Broncos

Denver Broncos: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 9 (+0)

Record: 3-3

In the first half against San Diego, you had to wonder if Peyton Manning was questioning his decision to join this team. He was meeting or exceeding his career averages across the board and yet his team was 2-3. He was playing a good game and yet he was down 24-0 because of two special teams fumbles, Eric Decker tripping on the way to an easy touchdown, and Matt Willis running the wrong route against a blitz. However, then his defense picked him up by forcing five 2nd half turnovers and it was all good.

Studs

QB Peyton Manning: 24 of 30 for 309 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception, 1 throw away, 1 batted pass, 2 drops, 113.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 5 of 30 drop backs (2 of 5, 1 throw away, 1 interception)

LT Ryan Clady: Did not allow a pressure on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 33 yards on 5 attempts

RT Orlando Franklin: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempts, 1 penalty

CB Chris Harris: Allowed 5 catches for 52 yards on 9 attempts, 2 interceptions, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Wesley Woodyard: 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 5 stops, allowed 2 catches for 7 yards on 4 attempts, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 11 blitzes

CB Tony Carter: Allowed 1 catch for 12 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 interception, 2 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

RE Elvis Dumervil: 2 sacks and 4 quarterback hurries on 42 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 4 stops

Duds

SS Mike Adams: Allowed 8 catches for 99 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts, 1 penalty, 8 solo tackles, 2 stops

CB Omar Bolden: 4 kickoff returns for 68 yards, 1 fumble

WR Trindon Holliday: 2 punt returns for 12 yards, 1 fumble

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Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers

Denver Broncos (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (3-2)

From 2003-2010, Peyton Manning was 14-2 ATS as an underdog. This year he is 0-3. Does that mean he’s done or not the same player? Not necessarily. His QB rating is actually 6 points higher than his career average and his completion percentage (66.0%), his YPA (7.7), and his TD/INT ratio (11/3) are all better or equal to his career averages.

This week, we get another chance to bet on him as an underdog, and I’m going to take it for the 3rd straight time (I didn’t take it in Atlanta week 2 because of how good Matt Ryan is at home). I can’t really explain why he’s 0-3 ATS as a dog this year. He’s not playing poorly. His team isn’t either, ranking 4th in the NFL in yards per play differential (more on that later). I just expect it to eventually correct itself. Manning on Monday Night Football is another good betting spot, as he’s 10-5 ATS on Monday Nights, even including that week 2 loss to Atlanta.

Now onto that aforementioned 4th ranked yards per play differential, they have the edge by .9 yards per play over San Diego, who is actually negative. Divide that by .15 to get 6 and add 3 points for home field and you get a “real” line of Denver -3. Not only are we getting Peyton Manning as a dog, but we’re getting Peyton Manning as a dog in a situation where he deserves to be the favorite.

I haven’t been impressed at all by San Diego’s “strong start.” Not only are they negative in yards per play differential, they haven’t really beaten anyone. Much like last year, this normally slow starting team (10-13 in weeks 1-6 and 38-20 afterwards from 2007-2010) has a good early record because they’ve beaten up on crappy teams. Is anyone impressed by their wins over Oakland (1-3), Tennessee (2-4), and Kansas City (1-4)? How about their home blowout loss to the Falcons (5-0) or their loss in New Orleans (1-4)? The Broncos, meanwhile, have a brutal schedule (Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Houston, Oakland, New England) and have still yet to lose by more than 10.

The Broncos are also have a few trends on their side. Road dogs are 60-40 ATS since 2008 off a loss as road dogs. Meanwhile, teams are 73-48 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 20-8 ATS off a loss as dogs. The Broncos host the Saints next week. The Broncos do have a bye in between, which weakens the trend a bit, but dogs before a bye who will be favorites after the bye are 52-33 ATS since 1989, so there’s still a trend.

I hate betting on publicly backed underdogs, which is what Denver is this week and we’ve lost some line value because this opened at -3, but the large amount of action on Denver has brought it down to -1, which is another bad sign. The odds makers seem to not mind if people bet on Denver, or maybe even they want them to. That being said, I love Denver this week.

