Browns

Defensive Scheme Changes: Falcons, Saints, Browns, Eagles, Cowboys

stevenlourie Browns, Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons, News, Saints

4-3 to 3-4

Atlanta Falcons

This one isn’t confirmed, but Falcons’ defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is a 3-4 guy. He did a great job in his first season with the Falcons, coaching them to a top-5 scoring defense, despite having to run a 4-3, because he wisely realized they didn’t have the personnel for an immediate switch to a 3-4. Still, you have to figure he’s going to want to go to a 3-4 eventually and going into his 2nd year with the team, there are rumors, though nothing confirmed, that he may be taking them to a 3-4 base this season. They already ran a lot of 3-3 looks last year, as they frequently used sub packages.

If there were to go to a 3 man line full time in 2013, it would resemble the one from their 3-3 front. Jonathan Babineaux would be a 3-4 defensive end and Peria Jerry, Corey Peters, or Vance Walker could play the other 3-4 end spot, though Peters was terrible last year and Walker is a free agent. Either way, they do need a true nose tackle, something this roster lacks. There’s a reason they ranked 29th against the run in 2013. If he’s even re-signed, Walker is their biggest tackle on the roster at about 305, which isn’t going to cut it.

Going to the linebacking corps, defensive ends John Abraham and Kroy Biermann would move to the 3-4 outside linebacker spot. Whether or not they will fit the new position remains to be seen, but either way, they need help at the position. Abraham turns 35 in May, while Biermann is a marginal and inconsistent starter, and their depth is suspect at best. Outside linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Stephen Nicholas would move inside to middle linebacker, though Nicholas should just be a base package run stuffer and someone else should come in for him in sub packages. Akeem Dent is a candidate, but it also may be someone not currently on their roster.

New Orleans Saints

After ranking among the worst in the NFL in every single defensive category, including 31st in opponent’s scoring, the Saints have rightfully fired defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. They apparently want to do anything they can to change things up as they are reportedly interested in hiring a defensive coordinator with a 3-4 background to run that scheme in New Orleans. As would have been the case if they had stayed in a 4-3, they still need more talent upfront.

Cameron Jordan might benefit the most from the scheme change, as the collegiate 3-4 end had been struggling as a 4-3 end in the NFL. Opposite him, however, they have nothing and someone like Sheldon Richardson will be an option at 15th overall in the 2013 NFL Draft. At nose tackle, expect Brodrick Bunkley and Akiem Hicks to hold down the fort. Both could also play end as well, I suppose, but that will still be a need.

Like 3-4 defensive end, rush linebacker is now a huge need. Will Smith will almost definitely be cut. Not only is he overpaid and not very good anymore, but he’s a terrible fit for a 3-4. That leaves the Saints with nickel rushers Martez Wilson and Junior Galette at the position. They’ll bring someone else in. Someone like Dion Jordan or Ezekiel Ansah will also be an option at 15th overall. Expect them to take a 3-4 defensive end and outside linebacker, in either order, with their first 2 picks of the 2013 NFL Draft. Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne, meanwhile, are obvious fits at middle linebacker and should be able to have bounce back years in the new scheme. Jonathan Vilma probably would have been cut either way, but this pretty much seals the deal.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns made the opposite transition a few years ago, switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3 after the 2010 season, with Pat Shurmur coming in. That should help ease the transition. However, they do have a bunch of new front 7 players. Jabaal Sheard is their best pass rusher and I don’t think he’ll have much of an issue moving from 4-3 end to 3-4 outside linebacker. They’ll need a complement for him, opposite him, but they would have needed another pass rusher regardless. Expect them to target rush linebackers at #6 overall.

The reason they need another pass rush is because Juqua Parker is a 35 year old free agent this off-season. He split snaps opposite Sheard last year with Frostee Rucker and frankly they weren’t very good either. Rucker, however, may be a better fit as a 3-4 end. Between him, Billy Winn, John Hughes, Phil Taylor, and Ahytba Rubin, they should be set on the defensive line. That’s five guys who can play significant snaps, including two, Rubin and Taylor, who have the size to play on the nose.

