Browns

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Browns, Packers, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (3-3) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)

The Packers are in a great situational trend spot this week, as non-divisional home favorites here against Cleveland before being divisional road favorites in Minnesota next week. Teams are 47-22 ATS in that spot since 2008. They have no distractions on the schedule and can be completely focused for an obviously inferior opponent. However, this line might be a little bit too here at -10.

The Packers are getting destroyed with injuries. Casey Hayward will make his season debut this week, which is a positive and Morgan Burnett seems to be fine in a few starts back from injury, but that’s about where the positives stop. Middle linebacker Brad Jones is probably out this week. Clay Matthews is out indefinitely and Nick Perry, who was having a great game picking up Matthews’ slack last week, is now also out indefinitely, which leaves them with a converted defensive lineman, a 6th round pick rookie, and an undrafted rookie at rush linebacker.

Offensively, tackles Bryan Bulaga and Derek Sherrod remain out with injuries. Bulaga is out for the season and Sherrod probably won’t play at all this season either. Eddie Lacy is back, but talented slot receiver Randall Cobb was put on short-term injured reserve and James Jones suffered an injury of his own. He’ll probably play, but he could easily be limited. This isn’t a new thing for the Packers. In 2012, they were dead last in adjusted games lost and in 2010, when they won the Super Bowl, they were 30th.

The Browns, meanwhile, are obviously incompetent offensively with Brandon Weeden, but they have a very strong defense, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 72%, as opposed to 71% for their offense. They generally don’t get blown out, with 19 losses by more than a touchdown since the start of the 2010 season. That sounds like a lot, but consider they’ve lost 37 games total since the start of the 2010 season. More than half of their losses have come by a touchdown or less and only 12 have come by more than 10 points.

Of course, they played the Lions close last week and still lost by 14 because of a ridiculous pick six by Brandon Weeden. I wouldn’t be shocked if something like that happened again. The Packers are always especially dominant at home, going 26-3, outscoring opponents by 13.7 points per game and covering 21 out of 29 times. Aaron Rodgers is incredible at home and we could see the Packers blow out the Browns in a very Aaron Rodgers led effort. I wish the line was lower, but the Packers should be the right side. They’re also my survivor pick this week.

Green Bay Packers 27 Cleveland Browns 10 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Green Bay -10

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Browns, Uncategorized

Last week: 22 (-2)

Record: 3-3

The Browns looked great offensively in the first half as it looked like the return of Josh Gordon was helping even Brandon Weeden look like a passable quarterback, giving him two dynamic passing game weapons with Jordan Cameron. The Browns led 17-7 at halftime, but didn’t score the rest of the way in a 31-17 home loss to the Lions. There wasn’t much Josh Gordon could do about what Weeden did in the 2nd half as he imploded, including a pick six on one of the worst throws you’ll ever see.

Week 6 Studs

LT Joe Thomas

C Alex Mack

Week 6 Duds

QB Brandon Weeden

TE Jordan Cameron

LOLB Paul Kruger

MLB D’Qwell Jackson

MLB Craig Robertson

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Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Browns, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (3-2)

I don’t know how this game can have a line. Calvin Johnson is a game time decision and yet this line has been at about -2.5 or -3 in favor of Detroit all week. The Lions’ offense looked miserable without Johnson last week, totaling just 286 yards and not scoring a touchdown until there were 2 minutes left in the game in a 22-9 loss to a Green Bay team with a vulnerable defense. It’s not just that Johnson is the best receiver in the NFL. It’s the Lions’ lack of wide receiver depth. With the exception of Ryan Broyles, who is still working his way back from injury, the Lions don’t have a single receiver who would be higher than 5th on the average depth chart. Johnson is as valuable as any non-quarterback can be to his team for that reason.

Even if we knew Johnson’s status, this isn’t a very easy game to predict, but Johnson’s health just makes things more complicated. The case for Cleveland is that, even if Johnson plays, he’ll have to face Joe Haden. Haden wouldn’t be able to cover Johnson if Johnson were healthy, but he’s not so even if he plays, he’ll have a shot. Haden has emerged as one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL this season (he’s always been good, but this has been his best year). Shadowing opponent’s #1 receivers, he’s allowed 18 catches for 169 yards on 38 attempts this season.

