Broncos

Denver Broncos: Wild Card Round Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Playoffs 1 Power Rankings, Broncos

It’s 2006 again. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning appear to be on a crash course. Both quarterbacked arguably the best teams in the league (the Broncos and Patriots ranked 2nd and 3rd in the NFL in DVOA, but I don’t trust #1 Seattle on the road). Both are MVP candidates. Peyton Manning is currently viewed as the favorite, but I think that’s both undeserved and beneficial to the Patriots. I’ll go into the former here and the latter in New England’s write up.

The Patriots and Broncos played back in week 5 and the Patriots got a pretty convincing 10 point win, Denver’s biggest of the season. The Broncos also lost to Atlanta and Houston early on the season and as a result they are just 2-3 on the season against playoff teams. The Broncos have won 11 in a row since the New England loss, but only 2 of them (Cincinnati and Baltimore) came against teams with a record of .500 or better. I think it’s clear that the Broncos are a better team than the one that started the season out 2-3, but I don’t think they’re as improved as people think.

Projected fate: Lose to New England in AFC Championship

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs (2-13) at Denver Broncos (12-3)

This is the biggest line of the season, tied with San Francisco/Arizona at -16.5, but unlike that game, this game actually merits a 16.5 point line. This line really can’t be high enough. Kansas City ranks dead last in net points per drive, DVOA, and weighted DVOA, while the Broncos rank 4th, 2nd, and 2nd respectively in those 3 categories.

If you take the difference between the Broncos’ net points per drive and the Chiefs’ net points per drive, multiply by 11 (the average amount of points per drive), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Denver should be favored by 20.5 and I think it’d take them all the way up to that. The only way the Chiefs can move the ball offensively is on the ground and the Broncos rank 3rd against that. This should be a complete blowout. I just hate laying this many points, so it’s a small play.

Public lean: Denver (60% range)

Denver Broncos 27 Kansas City Chiefs 3

Pick against spread: Denver -16.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Denver Broncos: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 5 (+0)

Record: 12-3

Net points per drive: 0.74 (4th)

DVOA: 35.3% (2nd)

Weighted DVOA: 37.5% (2nd)

Studs

QB Peyton Manning: 30 of 43 for 339 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, 2 drops, 1 hit as thrown, 1 throw away, 1 batted pass, 97.4 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 6 of 43 drop backs (3 of 6, 1 hit as thrown, 1 throw away)

RG Manuel Ramirez: Did not allow a pressure on 47 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 6 yards on 4 attempts

WR Demaryius Thomas: Caught 9 passes for 102 yards and a touchdowns on 13 attempts on 43 pass snaps, 3.2 YAC per catch

SS Mike Adams: Allowed 2 catches for 19 yards on 8 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hit on 6 blitzes, 1 penalty

LOLB Wesley Woodyard: 3 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 10 blitzes, 3 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 2 catches for 9 yards on 3 attempts

CB Champ Bailey: Was not thrown on, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 penalty

ROLB Von Miller: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 25 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

RE Elvis Dumervil: 3 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 41 pass rush snaps, 1 stop, 1 penalty

Duds

RE Robert Ayers: Did not record a pressure on 19 pass rush snaps, 1 missed tackle

LE Derek Wolfe: 1 sack on 39 pass rush snaps, 1 stop

DT Kevin Vickerson: Did not record a pressure on 18 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

WR Trindon Holliday: 2 punt returns for 2 yards, 1 fumble

FS Jim Leonhard: 1 punt return for 0 yards, 1 fumble, allowed 2 catches for 40 yards on 2 attempts, 1 solo tackle

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Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Broncos, Browns

Cleveland Browns (5-9) at Denver Broncos (11-3)

Before last week, the Browns hadn’t really gotten blown out all year. They had been competitive in every other game. They only have 3 other losses by more than a touchdown. One of those, a 14 point loss in New York against the Giants, was a lot closer than the final score as the Browns actually led 14-0 early. In another one, a 25-15 loss against the Ravens, they actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, but they had 5 field goals to 3 touchdowns and a field goal for the Ravens. Only a 10 point loss to the Bills week 3 was a game they weren’t really competitive in before last week.

I don’t know what happened last week, but maybe they just were completely unprepared for Kirk Cousins and overlooking him, expecting an easy 4th win in a row with Robert Griffin hurt, and they were completely caught off guard. This is still a team that plays a lot of close games. Their points differential is just -30 at 5-9 and they rank 20th in net points per drive at -0.11. Last year, they lost just 3 of their 12 games by more than 11 points and in 2010, they had just 2 such losses. The Browns are 5-2 ATS as double digit dogs since 2010, as they’ve had the most losses by a touchdown or less in the NFL over that time period. They’re actually 8-5-1 ATS on the season this year.

