Broncos

Denver Broncos sign S TJ Ward

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

This is an absolute steal. TJ Ward definitely took less money to join a contender in Denver because there’s no way 23 million over 4 years was the best offer Ward could get. He got 5 million dollars less over 4 years than Donte Whitner did to take Ward’s old spot in Cleveland. Jairus Byrd, meanwhile, got more guaranteed money (28 million) than Ward got total money, not to mention a 9 million dollar annual salary over 6 years. And neither of those deals were that bad.

Ward will slot in at strong safety next to Rahim Moore and be a massive upgrade at a position of need. He’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd and 6th ranked safety in 2012 and 2013 respectively, the only safety in the NFL to finish top-6 both seasons. He was also 13th in 2011, despite missing 8 games with injury. That was really his only injury plagued season as he missed 2 games in his other 3 seasons combined, playing 54 games in 4 seasons, starting each of them and grading out above average on Pro Football Focus in all 4 seasons since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2010. This is a great move.

Grade: A

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Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks: Super Bowl XLVIII Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, Broncos, Seahawks, Super Bowl XLVIII Pick, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (15-3) vs Seattle Seahawks (15-3) at MetLife Stadium

The big matchup in this game is Denver’s offense vs. Seattle’s defense. Because the media loves hyperbole, the Broncos’ offense is being billed as one of the top offenses of all time, while the Seahawks’ defense is being billed as one of the top defenses of all time. Only one half of that hyperbolic statement is accurate. The Broncos are one of the greatest offenses of all time. It can be tough to compare across eras, but they’ve scored the most points in a single season in NFL history. The Seahawks ranked #1 in points allowed this season, allowing 14.4 points per game, but I don’t think they’re in all-time great territory. There’s some team that allows that few points pretty much every season.

The Seahawks might not even be the best defense in the NFL. Points per game allowed isn’t the end all of defensive statistics. I feel the statistic rate of moving the chains allowed is the best way to determine how good a defense (or an offense) has played because the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). It also does a good job of lessening the value of inconsistent things like turnovers and return touchdowns.

The Seahawks finished the regular season 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential allowed at 66.29%, very good, but hardly all-time great status like the Broncos’ offense. After two playoff games, the Seahawks are now at 66.73% in terms of rate of moving the chains allowed, which makes sense because teams’ schedules obviously get tougher in the playoffs.

The Broncos, meanwhile, finished the regular season, first, by far, moving the chains at an 81.09% rate. However, after two playoff games, that number is even higher, as they are now moving the chains at an 81.62% rate. They’ve punted just once in two playoff games. Granted, they haven’t played tough defenses in either game, but that’s still incredibly impressive. The Seahawks can slow them, but they won’t be able to stop them. I think Richard Sherman has a good chance to shut down one side of the field (contrary to popular belief he doesn’t shadow #1 receivers and will not shadow Demaryius Thomas in this game), but Peyton Manning has plenty of other weapons and he knows how to use them. The Broncos will probably be in the 20-27 point range so the Seahawks will have to keep up.

Can the Seahawks keep up? Well, the Broncos defense is not nearly as good as their offense. The Broncos finished the regular season 20th in rate of moving the chains against, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 71.86% rate and now they are at 72.24%. The Seahawks, meanwhile, finished the regular season 13th in rate of moving the chains, moving the chains at a 72.35% rate, and now they are at 71.64%. They’re not a great offense, but they’ll be able to move the chains on this defense, especially with Percy Harvin back for the Seahawks and Von Miller and now Chris Harris out for the season for the Broncos.

In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, the Broncos are at 9.38%, including playoffs, while the Seahawks are at 4.91%. That suggests this line should be around 4.5 in favor of Denver instead of 2. Why are the Broncos significantly better than the Seahawks in this category in spite of their identical records? Well the Seahawks have been much more reliant on winning the turnover battle as they are +23 on the season, including playoffs, while the Broncos are -2. Winning the turnover battle tends to be a tough thing to do on a consistent basis, so the fact that the Broncos have been able to win without winning the turnover battle, while the Seahawks have had more issues doing so works in Denver’s favor. Seattle is going to find it much harder to pick off Peyton Manning than any other quarterback in the league anyway.

