Bills

Buffalo Bills: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#20)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Bills

Last week: 16 (-4)

Record: 2-3

Remember when the Bills looked like they were going to beat the Patriots and take control of the AFC East. That was fun. Since leading that game 21-7, they have been outscored 90-10 by the Patriots and 49ers. That’s pretty pathetic for anyone, especially for a team that was a popular sleeper coming into the year after all of the resources they put into their defense. That expensive defense ranks among the worst in the league in every category and has given up at least 45 points in 3 of 5 games led by the incredibly disappointing Mario Williams. It’s no surprise why Houston did make much of an effort to re-sign him

The only reason they’re ranked this high is because of their schedule. They face the 3 one dimensional NFC West teams, Arizona, Seattle, and St. Louis, the 2 horrible and the one slightly less horrible AFC South teams, Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Indianapolis, and they have 3 divisional games against the Jets and Dolphins. Only two games, New England and Houston, appear unwinnable the rest of the way, even for a team like Buffalo. Unfortunately, all that easy schedule is likely to do is hurt their draft pick and lessen the chances that some coaches get a much needed firing.

Studs

LG Andy Levitre: Did not allow a pressure on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 3 attempts

Duds

C Eric Wood: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 19 yards on 5 attempts

CB Aaron Williams: Allowed 4 catches for 72 yards and 2 touchdowns on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

DT Marcell Dareus: Did not record a pressure on 24 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles

DT Kyle Williams: 1 quarterback hurry on 23 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles

MLB Kelvin Sheppard: Allowed 1 completion for 4 yards on 2 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes

RE Mark Anderson: Did not record a pressure on 19 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

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Buffalo Bills (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, 49ers, Bills

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-1)

How can the Bills possibly keep up with the 49ers this week? They’ll be completely flat off that divisional loss to the Patriots. That seems to the public opinion because the public is pounding San Francisco. The public is generally wrong, however. That’s why the odds makers are rich. This year has been no different as the public is getting killed, especially on big leans like this one, and sure enough, there are some things that the public seems to be overlooking.

The Bills loss to the Patriots last week does not put them in a bad situation to cover the spread. In fact, it’s the opposite. Teams that blow divisional halftime leads and lose by 14 or more are 20-11 ATS since 1989, including 5-1 ATS after losing by 21 or more. It seems that outplaying the team for a half is more important going forward than blowing the lead.

The Bills did look good in that game for at least 2 and ½ quarters and looked well on their way to victory against a tough very opponent before the Patriots went on a huge run that I’m not sure many defenses could have stopped. Remember, the Bills defense, which they put a lot of resources into this offseason, had allowed 31 points in their previous 2 games and it’s not like the 49ers have a good offense. Furthermore, teams are 23-11 ATS since 1989 as non-divisional dogs of 10+ off a divisional loss of 21 or more. The Bills are also 14-6 ATS in their last 20 instances off a loss to the Patriots.

That being said, I actually do think the public has the right side this week, if only by accident. Buffalo lost two starting offensive linemen last week, both of whom will be out this week. In spite of that and the Bills’ big loss and the 49ers’ big win last week, this line has only shifted 1 point. Those two offensive lineman alone are worth more than 2 points.

They rank 1st in the league in pass blocking efficiency, as they did last year before injury, and that’s so important because Ryan Fitzpatrick really struggles under pressure. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s under pressure accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) was just 53.3% last season, 29th out of 35 eligible quarterbacks. In 2010, his first season as a full-time starter, he ranked 33rd out of 34 players under pressure, by being accurate of 50.0% of his under pressure snaps. He also threw 8 picks to 2 touchdowns under pressure. It’s no coincidence that their once promising season was derailed once injuries hit on their offensive line last year.