The combination of getting points with Peyton Manning and the better team, on Monday Night Football, with powerful situational trends in their favor is too much to pass on. This is a significant play. Instead of putting 3 units on the spread and 1 unit on the money line, I’m putting all 4 on the money line. 1 point games are rare, about 2% of the time, and it’s not worth the extra 15 cents to be protected against something that would hurt me 1% of the time.

Public lean: Denver (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if San Diego covers)

Sharps lean: DEN 18 SD 9

Final update: No change.

Denver Broncos 27 San Diego Chargers 17 Upset Pick +105 4 units

Pick against spread: Denver +1 (-110) 0 units

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Denver Broncos: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 9 (+0)

Record: 2-3

From 2006-2010, Peyton Manning was 12-1 ATS as an underdog. This year he is 0-3. Does that mean he’s done or not the same player? Not necessarily. His QB rating is actually 6 points higher than his career average and his completion percentage (66.0%), his YPA (7.7), and his TD/INT ratio (11/3) are all better or equal to his career averages. He’s had a brutal schedule (Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Houston, Oakland, New England) and has still yet to lose by more than 10. He’s got another chance as an underdog this week in San Diego in a pivotal divisional matchup. The Broncos do still rank 4th in the league in yards per play differential

Studs

QB Peyton Manning: 31 of 44 for 345 yards and 3 touchdowns, 2 drops, 2 throw aways, 1 batted pass, 105.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 47 drop backs (2 sacks, 4 of 8, 2 throw aways)

RG Manuel Ramirez: Did not allow a pressure on 48 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts

C Dan Koppen: Did not allow a pressure on 48 pass block snaps, run blocked for 43 yards on 9 attempts

WR Demaryius Thomas: Caught 9 passes for 188 yards on 10 attempts on 43 pass snaps, 5.7 YAC per catch, 1 drop

ROLB Von Miller: 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries on 22 pass rush snaps, 6 solo tackles, 7 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

WR Eric Decker: Caught 4 passes for 21 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts on 47 pass snaps, 0.3 YAC per catch

MLB Joe Mays: Allowed 5 catches for 55 yards on 6 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles, 1 penalty

LE Elvis Dumervil: Did not record a pressure on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

RE Derek Wolfe: 1 sack on 34 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

DT Mitch Unrein: 1 quarterback hit on 17 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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Denver Broncos (2-2) at New England Patriots (2-2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Broncos, Patriots

Denver Broncos (2-2) at New England Patriots (2-2)

We were without it for a year, but NFL fans will get to see Brady/Manning once again this year, their 13th meeting. What Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have done over the past few years is very impressive, but no one compares to Brady and Manning when you look at the last 10 years or so as a whole. This is one of the greatest rivalries in NFL history and this might be the last time (or at the very least, one of the last times), we ever get to see it, with the two star quarterbacks aging, so this is obviously the game to watch this week. It’s not just that they’re great quarterbacks, but it’s how close and entertaining these games are. We can only hope that once these two have moved on, two quarterbacks will have a rivalry to take their place (best candidate would be Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning, because of Drew Brees’ age).

Both quarterbacks are getting towards the tail ends of their careers, but both are still playing at a high level. Brady looks the closest to his vintage self (actually, he’s almost identical to his vintage self), completing 65.6% of his passes for 7.5 YPA and 7 touchdowns to 1 interceptions, all of which are better than his career averages.

Manning, meanwhile, isn’t quite the same, as you would expect since he’s a year older and has a 4 times operated on neck. However, he hasn’t been bad at all this year, completing 64.7% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, which are all right around his career averages, very impressive considering what he’s been through. He’s also done that in spite of a very tough schedule, facing Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Houston to kick off the season, before finally getting an easy one last week and having a breakout game against Oakland, completing 30 of 38 for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns. New England is a tough opponent, but their pass defense isn’t very good, so he should have a good game once again in what figures to be a shoot out.