That being said, I’m not crazy about Denver for two reasons. One is that aforementioned injury situation with Harvin, Miller, and Harris. Two, rate of moving the chains differential doesn’t take into account strength of schedule and the Seahawks have had the much tougher schedule this season. The Seahawks finished the regular season with a 17th ranked strength of schedule, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, while the Broncos finished with a 31st ranked strength of schedule. The Broncos also played two easier playoff games than the Seahawks, coming out of the easier AFC. I hate not having a confident pick for the Super Bowl, because obviously it’s the biggest game of the year, but I’m only a little bit confident in the Broncos.

Denver Broncos 24 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against spread: Denver -2

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 2013 AFC Championship Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Conference Championship NFL Picks, 2013 NFL Picks, Broncos, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (13-4) at Denver Broncos (14-3)

One of the keys to successful handicapping of NFL games is to figure out which situations certain teams tend to do well in. This is easier when the team has had the same quarterback and/or head coach for a long time. Well we’re in year 13 of Tom Brady and this is exactly the type of situation in which the Patriots have dominated in the Tom Brady era. In his career, Tom Brady is 28-11 straight up against opponents with a better record than his, including 6-1 in the post-season.

Just think about that. Teams usually win 38.5% against teams with a better record than the other one. Tom Brady has won 71.8% of such games. Against the spread, he’s even better, going 29-9-1 ATS, including 18-5 ATS as underdogs. Brady and Belichick always bring their best for the best opponents and they’ll do the same this week. He’s already won straight up against Denver and New Orleans this year in this situation. This game will be tougher to win because it’s on the road, but we have 6 points to play with so they won’t need to win to cover.

The Patriots also dominate as an underdog in general with Tom Brady, going 30-15 ATS. That record gets even better when you add in games when the Patriots are favored by fewer than 3 points. Tom Brady is 42-17 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points in his career. Basically, in situations when Tom Brady just needs to win to cover, he’s almost automatic, which makes sense considering his absurd 166-50 career straight up record. And again, the Patriots won’t need to win to cover as they are 6 point underdogs. This is just the 10th time the Patriots have underdogs of 6 or more points with Tom Brady under center and the 2nd since 2003. They are 7-2 ATS in those previous 9 games.

I also have to bring up the Brady/Manning history as we go into Brady/Manning XV. Tom Brady has won 10 of the previous 14 matchups. That alone isn’t enough to prove that Tom Brady is the better quarterback (and can we stop the debate and just enjoy, they’re both 1st ballot Hall of Famers and you can’t prove definitively either one is better), but it’s worth noting. Having Bill Belichick on his side definitely helps. Belichick himself is 11-6 ATS and SU against Peyton Manning since taking over as the Patriots head coach in 2000, including 8-2 ATS as underdogs.

It’s also worth noting that Belichick has only once lost to Manning by more than 8 points, including 3 games without Brady. The Patriots in general have just 1 loss by more than 8 points since week 10 of the 2010 season, over 3 years ago. Considering this line is at 6, that’s pretty relevant. I obviously wish we were getting even more points, but I expect this to be a close game either way so getting 6 points is very valuable. Another weird trend that benefits the Patriots: teams with 12+ wins are 39-11 ATS in the playoffs against teams with better record than them.

There are some reasons to doubt the Patriots. In general, teams tend to struggle off of games in which they score 40+ points in the playoffs, going 3-14 ATS in that situation since 2002. The Patriots could be caught overconfident after running over Indianapolis last week. The Broncos have also won 7 of 9 games at home by double digits this year and are 12-5 ATS as home favorites over the past 2 seasons. Sure, the Chargers played within 7 points last week, but they didn’t really deserve to. Playing the Broncos close in Denver might be too big of a task, even for the Patriots.

Denver, of course, is also a very dominant football team. In fact, there’s still plenty of reason to believe they are the best in the NFL.  They move the chains at an 81.43% rate, as opposed to 71.84% for their opponents, a differential of 9.59% that not only ranks the best in the NFL out of the remaining 4 playoff teams, but also is better than any team that has been eliminated as well. I still think the Patriots are up to the challenge though and they have plenty supporting them, given their history in these types of situations. I’m very confident in the Patriots and grab them at +6 before you can’t. A heavy early public lean on New England is going to push the line down fast and already has started to in some places.

