Broncos

Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (6-3) at New Orleans Saints (4-4)

This line has shifted significantly in the past week, as the Broncos were favored by a point on the early line, but are now 3 point road favorites in New Orleans. It’s a somewhat understandable line movement. The Saints have won 4 of 5 after a 0-3 start, including a 41-23 victory in San Francisco last week, while the Broncos have lost 3 of 5 since a 4-0 start, including a 30-20 loss in Oakland last week. On top of that, the Saints got back key defenders Delvin Breaux and Sheldon Rankins from injury last week, while the Broncos are without key defenders Derek Wolfe and Aqib Talib this week.

That being said, that’s still a very large line movement, as about 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, and I’m not sure it’s completely warranted. This line suggests these two teams are about even, which I don’t think is quite true. The Broncos enter this game still in 6th in first down rate differential, while the Saints enter in 13th. Injury situations aside, the Broncos are still the better team right now. The Broncos are also in a much better spot, as the Saints have to turn around and go to Carolina next week on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 50-80 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football.

The Broncos, meanwhile, are in a great spot in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 135-103 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 107-71 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 227-244 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.86 points per game, as opposed to 326-456 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.02 points per game. The Broncos are worth a bet if you can get the full field goal. The moneyline is also a good bet, as this game is a toss up at worst for the visiting Broncos.

Denver Broncos 24 New Orleans Saints 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Denver +3

Confidence: Medium

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Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (6-2)

The Raiders are 6-2, but they’ve been one of the most disappointing teams in the league in my opinion. Stacked with young talent and coming off of an off-season in which they had a ton of cap space and added a lot of talent in free agency, I had the Raiders finishing 2nd in the AFC before the season started. They enter this game tied for the 2nd seed with the visiting Denver Broncos, but 5 of their 6 wins have come by 7 points or fewer. They also enter this game just 27th in first down percentage differential, thanks in large part to a defense that is allowing the 7th highest first down percentage in the league. They’re far more talented than that suggests, especially on defense, as they’re one of the most well-rounded teams in the league on paper, but they have not played up to their talent level thus far this season. Somehow, despite an infusion of talent in free agency, their defense has been worse in 2016 than in 2015.

This would be a good time for them to start doing that, as this game could end up deciding the division and possibly even a first round bye. The Broncos have exceeded my expectations a little bit this season, as their offense has looked good at times and their defense has remained one of the best in the league, despite off-season losses of Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan and an injury to DeMarcus Ware. They enter this game 2nd in first down percentage differential. Their defense will be tested in a big way this week though, with starting cornerback Aqib Talib out with a back injury. He’s been one of the best cornerbacks in the league this season. If the Raiders play like they can on both sides of the ball, not just on offense, they should be able to win this game at home. Given that, the Raiders are the pick here as mere 1 point home favorites, but I’m not confident enough in them right now to put money on them.

Oakland Raiders 20 Denver Broncos 16

Pick against the spread: Oakland -1

Confidence: Low

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San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (3-4) at Denver Broncos (5-2)

Last week, the Broncos were 7 point home favorites over the Chargers on the early line, but the line has since moved to just 4 in favor of the Broncos at home. Ordinarily, I love to fade significant week-to-week line movement, but the Chargers have just 4 losses by more than 7 points in the past 2 seasons, so we would have been getting incredible line value with the Chargers at 7. The Chargers are just 7-16 over the past 2 seasons, but that’s largely the result of a 4-12 record in games decided by a 7 points or fewer. Last week, they finally won a close game, knocking off a good Falcons team in overtime in Atlanta. That pushed their record on the season to 3-4, but they’ve been better than their record, as they enter this game 8th in first down percentage differential; their biggest loss this season was a 6 point overtime loss in Kansas City, a game in which they blew a 21-0 lead. Their other 3 losses came by 4 points or fewer.

