Bills

Buffalo Bills: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Bills

Last week: 25 (+4)

Record: 4-6

It’s looking more and more likely that Ryan Fitzpatrick will not be back as the starter next season, owed 7.25 million non-guaranteed. GM Buddy Nix is known for being an open book when it comes to his offseason plans and his draft plans in particular. In 2010, he mentioned several times how much he wants one of those really speedy backs. Then with the 9th pick overall, he took CJ Spiller. Last year, he went on and on about the need to add cornerbacks and then drafted 2, including Stephon Gilmore 10th overall.

This year, he’s hinted on several occasions that he’d like to draft a quarterback early in the draft. Fir he said this: “Listen, we have said from day one, that we want to draft a good young quarterback. I don’t want to leave here without a franchise guy for the future in place. I have not said that before but I’m saying it now because it’s fact. Then he said this: “Let me be as honest as I can. I think we really need to address it [the quarterback [position] this year. The thing we can’t do is you can’t create one. You can’t go out, thinking ‘I’ve got to make this guy a player.’ If you do, then you’re going to be in a bigger mess.”

Most recently, he said this about rookie quarterbacks: “You draft them to play them now. You don’t draft them to let them sit. They’re thrown in there, and they’re responding extremely well right now.” If he’s to be believed, and I think he is, it looks like Fitzpatrick will not be brought back in 2013 and that he’ll be replaced by a rookie who will start immediately. It remains to be seen if Head Coach Chan Gailey, one of Fitzpatrick’s biggest backers and the owner of a 14-28 record in 2 ½ season as Head Coach of the Bills, will go with him. I’d say it’s more likely than not that he does.

Buffalo Bills

Studs

RB CJ Spiller: Rushed for 91 yards (65 after contact) on 22 attempts, 8 broken tackles, caught 3 passes for 39 yards on 4 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 10 pass block snaps

LG Andy Levitre: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts

C Eric Wood: Did not allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 37 yards on 6 attempts

CB Leodis McKelvin: Allowed 2 catches for 21 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 penalty, returned 3 kickoffs for 75 yards, returned 3 punts for 98 yards and a touchdown

FS Jairus Byrd: Allowed 1 catch for 2 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

P Shawn Powell: 7 punts for 317 yards, 5 inside 20, 3 returns for 31 yards, 40.9 net yards per punt

Duds

WR Donald Jones: Caught 2 passes for 11 yards on 4 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

WR TJ Graham: Caught 2 passes for 5 yards on 2 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

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Buffalo Bills: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Bills

Last week: 25 (+0)

Record: 3-6

CJ Spiller is having a ridiculous year. He leads all eligible running backs in YPC by a yard and a half over Adrian Peterson, who is 2nd. Spiller is at 7.3. Peterson is at 5.8 He’s at 4.3 yards per carry after contact, which is about an average total yards per carry. Doug Martin is next at 3.7. He ranks 14th in the league in rushing yards despite having just 87 carries. No one else who has fewer than 100 carries ranks higher than 25th. If you add in his receiving yardage, he has 929 yards on just 115 touches. They have to find someone to get him the ball more. Fred Jackson is out this week, so expect a huge game from him. It’s a shame the Bills two best offensive players play the same position. That would be the Bills’ luck.

Studs

RB CJ Spiller: Rushed for 70 yards (35 after contact) on 9 attempts, 2 broken tackles, allowed 4 catches for 61 yards on 4 attempts

LG Andy Levitre: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 34 yards on 4 attempts

RG Kraig Urbik: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 2 attempts, 1 penalty

RT Chris Hairston: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 1 attempts, 1 penalty

CB Leodis McKelvin: Allowed 3 catches for 17 yards on 6 attempts, 5 solo tackles

DT Kyle Williams: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 2 stops

DT Marcell Dareus: 1 sack on 31 pass rush snaps, 2 batted passes, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop

RE Mario Williams: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 36 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

C Eric Wood: Allowed 2 sacks on 49 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 24 yards on 7 attempts

LOLB Nick Barnett: Allowed 8 catches for 102 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins

Miami Dolphins (4-5) at Buffalo Bills (3-6)

Things have really gone south for the Dolphins in the past few weeks. How south? 2 weeks ago they were in a playoff spot in the AFC and road favorites going to Indianapolis. Two weeks later, they are 4-5 and are dogs in Buffalo. Not only that, but the public is pounding the home favorite. Buffalo is not only infrequently favored, but they’re also incredibly infrequently publicly backed as favorites.