Against a tough 49ers defense, missing two offensive linemen, I think we’re going to get bad Ryan Fitzpatrick this week. Besides, teams are 40-22 ATS after a road shutout win and the 49ers are in that situation this week, after shutting out the Jets in New York last week. It’s not a huge play at all because of some of the trends I mentioned working in Buffalo’s favor and because San Francisco doesn’t really have the offense to be comfortable laying 10 points with them, but I think San Francisco is the right side. San Francisco is also my survivor pick of the week for anyone still alive (like, you know, people who haven’t been listening to me).

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Sharps lean: SF 16 BUF 9

The sharps really like San Francisco. I’m going to add a unit. I hate picking big favorites, especially defensive minded ones, but Buffalo could be pretty awful offensively without Cordy Glenn and Kraig Urbik against this brutal San Francisco defense. I’m feeling a blowout.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Buffalo Bills 10 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL)

Pick against spread: San Francisco -9.5 (-110) 2 units

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Buffalo Bills: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Bills

Last week: 15 (-1)

Record: 2-2

The Bills have now allowed 100 points in two divisional matchups. Yikes! The defense isn’t the problem, however. The 48 they allowed to the Jets was largely due to their offense giving the Jets the ball with good field position and then the defense quitting down big late, while the 52 they allowed last week was simply running into the wrong team at the wrong time. The Bills played well in the first half, but very few teams would have been able to stop the Patriots in the 2nd half.

The issue is injuries on the offensive line. This has been the league’s best offensive line in terms of pass blocking efficiency this season, as it was last season before injuries struck. However, now they will be without two starters, Cordy Glenn and Kraig Urbik, for an extended period of time. Fitzpatrick really struggled when his offensive line play declined last season and he’s always been a quarterback who struggles under pressure. The Bills better hope those injuries aren’t too long term.

Studs

C Eric Wood: Did not allow a pressure on 44 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 37 yards on 8 attempts

CB Stephon Gilmore: Allowed 4 catches for 43 yards on 7 attempts, 4 pass deflections, 8 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

FS Jairus Byrd: 3 solo tackles, 6 assist, 1 missed tackle, was not thrown on

DT Kyle Williams: 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick: 22 of 39 for 350 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, 3 drops, 68.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 6 of 44 drop backs (3 sacks, 1 of 3, 1 interception)

RT Erik Pears: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry, 3 penalties, run blocked for 14 yards on 3 attempts

WR Steve Johnson: 2 catches for 23 yards on 10 attempts on 44 pass snaps, 3.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 3 interceptions when thrown to

CB Justin Rogers: Allowed 8 catches for 125 yards on 8 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Nick Barnett: Allowed 6 catches for 83 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 10 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

LE Mario Williams: 3 quarterback hurries on 36 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: Week 4 NFL pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bills, Patriots

New England Patriots (1-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-1)

The Patriots are under .500 for the first time since week 1 2003, snapping an NFL record for consecutive weeks under .500. Of course, they went on to go 14-2 that year and win the Super Bowl. The Patriots also haven’t lost 3 straight since 2002, the last time they missed the playoffs, so they’ll put that streak on the line as well tonight. Do I think they snap that streak as well? Well, anything’s possible, but I’m not going to bet it.

This is the exact situation the Patriots thrive in. Tom Brady is 25-12 ATS off a loss in his career (including a cover last week, which was not a BS cover because the Patriots led ATS the entire night), and 10-1 ATS off a close loss (1-3 points), which was also a situation in play last week. I try to watch as little of the talking heads on television as I possibly can, but whenever it’s been unavoidable (like during the Thursday Night telecast this week), one of the main topics was “how can the Patriots get it together?” You know the Patriots are using that as bulletin board material, just like their 1-2 record.

Plus, I also find that question pretty stupid. It’s not like the Patriots are in disarray or anything. They’ve lost 2 straight games by a combined 2 points to two teams that are a combined 6-1. Extra motivated by all the doubt and facing an easier team, the Patriots should bounce back this week. They’ve gotten off to slow starts in their last 2 years, starting 1-1 in 2010 and 2-1 and 5-3 last year, before eventually going on 13-1 and 8-0 runs respectively, 13-2 and 10-1 if you include playoffs. This is the most consistent franchise in the NFL over the last decade and as weird as this season has been, I think the weirdest thing that could happen would be this team falling to 1-3 against an old punching bag and looking poised to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2002, especially since Tom Brady isn’t even playing badly or anything (66.9% completion, 7.5 YPA, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception).