The Chargers have had a lot of injuries this season, most notably losing running back Danny Woodhead, wide receiver Keenan Allen, and cornerback Jason Verrett for the season with injury, but they have continued to play well. Verrett’s absence has been offset by the emergence of #3 overall pick Joey Bosa, who has been one of the most disruptive defenders in the league since returning from a 4-game absence to start the season. Meanwhile, youngsters Melvin Gordon and Tyrell Williams have stepped up big-time on offense, while veteran quarterback Philip Rivers continues to play at a high level. This week, they get cornerback Brandon Flowers back from a 4-week absence with a concussion, a big boost for this secondary.

The Broncos are 2nd in that first down percentage differential, but they have had inconsistent quarterback play. On top of that, San Diego is 9-3 ATS on the road in the past 2 seasons. The Chargers could be tired coming off of that huge upset overtime victory in Atlanta, but teams actually do well the week after an upset road overtime victory, going 57-44 in that spot since 1989. This line is right where it should be at 4, so I can’t take San Diego with any confidence, but they’re the pick here in pick ‘em leagues.

Denver Broncos 20 San Diego Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: San Diego +4

Confidence: None

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Houston Texans at Denver Broncos: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (4-2) at Denver Broncos (4-2)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, this line has for some reason gotten higher in favor of Denver in the past week, climbing from 6.5 to 9, even though the Texans won at home against the Colts and the Broncos lost on the road to the Chargers. Nine points is a lot of points to give with a team like Denver whose offense has disappeared in the past 2 weeks, causing the Broncos to drop back-to-back games after an impressive 4-0 start.

Ordinarily, 2 bad games after 4 good ones wouldn’t be a reason for concern, especially considering one of those games was started by a backup quarterback, but the Broncos struggled mightily on offense all last season and needed to pull off a lot of close victories to not just win the Super Bowl, but even get into the playoffs. They won just 3 regular season games by more than 7 points all last season. They’ve already won 3 games by more than 7 points this this season, but their recent offensive skid is cause for concern. Trevor Siemian is an underwhelming talent and inexperienced starter at quarterback and the league may be figuring him out. Their issues go beyond the quarterback position, as their running game and offensive line have really struggled in the past 2 weeks and they lack a capable 3rd receiver in the passing game.

On the other hand, it’s hard to argue that the Broncos are not still a tough opponent, particularly at home, given how good their defense is. The Texans are not as good as their 4-2 record suggests as their 4 wins have come at home by a combined 26 points against the likes of Tennessee, Kansas City, Indianapolis, and Chicago and they’ve gotten crushed in their two road games against tough opponents, losing by 27 in New England (who was playing a 3rd string quarterback) and 18 in Minnesota. They rank just 18th in first down percentage differential and are even less talented than that suggests because they’re without top defender JJ Watt for the season. I’m taking the Texans, but I can’t be confident at all.

Denver Broncos 17 Houston Texans 9

Pick against the spread: Houston +9

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (4-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-4)

Going into the season, I had the Chargers on my underrated list. They went 4-12 in 2015, but that was largely a result of bad injury luck and a poor record in close games (3-9 in games decided by 8 points or fewer). Both of those things tend to even out in the long run, which is why I expected significantly more wins for them this season, but they haven’t evened out so far for the Chargers. The Chargers are 1-4 despite a +10 point differential and a +2.04% first down percentage differential (11th in the NFL), as all 4 of their losses have come by 6 points or fewer, while their lone win came by 24 points week 2 against the Jaguars.

The Chargers are legitimately a few plays away from being 4-1 or even 5-0, but blew late leads to Kansas City, Indianapolis, and New Orleans. Meanwhile, they’ve also lost top wide receiver Keenan Allen, talented passing down back Danny Woodhead, slot wide receiver Steve Johnson, and top cornerback Jason Verrett for the season with injuries, while cornerback Brandon Flowers is expected to miss his 3rd straight game with a concussion. The Chargers’ record in close games should still even out in the long run and they should still win more games this season than they did last season, but there’s no denying the amount of talent the Chargers are missing with injury.

The Broncos are a much more talented team and were 4-0 going into last week, prior to a disappointing 23-16 home loss last week against the Atlanta Falcons. Despite that loss, they actually still rank 1st in the NFL in first down percentage differential at 5.98%. Their defense played well against the Falcons all things considered, as the Falcons rank #1 in the NFL in first down percentage, but had just an average offensive performance against the Broncos. On the season, the Broncos are 7th in the NFL in first down percentage allowed, despite facing some tough offenses thus far (Carolina, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Atlanta).

