Bills

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins

Buffalo Bills (5-9) at Miami Dolphins (6-8)

The Bills got blown out last week, losing 50-17 “at home” in Toronto to the Seahawks. As a result, they rank 28th in points per drive at -0.58. The Dolphins, on the other hand, rank 17th at -0.04. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (average amount of drives per team per game) and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Miami should be favored here by 8.5, rather than the 4.5 they actually are.

However, DVOA refutes this. I like to use DVOA to determine whether or not that net points per drive based figure is valid because it takes into account strength of schedule and things like that. Miami ranks 18th, while Buffalo ranks 22nd, which is a much smaller gap. That gap is even smaller still in weighted DVOA, which weights more recent games more heavily, as Buffalo ranks 22nd and Miami ranks 20th.

This is because, huge loss last week aside, the Bills have been playing some decent football lately compared to the Dolphins. Last week’s loss was actually their first of 12+ since week 5. Since then, they won in Arizona, lost by 1 at home to Tennessee, lost by 12 in Houston, lost by 6 in New England, beat Miami, lost by 7 in Indianapolis, beat Jacksonville, and then lost by 3 to a decent St. Louis team, before last week’s blowout loss.

Blowout losses week 1, week 4, and 5, plus last week’s really damage their net points per drive, but 3 of them were a while ago and I think last week’s blowout loss can be blamed on the fact that they don’t seem to get up for Toronto games. I was worried about the game being in Toronto when I picked the Bills last week (+6) and made it a smaller play for that reason. In hindsight, I should have laid off it completely, but it didn’t appear to be a true neutral site because it’s so close to Buffalo. Plus, Buffalo’s mediocre 1-2 record there didn’t alarm me because this is a generally a mediocre team anyway.

However, after that blowout loss and the subsequent comments by Bills center Eric Wood, I think I’ll lay off the Bills in Toronto in the future if they ever play there again. Wood called the game a “joke,” said that “nobody wants to play there” and hopes they “don’t renew it.” Wood stood by those comments later in the week, saying “It kind of ticked me off. The way I look at it was, last week we were still in the hunt, and we’ve got a team traveling from the West Coast and we make them real comfortable. They get on a plane to play in Toronto, in a dome, without much crowd noise. You provide comfort that shouldn’t happen when you travel to Buffalo. You should have a cold, uncomfortable feeling when people come in. That’s our advantage. We go up in that dome and we let them feel really comfortable.”

Given that, I don’t put a ton of stock into that game and even still, the difference between these two teams’ weighted DVOA is negligible so that 8.5 point figure seems to be invalid. We’re not getting any line value with either side. However, Buffalo is in the much better spot this week. Teams tend to bounce back well off of a blowout losses like that. Teams are 63-33 ATS since 2002 off a 31+ point loss. Just look at Arizona last week after Seattle blew them out. Buffalo is more talented than them.

Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and I think that will be the case this week. They’re certainly undervalued as the line has shifted from -3.5 to -4.5 in the past week (more significant than you think because 4 is a key number) and still the public is on Miami. I love fading the public because they always lose money in the long run.

That’s not the only good spot the Bills are in, however. The Dolphins have a much bigger game next week in New England, while the Bills close out with a home contest against the New York McElroys. The Dolphins won’t be as focused as the Bills, especially with the Bills coming off that awful loss. Since 2000, the Dolphins are 16-26 ATS before playing their archrival the New England Patriots. Furthermore, since 2002, divisional home favorites are a ridiculous 15-48 ATS before being divisional dogs.

Going off that, teams are 43-85 ATS since 2002 before being double digit divisional dogs, including 7-21 ATS as favorites and 1-7 ATS as divisional home favorites before being double digit divisional dogs. If we go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size, that trend is 9-18 ATS. On top of that, because the Bills will be favorites next week, they are dogs before being favorites, a spot teams are 108-67 ATS in since 2011, including 118-61 ATS since 2008 as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs.

Combining the last few trends, divisional home favorites are 4-27 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road dogs when their opponent will next be favorites. Look at Indianapolis’ near loss to the Colts a couple weeks back. They were in this exact same spot and barely beat the lowly Titans. If the Titans can almost beat the Colts, the Bills can definitely beat the Dolphins here.

