Last week: 1 (+0)
Record: 9-1
Week 11 Studs
RE Shaun Phillips
DT Malik Jackson
CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Week 11 Duds
TE Joel Dreessen
RE Robert Ayers
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Broncos
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (9-1) at New England Patriots (7-3)
Brady/Manning 14. That has to be some kind of record for non-divisional quarterbacks (I actually don’t know this. If someone does, let me know). This is the greatest quarterback battle in NFL history. What guys like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck etc. have done in recent years is cute, but Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have been that good consistently for over a decade despite everything changing around them. We have two elite, elite quarterbacks who face each other every year despite the fact that they are not divisional opponents, because they are able to stay in 1st place so long. On top of that, almost every game has had a memorable ending. Purely as a football fan, I can’t wait for this game.
Now onto the actual pick. The Patriots lost last week in Carolina, but result aside, they’ve played very well offensively over the past 2 weeks, with 61 first downs to 3 punts. Their offense really seems to have woken up with Tom Brady playing better, Aaron Dobson breaking out, and Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola finally healthy. They could have easily beaten Carolina if it wasn’t for a -2 turnover margin, which isn’t the norm for this team, and we can assume an explosive offense once again going forward for them.
In spite of that, the public seems to be down on the Patriots after last week’s loss, as the majority of the action is on Denver. In addition to the fact that I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, I also think this is incorrect. Carolina is a top-5 team. There’s no shame in a close loss in there on the road. In fact, result aside, I’m more impressed with the Patriots after the game than I was before.
The Panthers are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents and the Broncos have a very similar differential, moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. If New England can almost win in Carolina, why are we getting a whole field goal with them at home? The Patriots are now moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, which suggests this line should be around a point, before you even get into the fact that the Patriots are playing better football now than the start of the season.
That’s also before you get into the fact that the Patriots are in a great spot as home underdogs before being road favorites. Teams are 64-39 ATS in that spot since 2002. The Patriots have absolutely no distractions with a trip to Houston on deck, while the Broncos are in between two games against the Chiefs, which are much more important to the Broncos’ seeding than this one. Because the Patriots lost last week, the Broncos will still control their destiny to the #1 seed if they lose this game, but they won’t if they win this game and lose next week. The Broncos won’t sleepwalk through this game or anything. After all, it’s Brady/Manning. However, the Patriots will be less distracted.
The Patriots are also in a spot where they traditionally cover. Simply put, Tom Brady dominates in this specific situation. The fact that they lost last week actually bodes well for their chances of covering this week. Tom Brady is 28-15 ATS off of a loss in his career. He’s also fantastic as an underdog or a small favorite. In his career, Brady is 29-14 ATS as an underdog and 40-16 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of 2.5 or fewer. At home, he’s 7-2 ATS as an underdog in his career and he’s 12-2 ATS as a home underdog or home favorite of 2.5 or fewer. In fact, he hasn’t been an underdog at home since 2005. As an underdog off of a loss, he’s 12-2 ATS, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog off of a loss as an underdog. He dominates when doubted and off of a loss and that’s the exact situation he’s in this week.
And if the opponent is a high level opponent, even better. In his career, Tom Brady is 27-11 straight up against opponents with a better record than his. Just think about that. Teams usually win 38.4% against teams with a better record than the other one. Tom Brady has won 71.1% of such games. Against the spread, he’s even better, going 28-9-1 ATS, including 17-5 ATS as underdogs. Tom Brady always brings his best for the best opponents and he’ll do the same this week.
The Broncos also might be a little overrated here. We know they’re a dominant team at home, but on the road, they’ve won by 3 in Dallas, lost in Indianapolis, and won by just 8 in San Diego, with the Chargers scoring 4 times (2 touchdowns, 2 field goals) to Denver’s 4 scores (4 touchdowns), even though Denver was coming off of a bye. Their only impressive road win came in New York against the Giants and they were playing awful football at the time. I’m not saying the Broncos are a bad road team, but it’s very, very tough for any team to be dominant on the road and it’s very, very tough for any team to win on the road against a top level opponent (just ask the Patriots last week).
