Browns

Cleveland Browns re-sign C Alex Mack

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Browns, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

This deal came about in a roundabout fashion. The Browns started the situation off by using the transition tag on Mack, which would have paid him roughly 10 million dollars for the 2014 season if he had signed it. That 10 million dollar sum was the average of the top-10 offensive linemen in the league. You almost never see an interior offensive lineman, especially a center, get any tag of any sort, transition, franchise etc. The reason for that is that interior offensive lineman are less valuable in the NFL than offensive tackles, but offensive tackles’ salaries are still taken into account when determining the value of the tag. A 10 million dollar salary, even if only for one year, would have made Mack, by the far highest paid center in the NFL in terms of average annual salary (Ryan Kalil at 8.186 million is 2nd)

Mack never signed the transition tag, but even an unsigned transition tag gave the Browns the benefit of being able to match any contract Mack got offered on the open market. As a result, Mack draw little to no interest for most of the off-season because the Browns seemed very serious about getting Mack no matter the cost and most teams don’t have the cap space to dish out the kind of money it would have taken for the Browns, who are loaded with cap space and in desperate need of difference makers, not to match.

That was until the Jaguars came along and gave him a 5 year deal worth 42 million maximum. The Jaguars, like the Browns, have a ton of cap space and a huge need for talent, so it made sense, but ultimately the Browns still matched and now have Mack under contract long-term. The Jaguars structured the contract very interestingly and the Browns are now bound to the structure by virtue of matching it. Mack will get 26 million guaranteed over the first 3 years of the deal, unless he opts out before the 3rd year. If he does opt out, it will just be a 2-year, 18 million dollar deal and the Browns won’t have the option to tag him again if he does that. At that point, he can choose to go anywhere.

The deal is still incredibly rich for a center as the 8.4 million dollar average annual salary of the deal is still the highest in the NFL among centers and he’ll make 10 million in the first year of the deal. However, it’s not a bad deal. Mack is arguably the best center in the NFL. He’s graded out as a top-10 center in each of his 5 seasons in the NFL since being drafted in the first round by the Browns in 2009. Only Chris Myers has also been in the top-10 in centers in all 5 of those seasons. Mack is also at the peak of his career, going into his age 29 season. Also, the Browns have a ton of cap space to burn and a desperate need for talent. This deal won’t prevent the Browns from signing guys like Joe Haden, Jordan Cameron, and Josh Gordon long-term.

Grade: B-

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Cleveland Browns sign MLB Karlos Dansby

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Browns, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

This was a fairly strong free agent class overall, but the one position where it was weak was at middle linebacker. Middle linebacker in general was a weak position in the NFL last season, as only 16 of 55 eligible middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus graded out positively last season. Karlos Dansby was by far the best of the free agent middle linebackers and Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked middle linebacker last season.

The Browns were one of the league’s neediest teams in terms of the middle linebacker position with D’Qwell Jackson gone and Craig Robertson not resembling a starting caliber middle linebacker (52nd out of 55 eligible last season). They cut Jackson, saving 5.23 million on the cap in doing so, and get Dansby at 24 million over 4 years (6 million dollar annual value). This deal has 14 million guaranteed, but none after the first two years, so it’s essentially a two-year, 14 million dollar deal, which is good in case he begins to decline.

Dansby might never have another year as good as last season again, as he’s going into his age 33 season, and as he had never been a top-10 middle linebacker on Pro Football Focus before this, but he graded out 12th in 2010, 11th in 2011, and 13th in 2012. He’s two years older than Jackson, but he’s still an upgrade at a comparable cost, as Jackson was Pro Football Focus’ 42nd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible last season. Considering Jackson got 22 million over 4 with the Colts, with 11 million guaranteed, and the Browns had money to spend, this is a solid deal.

Grade: A-

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Cleveland Browns sign RB Ben Tate

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Browns, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Ben Tate has certainly flashed the ability to be a feature back in the NFL. Tate was drafted in the 2nd round in 2010 by the Texans to be the starting running back, but broke his ankle in the pre-season, which opened the door for Arian Foster to emerge as one of the best running backs in the NFL. Ben Tate impressed as his backup, averaging 5.09 YPC on 240 carries in 2011 and 2012 and got his shot to be the starter in 2013 when Arian Foster went down with a season ending back injury.

