Bills

Bills’ Steve Johnson could be limited by groin injury

stevenlourie Bills, News

Steve Johnson is becoming a notorious Darrelle Revis killer; he’s as notorious for that as he is for his premature touchdown dances. Johnson caught 3 passes for 84 yards, all against Revis, week 9 last year, and then another 8 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown, again all against Revis, week 12 last year. That touchdown was the only touchdown Revis allowed last year and those 11 catches accounted for 31.4% of the 35 catches that Johnson allowed last year. The 159 yards were 31.3% of the 508 yards he allowed. Unsurprisingly, those two games against the Bills were Revis’ 2 worst yardage games of the season.

However, there’s a chance the “Revis Killer” could be limited for the season opener against Revis and the Jets with groin problems. He was limited in practice throughout the week, although he says he’s not concerned, even though this injury caused him problems last year, saying “I’m not concerned at all about having to deal with this like I did last year.” He might just be down playing the injury and I can‘t see how this isn’t related to the problems he was having this year.

They need him to be 100%, not just because he’s a “Revis Killer”, but because he’s an overall talented receiver on a team that lacks receiving depth. Over the past 2 seasons, he’s caught 158 passes for 2077 yards and 17 touchdowns and was given a well deserved 5 year, 36.25 million dollar deal worth 18.05 million guaranteed this offseason. However, they only have 3 other receivers behind him on the depth chart, 4 if you count wildcat quarterback Brad Smith.

Donald Jones, an inexperienced 2010 undrafted free agent, will start opposite Johnson. He has 41 catches for 444 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2 seasons. Their 2nd leading receiver last year was David Nelson, who caught 61 passes for 658 yards and 5 touchdowns. He’ll play in the slot. In an attempt to fix their wide receiver problems, they used a 3rd round pick on TJ Graham, but he’s just 4th on the depth chart, which makes sense because the raw receiver was only a 1 year starter in college.

Tight end Scott Chandler doesn’t offer much as a pass catcher either, especially outside of the red zone, as he caught 38 passes for 389 yards and 6 touchdowns last year. Johnson played fine through a similar injury last year, so it’s not a huge issue. However, if Johnson isn’t 100% or Revis is able to shut him down, the Bills could have a lot of trouble moving the ball through the air against the Jets, though they can still win since the Jets should have the same problems.

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Buffalo Bills at New York Jets Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bills, Jets

Buffalo Bills (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

I identified Buffalo as one of my underrated teams coming into the season. They were 5-2 last year before injuries struck and averaging 30.1 points per game. Then Fitzpatrick, who was 155 of 229 (67.7%) for 1739 yards (7.6 YPA), 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions through 7 games, broke some ribs which hampered his ability to play for the rest of the season, as he finished by completing 198 of 340 (58.2%) for 2093 yards (6.2 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions, leading the offense to 18.1 points per game.

They also lost key members of their offensive line to injury shortly after that, which is important because up until that point, they were the league’s best offensive line, allowing just 8 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures in their first 9 games. Fitzpatrick has proven he can make throws and move the chains when he has time, but he threw 8 interceptions to 2 touchdowns under pressure last year and his under pressure accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) was 53.3%, 3rd worst in the NFL. Eric Wood is back, but Demetress Bell is not, instead being replaced by 2nd round rookie Cordy Glenn. If he can hold up, Fitzpatrick should have a solid year. And I haven’t even mentioned Fred Jackson, who looked like an MVP candidate through 10 games before getting hurt.

Now, Fitzpatrick is obviously not a proven commodity. There’s a chance his 7 game stretch last year was just a fluke, but he probably isn’t as bad as he was in their final 9 games either and as long as he is solid, the Bills should be able to field a competitive team. They have two great running backs in Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, a great offensive line, and a much improved defense. Only 2 teams had fewer than the 29 sacks they had last year and 9 of those 29 sacks came in one game against Washington’s terrible offensive line. No one had more than 6 sacks and only 3 players had more than 3 sacks.

Now they add Mario Williams, one of the best pass rushers in the league, Mark Anderson, who had had 15 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures on 420 pass rush snaps last season, an incredible 13.6% rate. They also return Kyle Williams, ProFootballFocus’ #1 defensive tackle in 2010, to a line that already had Marcell Dareus, the 2nd pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. He should be even better in his 2nd year in the league and all of a sudden, the Bills have one of the best defensive lines in the league and a very solid defense.

That defense should continue to stifle a Jets offense that scored just 1 touchdown all preseason and that was with their 3rd team offense against a 3rd team defense (the guy who caught it was a final cut). You can argue that Tebow’s performance was a fluke and that he’ll be better in real games in a system he fits better, but you can’t argue that Sanchez’ was and he’s still the starting quarterback. Sanchez was a very overrated quarterback over the first 2 years of his career and was exposed last season. He’s completed 55.3% of his passes for 6.5 YPA and 55 touchdowns to 51 interceptions in his career and actually has a worse career QB rating than Tebow, who has the lower completion percentage, but the higher YPA and better TD/INT rate.

He might even be worse this season for two reasons. The former is his confidence. He was reportedly rattled and “floored” when the Jets traded for Tebow, according to receiver Santonio Holmes. That’s not what you want to see. The latter reason is his receiving corps. I know they were bad last season, but they look even worse this season. Santonio Holmes can’t stay healthy and 2nd round rookie Stephen Hill is incredibly raw. If there’s one area where the Bills’ defense is susceptible, it’s at cornerback with a rookie and a 2nd year player starting, but the Jets don’t have the receiving talent at all to take advantage.

