Broncos

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chiefs

Denver Broncos (7-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-9)

There are two trends that apply to this game, but both of them can be neutralized by the fact that this matchup is divisional. Home dogs are 57-40 ATS off a loss as home dogs since 2002, but that only 13-10 ATS as divisional home dogs after being non-divisional home dogs. When you go back to 2002 to get a bigger sample size, that trend is just 28-27 ATS.

Meanwhile, fading touchdown road dogs is generally a good idea, which makes sense. It’s really hard, no matter who you are, of winning by a touchdown or more on the road. Touchdown plus road favorites are 80-99 ATS since 2002, but only 31-33 ATS in the division. You’d think it would be stronger in the division because it’s tough to go into a divisional opponent and blow them out because they know you so well, making up for some of the talent gap, but that’s not the case. In fact, since 1989, double digit road favorites in the division are 25-27 ATS.

We are getting some line value with the Chiefs. The yards per play differential method (which the Broncos lead) gives us a real line of Denver -12.5, but the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Denver -4, which averages out to be noticeably less than the -10.5 this line really is. At the same time, this line has made a major shift in the last week as it was at -7 a week ago and still the public is pounding the Broncos, noteworthy because the odds makers have had a rough 3 week stretch and need to make money back, which they always do eventually. Bad teams in a divisional matchup always seem to do well in the 2nd half of the season anyway as dogs with 1 win or fewer are 64-35 ATS as divisional dogs after week 9 since 1989.

That being said, I can’t take the Chiefs here. The Broncos have all the momentum, which eats away at the Chiefs’ line value, maybe entirely and the Chiefs have decided to go back to Brady Quinn at quarterback, who is absolutely horrible, worse than Matt Cassel’s. Cassel’s issue was turnovers, but when he avoids them, he’s serviceable. Quinn rarely turns the ball over and has still never been serviceable. In his career, he completes 53.3% of his passes for an average of 5.4 YPA and 10 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. I hate laying this many points on the road, but the Broncos should be the right side. The Broncos are also my survivor pick, as much as I hate taking road teams in survivor. I would be stunned if the Broncos lost this one and for some reason I still haven’t used them.

Public lean: Denver (80% range)

Sharps lean: KC 5 DEN 1

Final update: This is tied for the least picked game of the week in LV Hilton. That’s no surprise. No one wants to lay double digits on the road, but no one wants to take the Chiefs either. I feel the same way.

Denver Broncos 31 Kansas City Chiefs 9 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, SEA, DAL)

Pick against spread: Denver -10.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Denver Broncos: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 5 (-1)

Record: 7-3

Right now, this is one of 6 upper echelon teams right now. They could be higher, but I’m putting Atlanta ahead of them because they won head-to-head and have a 2 game better record than them, but I think if these teams were to have a rematch this week, I’d probably pick Denver. Denver only moves down because I was incredibly impressed Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers were previously below the Broncos. Still, I’m very, very impressed with this team right now and would not be shocked in the least if they won the Super Bowl.

Studs

RT Orlando Franklin: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 4 attempts

LG Zane Beadles: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 3 attempts

ROLB Von Miller: 3 sacks and 7 quarterback hurries on 38 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops

CB Chris Harris: Allowed 2 catches for 22 yards on 5 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops

LOLB Wesley Woodyard: 7 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, allowed 2 catches for 22 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 12 blitzes

LOLB DJ Williams: 4 solo tackles, 4 stops, allowed 1 catch for 3 yards on 3 attempts

RE Elvis Dumervil: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 32 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

C Dan Koppen: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 7 attempts

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San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers

San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Denver Broncos (6-3)

In my Power Rankings this week I joked, “Why does it feel like the Chargers are going to lose to Denver, fall to 4-6, and then go on their annual late season run, finish 8-8 or 9-7, miss the playoffs barely, and save Norv Turner’s and AJ Smith’s jobs? Oh, that’s right, that happens every year.” Well, I’m not so sure that their annual late season run can’t start this week.

It’s more likely that they drop this one and then go on their run, just because Denver is on a roll right now and their schedule gets easy after this one (home for Baltimore, and Cincinnati, at Pittsburgh, home for Carolina, at the Jets, home for Oakland), but you can rule out them winning this one or at least being competitive.

The Chargers are road dogs after a road loss, a situation teams are 80-47 ATS in since 2008. Norv Turner is also 5-1 ATS in same season divisional revenge games, though it’s worth noting that teams are just 9-16 ATS trying to avenge a same season loss in which they blew a 14 point or larger halftime lead. Philip Rivers, meanwhile, is 30-19 ATS in week 11 or later, including 11-4 ATS as dogs.