Unfortunately, the injury bug reared its head for Tate again as he broke several ribs. He only missed 2 games, the final two of the season, but was definitely hampered by the injury as he averaged just 4.3 yards per carry on 181 carries. Tate clearly has the talent and toughness to be a lead back in the NFL, but he’s also missed 24 of 64 possible regular season games in his career thus far and is coming off of an injury plagued season. The running back position is becoming devalued because of their short career spans and injury proneness.

Given all that, credit the Browns for getting him on a cheap short-term deal that will pay him just 7 million dollars over 2 millions. The Browns should still add a solid backup for Tate in case the injury bug comes back, but Tate could be a dominant runner in their zone blocking scheme under Kyle Shanahan. Comparing this deal to some of the other contracts received by running backs this off-season, Darren McFadden (1 year, 4 million), Joique Bell (3 years, 9.3 million), Donald Brown (3 years, 10.5 million), and Rashad Jennings (4 years, 14 million), the Browns definitely got a very solid deal.

Grade: A-

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Cleveland Browns sign S Donte Whitner

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Browns, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Leave it to the Browns to pay 5 million dollars more over 4 years to an inferior safety. The Browns signed Donte Whitner to a 4-year, 28 million dollar deal hours before the Broncos signed former Browns safety TJ Ward to a 4-year 23 million dollar deal. Some point out that Whitner’s deal has 1 million dollars less in guaranteed money, but if your only argument for why a deal is a better deal is that it’ll be slightly easier to get out of if he doesn’t live up to his salary than you’re probably in trouble.

There’s no denying that Ward is a better player than Whitner. He’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd and 6th ranked safety in 2012 and 2013 respectively, the only safety in the NFL to finish top-6 both seasons. He’s also graded out higher than Whitner in 3 of the last 4 seasons, since Ward was drafted in the 2nd round in 2010. Finally, Ward is over a year younger, which matters.

That being said, I don’t hate this deal for two reasons. One, it’s very possible that Ward would not have cut the Browns the same deal he gave to the Broncos, as one is a Super Bowl contender and the other hasn’t made the playoffs in years. It’s entirely possible that to keep Ward, they would have had to give him 30 or 32 million over 4 years. I still would have done that deal over signing Whitner to this deal, but it’s not completely fair to grade on pure numbers here.

Also, this isn’t a terrible value for Whitner. He’s an inconsistent player who graded out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus in each season from 2008-2010 in Buffalo and who allowed 12 touchdowns in regular season and post-season combined in 2012 on a 49ers team that allowed just 26 total passing touchdowns in the regular season and post-season combined. However, he graded out 8th among safeties in 2011 and 6th among safeties in 2013. I think the Browns made the wrong safety choice, even if they would have had to pay Ward 32 million, but this isn’t an awful deal.

Grade: C+

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Cleveland Browns 2014 Off-Season Report

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Browns, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

The Browns have been the picture of turmoil since returning to the NFL in the 1999 season. In that time period, they’ve had 7 different head coaches, 5 different general managers, 3 different principal owners, 20 different starting quarterbacks, and 0 playoff wins. They are about to get their 8th head coach and 21st starting quarterback in 2014. Obviously, the new starting quarterback is going to be necessary after they botched the Brandon Weeden pick, but I don’t understand why they felt the need to let 1st year head coach Rob Chudzinski go.

What exactly was he supposed to do with this team, especially after the Trent Richardson made Willis McGahee their starting running back? Chudzinski helped coax breakout years out of raw pass catchers Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron and at some point they need to make up their mind and value stability. Also, Chudzinski’s untimely firing gives the Browns a bad rep around the NFL and makes them a very unattractive destination for head coach candidates. Josh McDaniels, their #1 target, already turned them down while Adam Gase, their reported next target, seems to be hesitant. That hurts their long-term development as a franchise.