One last note, the Dolphins have not been a good front running team over the last decade. I know they’ve had several coaching staffs and quarterbacks, but one thing always seems to remain the same, they struggle at home, especially as favorites and do well on the road, especially as dogs. Since 2004, they are 23-46 ATS at home, including 8-26 ATS as home favorites. This year, while they’ve covered 3 out of the 4 times as home dogs, they are just 1-2 ATS as home favorites. It might be different with a new coaching staff and quarterback, though there’s no evidence either way yet, but it’s worth noting and it’s not the biggest reason why I love the Bills this week. There are plenty of reasons and this is my pick of the week, as long as we’re getting 4 or more points with the Bills.

Public lean: Miami (60% range)

Sharps lean: BUF 12 MIA 2

Final thoughts: Sharps are all over the place this week, but it’s good to see that one of their few heavy leans is on the Bills, my pick of the week.

Buffalo Bills 20 Miami Dolphins 16 Upset Pick +185

Pick against spread: Buffalo +4.5 (-110) 5 units

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Buffalo Bills: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Bills

Last week: 23 (+0)

Record: 5-9

Net points per drive: -0.58 (28th)

DVOA: -10.0% (22nd)

Weighted DVOA: -7.8% (22nd)

The Bills have two divisional games left with equal caliber teams. They beat the Dolphins in Buffalo and now travel to Miami. They lost to the Jets in New York and now host them. Common logic says they should split those two games, which would put them at 6-10. I don’t put too much stock into that Seattle loss as, for whatever reason, they never get up for those stupid Toronto games, but they were playing solid football before that and I think they have a better chance to finish 7-9 than 5-11.

Studs

RB CJ Spiller: Rushed for 103 yards (30 after contact) and a touchdown on 17 attempts, 5 broken tackles, caught 3 passes for -2 yards on 5 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 10 pass block snaps

LG Andy Levitre: Didn’t allow a pressure on 48 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 2 attempts

C David Snow: Didn’t allow a pressure on 48 pass block snaps, run blocked for 21 yards on 5 attempts

WR Steve Johnson: Caught 8 passes for 115 yards and a touchdown on 12 attempts on 43 pass snaps, 4.1 YAC per catch, 1 drop

FS Jairus Byrd: Allowed 1 catch for -3 yards on 1 attempt, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

SS George Wilson: Allowed 1 catch for 14 yards on 1 attempt, 7 solo tackles, 3 assists, 4 stops

LE Mario Williams: 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 25 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

Duds

LT Cordy Glenn: Allowed 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 48 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 25 yards on 3 attempts

WR TJ Graham: Caught 3 passes for 32 yards on 8 attempts on 46 pass snaps, 3.3 YAC per catch, 4 drops

WR Brad Smith: Caught 3 passes for 26 yards on 4 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 2.3 YAC per catch

RE Kyle Moore: Did not record a pressure on 20 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

CB Ron Brooks: 2 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles, allowed 1 catch for 4 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts

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Buffalo Bills extend G Kraig Urbik

stevenlourie Bills, News

Not a lot of people know who Kraig Urbik is, but he’s a starting right guard for the Buffalo Bills and he’s actually quite good. A 2 year starter, Urbik graded out as ProFootballFocus 18th ranked guard in 8 starts in 2011 and ranks 24th this season in 11 starts, making him an above average player at that position. He’s also got some versatility to play center, where he made 5 starts last season, though his better position is right guard. He’s a better pass protector than run blocker and actually allowed just 3 quarterback hurries in his 13 combined starts in 2011. This year, he’s allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 7 quarterback hurries in 11 starts and he’s improved as a run blocker.

He’s had some minor injuries, but this really just seems to be an underrated player getting locked up for a very reasonable deal, 4 years 15 million. With him heading into free agency this offseason, the Bills were smart to lock him up right now, before he could hit free agency, but after the 2009 3rd rounder could prove he was more than a one year wonder. The Bills may now attempt to focus on locking up left guard Andy Levitre for the future before he hits free agency this offseason.

