Quarterback

Three off-seasons ago, the Browns made a franchise changing move. After years of building their roster after an aggressive rebuilding process, the Browns felt they were a quarterback away from being legitimate contenders and traded three first round picks to Houston for Deshaun Watson, who they promptly gave a new fully guaranteed 5-year, 20 million dollar contract. It was a risky move and not just because of the price they paid to acquire him. Watson came with serious off-the-field accusations and a pending lengthy suspension, even after he had already sat out the entire 2021 season as his legal situation played out.

However, the one thing that didn’t seem to be a concern was his football ability. Watson was in the prime of his career and had career numbers of 67.8% completion, 8.32 YPA, 104 touchdowns, and 36 interceptions, along with 5.46 YPC and 17 touchdowns on the ground, including a career best year the last time he was on the field in 2020, when he completed 70.2% of his passes for an average of 8.87 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while rushing for 4.93 YPC and 3 touchdowns on 90 carries, leading to him ranking 2nd overall among quarterbacks on PFF with a 92.4 grade.

Watson missed the first eleven games of the 2022 season with his suspension and then was underwhelming upon his return, completing 58.2% of his passes for an average of 6.48 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. It was easy to chalk Watson’s underwhelming performance up to being rusty after missing a total of 28 games and adapting to a new scheme, but Watson continued to struggle in 2023, completing 61.4% of his passes for an average of 6.52 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 6 starts, before going down for the season with a shoulder injury. Upon his return in 2024, Watson was even worse, completing 63.4% of his passes for an average of 5.31 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in 7 starts, before going down for the season with a torn achilles. 

The reasons for Watson’s sudden regression in the middle of his career are not totally clear, but it probably has something to do with a combination of injuries, being a poor scheme fit, and being out of action for so long between the 2021 and 2022 seasons. Watson does have two years left on his contract, worth a combined 92 million guaranteed, but after his latest injury, the Browns are seemingly ready to give up on him and, even if they aren’t, it’s very possible he’s not healthy enough to play at all in 2025. Making matters worse, the quarterback they jettisoned when they acquired Watson, Baker Mayfield, has since broken out in Tampa Bay, completing 67.9% of his passes for an average of 7.52 YPA, 69 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions over the past two seasons. 

Probably the most frustrating thing about Watson’s struggles for the Browns is the fact that they were right that they were a quarterback away from being legitimate contenders. As poorly as Watson played in 2022 and 2023, the Browns were 8-4 in games he started and, even without him, the Browns made the post-season in 2023 despite starting five different quarterbacks because of the strength of the rest of this roster. However, with their roster getting older and with three missing first round picks as a result of the Watson trade, the rest of this team has declined significantly in 2024 and, still without a competent quarterback, the Browns finished last season 3-14.

This off-season, the Browns opted not to address the quarterback in a significant way, recognizing that this was a bad quarterback draft class and recognizing that their roster would need a multi-year rebuild either way. The Browns used their 2nd overall pick to trade down to the 5th overall pick and accumulated much needed extra draft picks in the process, including the Jaguars’ first round pick in what is projected to be a much better quarterback class next year. In the meantime, the Browns took fliers on former first round bust pick Kenny Pickett, 40-year-old Joe Flacco, and third and fifth round rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, in hopes that one of them can give them respectable quarterback play. Ultimately, that seems unlikely and that might be for the best, as losing as many games as possible would help the Browns secure a high pick in next year’s draft. 

Flacco went 4-1 for the Browns in 2023, but he was two years younger then and had about a league average 90.2 QB rating, mostly winning games because of a strong supporting cast that is no longer what it once was. Pickett was the 20th overall pick by the Steelers in 2022, but he was always a reach in a terrible quarterback draft and has shown nothing in three years in the league that suggests he should have been taken there, completing just 62.6% of his passes for an average of 6.31 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions in 25 starts with the Steelers and Eagles. Gabriel and Sanders have some upside, but ultimately the odds of finding even a solid starting quarterback outside of the top-50 picks of a draft are very slim, particularly when you consider that this was overall a bad quarterback draft class. It’s very likely that at least two or three of these options make starts for the Browns in 2025 and it’s also very likely that they all struggle.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

The Browns still have four of their five primary starting offensive linemen from their 2023 playoff team, but four of their five offensive line starters are on the wrong side of 30 and, overall, this group is not as good as it was two years ago. Center Ethan Pocic is the youngest of the over 30 offensive linemen, only going into his age 30 season this season. He’s been a solid starter for the past five seasons, finishing in the 60s and 70s on PFF in all five seasons, including a 71.4 PFF grade in 2023 and a 63.6 PFF grade in 2024. Given his age, he could remain a solid starter for another couple seasons, but it’s also possible he declines a little bit.

Right guard Wyatt Teller is going into his age 31 season. At his best, he was one of the top guards in the league, with PFF grades of 92.7 and 84.9 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, but he also maintained above average grades into 2022 and 2023, when he received grades of 70.3 and 72.9, before falling to 62.6 in 2024. It’s likely at this point in his career that he is on the decline and it’s very possible he’ll never be as good as he was in 2022-2023 again, let alone 2020-2021, but he probably will remain at least a capable starter.

Left guard Joel Bitonio is the oldest of the bunch, going into his age 34 season, and reportedly contemplated retirement this off-season. The 11-year veteran was consistently one of the best guards in the league in his prime, with eight seasons above 70 on PFF and four seasons above 80, but he has finished with grades of 68.0 and 63.9 over the past two seasons and it’s likely that is the best we can expect him from at this point in his career. It’s also possible he declines even further and struggles.

The Browns did sign Teven Jenkins to a 1-year, 3.05 million dollar deal in free agency to give themselves some insurance at guard. Jenkins, a 2021 2nd round pick, has performed at a pretty high level over the past three seasons, with PFF grades of 80.7, 72.6, and 75.4, but he has durability concerns, missing 23 of a possible 68 games in his career, with a maximum of 14 starts in a season, which is likely why he didn’t have a strong free agent market. As far as reserve guards go, he is one of the best in the league, as he arguably is good enough to start for a number of teams around the league. The Browns also have 2024 3rd round pick Zak ZInter, who struggled mightily with a 43.9 PFF grade across 233 snaps as a rookie, but who still has upside and could provide good depth at both guard and center.

At right tackle, Jack Conklin is going into his age 31 season. He actually missed most of the 2023 season with an injury he suffered week 1, which carried into 2024, when he missed the first four games of the season. Having him healthy in 2025 would be one thing the Browns have in 2025 that they didn’t have in 2023, but it’s also unlikely the Browns go the full season without any offensive line injuries, so they won’t necessarily be healthier upfront in 2025 than they were in 2023, especially when you consider that injuries have cost Conklin at least five games in four of the past seven seasons, with 41 total games missed in those seven seasons. Conklin also saw his PFF grade fall to a career worst 66.2 in 2024 and, while he could bounce back a little bit in 2025, another year removed from injury, but it’s also very likely that his best days are behind him, given his age.

When Conklin was out in 2023, his primary replacement was Dawand Jones, who did a decent job with a 64.8 PFF grade in 9 starts, despite being just a 4th round rookie, before suffering his own season-ending injury. With left tackle Jedrick Wills, who had PFF grades of 54.0 and 52.9 in 2023 and 2024 respectively, no longer with the team, Jones is expected to take over as the starting left tackle in 2025, but his long-term trajectory doesn’t look as good now as it did after his solid rookie season, as he regressed significantly to a 46.4 PFF grade in 8 starts in 2024, before his season was ended by another significant injury. 

Coming off of a terrible season and back-to-back major injuries, Jones is a shaky starting option going into 2025. The only other option the Browns have though is veteran free agent addition Cornelius Lucas, who has been a solid swing tackle for most of his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in eight straight seasons, but who has also never made more than 12 starts in a season in his career and now is heading into his age 34 season. With a questionable situation at left tackle and the Browns’ other four expected starting offensive linemen on the wrong side of 30, the Browns’ offensive line has a lot of concerns, though at least they have above average depth if needed.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

In 2023, the Browns’ receiving corps was led by Amari Cooper, who had a great year, posting a 80.3 PFF grade, with a 72/1250/5 slash line and 2.31 yards per route run on just 128 targets, despite an inconsistent quarterback situation. Cooper declined significantly in 2024 though, not coincidentally his age 30 season, when he had just a 63.0 PFF grade with a 24/250/2 slash line and 1.46 yards per route run on 53 targets in 6 games, before being traded to the Bills mid-season. 

Fortunately, the Browns had Jerry Jeudy, who they acquired last off-season, to step up in his absence, but, while he did have an impressive 90/1229/4 slash line, he was far less efficient than Cooper was in 2023, totaling those numbers on 145 targets, averaging 1.72 yards per route run, and finishing with a 73.5 PFF grade as a result. In fact, Jeudy’s yards per route run average was lower than the average he had in his first four seasons in the league in Denver (1.83), when he averaged just a 53/763/3 slash line per season. Jeudy should still be productive in 2025, but that’s because he remains by far the top wide receiver option in an underwhelming position group.

After Jeudy on the depth chart, Cedric Tillman and Diontae Johnson are expected to be the Browns’ top wide receivers. Tillman, a 2023 3rd round pick, struggled mightily as a rookie with 0.63 yards per route run, before taking a step forward in his second season in the league, with 1.22 yards per route run. He could take another step forward in his third season in the league, but that’s far from a guarantee and, overall, he seems likely to be an underwhelming #2 wide receiver option. 