This season wasn’t all bad. I already mentioned the breakout years of Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron, but they also had a league leading 5 All-Pro players, Joe Thomas, Alex Mack, Josh Gordon, Joe Haden, and TJ Ward. Those five were all deserving, but the problem is that two of them are free agents this off-season. The Browns undoubtedly won the Trent Richardson trade as they got the 26th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft for a guy who averaged 2.9 yards per carry with the Colts and lost his starting job to Donald Brown.

I haven’t given up on Richardson’s long-term potential and he could be much better in 2014 once he gets in better shape and more familiar with the Colts system, but the Browns are almost definitely going to come out winners at the end of the day. In hindsight, taking a running back that high in 2012, 3rd overall, was a dumb move regardless of his long-term ability so credit the Browns’ new regime for cutting bait before it was too late. The Browns have two first round picks to build around their core and if they can get the quarterback position solved, this team could get a lot better in a hurry.

Positional Needs

Quarterback

Drafting Brandon Weeden didn’t work out. In 2 seasons, the 22nd overall pick has completed 55.9% of his passes for an average of 6.53 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions. At least he’s young and has time to develop. Oh wait, he’s going to be 31 next season. Great job. The regime that drafted him is long gone and the Browns will almost definitely be looking at quarterbacks early in the draft, with two first round picks. Jason Campbell and Brian Hoyer both did some nice things this season, but probably project as backups long-term. The Browns front office is reportedly very high on Johnny Manziel, so he could be the Browns next quarterback, their 21st since 1999.

Running Back

As I mentioned, the Browns undoubtedly won the Richardson trade. However, the Browns desperately need a new starting running back. Trading Trent Richardson forced them to sign Willis McGahee off the streets to be the new starting running back and the 32-year-old averaged 2.7 yards per carry and busted just 4 carries of 10 yards or more. He’s highly unlikely to play in the NFL next season and he wouldn’t be a starting option for the Browns anyway. They need an entirely new offensive backfield. Fortunately, they can draft a running back in the mid rounds and he’d probably be significantly better than Richardson.

Wide Receiver

Rob Chudzinski’s firing was especially strange considering he coached up the once raw Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron into two of the premier players at their positions in the NFL. However, they need a 3rd option and another wide receiver opposite Gordon. Greg Little was Pro Football Focus’ lowest ranked wide receiver by a wide margin, catching 46.6% of his targets, averaging 11.3 yards per catch, dropping 8 passes to 41 catches, and had a league worst 37.4 QB rating when thrown to. After 3 years in the league, it’s time to give up on him as a starting caliber player. Slot receiver Davone Bess also struggled this season. He was Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked wide receiver, catching 42 of 83 targets for an average of 8.6 yards per catch and dropping a whopping 14 passes. He could easily be cut.

Middle Linebacker

If the Browns want to go into a complete rebuild, they could cut D’Qwell Jackson. Jackson is a veteran leader, but he has a history of injury problems and is on the decline heading into his age 31 season and owed 6.7 million in 2014. The Browns can save 3.9 million on the cap by cutting Pro Football Focus’ 42nd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. Even if they don’t, they need to find some sort of upgrade over Craig Robertson, who ranked 52nd, including dead last in coverage. He surrendered two separate 100 yard receiving games to running backs Reggie Bush and Shane Vereen.

Cornerback

The Browns desperately need help opposite Joe Haden. Buster Skrine was Pro Football Focus’ 5th worst ranked cornerback, allowing 9 touchdowns through the air and missing 20 tackles, both worst at the position. Chris Owens did a decent job in limited action, but the career backup is a free agent. Leon McFadden was a 3rd round pick in 2013, but he struggled as a rookie. They shouldn’t give up on him, but it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if he never developed into a starter considering where he was drafted so they shouldn’t count on him either.

Safety

Tashaun Gipson was an undrafted free agent in 2012 and he unsurprisingly struggled in his first year as a starter in 2013, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 68th ranked safety out of 86 eligible. He’s not terrible, but he could definitely be upgraded. This position becomes a much bigger position of need if they lost All-Pro TJ Ward to free agency, but my guess if they’ll franchise tag him. He was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked safety.