At inside linebacker, D’Qwell Jackson will remain, as he did the last time they used a 3-4. Either Craig Robertson, Kaluka Maiava, or James-Michael Johnson will play next to him. Chris Gocong is another candidate, provided he isn’t cut, owed 4.45 million in 2013, coming off an Achilles tear that ended his 2012 season. Rush linebacker is really their only need area up front, even for depth purposes. They look pretty set at all other positions, but rush linebacker is probably the most important one.

Philadelphia Eagles

Like the Saints, the Eagles have not formally hired a defensive coordinator, but new Head Coach Chip Kelly is a believer in the 3-4 scheme and they are expected to hire a 3-4 defensive coordinator, likely San Francisco defensive backs coach Ed Donatell. They will need to wait until after the Super Bowl to do so, but that’s probably the reason why they have yet to hire anyone.

The scheme change might be best for Fletcher Cox and Cullen Jenkins, who will both move both from defensive tackle to defensive end. Both are natural fits for the position and Jenkins has some experience playing there from his days in Green Bay. Mike Patterson, Cedric Thornton, and Derek Landri will provide solid depth, though the latter is a free agent this off-season. Antonio Dixon has to be thrilled about the position change as well. He’s a talented player in the right scheme, but he was lost in Philadelphia’s wide nine last year, which is why he was cut and not brought back until Jim Washburn was fired and the Eagles scrapped the wide nine. He looks like a natural fit at 3-4 nose tackle, but they’ll have to bring in competition.

The biggest risk is changing schemes for them is that their edge rushers might not fit. Brandon Graham was one of the most efficient pass rushers in the NFL last year and dominated once given a chance to start down the stretch last year. Trent Cole, meanwhile, is coming off a down year, but in the 6 years prior, he was one of the most consistently excellent defensive ends in the NFL. It might not be a good idea to mess with success. One thing the Eagles do have, however, is plenty of depth at rush linebacker. Vinny Curry was a 2nd round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft and Phillip Hunt and Darryl Tapp have played well in limited action, though the latter is a free agent this off-season.

Their expected middle linebackers are DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks. Ryans stays in his 2012 spot in the middle, while Kendricks moves from the outside. Those two probably had different reactions to finding out they’d be changing schemes. Ryans was nowhere near his normal self in Houston in a 3-4 in 2011, which is why he got traded to the Eagles. Kendricks, meanwhile, struggled as a rookie, but perhaps a change to a 3-4 will get him turned around. He played in a 3-4 in college, playing both inside and outside. The Eagles don’t have any major needs in the front 7, with the exception of competition for Dixon, but they didn’t really have any to begin with.
3-4 to 4-3

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are making the opposite move this off-season, going from years of a 3-4 back to a 4-3. While I don’t understand hiring Monte Kiffin if he’s not going to run his signature Tampa 2 coverage scheme, I like the move to a 4-3 for the Cowboys. All 3 of their talented non-rush linebackers, Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, and Dan Connor, will be able to be on the field at the same time, while Lee and Carter will be able to play in space more often. Jay Ratliff is a better fit in a 4-3 than a 3-4 on the nose, though after his recent arrest, it’s questionable if he’ll be brought back next season. Jason Hatcher is tentatively expected to play defensive tackle next to him, but he is a bit of a tweener in a 4-3.

DeMarcus Ware will move to 4-3 defensive end, which is not as risky as moving an edge rusher from a 3-4 to a 4-3 because most edge rushers played in a 4-3 in college, as Ware did. I have no doubt he’ll be able to get to the quarterback regardless of the scheme. Their biggest issue is at defensive end opposite Ware. Anthony Spencer is not expected to be retained as a free agent because the Cowboys don’t have a lot of cap space. Fellow free agent Victor Butler is an option, as he’s been solid in limited action throughout his career. They also have Tyrone Crawford, a 2012 3rd round pick who might be a better fit in a 4-3 than a 3-4. Hatcher is also an option, but that would leave them with just Marcus Spears, Sean Lissemore, and Jay Ratliff inside, assuming the latter is even retained. They could add an end through the draft at some point.

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Cleveland Browns 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Browns

The Browns have played in just 1 playoff game since 1994 (they were deactivated for 3 years in that stretch, but still). Lack of continuity continues to be an issue for them and it won’t get any better for them next season. They have a new owner who has brought in a new GM and front office, which will bring in a new Head Coach once again. That Head Coach is expected to be Chip Kelly, who is expected to bring in yet another new quarterback.

