Browns

San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, 49ers, Browns, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (4-8) at Cleveland Browns (2-10)

The Browns have the league’s worst record, so the public seems to be confused why they’re favored here, at home against the 49ers, as the public is all over the visitor. I’m confused why they’re not favored by more. They were favored by a field goal a week ago on the early line. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense. It makes sense to do both here, so the Browns are an intriguing side.

They’re a better team than the 49ers, ranking 30th, as opposed to 32nd for San Francisco. That might not seem like a big difference, but the 49ers are so far into last place that the Browns are closer to 17th than last. Given that, it doesn’t make any sense why the line moved off of 3 (even with talented guard Joel Bitonio now out for the season with the Browns), considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal or less. I actually think the Browns should be favored by more than a field goal and that the 49ers overtime win in Chicago was a fluke, so, while teams are 56-44 ATS since 2002 after winning on the road in overtime, we’re still getting enough line value with the Browns to compensate.

The Browns are in a tough spot with a trip to Seattle on deck, for a game in which the early line has them as 13.5 point road underdogs. Teams are 88-145 ATS since 2008 before being double digit underdogs, including 17-31 ATS as favorites. However, the 49ers also have a very tough game on deck, as the early line has them as 7 point underdogs at home for the Bengals next week. Teams are 42-88 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs, since 2008. As long as the line stays under 3, the Browns should be the right side.

Cleveland Browns 19 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -1.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (9-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-9)

This line was a touchdown in favor of the visiting Bengals last week, but since has moved to 9.5. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but I think this line is still pretty appropriate, even with the Bengals missing tight end Tyler Eifert. The Bengals rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Browns are all the way down at 30th. They haven’t had many injuries this season and losing Eifert is very tough, but it’s hard to argue against this line being appropriate as long as it stays in single digits.

The Bengals are also in a good spot, hosting the Steelers next week, a game in which they could easily be 6+ point favorites. Favorites of 6+ or more, like the Bengals this week, are 80-42 ATS since 2012 before a game in which they will be 6+ point favorites again. It makes sense that good teams would be able to take care of business without any upcoming distractions and blow out an inferior opponent. I don’t have any confidence in the Bengals and I’d switch my pick to the Browns if the line jumps to 10, as about 6% of games are decided by exactly 10 points and 10+ point underdogs are 54-32 ATS before being favorites (as the Browns will be when they host the 49ers next week) since 2002. I wouldn’t take either side with any confidence though.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -9.5

Confidence: None

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Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (3-7) at Cleveland Browns (2-8)

This has been the season from hell for the Ravens. After going 11-5, winning a playoff game, and finishing the season 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential a year ago, the Ravens lost outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, wide receiver Torrey Smith, and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak this off-season. And then during the season, they’ve lost 1st round pick wide receiver (and Torrey Smith replacement) Breshad Perriman, wide receiver Steve Smith, outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, center Jeremy Zuttah, and, as of last week, quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Justin Forsett for the season with injury. They’re also likely going to be missing offensive linemen Kelechi Osemele and Eugene Monroe with injury this week.

As a result, the Ravens are 3-7, rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, and are even less talented than that suggests now with Flacco, Forsett, Osemele, and Monroe all out. The Ravens have to go with a backfield of quarterback Matt Schaub, a 34-year-old making his first start since 2013, when he really struggled with the Texans, and running back Javorius Allen, a 4th round rookie who has averaged 3.89 yards per carry on 64 carries in his career, behind a patchwork offensive line. That has flipped this line from Baltimore being favored by 2.5 on the early line last week to now being 3.5 point underdogs.

The Browns aren’t any better though and they might be worse. The Browns rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential and shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal against anyone other than San Francisco. It’s possible looking back in a week that I’ll say that the Ravens should be added to that list and it’s very possible I don’t know quite how bad the Ravens will be without Flacco, Forsett, Monroe, and Osemele, but I’d like the Browns a lot more as 3 point favorites than 3.5 point favorites because about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal.