The Bills should win the battle upfront defensively with their great defensive line, in addition to winning the battle in the secondary. Sanchez is really bad under pressure. He took a sack on 23.8% of pressured snaps last year, 4th worst in the league, and his under pressure accuracy percentage of 49.0% was dead last in the league. The Jets actually have a decent offensive line, except right tackle Austin Howard, but Sanchez makes them look worse than they are. The Bills’ defensive line will also to that to them.

The Jets best chance of winning this game is if they can establish the run. The Bills shouldn’t be nearly as susceptible to the run as they were last year, when they ranked 27th in YPC, because of their improved defensive line and generally strong front 7. Besides, it’s not like the Jets have the running back talent to effectively run a conservative, run heavy offense, at least not until Tebow becomes the starting quarterback, functions as a much needed 2nd running back, and opens things up on the ground for Shonn Greene the way he did for Willis McGahee last year.

The Jets have a very good defense that should be able to keep the Bills’ offense in check, but I like the Bills to make enough plays come out victorious here. The Jets don’t have the kind of pass rush to beat Buffalo’s great offensive line and a healthy Fitzpatrick should be able to move the chains with consistency, aided by a good running game. Besides, I’m basically going to be betting on my underrated teams blindly until the spreads catch up or the teams prove me wrong. This spread is not accurate saying these two teams are evenly matched (granted, with juice).

Buffalo Bills 17 New York Jets 10 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3 (-135) 2 units

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Buffalo Bills Final Roster Analysis

stevenlourie Bills, Final Roster Analysis

Quarterbacks

At quarterback, starter Ryan Fitzpatrick was obviously a lock, as was backup Tarvaris Jackson, who they just traded for. Jackson’s 2012 salary became guaranteed when they asked him to take a paycut, so they weren’t cutting him less than a week after trading for him. Brad Smith, their wildcat quarterback, who also plays wide receiver and special teams, was safe as a jack of all trades type player.

That’s three quarterbacks and teams don’t normally carry more than that, so the writing seemed to be on the wall for Tyler Thigpen, especially after they cut Vince Young, who reportedly pulled ahead of Thigpen this preseason. Thigpen was owed 2.5 million, way too much for a 3rd string quarterback. Instead, they kept him as a 3rd quarterback at a reduced rate of 1.5 million. Smith will technically be the 4th string and wildcat quarterback, but he’ll also provide some depth at wide receiver, where the team is thin at their final cuts.

Running Backs

Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller were obvious locks at running back. Behind them, Tashard Choice, a Chadn Gailey favorite, between out Johnny White, a 2011 5th round pick, and Zach Brown, an undrafted free agent, for the 3rd running back job. At fullback, Corey McIntyre remains the starter, but the Bills also kept Dorin Dickerson, a swiss army knife type player. Dickerson will play fullback, some h-back, and some tight end for them and practiced with the 1st team in special packages this offseason. He’ll also contribute on special teams.

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Receiving Corps

The Bills had a bunch of players competing for the starting wide receiver job opposite Steve Johnson and one of those players, Derek Hagan was cut as the Bills opted to go with 4 wide receivers (though Brad Smith can also play there). Steve Johnson and 3rd round pick TJ Graham were the only locks, but David Nelson and Donald Jones won the slot receiver job and the starting job respectively in the preseason and Training Camp and made the roster.

Graham will start the season as the 4th receiver and could see more playing time as the season goes on given how thin the receiving corps is, even though Graham is very raw with just one year of starting experience in college at NC State. Naaman Roosevelt, who saw significant playing time last year was cut, as was Marcus Easley, a 2010 4th round pick. It’s unclear why they didn’t keep at least one of those guys. They needed a 5th receiver and any of those guys would have been qualified. If a roster spot opens up, they could use it to add a wide receiver or bring back one of those guys. At tight end, starter Scott Chandler remains and blocking specialist Lee Smith also remains. Dorin Dickerson, as I mentioned, could see time here as well as a “move tight end” behind Scott Chandler, a big blocker and end zone threat.

Offensive Line

Starters Cordy Glenn (left tackle), Andy Levitre (left guard), Eric Wood (center), Kraig Urbik (right guard), and Erik Pears (right tackle) were locks as they from one of the most underrated offensive lines in all of football, especially in pass protection. Chad Rinehart was still a lock for the roster, even after losing the starting job to Urbik, because of his versatility and how well he played last season when injuries struck. Chris Hairston, who also had to start when injuries struck last year, was a lock to be kept as well as the swing tackle.

That figured to leave two more spots on the line, since teams normally keep 9 offensive linemen, one on the inside and one on the outside. These guys would likely be game day inactives because teams normally just keep 7 offensive linemen active for game day. Sam Young returned as the reserve right tackle, while Colin Brown beat out 6th round pick Mark Asper, a collegiate tackle, who was trying and apparently failing to convert to center.

Defensive Line

Starters Mario Williams, Mark Anderson, Kyle Williams, and Marcell Dareus, were obviously the locks, but the Bills had 4 veteran backups who were being paid like starters, Shawne Merriman (4 million), Dwan Edwards (3.8 million), Spencer Johnson (3 million), and Chris Kelsay (3.5 million). Merriman was cut earlier this month and Edwards was a final cut, but Johnson and Kelsay were not.

This makes some sense. They are overpaid, but the Bills aren’t backed up against the cap and back will provide valuable depth on a line that otherwise wouldn’t have really had any. Kelsay will be a nickel rusher, while Johnson was rotate in occasionally at defensive tackle. 2010 3rd round pick Alex Carrington stayed on the roster as well. He’s been a disappointed, but he was good enough to beat out Jarron Gilbert and Kellen Heard for the 4th defensive tackle spot. Kyle Moore, likewise, won the 4th defensive end spot over Robert Eddins.