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Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bills, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (8-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-8)

The Seahawks have the biggest home/road disparity over the last few years. They are 23-43 ATS on the road and 46-20 ATS at home since 2005. This year, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home, including 3-0 SU as home dogs, but on the road they are 3-4 ATS. That might not sound bad, until we take a closer look.

Two of those covers were in their 2nd straight road game and teams generally cover as road dogs off a road loss. The Seahawks are an even worse 16-31 ATS on the road directly after a home game since 2005, a situation they’re in this week. The other cover was a 7 point loss in San Francisco as 7.5 point dogs, which should have been a 9 point loss and non-cover, but Jim Harbaugh strangely declined a safety. They still struggled mightily offensively, scoring just 6 points and it was on a Thursday Night, when weird stuff happens.

The point remains, the Seahawks are not a good road team. They are 1-3 ATS on the road off a home game this year, with that one cover being the San Francisco game and more importantly, they are 0-3 ATS and SU as road favorites this year. Since 2005, they are 6-12 ATS as road favorites. Russell Wilson completes 61.3% of his passes for an average of 8.7 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 1 interception at home, but 64.1% for an average of 6.8 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on the road.

At first glance, we are getting line value with Seattle. The Seahawks rank 5th in net points per drive at 0.61, while the Bills rank 26th at -0.41. If you take the difference and add multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game) and add 2.5 points to Buffalo’s side for home field, you get that Seattle should be favorites of 8.5.

That holds up somewhat to DVOA, as Seattle rank 2nd in both regular and weighted and Buffalo ranks 21st in regular and 17th in weighted (more on that later). Both teams are noticeably better in DVOA than net points per drive, though Buffalo slightly more so. As well as that, Seattle’s consistent road struggles need to be taken into account. On the road, they get outscored by 6 points per game and at home they outscore teams by 7 points per game over the past 7 years. Instead of using 2.5 for home field, we should use 6.5. If we do that, the real line is at -4.5 and that doesn’t take into account that Buffalo is playing solid football right now and has a decent weighted DVOA.

Since the bye, they lost by 12 against Houston in Houston, but should have covered the 10.5 point spread if not for a missed easy field goal. The next week, they lost by 6 in New England as 11 point dogs and were actually driving for a potential game winning score late. They then won against Miami at home and lost by a special teams touchdown in Indianapolis. They followed that up by blowing out the Jaguars and losing to an also underrated Rams team at home in a game they led most of the way.

Ever since Mario Williams had that minor wrist surgery during the bye, he’s been playing so much better and they’ve consequently held 5 of their last 6 opponents under 21. As a result, they have been competitive in all 6 games. Seattle, meanwhile, is without stud cornerback Brandon Browner with a suspension. They obviously didn’t miss him against Arizona because their quarterbacks are so terrible, but Ryan Fitzpatrick can take advantage of holes in a secondary if there are some. The line doesn’t take that into account, I believe.

The Seahawks are also potentially in a bad spot as teams are 33-63 ATS as non-conference favorites before being divisional dogs since 2002, including 2-9 ATS as road non-conference favorites before being home divisional dogs. If we go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size, that trend is 3-17 ATS. The Panthers lost in Kansas City in this spot a few weeks ago. The early line for next week has the Seahawks as 1 point home dogs for the 49ers next week, which would count. They may end up being favorites when all is said and done, but you can’t deny that they might overlook “crappy,” unfamiliar, non-conference Buffalo with that game next on the schedule.

We’re also getting a major overreaction line here as the Seahawks were just -3 a week ago and now they’re -6. I’m not surprised they blew out the Cardinals at home. They’re a good home team. Did we forget they lost in Miami two weeks ago despite having a 22-3 ATS trend on their side (road favorites off a bye)? This has given us line value and, in spite of this, the public is pounding Seattle and the public always loses money in the long run. On top of that, the Seahawks are in a potentially very bad spot.

It’s worth noting that this game is in Toronto, not Buffalo, where the Bills play one home game per year. That may have an impact, but they’ve never really played noticeably worse there than at home, granted in a small sample size. Toronto isn’t that far away and there’s lots of Bills fans there. I’m also worried about getting in the way of Seattle right now, especially since one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye every season and the only way that happens this year is if Seattle or Chicago win out. However, +6 is just too good to pass up. I’m very grateful for that huge line movement. It gives us enough room that, even if Seattle wins, the Bills could very well cover.

