder who has just 10 career starts and a career high 61.7 PFF grade for a season aside from his 2021 campaign. Now going into his age 33 season, it seems unlikely he will bounce all the way back to his 2021 form, but he could at least be better in 2023 than he was in 2022.

At center and left tackle respectively, veterans Mitch Morse and Dion Dawkins are locked into starting roles again this season. Morse has been a solid starter throughout his 8-year career, making 109 total starts and exceeding 60 on PFF in all eight seasons, but his 61.4 PFF grade in 2022 was a career worst and now he’s going into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him and he could easily continue declining, in which case he would likely end up as a below average starter, even if only slightly.

Dawkins is the best of the bunch, making 89 starts in six seasons in the league, since going in the second round in 2017, and finishing with PFF grades of 83.0, 69.9, 73.4, 78.1, 77.5, and 73.5 in those six seasons respectively. Still only in his age 29 season, Dawkins should remain an above average starting option in 2023. This offensive line will probably be better than a year ago, but this is still an underwhelming group overall, even with Dion Dawkins elevating this group by himself.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

In addition to their impressive offense, which ranked 2nd in offensive DVOA last season, the Bills also had a strong defense in 2022, ranking 4th in defensive DVOA. It’s much tougher to be consistently great on defense than it is to be consistently great on offense and defensive performance is much less predictive year-to-year than offensive performance, but there are reasons that the Bills have a better chance to remain a high-level defense than most teams would. 

For one, the Bills also had an elite defense in 2021, ranking 1st in defensive DVOA, so last year wasn’t a fluke. The Bills also are bringing back most of their key players from a year ago, with 17 of their top-18 in terms of snaps played last season still on the team this season. The Bills also added some key players in free agency this off-season and should be better at some positions than they were a year ago and they should be healthier than a year ago, when they actually had the 2nd most adjusted games lost to injury in the league on defense, excelling defensively despite several key absences.

One position group that should be better than a year ago is the edge defender group. Not only will they likely get a healthier year out of top edge defender Von Miller, who was limited to 450 snaps played in 11 games by injury last season, but they also added veteran Leonard Floyd in free agency on a 1-year, 7 million dollar deal to give them even more depth at the position. With 2021 1st round pick Greg Rousseau, 2020 2nd round pick AJ Epenesa, and 2021 2nd round pick Boogie Basham also in the mix, the Bills have a very deep group at this position.

If healthy, Von Miller has a good chance to remain the best of the bunch. There is some concern with Miller being in his age 34 season and coming off of a major injury, but the future Hall of Famer has surpassed a 79 grade on PFF in all 12 seasons in the league, with a whopping eight seasons over 90, and he didn’t show any real signs of decline before his injury last season, with a 85.8 PFF grade and 8 sacks, 4 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate, not far off from his career pass rush stats of 123.5 sacks, 133 hits, and a 15.7% pressure rate in 162 career games. 

Between his age and his significant injury, there’s a good chance Miller declines at least somewhat in 2023, but he’s declining from such a high level that he has a good chance to remain one of the better players in the league at his position, even if he isn’t quite as good as he’s been in the past, and the Bills should benefit from having him likely be more available than he was a year ago, even if it’s possible he isn’t quite ready to return in week 1.

If Miller isn’t the Bills’ top edge defender this season, it will probably have more to do with the performance of Greg Rousseau in his third season in the league than Miller declining significantly. Rousseau has been limited to snap counts of 531 and 463 in his first two seasons in the league respectively, but that was partially because he missed four games with injury in 2023 and he’s impressed when on the field, with a 70.2 PFF grade as a rookie and then a 83.6 PFF grade in year two, when he had 8 sacks, 6 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate, despite his limited playing time. He probably won’t get a ton of playing time in 2023, even if he does continue improving, just because this is a very deep position, but the first round pick has a ton of upside and his third season in the league could end up being his best year yet.

Basham and Epenesa could also take a step forward in 2023, though they don’t nearly have the upside that Rousseau has. Basham has only played 589 snaps in 23 games in two seasons in the league in a very deep position group, but he’s received decent grades of 62.2 and 66.4 from PFF and could take a step forward and/or see more playing time in his third season in the league in 2023. Epenesa is in a pretty similar situation, having only played 332 snaps per season in his first three seasons in the league and posting mostly middling grades, but having the upside to take a step forward in his fourth season in the league in 2023, still only in his age 25 season, making him actually a year younger than Basham, even though Basham was drafted the year after Epenesa.

The veteran Floyd came relatively cheap in free agency, but he should have a role even in this deep position group and he was a good value. Floyd has averaged 895 snaps played per season over the past five seasons and has 47.5 sacks, 54 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate in 104 games in seven seasons in the league, while surpassing 60 on PFF in all seven seasons. Last season, he had a 65.7 PFF grade across 932 snaps with 9 sacks, 12 hits, and 11.2% pressure rate. He’s in his age 31 season now, but he also figures to see his snap count cut probably by about half in Buffalo, which should keep him fresher and allow him to be more efficient as he ages, so he should still be a useful part of their edge defender rotation, barring an unexpected massive drop off. 