Shoot outs are the norm for these two, as you would expect. The over is 8-4 in their 12 meetings, including 7-2 in the regular season. Because of that, I’m going to lay a unit on the over, even though I rarely make a play on the total. The total is 52 in this one. By the way, since 2010, totals larger than 50 have won over 58 times and under just 40 times.

These games are normally close too. The last 5 have all been decided by a touchdown or fewer, including the last 4 by 4 points or fewer. This week, we’re getting -6.5 points with Manning. That’s the highest the line has been in a matchup between these two quarterbacks since 2001, Brady’s first year as a starter. In fact, since then, the line has never been higher than 4. In Manning’s career as a whole, he’s only once been an underdog of 7 points or more (excluding games in which he didn’t play the entirety and excluding his rookie season of 1998). For what it’s worth, he covered and won.

The reason we’re getting so many points with him probably has something to do with public overreaction, thinking that Manning is done, when, in fact, as I illustrated earlier, he’s far from it. Despite everything he’s been through, a new and probably inferior supporting cast, and a tough slate of games so far, Manning has been about career average thus far. Against a Patriots’ secondary that allows 7.7 YPA, tied for 24th in the league, despite facing Jake Locker, Kevin Kolb, Joe Flacco, and Ryan Fitzpatrick, Manning should have another huge day.

Meanwhile, these teams are much more evenly matched than this line suggests. In fact, Denver has a .5 yards per play edge in yards per play differential. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and add 3 points either way for homefield, which suggests this line should actually be -0.5 in favor of Denver. It’s important to add a human element this time. I don’t think that’s fully accurate. Denver is a much better home team than road team with the combination of their no huddle offense and the thin atmosphere and it think, at most, these two teams are comparable. Still, either way, we’re getting some line value with Denver.

Besides, Peyton Manning is 10-3 ATS as an underdog since 2006 (excluding meaningless week 17 games). He’s 0-2 this year, but he hasn’t been an underdog this large yet and since he hasn’t really seen a decrease in production, that’s not necessarily a sign that he’s lost his touch. I really feel like we’re going to get a vintage Brady/Manning game this week, one that will be very close, so even though I like the Patriots to win at home, I’m grabbing the points and taking Peyton Manning as the largest underdog he’s been since 2002 for a significant play.

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Denver covers)

Sharps lean: DEN 12 NE 10

Final update: Nothing to see here. Still like Denver.

New England Patriots 34 Denver Broncos 31

Pick against spread: Denver +6.5 (-110) 3 units

Over/Under: Over 52 1 unit

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Denver Broncos: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 9 (+0)

Record 2-2

See, Peyton Manning wasn’t done. He just needed to face the Raiders. After 3 less than stellar performances in his first 3 games against tough defenses (Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Houston), Manning exploded for 338 yards and 3 touchdowns on 30 of 38 passing against the Raiders’ lowly defense. He’s not the player he once was, but he’s still pretty good. Next up for the Broncos is another tough test as they head to New England, but New England’s defense isn’t great so Manning should be able to post good numbers in a shoot out.

Studs

RB Willis McGahee: Rushed for 112 yards (54 after contact) and a touchdown on 19 carries, 3 broken tackles, caught 6 passes for 23 yards on 6 attempts

QB Peyton Manning: 30 of 38 for 338 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 batted passes, 1 dropped pass, 99.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 38 drop backs (0 sacks, 4 of 7, 1 drop)

LT Ryan Clady: Did not allow a pressure on 39 pass block snaps

RG Manuel Ramirez: Did not allow a pressure on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 20 yards on 4 attempts

CB Champ Bailey: Allowed 3 catches for 26 yards on 7 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 2 stops

LE Elvis Dumervil: 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

ROLB Von Miller: 3 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops

K Matt Prater: 8 kickoffs, 8 touchbacks, 74.8 yards per kickoff, 20.0 opponent’s average starting distance, 3/3 FG (21, 43, 53)

Duds

CB Tracy Porter: Allowed 4 catches for 76 yards on 7 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

RE Derek Wolfe: Did not record a pressure on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Broncos, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (1-2) at Denver Broncos (1-2)

I thought the Raiders were overrated coming into the season and now they’re even more overrated coming off a “surprising” win over the Steelers. Their upset win over the Steelers was not completely shocking given how much the Steelers have sucked over the last year plus on the road. They are -43 on the road in that time period, including playoffs, and +137 at home. They beat Indianapolis by just 3, Kansas City by just 4, and Cleveland by just 3 last year.