The good news for the Browns: The had just 4 losses by more than 10, only 3 if you don’t count a meaningless week 17 game in which 3rd stringer Thad Lewis had to start. Chip Kelly has the potential to be the best coach they’ve had since being reactivated. If Kelly and whatever new quarterback they bring in can get anything out of a young, but promising offensive group of talent, they have a talented enough defense to compete in an AFC North that is in flux right now.

Defensive End

The Browns’ defense is better than the Browns’ offense, but they’ll probably focus more on the defense that the offense this season. They have a lot of young talent on offense that they need to wait on to develop. Brandon Weeden, Trent Richardson, Mitchell Schwartz, Travis Benjamin, and Josh Gordon were all drafted this year. Jason Pinkston, Greg Little, Owen Marecic, and Jordan Cameron were drafted in 2011. All of those guys were drafted in the first 4 rounds. They need to wait on these guys.

On defense, they ranked 26th in pass rush efficiency. Jabaal Sheard had a major sophomore slump this year after having a great rookie year in 2011. I still believe in the 2011 2nd round pick’s long term potential, but they need someone opposite him regardless. Frostee Rucker and Juqua Parker split snaps opposite him. Parker is a free agent heading into his age 35 season this offseason, while Rucker just isn’t that good.

Outside Linebacker

The Browns really struggled for consistency at outside linebacker this season as 6 different guys made starts and none of them really impressed. The Browns will strongly consider Manti Te’o at #6 overall. He would probably play middle linebacker and move D’Qwell Jackson, coming off a down year, back to his natural outside linebacker spot.

Cornerback

Sheldon Brown actually had a very good year opposite Joe Haden this season, but he’s a free agent heading into his age 34 season this offseason. Regardless of whether or not he’s brought back, they’ll need another cornerback to go with Joe Haden and up and down 2011 6th round pick Buster Skrine because Brown can’t be trusted in either the long term or short term.

Guard

Cleveland had the 3rd ranked offensive line in terms of pass block efficiency, but right guard Shawn Lauvao was the weak link and needs to be replaced. The 2010 3rd round pick has started 32 games in the last 2 seasons, but he really hasn’t been impressive.

Wide Receiver

The Browns’ top three wide receivers in terms of snaps played last season were all either in their 1st or 2nd year in the league. They predictably struggled, but there’s still time for them to turn it around. However, they could use a veteran in the mix. Mohamed Massaquoi, the “veteran” of the group, is a free agent, while 2011 2nd round pick Greg Little still doesn’t seem to be able to shake his issues with drops.

Tight End

Ben Watson is a free agent and they seem ready to give 2011 4th round pick Jordan Cameron a chance to be the starting tight end. They could use some veteran insurance in case he falters.

Quarterback

Will it be another new quarterback in 2013 for the Browns? Brandon Weeden was a 1st round pick just last year, but he struggled as a rookie and he’s already heading into his age 30 season. Everyone who drafted him has been fired with new ownership coming in and he was reportedly being given an audition for the 2013 job down the stretch. With Chip Kelly expected to be coming in, Weeden may be traded as he’d fit like a square peg in a round hole in Kelly’s system. Bringing in a veteran like Michael Vick, a dual threat quarterback, seems like something they’ll do.

Kicker

Phil Dawson is one of the best kickers in the league, but he’s a free agent once again and new CBA rules say he can’t be franchised again unless the Browns want to pay him the quarterback franchise tag price (around 15 million, not happening). If he can’t be re-signed, he’ll have to be replaced.

Punter

The Browns ranked 30th in the league in net punting average. Reggie Hodges is a free agent and they need to upgrade him.

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Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Browns, Steelers

Cleveland Browns (5-10) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8)

Aside from this being a divisional matchup, this is a completely meaningless game for these two teams. Both are out of the playoffs. I have a rule against making significant plays on completely meaningless games. If the teams might not care about a game, I shouldn’t either. There’s just no way to predict what kind of effort either side is going to give.