Public lean: Seattle (70% range)

Seattle Seahawks 20 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo +6 (-110) 3 units

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Buffalo Bills: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Bills

Last week: 19 (-4)

Record: 5-8

Net points per drive: -0.41 (26th)

DVOA: -6.5% (21st)

Weighted DVOA: -2.0% (17th)

Buffalo has two divisional games against comparable teams, one in Miami, who they already beat, and one at home for the Jets, who they already lost to. I say they split those 2 and the Seattle game is the wild card one. The Seahawks have fallen flat in several games against inferior teams on the road this season, but they might be playing too well right now for the Bills to win in Toronto, where they will play their annual game this week.

Studs

CB Leodis McKelvin: Allowed 4 catches for 25 yards on 7 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 quarterback hit on 1 blitz, 4 punt returns for 44 yards, 2 kickoff returns for 57 yards

SS George Wilson: Allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 1 attempt, 2 pass deflections, 5 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 quarterback hit on 2 blitzes

DT Kyle Williams: 4 quarterback hurries on 32 pass block snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

LT Cordy Glenn: Allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 2 attempts

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St. Louis Rams at Buffalo Bills: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bills, Rams

St. Louis Rams (5-6-1) at Buffalo Bills (5-7)

This is a matchup of two teams that are below .500, but actually playing good football over the last few weeks. Since the bye, the Bills have played the Texans and Patriots close on the road, beaten Miami, lost in Indianapolis by only a special teams touchdown, and blew out the Jaguars. The Rams, meanwhile, are 2-1-1 since the bye, with a win and tie against the 49ers, a blowout win over the Cardinals, and only a home loss to the Jets, in which the Jets had the huge trends edge, as a blemish. Why are these teams playing better football? Well, let’s take a look.

Starting with the Bills, Mario Williams had a wrist procedure during the bye and has been playing much better football of late. After recording 4 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback hurries in his first 7 games, he has 5 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 11 quarterback hurries in last 5 games. Left tackle Cordy Glenn also returned from a 3 game absence for that first game after the bye, which has stabilized their offensive line, important because Ryan Fitzpatrick is a much noticeably better quarterback when he’s not pressured, more than most.

Also, cornerback Aaron Williams left with an injury in that Houston game and hasn’t played since. Williams was one of the worst defensive backs in the league before getting hurt, so his absence has really been addition by subtraction. As for the Rams, they’ve also gotten healthier. Rodger Saffold returned at left tackle 4 weeks ago, not so coincidentally when their play improved, and Scott Wells returned at center 2 weeks ago, which also helped things.

I think the Rams are more likely to continue playing well than the Bills for several reasons. For one, center Eric Wood is out for the Bills, which really hurts their offensive line. Given Fitzpatrick’s reliance on his offensive line, it’s not surprise this offense went in the tank last season when Wood got hurt. Aaron Williams is also expected to return for the Bills, which probably isn’t a good thing. As for the Rams, Danny Amendola is expected to see the most action he’s seen in 2 weeks this week, which gives Sam Bradford by far his favorite target back. Chris Givens stepped up in his absence as well and if he can continue that, that would give Bradford two weapons to work with downfield, which is sadly a new record for him.

The trends also favor the Rams. Teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 114-57 ATS since 2008 when the opponent will next be dogs and 34-14 ATS when all 3 games will be non-divisional (current game, next game, opponent’s next game). The Rams host the Vikings next week and will be favored and the Bills host the Seahawks and will be dogs; all 3 of those games are obviously non-divisional. Going off that, non-conference favorites are 19-36 before being non-conference dogs since 2002. We’re not really get any line value (real line is Buffalo -3.5, according to net points per play, but the Rams hold a slight edge in DVOA) or chance to fade the public (equal action), but I like the Rams for a small play.

Public lean: Buffalo (50% range)

Sharps lean: STL 12 BUF 8

Final thoughts: Amendola is out for the Rams, but there is no change.