Linebackers

Every down linebackers Nick Barnett and Kelvin Sheppard were obviously safe, as was Arthur Moats, who beat out Kirk Morrison to be the two-down running stuff linebacker. Morrison, even though he lost that job, was kept, as expected, as valuable depth across the board. He’ll also probably see a fairly big special teams role. Veteran Bryan Scott was also kept. The surprising move was the release of Tank Carder, a 5th round rookie. He lost out to a 4th round rookie Nigel Bradham and, more surprisingly, 2011 6th round pick Chris White, who stuck as a 6th linebacker. He’ll frequently be a game day inactive.

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Secondary

Aaron Williams and Stephon Gilmore were locks at cornerback as the starters, as was Leodis McKelvin, who recently won the nickel cornerback job. He also is their 1st string punt returner and backup kick returner. Ron Brooks was a lock because of his draft position, as a 4th round rookie, while Justin Rogers looked like a lock because he was their starting return man.

That didn’t seem to leave room for Terrence McGee and his 1.35 million dollar salary, after missing 22 games in the last 3 seasons. However, an injury to Ron Brooks opened up the door for him. Brooks had surgery on his foot and could be put on IR. For now, the Bills are keeping 6 cornerbacks, with McGee actually listed as the dime back ahead of Rogers, but if they put Brooks on IR, that will open up a roster spot for a receiver like Marcus Easley, who was added to the practice squad.

At safety, George Wilson and Jairus Byrd were locks as starters and Da’Norris Searcy earned another year on the team, possibly added by his status as a 4th round pick last year. Undrafted free agent Delano Howell won the 4th spot at a thin position over Isaiah Green and Nick Saenz. Howell’s special teams ability earned him the edge and he could be on the game day roster for his special teams prowess.

Specialists

Brian Moorman and Rian Lindell made the roster once again as punter and place kicker, but the Bills also kept a 3rd kicker, backup place kicker and kickoff specialist John Potter, their 7th round pick. We’ll see if he proves to be worth a roster spot just for kickoffs. Lindell did fine on kickoffs last year. The Bills held their opponent’s to the lowest average per kickoff return in the league and Lindell’s yards per kickoff was at 66.5, 23rd in the league out of 37 eligible players. Not great, but not bad enough to use a roster spot on a specialist to replace him.

Leodis McKelvin will return punts, while Justin Rogers will return kicks. CJ Spiller will backup McKelvin as punt returner, while McKelvin will back up Rogers as kick returner and come in when they put two returns in. Brad Smith will also provide depth there. Garrison Sanborn will once again be their long snapper.

Practice Squad

WR Marcus Easley

C David Snow

DT Jarron Gilbert

S Isaiah Green

WR Kamar Aiken

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Leodis McKelvin wins Bills’ nickel cornerback job

stevenlourie Bills, News

The Bills pretty much hosted a 4 way competition for the nickel cornerback job between Leodis McKelvin, Justin Rogers, Ron Brooks, and Terrence McGee. According to Head Coach Chan Gailey, the competition is officially over with McKelvin coming out as the victor. He will come in on 3-cornerback sets behind Stephon Gilmore and Aaron Williams. McKelvin, a bust as a 1st round pick in 2008, allowed 27 completions on 45 attempts (60.0%) for 455 yards (10.1 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and an interception, to go with 7 deflections and a penalty last season.

McKelvin started 6 games, was a backup for another 6 and missed 4 with injury. Maybe a move full time to the slot will be good for him and it’s encouraging that he beat out all those guys, but in limited action in his career, he’s allowed 10 of 12 for 90 yards and a touchdown on 90 career snaps on the slot. As for the other 3, only 2 will make the roster at most because teams almost never carry 6 cornerbacks.

Ron Brooks is likely save by virtue of his status as a 4th round pick rookie. Those guys are almost never cut before the season starts. Justin Rogers, meanwhile, will likely make the roster because he’s actually listed as the 1st first kick returner. The 2011 7th round pick, who had reportedly did have a good chance to win the slot job, averaged an impressive 28.7 yards per return with a long of 52 last season, albeit on jut 13 returns.

That leaves veteran Terrence McGee as the odd man out and, frankly, the writing has been on the wall for him for a while. He even recently expressed concern over his roster spot security, saying “I’m at the back of the line right now. There are guys way in front of me right now.” Heading into his age 32 season having missed 22 games in the last 3 seasons, McGee isn’t worth his 1.35 million dollar salary, even after restructuring earlier this offseason. The Bills will probably just eat their $350,000 signing bonus with him and make him a final cut.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Seattle Seahawks trade QB Tarvaris Jackson to Buffalo Bills

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Bills, Offseason Moves 2012, Seahawks

Trade for Seattle: There was just no room in Seattle for Jackson. Russell Wilson had an impressive offseason to win the starting quarterback job as a 3rd round pick rookie, while Matt Flynn basically won the backup quarterback job by virtue of his fully guaranteed 8 million dollar salary in 2012, 6 million of which had already been paid to him in the form of a signing bonus. Jackson was owed 4 million this season and even if he had agreed to a pay cut with the Seahawks, which he did with the Bills as part of this trade, it wouldn’t have made any sense to keep him. Credit them for getting something for him.

Grade: A

Trade for Buffalo: Ryan Fitzpatrick has definitely flashed at times in his career as a starter, but he’s certainly not a proven franchise quarterback yet and he is pretty injury prone. For that reason, it’s a necessity for the Bills to protect themselves with a solid veteran quarterback. However, Vince Young, who was signed this offseason to a 1 year deal to do that, has been awful this preseason, completing just 25 of 52 (48.1%) for 276 yards (5.3 YPA), 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. His competition for the job, Tyler Thigpen, was even worse completing 11 of 23 (47.8%) for 94 yards (4.1 YPA), 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Both of them will likely be cut as part of final cuts now, or even sooner, as Jackson will be Fitzpatrick’s primary backup. For a late round pick and a reasonable salary after pay cut, this move makes a lot of sense.