Speaking of the old punching bag Bills, I call them that because they’re not really a punching bag any more. They stand at 2-1 and they have a solid defense, a solid running game, a fantastic offensive line, and a quarterback who can move the chains if you give him time. However, they’re really built to win games against bad teams where they can establish their game plan.

Considering their game plans starts with a strong defense that allows their conservative offense to function, this week could be a rude awakening for them. Tom Brady is playing just fine and just scored 29 points on the Ravens, even in a loss. They will probably not be able to run as much as they normally do (and both CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson are questionable), which will put more pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick than you would like, bad news for a quarterback who leads the league in interceptions over the last calendar year.

The one matchup concern I have is how good Buffalo’s offensive line is. They rank 1st in the league in pass block efficiency, which is no fluke because they did the same thing last year. The Patriots secondary is not very good and if you give him time, any quarterback can tear it up, at least in theory. I say in theory because, while Fitzpatrick had a great game the first time these two met last year (27 of 40 for 369 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions), he really struggled in their next meeting, going 29 of 46 for 307 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. The Patriots are great at game planning so it’s possible they just figured out Chan Gailey’s scheme and made Fitzpatrick look like the system quarterback he is.

The Bills might not be a punching bag any more, but their 3 games have come against very easy opponents. In fact, you can argue that all 3 teams they’ve played are worse than each of the 3 teams the Patriots have played (Tennessee/NY Jets is debatable). The pissed off Patriots should be able to make them look like a punching bag this week. The only reason this isn’t a pick of the week is because the public is pounding the Patriots (though the line movement is going in the right direction) and the public is 4-12 on heavy leans this year. Also home dogs are 13-6 ATS this season, including 12-7 straight up, but I think that had more to do with the replacement refs than anything. I also don’t like that I don’t have field goal protection because there could be a backdoor cover, but I expect the Patriots to come out on fire and put the Bills away early to shut up their critics. Them starting 1-3 would just be too weird.

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): BUF 6 NE 10

Update: This was feeling like a bit of a trap line, so I’m glad to see the sharps like New England too. I’m not dropping any units.

New England Patriots 34 Buffalo Bills 20

Pick against spread: New England -4.5 (-110) 3 units

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Buffalo Bills: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Bills

Last week: 12 (-3)

Record: 2-1

This Bills fall despite winning for several reasons. One is the injury to CJ Spiller. Both he and Fred Jackson are questionable this week and will probably be back eventually, but it’s definitely not a good thing. The other is just that other teams in the AFC and have leaped them and the only reason they were in the top 12 is because top 12 is my playoff teams. I have Buffalo finishing one spot out of the playoffs now. An easy schedule, a good defense, a good running game, an excellent offensive line (first in the league in pass block efficiency) and a quarterback who can be decent if you give him time should allow them to be competitive and be in it until the last week or so, but I have them just missing.

Studs

C Eric Wood: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 57 yards on 7 attempts

RG Kraig Urbik: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 22 yards on 7 attempts

LOLB Nick Barnett: 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops, allowed 5 catches for 27 yards on 5 attempts

CB Aaron Williams: Allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 4 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

LOLB Bryan Scott: 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, allowed 2 catches for 3 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception

FS Jairus Byrd: Allowed 2 catches for 2 yards on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

RE Chris Kelsay: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bills, Browns

Buffalo Bills (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-2)

Before the season, I identified 5 overrated and 5 underrated teams, with the idea of betting on them (or against them) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. This served me well as I’m 10-4 this year on games involving those 10 teams. One of the 4 losses was because I abandoned shipped on the Bills after week 1 and picked the Chiefs last week. In doing so, I broke one of my own rules, never overreact to one week (I also broke another one of my rules last week, never bet heavily on Jay Cutler, those two losses were two of just five. I should listen to myself.)