However, that doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t get blown out by the Broncos, who have 6 wins this year by 12 or more, which is where this line is at. As a result, they rank 5th in net points per drive at 0.67. As a result of this, we’re not actually getting much line value with the Browns, even though they have played a lot of close games. If we take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game) and add 2.5 for home field, we get that Denver should be favored by 11, which isn’t much of a difference. DVOA somewhat reinforces this as the Broncos rank 3rd in both regular and weighted, while the Browns rank 25th in regular, though 19th in weighted.

On top of that, the Broncos are touchdown plus favorites before being touchdown plus favorites when their opponent will next be touchdown plus dogs. Teams are 100-59 ATS in this spot since 1989, though just 16-13 ATS when both teams have a divisional game next. That trend overall is actually just 34-27 ATS since 2002. I am also worried about the loss of TJ Ward on Cleveland’s defense, but if I had to pick a side, I’d go with Cleveland to play another close game. There might also be some backdoor cover potential here. It’s not a significant play though.

Public lean: Denver (50% range)

Sharps lean: CLE 19 DEN 2

Final thoughts: The sharps love the Browns more than anyone this week. We also have reverse line action. I’m boosting this to 3 units.

Denver Broncos 24 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against spread: Cleveland +11 (-110) 3 units

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Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Broncos, Ravens

Denver Broncos (10-3) at Baltimore Ravens (9-4)

Before losing to the Steelers at home a few weeks ago, the Ravens had ripped off 16 straight home wins, dating back to 2010. Given that, it’s kind of weird to see them as home dogs here. It’s also kind of funny to see how far this team has fallen in the last two weeks thanks to two losses. I had been saying they weren’t as good as their record all season, but the way the public has soured on this team in just 2 weeks is a little bit of an overreaction.

It’s almost like they’ve become underrated for being overrated, that people have called them overrated so many times that we’ve forgotten they’re not a bad team. This line was Denver -1.5 a week ago and two weeks ago, they probably would have been favored. In spite of this, the public is pounding the Broncos. I love fading the public because the public always loses money in the long run.

Good teams tend to bounce back off a loss and the Ravens are no exception. In fact, on the rare occasions they’ve lost two in a row in the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era, they’ve almost always covered in the following game. That’s happened just 4 times since the start of the 2008 season and they’ve covered in the following game at a record of 3-1 ATS. It’s obviously a very small sample size, but it’s important to note that this team has only twice lost 3 in a row since 2008 and never since weeks 4-6 of the 2009 season.

They’re also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites as they are expected to be favored when the Giants come to town next week. Teams are 105-62 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons, including 17-6 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites. That being said, when we go back to 2002 to get a larger sample size, teams are just 52-47 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites, which isn’t significant at all. There’s also a decent chance that, depending on what happens this week, they will actually be home dogs next week for a good Giants team. The early lines have them as favorites, but that might not hold up. While home dogs tend to cover before being home favorites, they are just 31-46 ATS since 2008 before being home dogs again.

That’s kind of a theme for this game, uncertainty. I don’t really have a strong feel for this game as a result. The Ravens did win 16 in a row at home at one point, but they weren’t exactly blowing teams out and they weren’t exactly playing a tough schedule. This is demonstrated by the fact that the Ravens were just 7-8-1 ATS in those 16 games and they never once were home dogs like they are here.

They’re also in a very bad spot here off of a road overtime loss. If you exclude road dogs (because road dogs tend to cover off a road loss, in general), teams are 21-46 ATS off a road overtime loss since 2002, including 8-14 ATS as home dogs, as the Ravens are here. We are getting a tiny bit of line value with the Broncos, as the real line based off net points per drive is Denver -1, which holds up to DVOA. However, that’s pretty insignificant. I don’t have a real feel for this game, but gun to my head, the Broncos should be the right side, as long as the line doesn’t go above 3. If we get more than a field goal with the Ravens, I might have to take them. That’s how close this is. Put this last in any confidence pools.

Public lean: Denver (70% range)

Denver Broncos 27 Baltimore Ravens 23

Pick against spread: Denver -3 (-110) 1 unit

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Denver Broncos: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 5 (+0)

Record: 10-3

Net points per drive: 0.65 (4th)

DVOA: 35.5% (3rd)

Weighted DVOA: 37.9% (3rd)

The Broncos are on an 8 game winning streak, but the Patriots control their own destiny for the #2 seed and if they beat the 49ers this weekend and I think they will win that one. The Broncos have their own huge game this week in Baltimore, which will probably be for the #3 seed if the Patriots win. It looks like the Broncos will be going to Foxboro in the AFC Divisional round for another Brady/Manning game. The Patriots won the first game in Foxboro and they’ll definitely be favored to win the 2nd game.

