Last week: 18 (-2)
Record: 4-7
Week 11 Studs
RE Kyle Williams
DT Marcell Dareus
FS Jairus Byrd
Week 11 Duds
RG Kraig Urbik
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Bills
Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#18)
Last week: 17 (-1)
Record: 3-7
The Bills have 6 games remaining and will probably be favored in 5 of them, including 3 at home, where they have been very good, beating Carolina and Baltimore and almost beating Kansas City, New England, and Cincinnati. EJ Manuel struggled in his first game back, but he’ll get healthy and he won’t have to deal with rookie destroyer Dick LeBeau every week. CJ Spiller is getting healthier and so is their secondary. They’re 3-7, but don’t be surprised if they finish 8-8.
Week 10 Studs
RE Kyle Williams
LE Alan Branch
ROLB Jerry Hughes
DT Marcell Dareus
SS Aaron Williams
Week 10 Duds
QB EJ Manuel
CB Stephon Gilmore
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New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick
New York Jets (5-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-7)
The Bills may be 3-7, but they’ve faced a tough schedule, which now gets easier. They will probably be favored in 5 of their remaining 6 games, including 3 at home, where they’ve been very good. This is the first of the games in which they will be favored at home. So far at home, they’ve beaten Carolina and Baltimore and almost beaten Kansas City, Cincinnati, and New England. That’s 4 likely playoff teams and a 5th who is a wild card contender and the defending Super Bowl champions. With the exception of maybe Baltimore, all of those teams are definitely better than these Jets.
The Bills are also getting healthier. EJ Manuel struggled in his first game back against Pittsburgh, completing 22 of 39 for 155 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception in a 23-10 loss that wasn’t as close as that would suggest. However, he’s another week healthier this week and he won’t be facing rookie destroyer Dick LeBeau, who is now 19-2 against rookie quarterbacks. CJ Spiller is getting healthier, as is their secondary, which was without Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd to start the season. There’s a good chance they finish at 8-8, despite starting 3-7, starting with a victory here.
The reason this isn’t a significant play on the Bills though is because they have a big trend working against them. Since 2002, home favorites of 1-3.5 are 16-39 ATS before a bye, including 2-15 ATS in a divisional matchup. This does make some sense. Small home favorites are generally comparable or slightly inferior to their opponent, which is the case here.
Teams in that dynamic might just assume a victory at home going into a bye and completely overlook their opponent, which is not something you should be doing with a comparable opponent. As a result, not only do they rarely cover the spread, but they also lose the game outright more than 2 out of 3 times dating back to 2002. Being in a divisional matchup makes it worse. That’s only enough to scare me off of making a big play on Buffalo though, not to change sides. They should still be the right side. I just wish they were home dogs, even if it was only by a point or two.
Buffalo Bills 20 New York Jets 17
Pick against spread: Buffalo -1
Confidence: Low
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Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#17)
Last week: 26 (+9)
Record: 3-6
The team most likely to come out of nowhere to make the playoffs is the Buffalo Bills. They’ve have to go 6-1 at least the rest of the way, but they’ve played a tough schedule tough and now their remaining opponents are a combined 20-38. They’ve faced the Patriots, Chiefs, Bengals, Ravens, and Panthers at home and though they went 2-3, they could have easily won all 3 games, including last week, when their offense outscored the undefeated Chiefs’ offense, despite Jeff Tuel being under center. The Chiefs won on 2 turnover return touchdowns. The rest of the way, they will probably be underdogs just twice, including at a very beatable Pittsburgh team this week and at New England week 17, who could be resting starters. CJ Spiller might finally be healthy after last week’s explosive performance and they get EJ Manuel back this week. Manuel will have to convince me he’s an upgrade over Thad Lewis before I am sold on them 100%, because before his injury he wasn’t, but he certainly has the ability to do so.
Week 9 Studs
RB CJ Spiller
ROLB Mario Williams
Week 9 Duds
QB Jeff Tuel
TE Scott Chandler
C Eric Wood
WR TJ Graham
CB Stephon Gilmore
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Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (3-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6)
The Steelers are one team that I don’t really have a beat on. Their offense has been massively improved since the bye, but their aging defense seems to be heading in the opposite direction. Any time you allow 55 points, even to the Patriots, who can tear up anyone when they’re right, it’s a bad sign. They are still getting killed in turnovers (-11), which probably won’t continue going forward, especially since it’s largely the result of a 26.3% rate of fumble recovery. They are moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents, allowed by their defense.
The Bills have a similar differential, moving the chains at a 69% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. They are better than their record, beating the Dolphins in Miami, the Panthers and Ravens at home, and almost beating both New England and Cincinnati. Last week, their offense outscored the Chiefs’ offense, despite starting undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel and only lost because of two return touchdowns by the Chiefs’ defense.