Diontae Johnson is much more proven, with an average of 1.70 yards per route run in his career and was primarily available on just a minimum one-year dollar deal in free agency this off-season because of issues he has had with coaching staffs in the past, especially last season, when he spent times on three different rosters, after spending the first five seasons of his career in Pittsburgh. As a result, he finished last season with a career worst 33/375/3 slash line. Johnson is only in his age 29 season and still averaged a decent 1.52 yards per route run last season, so if he can be coachable, he could be a solid receiving option, especially compared to Elijah Moore (0.91 yards per route run), who he is essentially replacing, but he comes with a lot of risk.

Behind their top-3 wide receivers, the Browns are very limited on options, as the other wide receivers on their roster are return man DeAndre Carter, who is heading into his age 32 season, with a career 1.11 yards per route run average, David Bell, a 2022 3rd round pick who hasn’t developed, averaging 0.92 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, Jamari Thrash, a 2024 5th round pick who averaged just 0.24 yards per route run as a rookie, and Michael Woods, a 2022 6th round pick with a career 0.38 yards per route run average. All four are bottom of the roster wide receiver talents, but if any of their top-3 receivers miss significant time with injury, one of them will be forced into a significant role, which is very likely, given how common injuries are.

With the issues the Browns have at wide receiver, expect them to lean heavily on tight end David Njoku, who had 123 targets in 2023 and 97 targets in just 11 games in 2014. Njoku was better in 2023 than 2024, with a 81/882/6 slash line and 1.70 yards per route run, as opposed to 64/505/5 and 1.33 yards per route run in 2024, but he is only in his age 29 season, so he could bounce back in 2025 if he’s healthy. The Browns added Harold Fannin in the third round of the draft, but I think that was more for depth purposes in the short-term and that he won’t cut heavily into Njoku’s workload. Fannin will replace Jordan Akins, a veteran who was decent in an expanded role last season with Njoku missing time, finishing the season with a 40/390/2 slash line and 1.24 yards per route run on 58 targets. Overall, this is an underwhelming receiving corps, with Njoku likely functioning as the #2 receiver.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

The Browns’ running game was a problem last season, as they ranked 29th in the NFL in carries, 29th in rushing yards, and 23rd in yards per carry at 4.11. Leading rusher Jerome Ford averaged 5.43 YPC on 104 carries, but 45.1% of his rushing yards came on 7 carries of 15+ yards and he averaged just 3.20 YPC on his other 97 carries. Ford was also the Browns’ leading rusher in 2023, when he averaged 3.99 YPC on 204 carries, with 32.7% of his yards coming on 8 carries of 15+ yards and a 2.79 YPC on his other 196 carries.

In order to improve this running game, the Browns did not retain Nick Chubb, who averaged just 3.25 YPC on 102 carries last season, after missing most of 2023 with a significant knee injury, and they replaced him with second and fourth round picks Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson. Judkins, a physical inside runner, is likely to be their lead back in 2024, while the smaller, speedier Sampson can provide a change of pace. Ford will likely remain involved, particularly in passing situations, where he has slash lines of 44/319/5 and 37/225/0 on target totals of 63 and 43 over the past two seasons respectively. This still looks like an underwhelming backfield, but they have significant upside with a pair of talented rookies coming in. 

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Browns’ defense was the biggest reason for their success in 2023, as they ranked 1st in the NFL in first down rate allowed and 4th in yards per play allowed. In 2024, they were still pretty good, but fell to 2nd in first down rate allowed and 23rd yards per play allowed. That wasn’t that surprising. Not only does defensive performance tend to be much less consistent year-to-year than offensive performance, but they also had several key players from 2023 who were getting up there in age. Going into 2025, the Browns have lost several key players from their dominant 2023 defense, while others have declined or are likely to decline due to age.

At the beginning of this off-season, the Browns thought they might be losing their most important player on defense, Myles Garrett, who initially demanded a trade, before opting to come back after the Browns gave him a 4-year, 160 million dollar extension that reset the edge defender market at the time. Garrett was the Defensive Player of the Year in 2023, receiving a 94.0 PFF grade on 805 snaps, excelling against the run, while also totaling 14 sacks, 15 hits, and a 17.2% pressure rate, and he wasn’t much worse in 2024, when he had a 92.3 PFF grade on 822 snaps, 14 sacks, 13 hits, and a 17.4% pressure rate. In total, Garrett has finished above 80 on PFF in all eight seasons in the league, since being #1 overall in 2017, including four straight seasons above 90. He’s now going into his age 30 season, so he could start declining soon, but even if he declines somewhat in 2025, it’s hard to imagine him not being one of the best edge defenders in the league.

In 2023, Garrett lined up opposite Za’Darius Smith, who also played at a high level with a 82.6 PFF grade across 580 snaps and a 15.5% pressure rate, while Ogbo Okoronkwo had a 65.7 PFF grade across 443 snaps and a 12.0% pressure rate as the primary reserve. In 2024, Smith got off to a solid start, with a 73.6 PFF grade across 324 snaps and a 13.2% pressure rate through 9 games, but he wasn’t quite as good as he was in 2023 and then he was traded to the Lions for draft compensation, with the Browns’ season going nowhere. Meanwhile, Okoronkwo dropped all the way to a 45.3 PFF grade, struggling against the run and as a pass rusher (8.7% pressure rate). Okoronkwo had finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first five seasons in the league prior to last season, so he has some bounce back potential, but he’s going into his age 30 season, so it’s also possible his best days are behind him and that he will continue to struggle.

Isaiah McGuire, a 2023 4th round pick, was a bright spot for the Browns last season. He struggled with a 46.9 PFF grade across 93 snaps as a rookie, but in 2024 he excelled as a run stopper (86.1 PFF grade against the run, 3rd best among edge defenders), while also adding 2.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate in a part-time role. He finished last season with 469 snaps played, 297 of which came in 8 games after Smith was traded, and he figures to continue having an expanded role in 2024. It’s possible he’s not quite as good in 2025 in that expanded role as he was in 2024, but he seems to have a bright future, especially as a run stopper.

The Browns will get Alex Wright back from injury this season, after he was limited to 103 snaps in four games last season. Wright wasn’t bad last season before going down, with a 60.2 PFF grade, but that was a limited sample size and he struggled with PFF grades of 38.4 and 54.8 on snap counts of 543 and 385 in his first two seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023 respectively. Wright was a third round pick in 2022, so he has potential and it’s possible he has permanently turned a corner and will remain a decent rotational player upon his return in 2025, but he also could regress back to struggling.

The Browns also took a flier on Joe Tryon-Shoyinka this off-season and will give the 2021 first round pick a chance to earn a rotational role. Tryon-Shoyinka has largely been a bust to this point in his career, playing 630 snaps per season, but maxing out with a 67.1 PFF grade in 2022 and finishing below 60 on PFF in two of four seasons in the league, including a 52.0 PFF grade across 539 snaps in 2024. In total, he has just 15 sacks, 22 hits, and a 9.6% pressure rate in 66 career games, including 2 sacks, 1 hit, and a 8.0% pressure rate in 15 games in 2024. Still only in his age 26 season, he may still have some untapped potential, but he’s running out of time to make good on that potential. The Browns still have the dominant Myles Garrett and Isaiah McGuire has potential, but the rest of this edge defender group is underwhelming and, overall, this group looks noticeably worse than it was in 2023.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

In 2024, the Browns were led in snaps at the interior defender position by Dalvin Tomlinson (609 snaps) and Shelby Harris (527 snaps), who also led the Browns in snaps at the interior defender position in 2023. Both had solid seasons in 2024, with PFF grades of 67.4 and 66.7 respectively, but are on the wrong side of 30, so Tomlinson wasn’t retained in free agency, while Harris is expected to play a smaller role, now in his age 34 season. An 11-year veteran, Harris has never finished below 60 on PFF in any season, with seven seasons over 70, but his best days are almost definitely behind him and he could continue declining in 2025.

To make up for the loss of Tomlinson and Harris likely moving into a smaller role, the Browns used the 5th overall pick on Mason Graham, signed veteran Maliek Collins to a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal, and will likely get more out of 2024 2nd round pick Michael Hall, who was limited to 232 snaps in 8 games as a rookie due to injury and suspension. Graham is NFL ready, in addition to having a huge upside, while Hall showed a lot of potential in a limited role as a rookie, with a 67.7 PFF grade. 

Collins, meanwhile, is also getting up there in age, heading into his age 30 season. A 9-year veteran, Collins has consistently been a good interior rusher throughout his career, finishing above 60 on PFF as a pass rusher in all but one season, while totaling 30.5 sacks, 60 hits, and a 8.5% pressure rate in 136 career games, but he has also consistently struggled as a run defender, finishing below 60 on PFF in seven of nine seasons in the league. I would expect more of the same from Collins in 2025, with potentially some decline overall due to his age.

The Browns also have Sam Kamara and Jowan Briggs, who showed some potential in limited roles last season, with PFF grades of 65.7 and 72.2 respectively on snap counts of 273 and 133 respectively. Kamara is a 2021 undrafted free agent who only played 194 snaps in his first three seasons in the league, prior to last season, while Briggs was a 2024 7th round pick, so neither of them have a high upside and both could struggle if forced into a larger role, but they should still compete for rotational roles, even if they are likely to need an injury ahead of them on the depth chart to see significant playing time. This isn’t a bad position group, but it is not a particularly good one either.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Outside of Myles Garrett, linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah might have been the Browns’ most important defensive player in 2023. A 2021 2nd round pick, Owusu-Koramoah had a 75.3 PFF grade in 2023 and was having an even better season in 2024 with a 80.6 PFF grade, but he suffered a scary neck injury last season that ended his season after 460 snaps in 8 games and that already has him out for all of 2025, making it likely that his career is in doubt. Needless to say, his absence in 2025 and potentially beyond are a huge blow to this defense.