Guard

The Browns have a very solid offensive line, but their biggest hole, by far, is at right guard. Oniel Cousins and Shawn Lauvao split starts there this season and both were among the lowest ranked guards on Pro Football Focus despite their limited snaps. Grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 71st and 70th ranked guards out of 81 eligible. Lauvao is a free agent so they should take this opportunity to upgrade the position because Cousins is not a starting caliber player.

Center

Alex Mack is one of the top centers in the NFL, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked center last season and making the All-Pro team. This is how you have to hope it works out when you draft a center in the first round. Unfortunately, he’s a free agent this off-season and they can’t really franchise tag him because they’d be paying him like a tackle if they did that, far more than any other center in the NFL. If they can’t retain him, he’d have to be replaced.

Kicker

Billy Cundiff decently redeemed himself on a one year deal in Cleveland this year, after missing a chip shot to tie the AFC Championship in 2011 and going 7 of 12 and getting benched in 2012. He’s a free agent this off-season and will need to be replaced if he’s not retained.

Key Free Agents

S TJ Ward

TJ Ward blossomed into one of the top safeties in the NFL this season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked safety and being named an All-Pro. That was perfect timing as the 2010 2nd round pick will be a free agent this off-season. Chances are he’ll never hit the open market because the Browns will franchise tag him worst case scenario. He’ll get a good payday either way. He has some history of injury issues, but he’s clearly one of the game’s premier safeties and would be deserving of a contract worth around 7 million per year over 5 years. That would put him among the games top safeties.

C Alex Mack

The Browns drafted Alex Mack in the first round in 2009. It was a risky proposition, even though he was widely considered one of the top center prospects of the decade, because they would need him to emerge as a perennial Pro-Bowler. If he was just an average starter, he would have been a bust because center isn’t that valuable of a position. Unfortunately, the Browns can’t really franchise tag him because they’d be paying him like a tackle if they did that, far more than any other center in the NFL. He could be elsewhere next year if he wants.

CB Chris Owens

Chris Owens, a 3rd round pick in 2009, has been a depth cornerback for the entirety of his career. He’s been a very solid reserve in Atlanta and Cleveland over the past two years. He should get a decent amount of money on a one year or two year deal to be a nickel back somewhere. Cleveland should considering bringing him back considering their cornerback issues.

K Billy Cundiff

Billy Cundiff decently redeemed himself on a one year deal in Cleveland this year, after missing a chip shot to tie the AFC Championship in 2011 and going 7 of 12 and getting benched in 2012. He hit 21 of 26 field goals this season

Cap Casualty Candidates

OLB Quentin Groves

Having Quentin Groves, a capable reserve in Arizona in 2012, as their 4th outside linebacker was kind of overkill for the Browns. Barkevious Mingo, Jabaal Sheard, and Paul Kruger make a very good trio so there’s no need for Groves. The Browns would save 1.1 million in cap space by releasing him, which makes a lot of sense considering he played just 53 snaps last season.

QB Jason Campbell

The Browns are likely going quarterback early in the draft and they won’t keep 4 quarterbacks on their roster. They can’t cut Brandon Weeden because there’s still guaranteed money on his contract so one of Jason Campbell and Brian Hoyer is probably gone next season. Hoyer outplayed Campbell this season so Campbell is probably gone. Cutting him would save 2.25 million in cap space. Campbell turns 33 next season and completed 56.8% of his passes for an average of 6.36 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions this season. He’ll look to find backup work this off-season. He’s not a starting caliber quarterback at this point in his career.

MLB D’Qwell Jackson

If the Browns want to go into a complete rebuild, they could cut D’Qwell Jackson. Jackson is a veteran leader, but he has a history of injury problems and is on the decline heading into his age 31 season and owed 6.7 million in 2014. The Browns can save 3.9 million on the cap by cutting Pro Football Focus’ 42nd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. He struggled against the run. He had just 26 stops (tackles within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage on 1st down, 6 yards of the line of scrimmage on 2nd down, and the full distance on 3rd or 4th down) on 437 snaps, a rate of 5.9% that was the 4th worst in the NFL at his position.