They’ve also shown cracks since that amazing start they got off to. In his first 5 games, Peyton Manning completed 150 of 196 (76.5%) for 1884 yards (9.61 YPA), 20 touchdowns, and 1 interception. However, in his past 5 games, Peyton Manning has completed 136 of 217 (62.7%) for 1688 yards (7.79 YPA), 14 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. His numbers from his past 5 games aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s not otherworldly like he was to start the season. This line is still treating him like he is. He’s a 37-year-old quarterback who isn’t 100% with two bad ankles and now he has to go on the road to the cold in New England.
He could also be without two of his weapons as Wes Welker and Julius Thomas are both dealing with injuries. Wes Welker will need to get cleared by doctors because he suffered a concussion last week, while Julius Thomas injured his knee and has yet to practice. I’m not saying they’re definitely going to be out, but it’s worth noting. Peyton Manning won’t suddenly struggle without them and he still has plenty of weapons, but Peyton Manning is having probably the best season of his career this year because of the addition of Welker and the emergence of Thomas. Take them out of the mix and he could struggle a little bit more than usual by this season’s standards. Add everything together and I love the Patriots’ chances of winning a shootout at home and, as long as I’m getting a field goal, this is my Pick of the Week.
New England Patriots 34 Denver Broncos 27 Upset Pick +120
Pick against spread: New England +3
Confidence: Pick of the Week
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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) at Denver Broncos (8-1)
The Chiefs are 9-0 and 8 point underdogs. How rare is that? Well, since 1989, no 9-0 team has ever been an underdog of any amount. The Chiefs are 8 point underdogs. No 8-0 team has ever been an underdog of any amount. If you want to find an undefeated team that has been underdogs of this amount, you’d have to go back to 1997, when the 5-0 Buccaneers were 8 point underdogs in Green Bay (for the record, they covered, but did not win).
Some people might look at that and think “how can the Chiefs not cover?” and apparently that’s what people are doing as the majority of the money is on the underdog here. I think the opposite. The odds makers must have a good reason for making them underdogs of this amount. It’s not like undefeated dogs are an automatic cover. 5-0 or better teams are 7-6 ATS since 1989 and 4-0 or better teams are 14-14 ATS and the fact that the public is on Kansas City makes me think this is a trap line. There’s a reason the odds makers always win in the long run.
So why do the Chiefs deserve to be 8 point underdogs? For one thing, they’ve had the easiest schedule in the NFL this season, according to DVOA and that doesn’t even take into account they’ve faced 3rd string quarterbacks in their last 3 games and backup quarterbacks in 4 of their last 5 games. The last 5 quarterbacks they’ve faced: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Terrelle Pryor, Case Keenum, Jason Campbell, and Jeff Tuel. Peyton Manning represents an obvious contrast from those 5.
The Broncos have had an easily schedule as well, 31st in terms of DVOA, but there are a couple of differences. For one thing, the Broncos have faced just one backup quarterback (Chad Henne and the Jaguars). The Broncos have also been more impressive in their victories, with a +133 point differential, as opposed to +104 for Kansas City. That also takes into account that the Chiefs have 7 return touchdowns, which have accounted for 49 of those points. As a result, the Chiefs rank just 23rd in points per drive, despite the easiest schedule in the NFL.
Return touchdowns are very tough to rely on, especially against the Broncos. The Chiefs have also been helped by an unsustainable turnover margin (+15) and an unsustainable rate of recovering fumbles (66.7%), which is a large part of the reason why the Chiefs are +7 in return touchdowns. The Broncos, meanwhile, are just +2 in turnovers, despite having Peyton Manning under center, largely as a result of a 36.7% fumble recovery rate. The Chiefs may rank 1st in points per drive allowed, but they rank just 6th in net points per drive, while the Broncos rank 1st. In terms of DVOA, the Broncos rank 1st, while the Chiefs rank 8th. That’s why this line makes sense.