Given that they were missing James Harrison and Troy Polamalu last weekend, this upset was not shocking. There’s a reason I made it a very small pick even though Pittsburgh had the clear on paper advantage. The Raiders are one of 15 1-2 teams in the NFL right now. Some of them are going to make the playoffs, some of them are going to be terrible. I think this team is one of the latter. Remember, they lost 35-13 to the Dolphins just 2 weeks ago.

Their defense has been exactly as you’d expect from a defense that ranked 29th in scoring last year and then who lost their top cornerback and top pass rusher this offseason. Injuries have hammered them on that side of the ball too as linebacker Aaron Curry is expected to miss the entire season, while top cornerback Ronald Bartell will miss at least 6 weeks after being put on non-season ending IR.

Shawntae Spencer, another starting cornerback, could also miss this game. Spencer isn’t very good, but he was a starter at a very thin position to begin with. After failing to return everyone at the position who played a single snap for them in 2011, the Raiders have lost their top two cornerbacks with injury and will likely start Patrick Lee and Phillip Adams in this one. Meanwhile, defensive tackles Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly are showing their age. They allowed 36 catches on 49 attempts for 384 yards and 4 touchdowns to Ben Roethlisberger and 433 total yards even in a winning effort last week. Yeah, good luck containing Peyton Manning.

The Raiders’ offense has been better and they were able to keep up with the Steelers last week, but I don’t expect that they’ll be able to do that this week. If they allow 31 points this week, they’ll probably lose easily. The Steelers’ defensive effort was pitiful last weekend on the road, missing James Harrison and Troy Polamalu. The Broncos have been one of the better defensive teams in the league this season and the Raiders will be without Darrius Heyward-Bey, so they’ll really only have one reliable receiver, Denarius Moore. Champ Bailey should be able to shut him down.

While the Raiders are a little overrated, the Broncos are a little underrated. Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Houston, talk about being welcomed back to the NFL harshly for Peyton Manning. The Broncos stand at 1-2, but they rank 9th in yards per play differential and they’ve been competitive in all 3 games despite a tough schedule. They should still be very tough to beat at home with their no huddle in the high altitude, despite a loss to a Houston team that might be the best in the league, and make the playoffs propelled by a 6-2 or 7-1 home record.

With a much, much easier matchup and in his 4th game back, Peyton Manning should be able to have by far his best game, and he hasn’t been terrible at all considering the matchups, completing 60.0% of his passes for 7.2 YPA and 5 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. I just don’t see any way this patchwork Raiders defense has any chance of stopping Manning and his no huddle offense in the high altitude. The Broncos should get into the 30s again and I don’t trust the Raiders to keep up. Despite 34 points last week, they average just 20.3 points play game.

One trend works against the Broncos, favorites off a loss as a dog before being dogs are 51-77 ATS since 2008. Teams tend to see those games as a breather and be flat, but this is a divisional game so it’s less likely they’ll be flat (11-16 ATS in that situation in a divisional game between two non-divisional games). Besides, at 1-2, this is a really important game for them.

Public lean: Denver (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Oakland covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): OAK 4 DEN 7

Denver Broncos 31 Oakland Raiders 17

Pick against spread: Denver -7 (-110) 3 units

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Denver Broncos: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 9 (+1)

Record: 1-2

Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Houston, talk about being welcomed back to the NFL harshly for Peyton Manning. The Broncos stand at 1-2, but they rank 9th in points per play differential and they’ve been competitive in all 3 games despite a tough schedule. They should still be very tough to beat at home with their no huddle in the high altitude, despite a loss to a Houston team that might be the best in the league, and make the playoffs propelled by a 6-2 or 7-1 home record. This week, they have a great chance to bounce back with the Raiders coming to town.