Grade: A

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Bills release Shawne Merriman

stevenlourie Bills, News

It may be lights out for lights out. Shawne “lights out” Merriman had 40 sacks in his first 3 years in the league from 2005-2007 with the Chargers after going in the 1st round in 2005, but he’s had just 5 sacks in 4 seasons since. Though he was reportedly in better shape than any of the past few years this offseason, leading some to expect him to carve out a situational role on the Bills’ defensive line, his salary of 4 million dollars was too much for the Bills and they cut him ahead of final cuts.

Even though he’s only heading into his age 28 season, he won’t generate much interest on the open market, so close to final cuts (September 2nd). This might be it for his career. It’s telling that the Rams, in need of defensive end depth, tried out Andre Carter and Vernon Gholston, signing Gholston, but didn’t give Merriman a look.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Bills could cut Dwan Edwards, Terrence McGee

stevenlourie Bills, News

Every year at final cuts, there are several players who are experienced veterans who get cut, for various reasons. These guys are normally swooped up pretty quickly to play roles on other teams for less money, sometimes much less. Two of these guys for the Bills could easily be Dwan Edwards and Terrence McGee.

McGee restructured his contract earlier this offseason, signing a 2 year, 4 million dollar deal, rather than going into the season making 3.6 million, his original salary, in order to save his roster spot. However, only $300,000 of that contract, the signing bonus, was guaranteed, so his roster spot is not safe. He recently expressed concern over his roster spot security, saying “I’m at the back of the line right now. There are guys way in front of me right now.”

McGee is in a 4 way battle for the nickel cornerback job and, since teams normally only carry 4 or 5 cornerbacks, at least one member of that battle will not make the final roster. 2011 7th round pick Justin Rogers, an inexperienced player, is currently the favorite and will also have an impact on special teams as a return man, so his job is probably safe. Ron Brooks was a 4th round pick just in April so his job is probably safe.

That leaves McGee and Leodis McKelvin fighting for a roster spot. McKelvin’s age, heading into his age 27 season, could be the deciding factor that leads to McGee getting cut, heading into his age 32 season, coming off a torn patellar tendon that cost him most of last season. The oft injured cornerback has missed 22 games in the last 3 seasons, another factor that could decide his fate. He could still be picked up after final cuts and make a roster as a depth cornerback at the veteran’s minimum, should he chose to continue playing.

Edwards, meanwhile, was signed to a 4 year, 18 million dollar deal in the 2010 offseason as the Bills were hoping to convert Edwards, one of the league’s best rotational players in 2009, into a full time every down end in their 3-4. However, Edwards did not live up to expectations and was nothing short of awful last season, grading out 82nd on ProFootballFocus among defensive tackles, in Buffalo’s hybrid 3-4/4-3.

In a full time 4-3 now, Edwards is nothing more than a backup defensive tackle behind Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus and not a very good one. With a cap hit of 4.175 million, he’s far too overpaid and it would make a ton of sense to cut him, unless he restructures. Only heading into his age 31 season, he should be able to find a home for the 2012 season after final cuts at a more reasonable price.

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Buffalo Bills 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Bills, News

G Andy Levitre

Andy Levitre emerged as one of the best guards in the league last season and he also played some center and left tackle, so he’s got plenty of versatility. However, guards and centers are rarely franchise tagged because the franchise tag value for interior linemen is the same as for tackles and interior linemen just aren’t worth as much. Unless Levitre ends up moving to left tackle long term, he won’t be worth the offensive line franchise tag value (9.4 million in 2012). For this reason, the Bills are trying hard to lock him up before the season.

Likelihood: Unlikely

S Jairus Byrd

Jairus Byrd has emerged as one of the best all around safeties in the NFL and he’s better than Michael Huff, Tyvon Branch, Michael Griffin, and Dashon Goldson, all of whom have been franchised as safeties over the last 2 seasons. The safety franchise tag value is pretty small (6.2 million in 2012) so, unless they can get him signed long term beforehand, it’s very likely he gets the tag next offseason.

Likelihood: Very likely

P Brian Moorman

Punters and kickers are often franchise tagged by default by teams who don’t any anyone else to franchise tag because the value for the punter tag and kicker tag are both very small. Moorman is a great punter who averaged 48.2 yards per punt last season, but the Bills have other, more valuable players worthy of the tag.

Likelihood: Unlikely

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Buffalo Bills 2012 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Bills

Offense

It was really a tale of two seasons for the Bills last year. In their first 7 games, they went 5-2, with a win over New England. Their only two losses came by a field goal against eventual playoff teams Cincinnati and the New York Giants (on the road), and their other 4 wins were at Kansas City, vs. Oakland, vs. Philadelphia, and vs. Washington.

They outscored their opponents 211 to 147, which extrapolates to 482 points for and 336 points against for a 16 game season, totals that would have ranked 4th and 12th respectively if sustained over the whole season. Those numbers also translate to a Pythagorean Expectation of about 11.2 wins. However, the Bills won just 1 of their final 9 games, finishing 6-10 with 372 points for (14th) and 434 points against (30th) and a Pythagorean Expectation of just 6.6 wins.

Quarterback

So what happened? Did the Bills prove their first 7 games were a fluke? Maybe, but injuries also had a lot to do with it. Ryan Fitzpatrick, whose breakout performance in the team’s first 7 games earned him a shiny new contract extension, suffered a rib injury week 8 against the Redskins, cracking 4 ribs and injuring his sternum, and was not the same afterwards.