As I said, I automatically lean towards the Broncos because I think this is a trap line. However, there are reasons why I’m not confident in the Broncos. Peyton Manning’s high ankle sprain and the uncertainty that comes with it is one reason. The Chiefs are also in a good spot as divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 55-38 ATS in since 2002. The Chiefs host the Chargers next week, which mean they won’t have any distractions to worry about.
Also, Andy Reid’s extraordinary record off of a bye has to be taken into account. As a Head Coach with the Eagles, Andy Reid was 14-1 off of a regular season bye, with that one loss coming in last year’s train wreck of a season. Of course, he’s only once been underdogs over more than 3 off of a regular season bye so his teams have never been as challenged as the Chiefs will be against the Broncos this week. However, against the spread, he is 11-4 ATS off of a bye and even if the Chiefs don’t win, there’s a lot of room to cover anyway. At the end of the day, I’m fading the trap line, but I’m not confident at all.
Denver Broncos 27 Kansas City Chiefs 17
Pick against spread: Denver -8
Confidence: None
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Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#1)
Last week: 1 (+1)
Record: 8-1
Peyton Manning’s ankle is a concern going into the biggest game of their season thus far against the Chiefs (followed by the Patriots, followed by the Chiefs again). However, it’s very good to see that the Broncos are favored by 8 points over the Chiefs. This is the latest an undefeated team has been an underdog of this much. The odds makers, who always make money in the long run, know the Chiefs aren’t as good as their record. Even better, the public is siding with the Chiefs, looking at them and thinking “how can a 9-0 team be an underdog by this much?” It has all the making of a trap line. The Broncos should win by double digits, go into Kansas City and win later, and re-establish themselves as the top team in the AFC.
Week 10 Studs
WR Demaryius Thomas
RG Louis Vasquez
ROLB Von Miller
Week 10 Duds
SS Mike Adams
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Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#1)
Last week: 2 (+1)
Record: 7-1
On bye.
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Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (7-1) at San Diego Chargers (4-4)
Dominant teams usually play very well off of a bye. Since 2002, road favorites of 3.5 or more are 29-8 ATS since 2002, including 12-1 ATS in a divisional game. This makes sense. Dominant teams are better suited to using an extra week off. Peyton Manning, for instance, is 9-1 ATS off of a regular season bye since 2004, in his last 10 instances. The Broncos are in a very good position here as 7 point road favorites after a bye.
The Broncos are also in another good spot as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites against the Chiefs next week. Teams are 38-22 ATS in that spot since 2002. The Broncos are a dominant team with a league leading +125 points differential. They’ve won 6 of their 8 games by 16 or more and they should win this one here by at least 7 with a bye off to prepare for the Chargers. This is my Pick of the Week.
Denver Broncos 38 San Diego Chargers 24
Pick against spread: Denver -7
Confidence: Pick of the Week
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Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#2)
Last week: 2 (+0)
Record: 7-1
Peyton Manning threw 3 interceptions against the Redskins, matching his total from his first 7 games, but that was bound to happen. His level of play from earlier this season was simply unsustainable, even for him. Still, Manning played well and so did the defense, which has been rejuvenated by the return of Von Miller, in a 45-21 victory going into the bye. I still think the Seahawks are better equipped to win a cold weather Super Bowl and they looked better on the road against a mutual opponent in Indianapolis, but Denver is clearly a very, very solid football team.