The Browns do have a powerful trend on their side as they are road dogs off a road loss. Teams are 86-51 ATS in this spot since 2008. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh could be completely flat after getting eliminated from the playoffs. The Browns also have a lack of losses by more than 10 points over the past 3 years. As bad as they’ve been, they tend to play teams close. They have just 8 of those losses in the last 3 seasons, including three this year. That’s important because this is a 10 point line. The Steelers, meanwhile, are 4-10 ATS as double digit favorites in the last 4 seasons.

However, I just can’t take the Browns and 3rd stringer Thaddeus Lewis in his first NFL start. He was recently activated off the practice squad. Normally betting on 3rd stringers is a very bad idea, but Steelers’ defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is 17-2 SU against rookie quarterbacks. Lewis isn’t technically a rookie, but he’s never thrown a pass in a regular season game. He’ll also be without Trent Richardson.

I can see this game starting out close, maybe 3-3 early, while I’m sitting there thinking “I should have blindly followed the road dog off a road loss trend,” but then it becomes a blowout in the 2nd half as Lewis throws at least one pick six to a Pittsburgh defender before it eventually ends with Pittsburgh up by at least two touchdowns. I don’t like either side, but I’d take the Steelers if I had to.

Public lean: ?

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Cleveland Browns 9

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -10 (-110) 1 unit

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Cleveland Browns: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 26 (+0)

Record: 5-10

Net points per drive: -0.21 (22nd)

DVOA: -12.8% (23rd)

Weighted DVOA: -8.2% (22nd)

Studs

SS Eric Hagg: Did not allow a catch on 3 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle

Duds

QB Colt McCoy: 9 of 17 for 79 yards and a touchdown, 1 hit as thrown, 68.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 6 of 21 drop backs (4 sacks, 0 of 2, 1 hit as thrown)

WR Josh Gordon: Caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 2 attempts on 47 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch

CB Buster Skrine: 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, allowed 7 catches for 71 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts, 2 penalties

LOLB Craig Robertson: 12 solo tackles, 3 assists, 3 stops, allowed 4 catches for 68 yards on 5 attempts

CB Sheldon Brown: Allowed 4 catches for 50 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 attempts, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles

RE Frostee Rucker: Did not record a pressure on 22 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

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Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Broncos, Browns

Cleveland Browns (5-9) at Denver Broncos (11-3)

Before last week, the Browns hadn’t really gotten blown out all year. They had been competitive in every other game. They only have 3 other losses by more than a touchdown. One of those, a 14 point loss in New York against the Giants, was a lot closer than the final score as the Browns actually led 14-0 early. In another one, a 25-15 loss against the Ravens, they actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, but they had 5 field goals to 3 touchdowns and a field goal for the Ravens. Only a 10 point loss to the Bills week 3 was a game they weren’t really competitive in before last week.

I don’t know what happened last week, but maybe they just were completely unprepared for Kirk Cousins and overlooking him, expecting an easy 4th win in a row with Robert Griffin hurt, and they were completely caught off guard. This is still a team that plays a lot of close games. Their points differential is just -30 at 5-9 and they rank 20th in net points per drive at -0.11. Last year, they lost just 3 of their 12 games by more than 11 points and in 2010, they had just 2 such losses. The Browns are 5-2 ATS as double digit dogs since 2010, as they’ve had the most losses by a touchdown or less in the NFL over that time period. They’re actually 8-5-1 ATS on the season this year.

However, that doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t get blown out by the Broncos, who have 6 wins this year by 12 or more, which is where this line is at. As a result, they rank 5th in net points per drive at 0.67. As a result of this, we’re not actually getting much line value with the Browns, even though they have played a lot of close games. If we take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game) and add 2.5 for home field, we get that Denver should be favored by 11, which isn’t much of a difference. DVOA somewhat reinforces this as the Broncos rank 3rd in both regular and weighted, while the Browns rank 25th in regular, though 19th in weighted.

On top of that, the Broncos are touchdown plus favorites before being touchdown plus favorites when their opponent will next be touchdown plus dogs. Teams are 100-59 ATS in this spot since 1989, though just 16-13 ATS when both teams have a divisional game next. That trend overall is actually just 34-27 ATS since 2002. I am also worried about the loss of TJ Ward on Cleveland’s defense, but if I had to pick a side, I’d go with Cleveland to play another close game. There might also be some backdoor cover potential here. It’s not a significant play though.