Fellow linebackers Jordan Hicks and Devin Bush also had good seasons in 2024, with PFF grades of 77.4 and 79.2 respectively across snap counts of 602 and 497. For Hicks, it was his fifth season over 70 on PFF in ten seasons in the league, including back-to-back in 2023 and 2024. Hicks is going into his age 33 season though and reserve option Mohamed Diaboute struggled with a 52.5 PFF grade across 581 snaps last season, which mostly came after Owusu-Koramoah got hurt, so the Browns prioritized re-signing Bush in free agency and then used a second round pick on Carson Schwesinger. 

Bush also comes with some concerns, in part because he was arrested this off-season, but also because he is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, with his previous career high single-season grade on PFF being 62.9. Bush is a former 2019 1st round pick who is still only going into his age 27 season, so it’s possible he could have permanently turned a corner and will remain at least a solid starting option, but that’s not a guarantee. WIth Owusu-Koramoah out for the season, Hicks going into his age 33 season, Bush being a one-year wonder with off-the-field concerns, and Schwesinger being a rookie, this is a shaky linebacker group, but there is at least some upside here if everything goes right.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Browns’ secondary didn’t change much between 2023 and 2024 personnel wise, but all of their key players had a worse season in 2024 than they did in 2023. That’s despite the fact that many of their key defensive backs were not on the wrong side of 30. The most noticeable decline was probably cornerbacks Martin Emerson and Greg Newsome. Neither were spectacular in 2023, with PFF grades of 65.8 and 69.6 respectively across snap counts of 856 and 770 respectively, but both struggled in 2024, falling to PFF grades of 47.9 and 52.2 respectively across snap counts of 827 and 571.

Both are still only going into their age 25 season and 2024 is the outlier when you look at their careers, as Emerson is a 2022 3rd round pick who also had a 72.5 PFF grade across 783 snaps as a rookie, while Newsome is a 2021 1st round pick who has finished with PFF grades above 68 in each of the first three seasons in the league prior to last season, so both have significant bounce back potential in 2024, but they overall don’t look as promising long-term as they did a year ago, given how badly they played last season. If Emerson and/or Newsome continue to struggle, the Browns won’t have much choice but to continue playing them in significant roles as their top alternative is Cameron Mitchell, a 2023 5th round pick who has struggled with PFF grades of 58.1 and 52.9 across snap counts of 277 and 371 in his first two seasons in the league respectively. 

Denzel Ward remains as the Browns’ top cornerback. His dropoff from 2023 to 2024 was negligible, going from a 69.6 PFF grade across 617 snaps in 2023 to a 68.4 PFF grade across 757 snaps in 2024. Last season was actually the second worst single-season grade of his 7-year career, as he’s mostly been an above average cornerback since entering the league as the 4th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Ward is still only going into his age 28 season and should remain an above average starter in 2025, but durability has consistently been a problem for him and will likely remain one going forward. Ward has never had a major injury, playing in at least 12 games in every season in the league, but he has also missed at least one game in every season, 21 games total in seven seasons, while maxing out at 855 snaps played in a season.

At safety, the Browns also got negligible declines from Juan Thornhill, who had a 67.3 PFF grade across 602 snaps in 2023 and a 65.5 PFF grade across 401 snaps in 2024, and Rodney McLeod, who had a 54.1 PFF grade across 280 snaps in 2023 and a 50.9 PFF grade across 565 snaps in 2024. With Thornhill and McLeod heading into their age 30 and age 35 seasons respectively, the Browns did not retain either and instead will give Ronnie Hickman a full-time starting job. Hickman also regressed from 2023 to 2024, but he showed a lot of potential in both seasons, with a 86.5 PFF grade across 308 snaps in 2023 and a 77.2 PFF grade across 463 snaps in 2024. Hickman went undrafted in 2023 and his impressive play over the past two seasons might not translate into an every down role, so he does come with some risk, but he also has a lot of upside.

If Hickman can’t translate to a larger role, the Browns’ best alternative is veteran Damontae Kazee, who they signed in free agency. Kazee has been a solid situational player/starter for most of his career, starting 62 of 92 games he played in from 2017-2023 and averaging 45.0 snaps played per game, while finishing above 60 on PFF in all seven seasons. However, he fell to a 58.8 PFF grade across just 290 snaps last season and now heads into his age 32 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him and he would likely struggle if forced back into a starting role. 

Grant Delpit will remain as the other starting safety. He fell from a 70.0 PFF grade across 738 snaps in 2023 to a 65.2 PFF grade across 978 snaps in 2024. His 2023 season was the best season of his career thus far, but he’s also had a PFF grade above 60 in each of the past four seasons and, still only in his age 27 season, he should remain at least a capable starter in 2025, even if he doesn’t reach the heights he reached in 2023. The Browns have a solid secondary if everything goes right, but there is also downside here as well.

Grade: B

Kickers

The Browns’ kicker situation was a big part of the problem last season, as kicker Dustin Hopkins ranked dead last in the NFL with 14.8 points below average, probably costing the Browns at least one win, if not more. The Browns didn’t bring in any meaningful competition for him this off-season, with the only other option on their roster being 2024 undrafted free agent Andre Szmyt, who didn’t attempt a kick as a rookie. Instead, the Browns are hoping for a bounce back season from Hopkins. Hopkins did have three straight above average seasons prior to last season, accumulating 10.3 points above average over those three seasons, including 7.4 points above average in 2023, 6th best in the NFL. However, he is now heading into his age 35 season, so his best days may be behind him and, even if he bounces back somewhat in 2025, he could still struggle and be below average. 

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Browns figure to be one of the worst teams in the league again this season. Their quarterback situation is one of the worst in the league and they lack high level young talent throughout their roster, in large part due to not having a first round pick for three straight seasons from 2022-2024. The Browns look like they are in the early stages of a teardown before a rebuild and might have been better off more aggressively tearing down this roster in an attempt to free up more cap space for 2026 and get to the building part of their rebuild sooner. As of right now, the Browns still have a roster that has the 5th highest average age in the NFL and they have just 14.75 million in cap space for 2026, 25th in the NFL. By not going through a full teardown, they will probably win a couple more games than they otherwise would have, but it seems highly unlikely this team will compete for a playoff spot in the AFC.

Prediction: 2-15, 4th in AFC North

Quarterback

Since returning to the NFL in 1999, the Browns have started 38 different quarterbacks, by far the most in the league over that time period. Baker Mayfield led them to a playoff victory in 2020, but he struggled in 2021 and got sent away the following off-season for a late round draft pick, with the Browns opting to try to shoot higher at the position by sending away three first round picks for Deshaun Watson. Watson was the 12th overall pick in 2017 and started his career by completing 67.8% of his passes for an average of 8.32 YPA, 104 touchdowns, and 36 interceptions in 53 starts across his first four seasons in the league, while adding 5.46 YPC and 17 touchdowns on 307 carries. He was especially good in the final year of that stretch in 2020, completing 70.2% of his passes for an average of 8.87 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while averaging 4.93 YPC and rushing for 3 touchdowns on 90 carries.

However, off-the-field issues kept him out all of 2021 and he was set to miss a big chunk of the 2022 season as well, so it was a surprise how much the Browns were still willing to give up for him, even before you consider the moral and PR issues of acquiring someone like Watson. Watson ended up missing the first 11 games of 2022, but he also wasn’t his usual self in the 6 games he did play, completing 58.2% of his passes for an average of 6.48 YPA, 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, with 4.86 YPC and a touchdown on 36 carries. That underwhelming performance continued into 2023, in a season in which he was also limited to just 6 games, this time by injury. In those 6 games, Watson completed 61.4% of his passes for an average of 6.52 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, with 5.46 YPC and a touchdown on 26 carries.

The worst part of Watson’s struggles thus far with the Browns is they have legitimately been a quarterback away from being contenders, especially in 2023. Despite his struggles, Watson is 8-4 as the Browns starting quarterback, including 5-1 in 2023. On top of that, one of the quarterbacks who the Browns used in Watson’s absence, veteran Joe Flacco, was 4-1, despite being signed off the couch mid-season and completing 60.3% of his passes for an average of 7.92 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, good for a middling QB rating of 90.2. 

The Browns had the league’s second best defense in terms of DVOA last season and they have supporting talent on offense, so they don’t even need elite quarterback play to be contenders. That should remain the case in 2024, when they bring back 20 of the 22 players who saw at least 500 snaps on offense or defense, with the two exceptions not being key players. The Browns should also be healthier and not just at quarterback, after having the 4th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league in 2023. Flacco is no longer with the team, but if Watson can stay healthy and at least somewhat bounce back to his prime form, still only in his age 29 season, the Browns should at least be playoff qualifiers, even in the loaded AFC.

If Watson misses more time, the job would go to Jameis Winston, a veteran free agent signing from this off-season. Winston was the #1 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft and has completed 61.2% of his passes for an average of 7.67 YPA, 141 touchdowns, and 99 interceptions in 80 career starts, but only 10 of those starts have come in the past four seasons and he’s now heading into his age 30 season, so he’s a backup at this stage of his career. 

Winston is not a bad backup though and, if he needed to start for a few games, the Browns’ supporting cast is good enough that they can win some games even with their backup quarterback under center, similar to how they won with Flacco a year ago. The Browns’ quarterback room has some concerns at the top with Watson coming off of a major injury and now being almost four years removed from his last prime season, but he does come with some upside if he can consistently stay on the field more than he has the past three seasons.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

One of the Browns’ most injury plagued position groups last season was the offensive tackle position. Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin began last season as the starters on the left and right side respectively, but Conklin lasted just 22 snaps before going down for the season with a knee injury, while Wills struggled with a 54.0 PFF grade in 8 starts before going down with his own season ending injury. Dawand Jones, a 2023 4th round rookie who started the season as the swing tackle, had a pretty decent season with a 64.7 PFF grade in 9 starts, first at right tackle after Conklin went down and then at left tackle after Wills went down, but he suffered a season ending injury of his own in week 13 and the other two tackles who made starts for the Browns last season, James Hudson (7 starts) and Geron Christian (9 snaps), both struggled mightily with PFF grades of 46.8 and 42.3.