Week 8 Studs
RB Knowshon Moreno
C Manuel Ramirez
ROLB Von Miller
DT Terrance Knighton
CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Week 8 Duds
LE Derek Wolfe
DT Kevin Vickerson
MLB Wesley Woodyard
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Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick
Washington Redskins (2-4) at Denver Broncos (6-1)
The Broncos lost their first game of the season in Indianapolis last week. The good news is they return home here to play the Washington Redskins in a game in which they should win. The question is, by how much will they win? Fortunately for them, they have a bye coming up so they can be totally focused here as 12.5 point favorites. Since 2002, home favorites of 7 or more are 26-9 ATS before a mid-season bye. It makes sense. Teams have no distractions and can take care of business.
However, I question if the line should be this high. This is one of the biggest NFL Lines of the week. The Broncos are playing incredible football, even with the loss, moving the chains at an 84% rate offensively and allowing opponents to do so at a league average 73% average. However, the Redskins are better than their record as well, moving the chains at a 77% rate, as opposed to 77% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be closer to 9 or 10.
Peyton Manning should shred up a Washington defense that has lost Brandon Meriweather again, but Robert Griffin played his best game of the season last week and has been running better since the bye. He might not be fully back until next season, but he’s capable of putting up some points against an unspectacular stop unit and he’s definitely capable of a backdoor garbage time cover.
The Redskins are also in a good spot as they have no real upcoming distractions as they host San Diego next week, a game in which they will be favored. 10+ point underdogs are 42-24 ATS since 2002 before being home favorites and non-divisional road underdogs are 96-61 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional home favorites. At the end of the day, I’m taking Denver to win their 6th game of the season by 13 or more. That trend is too powerful and the addition of Von Miller, now in his 2nd game back, could give them a real boost in terms of stopping Robert Griffin. It’s not a high confidence pick though.
Denver Broncos 41 Washington Redskins 24
Pick against spread: Denver -12.5
Confidence: Low
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Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#2)
Last week: 1 (-1)
Record: 6-1
Remember when people thought the Broncos were definitely going 16-0 because they looked so dominant for the first 4 weeks. It was clear that was an unsustainable level of offense and that their defense would eventually be exposed. I’m kind of disappointed in myself for moving them up to #2. I think they’re better than the Chiefs and could easily sweep the season series with them, but ironically they’d be the #5 seed if the playoffs started today and would go to New England.
Week 7 Studs
WR Wes Welker
RT Louis Vasquez
ROLB Von Miller
Week 7 Duds
RB Knowshon Moreno
LT Chris Clark
RG Chris Kuper
LE Derek Wolfe
DT Kevin Vickerson
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Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts: Week 7 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (6-0) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2)
The Broncos have failed to cover in their last 2 instances, barely winning in Dallas and sleepwalking to a 16 point win over the Jaguars at home. However, the odds makers continue boosting the spread on them as if they are some kind of perfect, invulnerable opponent. I never bought that they could continue this level of play all season and we’ve shown them display some cracks, particularly defensively, in recent weeks. This week, they are 7 point favorites on the road over the Colts and the public is still all over them. I think the Colts are too good of a team to be 7 point home underdogs to anyone.
The Colts are moving the ball at an 81% rate offensively thanks to a breakout season from Andrew Luck, in part because of new offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton’s system and an improved offensive line. Defensively, they are allowing opponents to move the ball at a 74% rate. That’s slightly worse than league average, but they are still improved defensively over last season, thanks to the addition of new players through free agency and the return of defensive mind Chuck Pagano from cancer.
That +7% differential is 5th in the NFL. The Broncos are still 1st at +11%, moving the chains at an 86% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents. However, I don’t think they deserve to be favored by this much in Indianapolis. The Colts flopped last week in San Diego, but I don’t put much weight into that. It was an obvious trap game situation between a win as home underdogs over the Seahawks and this huge game. They also were in a bad spot as an Eastern Time Zone team on the West Coast at a 8 PM ET start. They should be able to bounce back and at least keep this within a touchdown, if not hand the Broncos their first loss of the season.
Denver Broncos 34 Indianapolis Colts 31
Pick against spread: Indianapolis +7
Confidence: Medium
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