The offense was the problem for them, as they struggled to move the ball all day, despite being at home and facing a mediocre at best Atlanta defense. The Broncos still rank 9th in the NFL in first down percentage though and get quarterback Trevor Siemian back from injury this week, after he missed last week’s start with an injured shoulder. In Siemian’s absence, first round rookie Paxton Lynch looked overmatched and not nearly ready to be an NFL quarterback. Lynch might have more long-term upside than Siemian, but Siemian has been a more than serviceable quarterback through the early part of the season. The underwhelming offensive performance last week is cause for concern, especially considering how stagnant their offense was for most of last season, but Siemian is better than either of the quarterbacks they had last season and the offensive line and running game have been better as well.

More concerning is the fact that head coach Gary Kubiak will miss this game with migraine issues. It’s unclear how the team will handle his absence, which makes the Broncos a much riskier bet. The health of Siemian’s shoulder just a week and a half after the injury is also a risk. Talent wise, the Broncos should be able to win this game pretty easily, as the Chargers have no homefield advantage (6-12 ATS at home since 2014), but I wouldn’t bet on them unless I could get lower than 3, which seems unlikely. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so I can’t be confident in Denver at 3.5.

Denver Broncos 23 San Diego Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: Denver -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (3-1) at Denver Broncos (4-0)

The Broncos were on my overrated teams list before the season, but they’ve proven me wrong thus far this season. After winning just 4 total games by more than a touchdown last season (including playoffs), I said the Broncos would have to play better this season to win 12 games and the division again, because they wouldn’t be able to rely on winning close games. The Broncos have done just that, winning their last 3 straight games all by 10 points or more. Their +47 point differential is 2nd best in the league and they also rank 2nd in first down percentage differential.

First year starting quarterback Trevor Siemian has played significantly better than either Peyton Manning or Brock Osweiler did last season, while the offensive line and running game look much better in the 2nd year of Gary Kubiak’s offense. They rank 3rd in the NFL in first down percentage, after being one of the worst teams in the league in that category last season. On defense, they’ve played just as well as last season, despite the off-season loss of defensive end Malik Jackson and middle linebacker Danny Trevathan. They rank 7th in first down percentage allowed, despite facing the Panthers, Colts, and Bengals, three strong offenses.

The Falcons have also exceeded expectations, starting 3-1 with wins over legitimate playoff contenders Oakland and Carolina (the former is 3-1, while the latter is 1-3 and has played better than that suggests). Their defense has been one of the worst in the league (31st in first down percentage allowed), but their offense ranks first in first down percentage, carrying this team. They might not have the best offense in the league all season and their defense is one of the least talented in the league and figures to continue struggling, but it appears the Falcons will be a playoff contender and a tough opponent all season.

Last week’s 48-33 home victory over the Carolina Panthers was easily their most impressive performance of the season, as they were winning big even before Carolina quarterback Cam Newton got knocked out with a concussion. However, they may have trouble following that up, as teams are 52-75 ATS since 2012 off of a win as home underdogs. That’s likely because teams are overconfident and overvalued off of a big home win like that. I can’t say for sure they’re overconfident, but they seem overvalued as mere 4 point underdogs in Denver. That line suggests the Broncos are only about a point better than the Falcons on a neutral field, which is not true. The Falcons have a strong offense, but the Broncos are a much more complete team.

There are two reasons why I’m not confident enough to put money on Denver though. One is the fact that they have to turn around and go to San Diego for Thursday Night Football next week. The Chargers are far from a tough opponent, but having to play 2 games in 5 days is always tough for teams. In fact, favorites are 50-74 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. The second reason is the injury to quarterback Trevor Siemian, who will miss this game with a bad shoulder. Siemian is one of the reasons why they’ve been as good as they have been offensively thus far this season, even on a run first team. Instead, first round pick Paxton Lynch will start. He didn’t look bad last week in relief of Siemian and actually might have more long-term upside than Siemian, but he came into the league very raw and this is probably earlier than they’d like him to play. He gets a very easy defense to start his career though and the Broncos should be the right side.