New England Patriots 31 Denver Broncos 30 Upset Pick +195

Pick against spread: New England +6

Confidence: High

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San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2013 AFC Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2013 Divisional Round NFL Picks, 2013 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (10-7) at Denver Broncos (13-3)

This is one I’m completely torn on. On one hand, the Chargers are in the better spot. The Broncos could be overconfident because they’re at home coming off of a bye. Teams are 14-22 ATS since 2003 as home favorites after a 1st round bye in the post-season, including 8-14 ATS off of a week 17 win. With a week off, the Broncos may have one eye on the AFC Championship Game and a potential rematch with the Patriots.

Patriots/Broncos and Seahawks/49ers seem to be the consensus AFC/NFC Championship Games right now as you can see from the NFL Superbowl Lines. We all know how seldom the consensus is right in the post-season. It might not be a bad idea to bet against all 4 of those teams. I’m thinking at least 3 of their opponents cover. The Chargers, meanwhile, are in a good spot as teams are 10-3 ATS as underdogs off of a road playoff win since 2005. Not only that, but they are 8-5 straight up despite being underdogs all 13 times. We’ve seen so many teams go on runs from the Wild Card round after winning on the road before. That could make the Chargers dangerous.

The Chargers have also been infrequently blown out this year, with just 1 loss by more than 8 points and no losses by more than 10 (that 10 point loss was somehow to the Raiders). That’s relevant with the line at 9 points. However, on the other hand, they lost by 8 at home to the Broncos, so why couldn’t they lose by double digits in Denver? Sure, they won in Denver a few weeks ago, but in spite of that, it’s definitely arguable that the Broncos are the best team in the NFL so if anyone is going to blow out the Chargers, it’s them.

The Broncos rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at an 81.09% rate, as opposed to 71.86% for their opponents, a differential of 9.23%. The Chargers, meanwhile, rank 10th, moving the chains at a 77.88% rate, as opposed to 75.24% for their opponents, a differential of 2.64%. That suggests that this line should be around 9.5. That doesn’t give us much line value with the Broncos, but it’s worth noting.

The Broncos are definitely capable of blowing out the Chargers, in spite of the Chargers’ lack of blowout losses this season. The Broncos have also been deadly at home over the past 2 years, going 12-4 ATS as favorites. In 7 of their 8 home games this year, they’ve won by double digits, with the exception obviously being the loss to San Diego. In 2012, they won by double digits in 5 of 8 home games in the regular season.

Speaking of that loss to San Diego, I think some people are putting too much stock into that game and San Diego’s win in Cincinnati. San Diego obviously played well last week, but part of that was because they forced 4 turnovers. Considering how inconsistent turnovers are, that the Chargers had just 17 takeaways all year, and that they are facing the Broncos this week, that’s not something they’re going to be able to count on this week. Their defense is pretty bad when they aren’t forcing takeaways.

As for the win in Denver, I think that was a fluke that would happen about 10% of the time. The Chargers are certainly capable of putting together a perfect game, playing keep away with their offense and having just enough defense, but the Broncos are much more likely to do the same thing. I was hoping this line would be smaller or that the public would be on San Diego more though, so I could take the Broncos. This line is basically the same as it was the last time these two teams played and I don’t think we’re getting enough line value with the Broncos. As long as the line is higher than a touchdown, I’m taking the Chargers, but it’s a pretty much toss-up.

Denver Broncos 31 San Diego Chargers 24

Pick against spread: San Diego +9

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Broncos, Raiders, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (12-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-11)

I really don’t have a good feel for this game. We’re not getting any real line value either way, as this line is exactly where it should be. The Broncos are moving the chains at a ridiculous 80.75% rate, as opposed to 71.94% for their opponents, a differential of 8.81%, first in the NFL. The Raiders, meanwhile, are all the way down at 31st, moving the chains at a 67.05% rate, as opposed to 73.77% for their opponents, a differential of -6.72%. That suggests this line should be around 12.5 in favor of Denver, which is exactly where it is.

I’m taking the Raiders for one reason and one reason only and I’m definitely not confident. However, big home underdogs have been covering at a noticeably high rate in recent years. It’s not a trend that dates back historically or anything, but, for whatever reason, home underdogs of 7.5 or more are 18-8 ATS since 2011, including 7-3 ATS in a divisional matchup. Gun to my head, I like the Raiders to keep it within 12.5.