Wills, Conklin, and Jones all return healthy for 2024 and, at least for now, it looks like everyone will remain in the role they became last season, Wills on the left side, Conklin on the right side, and Jones as the backup, even though Wills struggled last season, Conklin is coming off of a major injury, and Jones showed he was a capable starter with the upside for more in the absence of Conklin and Wills last season. However, that could change at some point, particularly if Wills continues to struggle. 

A first round pick in 2020, Wills has been better in the past and is only in his age 25 season, but he has yet to live up to his draft slot, as his better seasons were PFF grades of just 61.5, 66.1, and 62.9 in 45 total starts in 2020, 2021 and 2022. Conklin, meanwhile, has finished above 60 on PFF in 8 straight seasons, with 6 seasons above 70, but he’s coming off of the second major knee injury in his career and now heads into his age 30 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he declined at least somewhat in 2024. He’s starting his decline from a pretty high base point, but it seems unlikely he’ll be at his best this season.

Joel Bitonio, Ethan Pocic, and Wyatt Teller remain as the starters on the interior, at left guard, center, and right guard respectively and all three are coming off of solid seasons, with PFF grades of 68.0, 71.4, and 72.9 respectively. For Bitonio, last season was actually a down year, in fact the worst season-long grade of his 10-year career. Bitonio has eight seasons above 70 on PFF and four seasons above 80, but he’s now going into his age 33 season, so his best days are probably behind him and he could continue declining further. There’s at least a decent chance he remains an above average starter, but that’s not a guarantee. To prepare for life without Bitonio, the Browns used a 3rd round pick on Zak Zinter for depth and a potential long-term replacement.

Teller is also getting up there in age a little bit, heading into his age 30 season. His best two seasons were in 2020 and 2021 when he had PFF grades of 92.7 and 84.9, but, even though he hasn’t reached those heights since, he has remained in the 70s in each of the past two seasons. He could decline further in 2024, given his age, but he’s not totally over the hill and has a good chance to remain an above average starter, with the potential to even bounce back a little bit towards his prime form.

Ethan Pocic is the youngest of the three, going into his age 29 season. Injuries have been a concern for him throughout his career, as he’s made 14 or more starts in a season just twice in seven seasons in the league, but he’s finished above 60 on PFF in four straight seasons, with back-to-back seasons over 70 and he should remain an above average starter in 2024, for as long as he can stay on the field. The Browns also signed a better backup center in Brian Allen, who has made 32 career starts in six seasons in the league, with only one season below 60 on PFF and a 80.2 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2021. He should be able to hold down the fort for at least a few games if Pocic misses time again. Overall, this is an aging offensive line, but they should be healthier than a year ago and still look above average as a group.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Browns also were without feature back Nick Chubb for most of last season, a big loss, as Chubb had previously rushed for 6,511 yards and 48 touchdowns on 1,238 carries (5.26 YPC) in 77 games since being a second round pick in 2018. Chubb should be healthier this season, but he might not be available or 100% for the start of the season, given the severity of his injury. He’s also going into his age 29 season with 1,361 career touches, which is a common point when running backs start to slow down. He should give them more than he gave them a year ago, but I wouldn’t expect his peak form in 2024, especially not for a full season.

In Chubb’s absence, Jerome Ford rushed for 813 yards and 4 touchdowns on 204 carries (3.99 YPC), Kareem Hunt rushed for 411 yards and 9 touchdowns on 135 carries (3.04 YPC), and Pierre Strong rushed for 291 yards and 1 touchdown on 63 carries (4.62 YPC). Ford, a 2022 5th round pick who previously had just 8 touches as a rookie, will likely remain the lead back if Chubb misses more time, but he had just a 39.7% carry success rate last season and is probably overstretched as a true lead back, so he could see a pretty even carry split with free agent addition D’onta Foreman, who should be an upgrade on free agent departure Kareem Hunt. 

Foreman only averaged 3.90 YPC with the Bears last season, but he had a 53.2% carry success rate. He also had a 48.8% carry success rate with 4.50 YPC on 203 carries in 2022 and a 48.9% carry success rate with 4.26 YPC on 133 carries in 2021, so he should be a useful tandem back with Ford if Chubb misses time. Chubb has never been much of a pass catcher, even at his best, with 0.96 yards per route run and 123 catches in 77 career games, while Ford and Foreman have career averages of just 1.00 yards per route run and 1.01 yards per route run respectively, so another free agent addition Nyheim Hines could carve out a role as a passing down back, even after Chubb returns.

Hines missed all of last season with injury and prior to that only had a 3.93 YPC average on 306 carries in his first five seasons in the league, but he does have a career 1.52 yards per route run average and, if he’s mostly over his injury, he should be useful for a Browns offense that otherwise lacks a good passing down option. The Browns also still have Kevin Strong, but the 2022 4th round pick only has 85 touches in two seasons in the league and, with Foreman and Hines being added this off-season, Strong will have an uphill battle to win a roster spot, especially if Chubb avoids the PUP list to begin the season. Overall, much of how well this backfield performs is dependent on how much and how well Chubb plays in his return from a major injury, but he should give them more than a year ago at the very least and the Browns also have better depth behind him this time around, meaning a smaller role for Jerome Ford even if Chubb does miss time.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

In addition to bringing back all of their key players from a year ago, the Browns also added to their receiving corps, giving away a pair of a late round picks for Jerry Jeudy and extending him on a 3 year, 52.5 million dollar extension ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal. Jeudy never quite lived up to his billing as a 2020 1st round pick with the Broncos, but he still averaged a 63/911/3 slash line per 17 games, with 1.83 yards per route run, despite poor quarterback play in Denver, and he’s still only in his age 25 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him perform better in his second home than his first.

The Browns already had Amari Cooper, who had a 72/1250/5 slash line with a 2.31 yards per route run average last season, with a 81/1152/7 slash line per 17 games and a 1.93 yards per route run average in 9 seasons in the league, but Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman struggled with slash lines of 59/640/2 and 21/224/0, as well as yards per route run averages of 1.14 and 0.63, so it’s understandable why the Browns felt the need to upgrade their receiving corps. It wouldn’t be hard for Jeudy to be an upgrade over both of them and Moore and Tillman will now compete for the third receiver job.

Moore and Tillman also have the upside to be better in 2024 than 2023. Tillman was a 2023 3rd round pick and has the upside to take a step forward in his second season in the league, while Moore was a second round pick in 2021 and averaged 1.23 yards per route run in his first two seasons prior to taking a small step back in 2023. Only in his age 24 season, he could bounce back a little in 2024, especially in a smaller role, although Tillman has the higher upside and could be the favorite for the #3 receiving job, despite his rough rookie season. 

The Browns also have David Bell, who was a third round pick in 2022, but only has 0.87 yards per route run and 38 catches in 31 career games, and they used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Jamari Thrash, but both are likely to be deep reserve options, behind whoever loses the Moore/Tillman battle. Cooper is likely to remain the #1 receiver, although his age is a minor concern in his age 30 season and Jeudy is likely to eat into his target share somewhat as a high upside #2 receiver, with Moore and Tillman playing smaller roles behind them, in which they could be more efficient than a year ago.

Without a good #2 wide receiver last season, tight end David Njoku had a big role with a 81/882/6 slash line on 123 targets and a 1.70 yards per route run average. He’ll probably see a smaller role in 2024 with Jeudy being added, but he also had a 36/475/4 slash line on 53 targets with 1.56 yards per route run in 2022 and a 58/628/4 slash line on 80 targets with 1.55 yards per route run in 2023, so he should remain productive even if he doesn’t see as many targets.

Harrison Bryant (406 snaps) was the primary tight end behind Njoku last season, but he had just a 13/81/3 slash line with 0.56 yards per route run and was mostly a blocker, an aspect of the game he also struggled in. Bryant was let go this off-season and Jordan Akins, who played 231 snaps as the third tight end last season, will probably play a bigger role, particularly as a blocker. He’s a better receiver than Bryant was a year ago, with 1.26 yards per route run in his career, but he’s now going into his age 32 season and has never been much of a blocker, so he’s a pretty underwhelming backup tight end. Still, with an improved receiving corps and a talented top tight end in David Njoku, the Browns have a solid receiving corps overall.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Browns got a great performance from their defense last season. Defensive performance is much less consistent year-to-year than offensive performance, so they could regress somewhat defensively, but they bring back all of their key performers from a year ago and, as a result, they should have a better chance than most top defenses of repeating that performance again this season. No player is more key than edge defender Myles Garrett, who had a 94.0 PFF grade on 805 snaps, excelling against the run and as a pass rusher, with 14 sacks, 15 hits, and a 17.2% pressure rate, en route to a Defensive Player of the Year award.

That was Garrett’s first Defensive Player of the Year, but it might not be his last and he’s far from a one-year wonder, with PFF grades of 80.0, 86.9, 86.5, 89.5, 92.0, and 92.5 in the six seasons prior to last season, while playing 100 of a possible 115 games, averaging 53.2 snaps per game, and totaling 88.5 sacks, 86 hits, and a 13.7% pressure rate in his career, with 46 sacks, 42 hits, and a 15.4% pressure rate in 49 games over the past three seasons. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Garrett in 2024.