So what went wrong for the Dolphins? Well, first they lost in Indianapolis to the Colts by 3. That’s not embarrassing at all. The Colts stand at 6-3 and even hanging within a field goal of them in Indianapolis is pretty impressive. However, last week, the Dolphins lost at home to the Titans in embarrassing fashion, 37-3. That’s shifted this line from Miami being road favorites to Buffalo being favored.

However, that loss wasn’t as embarrassing as it looked. They got killed in the turnover battle 4-0, setting up Tennessee in great field position, giving them the ability to score 37 points despite just 9 completions and fewer than 300 yards of offense. That being said, this line does hold up to the test of the yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential metrics. The former says this line should be Buffalo -1.5 and the latter says this line should be Buffalo -1, which is right around where this line actually is.

What last week’s fluky loss does do is put Miami in a great spot to cover this week. Teams are 62-31 ATS since 2002 coming off a loss of 31+ or more. Teams tend to be embarrassed and undervalued in this spot and the Dolphins are at least one of those things. They may also be undervalued. Teams are 21-11 ATS since 1989 coming off a game in which they allowed 32 or more points and fewer than 10 completions. This makes sense as those tend to be fluky losses. They may also be dogs before being favorites as they host Seattle (a notoriously bad road team) next week. Teams are 92-52 ATS in this spot in the last 2 seasons.

Buffalo is also in a bunch of bad spots, starting with the classic sandwich game spot. Teams are 57-82 ATS since 2008 as favorites off a loss as dogs and before being dogs. This works for one of two reasons depending on the type of team favored. For good teams, the sandwich game gives them an opportunity for an “easy” win to get on the right page after a tough loss before playing another tough team. They tend to overlook their opponents. For bad teams, well they shouldn’t be favored. Buffalo is clearly one of the latter teams.

They’re also in a bad spot after coming so close to knocking off divisional rival New England as huge dogs last week. Favorites are 22-30 ATS off a loss as divisional double digit dogs since 1989 and divisional favorites after a loss as divisional dogs are 96-112 ATS since 1989. Neither of those trends is particularly strong, but if you combine them, you get that teams are 5-12 ATS as divisional favorites off a loss as double digit divisional dogs. Meanwhile, favorites on Thursday Nights are 0-4 ATS off a divisional loss as dogs.

I like Miami for a significant play. Instead of putting 3 units on the spread and 1 on the money line, I’m putting all 4 on the money line. Since 1989, there have been 413 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 413 teams, only 7 of those teams won by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. It’s not worth the extra 15 cents for something that historically will only hurt me about 1.7% of the time. I also like the under, as usual, on Thursday Night. The under is 71-53 on Thursday Night since 1989.

Public lean: Buffalo (70% range)

Miami Dolphins 23 Buffalo Bills 10 Upset Pick +105 4 units

Pick against spread: Miami +1.5 (-110) 0 units

Total: Under 45 (-110) 1 unit

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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bills, Patriots

Buffalo Bills (3-5) at New England Patriots (5-3)

Poor Bills. Last week they had to face the Texans and now they have to face the Patriots. Well, maybe it’s not so bad. While teams struggle as double digit dogs before being double digit dogs, 22-42 ATS since 2002, a situation the Bills lost in last week, it’s the exact opposite for double digit dogs after being double digit dogs, as long as they lost the week before. Teams in that spot are 36-22 ATS since 2002. Even better, the Bills are in their 2nd straight road game off a loss. Teams are 78-47 ATS since 2008 in that spot.

Meanwhile, as frequently as the Patriots have blown teams out in the last few years, they’ve struggled as favorites of more than a touchdown. They always seem to play down to the level of the competition as big favorites, going 5-10 ATS. That’s pretty remarkable considering how much of a covering machine they’ve been since 2010. In all other situations, they’re a ridiculous 21-8 ATS. We’ve already seen that twice this year as they lost at home to the Cardinals and needed overtime to beat the Jets. We could see a 3rd instance of that here, though double digit home favorites are 15-7 ATS off a bye since 2002.

We are getting a little bit of line value with the Patriots, but barely. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of -7 and the rate of sustaining drives method gives us a real line of -17. If you average those out, you get a line of -12 and this line is -11. However, it’s just 1 point and given that both metrics are pretty far in each direction, it’s hard to say there’s noteworthy line value for either team.