In his first 7 games, Fitzpatrick completed 155 of 229 (67.7%) for 1739 yards (7.6 YPA), 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. In his final 9, he completed 198 of 340 (58.2%) for 2093 yards (6.2 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. That’s a big part of the reason why their offense went from 30.1 points per game in their first 7 to 18.1 points per game in their final 9.

Of course, Fitzpatrick was not helped by injuries to members of his supporting cast. Fred Jackson, an early MVP candidate, went down for the season week 11, after rushing for 934 yards and 6 touchdowns on 170 carries (5.5 YPC), while adding another 442 yards on 39 catches in the air. Meanwhile, key offensive linemen Eric Wood and Demetress (then Demetrius) Bell also suffered injuries with Wood going down for the year week 10 and Bell missing 9 games from week 4 to week 14.

After surrendering just 8 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures in their first 9 games, they surrendered 11 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 42 quarterback pressures in their final 7 games. This is significant because Ryan Fitzpatrick’s under pressure accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) was just 53.3% last season, 29th out of 35 eligible quarterbacks. In 2010, his first season as a full-time starter, he ranked 33rd out of 34 players under pressure, by being accurate of 50.0% of his under pressure snaps. He also threw 8 picks to 2 touchdowns under pressure.

This doesn’t necessarily mean Fitzpatrick’s performance in their first 7 weeks wasn’t somewhat fluky. After all, Fitzpatrick’s career before those 7 games was not exactly dominant, completing 679 of 1175 (57.8%) for 7104 yards (6.0 YPA), 44 touchdowns, and 42 interceptions in his career prior to last season, numbers that look eerily similar to how he played in his final 9 games last season. There’s also no guarantee he won’t get hurt again.

Still, it’s no coincidence that Fitzpatrick’s play, and the play of the team, got much worse when he got hurt and had to start playing injured and when several other key offensive players got hurt. They won’t score the 30.1 points per game they scored in their first 7 games, but they should be improved over the 23.2 points per game they finished with. He’s got a limited arm, completing just 17 of 58 passes deeper than 20+ yards in the air and going deep on just 10.2% of his attempts, but in Chan Gailey’s system, he’s capable of game managing a team to victory so long as he’s protected well.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

One of the reasons to believe in Fitzpatrick this year is how good his offensive line is. Fitzpatrick has proven that he can lead an effective offense if given time in the pocket and the Bills have one of the best offensive lines in the league at doing that. Even with two major injuries, the Bills ranked first in pass blocking efficiency and allowed Fitzpatrick to be pressured on just 21.8% of his drop backs, 2nd best in the NFL.

Fitzpatrick also helps himself out with a quick release, taking a sack on just 15.6% of his pressured snaps, 8th best in the league, but his completion percentage plummets when pressured and he can get very erratic with the football (8 interceptions to 2 touchdowns). And they were even better before injuries struck, allowing just 8 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures in their first 9 games. Over 16 games, that’s an incredible 14 sacks, 23 quarterback hits, 49 quarterback quarterbacks if they could keep that up. They also ranked a decent 15th as run blockers on ProFootballFocus.

Eric Wood is back. Despite only playing in 9 games last season, he finished the year as ProFootballFocus’ 7th best center, run blocking well, allowing just 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback pressures, not allowing a sack and committing only 2 penalties. The presence of the 2009 1st round pick in the lineup undoubtedly helps and,if he can play all 16 games this season, it would be a huge boost.

Demetrius Bell is not back, but he never could stay healthy anyway. To replace him, the Bills used a 2nd round pick on Cordy Glenn. Glenn was not seen by many as someone who could stay at left tackle at the next level, which is why he fell to the 2nd round, but the Bills think he can and he’ll start there week 1. He’ll be an upgrade over Chris Hairston, who allowed 4 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 9 quarterback pressures, while run blocking poorly and committing 4 penalties in essentially 7 starts. The Bills also tried Andy Levitre at left tackle. He played better than Hairston, but he’s much better as a left guard.

Making 12 starts at left guard (3 at left tackle, 1 at center), Levitre was ProFootballFocus’ 6th rated guard, allowing 4 sacks, 1 quarterback hits, and 7 quarterback pressures, while committing 4 penalties and run blocking well. He was only average at left tackle, where he allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback pressures in 3 starters and he also made a start at center, showing off his versatility, though he was his worst at center. He’s never missed a start in 3 seasons after going in the 2nd round in 2009 and having him for 16 games at left guard will definitely be a boost.

At right guard, Kraig Urbik and Chad Rinehart will compete for the starting job. Urbik was the week 1 starter last year, but also played some left guard and center when needed and missed two games himself, which allowed Rinehart to get a good amount of playing time. In fact, Rinehart played more snaps than Urbik did and outplayed him according to ProFootballFocus.

Both are excellent pass protectors, as Rinehart allowed 0 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 8 quarterback pressures and Urbik allowed 0 sacks, 0 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback pressures, but Rinehart was the better run blocker and overall player. Urbik was better at guard than at center, but Rinehart should win this job. It’ll be close in Training Camp though and whoever wins should be an above average starter and whoever loses will provide solid depth as both players are good enough to start.

Right tackle Erik Pears is another solid player, especially in pass protection, allowing 4 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 27 quarterback pressures, while committing 7 penalties, though he struggled as a run blocker. The Bills don’t have the biggest names up front, but they play very well as a unit, especially in pass protection, which is more important, especially with Fitzpatrick under center. The one question mark is Cordy Glenn at left tackle, but they should rank among the top-5 pass blocking lines in the league at least, after being the #1 rated pass blocking line in the league last year, in spite of injuries.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

While they don’t run block that well, they run incredibly well, averaging 4.9 YPC last season, 5th in the league. They missed Fred Jackson when he went down, obviously, because he was an MVP candidate prior to his injury, but not too much because CJ Spiller, the 9th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, played almost as well in his absence. Spiller averaged 5.2 yards per carry on 107 carries last season, giving him 561 yards and 2 touchdowns, while catching 39 passes for another 269 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Bills have two legitimate #1 backs right now and will use both of them.