It wasn’t just Garrett though, as part of the reason why their defense was so good last season was that they finally had a good complement opposite Garrett. In his first season in Cleveland, Za’Darius Smith had a 82.6 PFF grade on 580 snaps, playing the run well and finishing with 5.5 sacks, 14 hits, and a 15.5% pressure rate in 16 games. That’s not out of the ordinary for Smith, who has finished above 70 in five straight healthy seasons, with three seasons over 80, while totaling 50 sacks, 86 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate and playing 47.1 snaps per game in 80 games over that stretch, but he is now going into his age 32 season, so he could decline in 2024. He’s starting from a pretty base base point and has a good chance to remain an above average starter even if he declines, but a noticeable decline from him would hurt this defense, at least somewhat.

The Browns also got good play out of their top reserve edge defender Ogbo Okoronkwo, who had a 65.7 PFF grade across 443 snaps, while totaling 4.5 sacks, 3 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate. That’s also not out of the ordinary for him, as he had PFF grades of 79.2, 75.1, and 65.7 over the three seasons prior to last season, on an average of 405 snaps per season, while totaling 11.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate in 44 games. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. 

The Browns also bring back Alex Wright. He has PFF grades of 38.4 and 54.8 on snap counts of 543 and 385 in two seasons in the league, but the 2022 3rd round pick could take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2024 and, even if he doesn’t, the Browns won’t need him for much of a role unless there are multiple injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. Overall, this is a deep and talented edge defender group, even if Za’Darius Smith’s age and potential decline are concerns.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

Not much changes at the interior defender position, with one exception, which I’ll get to later. Dalvin Tomlinson, who had a 63.3 PFF grade on 617 snaps, Shelby Harris, who had a 70.5 PFF grade on 438 snaps, and Maurice Hurst who had a 81.0 PFF grade on 302 snaps, all return, which is a good thing for this defense. Tomlinson is going into his age 30 season and coming off of the first season of his 7-year career in which he was below 70 on PFF, but he was still effective as a pass rusher, with 3 sacks, 10 hits, and a 9.3% pressure rate, even if his run defense dropped off. 

Prior to last season, Tomlinson had mostly been a solid run stopper, while totaling 16 sacks, 34 hits, and a 7.0% pressure rate in 109 career games. His best days might be behind him at this point, but he still has a good chance to remain a useful player, particularly in passing situations. Shelby Harris is also getting up there in age, going into his age 33 season, but he finished above 70 on PFF for the sixth time in seven seasons last season. In those seven seasons, he has averaged 507 snaps per season and totalled 25 sacks, 31 hits, and a 8.3% pressure rate in 107 games. Harris could easily decline in 2024, given his age, but he could also remain a useful rotational player. 

The Browns are also probably hoping to get more out of Maurice Hurst, who missed four games with injury last season, but he’s had durability problems throughout his career, maxing out at 522 snaps in a season and only playing in every game once in six seasons in the league, while missing 44 games total over that stretch. Hurst has always played pretty well when healthy, with PFF grades over 70 in every season in his career in which he’s played a snap and a career 8.2% pressure rate, and he should continue playing well in 2024, but it’s also likely he misses most time with injury at some point. 

The one big change in this group is that Jordan Elliott left, but he had a 46.5 PFF grade across 440 snaps and the Browns added veteran Quinton Jefferson and second round rookie Mike Hall to replace him and both should be upgrades. Jefferson is going into his age 31 season and has never been much of a run defender, but he’s at least a useful pass rusher with 25.5 sacks, 50 hits, and a 9.9% pressure rate in 94 games over the past six seasons, which is more than you can say about Elliott, who had a 5.2% pressure rate last season. Even on the wrong side of 30, Jefferson should be an upgrade. Hall, meanwhile, enters the league with a high upside and could be useful in a reserve role as a rookie, before likely developing into a starter long-term as many of the Browns’ interior defender options go into their 30s. Even with age being a concern in this group, this is a deeper group than a year ago and it should be a solid bunch overall.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Browns’ linebacking corps is the group that had the most changes on this defense this off-season, with both Sione Takitaki, who had a 68.6 PFF grade on 563 snaps, and Anthony Walker, who had a 71.1 PFF grade on 454 snaps, leaving this off-season. Neither is irreplaceable though and the Browns added at least one good replacement in Jordan Hicks. Hicks is going into his age 32 season, which is a concern, but he’s finished above 60 on PFF in eight of nine seasons in the league, while playing 60.2 snaps per game in 122 career games. Last season, he had a 74.6 PFF grade on 813 snaps in 13 games and, even if he isn’t as good this year, given his age, he could still be at least a capable every down linebacker.

Hicks will start next to fellow every down linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who was the Browns’ best linebacker a year ago, with a 75.3 PFF grade across 756 snaps. That’s nothing new for him, as the 2021 2nd round pick had a 76.5 PFF grade on 597 snaps as a rookie and then a 65.5 PFF grade on 535 snaps in 2022. Still only going into his age 25 season, it’s possible his best years are still ahead of him and, even if they’re not, he should remain at least an above average starter for years to come.

Veteran Devin Bush was signed to be the third linebacker this off-season and he figures to be a weak spot on this defense, but he won’t have to play much unless Owusu-Koramoah or Hicks miss extended time with injury. Bush was a first round pick by the Steelers in 2019 and had a solid 62.9 PFF grade on 889 snaps as a rookie, but he got hurt in his second season and hasn’t been the same, with PFF grades below 60 on 488 snaps per season in four seasons since. 

Bush is still relatively young in his age 26 season, but he’s running out of time to make good on his potential and, even in a part-time role, he’s a mediocre option. He could have to compete for the job with 2021 5th round pick Tony Fields, but Fields has PFF grades of 50.0 and 49.8 on snap counts of 276 and 234 over the past two seasons, after not playing a snap as a rookie, so Bush is still probably the better option. Led by Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, this is a solid linebacking corps overall, even if they’re not quite as deep as a year ago.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The personnel remains the same in the secondary. Nine Browns defensive backs played 200 snaps or more last season and all nine will return. The Browns will be hoping for better health though, as all but one of those nine missed at least three games due to injury last season. Denzel Ward missed four games as the top cornerback, but that’s not out of the ordinary, as he’s missed 20 games in six seasons in the league, missing at least two games in every season. He still had a solid 69.6 PFF grade when on the field, his fifth season above 60 in six seasons in the league, with three seasons over 70, and the 2018 1st round pick is still only in his age 27 season, he should remain an above average starter in 2024, as long as he’s on the field.

Fellow cornerback Greg Newsome missed three games, but he also had a solid PFF grade when healthy, finishing with a 69.6 PFF grade across 770 snaps. Like Ward, he’s a former first round pick and he has been solid throughout his career, with a 68.1 PFF grade on 691 snaps as a rookie and a 69.1 PFF grade on 907 snaps in his second season in the league, before another solid season in 2023. Still only in his age 24 season, he should remain at least a solid starter going forward and it’s possible his best days are still ahead of him.

Another starting cornerback, Martin Emerson, was the Browns’ healthiest defensive back last season, playing 856 snaps in 16 games and finishing with a 65.8 PFF grade. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Emerson also had a 72.5 PFF grade on 783 snaps as a rookie and looks on his way towards being at least a solid starter for years to come, still only in his age 24 season. The Browns also have 2023 5th round pick Cameron Mitchell as the top reserve, although he did struggle with a 58.1 PFF grade on 277 snaps as a rookie and isn’t necessarily going to be better in his second season in the league in 2023, so the Browns’ depth behind their top-3 cornerbacks is pretty suspect.

At safety, Grant Delpit and Juan Thornhill remain the starters, after posting PFF grades of 70.0 and 67.3 on 738 snaps in 13 games and 602 snaps in 11 games respectively last season. Delpit is coming off of a career best year, after PFF grades of 63.3 and 63.6 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, but the 2020 2nd round pick came into the league with a high upside and is only going into his age 26 season, so it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average starter, while probably playing more games this year than last year.

Thornhill, meanwhile, is a 2019 2nd round pick who has finished above 60 on PFF in four of five seasons in the league, the first four of which came with the Kansas City Chiefs. Last year was a career low in snaps for him and he should be healthier in 2024, while likely remaining a solid starter. Rodney McLeod (280 snaps), Ronnie Hickman (308 snaps), and D’Anthony Bell (226 snaps) also played roles at safety for the Browns in 2023 and they will compete for the top reserve job in 2024.

McLeod is by far the most experienced, with 143 starts in 12 seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in ten of those seasons and above 70 in six of those seasons, but he fell to a 54.1 PFF grade last season and now is going into his age 34 season, so he could continue struggling. Hickman and Bell, meanwhile, had PFF grades of 77.2 and 86.5 last season, but are completely unproven, with Bell being a 2022 undrafted free agent who struggled in 72 snaps as a rookie prior to last season and Hickman being a 2023 undrafted free agent. All three candidates for the top reserve job have some upside, but they all have significant downside as well. Overall, this was a solid secondary a year ago and they should be healthier and, as a result, better in 2024.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Browns went 11-6 and secured a playoff spot last season, despite the 4th most adjusted games lost to injury, most notably at the quarterback position. This season, they should be healthier and they return almost their entire team from a year ago. They are one of the oldest teams in the league, with the 4th highest average age in the league and 8 of their 22 expected starters set to be 30 or older in 2024, which hurts their projection somewhat, as does the fact that defensive performance tends to be less consistent year-to-year than offensive performance, but the Browns should still be very much in the mix, not just for a playoff spot but for the division title, even in the loaded AFC North.