He was a big part of the reason why the Browns, in a similar situation as home dogs, beat the Bengals, who similarly have one dominant receiver and little else. Offensively, Brian Hoyer is out for the season for the Browns, but Brandon Weeden looked good in relief of him last week. Remember, he didn’t have Josh Gordon at his disposal when he started the year as the starter. Gordon has been dominant in his 3 games since returning from suspension, catching 18 passes for 303 yards and 2 touchdowns. With him and Jordan Cameron, Weeden has weapons to work with.

The case for Detroit, however, is that Detroit is a legitimate playoff team who should be able to bounce back off of a road loss in a tough environment and beat an inferior opponent. Teams tend to cover at a higher rate in their 2nd road game than their first because it gives them an opportunity to get used to being away from home. It’s also very possible that, even at less than 100%, Haden can’t cover Johnson. He’s that good. And as for Weeden, well maybe he’s still just Brandon Weeden and his strong half in relief of Hoyer last week was a fluke against a banged up Buffalo defense. One trend also supports the Lions, as home dogs are 52-74 ATS before being double digit dogs on the road. The Browns travel to Green Bay next week and might not be as focused as they need to be in order to pull an upset as a result. I’m definitely not confident either way, but I like the Lions right now.

Detroit Lions 17 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Detroit -3

Confidence: None

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Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Browns, Uncategorized

Last week: 24 (+2)

Record: 3-2

Poor Browns. I really feel bad for them. They had a good quarterback for 3 games. But the dream is over. It’s time to wake up. Brandon Weeden is your quarterback again. Brian Hoyer won’t be back until 2014 at the earlier. They’d be a lot higher on here if it wasn’t for the Hoyer injury, but I don’t see any way that Weeden, as good as he looked in a half against a banged up Buffalo secondary, gets this team into the playoffs, even with a solid supporting cast.

Week 5 Studs

QB Brandon Weeden

RE Desmond Bryant

Week 5 Duds

RG Shawn Lauvao

TE Gary Barnidge

MLB D’Qwell Jackson

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Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Browns, Uncategorized

Last week: 29 (+5)

Record: 2-2

The Browns have somehow vaulted to the top of the AFC North two weeks after losing Brandon Weeden to injury and trading Trent Richardson to the Colts. While it’s not a surprise that they wouldn’t miss Brandon Weeden that much, I don’t think anyone was expecting Brian Hoyer to play well enough to mask the loss of Trent Richardson. After 33 first downs to 13 punts in the first 2 games of the season, the Browns have 41 first downs to 10 punts in the past 2 games, while turning the ball over 5 times (included failed 4th downs) to 7 times in the first 2 games. Hoyer’s performance against the Vikings could have been seen as a fluke, but after they knocked off the Bengals last week, it’s time to believe in Brian Hoyer a little bit. He’s not great, but he’s the best quarterback the Browns have had in 5 years. This has allowed their defense to shine.

Week 5 Studs

RT Mitchell Schwartz

Week 5 Duds

LG John Greco

ROLB Barkevious Mingo

MLB Craig Robertson

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Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bills, Browns, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)

The Browns have somehow vaulted to the top of the AFC North two weeks after losing Brandon Weeden to injury and trading Trent Richardson to the Colts. While it’s not a surprise that they wouldn’t miss Brandon Weeden that much, I don’t think anyone was expecting Brian Hoyer to play well enough to mask the loss of Trent Richardson. After 33 first downs to 13 punts in the first 2 games of the season, the Browns have 41 first downs to 10 punts in the past 2 games, while turning the ball over 5 times (included failed 4th downs) to 7 times in the first 2 games. Hoyer’s performance against the Vikings could have been seen as a fluke, but after they knocked off the Bengals last week, it’s time to believe in Brian Hoyer a little bit. He’s not great, but he’s the best quarterback the Browns have had in 5 years.

This has allowed their defense to shine. They don’t have a perfect defense by any means and they have holes in their secondary, but they have one of the better front 7s in the NFL with guys like Desmond Bryant, Phil Taylor, John Hughes, Jabaal Sheard, D’Qwell Jackson, and Paul Kruger. Meanwhile, Joe Haden has done an excellent job in the secondary, allowing 15 completions on 32 attempts for 130 yards while shadowing opponent’s #1 receivers, including guys like Mike Wallace and AJ Green. They have allowed opponents to convert 70% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent set of first downs.