Fred Jackson rushed for 934 yards and 6 touchdowns on 170 carries (5.5 YPC) in 10 games, while adding another 442 yards on 39 catches in the air. He’s heading into his age 31 season, but he does only have 817 career carries after spending so many years working his way up as an undrafted free agent out of Division-III Coe. He certainly didn’t look like an older back last season and Spiller has proven himself worthy of a larger workload, which will help keep Jackson, who doesn’t have much of a prior injury history, healthy. They’ll be one of the best running teams in the league and that, along with their offensive line, will really help Fitzpatrick.

Grade: A-

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Ryan Fitzpatrick is also helped out by #1 receiver Steve Johnson. Johnson broke out in 2010, once Fitzpatrick became the starting quarterback, catching 71 passes for 930 yards and 10 touchdowns in 13 games with Fitzpatrick as the starting quarterback. Over 16 games, that’s 87 catches for 1145 yards and 12 touchdowns.

In 2011, he caught 76 passes for 1004 yards and 7 touchdowns, despite playing through a groin injury for most of the season. In his first 7 games last year, when Fitzpatrick was healthy, he caught 39 passes for 439 yards and 4 touchdowns, good for 89 catches for 1003 yards and 9 touchdowns over 16 games. Now fully healthy, with Fitzpatrick fully healthy, he could have a career best season in 2012 and catch upwards of 85 balls for 1100 yards and possibly double digit touchdowns.

Unfortunately, the rest of his receiving corps is not quite figured out yet. The Bills essentially have 4 guys competing for the #2 receiver spot. David Nelson was their 2nd leading receiver last year, playing both on the slot and outside and catching 61 passes for 658 yards and 5 touchdowns. Even if he doesn’t win a starting job, he’ll probably be the slot guy. Donald Jones, a 2010 undrafted free agent, might be the favorite to start opposite Johnson this season, but he’s caught just 41 passes for 444 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2 seasons.

Derek Hagan is another option. He spent part of last year in Oakland as well, where he was a preseason standout and caught 5 passes for 61 yards in a loss to the Bills. When the Raiders let him go, the Bills, undoubtedly remembering his performance against them, decided to give him a shot. He caught 7 passes for 89 yards in the season finale, but did little else all season, catching just 24 passes for 252 yards and a score. He’s a career journeyman who hasn’t had much success anywhere.

The 4th candidate is 3rd round rookie TJ Graham, who has an outside shot right now at both a starting job and a slot job, but he’ll probably end up working his way up the depth chart as the season goes along. He should start the year as the 5th receiver. He’s incredibly athletic, but incredibly raw with only one year of starting experience at wide receiver at the collegiate level. He’s also a deadly return man, but the Bills don’t seem to want to use him there, even as a rookie. CJ Spiller could also see some action at wide receiver, as they try to figure out creative ways to use their backup running back.

The Bills don’t use tight ends very often, but when they did last year, it was primarily Scott Chandler, who played just 533 snaps, primarily as a blocker. He’s a good run blocker and a solid receiver, who caught 38 passes for 389 yards and 6 touchdowns last season. He’s especially useful around the goal line at 6-7 263. The rest of their tight ends totaled just 256 snaps played.

The tight end position isn’t a position that Chan Gailey’s offense uses much as they prefer to spread it out and use multiple wide receivers. They also pass to the backs frequently, as Spiller and Jackson combined for 78 catches last year. The Bills do have multiple receivers, but only one who is above average, Steve Johnson. They do run the ball well and have a strong offensive line though and they should be a solid offensive squad, provided Fitzpatrick doesn’t get hurt or prove that his strong start to last year was a complete fluke. As long as they can protect him well, which they should be able to, he should be able to game manage this offense well.

Grade: B-

Defense

Even if the Bills aren’t improved offensively (which I think they will be), they’ll definitely be improved defensively. The Bills ranked 30th in the league last year, allowing 27.1 points per game. The biggest problem was that they couldn’t get to the quarterback at all, managing just 29 sacks. Only 2 teams had fewer and 9 of those 29 sacks came in one game against Washington’s terrible offensive line. No one had more than 6 sacks and only 3 players had more than 3 sacks. After the addition of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, that won’t be a problem in 2012.

The Bills also get back Kyle Williams from injury, one of the league’s best defensive linemen when healthy, and they might actually get something from Shawne Merriman, who missed most of last season with an Achilles injury after teasing Bills fans with a strong Preseason. On top of this, they have several young players who could make a major impact. This could actually be a pretty strong group this season.

Defensive Line

The Bills are moving to a full time 4-3 scheme this year. They get Kyle Williams back at defensive tackle and add Mario Williams and Mark Anderson at defensive end. Williams was ProFootballFocus’ #1 rated defensive tackle in 2010, over 16 points ahead of any other defensive tackle. In fact, only 4 defensive players finished the season with a higher rating than Williams did and they were all edge rushers. However, his 2011 season consisted of only 225 snaps before going down for the season with a broken foot week 5.

He’ll play inside at defensive tackle with Marcell Dareus and, barring a struggle adjusting to a pure 4-3 scheme from a hybrid, he should be one of the better defensive tackles in the league this season. Dareus could also be one of the best defensive tackles in the league this year. As a rookie, the 3rd overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft was ProFootballFocus’ 12th rated defensive tackle (he also played some 3-4 defensive end).