I had the Bills making it into the playoffs on the good defense, good running game, conservative offense, don’t make mistakes, easy schedule model, but after their week 1 loss, I overreacted and dropped them. However, the Bills bounced back big time this week and beat the Chiefs by 18 in a game that was 35-3 after the first 3 quarters before 2 garbage time scores. They looked exactly like what I envisioned they would and they can definitely continue to beat up on crappy competition like that. And for the record, no this is not an overreaction to one game. I’m simply undoing my previous overreaction. Without Fred Jackson, CJ Spiller looks like one of the best running backs in the league and the defense looks like I thought they would, which makes live easy for Ryan Fitzpatrick.

The Browns count as crappy competition, definitely. Without Joe Haden, they are probably the worst team in the league and at the very least they’re one of the worst. This is the type of team Buffalo should be able to establish their game plan against and dominate. I feel like the Bills are once again being really underrated, even more so than the beginning of the year.

In the beginning of the year, they were a popular sleeper and even with the Jets in the odds makers book, but one bad game and one good game and now all of a sudden they’re just -3 at a Browns team that should never be bet as anything other than dogs of 3+ against anyone other than really crappy teams. The Bills aren’t and I’m taking one of my original underrated teams to dominate them in Cleveland.

As long as I get field goal protection, this is a moderate sized bet and I do get field goal protection at -3. The only reason this isn’t a huge bet is because New England is next on the schedule for the Bills (and after that, San Francisco. They could be caught looking forward to that one. Still, I’m certainly not taking the Browns to win this game, even at home, and with such a small spread, that’s basically what you have to be comfortable doing if you take Cleveland.

Public lean: Buffalo (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Buffalo Bills 27 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against spread: Buffalo -3 (-105) 3 units

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Buffalo Bills: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Bills

Last week: 21 (+9)

Record: 1-1

This is why you don’t bail on predictions after one game. I had the Bills making it into the playoffs on the good defense, good running game, conservative offense, don’t make mistakes, easy schedule model, but after their week 1 loss, I overreacted and dropped them. However, the Bills bounced back big time this week and beat the Chiefs by 18 in a game that was 35-3 after the first 3 quarters before 2 garbage time scores. They looked exactly like what I envisioned they would and they can definitely continue to beat up on crappy competition like that. And for the record, no this is not an overreaction to one game. I’m simply undoing my previous overreaction.

Studs

RB CJ Spiller: Rushed for 123 yards (78 after contact) and 2 touchdowns on 15 carries, 2 broken tackles, 3 catches for 47 yards on 3 targets

RG Kraig Urbik: Did not allow a pressure on 22 pass block snaps, run blocked for 36 yards on 6 carries

C Eric Wood: Did not allow a pressure on 22 pass block snaps, run blocked for 19 yards on 4 carries

DT Kyle Williams: 2 sacks and 2 quarterback pressures on 34 pass rush snaps, 2 stops

FS Jairus Byrd: Didn’t allow a completion on 1 attempt, 1 interception, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

Duds

CB Aaron Williams: Allowed 6 catches for 65 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

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Bills lose David Nelson for season, Fred Jackson for at least 4 weeks

stevenlourie Bills, News

The Bills didn’t just lose the opener in embarrassing fashion, 48-28; they also lost two players for an extended period of time. Wide receiver David Nelson tore his ACL and was placed on season ending IR. Nelson is a largely underwhelming talent, who caught 61 passes for 658 yards and 5 touchdowns last year, but the slot receiver was Ryan Fitzpatrick’s #2 target and plays at a position of little depth.