The Bills, meanwhile, are also playing excellent defense, allowing opponents to convert 69% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent set of first downs. Mike Pettine has done an excellent job in his first year as defensive coordinator and their front 7 is playing very well, with guys like Marcell Dareus, Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, and early Defensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner Kiko Alonso. Their secondary has problems, mostly thanks to injuries, but they have, at least, a comparable defense to Cleveland.

This should be a defensive matchup, especially on a short week. Both teams have inexperienced quarterbacks and stronger defenses than offenses. The under usually covers on Thursday Night (76-59 since 1989). I’m not going to put anything on that because I hate betting over/under, especially after last week, a defensive matchup that somehow went over the total because of return touchdowns and garbage time scores. However, this should be a low scoring game.

The home team also usually covers on Thursday Night Football, because, on a short week, you need all the time you can get to prepare and having to travel puts you at a disadvantage. The home team is especially advantaged when they are favored and in a non-divisional matchup. It makes sense that a better team would be more prepared for a short week, so home dogs don’t cover nearly as often as home favorites, but these two teams are very evenly matched so that’s not a factor.

The fact that these are non-divisional opponents is relevant because that means they are relatively unfamiliar with each other, especially in their first season with new coaching staffs. If they were divisional opponents, it would nullify Cleveland’s advantage at home, but that’s not the case. They still have an advantage and non-divisional home favorites are 29-12 ATS on Thursday Night. I’d be much more confident with Cleveland at -3 than at -4, but the Browns should still be the right side.

Cleveland Browns 16 Buffalo Bills 9

Pick against spread: Cleveland -4

Confidence: Medium

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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-2)

The Browns won last week in Minnesota, but they will find live a lot tougher this week against the Bengals. For one, they probably won’t be as successful if they try trick play again, like they did last week, when their punter threw an 11-yard touchdown and a special teamer had a 34 yard run. Take away that 34 yard run and a 22 yard run by Josh Gordon, they had just 47 rushing yards on 15 carries in their first week without Trent Richardson and that was against the Vikings. The Bengals run defense is much tougher and will make life very hard for the trio of Willis McGahee, Bobby Rainer, and Chris Ogbonnaya.

That’s going to make live tougher for Brian Hoyer, who was going to find live harder anyway against a Cincinnati pass defense that is much better than Minnesota’s. Hoyer had a solid week last week, but he also completed just 55.6% of his passes, averaged just 5.9 yards per attempt and threw 3 interceptions so he’s hardly the Browns’ savior. Throughout his career, he’s completed just 58.0% of his passes for an average of 6.3 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. He’ll be overmatched against the Bengals, even with Leon Hall and Reggie Nelson expected out for the Bengals. Their front 7, particularly their defensive line, will help mask their absence.

The Bengals generally play well against bad teams in the Andy Dalton era, as they had an 18-4 record in 2011 and 2012 combined against non-playoff teams. They’re even better this year, coming off a statement win over the Packers, a likely playoff team. They were 1-11 against such teams in 2011 and 2012, but they beat the Packers despite losing the turnover battle by 2. Teams win just 17.9% of the time when losing the turnover battle by 2 historically.

I still think Andy Dalton is a limiting factor on this team, but his previous 1-11 record in 2011 and 2012 against eventual playoff teams doesn’t seem relevant at this point. His supporting cast is definitely good enough to mask his flaws, especially their defense. His supporting cast will make life easy for him this week against a weaker opponent. The Bengals should be able to establish their game plan easily against the Browns, as they usually do against weak opponents. This would be a higher confidence pick if the line were below the key numbers of 3 and 4, but I still feel pretty confident the Bengals get a big win here.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Browns, Uncategorized

Last week: 30 (+1)

Poor Browns. They can’t even tank right. Brian Hoyer became the first quarterback to throw for 3 touchdowns in a game for the Browns since Brady Quinn in 2009, while punter Shane Lanning also threw a touchdown, giving him as many as Brandon Weeden has this season. The presence of Josh Gordon clearly helped and it’ll be very interesting to see if they’re really trying to shop him like reports have said. Teams like the Patriots, 49ers, and Ravens should send the Browns a 3rd rounder for him in a heartbeat.