Studs

RB Knowshon Moreno: Rushed for 119 yards (87 after contact) and a touchdown on 32 attempts, 2 broken tackles, caught 4 passes for 48 yards on 5 attempts

LT Ryan Clady: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 24 yards on 4 attempts

WR Eric Decker: Caught 8 passes for 88 yards on 9 attempts on 43 pass snaps, 2.4 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

WR Demaryius Thomas: Caught 5 passes for 83 yards on 7 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 5.8 YAC per catch

CB Chris Harris: Allowed 2 catches for 17 yards on 2 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 2 quarterback hurries on 3 blitzes

ROLB Von Miller: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 26 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

K Matt Prater: 7 kickoffs, 5 touchbacks, 72.1 yards per kickoff, 18.1 opponent’s average starting distance, 4/4 FG (20, 33, 34, 43)

Duds

RG Manuel Ramirez: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 6 attempts

WR Brandon Stokley: Was not thrown to on 20 pass snaps

CB Tony Carter: Allowed 8 catches for 118 yards and 2 touchdowns on 10 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

RE Elvis Dumervil: Did not record a pressure on 30 pass rush snaps, no tackles

WR Trindon Holliday: 1 punt return for 0 yards, 1 fumble, 1 kickoff return for 33 yards

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Denver Broncos: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 5 (+0)

Record: 9-3

Net points per drive: 0.62 (5th)

DVOA: 37.0% (2nd)

Weighted DVOA: 38.1% (2nd)

Studs

C Dan Koppen: Did not allow a pressure on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 32 yards on 8 attempts

LG Zane Beadles: Did not allow a pressure on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt, 1 penalty

TE Jacob Tamme: Caught 9 passes for 89 yards on 13 attempts on 35 pass snaps, 3.4 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

WR Demaryius Thomas: Caught 8 passes for 99 yards and 2 touchdowns on 41 pass snaps, 4.4 YAC per catch

CB Chris Harris: Allowed 4 catches for 54 yards on 7 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops

ROLB Von Miller: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops

LE Derek Wolfe: 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 39 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

Duds

WR Eric Decker: Caught 2 passes for 17 yards on 2 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch

TE Joel Dreessen: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 32 pass snaps, 1 drop

DT Justin Bannan: Did not record a pressure on 10 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle

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Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Broncos, Raiders

Denver Broncos (9-3) at Oakland Raiders (3-9)

The Raiders actually gave a little bit of effort last week. They still lost at home to the previously 3-8 Browns in a game they trailed throughout, but that was sadly a big step up from where they were the week before. In their 3 games prior, they lost all 3 by 21 or more, which is actually incredibly rare. That’s only the 13th time that’s happened since 1989, which is why I love betting teams off back-to-back losses of 21 or more (36-17 ATS since 2002).

This week, the Raiders are actually in a really good spot. For one, divisional favorites of more than a touchdown are just 2-10 ATS this season, which I think speaks to the high level of parity in the NFL this season. The Broncos struggled and failed to cover the spread in a win in Kansas City two weeks ago in a very similar type game.

Meanwhile, teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons and the Raiders host the Chiefs next week, a game they are expected to be favorites in. Going off that, divisional home dogs are 20-10 ATS before being divisional home favorites since 1989. The Raiders are also in their 2nd straight game as home dogs off a loss, a situation teams are 60-41 ATS in since 2002.

Speaking of that loss last week, as I mentioned, the Raiders were actually competitive. Teams that are on long losing streaks that almost broke through the week before actually cover at a high rate. Teams that lose 5+ straight are 60-35 ATS since 2002 off a loss by 8 or fewer. All the trends say they should cover, but of course, all the trends said they would cover against Baltimore, New Orleans, and Cincinnati too and they got blown out.

This week, we’re actually getting line value with the Broncos. Using the net points per drive differential method of computing real line, this line should be Denver -13.5. The Broncos rank 5th in net points per drive at 0.62 the Raiders rank 31st in net points per drive at -0.90. If we take the difference between those two, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game), and add 3 points in the Raiders’ direction for home field advantage, we get around Denver -13.5. That line checks out with DVOA (which is net points per drive based, but takes other things into account like schedule). The Broncos rank 2nd in both DVOA and weighted DVOA, while the Raiders rank 31st and 32nd respectively in those two metrics.

However, unlike the Baltimore game, the New Orleans game, and the Cincinnati game, in which the Raiders showed no effort, this is a divisional matchup. In fact, it’s a home primetime game against not only their biggest rival, but by far the best team in the division. This is their Super Bowl. Just like the Eagles last week, they should give their best effort of the season and cover a large spread against a superior team.

Actually, where the Raiders are right now is very similar to where the Eagles were last week. The Eagles were atrocious over a 4 game stretch, getting outscored 125-64, and then were competitive as home dogs against a crappy team. The Raiders were also atrocious over a 4 game stretch, getting outscored 167-77, and then were competitive as home dogs against a crappy team. Now, like the Eagles were last week, the Raiders are double digit divisional dogs in a game with all the trends on their side in a game that means much more for them than their opponent. The Broncos just want a win, while the Raiders are playing for pride.