Finally, we’re getting an opportunity to fade a heavy public lean. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back. It’s a significant play on the Bills.

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Sharps lean: NE 8 BUF 2

Final update: No change.

New England Patriots 31 Buffalo Bills 24

Pick against spread: Buffalo +11 (-110) 3 units

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Buffalo Bills: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Bills

Last week: 26 (+1)

Record: 3-6

The Bills actually move up a spot despite a 12 point loss to the Texans because I felt the Titans, who have the league’s worst points differential, were way less impressive (despite their head-to-head win over the Bills) and dropped the Titans 2 spots. The Bills were slightly more competitive with the Texans than the final score would have suggested, but the Texans were probably just sleepwalking with the Chicago game next on schedule. One interesting fact: reserve defensive end Kyle Moore got the first sack against Houston Texans’ left tackle Duane Brown since week 15 of 2010, 28 straight games without allowing a sack, including playoffs, almost 2 full seasons.

Studs

RT Chris Hairston: Didn’t allow a pressure on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

FS Jairus Byrd: 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, was not thrown on

Duds

LT Cordy Glenn: Allowed 3 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 44 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

RG Kraig Urbik: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 22 yards on 1 attempt

WR TJ Graham: Allowed 2 catches for 4 yards on 3 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC, 1 drop

CB Aaron Williams: Allowed 4 catches for 99 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist

CB Stephon Gilmore: Allowed 4 catches for 49 yards on 6 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

RE Chris Kelsay: Did not record a pressure on 11 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

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Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bills, Texans

Buffalo Bills (3-4) at Houston Texans (6-1)

Despite Houston’s embarrassing loss to the Packers on Sunday Night a few weeks ago, they still rank 2nd in the league in points differential at +88. Among teams that have already had their bye, they rank 1st. Only New England, who is on bye this week and who has played an extra game, is better than them in that statistic.

Of their 6 wins, 4 have come by 20 or more. You can say they got blown out by the only good team they’ve faced (unless you count Denver before they really got going), but the Bills aren’t a good team either. The Jaguars have blown out Miami, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Baltimore. They can blow out Buffalo too. Buffalo, meanwhile, is -56 on the season, despite their 3-4 record, 4th worst in the NFL. This is because 3 of their 4 losses have come by 20 or more.

Houston is also in a good spot as double digit favorites after a bye. Teams are 14-7 ATS in this spot. Good teams tend to be extra focused off of a bye, though it’s worth noting that double digit favorites are 45-61 ATS before being dogs (Houston plays in Chicago next week). After a bye, those teams are 2-5 since 2002. If we go back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, they’re 2-8 ATS, which still isn’t much of a sample size. These two trends should cancel out.

Buffalo, however, is in a bad spot as double digit road dogs before being double digit road dogs. They go to New England next week. Teams are 22-41 ATS in this spot since 2002. In general, teams are 57-95 ATS before being double digit dogs since 2008, including 25-37 ATS before being double digit divisional dogs, 42-79 ATS since 2002. Houston may be caught looking forward to Chicago, but Buffalo might be caught looking forward to a big divisional revenge game with New England. That’s even more dangerous for a bad team.

We are also getting line value with Houston, despite the big line. Houston ranks 3rd and 2nd in yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential respectively, while Buffalo ranks 29th and 30th respectively. The rate of yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Houston -12.5 sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Houston -17.5. It’s rare to get line value with such a heavy favorite. It’s not a big play at all because I hate laying this many points, especially with a heavy public lean, but this should be a blowout so Houston should be the right side.

Public lean: Houston (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Sharps lean: BUF 9 HOU 4

Final update: No change.

Houston Texans 34 Buffalo Bills 13

Pick against spread: Houston -10.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bills, Titans

Tennessee Titans (2-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-3)

These two teams are actually very, very similar. Tennessee ranks 29th in yards per play differential and Buffalo ranks 30th. Buffalo also ranks 30th in rate of sustaining drives differential, while Tennessee ranks 31st. I picked both teams for big plays last week because, in addition to other reasons, both teams were coming off back to back losses of 21 or more. Teams in that situation are 33-16 ATS since 2002 and are now 35-16 ATS after both pulled off upset victories last week.

However, both teams are now in bad spots because of how they won last week. Both teams won by a field goal late. Tennessee won at home by a field goal as dogs. Teams are 28-50 ATS in that spot since 2002. Buffalo won in overtime on the road as dogs. Teams are 16-31 ATS the following week as favorites since 2002 as Buffalo is indeed favored in this one.