Denver Broncos

Studs

LT Ryan Clady: Did not allow a pressure on 60 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

C JD Walton: Did not allow a pressure on 60 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt, run blocked for 34 yards on 8 attempts

RE Elvis Dumervil: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback pressures on 24 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

DT Kevin Vickerson: 2 quarterback hurries on 17 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist and 3 stops

DT Justin Bannan: 2 quarterback hurries on 16 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles and 3 stops

P Britton Colquitt: 8 punts for 381 yards, 3 inside 20, 4 returns for 19 yards, 42.8 net yards per punt

Duds

RB Willis McGahee: Rushed for 36 yards (22 after contact) on 12 carries, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 8 pass block snaps, 1 catch for 6 yards on 2 attempts, 1 drop

RG Manuel Ramirez: Allowed 3 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 60 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempts

RT Orlando Franklin: Allowed 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 60 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts

WR Demarius Thomas: Caught 3 passes for 36 yards on 11 attempts on 59 pass snaps, 2 drops, 7.3 YAC per catch

TE Jacob Tamme: 3 catches for 31 yards on 9 attempts on 37 pass snaps, 1.1 YAC per catch

RB Lance Ball: Rushed for 16 yards (11 after contact) on 7 carries, 1 catch for -4 yards on 3 attempts, 1 drop

CB Tracy Porter: Allowed 4 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

LOLB Keith Brooking: Allowed 2 catches for 29 yards on 2 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, and 1 stop

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Houston Texans at Denver Broncos: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Broncos, Texans

Houston Texans (2-0) at Denver Broncos (1-1)

No line has moved more over the past week than this one. Last week, this line was -2.5 in favor of Denver and now it’s -2 in favor of Houston. Why? Because Houston blew out the lowly Jaguars? Because Denver lost by 6 in Atlanta, one of the toughest places to play in the National Football League? I don’t get it. This line should probably be around -2.5 or -3 because these teams are pretty evenly matched (3 points is home field advantage).

Speaking of home field advantage, I’ve said before that I expect the Broncos to have one of the best home/road disparities in the NFL this season. They have a huge advantage at home, running the no huddle against defenses not used to playing in the thin air, but on the road, not only do they not have that advantage, but in noisy atmospheres like Atlanta last week, it’s tough to communicate your signals on audibles at the line.

Last week, they lost in Atlanta, one of the toughest places in the league to play, but it wasn’t too bad. Despite a disastrous 1st quarter, the Broncos only lost by 6 and outgained the Falcons 336 to 275. The reason they lost was because they lost the turnover battle 4-0. That probably won’t happen again. Not only are turnovers inconsistent on a weekly basis anyway, but it just doesn’t feel like something that happens to Peyton Manning quarterbacked teams all that often. And the reason it doesn’t feel like that is because it actually doesn’t happen much. In Peyton Manning’s career before last week, his team had only lost the turnover differential battle by 4 or more 6 times and 4 of those times were in 2001 or earlier.

Turnovers aside, the Broncos have been one of the best teams in the league so far this year, ranking 3rd in yards per play differential, which is my favorite stat and one that I feel is the best indicator of future success. And the Broncos have done that against a tough schedule, playing two playoff teams from last year, Pittsburgh and Atlanta. The Texans, meanwhile, rank 7th despite playing Miami and Jacksonville.

This week, the Broncos get another tough test as they face the Texans, but they also return home where, as I mentioned, they have a huge advantage because they run a no huddle against teams not used to playing in the thin air. The Texans have one of the best defenses in the league, but so does Pittsburgh and the Steelers still eventually got winded and surrendered 31 points in a 31-19 loss week 1. I envision a similar outcome here. The Texans will be in it for a while, before Denver finally prevails and possibly by double digits. I’m not betting against them at home, especially as underdogs.