Denver Broncos 27 Oakland Raiders 16

Pick against spread: Oakland +12.5

Confidence: None

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Denver Broncos at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Broncos, Texans, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (11-3) at Houston Texans (2-12)

This is another one I’m completely split on. On one hand, the Broncos have no distractions upcoming that would distract them from be able to dominate a lesser opponent here and cover the spread. After this one, they just have to go to Oakland. Teams are 62-40 ATS since 2010 before being road favorites of 3 or more. They’ll actually probably be double digit road favorites in Oakland next week and teams are 77-53 ATS before being double digit road favorites since 1989. On top of that, teams are 94-66 ATS since 2010 as double digit favorites before being double digit favorites.

On the other hand, Houston is in a good spot on a long losing streak. It might sound counterintuitive, but teams are 53-31 ATS since 1989 as underdogs on a losing streak of 8 or more. It makes sense when you think about it, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed on a long losing streak like that, as long as they are underdogs. The Texans possibly being embarrassed and overlooked is pretty self-explanatory and they are also undervalued as no one wants to bet on a team on a long losing streak, so the odds makers can boost the spread on them.

We are getting line value this week with the Texans. The Broncos are obviously a very good team. They have the NFL’s best offense, moving the chains at an absurd 81.20% rate, easily the best in the NFL, but their defense is vulnerable, as they allow opponents to chains the chains at an above average 72.86% rate. That differential of 8.34% is still 2nd in the NFL, but the Texans are actually better than their record, coming in 19th. The Texans’ offense has been horrible, moving the chains at a 67.57% rate, but their defense is above average, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 69.27% rate, a differential of -1.70%. That suggests this line should actually be around 7, instead of 10.5.

The Texans are 2-12 because they’ve been killed by a -6 differential in return touchdowns and a -14 turnover differential, two things that tend to be inconsistent, and because they are 2-8 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They have just four losses by more than a touchdown all season, including just one at home, which is very relevant because this line is at 10.5. They don’t get blown out often. Likewise, the Broncos have just one road victory by double digits, as well as they’ve played this season.

The Texans showed up big-time at home for the Patriots a few weeks ago, almost winning in a 3 point loss. They could do that this week as well, especially now that they have a real quarterback in Matt Schaub back under center, with Case Keenum hurt. Keenum was doing some nice things for the Texans when he first took over as a starter, but eventually opposing defenses were able to expose why he went undrafted. He bottomed out last week, completing 18 of 34 for 169 yards and 2 interceptions in a 25-3 loss to Indianapolis, one of those 4 losses by more than a touchdown on the season.

Schaub isn’t great or anything and he’s not what he used to be, but he’s still a starting caliber quarterback. I don’t think his season numbers (62.4% completion, 6.64 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions) are indicative of the type of quarterback he is, considering they’re so far off of his career numbers. He probably knows he won’t be back in Houston next year, so he’ll take these two games as an opportunity to display himself to quarterback needy teams that could pursue him as a starter in free agency this off-season. He’ll be plenty motivated. At the end of the day, I’m taking Houston and fading the public as long as this line is 10.5, but there’s enough stuff in Denver’s favor where I’m not confident at all. In fact, if this line was 10, I might take Denver. That’s how close it is.

Denver Broncos 27 Houston Texans 17

Pick against spread: Houston +10.5

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (11-2) at San Diego Chargers (6-7)

Peyton Manning has had some games this season where he didn’t look like a quarterback that was having arguably the best regular season by a quarterback in NFL history, but none of those have been at home. At home this season, he is completing 69.8% of his passes for an average of 8.50 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while leading the Broncos to 42.3 points per game. The Broncos have surpassed 35 points per game in 6 of 7 home games this season, with the exception being against a Kansas City defense that was the best in the NFL in points per game allowed at that point, when the Broncos “only” hung 27.

As a result, the Broncos have won all 7 home games by an average of 20.43 points per game and they’ve covered in every game except for one, when they were 27 point favorites over Jacksonville, the largest line in NFL history, and “only” won by 16. They’ve also won every game by at least 10 points, with the closest being against a solid Kansas City team, which is very relevant considering this line is at 10. Their home dominance is nothing new as they are 12-4 ATS at home since Peyton Manning came to town last season, with one of those ATS losses being in the playoff game to Baltimore.