So if these two teams are so similar, why do I like Tennessee? Well, there are 6 reasons. For one, Tennessee is better rested. Teams are 112-92 ATS off Thursday Night Football, which isn’t huge or anything, but it’s notable and it definitely makes sense. A bigger trend is that underdogs before being favorites are 81-43 ATS since the start of last year, including 13-5 ATS off a win as dogs. If you go back to 2008 to get a larger sample size, teams are 38-19 ATS as dogs before being favorites off a win as dogs.

The 3rd reason is that, while these two teams match up similarly statistically, look who these two teams have played. Buffalo has played the Jets, Chiefs, Browns, Patriots, 49ers, and Cardinals, while Tennessee has had to deal with the Patriots, Chargers, Lions, Texans, Vikings, and most recently the Steelers, a much tougher schedule. The 4th reason is that we do have a substantial public lean on Buffalo right now and I love to fade the public, especially on substantial leans. The 5th reason is that teams coming off a victory off of two straight losses by 21 or more, like both of these teams are, are 15-9 ATS as dogs, but 3-5 ATS as favorites the following week.

The final reason is that, we’ll these teams are even, we’re getting a half point more with Buffalo than we should. I know that may sound insignificant, but since 2002, 15.5% of all NFL teams have been decided by a field goal or more. At some places, this line is +3 (+105) and some it’s -3.5 (-120). I recommend paying for the extra half point if you can. It’s valuable and you’ll probably need it with two teams as evenly matched as these. The money line is a good value too.

Public lean: Buffalo (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Sharps lean: TEN 12 BUF 9

Final update: No change

Tennessee Titans 24 Buffalo Bills 23 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: Tennessee +3.5 (-120) 2 units

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Buffalo Bills: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#20)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Bills

Last week: 20 (+0)

Record: 3-3

I take schedule into account with these power rankings, which is why I always have the Bills higher than most of higher than their level of talent. They’ve be fortunate enough to be in the AFC East and play their non-divisional games against the AFC South and the NFC West, as well as Kansas City and Cleveland, who they’ve already played. Of their final 10 games, 8 are against Miami, the Jets, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Seattle, and St. Louis. Only Houston and New England are “tough” opponents. They would make the playoffs if they were even an average team, which is what I thought they were before the season, but they aren’t. They rank 30th in both yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential. Unfortunately for them, all their easy schedule will do is hurt their draft position and keep them from the top-5 pick and potential franchise quarterback they deserve.

Studs

RG Chad Rinehart: Did not allow a pressure on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 21 yards on 6 attempts

RB CJ Spiller: Rushed for 88 yards (60 after contact) and 1 touchdown on 12 carries, 7 broken tackles, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 2 pass block snaps, caught 4 passes for 22 yards on 5 attempts

FS Jairus Byrd: Allowed 1 completion for 9 yards on 1 attempt, 2 interceptions, 5 solo tackles, 2 stops

CB Justin Rogers: Allowed 1 catch for 2 yards on 3 attempts, 2 solo tackle, 1 stop

RE Kyle Moore: 1 quarterback hit and 6 quarterback hurries on 25 pass rush snaps, 1 missed tackle

RE Chris Kelsay: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 24 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops

LE Mario Williams: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 45 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 3 stops

DT Marcell Dareus: 6 quarterback hurries on 39 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick: 18 of 32 for 153 yards, 1 batted pass, 1 spike, 2 drops, 67.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 9 of 37 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 of 7)

WR Donald Jones: Caught 1 pass for 9 yards on 4 attempts on 35 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to

WR TJ Graham: Caught 1 pass for 6 yards on 3 attempts on 34 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

TE Scott Chandler: Caught 1 pass for 4 yards on 3 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 5 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempt

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Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bills, Cardinals

Buffalo Bills (2-3) at Arizona Cardinals (4-1)

Last week, I called the Arizona Cardinals one of the worst 4-0 teams ever. With Kevin Kolb as their quarterback, no offensive line, and no running game, last week’s offensive catastrophe was inevitable and I don’t think it’s the last one. There’s a reason I frequently ranked them lower than their record and picked against them. For as good as their defense is, their offense is equally bad. They actually rank just 28th in the league in yards per play differential, thanks to a last place ranking in yards per play. They’ll still be in the playoff race with a nice head start, but expect this team to finish somewhere around .500 once again this year. In general, I suggest continuing to ride the correction as a bettor.