Public lean: Denver (50% range)

Sharps lean: CLE 19 DEN 2

Final thoughts: The sharps love the Browns more than anyone this week. We also have reverse line action. I’m boosting this to 3 units.

Denver Broncos 24 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against spread: Cleveland +11 (-110) 3 units

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Cleveland Browns: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 26 (+0)

Record: 5-9

Net points per drive: -0.11 (20th)

DVOA: -12.4% (25th)

Weighted DVOA: -5.5% (19th)

That 17 point loss to the Redskins was actually the first time this season the Browns had been blown out. Their previous biggest loss was 14 and their biggest win (23) is still bigger than their biggest loss. Even that 14 point loss wasn’t as bad as the final score looked as they led 14-0 early. They’ve been competitive every week thanks to a solid defense and it’s possible they just overlooked Kirk Cousins and were unprepared for him, after he had been announced as the starter on Saturday. With games in Denver and Pittsburgh left on the schedule, I think they’re done winning games for this season, but they can certainly be competitive in both and if they can ever figure out their offense, they have the defense to compete for a playoff spot.

Studs

LT Joe Thomas: Did not allow a pressure on 39 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

SS TJ Ward: 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 1 catch for 3 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception

Duds

QB Brandon Weeden: 21 of 35 for 244 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, 1 drop, 1 throw away, 3 batted passes, 69.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 11 of 38 drop backs (2 sacks, 1 scramble, 5 of 8, 1 drop, 1 throw away)

C Alex Mack: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 29 yards on 7 attempts, 1 penalty

WR Josh Gordon: Allowed 3 catches for 27 yards on 8 attempts on 39 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

TE: Ben Watson: Allowed 2 catches for 12 yards on 3 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch

CB Sheldon Brown: Allowed 8 catches for 143 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

MLB D’Qwell Jackson: 6 solo tackles, 4 assists, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 5 catches for 58 yards on 5 attempts

DT Ahytba Rubin: Did not record a pressure on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

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Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Browns, Commanders

Washington Redskins (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (5-8)

Robert Griffin is expected to be a true game time decision for this one and we won’t know for sure about his status until tomorrow morning. Lines are slowly starting to trickle in spite of this and if you had to ask me, I’d said it’s more likely than not that Robert Griffin plays. Normally, when a quarterback is a game time decision, he plays.

It’s only when a quarterback is ruled out in the week prior that he doesn’t play and this is such a huge game for the Redskins if they want to make the playoffs, I can’t see him sitting out. The fact that lines are already starting to trickle in is a good sign, especially since Washington is favored by 1 (they were favored by 2.5 a week ago). That suggests that the odds makers are fairly sure Griffin will play.

I’m going to make this pick as if I’m fairly sure Griffin will play, for that reason. We are getting some line value with the Browns, who are better than their 5-8 record would suggest. They are just -13 in points differential and they rank 16th in net points per drive at -0.03. The Redskins, meanwhile, rank 15th in net points per drive at -0.02. These teams are basically equal and if you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Cleveland should be favored by those 2.5 points.

However, that doesn’t hold up to DVOA. Washington ranks 10th in DVOA, which takes things into account things like strength of schedule, and 11th in weighted DVOA. Cleveland, meanwhile, ranks 25th in regular and 20th in weighted DVOA. Cleveland is also in a bad spot as home dogs off a win as home favorites, a situation teams are 52-72 ATS in since 1989, the only trend that is relevant in this one.

Furthermore, I just don’t want to bet against Griffin right now and I don’t think the Browns are ready to win straight up against a team like the Redskins yet. They’ve hung with some good teams, but they need to win straight up to cover here. It’s only a small play because of the uncertainty of Griffin and it would rank near the bottom in any confidence pools, but the Redskins are the pick.

Public lean: ?

Final update: Griffin was surprisingly ruled out today and Kirk Cousins will start tomorrow. This line is now Cleveland -2. I like betting on good teams starting backup quarterbacks as they tend to give 110% to compensate and opponents tend to overlook them. Remember the Steelers beating the Ravens with Charlie Batch?