Denver Broncos 24 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: Denver -4

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (3-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against significant week-to-week line movements. In this game, the Buccaneers were 1.5 point home underdogs last week on the early line, but now are 3 point home underdogs. That’s significant because 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal or less. It’s understandable why the line moved. While the Broncos got an upset victory in Cincinnati, the Buccaneers lost at home to the Rams. The Broncos win was impressive and they’ve actually been very impressive as a team this year, more so than last year when they relied on many close victories to get to the Super Bowl.

Their offense has been much improved through 3 games, as Trevor Siemian has been an upgrade over both Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler, while running back CJ Anderson and the Broncos’ offensive line are both playing much better in their second year in head coach Gary Kubiak’s system. The defense isn’t quite as good without Malik Jackson, Danny Trevathan, and now DeMarcus Ware, who is injured, but they’ve done a good job of keeping a trio of solid offenses in check, Carolina, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati. They’re a more talented team than they were a year ago.

However, this line might still be a little bit too high, as the Buccaneers’ home loss last week was not as bad as it seemed. In fact, they won the first down battle by 12 against the Rams and moved the chains at a significantly better rate (79.07% to 73.33%). Despite that, the public is all over the Buccaneers and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because they always lose money in the long run. The Buccaneers are not a great team and I couldn’t be confident in them at all, especially without top pass rusher Robert Ayers, but I would pick the points here if I had to, as long as you get the full field goal. Less than a field goal, I think I would actually change my pick. There’s also a very good chance this one pushes. A field goal Denver win seems like a strong possibility.

Denver Broncos 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (2-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)

These two teams have had opposite starts to the season schedule wise. While the Broncos were home for their first 2 games, the Cincinnati opened the season on the road against the Jets and Steelers. That hurts Cincinnati’s chances here in this week 3 matchup, as they’ve had to travel much more than their opponents. Teams are 24-46 ATS since 1989 in a week 3 home opener, while teams that start the season with back-to-back home games are 42-30 ATS in their first road game of the season week 3. Combining the two, teams are just 3-10 ATS a week 3 home opener if their opponent opened the season with back-to-back home games.

On top of that, the Bengals have to turn around and play a Thursday Night game in 4 days after this game, with the Miami Dolphins coming to town. Favorites are just 50-71 ATS before Thursday Night Football, since 2008, as upcoming short weeks like that tend to be a distraction for teams. Despite all of this and the fact that close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, the Bengals are favored by 3.5 points here against a team that’s at least comparable in talent to them, if not better. It’s worth putting money on 3.5 because this could easily be a field goal game, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Broncos won straight up here.

Cincinnati Bengals 17 Denver Broncos 16

Pick against the spread: Denver +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0)

Coming into the season, I thought the Colts were one of the most overrated teams in the league. They get Andrew Luck back after an 8-8 2015 season, but their passing offense wasn’t the problem last season, as Matt Hasselbeck was serviceable until the last couple weeks of the season and actually outplayed Luck statistically. Their defense took a step back from the season before and they struggled mightily running the ball and protecting the quarterback. Their running backs and offensive line remain a problem and the defense could take another step back. They lost top linebacker Jerrell Freeman in free agency and have the oldest defense in the league, which looks like one of the worst in the league on paper, especially with Trent Cole, Henry Anderson, Patrick Robinson, and Vontae Davis all out with injuries. Luck’s obviously a big re-addition, but it’s probably not enough for this team to get back to the playoffs.

However, I also thought the Broncos were overrated coming into the season. They finished last regular season just 11th in rate of moving the chains differential and might not have even made the playoffs if not for an unsustainably good record in games decided by a touchdown or less, 9-3. This off-season, they lost two defensive starters in Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan, who were not replaced, as well as talented guard Evan Mathis. They’re starting a 2nd year 7th rookie pick at quarterback, one of the least qualified week 1 starting quarterbacks in years, and have underwhelming talent around him on offense, especially with Demaryius Thomas dealing with a limiting hip injury. Even if they do win here, it could easily be another close game for a team who has won 12 of their last 16 wins by 7 points or fewer (including last post-season), relevant considering this line is 6.5. That seems way too high to me, even with the Colts banged up.