St. Louis Rams 17 Buffalo Bills 16 Upset Pick +140

Pick against spread: St. Louis +3 (-110) 2 units

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Buffalo Bills: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Bills

Last week: 19 (+4)

Record: 5-7

Net points per drive: -0.42 (24th)

DVOA: -7.1% (22nd)

Weighted DVOA: -1.3% (17th)

Studs

LT Cordy Glenn: Did not allow a pressured on 21 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 2 attempts

LG Andy Levitre: Did not allow a pressured on 21 pass block snaps, run blocked for 32 yards on 4 attempts

FS Jairus Byrd: Did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 1 interception, 2 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 1 blitz

DT Alex Harrington: 2 sacks on 14 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

LE Mario Williams: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 44 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle, 2 stops

DT Kyle Williams: 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 42 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RT Chris Hairston: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 19 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 11 yards on 2 attempts

C Eric Wood: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 21 pass block snaps, run blocked for 59 yards on 15 attempts

LOLB Bryan Scott: Allowed 4 catches for 63 yards on 7 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bills, Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) at Buffalo Bills (4-7)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finished with 6 wins or fewer are 23-64 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 4 times all last season, going 0-4 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland earlier this year (they didn’t cover), but there was at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

I used this trend with the Raiders’ game a few weeks ago, -6 against Jacksonville. Oakland sat at 1-4 and looked unlikely to finish 7-9 or better and now at 3-8, it appears that was true. The Raiders failed to cover, needing a big comeback to win in overtime against these same Jaguars. Now the Jaguars go to Buffalo and will once again be 6 point dogs. Buffalo stands at 4-7 and is a prime candidate for the trend. If you look at their schedule (vs. Jacksonville, vs. St. Louis, vs. Seattle, @ Miami, vs. NY Jets), it’s possible they could win 7 games or more, but unlikely given the way they’ve been playing (more on that later).

Speaking of the Jaguars, I did mention that these were those same Jaguars. Well, that’s not necessarily true. Key members of their secondary, Dwight Lowery and Rashean Mathis, have returned after missing several games with injury. Lowery didn’t play against Oakland and Mathis left mid game. Also, Chad Henne is now at quarterback for the Jaguars. I know Henne did play in that Oakland game, but he played poorly because he was unprepared. Now as the full time starter with Gabbert out, Henne has the Jaguars playing much better football. He’s inconsistent, but even at his worst, he’s not a whole lot worse than Gabbert.

That should be taken into account when calculating real line, but even if it isn’t, we’re getting line value with the Jaguars. Buffalo ranks 28th in net points per drive at -0.62 (why I don’t think they’ll finish 7-9 or better) and Jacksonville ranks 29th in net points per drive at -0.73, with net points per drive meaning points per drive minus points per drive allowed (points per drive being offensive points divided by total drives).

If you take the difference and multiple by 11 (the average number of drives per game) and add 3 point for home field, you get a real line of about Buffalo -4, before even taking into account Jacksonville’s improved injury situation and the quarterback upgrade. Buffalo does rank 23rd in DVOA, to Jacksonville’s 30th (DVOA is based on net points per drive, but takes into account strength of schedule and things like special teams), but I still like getting 6 points with an improved Jacksonville team. I think there’s still some line value, not even taking into account the six and six trend. Besides, while Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS at home, they are somehow 5-0 ATS on the road this year.

There are a few things shaky about this pick, what if Buffalo finishes 3-2 over their past 5 games? What if the difference in DVOA is significant? What if Henne has a stinker? Jacksonville is also in a bad spot as non-divisional road dogs are 30-49 ATS off a win as divisional home dogs and they win as home dogs against Tennessee last week. There’s also the fact that Jacksonville is a publicly backed dog. There’s also, very interestingly, the fact that teams that are exactly 4-7 are 6-2 ATS as 6+ favorites since 1989 (though only 4 of those 8 finished 6-10 or worse and it’s a small sample size). Still, I like the six and six potential and the line value potential so it’s a significant play on Jacksonville.

Public lean: Buffalo (60% range)

Sharps lean: JAX 10 BUF 8

Final update: No change.