This week, they get EJ Manuel back from injury, which could improve their offense. However, there’s no guarantee he’ll be 100% off of an extended absence and it’s not like he was playing great football before he was hurt. He’s actually still ProFootballFocus’ 2nd worst ranked quarterback ahead of only Geno Smith despite the limited playing time. Thaddeus Lewis, meanwhile, ranks 25th out of 35. Not great, but better than Manuel. Statistically, Manuel is completing 56.7% of his passes for 6.6 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Lewis, meanwhile, is completing 60.3% of his passes for an average of 6.3 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions with a slightly better quarterback rating.
Manuel is going to be better long-term most likely and it’s good to get him playing time, but, as for the short term, all you can say for sure is that he’ll be better than Jeff Tuel, and the rest of the team might slack off around him with their quarterback back. Their offense could still really struggle, even against Pittsburgh’s aging defense. They’ll need to establish CJ Spiller, who finally broke out last week, rushing for 116 yards on 12 attempts. There’s no guarantee he can do that again, especially since he admitted his ankle is still hurting him. On top of that, all of the Bills’ impressive performances have been at home this season. On the road, they are just 1-3 ATS.
If I had to take a side, I guess it would be the Bills. I’m not confident at all, but I guess if I had to bet on something, it would be CJ Spiller continuing to play well and the Bills being in the better spot distractions wise. There’s much less likely to be distracted with a home game against the Jets on deck, whereas the Steelers have to deal with a better Detroit team next week. Teams are 114-82 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites. I have no confidence though.
Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Buffalo Bills 17
Pick against spread: Buffalo +3
Confidence: None
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Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (8-0) at Buffalo Bills (3-5)
Damnit. I was so ready to pick an upset here for Buffalo. Buffalo is better than their record, especially at home. In 4 home games, they’ve beaten a pair of top-15 teams on these Power Rankings (Carolina, Baltimore) and almost beat another pair of top-10 teams (New England, Cincinnati). I don’t think the Chiefs are significantly better than the teams the Bills have played close and beaten here in Buffalo.
The Chiefs are 8-0, but they aren’t nearly as good as their record. They are overly reliant on winning the turnover battle (+12), recovering fumbles (63.6%), and winning close games (3-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less), in addition to their cupcake schedule (5 of their opponents are in the bottom-10 of my Power Rankings). In the past 2 weeks, they won at home by a combined 7 points over two 3rd string quarterbacks (Jason Campbell, Case Keenum). They are just 10th in DVOA, as opposed to 17th for Buffalo.
There’s a reason this line is only 4. It’s clearly a trap line and the public is all over it, with a huge amount of the action on the Chiefs. It makes sense. The general public looks at this and is like “the Chiefs are 8-0 and the Bills are 3-5, how can they not win by more than 4? FREE MONEY!!!” That’s how not it works. If it was, everyone would be rich and the odds makers would be out of business, instead of building giant casinos in the desert. The Chiefs are also in a bad spot. Road favorites are 24-41 ATS since 1989 off of 3 straight home games. They won’t be used to a hostile environment after nearly a month at home.
However, Thaddeus Lewis is not expected to play in this one with injury and illness, meaning undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel will get the start. He was understandably awful in Cleveland in the only action of his career, going 8 of 20 for 80 yards and a pick six. You couldn’t pay me to bet anything on him (that’s not true, I’d bet the amount of money you paid me to bet on them), especially since the line hasn’t really moved. I’d still take the Bills out of principle if I had to because I still believe it’s a trap line, but Jeff Tuel sucks.
Kansas City Chiefs 16 Buffalo Bills 13
Pick against spread: Buffalo +4
Confidence: None
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Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#26)
Last week: 24 (-2)
Record: 3-5
There’s no shame in getting blown in New Orleans, where the Saints have won and covered in their last 13 instances under Sean Payton. The Bills haven’t been the same team on the road this season as they have been at home, where they’ve beaten a pair of top-15 teams on these Power Rankings (Carolina, Baltimore) and almost beat another pair of top-10 teams (New England, Cincinnati). However, they return there this week to face a Kansas City team that isn’t as good as their record and might just hand them their first loss.
Week 8 Studs
RE Kyle Williams
DT Marcell Dareus
CB Nickell Robey
Week 8 Duds
QB Thad Lewis
ROLB Jerry Hughes
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Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-1)
I think the Bills are an underrated team. The Bills may just be 3-4, but they’ve been pretty decent this season. They’ve had a tough schedule, with each of their opponents being 3-4 or better at this point. They’ve been underdogs in all 7 games and they have covered 5 of 7 spreads. The only game they’ve lost by more than a touchdown came in Cleveland after a pick six by backup Jeff Tuel. They beat a pair of top-15 teams on my Power Rankings in Buffalo (Baltimore, Carolina) and almost beat New England and Cincinnati.
Their defense has been strong, allowing opponents to move the chains at just a 71% rate and they’ll only get better with Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd healthy. Offensively, they are actually one of two teams to have scored 20 points or more in every game, along with Denver. Thaddeus Lewis isn’t great, but he can do enough for the Bills to win a few games going forward. That being said, I think this line is pretty reasonable at 12 points. They are moving the chains at a 68% rate offensively, giving them a -3% rate of moving the chains rate. The Saints, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 79% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents, a +9% differential, 3rd in the NFL.