Prediction: 11-6, 3rd in AFC North

Quarterback

The Browns thought they had solved their long standing quarterback issues when they selected quarterback Baker Mayfield with the 1st overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft and then watched him instantly be a solid starter as a rookie, completing 63.8% of his passes for an average of 7.66 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Mayfield regressed in year two, completing 59.4% of his passes for an average of 7.17 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions, but seemed to bounce back in year three, completing 62.8% of his passes for an average of 7.33 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions during the 2020 regular season and then leading the Browns to their first post-season victory since 1994. 

However, Mayfield again regressed in an injury plagued 2021 season, completing 60.5% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. With Mayfield’s rookie contract nearing the end and his salary about to increase significantly in 2022, the Browns opted to move on from Mayfield and shoot higher at the quarterback position. Mayfield’s tenure as the Browns’ starting quarterback coincided with their most successful team stretch in years, but the Browns also had the most talent around the quarterback that they had in years and they felt that Mayfield, who only averaged 32.1 pass attempts per start on a run-heavy team, was not the reason they were winning and that, in order to get to their ultimate goal, they needed an upgrade at the position. 

In order to find that upgrade, the Browns took a controversial approach, not only entering the running to trade for disgraced Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, a highly talented quarterback with a very concerning off-the-field situation, but also going above and beyond to acquire Watson, outbidding all other teams by giving up a trio of first round picks and guaranteeing Watson a long-term 5-year, 230 million dollar deal upon arrival in Cleveland. The Browns also did that without first finding a home for Mayfield and ended up having to eat most of Mayfield’s salary just to get a late round pick back for him in a trade, when they sent him to the Carolina Panthers. 

Watson missed his entire 2021 season because of his off-the-field situation and was set to face a significant suspension in his first season in Cleveland, but the Browns still paid him 45.3675 million in his first year with the team and structured it in a way that he would make almost all of that money even if he was suspended for all of most of the 2023 season. That suspension ended up being 11 games and, while Watson returned for the final 6 games of the season, he seemed like a shell of himself, completing just 58.2% of his passes for an average of 6.48 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while rushing for 7.47 YPC and 2 touchdowns on 36 carries and accumulating an overall 55.3 PFF grade. The Browns did go 3-3 in those games, as opposed to 4-7 without Watson, but that was primarily because their defense was much better in the games that Watson played. 

In Watson’s last full season in 2020, he completed 70.2% of his passes for an average of 8.87 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while rushing for 4.93 YPC and 3 touchdowns on 90 carries and accumulating an overall 92.4 PFF grade. That was in line with how he played in 2018 and 2019, when he completed a combined 67.8% of his passes for an average of 8.02 YPA, 52 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions, while rushing for 5.33 YPC and 12 touchdowns on 181 carries and receiving PFF grades of 82.7 and 81.3 respectively in those two seasons. 

Still only in his age 28 season, Watson has obvious bounce back potential in 2023, after another year of building chemistry with his new teammates and learning this new scheme, but it’s concerning that he’s two seasons removed from his last impressive season, given how much the Browns have invested and risked to get Watson as their quarterback, and it’s possible Watson will never be as good as he was in Houston, in a new city, with new teammates, having permanently damaged his reputation around the league.

Jacoby Brissett, who the Browns added to be Watson’s replacement when he was suspended last year, actually outplayed Watson by a pretty big amount, completing 64.0% of his passes for an average of 7.07 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in 11 starts. With Watson set to play a full season in 2023, Brissett wasn’t retained this off-season, so the pressure will be on Watson to bounce back to something resembling his old form, with his backup likely to be Josh Dobbs, a 2017 4th round pick who made the first two starts of his career last season and who has just a 66.6 QB rating on 85 pass attempts in his career. The Browns also used a 5th round pick on UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson as a potential long-term backup and there’s a chance he could beat out Dobbs as early as year one, but he would almost definitely struggle if forced into extended starting action. There’s plenty of upside here, but plenty of downside as well.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

If the Browns are unable to be true contenders this year, the blame will likely fall on the quarterback, as the Browns still have one of the more talented rosters in the league outside of the quarterback position. Their biggest strength is probably their offensive line, which has been a big strength for the past several years, including a 2022 campaign in which they ranked 7th in team pass blocking grade on PFF and 8th in team run blocking grade, making life easier for the spot starter Brissett and making Watson’s struggles even more concerning. With all five starters returning from a year ago, I would expect more of the same in 2023.

In fact, not only are all five starters returning from a year ago, but four of the five starters have been together for three seasons, with the only relatively new member of this offensive line being Ethan Pocic, who they signed last off-season on a cheap 1-year, 1.1875 million dollar deal as a replacement option for retiring long-time Browns center JC Tretter. Pocic proved to be a steal on that one-year deal, breaking out with by far a career best 78.9 PFF grade, 3rd in the NFL among eligible centers. There’s a reason Pocic was available so cheap last off-season though, as Pocic was a mediocre and injury prone starter for most of his the first five seasons of his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of five seasons, with no seasons above 70, and 24 games missed due to injury. 

Pocic was a 2nd round pick in 2017 and his two best seasons before joining the Browns were 2020 (62.4 in 14 starts) and 2021 (67.3 in 10 starts), so it’s possible Pocic is just a late bloomer who will continue being an above average starter going forward, but, even if that’s the case, Pocic is still as unlikely to be quite as good as he was a year ago again in 2023 and even last season he did miss another 4 games with injury, so he’s a good bet to miss more time at some point this season, and it’s possible he could regress significantly. The Browns only paid 18 million on a 3-year deal to keep him this off-season, which is not a bad deal at all considering his upside, but it seems more likely than not that he won’t be as good as he was a year ago again in 2023.

Fortunately, the Browns do have a couple starters who could be better this year than a year ago, most notably right guard Wyatt Teller. Teller wasn’t bad in 2022 with a 70.3 PFF grade, but that’s a big drop off from the 92.7 grade he had in 2020 and the 84.9 grade he had in 2021 and that drop off was likely caused by injuries that caused him to miss two games and seemed to limit him in several others. Still only in his age 29 season, Teller has a good chance to bounce back and be better in 2023 if he can stay healthier. 

Right tackle Jack Conklin is also coming off of a down year, as his 66.7 PFF grade in 14 starts last season was actually the worst of his 7-year career. With five seasons over 70 and three seasons over 80 in his career, and only going into his age 29 season, Conklin would seem to have a good chance to bounce back at least somewhat in 2023, but he does have a concerning injury history, with 21 games missed in the past five seasons combined, including a torn patellar tendon that ended his 2021 season after 7 starts and that could have easily been the cause of his down 2022 season. It’s possible he’ll never be the same again after that injury, which is one of the most serious an athlete can suffer, but I wouldn’t expect him to decline any further at the moment, so he should remain at least a solid starter, with the upside for more if he can find his old form. 

Left guard Joel Bitonio was probably their best offensive lineman a year ago, with a 87.5 PFF grade on 17 starts, and he has been one of the best guards in the league for years, but he’s going into his age 32 season, so there is some concern that he could decline, at least somewhat in 2023. He’s exceeded 70 on PFF in all but one of his 9 seasons in the league, all with the Browns who selected him in the 2nd round in 2014, and his last three seasons have actually been the best 3-year stretch of his career, with PFF grades above 80 in all 3 seasons, including a career best 93.6 as recently as 2021, so he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does decline in 2023, he is declining from a pretty high level and should at least remain an above average starter. However, a noticeable decline from him would hurt this offensive line at least a little bit.

Left tackle Jedrick Wills was probably their weakest starter a year ago, which has been the case for a few years, since Wills entered the league in 2020, but that’s mostly just because of how good the rest of this offensive line has been, as he has finished with a grade in the 60s on PFF in all three seasons in the league and has the upside for more, as a former 10th overall pick who is still only going into his age 24 season. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if 2023 proved to be the best year of Wills’ career thus far and a significant breakout is a possibility as well. Even if he doesn’t improve, he should remain at least a capable blindside protector.

For reserves, the Browns top options are swing tackle James Hudson and interior reserve Nick Harris. Hudson was a 4th round pick in 2021 and has played snap counts of 296 and 303 over the past two seasons and hasn’t been horrible, with grades of 57.3 and 57.8 respectively, which he could prove upon going forward, given his upside, but he also could be a liability if he had to start for an extended period of time. 

Harris, meanwhile, was a 5th round pick in 2020 and was supposed to be their starting center in 2022, but he suffered an injury in the pre-season that knocked him out for the year and opened up the job for Pocic. Harris still has upside, but he’s also only made two career starts thus far and he’s coming off of a significant injury, so it’s questionable how he would fare if forced into a significant role by an injury ahead of him on the depth chart. The Browns’ depth options could be better, but they have one of the best starting offensive lines in the league and, even if they lose a starter or two and have to replace them with a mediocre reserve, they could still remain an above average offensive line.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Browns also have a strong running game, led by top back Nick Chubb, who took 302 carries for 1,525 yards (5.05 YPC) and 12 touchdowns last season, finishing 3rd in the league in rushing. That’s nothing new for Chubb, who has excelled throughout his career as a lead back, especially behind this offensive line, rushing for 5.24 YPC and 48 touchdowns on 1,210 carries in five seasons in the league, including 5.35 YPC and 32 touchdowns on 720 carries over the past three seasons. In terms of PFF grade, Chubb has exceeded 80 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, including a career best 90.3 last season, 2nd among eligible running backs. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, the 2018 2nd round pick should continue excelling as a runner this season.