Speaking of underdogs, Peyton Manning is 10-2 ATS as an underdog since 2006 (excluding meaningless week 17 games. If you’re wondering how he does as a home as an underdog, well there’s not a lot to go on. He’s only been a home underdog one other time in that time period and that was against the Patriots in 2007 (he covered, but did not win). I picked against him as an underdog in Atlanta last week because of the home/away disparity and because of how good Matt Ryan is at home, but this week, I really like Denver, especially against a Houston team that hasn’t played anyone yet this season. They might still be in close to preseason mode and not prepared for this test. I also like that despite the big line change, the public is on Houston heavily. I like to go against the public every chance I get (the public is 13-19 this year and getting killed in games like this where a ton of the action is on one side).

Public lean: Houston (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Denver covers)

Denver Broncos 27 Houston Texans 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Denver +2 (-110) 3 units

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Denver Broncos: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 9 (-1)

Record: 1-1

I have a feeling the Broncos are going to be one of those teams with big home/road disparities in their records this season. They have a huge advantage at home, running the no huddle against defenses not used to playing in the thin air, but on the road, not only do they not have that advantage, but in noisy atmospheres like Atlanta last week, it’s tough to communicate your signals on audibles at the line. Expect something like 7-1 or 8-0 at home and 3-5 or 4-4 on the road. The biggest test to their home dominance might come this week as they head home to face Houston.

Studs

RT Orlando Franklin: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 45 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 50 yards on 5 carries

RB Willis McGahee: 113 yards (63 after contact) and 2 touchdowns on 22 carries, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 5 pass block snaps, 2 catches for 11 yards on 2 targets

CB Champ Bailey: Allowed 1 completion for 16 yards on 2 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists

ROLB Von Miller: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, 3 quarterback hurries on 27 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 4 stops

RE Elvis Dumervil: 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback pressures on 34 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

MLB Joe Mays: 5 solo tackles, 3 assists, 4 stops, 2 quarterback hurries on 5 blitzes, 1 penalty, allowed 2 catches for 27 yards on 3 attempts

P Britton Colquitt: 5 punts for 251 yards, 3 of 5 inside 20, 1 return for -2 yards, 50.6 net yards per punt

Duds

RG Manuel Ramirez: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 45 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 9 yards on 4 carries

WR Brandon Stokley: 3 catches for 27 yards on 6 attempts on 37 pass snaps, 0.3 YAC per catch, 2 interceptions when thrown to

LE Derek Wolfe: Did not record a pressure on 33 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Broncos place Ty Warren on IR, work out 3 defensive tackles

stevenlourie Broncos, News

Ty Warren can’t seem to catch a break. After missing the entirety of the last 2 seasons with separate injuries, Ty Warren’s 2012 season lasted just 1 game before he was put on IR after tearing his triceps again. Warren was not a huge part of the Broncos’ defense, but the Broncos need to replenish depth with him out and worked out 3 defensive tackles for the spot, Brian Price, Terrell McClain, and Daniel Muir, though they have not signed one yet.

Price and McClain would be the high risk, high reward guys. McClain was a 3rd round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, but really struggled last year and the Panthers surprisingly gave up on him after just 1 year, making him a final cut. Price, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2010, but he really struggled last year and after a tumultuous offseason filled with off the field distractions, Price started a fight with a teammate in Tampa Bay and was promptly shipped to the Bears for a late round pick. The Bears later made him a final cut. Both have upside, but neither have proven they can make good on it. Muir, meanwhile, is a veteran journeyman who offers no upside.

As for Warren, it’s definitely fair to wonder if this is the end of the line for the 2003 1st round pick and one time All-Pro. He’ll be a free agent next offseason and there won’t be a huge market for a 32 year old free agent who has missed 47 of 48 games over the last 3 seasons with injury. He already had to take a pay cut from 4 million to 1.5 million just to stay on the Broncos’ roster this season and might not find a single taker next offseason.

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