The Bills, however, have been much better at home, covering all 4 spreads, but they covered their first spread of the season on the road last week. This is a different situation. Unlike Miami last week, the Saints are not overrated. The Dolphins, despite their record, are actually 29th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Saints also aren’t in a bad spot like the Dolphins were last week. While the Dolphins had a game in New England to distract them, the Saints go to New York to play the Jets next week. Since 2002, 7+ point non-divisional home favorites are 65-38 ATS before being road non-divisional favorites.
The Bills, meanwhile, are actually the ones in the bad spot. They might not be as focused as they’d need to in order to hang with the Saints, after a big upset in Miami last week and a home game against the Chiefs next week. Teams are 18-28 ATS off of a close win (3 points or more) as 7+ point road underdogs against a divisional opponent. Meanwhile, non-divisional road underdogs are 80-111 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional home favorites.
That being said, the biggest difference is just how tough of a place New Orleans is to play for a road team, particularly a young Buffalo team that doesn’t have experience going to a place like New Orleans, a non-conference foe. The Saints have not just won, but also covered their last 12 home games under Sean Payton, all 9 (including a playoff game) in 2011 and the first 3 of the season. They’re also 18-8 ATS since 2008 off of a loss. Two weeks removed from that killer loss in New England, they should be completely focused to blow out the Bills at home. This is a big line, but the Saints definitely seem like the right side.
New Orleans Saints 34 Buffalo Bills 13
Pick against spread: New Orleans -12
Confidence: Medium
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Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#24)
Last week: 27 (+3)
Record: 3-4
The Bills may just be 3-4, but they’ve been pretty decent this season. They’ve had a tough schedule, with each of their opponents being 3-4 or better at this point. They’ve been underdogs in all 7 games and they have covered 5 of 7 spreads. The only game they’ve lost by more than a touchdown came in Cleveland after a pick six by backup Jeff Tuel. They beat a pair of top-15 teams on these Power Rankings in Buffalo (Baltimore, Carolina) and almost beat New England and Cincinnati. Their defense has been strong, allowing opponents to move the chains at just a 71% rate and they’ll only get better with Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd healthy. Offensively, they are actually one of two teams to have scored 20 points or more in every game, along with Denver. Thaddeus Lewis isn’t great, but he can do enough for the Bills to win a few games going forward. Unfortunately, it’ll only serve to hurt their draft position and not for them to make the playoffs.
Week 7 Studs
ROLB Mario Williams
LOLB Jerry Hughes
DT Marcell Dareus
CB Nickell Robey
Week 7 Duds
RG Kraig Urbik
C Eric Wood
FS Jim Leonhard
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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (3-2)
The Bills are very underrated because of a tough defense. Their defense is allowing opponents to move the chains on 72% of opportunities thanks to very strong front 7 play from guys like Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams, Mario Williams, and Kiko Alonso. They are doing this without their top two defensive backs Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd playing a full set of snaps yet. Fortunately, they returned to limited action last week and seem set to play a full set of snaps this week, which will make their defense even tougher. As long as they can get at least passable quarterback play from Thaddeus Lewis, who played well in his debut last week, they have a very good chance to keep this game within the 7.5 point spread.
The Bills are just 2-4 on the season, but consider that they haven’t been favored in any of their first 6 games. They’ve faced a very tough schedule and yet they’ve lost just once by more than a touchdown and that was on a late pick six by Jeff Tuel against the Browns. They’ve been underdogs in all 4 of their home games, covering all 4 times, with upset wins over Baltimore and Carolina and near wins against the Bengals and Patriots. Those are all quality opponents. They’ve yet to cover on the road in 2 opportunities, but they hung tough with the Jets and Browns.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, remain overrated. They are 3-2, but just 1 of their wins came by more than 4 points. They are actually getting outscored on the season. When you look at how they are moving the chains, as opposed to how their opponents are, it’s even worse. Offensively, they are moving the chains at just a 71% rate. Ryan Tannehill is improved, but an offensive line that is on pace to set the NFL record for sacks allowed makes it tough to maintain consistent drives. The Bills’ tough front 4 will give them all sorts of trouble. Defensively, their retooled stop unit isn’t doing its job, allowing opponents to move the chains on 78% of opportunities. That -7% differential is 28th in the NFL, worse than Buffalo, who, has I mentioned, has a great defense. This 7.5 point spread is ridiculous.
The Dolphins are also in a bad spot with the Patriots on deck. Since 2002, teams are a ridiculous 18-48 ATS as divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs. I really like the underrated Bills’ chances to keep this within a touchdown against a distracted and overrated Dolphins team. The only reason the Bills are not a bigger play is because they will be double digit underdogs in New Orleans next week and teams are 31-64 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. There’s just too much to ignore though.
Miami Dolphins 17 Buffalo Bills 16
Pick against spread: Buffalo +7.5
Confidence: High
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