The Broncos, meanwhile, are home favorites after back-to-back wins as road favorites, a situation teams are 54-37 ATS in since 1989. We’re also getting some line value with them as the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Denver -13 (they rank #1 in yards per play differential) and the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Denver -4.

If we average those out, we were getting a little bit of little value with Denver (Denver -8.5), who is absolutely rolling right now. It’s weird to say, but Tracy Porter getting sick was the turning point for their season. Obviously, I wish the best for Porter in his recovery from him mysterious illness, but as well as Peyton Manning is playing, they wouldn’t be a complete team if it weren’t for Chris Harris and Tony Carter stepping up and playing phenomenal in their secondary and that wouldn’t have happened if Porter were playing.

They haven’t lost since Porter went out. Harris and Porter are both former undrafted cornerbacks who were afterthoughts on the depth chart that Jack Del Rio has playing out of their minds. Carter is allowing 11 of 32 for 115 yards, 2 interceptions, 4 deflections, and 1 penalty and is unfortunately not even on the Pro-Bowl ballot. He’s also scored twice defensively. Chris Harris, meanwhile, is allowing 23 of 40 for 255 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 1 pass and committing just 1 penalty. He also has 3 sacks and is playing the run very well.

They rank 6th in pass defense, 2nd in run defense and lead the league in yards per play differential. In rate of sustaining drives, they’re 9th. Peyton Manning is completing 69.7% of his passes for 8.2 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, all above his career averages. Their only issue is that they’re -4 in turnovers, but they’re improving in that area, though Willis McGahee’s fumbling problem is an issue.

I’m scared to bet against Manning, but I’m also worried this could be the week that San Diego turns it on. I’m taking the Chargers just to fade the public and because if the Chargers are down 10-14 late driving for the backdoor cover, I’d rather have them than Denver, though it’s close because I really like Denver’s defense, especially since they started giving Tony Carter more playing time.

Public lean: Denver (70% range)

Sharps lean: SD 11 DEN 5

Final update: No change.

Denver Broncos 27 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against spread: San Diego +8 (-110) 1 unit

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Denver Broncos: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 5 (+0)

Record: 6-3

It’s weird to say, but Tracy Porter getting sick was the turning point for their season. Obviously, I wish the best for Porter in his recovery from him mysterious illness, but as well as Peyton Manning is playing, they wouldn’t be a complete team if it weren’t for Chris Harris and Tony Carter stepping up and playing phenomenal in their secondary and that wouldn’t have happened if Porter were playing.

They haven’t lost since Porter went out. Harris and Porter are both former undrafted cornerbacks who were afterthoughts on the depth chart that Jack Del Rio has playing out of their minds. Carter is allowing 11 of 32 for 115 yards, 2 interceptions, 4 deflections, and 1 penalty and is unfortunately not even on the Pro-Bowl ballot. Chris Harris, meanwhile, is allowing 23 of 40 for 255 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 1 pass and committing just 1 penalty. He also has 3 sacks and is playing the run very well.

They rank 6th in pass defense, 2nd in run defense and lead the league in yards per play differential. In rate of sustaining drives, they’re 9th. Peyton Manning is completing 69.7% of his passes for 8.2 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, all above his career averages. Their only issue is that they’re -4 in turnovers, but they’re improving in that area, though Willis McGahee’s fumbling problem is an issue. Only Tampa Bay and Baltimore are likely playoff teams remaining on their schedule, so they should be able to go around 12-4 and get either the 2nd or 3rd seed in the AFC depending on what happens with New England (remember, the Patriots won head-to-head, so they have the tiebreaker).

Studs

QB Peyton Manning: 27 of 38 for 301 yards and a touchdown, 4 drops, 104.4 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 6 of 40 drop backs (1 sack, 3 of 5)

RG Manuel Ramirez: Did not allow a pressure on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts

WR Demaryius Thomas: Caught 9 passes for 135 yards on 11 attempts on 41 pass snaps, 4.1 YAC per catch, 1 drop

WR Trindon Holliday: Caught 2 passes for 17 yards on 2 attempts on 3 pass snaps, 8.5 YAC per catch, 8 punt returns for 125 yards and a touchdown

CB Tony Carter: Allowed 2 catches for 30 yards on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

ROLB Von Miller: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback hurries on 36 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 penalty

RE Robert Ayers: 1 sack, 3 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

CB Champ Bailey: Allowed 1 catch for 19 yards on 3 attempts, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

P Britton Colquitt: 6 punts for 288 yards, 3 inside 20, 3 returns for 10 yards, 46.3 net yards per punt