In his absence, starter Donald Jones, another underwhelming talent, will move from the outside to the slot on passing downs. Jones had 41 catches for 444 yards and 2 touchdowns coming into the season and didn’t do much in the opener, catching 5 passes for 41 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, 3rd round rookie TJ Graham will come into the game in 3-wide receiver sets. Graham has talent, but he’s incredibly raw, having started just one year as a wide receiver at NC State. After those 3 on the depth chart, they have career journeyman Ruvell Martin and his 20 catches over the last 3 seasons, and wildcat quarterback Brad Smith.

The other injury was to Fred Jackson. Jackson sprained his knee and was given a murky timetable of 3-8 weeks, though for what it’s worth, he says it will be 4 weeks or less. He’ll be re-evaluated in 7-10 days. He’s a more talented player, but the injury isn’t quite as severe as Nelson’s and the Bills have depth at the position. In his absence, CJ Spiller rushed for 169 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries against a normally good Jets’ run defense and added 2 catches for 25 yards. I know the Jets were without Sione Pouha, but it was still a very impressive game for him. In 6 starts last year, he rushed for 449 yards and 3 scores on 90 carries, adding in another 26 catches for 205 yards and 2 scores through the air. Remember, he was the 9th overall pick in 2010, so he should be more than capable of carrying the load in Jackson’s absence.

The one issue there is with depth behind Spiller. Spiller isn’t the prototypical lead back because of his size at 5-11 196. He’s not the short yardage back Fred Jackson was and if he proves to not be durable enough to carry the load, their next option on the depth chart is the mediocre Tashard Choice. Choice isn’t much of a short yardage back either, because he’s just generally not a great back, so he should only see a few carries per game behind Spiller, at most. It’s all on Spiller now.

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Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bills, Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1)

I had the Bills as one of my underrated teams going into the season, thinking that they’d be that team this year that makes the playoffs on the combination of a strong running game, strong defense, decent quarterback play, and an easy schedule. Well, it turns out that only works if your quarterback isn’t horrific and your defense doesn’t give up after going on 21-0 early as the opposing team’s offense scores twice with a short field off turnovers and then returns a kickoff for a touchdown.

At least I got the running game part right. Fred Jackson is out for this one, so the Bills won’t have their one-two punch, but CJ Spiller has proven he can be the one-two punch all by himself. In 6 starts last year, he rushed for 449 yards and 3 scores on 90 carries, adding in another 26 catches for 205 yards and 2 scores through the air. Last week, he managed 169 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries against a normally good Jets’ run defense and added 2 catches for 25 yards. I know the Jets were without Sione Pouha, but it was still a very impressive game for him. Remember, he was the 9th overall pick in 2010, so he should be more than capable of carrying the load in Jackson’s absence.

The passing game and the defense weren’t good in the opener, but I think the latter will be better in this one. The Bills may have surrendered 48 points, but 14 of those were on a pick six and a punt return for a touchdown. Of the remaining 34, 14 were allowed early in the game on a short field and after those two scores and the punt return touchdown, the Bills’ defense just gave up.

That they gave up is a concern, but if they can have better luck early in this one, the defense won’t do that and they have a lot of talent, especially on the defensive line, so they should have a good game. Last week, because of their offense’s ineptude, they were on the field the 12th most of any team in the league in terms of time of possession and only allowed the 11th most yards. That’s not as horrific of a defensive performance as the 48 points would suggest.

The passing game is a major concern. All Fitzpatrick has to do, given their good running game and defense, is not make mistakes, but he threw 3 turnovers last week. He had that nice start to last season, but in his last 10 games, he’s completed 216 of 372 (58.1%) for 2288 yards (6.2 YPA), 13 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. He didn’t have a good preseason either and he can’t blame a rib injury this time. I don’t know if he just doesn’t care as much now that he’s gotten paid or if his strong start to last season was a fluke or if opposing defensive coordinators have just caught on to Chan Gailey’s scheme or if it’s all 3, but Fitzpatrick is awful and probably will need to be replaced this offseason.