Floyd’s presence will likely force veteran Shaq Lawson off the roster, just purely in a numbers game, but he wasn’t bad with a 61.8 PFF grade on 467 snaps last season and he’s mostly been a useful rotational edge defender in his career, surpassing 60 on PFF in five of the past six seasons, while playing an average of 489 snaps per season, so, even if he’s unlikely to make their final roster, he’s still good insurance to have if someone gets hurt between now and the start of the season. This is arguably the best edge defender group in the league, with high level talent in Von Miller and Greg Rousseau, as well as great depth. 

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, the Bills bring back their top-4 in terms of snaps played last season, DaQuan Jones (643 snaps), Ed Oliver (526 snaps), Tim Settle (372 snaps), and Jordan Phillips (347 snaps). Jones and Oliver figure to remain the starters after solid seasons in which they had PFF grades of 72.6 and 68.5 respectively. That wasn’t out of the ordinary for those two either. Jones has played an average of 630 snaps per season over the past eight seasons, while surpassing 60 on PFF in all eight seasons, including five seasons over 70. He’s at his best against the run, but also has a decent 6.1% pressure rate for his career. The concern with him is he’s going into his age 32 season and could start to decline soon, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does drop off somewhat in 2023, he has a good chance to remain at least a decent starting option.

Ed Oliver, meanwhile, has been inconsistent against the run in four seasons in the league, since being selected 9th overall in 2019, but he’s consistently been an above average pass rusher, with 14.5 sacks, 34 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 62 career games, and he’s coming off of a career best 68.7 grade against the run in 2022. Still only in his age 26 season, it’s possible he could have further untapped upside and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain at least a solid starting option with above average interior pass rush ability.

The Bills depth options were underwhelming last season, with Settle and Phillips finishing with PFF grades of 53.8 and 52.2 respectively, but the Bills did make an addition at this position this off-season that should improve their depth, with veteran Poona Ford coming over from the Seahawks on a 1-year, 2.25 million dollar deal, which could be a steal. Ford comes cheap because he finished last season with a career worst 56.2 PFF grade on 642 snaps, but the 2018 undrafted free agent had a 90.3 PFF grade on 231 snaps as a rookie, a 73.4 PFF grade on 506 snaps in 2019, a 81.9 PFF grade on 670 snaps in 2020, and a 73.0 PFF grade on 802 snaps in 2021, so he has obvious bounce back potential in 2023, still only in his age 28 season, especially since he is unlikely to have to play the same snap count as he did in his final seasons in Seattle. 

Throughout his career, Ford has been at his best against the run, but he also has a solid 6.4% pressure rate for his career and should be a useful, well-rounded reserve for this team. The Bills also could get a better year out of Tim Settle, who exceeded 60 on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league prior to joining the Bills last off-season. He only averaged 252 snaps per game in those four seasons, but the Bills won’t need much more than that from him in 2023 and, still only in his age 26 season, the 2018 5th round pick has obvious bounce back potential. 

Jordan Phillips is probably the worst of the bunch, as he’s been below 60 on PFF in all but one of his eight seasons in the league and is now heading into his age 31 season, but the Bills won’t need much, if anything from him in 2023 with Ford being added and, as mediocre as he’s been overall in his career, he does have a decent 7.4% career pressure rate, with his poor run defense usually being the cause of his mediocre overall grades. This is a pretty solid position group overall, one that should have better play from their reserves than they did a year ago.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The one key player from last year’s defense that the Bills didn’t retain this off-season is linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. Edmunds had a 79.0 PFF grade across 760 snaps in 13 games and there’s no way around the fact that losing him is a big deal, but this is still a very talented defense even without him, with likely better health than a year ago and the additions of Leonard Floyd and Poona Ford on the defensive line. Even the Bills’ linebacking corps is still in good shape without Edmunds, with other top linebacker Matt Milano (73.7 PFF grade across 946 snaps) still on the roster and a pair of intriguing young players who will compete to replace Edmunds, 2022 3rd round pick Terrel Bernard, who flashed some potential in very limited action as a rookie (111 snaps), and this year’s 3rd round pick, Tulane’s Dorian Williams.

Both Bernard and Williams are raw and are obviously projections to larger roles and, even if they do pan out, they are highly unlikely to be as good as Edmunds was a year ago, but they’re not bad options either and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if whoever wins that position battle ended up being at least a capable starter. Milano, meanwhile, has exceeded 70 on PFF in three of the past five seasons, including back-to-back seasons in 2021 and 2022, and he’s averaged 55.5 snaps per game in those five seasons, including 60.1 snaps per game over the past two seasons, so he’s more than capable of being a top every down linebacker, still only in his age 28 season.