Duds

RB Willis McGahee: Rushed for 56 yards (24 after contact) on 14 attempts, 2 fumbles, 1 penalty, caught 4 passes for 33 yards on 6 attempts, 1 drop

WR Eric Decker: Caught 2 passes for 15 yards on 4 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops

LOLB Wesley Woodyard: 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, allowed 4 catches for 55 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts

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Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Broncos, Panthers

Denver Broncos (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-6)

The Broncos sit at 5-3 and rank 2nd in yards per play differential and 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential with momentum on their side and they’ve done this despite one of the toughest schedules in the league thus far. From this point on, they have one of the league’s easiest schedules, with games against Tampa Bay, Carolina, San Diego, Oakland, Baltimore, Cleveland, and two against Kansas City. They should coast to a great record and at least the #3 seed in the AFC.

That being said, this game won’t be a walk in the park for them. The Panthers are an underrated bunch right now. Despite their record (2-6), they have only 1 loss by more than a touchdown and that was on Thursday Night Football against the Giants. I don’t put too much stock into what happens on Thursday Nights because it’s so tough to prepare to play a team on 3 days rest, so I don’t really hold that against Carolina too much, especially since that was week 3 and they’ve been competitive every week since.

Even weighting that loss to the Giants equal to the rest of their games, we are still getting line value with the Panthers. Using the yards per play differential method, we get Denver -1 and using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, we get Denver -5. If we average those out, we get Denver -3, which is 1.5 points lower than where this spread currently is. Also remember, while Denver has played a very tough schedule thus far, Carolina comes from by far the tougher of the two conferences. The AFC is just 13-23 against the NFC this year.

Carolina is also in a good spot as home dogs off a win as road dogs; they won as road dogs in Washington last weekend. Teams are 27-19 ATS in this spot since 2008 and if we go all the way back to 1989, that trend becomes 122-82 ATS. Meanwhile, they are probably dogs before being favorites. The early line for their game against Tampa Bay next week is Carolina -1.5, though that could change. Teams are 89-50 ATS in this spot since 2011, though that trend does shrink to 65-47 ATS since 2008 when the current game is non-divisional and their next game is divisional. Carolina could overlook non-conference Denver for Tampa Bay, I guess, but Denver is much more likely to overlook “crappy” non-conference Carolina.

Denver is also in a good spot as road favorites off a win as road favorites. Teams, in general, tend to cover in their 2nd straight road game. It’s most powerful when dealing with road dogs off a road loss, but road favorites off a win as road favorites is a trend too and Denver won as road favorites in Cincinnati last week. Teams are 48-29 ATS since 2002 in that spot. However, Denver is a massive public lean, the biggest of the week.

As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back. I think I’d be crazy to bet on Denver this week, given the circumstances, especially with some trends in Carolina’s favor. If there’s a sharps lean on this game, I might consider boosting it to a 3 unit significant play and make a play on the money line too.

Public lean: Denver (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

Sharps lean: DEN 16 CAR 8

Final update: Didn’t see that coming. I’m not boosting this to 3 units, but I’m not dropping any units either. Denver is the biggest public lean of the week.

Denver Broncos 27 Carolina Panthers 24

Pick against spread: Carolina +4.5 (-110) 2 units

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Denver Broncos: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 5 (+0)

Record: 5-3

The Broncos sit at 5-3 and rank 2nd in yards per play differential and 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential with momentum on their side and they’ve done this despite one of the toughest schedules in the league thus far. From this point on, they have one of the league’s easiest schedules, with games against Tampa Bay, Carolina, San Diego, Oakland, Baltimore, Cleveland, and two against Kansas City. They could challenge the Patriots’ for the 2nd seed in the AFC, but the Patriots have the tiebreaker, so they have the advantage there. That would leave Peyton Manning the Broncos in the 3rd seed and possibly facing his replacement Andrew Luck and his greatest rival Tom Brady in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs.

Studs

QB Peyton Manning: 27 of 35 for 291 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, 4 drops, 108.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 3 of 35 drop backs (2 of 3, 1 interception)

C Dan Koppen: Didn’t allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 34 yards on 7 attempts

RT Orlando Franklin: Didn’t allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps

RG Chris Kuper: Didn’t allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 6 attempts

LOLB Wesley Woodyard: Allowed 6 catches for 29 yards on 8 attempts, 10 solo tackles, 3 assists, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

CB Chris Harris: Allowed 2 catches for 12 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles

CB Tony Carter: Allowed 1 catch for 17 yards on 4 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 solo tackle

ROLB Von Miller: 3 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, 2 quarterback hurries, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RB Willis McGahee: Rushed for 66 yards (51 after contact) on 23 carries, 1 broken tackle, caught 1 pass for 4 yards on 1 attempt

SS Mike Adams: Allowed 5 catches for 49 yards on 5 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

LE Derek Wolfe: 1 quarterback hurry on 47 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

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Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bengals, Broncos

Denver Broncos (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-4)

The Broncos rank 2nd in the league in yards per play differential at 1.4, just .1 behind San Francisco, who has looked untouchable for weeks in that category. No one else is above 0.7. They rank just 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential, thanks to a 3rd down defense that’s 20th. However, they were much better in this area against the Saints in a complete, shut down victory. New Orleans went just 1 of 12 on 3rd down.