The Broncos will essentially be able to name their point total against San Diego this week, as the Chargers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76.32% rate. The Chargers are a solid football team. In fact, they move the chains at a 78.29% rate, which is not only better than their opponents, but the 2nd best in the NFL behind Denver (81.54%). They’ll be able to move the ball against a vulnerable Denver defense (72.04%), but not nearly enough to keep up with the Broncos. Even if the Chargers are an average football team, the Broncos have beaten the average football team by 20.43 points per game this season at home and no one has been closer than 10.

Especially helpful is how good Peyton Manning is at night. I don’t know if he’s a vampire or something, but he’s 31-13 ATS in night games since 2003, including 9-1 ATS on Thursday nights. The Broncos also have no distractions here with a trip to Houston on deck. Teams generally cover before being medium sized or bigger road favorites, which the Broncos will almost definitely be against one of the worst teams in the NFL next week. Teams are 63-36 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more.

The Chargers also don’t have any distractions this week, which is part of why this isn’t my Pick of the Week. They host the lowly Raiders next. Double digit underdogs before being favorites are 50-32 ATS since 2002. On top of that, underdogs of 7 or more are 60-38 ATS before being favorites of 7 or more since 2002, including 14-5 ATS as underdogs of 10 or more before being favorites of 7 or more. However, I don’t think that helps them out enough to keep this one close. This is going to be a blowout.

Denver Broncos 45 San Diego Chargers 24

Pick against spread: Denver -10

Confidence: High

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Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Broncos, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (5-7) at Denver Broncos (10-2)

Peyton Manning’s struggles in the cold are well documented. If you’ve been reading things about this game on the internet or watching ESPN or NFL Network this week, you might have heard this stat: in games where the game-time temperature  was 32 or below, Peyton Manning is 3-7, completing just 59.4% of his passes with 11 touchdowns to 12 interceptions, obviously different numbers than he’s used to. I don’t know if that statistic is as powerful as it seems because he has some strong games in the 33-40 degree range and I don’t think there’s anything magic about the number 32 that makes him terrible, unless he’s secretly a liquid.

However, there’s definitely a trending down of his play as the temperature gets colder, more than the rest of the league’s quarterbacks. Those problems seem to be more pronounced as he’s gotten older and dealt with more injury problems (the loss in New England and the home loss to Baltimore last year are 2 of his 6 losses since coming to Denver) and now he’s going to have to deal with incredibly cold temperatures at home in Denver this week with Tennessee coming to town. The game time temperature for this one is expected to be somewhere around 10 degrees and fall into single digits over the course of the game.

Peyton Manning probably won’t lose the game solely because of the cold, but it’s going to make it very tough for the Broncos to cover this 13 point spread. That spread is ridiculous to begin with. The Titans are a decent football team, which moves the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, which ranks 17th in the NFL in terms of differential. They’ve been competitive with both Seattle and Kansas City this year and they don’t deserve to be 13 point underdogs against anyone. I have this line calculated around 8.5 points.

The Broncos have really slowed down since their incredible start offensively. In his first 5 games, Peyton Manning completed 150 of 196 (76.5%) for 1884 yards (9.61 YPA), 20 touchdowns, and 1 interception. However, in his past 7 games, Peyton Manning has completed 177 of 288 (61.4%) for 2241 yards (7.78 YPA), 21 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. His numbers from his past 6 games aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s not otherworldly like he was to start the season. This line is still treating him like he is and not taking the weather into account. In spite of that, the public is still all over the Broncos, which is why the odds makers can inflate the line and still make a lot of money with a Tennessee cover. Fading heavy public leans is always a good idea.

The Titans are also in a good spot here as road underdogs off of a road loss last week in Indianapolis. Teams are 101-59 ATS in that spot since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. Teams seem to grow accustomed to playing away from home and that nullifies some of the negative effects. The Broncos, meanwhile, are in a bad spot, as they play on Thursday night next week. They could definitely get caught looking forward to that, especially since the divisional Chargers are coming to town. Favorites generally struggle before a Thursday game because they get caught looking forward, going 28-52 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 12-28 ATS before a divisional Thursday game. I have confidence that the Titans will keep this one closer than 13.