The Ravens are also in a better spot. They lost to the Browns earlier this year as home favorites in Baltimore, but teams are 53-30 ATS as divisional road underdogs in a regular season rematch against a divisional opponent they previously lost to as home favorites. On the other side, the Browns host the Bengals next week, a game in which they are expected to be 7 point home underdogs. Teams are 23-53 ATS since 2012 before being 6+ point home underdogs and 14-31 ATS over that same time period before being 7+ point home underdogs. I can’t put any money on the Ravens, but they’re the pick here.

Update: The line has jumped to 4.5. I’ll bite. Even if the Browns win, close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or less. The Ravens are in a better spot and the Browns shouldn’t be favored by more than four points over anyone except maybe the 49ers.

Cleveland Browns 19 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (2-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger injured his foot last week against the Raiders and, though he’s gotten some limited practice in this week, the injury is typically a multi-week one and he’s not expected to play in this game against Cleveland, ahead of Pittsburgh’s bye next week. Landry Jones would start in his absence. That’s a big deal, as the Steelers have really struggled offensively this season without Roethlisberger. In the 3 games he’s started and finished, the Steelers have moved the chains at a 77.08% rate, as opposed to 66.48% in their other 6. Jones is better than Michael Vick, who was making starts earlier this season in Roethlisberger’s absence, but he’s still a clear downgrade under center.

It’s not just the Roethlisberger injury. The Steelers have lost running back Le’Veon Bell and left tackle Kelvin Beachum for the season with injuries, while Maurkice Pouncey has yet to play and may not return this season. That’s 4 key starters from last year’s dominant offense, which had next to no injuries. On the defensive side of the ball, James Harrison is expected to be out, which means the Steelers could also be without one of their top defensive players. The Browns have injuries too, missing cornerback Joe Haden, safety Donte Whitner, and left guard Joel Bitonio, but Haden and Whitner have missed significant time this year already and haven’t played well when on the field. The Steelers rank 18th on the season in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 28th for the Browns, but, given all of their injuries, they should not be favored by 6 points here at home.

That’s relevant for more than the obvious reason. Good teams tend to beat up inferior teams going into a bye, as home favorites of 6+ are 59-20 ATS before a bye since 2008. However, small home favorites struggle going into a bye, probably because they get caught looking forward to the bye. Home favorites of 1-5.5 are 39-63 ATS going into a bye, over the same time period. The Steelers are favored by 6, but I think the logic of the latter trend applies better here. The Steelers are in a bad spot anyway, as teams are 29-49 ATS as home favorites off of a win by 1-3 points as favorites, since 2008. The Steelers won by a field goal as home favorites against Oakland last week. Despite that, the public is all over them and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run. It makes sense here.

It also helps that the Browns are in their 2nd straight road game, following their loss in Cincinnati last week. Teams are 122-87 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 100-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 211-214 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.46 points per game, as opposed to 296-419 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.99 points per game. I’m taking the 6 points with confidence.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Cleveland Browns 19

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +6

Confidence: High

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Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (2-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-0)

The Bengals are 7-0 for the first time in franchise history and are one of four remaining undefeated teams. Their undefeated season is highly unlikely to end this week, as they’re favored by 10 at home against the lowly Browns. I actually don’t think that line is high enough, as the Bengals rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Browns rank all the way down at 27. This is a matchup between one of the worst teams in the league and one of the best teams in the league and I don’t think this line quite reflects that. I have this line calculated at around 15.

That’s before we even get into these two teams’ respective injury situations. The Bengals have a couple of starters who will likely miss this game because of injury, linebacker Rey Maualuga and right tackle Andre Smith, but the Browns will likely be missing quarterback Josh McCown, wide receiver Brian Hartline, wide receiver Andrew Hawkins, cornerback Joe Haden, and safety Donte Whitner. On their own, none of those injuries are too damaging to this team (Haden and Whitner are having down years), but they all add up. The biggest one might be the one to their quarterback McCown. McCown isn’t very good, but Manziel is probably even worse and the task of preparing for a team like the Bengals, on the road, on a short week when you’ve had very little practice time with the first team is borderline impossible, especially with some receivers also missing with injury.