He played the run well and rusher the passer well and had 6 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 24 quarterback pressures on 407 pass rushes, good for an impressive 9.1% rate. He could be even better in his 2nd season in the league and the sky is the limit for this #3 overall pick. Spencer Johnson, who started in Williams’ absence last year and played pretty poorly, will provide depth, but won’t be needed much, barring injuries, which is a good thing.

Outside, the two big additions are Mario Williams and Anderson. Williams missed 11 games with injury last season, but the 2006 1st overall pick had missed a combined 3 games in 4 seasons before last year, so he should be pretty reliable. In 82 career games, he has 53 sacks and plays the run incredibly well, as you would expect out of a 6-6 292 pound defensive end.

Last year, he had 5 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 17 quarterback pressures on just 126 pass rush snaps, an incredible 19.0% rate. That’s obviously not sustainable over a whole season, but from 2008-2010 he had 33 sacks, 43 quarterback hits, and 102 quarterback pressures on 1537 pass rush snaps, good for a 11.6% rate that ranks among the league’s best over that time period. He was a top-15 defensive end on ProFootballFocus in each of those 3 seasons.

Opposite him, Mark Anderson is not quite as proven. He had 15 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures on 420 pass rush snaps last season, an incredible 13.6% rate, but in 5 years prior he managed just 25 sacks and only surpassed 5 sacks once, when he recorded 12 sacks as a rookie in 2006. He also wasn’t an every down end in New England last year and could get tired out and become less efficient in a larger role in Buffalo this year.

Still, after the season he just had, he was definitely worth the risk on a deal with only one year’s salary guaranteed (8 million). He’ll see plenty of single blocking with defenses forced to focus on Mario Williams, wherever he’s lined up (Williams could play defensive tackle on passing downs), and he could definitely have another 10+ sack season. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Bills had two pass rushers in double digits this year.

Another player who could be a significant addition to their pass rush is Shawne Merriman, who is competing for the nickel rusher job. Merriman has just 5 sacks in the last 4 seasons, but he had 40 sacks in 3 years from 2005-2007 in San Diego. He can’t seem to stay healthy, playing in just 23 games over the last 4 years, but he’s healthy now and reportedly putting on quite the show in practice. That was also the case last offseason, before he ended up getting hurt again, but he might be able to give them something as a situational player this year, though he definitely will never be his old self again.

If not, Chris Kelsay will probably be the nickel rusher. He was sadly one of their best pass rushers last season, but only by default as he had just 5 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures on 277 pass rush snaps, an 8.3% rate. He’s heading into his age 33 season so he’s not getting any better. It would obviously be better if Merriman could give them something this year, but Kelsay is adequate depth if needed.

With the additions of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, the return of Kyle Williams from injury, Marcell Dareus heading into his 3rd season, and Shawne Merriman possibly coming back, this defensive line could go from one of the worst in the league in 2011 to one of the best in 2012. They ranked 27th in the league allowing 4.8 YPC and only 2 teams had fewer sacks than their 29. They could have one of the highest sack totals in the league this season and they could be one of the best run defense teams as well.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The Bills are switching from a hybrid 3-4/4-3 scheme to a pure 4-3 scheme so their linebacking corps will look a little different. Nick Barnett will remain an every down linebacker, only he’ll play 4-3 outside linebacker rather than 3-4 middle linebacker. He’s an above average starter, but he’s heading into his age 31 season and he’s spent the last few seasons in a 3-4 in Green Bay and Buffalo. Still, he should be a solid player in coverage and against the run once again.

Kelvin Sheppard will remain in the middle and play an every down role this season, unlike last season. The 2011 3rd round pick has slimmed down about 10-15 pounds in order to drop into coverage better, something he struggled with last season. He admits he was out of shape last season, but still played very well, especially as a run stuffer.  He managed 70 tackles (46 solo, 24 assisted) last season and ranked 21st among all middle linebackers on ProFootballFocus against the run, despite only playing 442 snaps.

Sheppard was even better in his final 9 games, where he had 59 of his 70 tackles, despite still only playing in 369 of his team’s 592 snaps over that period. Perhaps most impressive, Sheppard only missed 1 tackle, fewest among eligible middle linebackers. He could have a breakout season in 2012 as an every down linebacker now that he’s back in shape.

Kirk Morrison will be the 3rd linebacker and only play two-downs and come out in two-linebacker sets. He barely played at all last year, playing just 60 snaps. He wasn’t hurt or anything, but the Bills’ coaching staff just really didn’t like the way he fit in their 3-4 defense. Back in a 4-3, which he played in for the rest of his career before last season, he should become a decent starter once again. He’ll only really need to stop the run, something he used to be one of the best in the league at doing. He ranked 24th in 2010, 4th in 2009, and 5th in 2008 against the run on ProFootballFocus among middle linebackers. That shouldn’t change now that he’s playing outside. This is a solid group of linebackers.

Grade: B

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Secondary

One of the biggest reasons that the Bills couldn’t stop anyone was because they allowed 7.7 YPA, 25th in the league. A much improved pass rush will really help, but they did need to upgrade their talent in the secondary as well. With that in mind, the Bills used the 10th overall pick on a cornerback, Stephon Gilmore. Gilmore has immediately been inserted into the starting lineup and many people have raved about his performance in the offseason, but defensive backs normally take a year or two to adjust to the NFL. Even Patrick Peterson struggled mightily in coverage as a mere rookie last season. He will be helped by their strong pass rush.