The Bills also still have Tyrel Dodson, who was technically their third linebacker a year ago, playing 220 snaps in just 8 games, but he struggled mightily with a 48.4 PFF grade and the 2019 undrafted free agent has never exceeded a 60 grade on PFF for a season, while playing just 471 snaps total in his career, so he’s probably not a realistic starting option, even with Edmunds gone. Losing Tremaine Edmunds obviously hurts, but, even without him, this is not a bad linebacking corps and the Bills have more than enough talent at other positions to make up for the loss of Edmunds.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The position group that should benefit most from being healthier this season is the Bills’ secondary, which saw talented safety Micah Hyde go down for the season in week 2 and only got 307 snaps in six games out of expected top cornerback Tre’Davious White, who did not look like himself after a late season return from a torn ACL suffered late in the 2021 season, finishing the 2022 season with just a 61.9 PFF grade in his limited action. 

Hyde will almost definitely play more games in 2023 than a year ago and he had finished above 75 on PFF in four of his previous five seasons prior to the injury, so his return will be very much welcome, even if he could start to decline, now in his age 33 season. Meanwhile, White has a great chance to bounce back, another year removed from the injury, still only in his age 28 season, with three seasons over 75 in coverage grade on PFF in his five seasons in the league prior to 2022.

Hyde will start next to Jordan Poyer, also a long-time above average safety, who is also getting up there in age, in his age 32 season. Poyer could easily start declining this season, but he’s finished with PFF grades of 74.2, 75.2, 78.2, and 75.4 over the past four seasons respectively, with just five games missed over that stretch, so he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he starts declining this season, he’s declining from a high enough level that he should remain at least an above average starter, barring an unexpected massive decline.

At cornerback, in addition to likely a healthier year out of Tre’Davious White, the Bills should also get a better year out of Kaiir Elam, who was a first round pick in 2022, but struggled with a 56.7 PFF grade on 477 rookie year snaps, failing to secure a consistent starting role (six starts), despite the absence of White. Elam has the potential to be a lot better in year two though and is probably the favorite to start opposite White. 

The Bills also have a solid slot cornerback in Taron Johnson, who has exceeded a 60 grade on PFF in all five seasons in the league, including a 68.3 PFF grade on a career high 969 snaps in 2022. Johnson can play outside, in addition to on the slot, which he did more than ever last season, so he’s also a candidate to start next to White, with Elam coming in as the third cornerback when Johnson moves to the slot, but Johnson is at his best on the slot and the Bills would probably prefer to let him focus on that.

With Hyde and White expected to be healthier, Damar Hamlin (845 snaps) and Dane Johnson (830 snaps) are expected to move back to reserve roles in 2023. Hamlin was actually decent with a 61.4 PFF grade last season, before his season ended in scary fashion when he collapsed during the Bills’ week 17 game against the Bengals, and assuming he can make a full recovery, the 2021 6th round pick is a solid reserve option. In addition to last season’s decent performance in a starting role, Hamlin also flashed a lot of potential as a rookie in 2021, albeit on just 50 snaps.

Dane Johnson, meanwhile, struggled with a 57.5 PFF grade in his extended action last season and, as a result, he is probably not a real candidate to compete with Elam and Taron Johnson for a top-3 job, but the 2020 7th round pick was decent depth on snap counts of 193 and 482 in his first two seasons in the league and is not a bad reserve cornerback. The Bills also have 2022 6th round pick Christian Benford, who saw 363 rookie year snaps and, at times, played ahead of the much higher drafted Kaiir Elam, but Benford too struggled with a 55.7 PFF grade and would be best as a reserve option as well. This secondary should be much better than a year ago with White and Hyde likely to be healthier and Kaiir Elam expected to be better in his second season in the league. This is a deep and talented group overall.

Grade: A-

Conclusion

The Bills have been one of the better teams in the league over the past three seasons, finishing in the top-4 in DVOA in all three seasons, including back-to-back seasons in the top-10 in both offensive and defensive DVOA. They have a good chance to do that again in 2023, with minimal key losses on either side of the ball this off-season. Losing Tremaine Edmunds hurts their defense, but they should be much healthier on that side of the ball this season, with Micah Hyde, Von Miller, and Tre’Davious White being the most noteworthy players who will almost definitely be more available this season, and they added a pair of key rotational players on the defensive line in Leonard Floyd and Poona Ford, so they could easily remain a top defense in 2023, even without Edmunds. 

The Bills haven’t broken through and won or even made the Super Bowl yet, and the AFC is even better this year, so they will have a tough path out to that elusive Super Bowl appearance, but they have as good of a chance as any team to win the AFC and, if they do that, they would almost definitely be favored in the Super Bowl over any team in the weaker NFC. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 12-5, 1st in AFC East