The Broncos rank 6th in the league against both the pass and the run on a per play basis and Peyton Manning is playing like vintage Peyton Manning right now, if not better, as he’s completed 107 of 142 for 1289 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 1 interception in his last 4 games. On the season, he’s completing 68.5% of his passes for an average of 8.2 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, all ahead of career averages. And they’re doing this all against the league’s toughest schedule so far, in terms of opponent’s winning percentage.

The Bengals, meanwhile, have yet to beat a playoff team in the Andy Dalton era, unless Washington, Cleveland, or Jacksonville make the playoffs this year (I’m going to go with no). They lost to 8 such teams last year and probably 1 or 2 this year (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Miami). Besides, I’m not even sure they’re as good as they were last year. Last year, they were 9-0 against non-playoff teams. This year, they lost to Cleveland and Miami (though Miami might end up being a playoff team).

Every year, one team goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. As the league’s worst playoff team last year, the Bengals were my preseason favorite to be that team. Now they stand at 3-4, after a 3-1 start, and they play possible playoff teams in 7 of their final 9 games, including here. This is the exact type of team Andy Dalton has trouble with. He completed 55.6% of his passes for an average of 6.5 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in those 8 games against playoff teams last year.

Against Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Miami, he is a combined 62 of 108 for 560 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions this year. Jay Gruden’s scheme can mask his deficiencies well against average or worse teams, but scheme alone won’t do it against good defenses. The Broncos defense just made Drew Brees struggle, so I don’t think they’ll have much trouble with Dalton this week.

I mentioned where the Broncos stand in yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential, the Bengals rank 12th and 25th in those two statistics respectively. Like the Broncos, they rank significantly better in yards per play differential. However, the yards per play differential method gives us a “real” line of -5.5, while the rate of sustaining drives method gives us a “real” line of -2.5. This line is right where it’s supposed to be, right in the middle at -4, if you don’t consider that the Broncos have all the momentum, which they do. I don’t have any trends for either side, but I don’t expect Dalton to beat his first playoff team this week. It’d be a bigger play if the public wasn’t pounding Denver.

Public lean: Denver (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cincinnati covers)

Sharps lean: DEN 12 CIN 8

Final Update: No change.

Denver Broncos 27 Cincinnati Bengals 16

Pick against spread: Denver -4 (-110) 2 units

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Denver Broncos: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 9 (+3)

Record: 4-3

The Broncos rank 2nd in the league in yards per play differential at 1.4, just .1 behind San Francisco, who has looked untouchable for weeks in that category. No one else is above 0.7. They rank just 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential, thanks to a 3rd down defense that 20th. However, they were much better in this area against the Saints in a complete, shut down victory. New Orleans went just 1 of 12 on 3rd down.

The Broncos rank 6th in the league against both the pass and the run on a per play basis and Peyton Manning is playing like vintage Peyton Manning right now, if not better, as he’s completed 107 of 142 for 1289 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 1 interception in his last 4 games. On the season, he’s completing 68.5% of his passes for an average of 8.2 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, all ahead of career averages. And they’re doing this all against the league’s toughest schedule so far, in terms of opponent’s winning percentage. The rest of the way, they have the easiest schedule. It’s weird to think that just 6 quarters, they looked on the verge of 2-4 and done.