The Bengals are also in a great spot with no upcoming distractions on the horizon, hosting the Texans next week. The Browns, meanwhile, have to turn around and go to Pittsburgh next week. The Bengals will undoubtedly be favored by 6+ again, while the Browns undoubtedly will be underdogs of 6+ again. Teams are 77-39 ATS since 2012 as favorites of 6+ about being favorites of 6+ again, while underdogs of 6+ are 40-63 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ again. Combining the two, teams are 35-13 ATS as favorites of 6+ before being favorites of 6+ when their opponent will be underdogs of 6+ again the following week, since 2010. There’s just too much for the Browns to overcome this week and, without a ton of public money on Cincinnati, I’m really confident in the Bengals as 10 point favorites. There are a few other lines I really like this week, but this one is definitely up there.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -10

Confidence: High

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Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Browns, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (5-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-5)

Typically, I like fading significant line movements, because they tend to be week-to-week overreactions. This game does feature one, as the Cardinals were 4 point favorites on the early line last week, but are now favored by 6, probably as a result of the Browns’ big loss in St. Louis. However, I still like the Cardinals’ chances of winning big here on the road in Cleveland and covering this line. The Cardinals are “only” 5-2, but they rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains differential battle in all 7 games.

In their 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence for why a team is good or bad. The Cardinals, despite 2 losses, have been very dominant through the first 6 weeks of the season.

Who they’re dominating is a concern though. They haven’t played a very tough schedule, playing New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco, St. Louis, Detroit, Pittsburgh (with Michael Vick/Landry Jones), and Baltimore. However, the Browns aren’t really better than any of those teams. They rank just 24th in rate of moving the chains differential. They get cornerback Joe Haden and safety Tashaun Gipson back from injury this week, but neither one of them was playing that well before getting hurt and the Cardinals are essentially at full strength injury wise as well. Even with this line moving up to 6, I still think we’re getting line value with the Cardinals.

The Cardinals are also in a way better spot, going into the bye. Good teams tend to take care of business going into a bye and win big as big favorites. Home favorites of 6+ going into the bye are 59-20 ATS since 2002. The Cardinals, unfortunately, are not at home for this one, but 3+ point road favorites are still 39-25 ATS going into a bye, for the same reason. It’s not as powerful of a trend as the other one, but the logic behind both is the same.

The Browns, meanwhile, need to turn around and play the Bengals on Thursday Night Football next week, a game in which they’re expected to be underdogs of 9.5. Underdogs of 6+ are 40-61 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ again the following week, and that’s before you even take into account the upcoming short week. The Cardinals should have no problem beating up on the Browns, as they have against many similar caliber opponents, with no upcoming distractions on the horizon going into the bye. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because of all the public money pouring in on Arizona.

Arizona Cardinals 27 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona -6

Confidence: High

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Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (2-4) at St. Louis Rams (2-3)

One of the most important things to look at when picking a side against the spread is who the teams are playing next. Typically, the difficulty of a team’s upcoming matchup seems to at least correlate with their likelihood of covering this time. In this game between the Browns and Rams in St. Louis, the Browns have easily the tougher upcoming matchup, as they host the NFC West leading Arizona Cardinals, while the Rams host the bottom dwelling San Francisco 49ers. While the Browns are expected to be 4 point home underdogs, the Rams are expected to be at least 6 point home favorites next week. Teams are 71-123 ATS since 2010 before being 4+ point home underdogs and 109-67 ATS over that same time period as 6+ point favorites (as the Rams are here as 6.5 point favorites) before being 6+ point favorites (as the Rams are expected to be again next week against the 49ers).

However, the Rams really do not deserve to be favored by 6.5 points, as they rank 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, thanks to a pitiful offense that moves the chains at the league’s worst rate. Through 5 games, they have just 72 first downs to 97 for their opponents. There’s a very good chance they finish with 6 wins or fewer this season and teams that finish with that few wins only cover the spread about a quarter of the time as favorites of 6 or more. It’s a tough trend to use because you don’t always know that a team won’t win that many games, especially early in the season like this, but I’m making an educated guess.