DE Ahtyba Rubin

The Browns can save 6.8 million on the cap by cutting Ahtyba Rubin in his contract year this season. He’s a solid player, but he’s below average as a pass rusher and probably not worth his cap number. The Browns have an excess of defensive line depth with Billy Winn and John Hughes to go with Phil Taylor and Desmond Bryant, fellow starters, so they can move on from him pretty easily. They could still keep him to maintain their depth.

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Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Browns, Steelers, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (4-11) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8)

The situational trends say Cleveland is the right side here. For one, Cleveland is in their 2nd straight road game. Historically, teams lose by an average of 3.07 points per game on the road after a home game and 2.07 points per game on the road after a road game, as far back as my data goes (1989). One trend that goes off of this is that teams are 101-64 ATS as road underdogs off of a road loss since 2008. The Browns are in that situation off of a loss in New York to the Jets last week.

Another powerful trend is that teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 48-23 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the same season, regular season rematch. It makes sense. Matchups where the team who is favored is dependent on the location tend to be matchups between very even teams and very even teams tend to split the season series no matter what. If you’ve lost as home favorites, you have to win as road underdogs in this situation to split the season series. Teams in this situation do win as road underdogs at a .500 rate since 2002 (39-39) and an even higher percentage, as previously mentioned, about 2/3rds, cover the spread, as the previous loss artificially inflates the spread. The Browns have room to play with here because they are 7 point underdogs so they can easily cover even if they don’t win.

However, that assumes these two teams are equal, which I don’t think is true. Cleveland is not playing good football right now, as they are on a 6 game losing streak and lost by 11 to the Jets last week, the Jets’ biggest win of the season in terms of margin of victory. They haven’t won at all since they were 2 point home favorites for the Steelers week 12. The Steelers, meanwhile, are better than their 7-8 record, as they are 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less.

They are moving the chains at a 71.90% rate, as opposed to 71.33% for their opponents, a differential of 0.57%, which ranks 13th in the NFL. The Browns, meanwhile, are all the way down at 24th, moving the chains at a 68.18% rate, as opposed to 71.78% for their opponents, a differential of -3.60%. That suggests this line should be around 7, which is where is it, so we’re not getting any real line value, but it kind of nullifies some (but not all) of that aforementioned trend because these two teams are not comparable.

On top of that, the Ben Roethlisberger led Steelers usually dominate the division. They are 37-23 ATS in divisional games since 2004, Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie year, including 34-18 ATS in games in which Ben Roethlisberger starts. On top of that, they are 10-4 ATS in divisional games in which they are favored by a touchdown or more at home since 2004. At the end of the day, the Browns are probably the right choice because they have powerful situational trends on their side, but I’m not confident at all. Pittsburgh is also my Survivor Pick of the week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Cleveland Browns 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns at New York Jets: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Browns, Jets, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (4-10) at New York Jets (6-8)

Ordinarily, I don’t like betting on games in which both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, because you never know what their individual motivations are. Sure, they’re probably going to continue trying because the majority of the individual players are playing for their jobs and salaries in 2014, but you can never be sure. I only pick a side confidently in a matchup like this when there’s a very clear right side. That’s not the case here at all.

On one hand, the Jets are in a sandwich spot here, coming off of a tough loss to the Panthers and before a bigger game against Miami next week. Teams are 81-98 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs. On top of that, teams are 80-102 ATS since 2008 as favorites off of a loss as underdogs before being underdogs again. This is a classic rest game situation as the Jets could give less than 100% for an easier game in between two much harder games.

We’re also getting line value with the Browns as the Jets are secretly one of the worst teams in the NFL. They rank 31st in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a league worst 63.41% rate, as opposed to 69.64% for their opponents, a differential of -6.23%. This makes sense as their -121 point differential is the 4th worst in the NFL ahead of only Houston, Washington, and Jacksonville. The Browns aren’t good either, moving the chains at a 67.97% rate, as opposed to 70.99% for their opponents, a differential of -3.02%, which is 23rd in the NFL. However, this line suggests these two teams are essentially even, which I don’t think is true. That suggests this line should be at a straight up pick.