I also like that the public likes the Broncos. The odds makers always make money in the long run, so it makes sense to fade the public whenever it seems appropriate. It’s never really a bad thing to be on the same side as the odds makers. They know what they’re doing. However, like the Eagles last week, I can’t make a big play on the Raiders. They should be the right side though.

Public lean: Denver (70% range)

Denver Broncos 27 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spr­ead: Oakland +10.5 (-110) 2 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Broncos, Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) at Denver Broncos (8-3)

The Buccaneers lost last week, snapping a 4 game winning streak, but it was once again a close game. The Buccaneers are still 5-2 since the bye and they’ve really looked like a different team since then. Josh Freeman is 134 of 220 for 1971 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in his last 6 games. He has a cannon for an arm, but he wasn’t using it last year, throwing 20 yards downfield or more on just 6.5% of his throws, by far least frequent in the NFL, despite being the 3rd most accurate deep ball thrower in the NFL. This year, with a reliable deep threat in Vincent Jackson, he’s going deep on 15.7% of his throws and, more importantly, he’s having a ton of success, going 23 of 55 for 932 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception.

Their makeshift offensive line is run blocking and pass protecting well. The Freeman to Vincent Jackson combo is deadly (47 catches for 959 yards and 7 touchdowns) and opening things up for Mike Williams and Doug Martin, who is running much better since the bye thanks to improved blocking and the defense fearing the pass. Defensively, as bad as their secondary is, they have a great front 7 led by the finally healthy Gerald McCoy and rookie of the year candidate Lavonte David.

Even before the bye, they were better than their record. They were 1-3, but all 3 losses were by a touchdown or less and all 3 were against quality opponents, the Giants, the Cowboys, and the Redskins. They have not lost a single game by more than a touchdown all year and on the flip side, they have 4 wins by double digits. Because of this, they are +56 in points differential and they are either 9-2 ATS, 8-2-1 ATS, or 7-2-2 ATS, depending on the line you had in the Tampa Bay/NY Giants game (either +7 or +7.5) and in the Tampa Bay/Atlanta game (either +1 or +1.5). On the road, they are either 4-0-1 or 5-0 ATS (Giants game).

Going off that points differential, they actually rank 10th in the NFL in net points per drive. The Broncos, meanwhile, rank 4th. If you take the difference between the Buccaneers’ (0.35) net points per drive and the Broncos’ (0.66) and multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game) and add 3 points for home field advantage, you get that this line should be right around Denver -6.5, meaning that we’re getting line value with Tampa Bay, who should, at the very least, keep this within a touchdown once again and once again cover, as this line is right at that magic -7 point.

I say at the very least because I think the Buccaneers have a very good chance to win straight up. This game means different things for these two teams. The Buccaneers are dogs before being favorites and teams are 98-56 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons, including 42-20 ATS when both are non-divisional. They have no distractions on the horizon with the lowly non-divisional Eagles on their schedule next and this is a huge game to extend their season. They have to go to New Orleans, Atlanta, and Denver in their last 5 games and they have to win 2 to make the playoffs. I think it’s more likely they beat the Saints (inferior team to the Broncos) and the Falcons (week 17, they could be resting starters), but they could win here.

The Broncos, meanwhile, will go to Oakland and play the divisional Raiders on Thursday Night football next week. The Raiders are lowly as well, but because that’s a Thursday Night divisional game, it’s a different story. Since 1989, favorites are 25-37 ATS before a divisional Thursday game, 15-24 ATS before being favorites. Teams do tend to cover as non-conference favorites before being divisional favorites, as those teams are 52-33 ATS before being divisional favorites, but they’re 4-6 ATS before a Thursday night game. The Buccaneers are much more likely to be 100% focused for this one. It’s a significant play on the Buccaneers to at least keep this within 7.

Public lean: Denver (50% range)

Sharps lean: DEN 14 TB 5

Final update: No change.

Denver Broncos 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +7 (-110) 3 units

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Denver Broncos: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 6 (+2)

Record: 8-3

Net points per drive: 0.66 (4th)

DVOA: 35.0% (3rd)

Weighted DVOA: 36.1% (3rd)

Tier 1: Contenders

Studs

LG Zane Beadles: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 21 yards on 4 attempts, 1 penalty

CB Champ Bailey: Allowed 4 catches for 33 yards on 9 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 4 stops

SS Mike Adams: 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hit on 1 blitzes, did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection

Duds

MLB Keith Brooking: 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, did not allow a catch on 1 attempt

K Matt Prater: 4 kickoffs, 1 touchback, 63.0 yards per kickoff, 23.3 opponent’s average starting distance, 1/3 FG (34, missed 33, 47)

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