Besides, the Browns, while they have their own issues, rank 18th in rate of moving the chains differential, so there’s really no reason the Rams should be favored by 6.5 here at home. They’re not 3.5-4 points better than the Browns. They should be favored by only like 2 points, even with an easy game on deck for the Rams and a tougher one on deck for the Browns. The Browns are missing defensive backs Joe Haden and Tashaun Gipson with injury in this one, but neither of them have been playing that well anyway. Meanwhile, the Rams are without outside linebacker Alec Ogletree and defensive end Chris Long from a defense that is keeping this team afloat. As long as this line is higher than 6, I have no problem putting money on the Browns.

St. Louis Rams 17 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Broncos, Browns, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (5-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-3)

The Broncos are 5-0, but are not a convincing 5-0, playing a schedule that hasn’t been that tough, Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit, Minnesota, and Oakland and not pretty beating any of those teams with much ease. They rank just 12th in rate of moving the chains differential. Cleveland isn’t that good, but they’re not awful either, ranking 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential. They do have a solid chance to keep this one close and cover as 4.5 point home underdogs here.

However, I do expect the Broncos to be more focused than they’ve been all year in this one, ahead of a bye week.  I mentioned in the Packers/Chargers write up that 6+ point home favorites going into the bye are 59-19 ATS since 2002. The Broncos, unfortunately, are not at home for this one, but 3+ point road favorites are still 38-23 ATS going into a bye, for the same reason. It’s not as powerful of a trend as the other one, but the logic behind both is the same.

The Broncos are without outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware in this one, but they’ll plug in first round pick Shane Ray and the Browns will also be without cornerback Joe Haden and safety Tashaun Gipson. Neither of those two has been playing well, but those injuries definitely hurt their chances of turning their disappointing defense around this week. I’ll be going with the Broncos, but I’m not confident at all. As I mentioned, the Broncos haven’t played that well this season and the Browns could keep this close. On top of that, the Browns are in a good spot off of an overtime win as road underdogs. Teams are 34-23 ATS since 2002 in that spot. This won’t be easy for Denver.

Denver Broncos 19 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -4.5

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Browns, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (1-3) at Baltimore Ravens (1-3)

The Baltimore Ravens have had a tough start to their season. They played their first 2 games on the road, in Denver and Oakland, losing both. The Oakland game was one they should have won and needed to win, but there’s no shame in losing in Denver and both games were very close. Then they hosted the Bengals week 3, their only game at home thus far this season, a very tough game, not just because the Bengals are one of the best teams in the NFL, but because teams typically struggle in week 3 home openers (as a result of all the travelling they had to do to start the season) and because they had a divisional clash in Pittsburgh in 3 days on Thursday Night Football the following week.

The Ravens lost another excruciatingly close game against the Bengals week 3 and then won an excruciatingly close overtime game in Pittsburgh last week, against the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers. You can make the argument that the Ravens should be 0-4, but you can just as easily make the argument that the Ravens should be 4-0 with wins over Denver and Cincinnati, two currently undefeated teams.

In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, the Ravens rank 26th (actually worse than the Browns, who rank 25th). I don’t think that’s representative of how good the Ravens are though and it’s important to remember that it’s early and they’ve dealt with a lot of difficult situations. They aren’t the same team that finished 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014, but I think their actual talent level is much closer to that than to where they currently fall in those rankings. Meanwhile, the Browns are playing very similarly to last season (when they finished 26th), so I think their current ranking is much more representative of them than the Ravens’ is.

Part of the reason why the Ravens aren’t as good this season is injuries (in addition to off-season losses of Haloti Ngata, Pernell McPhee, and Torrey Smith) and the Ravens are incredibly thin in the receiving corps for this one, missing expected starting tight end Crockett Gilmore and expected starting wide receivers Steve Smith and Breshad Perriman with injury from a receiving corps that was thin to begin with. The Smith injury is new, but Gilmore’s and Perriman’s aren’t and this line did seem to move to compensate for the Smith injury. The Ravens were 8.5 point favorites in the early line last week, but are only 6.5 point favorites now.