However, their opponent this week is the Bills, who have looked awfully awful over the past 2 weeks. Since jumping out to a 21-7 lead against New England, they have been outscored by a total of 90-10 by New England and San Francisco, who beat them 45-3 last week. Their defense, which they invested so many resources into this offseason, has allowed 45 or more points in 3 of their 5 contests this year.

I, like many people, expected an improved defense from them thanks to offseason acquisitions of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, as well as the return of defensive tackle Kyle Williams, a defensive player of the year candidate in 2010 before getting hurt last year. However, Williams and Anderson have been huge free agency busts, and the latter is probably done for the year with a knee injury. Meanwhile, their back 7 has been horrendous.

Playing the Cardinals might be exactly what they need though, given the Cardinals’ offensive issues. They allowed just 31 points combined week 2 and week 3 against Kansas City’s and Cleveland’s miserable offenses, so they are capable of shutting teams down if their opponents aren’t very good. Both of those games were easy wins for the Bills, though it’s worth noting that neither team had a defense like Arizona’s.

Buffalo is also missing several offensive lineman, including two week 1 starters and two guys who were supposed to step into the starting lineup for them. Recently signed off the streets, Reggie Wells could be their starting right guard, a huge problem against a tough defensive front like Arizona’s. Ryan Fitzpatrick has always struggled under pressure. A big part of the reason why this team declined last year was injuries to their offensive line.

We are getting some line value with Buffalo. Buffalo ranks just 1 spot below Arizona in yards per play differential, with a difference of .1, which translates to a real line of Arizona -3.5. This line is Arizona -5. It’s not a huge difference at all, but it’s worth noting that before the Bills’ loss to the 49ers, they ranked much better in that category.

They just lost the yards per play battle in San Francisco by 3.5 yards per play, which is pathetic, but if you don’t want to put too much stock into one bad game against a very good opponent, you could actually argue the Bills have a good deal of line value this week since Arizona has been around the bottom of the league in that stat all season. The odds makers seem to be putting a great deal of value into that game as, despite the fact that Arizona imploded offensively last week, this line has actually shifted a point in favor of Arizona since last week. Last week, this line was -4. Still, the public is betting Arizona because of how bad the Bills have looked in the past couple of weeks.

Speaking of how bad the Bills have looked in the past few weeks, teams that lose back-to-back games by 20+ are 33-16 ATS the following week. Those teams tend to be undervalued and desperate. I already covered how the Bills are undervalued, but at 2-3, if they have any hopes of making the playoffs, the Bills need a win here to stop the bleeding against a team that’s vulnerable. Arizona, meanwhile, might be more focused on a trip to Minnesota next week. At 4-1, this isn’t a must win game or anything for them at all. Buffalo is also playing for respect as they’ve currently replaced the Jets as the laughing stock of the league.

The Bills are also in another good spot as road dogs after a loss as road dogs. Teams in this situation are 60-40 ATS since 2008. They’re also dogs before being favorites as they host Tennessee last week. Teams in that situation are 73-48 ATS since 2011, including 20-8 ATS off a loss as a dog. Finally, even if Arizona does win, it probably won’t be by very many.

With the exception of that weird game against Philadelphia, the Cardinals have won every game this season by 3 points or fewer. This is nothing new for them. Last season, all 8 of their wins were by a touchdown or less, including a ridiculous 5 wins by 4 or fewer. Of their 3 wins by more than 4 last year, only Carolina week 1 was decided in regulation. In 2010, 3 of their 5 wins were by 4 or fewer. Since Kurt Warner retired after the 2009 season, this team has won a total of 4 games by more than 4 points in regulation. As a result, they are just 1-3 ATS as favorites of more than a field goal in that time period.

This should be a low scoring, close game so even if Arizona wins, I feel safe getting 5 points. Besides, teams who score 3 or fewer points are just 2-6 ATS the following week since 1989 as favorites of more than a field goal when their opponent is also coming off a game in which they scored 3 or fewer points. This makes complete sense because no team deserves to be laying more than a field goal if they have major offensive issues, no matter who they are playing.

Public lean: Arizona (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Sharps lean: BUF 8 ARI 7

Final update: No change.

Buffalo Bills 16 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +190

Pick against spread: Buffalo +5 (-110) 3 units

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