Kareem Hunt actually had 123 carries as Chubb’s backup last season, as the Browns were a run heavy team, ranking 5th in the NFL with 532 carries. Hunt is no longer with the team, but the Browns are likely to pass more in 2023 anyway with Watson in his first full season as the starter and Watson will take off and run often by himself, so I wouldn’t expect the Browns’ #2 running back to get nearly as many carries this season. Hunt also only had a 3.80 YPC average last season anyway, so he won’t be missed too much. However, Chubb has never done much on passing downs (0.96 yards per route run, 119 catches in 75 career games), so there will be passing down work available for backup running backs.

Jerome Ford, a 5th round pick in 2022, is the leading candidate for the top reserve role, but he only played 14 snaps as a rookie, so he’s obviously a projection to a larger role, even if he does have the upside to take a step forward in year two. Ford caught 21 passes for 220 yards in his final collegiate season in 2021, so he has shown some potential in passing situations, but he probably won’t have as much as Hunt did (1.29 yards per route run average for his career), so Chubb could see a few more balls go his way through the air this season.

Behind Ford, options are even more limited. John Kelly was a 6th round pick by the Rams in 2018, but has just 96 rushing yards on 32 carries (3.00 YPC) in his career. Demetric Felton is a hybrid running back/wide receiver and could play a role as a passing down option, but he only has 8 career carries and 20 career catches on 205 career snaps in two seasons in the league since being drafted in the 6th round in 2021 and is probably not capable of handling a big load as a runner at just 5-9 190. Behind Kelly and Felton, this depth chart consists of recent undrafted free agents with no career touches. The Browns have a great lead back in Nick Chubb, but he’s not great in passing down situations and their depth behind him is questionable, so they would be in trouble if Chubb missed extended time and they could benefit from adding a veteran before training camp to give them added depth.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The Browns receiving corps was a bit of a weakness last season. Top wide receiver Amari Cooper had a great year, with a 78/1160/9 slash line, 2.06 yards per route run, and a 81.2 PFF grade, producing well despite inconsistent quarterback play. With a 1.88 career yards per route run average, a career 81/1120/7 average slash line per 17 games, and seven seasons above 70 on PFF, last season was not out of the ordinary for Cooper, who should continue playing at a similar level again in 2023, still only in his age 29 season. However, the rest of this wide receiver group was mediocre last season, so the Browns used a 3rd round pick on Tennessee wide receiver Cedric Tillman and traded away the equivalent of a third round pick in draft capital to acquire 2021 2nd round pick Elijah Moore from the Jets. 

Moore is the much more likely of the two to make an impact in 2023. He flashed a lot of potential with a 71.2 PFF grade, 43/538/5 slash line, and 1.75 yards per route run as a rookie in 2021, but he fell out of favor with the coaching staff last season in year two and had just a 57.5 PFF grade, 37/446/1 slash line, and 0.90 yards per route run in a reduced role, before ultimately getting traded this off-season. Only in his age 23 season, Moore still has a lot of potential and the Browns clearly value him, trading away significant draft capital for him, despite him only having two years left on his contract. He could prove to be a disappointment, but he also has breakout potential in what could be a big role as the #2 wide receiver on what should be a much pass heavier offense this season.

Donovan Peoples-Jones was the #2 wide receiver last season with a 61/839/3 slash line on 96 targets, but his 1.46 yards per route run average was middling at best and his career yards per route run of 1.56 isn’t much better, so the 2020 6th round pick would probably be better off as the third wide receiver. The rookie Tillman could also push for a role in year one, which would also cut into Peoples-Jones playing time and targets. 

The Browns also used 3rd round picks in 2021 and 2022 on wide receivers Anthony Schwartz and David Bell and Bell actually played 514 snaps as the third receiver last season, but they have averaged just 0.70 yards per route run and 0.82 yards per route run respectively in their careers and, with Moore and Tillman being brought in, as well as 6th round rookie Michael Woods, both Schwartz and Bell are likely to be on the roster bubble this season and are unlikely to make much of an impact even if they do make the team. Bell moving from the #3 wide receiver role, in which he struggled mightily in 2022 (113th out of 115 eligible wide receivers on PFF), to potentially being off the roster shows how this group is now significantly deeper than a year ago.

With inconsistent play at wide receiver behind Amari Cooper last season, tight end David Njoku was actually second on the team with a 1.55 yards per route run average, leading to a 58/628/4 slash line in 14 games, a career best in both yards per route run and yards per game. His 73.7 PFF grade was also the best of his career. A first round pick in 2017, Njoku hasn’t quite lived up to the billing, but he has exceeded 60 on PFF in every healthy season in the league and he’s gotten more playing time in recent years after splitting snaps earlier in his career. Still only in his age 27 season, he should remain a solid, if unspectacular tight end option. The Browns are deeper at wide receiver than a year ago so Njoku might not have the same target share, but there also probably will be more targets to go route on what will likely be a more pass-heavy team this year.

Harrison Bryant played 563 snaps as the #2 tight end last season, as the Browns ran two-tight sets often to mask their lack of wide receiver depth. They probably won’t run as many this season, so there will likely be fewer snaps for a #2 tight end, and Bryant has been a decent option throughout his career, as the 2020 4th round pick has played 518 snaps per season, holding up as a blocker, averaging 1.08 yards per route run route, and posting overall grades of 60.7, 64.8, and 59.3 respectively on PFF, but the Browns also still felt the need to add another tight end this off-season, signing veteran Jordan Akins, a former starter with the Texans. Akins has never exceeded 500 yards receiving in a season and he’s now going into his age 31 season, but he does have a decent 1.27 yards per route average for his career and he’s not totally over the hill, so he could contribute in a limited role, at a deep tight end position. This isn’t a great receiving corps, but they are definitely better than a year ago.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Browns still finished the 2022 season 8th in offensive DVOA, even with Deshaun Watson missing most of the season and struggling upon his return. With Watson having bounce back potential in his first year as a full season starter in Cleveland, the Browns’ offense has a good chance to be a high level unit in 2023, but their defense was a problem a year ago, ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA. Fortunately, there are reasons to be optimistic on this side of the ball. For one, defensive performance is much more inconsistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance and the Browns are more talented on defense than their rank last season, so they have a good chance to regress to the mean and be at least an average defense this season. 

They also should be healthier, after having the 9th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league on defense in 2022, and they have made some key additions, including new talented defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. From an on-the-field standpoint, probably their biggest addition was interior defensive Dalvin Tomlinson, who comes over from the Vikings on a 4-year, 57 million dollar deal, giving the Browns a huge upgrade at a position where the Browns best player a year ago was Taven Bryan, who only had a 60.0 grade on 642 snaps and who is no longer on the team. 

Aside from Bryant, the Browns top interior defenders a year ago 2020 3rd round pick Jordan Elliott (703 snaps), 2022 4th round pick Perrion Winfrey (342 snaps), and 2021 4th round pick Tommy Togiai (225 snaps), who had grades of 40.4, 37.3, and 41.6 respectively on PFF. They’re all young, remain on the roster, and still have upside, but they have a long way to go towards being even decent rotational players, with Elliott also receiving grades of 55.3 and 41.6 on snap counts of 307 and 464 in his first two seasons in the league respectively and Togiai struggling mightily on just 125 snaps as a rookie before struggling mightily again last season.

Tomlinson, meanwhile, has exceeded 70 on PFF in all six seasons in the league since going in the 2nd round in 2017, on an average of 610 snaps per game, and he should continue doing so in 2023, still only going in his age 29 season. He’s at his best as a run defender, but he’s become a better pass rusher in recent years, with 8.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a 7.7% pressure rate over the past three seasons combined. He’s a huge addition at a position of need. The Browns also added Baylor’s Siaka Ika in the 3rd round of this year’s draft and he will compete to play a role right away. He will probably have some growing pains in year one, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over the Browns’ other young interior defenders. 

The Browns also took fliers on Trysten Hill and Maurice Hurst in free agency and they will compete for roles as well, though they could just as easily wind up off the final roster. Hill was a 2nd round pick in 2019, but injuries and inconsistent play have limited him to 733 snaps played in 31 games in four seasons in the league. He’s still only going into his age 25 and he has shown a little potential with grades of 65.3 and 62.8 over the past two seasons, but that has been on snap counts of just 171 and 229 respectively, so he’s still a projection to anything more than a deep rotational role.

Hurst has also had injury issues throughout his career, only playing in 42 of 82 possible games in five seasons in the league, including just two games (41 snaps) over the past two seasons. In his healthiest seasons, he has received grades of 71.4, 73.1, and 77.9 on PFF on snap counts of 472 snaps, 522 snaps, and 277 snaps in 2018, 2019, and 2020 respectively, playing the run well and managing a 7.7% pressure rate, and he’s still only in his age 28 season, so there’s potential here if he can stay healthy. However, that’s a big if and it’s possible that injuries have sapped his abilities and that, even if he can stay on the field, he might not be as effective as he once was. The Browns added talent to the interior defender position this off-season, particularly free agent Dalvin Tomlinson, and they have options with upside aside from him, but none of those other options are guarantees, as it’s a mix of inexperienced and unproven young players and players with significant injury histories. 

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

The Browns also signed edge defender Za’Darius Smith in free agency to replace free agent departure Jadeveon Clowney. Clowney was allowed to leave despite a 75.8 PFF grade a year ago, but he also consistently had injury problems, including injuries that limited him to just 494 snaps played in 12 games last season, and Smith is a similar caliber player who will likely be more durable and who could even prove to be an upgrade over Clowney, who was good, but not great in his tenure in Cleveland.

Excluding an injury plagued 2021 season, Smith has played 49.9 snaps per game while playing 64 of a possible 65 games in his last 4 seasons and topping 70 overall on PFF in all four of those seasons, especially excelling as a pass rusher, with 44.5 sacks, 71 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate. Smith is now heading into his age 31 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, with a 82.2 PFF grade in 2022, second best of his career. Even if he isn’t quite as good as that again in 2023, he should remain an above average every down starter for the Browns, barring an unexpected massive decline.