Conversely, I don’t think the line appropriately compensated for Eugene Monroe’s expected return from a concussion that knocked him out week 1. James Hurst had been playing at left tackle in his absence and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked offensive tackle through 4 weeks. Monroe’s return could really help an offensive line that was really good last season, but hasn’t been thus far this season. Meanwhile, the Browns are expected to be without talented safety Tashaun Gipson in this one, after being relatively injury free thus far this season.

This is the easiest game of the Ravens’ season thus far and I think they have a good chance to beat the Browns by quite a bit and cover this 6.5 point line. Not only is this is easiest opponent of their season, but they have no upcoming distractions with a trip to San Francisco on deck, while the Browns have to host the Broncos next week in arguably the toughest game of their season, a game in which they are expected to be 5.5 point underdogs. Teams are 66-111 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, 35-76 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 19-50 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you’re about to host a very tough opponent, serving as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. With the Browns, I think it’s both. In addition, home favorites are 93-61 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites when their opponent will next be home underdogs.

On top of that, The Ravens are typically a much better team at home than on the road in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era and they’re in a much better spot against a much easier opponent than their first home game. They are 47-12 at home since 2008, outscoring their opponents by an average of 10.08 points per game, as opposed to 36-36 on the road, outscoring their opponents by an average of just 1.00 points per game. They’re also 22-13 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of a touchdown or less over that time period, as they are here.

It does help the Browns that they are in their 2nd straight road game, after losing in San Diego last week. Teams are 118-84 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 96-58 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 199-206 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.40 points per game, as opposed to 291-401 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.93 points per game. That being said, as long as this line is less than a touchdown, I’m still confident enough to put money down on Baltimore.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 4 NFL Picks, Browns, Chargers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (1-2) at San Diego Chargers (1-2)

The Chargers are 1-2, but their losses both came on the road against Cincinnati and Minnesota, a pair of solid teams. They still rank 19th in rate of moving the chains differential, decent considering they’ve had a tougher schedule than most teams. They finished last season 13th and I thought they’d be even better than that this season, a goal that is certainly still in reach as the schedule gets easier. A borderline playoff team in 2013 and 2014, the Chargers’ secondary is significantly better than it was in 2013 thanks to the additions of Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett, while their offense should be significantly healthier than it was in 2014, when they led the league in adjusted games lost to injury.

The Chargers schedule does get easier this week as a mediocre at best Browns team comes to town. The Browns have a talented defense and a strong offensive line, but next to no offensive skill position players and a bunch of guys who are underperforming defensively. Their defense has the talent to turn it around and could do so this week, but they’re still an easier matchup for San Diego than anyone else they’ve played this season.

The Chargers’ offensive line is banged up as they’ll likely be missing 3 starters, left tackle King Dunlap, left guard Orlando Franklin, and center Chris Watt with injury, while right guard DJ Fluker is still working back from an ankle sprain, but they’re back at home now and also get both Flowers and Verrett back from injury. Flowers missed last week’s game in Minnesota, while Verrett was knocked out after 20 snaps with a foot problem. Both should start and play well this week, cancelling out some of their injuries on the offensive line. Despite their record, they definitely deserve to be favored by at least the 7 points they’re favored by here.

They’re also in a much better spot here than the Browns. While the Browns have another tough game on deck, a trip to Baltimore to play the division rival Ravens, against whom they are expected to be 8.5 point underdogs, the Chargers get to stay home and take on the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers, a game in which they are expected to be 6.5 point favorites. Teams are 105-65 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again, and, conversely, teams are just 70-95 ATS since 2010 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point underdogs again.

Combining those two trends, 6+ point favorites are 34-13 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point favorites again when their opponent will next be 6+ point underdogs. The Chargers are the significantly better team and should take care of business without any upcoming distractions against a Browns team that has a big upcoming distraction. The Chargers’ offensive line injury situation scared me off of making this my Pick of the Week, but I’d still put money on the Chargers.

San Diego Chargers 23 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against the spread: San Diego -7

Confidence: High

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