The Chiefs are similarly built. They can run the ball with Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis and they have a good defense. I know they surrendered 40 to the Falcons last week, but they were missing their top cornerback and their top pass rusher and the Falcons might have a top-5 offense this year. Tamba Hali and Brandon Flowers will be back this week and the Bills are far from a top-5 offense, so they should be able to have a good defensive game. This will allow them to execute the conservative offense they weren’t really able to in the opener because of their defensive play. This will make life easy for Matt Cassel, who turned the ball over 3 times last week because he was playing from behind for most of the game.

Theoretically, these teams are built the same way. Both can run the football and play good defense and make life easy for their quarterbacks, especially against easier opponents and both teams do have easier opponents this week. However, Cassel has proven that when things are made easy for him, he can avoid turnovers. Fitzpatrick seems to just like to force things even when he doesn’t have to.

Kansas City will probably win the turnover battle and the game here in Buffalo, but it’s not a huge bet because I hate betting on a team winning the turnover battle. Turnovers are just so tough to predict not just on a yearly basis, but on the weekly basis in the NFL and that’s really the one edge Kansas City should have this week over Buffalo. If they can’t win the turnover battle, Buffalo should win this one at home by a small margin. One note, this line is listed at +3 (+100) at some places and +3.5 (-120) at some places. If you can pay for the extra half point, do it. If Buffalo wins, it’ll probably be only by a field goal.

Public lean: Kansas City (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Kansas City Chiefs 16 Buffalo Bills 13 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3 (+100) 2 units

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Buffalo Bills: Week 2 Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Bills

Last week: 11 (-10)

Record: 0-1

I don’t often admit I’m wrong after week 1 (more on this later) because it’s one game and the last thing I want to do is flip flop after one week and then eventually find out I was right the first time. However, I’m pretty sure I’m wrong about the Bills getting into the playoffs on the decent quarterback, good running game, good defense, easy schedule model. That only works if your quarterback isn’t horrendous, which Fitzpatrick was against the Jets.

Fitzpatrick was 18 of 32 for 195 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, including a pick six and was even worse than that would suggest because a lot of those yards and touchdown came in garbage time. He set the Jets up with great field position all game and even gave their offense a free 7, which made it impossible for their defense to have a good game. It also doesn’t help that the defense mailed it in after getting down big early with the Jets capitalizing on great field position.

Their defense is still talented and they’ll still be able to run the ball without Fred Jackson because CJ Spiller is awesome (169 yards on 14 carries) and their schedule is still easy, so maybe they can sneak into the playoffs with the right luck, but they should be demand a full refund on that giant contract they gave Fitzpatrick because his late season slump last year does not appear to have been a fluke. In fact, Bills fans should be hoping they don’t sneak into the playoffs, because that would really hurt their chances of landing a franchise quarterback through the draft.

Studs

RB CJ Spiller: 169 yards rushing (133 after contact) and a touchdown on 14 carries, 8 broken tackles, 2 catches for 25 yards on 3 attempts

C Eric Wood: Allowed 0 sacks, quarterback hits, and quarterback pressures on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 28 yards on 5 attempts

DT Kyle Williams: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 3 stops on 26 run snaps, 1 quarterback hit on 25 pass rush snaps

ROLB Arthur Moats: 4 solo tackles, 2 assists and 3 stops on 24 run snaps

LOLB Nick Barnett: 8 solo tackles, 1 assist and 5 stops on 35 run snaps, allowed 2 catches for 27 yards on 2 attempts

Duds

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick: Completed 18 of 32 for 195 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, 60.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured 12 times

LE Mario Williams: 1 quarterback hit on 26 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle and 1 stop on 35 run snaps

CB Leodis McKelvin: Allowed 6 catches for 71 yards and 2 touchdowns on 6 attempts, 3 solo tackles and 1 missed tackle on 3 run snaps

CB Stephon Gilmore: Allowed 4 catches for 84 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, and 1 stop on 37 run snaps

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