Starting opposite him will be Aaron Williams, a 2011 2nd round pick. Williams struggled in coverage in a limited role last season, allowing 22 completions on 39 attempts (59.5%) for 356 yards (9.1 YPA), 5 touchdowns and 1 interception, while deflecting 3 passes and committing 4 penalties. His QB rating allowed was 4th worst in the NFL (120.0). However, he was just a rookie so you can’t really hold that against him. He finished the season in the starting lineup in place of an injured Leodis McKelvin and will start this season there.

With two young and highly drafted cornerbacks, the future looks bright at cornerback and, while they’re young, they should be an upgrade over Drayton Florence and Leodis McKelvin, the starters last season. McKelvin allowed 27 completions on 45 attempts (60.0%) for 455 yards (10.1 YPA), 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, while deflecting 7 passes and committing 1 penalty. Florence meanwhile, ranked 89th out of 98 cornerbacks on ProFootballFocus, allowing 44 completions on 73 attempts (60.3%) for 714 yards (9.8 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 9 penalties. With a better pass rush, they should be an average team against the pass this season.

Florence is gone, while McKelvin will compete with 3 other guys for the nickel cornerback job. McKelvin, a bust as the 11th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, will compete with Terence McGee, who is heading into his age 32 season and coming off an injury plagued season in which he barely played, Justin Rogers, a 2011 7th round pick who is impressing this offseason, and Ron Brooks, a 4th round rookie. Rogers is considered the favorite right now, while either of the two veterans, McKelvin and McGee, could be cut if that happens because they make the most money. Brooks’ roster spot is obviously safe as a 4th round rookie. Rogers may be impressing this offseason, but he’s still inexperienced, playing just 216 snaps as a rookie last year.

At safety, things are better looking, thanks to Jairus Byrd, one of the league’s best safeties and most underrated players. Byrd, a 2009 2nd round pick, was ProFootballFocus’ 3rd ranked safety last season, playing the run well and covering well. He’s improved in every season of his career according to his ProFootballFocus rating and now is a complete safety, rather than just a pure ball hawk which he was in 2009, when he had 9 interceptions. Opposite him is George Wilson, a solid starter who is better against the run than in coverage and who is heading into his age 31 season. There’s a lot of talent on this defense, a lot more than last season and this should be a much improved unit from last season to this season for many reasons.

Grade: B-

Head Coach

Chan Gailey hasn’t had a lot of success with the Bills, going 10-22 in the last 2 seasons, but then again, no one has had success with the Bills recently as they haven’t made the playoffs since 1999, the longest streak in the NFL. He does look poised to take them to the playoffs sometime soon, possibly even this season, and he went 18-14 in 2 seasons with the Cowboys in the late 90s. He also has a 68-41 record at the collegiate level as a Head Coach.

Grade: B-

Overall

Every year there’s one team who makes it to the playoffs on the strength of a strong running game and defense, a game managing quarterback, and a weak schedule. Last year it was the 49ers and the Bengals. In 2010, it was the Chiefs and to some extent the Jets. In 2009, it was the Jets again, etc. The Bills have the look of that type of team this season.

They have a much improved defense with one of the league’s best defensive lines, two legitimate starting running backs, and a very strong offensive line that will give Ryan Fitzpatrick the time he needs to game manage this offense to success. Barring any major injuries or complete regression by Fitzpatrick, they will be in the playoff race and I have them making it, sneaking in from the inferior AFC, and snapping a 12 season non-playoff streak.

The schedule is a big part of it too. They rank tied for 3rd in terms of easiest schedule in 2012, based on opponent’s 2011 records. They play just 4 games against teams I have making the playoffs as they face the NFC West and AFC South, in addition to their own pretty easy division. Outside of those 3 divisions, they also face Kansas City and Cleveland.

Aside from New England, their divisional schedule is not hard. They could go 4-2 or 3-3 in the division. Outside of the division, they host Kansas City, Tennessee, St. Louis, Jacksonville, and Seattle. The best two teams in that bunch might be St. Louis and Seattle, who struggle on the road. Tennessee is a big unknown this season because we don’t know who their quarterback will be and how he’ll play. They could take 4 of those games. Their other 5 games send them to Cleveland, San Francisco, Arizona, Houston, and Indianapolis. I have 3 of those teams winning 6 or fewer games so even though they’re road games, they could take 2 or 3 of them. I have the Bills at 10-6.

Projection: 10-6 2nd in AFC East

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4 way competition for Bills nickel cornerback job

stevenlourie Bills, News

According to BuffaloBills.com, there is a 4 way competition for the Bills’ nickel cornerback job this offseason with 2012 1st round Stephon Gilmore and 2011 2nd round pick Aaron Williams expected to start outside at cornerback. The 4 players competing are Terrence McGee, Justin Rogers, Ron Brooks, Leodis McKelvin. McGee is entering his age 32 season and restructured to a 2 year, 4 million dollar deal earlier this offseason, after missing most of last season with injury. Brooks is a 4th round rookie. McKelvin is a former 1st round pick bust of the 2008 NFL Draft. Rogers was a 7th round pick in 2011.

The Bills’ website says Rogers is currently the favorite, but it looks pretty wide open right now. With 4 guys competing for 1 job, it’s very likely that the Bills will also cut 1 or 2 of the competitors in final cuts as no one carries 6 cornerbacks. Brooks is unlikely to be cut as he was just drafted and Rogers appears to lead the competition right now, so McGee and McKelvin would appear to be the ones on the roster bubble.

Though McGee was just restructured earlier this offseason, he’s old and injury prone and only received a 300 thousand dollar signing bonus. McKelvin, meanwhile, is heading into his contract year and has never lived up to being the 11th overall pick in 2008. The regime that drafted him is gone so they no longer have loyalty to him. My money is on Rogers winning the nickel job, McKelvin staying as a dime back, and the rookie Brooks playing just special teams for this year, leaving McGee as the odd man out.

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