Studs

QB Peyton Manning: 22 of 30 for 305 yards and 3 touchdowns, 1 hit as thrown, 1 drop, 113.8 adjusted QB rating

RB Willis McGahee: Rushed for 122 yards (61 after contact) and a touchdown on 23 attempts, 3 broken tackles, 1 fumble, caught 2 passes for 33 yards on 2 attempts

LT Ryan Clady: Did not allow a pressure on 33 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 14 yards on 5 attempts

RT Orlando Franklin: Did not allow a pressure on 33 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 37 yards on 6 attempts

RG Chris Kuper: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 31 yards on 4 attempts

WR Demaryius Thomas: Caught 7 passes for 137 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

ROLB Von Miller: 2 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

LOLB Wesley Woodyard: 8 solo tackles, 4 assist, 6 stops, 1 stop, allowed 3 catches for 13 yards on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 1 sack on 11 blitzes

CB Champ Bailey: Allowed 3 catches for 31 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 1 stop

CB Chris Harris: Allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

CB Tony Carter: Allowed 3 catches for 29 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

K Matt Prater: 6 kickoffs, 6 touch backs, 75.0 yards per kickoff, 20.0 opponent’s average starting distance, 2/2 FG (33, 33)

Duds

RE Elvis Dumervil: 1 quarterback hurry on 41 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle

MLB Danny Trevathan: Allowed 4 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

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New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Broncos, Saints

New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Denver Broncos (3-3)

Drew Brees looks like Drew Brees again. He struggled, by his standards, in his first few games out of the gate, but you had to figure that eventually he’d get it together, even without Sean Payton, because he’s just too talented. In his last 3 games, he’s completed 91 of 136 for 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He’s now on pace for 5592 yards, which would break his own record set just last year, and he’s got a legitimate chance to do that if he continues to play this well or close to this well because of his team’s atrocious defense and running game. He’s currently on pace for 728 passing attempts, which would shatter Drew Bledsoe’s 18 year old record of 691.

However, just because Drew Brees looks like Drew Brees again doesn’t mean the Saints are the Saints again. They can’t run the ball or stop anyone. They rank dead last in the NFL in rushing yards and rushing attempts and 26th in rushing yards per carry. Defensively, they rank 29th against the run, dead last against the pass, dead last in pass rush efficiency, and 29th in points per game allowed, allowing 30.3 per game. As a result, they’ve had to pass 273 times to 122 runs, not including quarterback scrambles and sacks, which were designed passes that don’t count as pass attempts.

You might not think of defense and running the football when you think of the Saints, but whenever they’ve been good, it’s something they’ve done. In 2009 when they won the Super Bowl, they ranked 6th in the league in rushing yards, 7th in the league in YPC, and allowed just 21.3 points per game. Last year, when they won 13 games, they allowed 21.2 points per game, ranked 6th in rushing yards, and 4th in YPC.

This year, they remind me a lot more of the 2008 Saints, when Drew Brees threw for over 5000 yards, but the team went 8-8 because he didn’t have any help. They ranked 28th in rushing yards, 23rd in yards per carry, and allowed 24.6 points per game, good for 26th in the league. Drew Brees might look like Drew Brees, but the Saints aren’t the Saints, even though people do seem to think they’re back. As a result, they’re a heavily backed underdog at +6 in Denver this week.

In order to see how overrated the Saints are, we need to look at where they rank in terms of yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential. The former measures pure yards per play as opposed to their opponent’s, while the latter measures how often they convert any given set of downs for a first down or score, as opposed to their opponents. They rank just 26th in yards per play differential and 23rd in rate of sustaining drives differential.

Denver, meanwhile, ranks 2nd in yards per play differential and 13th in rate of sustaining drives. We can calculate “real” line using those two numbers and we get a real line of Denver -13.5 for the yards per play differential method and Denver -6.5 for the rate of sustaining drives method. The disparity is the reason I use both numbers because some teams can get a lot of big plays, but struggle to sustain drives or vice versa (and the opposite defensively), but both suggest we’re getting line value with the Broncos. This line is at -6 and the Saints are still a heavy publicly backed dog.

Speaking of the Saints being a heavy publicly backed underdog, I mentioned in earlier picks this week that, with one exception and one borderline exception, you’d have to be crazy to pick a public underdog this week. Underdogs are 63-39 ATS this year. Eventually, that will even out. It always does. Neither dogs nor favorites have finished more than 10 games over .500 ATS in the last decade at least. If you can get a situation where you can pick a favorite this week and simultaneously fade the public (the odds makers always win in the long run), you have to take it unless you have a really good reason not to. Given that the Saints are overrated right now, there isn’t a good reason not to here.

I also like Denver at home more than I like them on the road because they can run the hurry up in the thin atmosphere and tire out opponents. They’ve gotten 2 double digits wins at home this year, including a blowout over the Raiders, and hung close with the Texans. The Saints don’t travel well anyway. The Broncos have also played an awful tough schedule early playing the Steelers, Falcons, Texans, Raiders, Patriots, and Chargers. They’re better than their record would suggest.

Public lean: New Orleans (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Denver covers)

Sharps lean: NO 14 DEN 6

Final update: No change.

Denver Broncos 34 New Orleans Saints 24

Pick against spread: Denver -6 (-110) 2 units

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