Smith will start next to Myles Garrett, who is one of the best players in the league at his position. The first overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, Garrett has had a grade of 80 or higher on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including back-to-back seasons over 90 over the past two seasons, when he has had 32 sacks, 27 hits, and a 14.6% pressure rate in 33 games. Very much in the prime of his career in his age 28 season, Garrett should be on the short list of Defensive Player of the Year candidates going into this season.

Depth was a problem for the Browns at the edge defender position a year ago, with Alex Wright posting just a 38.4 grade on 543 snaps as the top reserve, but the 2022 3rd round pick could be better in his second season in the league and he’s unlikely to have to play as play of a role anyway, with the Browns adding veteran Ogbo Okoronkwo in free agency on a 3-year, 19 million dollar deal and using a 4th round pick on Missouri’s Isaiah McGuire. McGuire might be too raw to contribute beyond a deep rotational role in year one, but Okoronkwo is a talented rotational edge defender who figures to have a positive impact.

Okoronkwo was buried on the depth chart in a talented position group early in his career with the Rams, despite being a 5th round pick in 2018, playing just 528 total snaps in his first four seasons in the league combined, but he impressed with a 12.5% pressure rate in limited action and carried that into a larger role with the Texans in 2022, playing 517 snaps, receiving a 75.1 overall grade from PFF, and totaling 5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 13.4% pressure rate in a part-time role. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023. WIth Garrett, Smith, and Okoronkwo as the Browns’ top-3 edge defenders and Wright and McGuire having upside behind them, this is an impressive position group.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The group where the Browns had the most injuries on defense last season was their linebacking corps. The Browns entered last season with a pair of talented every down options, Anthony Walker and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, and a good third option Sione Takitaki, who could also play a bigger role if needed. However, Walker went down from the year with injury after 120 snaps in 3 games, excelling with a 82.7 PFF grade, while Owusu-Koramoah also had a solid season with a 65.5 PFF grade, but was limited to 535 snaps in 11 games by injuries of his own. Takitaki also had a solid 66.5 grade in an extended role of 41.5 snaps per game, but he also missed time, limited to 12 games, leaving Deion Jones (422 snaps), Jacob Phillips (320 snaps), Tony Fields (276 snaps), Jordan Kunaszyk (101 snaps), and Jermaine Carter (93 snaps) to all see snaps and all of them struggled, finishing below 60 on PFF. 

Walker, Owusu-Koramoah, and Takitaki should all be back healthy for 2023 and have the potential to be the above average group they would have been last season if they had been healthy. Walker’s grade in his limited action last season was a fluke for him, as he’s never even exceeded 70 on PFF in another season, but he’s also exceeded 60 on all but one of his six seasons in the league, including a 69.1 grade on 701 snaps in his last healthy season in 2021. Still only in his age 28 season, having played an average of 726 snaps per season in his four seasons prior to last year, Walker should remain at least a solid player in close to an every down role in 2023.

Owusu-Koramoah has the highest upside of the bunch, as he was a 2nd round pick in 2021, had a 76.5 PFF grade on 597 snaps as a rookie, and then had a grade of 69.5 through 7 games last season before getting hurt. He’s still pretty inexperienced with an average of 566 snaps played per season played in two years in the league, but he has a high upside and is only going into his age 24 season, so he could easily take a step forward and be an above average player in an every down role for a full season in 2023.

Takitaki, meanwhile, has never played more in a season than the 498 snaps he played last season, but the 2019 3rd round pick has received grades of 64.4, 71.2, 67.5, and 66.5 in his four seasons in the league and would seem to have the upside to hold up in a larger role for an extended period of time if he ever got the chance without getting hurt himself, like he did a year ago. Still only going into his age 28 season, he is one of the best third linebackers in the league and, with the Browns running a 4-3 defense, he will play at least a part-time role in base packages, while providing useful depth in case Walker or Owusu-Koramoah get hurt again. With his rookie deal expired, the Browns kept him on a reasonable 1-year, 2.43 million dollar deal in free agency. 

The Browns also still have 2020 3rd round pick Jacob Phillips, 2021 5th round pick Tony Fields, and 2019 undrafted free agent Kunaszyk, but Phillips has mostly struggled while playing just 612 total career snaps in three seasons in the league, Fields didn’t play a snap as a rookie, before struggling in a limited role last season, while Kunaszyk has only played 121 defensive snaps in four seasons in the league and has shown very little promise. They’re not horrible depth options though, at a position group with a talented top trio, which should stay a lot healthier than a year ago, when their depth was exposed in a way that is more than any team would expect to have to deal with.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Browns overhauled the safety position this off-season. John Johnson wasn’t bad with a 62.8 PFF grade in 17 starts last season (1,056 snaps), but he wasn’t worth the 9.75 million he was owed for 2023, so the Browns understandably let him go and they also let go of Ronnie Harrison, who struggled with a 46.0 PFF grade on 259 snaps. In their place, the Browns signed veteran starters Juan Thornhill and Rodney McLeod in free agency, to contracts worth 21 million over 3 years and 1.3175 million over 1 year respectively. They will compete for the two starting roles with top holdover Grant Delpit, who had a 63.6 PFF grade in 17 starts (1,086 snaps). 

Delpit was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and, while the early part of his career was injury plagued, costing him 18 games in his first two seasons, including his entire rookie season, he still had a decent 63.3 grade in 15 starts when on the field in his second season in the league in 2021 and he continued that in a healthier 2022 season. Still only going into his age 25 season, Delpit should remain at least a decent starter in 2023, with the upside for more if he takes a step forward and has the best season of his career in his fourth season in the league. He will likely keep his starting job, even with free agent additions Thornhill and McLeod both being experienced starters.

Thornhill’s contract suggests he’s much more likely to start than McLeod and he’s been a solid starter for most of his career, since going in the 2nd round in 2019. He slipped to 52.8 on PFF in 2020 after his 2019 season ended with an ACL tear, but, aside from that, he has grades of 71.5, 70.2, and most recently 67.1 in his career and should remain a solid starter in his age 28 season in 2023. McLeod, however, was actually the better player a year ago, with a 80.1 grade in 15 starts. 

McLeod came cheap because he’s going into his age 33 season, but he’s been a solid starter for years, with 122 starts in 124 games in the past nine seasons, exceeding 60 on PFF in each of those seasons, including six seasons over 70 and what was actually a career best in 2022, despite his age. I wouldn’t expect him to repeat the best year of his career again in 2023, especially given his age, but he could still remain a starting caliber player and, even if he doesn’t secure a starting job, with Delpit and Thornhill being the favorites, McLeod is still a great insurance and situational option to have.

The Browns also have a good trio at the cornerback position. Denzel Ward is supposed to be the best of the bunch, signed to a 5-year, 100.5 million dollar extension that makes him the 2nd highest paid cornerback in the league in terms of average annual salary, but he did fall to 56.3 in PFF grade last year and was part of the problem for this defense. However, there’s a reason he got that contract in the first place, as he received grades of 78.9, 69.9, 72.8, and 76.9 from PFF in his first four seasons in the league, after going 4th overall in 2018, and his struggles in 2022 were likely injury related, so he has a lot of bounce back potential in 2023, still only in his age 26 season. Durability has been a problem for him throughout a career, missing at least two games due to injury in all five seasons in the league, so he’ll probably miss more time with injury at some point this year, but he has a good chance to be an above average starter again when on the field.

Greg Newsome was also a first round pick, selected 26th overall in 2021. He hasn’t been bad through two seasons in the league, with grades of 68.1 and 69.1 on snap counts of 691 and 907 respectively, and he has the upside to take a step forward and have his best year yet in his third season in the league in 2023, but he may have been surpassed on the depth chart, to no fault of his own, by Martin Emerson, a 2022 3rd round pick who had an impressive 72.5 grade on 783 snaps as a rookie. Both Emerson and Newsome will play big roles in 2023 and both have a lot of upside, but it’s possible Emerson ends up as the de facto #2 cornerback, with Newsome being more of a slot specialist.

Behind their top-3 at cornerback, the Browns have 2021 6th round pick Thomas Graham, who has flashed potential, but who has played just 149 snaps in his career, 2020 undrafted free agent AJ Green, who has been up and down in 319 career snaps, 2018 undrafted free agent Mike Ford, a career reserve who has never played more than 316 snaps in a season, and 5th round rookie Cameron Mitchell, who is likely too raw to make a significant impact as a rookie. Those are all underwhelming options, so the Browns could be in a little bit of trouble if they suffer one or especially multiple injuries at the cornerback position, but this is a solid secondary overall.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Browns are stuck in by far the tougher of the two conferences, but even still they are a very talented team that has some sleeper potential. Their potential hinges on quarterback Deshaun Watson returning to form, or at least close to it, but the Browns surround him with a great offensive line and running game, and an improved receiving corps, on an offense that ranked 8th in DVOA last season, despite inconsistent quarterback play. Their defense, on the other hand, ranked just 23rd in DVOA last season, but they should be better this season.

Dalvin Tomlinson upgrades the interior defender position. Za’Darius Smith is likely to be healthier than Jadeveon Clowney at the edge defender position. They’ll likely have better health in the linebacking corps, and they’ll likely get a bounce back year from expected top cornerback Denzel Ward, as well as an improved coaching staff, led by experienced coordinator Jim Schwartz. They have the talent to be an above average unit on defense, as well as on offense, and they should at least compete for a playoff spot, even with as many other contenders as there are in the AFC. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 12-5, 2nd in AFC North