Week 3 Studs

LG John Greco

RG Oniel Cousins

RE John Hughes

ROLB Jabaal Sheard

SS TJ Ward

Week 3 Duds

MLB Craig Robertson

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Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Browns, Uncategorized

Last week: 30

The Browns’ offensive line was supposed to be one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, but the right side has gotten completely blown up through the first 2 games. Right guard Oneil Cousins has been as bad as a player can possibly be in 2 starts as an injury fill in, while right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, coming off a very strong rookie year, has already given up as many sacks in 2 games as he did all last season. The good news is that Shawn Lauvao is expected to return from injury this week. Lauvao isn’t very good and would have been the weak link on this line regardless, but he’ll be miles better than Cousins. Hopefully his return can spur a turnaround for Schwartz. The Browns also add Josh Gordon back from suspension, who gives them a much needed weapon on the outside if he can come back and play at the level he’s capable of. Both of those returns are just in time for a winnable game at 0-2 Minnesota.

Week 2 Studs

ROLB Jabaal Sheard

Week 2 Duds

RT Mitchell Schwartz

RG Oniel Cousins

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Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Browns, Uncategorized, Vikings

Cleveland Browns (0-2) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2)

This line has had tremendous line movement this week, going from -3.5 at the beginning of the week to -7 now. That’s significant as 23% of NFL games are decided by between 4-7 points. Why such a big shift? Well, Brandon Weeden has been ruled out with injury and Trent Richardson has been traded. However, I’m not sure losing Weeden is such a big deal. He’s completed just 54.7% of his passes for an average of 6.0 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions while leading the Browns to a grand total of 16 points through 2 games.

Brian Hoyer could completely bomb, but he also completed 56.6% of his passes for an average of 6.2 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions last season against Chicago and San Francisco, two of the better defenses in the NFL. I think it’s highly unlikely he’s a significant downgrade from Weeden. If anything, he could be better with Josh Gordon returning from suspension. Gordon was fantastic last season considering his quarterback situation, that he was rookie, and that he hadn’t really played football in 2 years. He caught 50 passes for 805 yards and 5 touchdowns on 89 targets and 506 routes run (1.58 yards per route run). Browns quarterbacks had a 90.9 QB rating when throwing to him, over 18 points better than their overall QB rating.

Richardson’s loss is bigger. He’s been one of the most elusive backs in the NFL over his first two years in the league in terms of breaking tackles and picking up yards after first contact, but from a production standpoint, his 3.5 career YPC isn’t going to be that hard to replace, especially if they get better offensive line play. Billed as one of the sneaky good offensive lines in the NFL coming in the season, the Browns’ offensive line has definitely struggled thus far this season, but they will have all 5 starters healthy this week for the first time all season.

There’s really no reason why the Vikings should be favored by a whole touchdown over them, but the public is so scared off of them. That’s giving us line value. The Vikings should not really be favored by a whole touchdown over anyone, except probably Jacksonville. They are one of eight 0-2 teams, but their problems go deeper than that. Their week 1 loss by 10 points was just one of 4 games decided by more than a touchdown that week, one of 10 decided by more than a touchdown so far this season. They could have lost by a lot more considering they were outgained 28 to 16 in first downs and 467 to 330 in total yards. Last week, they only lost by one, but they did so despite winning the turnover battle, which only happens about 21% of the time. They can rely on that going forward.

Overall on the season, they are converting just 68.6% of 1st and 10s for a subsequent set of downs, as opposed to 78.8% for their opponents, a differential that is 28th in the NFL ahead of only these Browns (who aren’t far behind them at 29th), Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville. I had them winning just 5 games at the beginning of the season and they have shown me no reason to change that prediction. Given that, they do not deserve to be favored by a touchdown here.

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week1 (they didn’t cover), but there was at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse. The Vikings may or may not finish with that poor of a record, but that trend is still relevant to this game.

They’re also in a rough situation playing their home opener during week 3. Since 1989, teams that have played their week 3 game at home after starting the season with back to back road games are just 20-40 ATS. Starting the year on the road like that takes so much out of you and they could also coast now that they’re at home, especially since they have an easier opponent. They could have a very hard time focusing at home for the lowly non-conference Browns after playing tough games in Detroit and Chicago, both divisional foes. After this game, they play in London against the Steelers. They could be looking forward to that.

There is also another trend that favors the Browns. They are road dogs after a road loss, a situation teams are 88-52 ATS since 2008 and have historically covered in about 65% of the time, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. I like Cleveland a good deal to cover this week, especially with all of the close games that have happened early on this season. Their defense should make this one tight and I really don’t trust Christian Ponder to cover this big of a spread.

Minnesota Vikings 17 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7

Confidence: High

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