On the other hand, the Jets usually bounce back off a loss well. The Jets are 5-2 both straight up and against the spread off of a loss on the season. They’re also a much better home team than road team this season. They are 5-2 straight up and against the spread at home, getting outscored by opponents by an average of 0.86 points per game. Meanwhile, on the road, they are 1-6 straight up and 3-4 against the spread, getting outscored by opponents by an average of 16.43 points per game. At home off of a loss, they are 4-1 ATS this season.

That’s because Geno Smith has been so much better at home on the road. On the road, he’s been downright abysmal, completing 55.2% of his passes for an average of 6.55 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He hasn’t been great at home, completing 55.3% of his passes for an average of 7.36 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. However, that’s so much better than he’s been on the road (a QB rating of 70.0, as opposed to 55.9 on the road) and he’s been good enough for their strong defense to carry them to at least some success.

Also, the Browns are not in a good spot either, as, like the Jets, they have a more important game next week, which could keep them from covering the spread. Next week they go to Pittsburgh and teams are 48-75 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road underdogs. On top of that, the Browns are far from full strength as they’ll likely be without Joe Haden, Jordan Cameron, and Desmond Bryant.

Haden is easily their best coverage defensive back. Jordan Cameron is a valuable #2 option in the passing game. Now the Jets just have to game plan for Josh Gordon, which will make it much easier to stop him. Desmond Bryant, meanwhile, was very much missed last week against the Bears as their strong run defense (3.7 yards per carry allowed, 3rd in the NFL) allowed the Bears, led by Matt Forte, to rush for 179 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries (5.8 yards per carry). Again, I have no confidence at all either way, but if I had to pick a side, I’d take the Jets as long as this line is below a field goal. If we were getting field goal protection, I might take the Browns. That’s how close this is.

New York Jets 13 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against spread: NY Jets -2.5

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bears, Browns, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-9)

Ordinarily, teams dominate after a Monday Night Football blowout win, carrying over the momentum from a big win into next week’s game. Since 2002, teams are 32-13 ATS off of a Monday Night Football win over 21 or more. The Bears only beat the Cowboys by 17, but that was only because of a last second touchdown by Joseph Randle that didn’t matter at all. Even though teams that win by 17 to 20 points are 11-10 ATS the following week, I think we might be able to still apply the logic here. I don’t think a meaningless last second touchdown will kill all of the Bears’ momentum. On top of that, teams that lead by 21 or more after 3 quarters of a Monday Night Football game are 21-12 ATS the following week and the Bears led 35-14 at the end of the 3rd quarter.

However, while that meaningless late second probably didn’t kill the Bears’ momentum, bringing back Jay Cutler and sending Josh McCown to the bench might. McCown was amazing in 5 starts in place of Cutler this season. His 3-2 record doesn’t tell the whole story considering how bad the Bears’ defense has been this season. I kept waiting for him to shit the bed and remind us why he was a 34-year-old career backup who last posted a quarterback rating of over 70 in 2006, but he never did, bringing back flashes of Rich Gannon. All in all, he completed 66.8% of his passes for an average of 8.22 yards per attempt, 13 touchdowns, and an interception.

Jay Cutler hasn’t been bad this season, but his numbers actually pale in comparison to McCown’s. Cutler is completing 63.0% of his passes for an average of 7.20 yards per attempt, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on the season. Even worse, he might not be 100% in his first game back from injury, like against Detroit when he completed 21 of 40 for 250 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception. On top of that, his teammates could slack off knowing their starting quarterback is back, especially for an opponent like the Browns. We’re also not getting any line value with the Bears anymore, as they are 1.5 point favorites here in Cleveland.