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Buffalo Bills 17 Upset Pick +210

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +6 (-110) 3 units

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Buffalo Bills: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Bills

Last week: 21 (-2)

Record: 4-7

Net points per drive: -0.62 (28th)

DVOA: -9.8% (22nd)

Weighted DVOA: -8.9% (23rd)

Tier 6: Not going to make the playoffs, but they can pull some upsets down the stretch

Studs

LG Andy Levitre: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 36 yards on 2 attempts

WR Steve Johnson: Caught 6 passes for 106 yards on 14 attempts on 37 pass snaps, 8.7 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to

LOLB Nick Barnett: 5 solo tackles, 3 stops, did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection

LE Mario Williams: 3 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 40 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle, 4 stops

DT Kyle Williams: 2 quarterback hits on 1 quarterback hurry on 35 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 2 assist, 1 stop

DT Marcell Dareus: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 5 stops

Duds

LT Cordy Glenn: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback hurries on 39 pass block snaps

RT Chris Hairston: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for -3 yards on 1 attempt

WR Donald Jones: Caught 4 passes for 19 yards on 6 attempts on 35 pass snaps, 5.5 YAC per catch, 2 drops

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Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bills, Colts

Buffalo Bills (4-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4)

I’ve called Indianapolis a perpetually underrated team all year. Starting week 2, they were home dogs for Minnesota, 3 point home favorites for Jacksonville, touchdown home dogs for the Packers, 3.5 point road dogs against the Jets, 1 point home favorites for Cleveland, 3.5 point road dogs against the Titans, home dogs for Miami, 3.5 road favorites for Jacksonville, and then as a 6-3 team they were 9 point dogs in New England last week.

They’ve had some games in there where they didn’t cover, but given how well they’ve played, those lines look pretty ridiculous and not just in hindsight. The only time in there I didn’t bet on them was as 3.5 point road favorites in Jacksonville (what seemed like a reasonable line) and they have covered 6 out of 9 lines, including 4 straight (all wins) before running into red hot New England last week.

This week, they continue to be underrated as they are just 3 point home favorites for the Bills, which suggests that these two teams are equal (3 points for home field advantage). I just don’t think that’s true. Yes, they were blown out last week, but before that they were a hot young team and the blowout loss could be a good sign for them this year. Teams are 37-19 ATS since 2002 off a loss of 35 or more as dogs. Those teams tend to be angry, overlooked, and undervalued.

There really hasn’t been much of a line movement despite that huge loss, for some reason, as it’s gone from -4 to -3 (though 3 is a very, very key number), but they’re still undervalued. The fact remains that they were undervalued a week ago as well. It’s ridiculous that this line was -4 a week ago. As you can imagine, we are getting some line value with the Colts. The rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Indianapolis -8 and the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Indianapolis -2.5. When you average those out, you get a line significantly higher than this -3.

That being said, it’s not going to be a big play on Indianapolis because they’re actually in a really bad spot, blowout loss last week aside. Since 2008, teams are 58-81 ATS as favorites after a loss as dogs before being dogs, the so called sandwich game trend. The Colts obviously lost as dogs last week and now they’re favorites before going to Detroit, where they will be dogs, next week. For what it’s worth, teams coming off a blowout loss of 35 or more are 1-2 ATS in that time period, 10-15 ATS off a loss by 21 or more.

Meanwhile, the Bills are dogs before being favorites as they host the Jaguars next week. Teams are 96-53 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 years. When you combine that trend and the sandwich game trend, you get that teams are 111-56 ATS as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs since 2008, including 34-13 ATS when all 3 games (the current game, your next game, and your opponent’s next game) all are non-divisional. The Bills are also rested off a Thursday game. Teams are 116-96 ATS on a Sunday coming off a Thursday game.

This game simply means different things to these two teams. For the Bills, this is a potential statement game with no distractions on the horizon. For the Colts, this is a chance to get an “easy” win to get things right before facing a tough opponent again next week. The fact that the Colts are coming off a blowout loss might make it less likely they overlook these Bills (not to mention all the ChuckStrong stuff) and they are definitely undervalued by this line, but it’s only a play small on the Colts, especially with the public all over them. The odds makers have had a rough 3 week stretch and seem due for a big week.

Public lean: Indianapolis (70% range)

Sharps lean: BUF 8 IND 7

Final update: No change.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Buffalo Bills 20

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -3 (-110) 2 units

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