Denver Broncos 27 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against spread: Tennessee +13

Confidence: Medium

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Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos, Uncategorized

Last week: 1 (+0)

Record: 9-2

The Broncos really slowed down since their incredible start offensively. In his first 5 games, Peyton Manning completed 150 of 196 (76.5%) for 1884 yards (9.61 YPA), 20 touchdowns, and 1 interception. However, in his past 6 games, Peyton Manning has completed 155 of 253 (61.3%) for 1838 yards (7.26 YPA), 16 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. His numbers from his past 6 games aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s not otherworldly like he was to start the season. That’s not enough to knock the Broncos out of the top spot and I still believe they’re the one team that would beat any other team on a neutral field 51 times out of 100, but there’s not a lot of clarity at the top of the NFL. It’ll be a very interesting post-season.

Week 12 Studs

RG Louis Vasquez

C Manuel Ramirez

ROLB Von Miller

DT Kevin Vickerson

Week 12 Duds

TE Virgil Green

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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (9-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-2)

It’s crazy how quickly a team can go from overrated to underrated in the blink of an eye in the NFL. Two weeks ago, the Chiefs were 8 point underdogs in Denver and the public refused to believe that a 9-0 team possibly deserved to be 8 point underdogs anywhere. The Broncos won by 10 and the odds makers won money. Now two weeks later, the Broncos are in Kansas City and favored by 5.5 points and the public is all over them, which could set the odds makers up to win money again.

Being favored by 5.5 points on the road is equivalent to being favored by 11.5 points at home. So just because the Chiefs failed to cover the spread by 2 points, the line deserved to move 3.5 points? Sure, the Chiefs lost to the Chargers last week, but the Broncos didn’t look great in a loss in New England either. This line has actually shifted 2 points since last week as the early line was -3.5. The Chiefs will be without Justin Houston in this one with injury, but they still have a lot of talented defensive players, including Derrick Johnson, Dontari Poe, Tyson Jackson, and Eric Berry, all of whom are playing at a borderline Pro-Bowl level. Tamba Hali also is and he’ll be back for this one, after missing the final 3 quarters or so of their loss to San Diego, in which they surrendered 41 points.

There’s not a lot of shame in allowing 41 points in a game to the Chargers when you’re missing your top two pass rushers, especially considering the Chiefs were probably pretty distracted in between two games against Denver that would essentially decide the division regardless of what happened in the San Diego game. Having at least Hali back will be a big boost and it also helps that the Chiefs have a week to game plan for life without Houston. Losing someone like that mid-game is really rough (even ignoring they also lost Hali), but at least they know they’ll be without him this time around.

You could also argue the Chargers are a better offensive team than the Broncos. After all, they lead the NFL, moving the chains at over an 82% rate, while the Broncos now rank 3rd behind San Diego and New Orleans, moving them at an 81% rate. They’ve also really slowed down since their incredible start offensively. In his first 5 games, Peyton Manning completed 150 of 196 (76.5%) for 1884 yards (9.61 YPA), 20 touchdowns, and 1 interception. However, in his past 6 games, Peyton Manning has completed 155 of 253 (61.3%) for 1838 yards (7.26 YPA), 16 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. His numbers from his past 6 games aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s not otherworldly like he was to start the season. This line is still treating him like he is.

The Chiefs should be able to keep him in check, even without Justin Houston. After all, they did hold him and the Broncos to a season low 27 points in Denver two weeks ago. People seem to be completely discounting how well this defense played over the first nine games of the season because of the last 2 games. Their offense still has issues, but their defense is still very good and there’s no way they deserve to be 5.5 point underdogs at home to anyone. Football Outsiders still has them as their 9th ranked team in terms of DVOA, which takes into account strength of schedule, recovering fumbles, scoring on returns, all of the things that helped the Chiefs started 9-0. I think that’s accurate.

The Chiefs are also in a good spot here, unlike last week. Since 1989, teams are 16-5 ATS as underdogs two weeks after losing as underdogs to the same divisional opponent. These two teams are going to be so familiar with each other and that’s one of the great equalizers. The Broncos, meanwhile, are the ones in the bad spot. They just lost in overtime in a crushing defeat in New England.  Teams are 15-33 ATS as favorites off of a road loss in overtime since 2002. Worst case scenario, I think the Chiefs can keep it within a field goal or maybe 4 points, but I think they have a very good chance of actually winning the game outright.

Denver Broncos 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23

Pick against spread: Kansas City +5.5

Confidence: Medium

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