You might look at this line and think “how can the Bears possibly not win by 2 or more in Cleveland?” However, they lost in Minnesota just two weeks ago. Their offense has been supporting this team, moving the chains at a 75.94% rate, but their defense allows opponents to move the chains at a 75.60% rate. The Browns don’t have a good offense, moving the chains at a 67.57% rate, but they should have some success against this Chicago defense, so if Chicago’s offense doesn’t do what it’s been doing lately against a sneaky good Cleveland defense, which allows opponents to move the chains at a 70.31% rate, the Bears could easily lose this game. I have this game calculated at a straight up pick using rate of moving the chains, and that’s before you even get to the Bears’ quarterback switch.

The Bears are also in a bad spot as non-divisional road favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs in Philadelphia next week. They could be distracted. Teams are 32-52 ATS in that spot since 1989. The Browns aren’t in a great spot either, as they will be underdogs once again in New York against the Jets next week, as non-divisional home underdogs are 93-112 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional road underdogs, but it’s not the same. The Browns could also be flat off of last week’s close loss in New England, but I don’t have any trend suggesting they would be. At the end of the day, I’m taking the Bears and hoping their offense can carry them and their momentum from last week will carry over, but I’m not confident.

Chicago Bears 24 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against spread: Chicago -1.5

Confidence: Low

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Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Browns, Patriots, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (4-8) at New England Patriots (9-3)

Last week, the Patriots played a team that had recently lost at home to the Jaguars and they got into a dogfight, eventually winning by a field goal. This week, the Patriots once again get a team that just lost to the Jaguars as they face the Browns. Will this also be a close game? Well, it could be. The Patriots haven’t been winning pretty very often this season. Just two of their wins have come by more than 10 points and just three came by more than a touchdown. Considering this line is 10, that’s very relevant. One of their games which they won by more than a touchdown was a ten point home win over Miami that was much closer than the final score.

It’s true the Patriots’ offense is a lot better now than it was at the start of the season. Tom Brady is playing better and he has most of his weapons back, with Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola, and Shane Vereen all healthy. However, now their defense has become a problem, as season ending injuries to Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork have depleted their run defense as a lingering hip injury has sapped Aqib Talib’s effectiveness on the backend.

They’re moving the chains at a 77% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. The Browns, meanwhile, as moving the chains at a 69% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. They aren’t good, but I have this line calculated at 8, so as long as they have the experienced Jason Campbell under center instead of Alex Tanney, I can definitely see them keeping this close and forcing the Patriots into another close game. The Patriots generally haven’t done well as huge home favorites over the past few years, going 5-10 ATS as double digit home favorites since 2009.

However, on the other hand, the Patriots are in a great spot as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites, going to Miami next week. They have absolutely no distractions. Teams are 92-57 ATS in that spot since 2002. Last week, it was the Texans who were in a good spot, a big part of the reason why that game was close. I actually think the Patriots are the right side here because of that trend. I’m not confident at all in laying double digits with them though.

New England Patriots 27 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: New England -10

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Browns, Uncategorized

Last week: 23 (-4)

Record: 4-7

At one point, the Browns were 4-1 when Brandon Weeden didn’t start. Now they are 1-7 when Brian Hoyer doesn’t start and look who is going to start the Browns’ next game for them. It’s Brandon Weeden, with Jason Campbell nursing a concussion. The Browns should beat the Jaguars, but you can’t take any win for granted with Weeden under center. Weeden has been a special kind of terrible this season, completing 51.5% of his passes for 6.00 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. If the Browns don’t win this week, I don’t know when else they’d win down the stretch as their remaining 4 opponents after Jacksonville are a combined 24-19 and 3 of those 4 games are on the road. Of course, it’s probably beneficial for the Browns to lose out to give themselves the best chance at a real quarterback. The one positive of this season was the Trent Richardson trade. Now if a non-quarterback needy team like Atlanta ends up picking #1, the Browns would have the assets necessary to move up.

Week 12 Studs

WR Josh Gordon

LT Joe Thomas

Week 12 Duds

QB Brandon Weeden

WR Greg Little

TE Jordan Cameron

MLB Tank Carder

FS Tashaun Gipson

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