The Broncos won last week at home against a tough Carolina team and looked good doing it, but easily could have lost if not for a missed field goal at the end of the game (or if not for a timely Gary Kubiak timeout, which forced Graham Gano to re-kick after making the first one). Besides, defending Super Bowl champions tend to do well week 1. In the last 10 instances, Super Bowl Champions who open at home on a Thursday Night are 8-1-1 ATS, but the previous 9 teams are just 2-7 ATS the following week. Opening as Super Bowl champions is a very emotional game, so it makes sense teams would play well, but it’s also hard to carry that kind of performance into the following week.

Teams are also 48-74 ATS since 2012 off of a win as home underdogs. Teams tend to be overconfident and overvalued off of a big home win against a superior opponent. At the very least, the Broncos are overvalued here at 6.5, especially considering this line was at just 3.5 a week ago. I think a line of 4 or so would have much more appropriate. The Broncos also have a tougher opponent next week, as they head to Cincinnati, while the Colts host the Chargers. Underdogs are 80-56 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. Coming off an emotional, close win, the Broncos could easily not be focused for an inferior opponent, especially with another tough game on deck, while the Colts figure to be focused, facing the defending champions, with an easier home game on deck. I think it’s very unlikely that the Broncos win by more than 7. I’ll take 6.5 if I have to, but it’d be a bigger play at 7. The money line at +230 is also a good value if you like to take bigger risks.

Denver Broncos 23 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)

The 2016 NFL season starts exactly the same way the 2015 NFL season ended, with the Panthers facing the Broncos. Unlike last year, this is not the Super Bowl, but this game still could have major playoff implications and it’s an early litmus test for both of these teams to see how good they actually are, or are not. In last year’s neutral site Super Bowl, I chose the Panthers as 4.5 point favorites. Even though they lost, they actually moved the ball better than the Broncos did in that game. The Broncos obviously had the splash plays that won the game, but they had more 3rd down failures (13) than first downs (11), moving the chains at a 48.00% rate, as opposed to 62.48% for the Panthers. The Broncos won the league’s ultimate prize, but if that game were played 100 times the Panthers likely would have won more often than the Broncos.

That theory will be put to the test a little bit more this week, with the Panthers now visiting the Broncos. Of course, these are not the same teams as last season. The Panthers lost #1 cornerback Josh Norman in free agency and need Cam Newton to continue playing at the level he played at last season, even though last season was easily the best of his career. He’ll have top receiver Kelvin Benjamin back, but the Panthers are unlikely to be as good as they were last season.

The same is very much true of the Broncos, who lost talented defensive starters Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan on defense and Evan Mathis on offense and did little to replace any of them. They’ll also be starting a 2015 7th round pick who has never thrown a pass in his career at quarterback in Trevor Siemian. Neither of their quarterbacks played well last season, but Siemian is as unqualified as week 1 starters come and could be even worse than both Osweiler and Manning. Both teams lost talent this off-season, but the Broncos had the worse off-season.

On top of that, the Panthers, despite how the season ended, played a lot better than the Broncos did overall last season. They won 10 games (including the post-season) by more than a touchdown last season, while the Broncos won just 4. In fact, the Broncos went 11-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less, including a 3-0 record in overtime. If a few things had gone differently, they might not have even made the playoffs, let alone won the Super Bowl. In order to finish 12-4 again, the Broncos are likely going to have to be significantly better this season, which doesn’t seem likely considering all they did was lose talent this off-season.

The Panthers are unlikely to win 15 games again, but who does? They still figure to be one of the best teams in the league, while Denver could easily struggle to make the playoffs. The Panthers finished last season 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Broncos finished 11th. That gap could easily be even wider this season. I don’t mind laying the field goal with the Panthers here on the road. There’s not quite enough for me to put money on this, especially since the Panthers are a heavily public backed road favorite in a nationally televised game against an opponent who is getting their Super Bowl rings, but the Panthers are the pick here.

Carolina Panthers 20 Denver Broncos 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -3

Confidence: Low

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