The Browns also have bigger things to worry about as they have trips to Denver and Pittsburgh next on the agenda. Favorites are 35-72 ATS since 2008 before being touchdown dogs and 7-20 ATS before being touchdown dogs in two straight. Teams are also 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons and the Redskins go to Philadelphia next week, when they should have Griffin back. When the opponent will next be dogs, teams are 116-59 ATS in that spot since 2008.

It’d be a bigger play, but I feel like the 4.5 point line movement from last week (the Redskins were -2.5) is not enough to compensate for Griffin’s loss, especially considering the Browns looked pretty impressive last week, blowing out the Chiefs. Griffin might be the league’s most valuable player outside of Brady and Manning this year and the Redskins supporting cast isn’t very good. It’d be a big play at +4 or more, but not at +2. The Redskins should be the right side though.

Final update II: Now at +4, I like the Redskins a lot more.

Washington Redskins 20 Cleveland Browns 17 Upset Pick +180

Pick against spread: Washington +4 (-110) 3 units

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Cleveland Browns: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 25 (-1)

Record: 5-8

Net points per drive: -0.03 (16th)

DVOA: -10.3% (25th)

Weighted DVOA: -6.5% (20th)

Cleveland’s been better than their record all season and they’re finally catching up with 3 straight wins against the Charlie Batch led Steelers, the Raiders, and the Chiefs. However, the Redskins, the Broncos, and the Ben Roethlisberger led Steelers are different animals in their final 3 games so I think that 5th win will be their last.

Studs

RT Mitchell Schwartz: Did not allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on attempt

LG John Greco: Did not allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 26 yards on 6 attempts

LT Joe Thomas: Did not allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 13 yards on 5 attempts

CB Sheldon Brown: Did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, no tackles

DT Billy Winn: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 22 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

WR Travis Benjamin: 1 punt return for 91 yards and a touchdown, was not thrown to on 3 pass snaps

Duds

TE Jordan Cameron: Caught 1 pass for 10 yards on 1 attempt on 20 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

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Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Browns, Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) at Cleveland Browns (4-8)

One of the most powerful trends is known as the six and six trend. It says that teams who finish 6-10 or worse are 23-64 ATS against the spread since 2002 as favorites of 6 or more. That makes sense. Bad teams like that don’t deserve to be favorites of that much against anyone. The issue with it is a lot of the instances are situations where you don’t expect the team to be finish 6-10 or worse. For example, the Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland week 1 and failed to cover. They will be part of that six and six group when the season is over, but there was no way to know then that the Eagles would be this bad. Same thing with the Lions, who were 6 point favorites against the Rams week 1.

However, whenever you have a situation where a team that will almost definitely finish 6-10 or worse is favored by 6 or more, it’s an obvious fade situation. The Raiders were favored by 6 earlier this year against Jacksonville when they had a record of 1-4 and they won by just 3, failing to cover. Last week, the Jets, Bills, and Lions were all candidates and only the Bills covered. This week, the Browns are 4-8 and will almost definitely be 6-10 or worse at season’s end. Even if they win this game, they’ll be dogs in their final 3 games and will need to pull at least 2 upsets to finish 7-9, and they might not even win this game.

Speaking of the fact that the Browns will be dogs in their final 3 games, teams are 42-63 ATS as favorites of 6 or more before being dogs in their next 3+ games. That makes sense. Once again, as is the case with the six and six rule, bad teams should never be favored by 6 or more and teams that will be dogs in 3 straight are often bad teams.

We are getting line value with the Browns. Using the net points per drive method, this line should be Cleveland -11.5. Cleveland is 20th in net points per drive at -0.15, while Kansas City is dead last at -0.91. If you take the difference and multiply that by 11 (the amount of drives per game, on average) and then add 3 points for home field, you get that 11.5 number.

This is because the Browns have a much better points differential then their 4-8 record at -36. That’s a result of the fact that they really haven’t gotten blown out this season. Only 3 of their 8 losses have come by more than a touchdown and of those 2 losses, they were competitive in each. They lead the Giants 14-0 early, before losing by 14 and they actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, but had to settle for 5 field goals, while the Ravens had 3 touchdowns and a field goal in a 25-15 Ravens win.

However, they haven’t exactly been blowing teams out either. Of their 4 wins, only one came by more than 6 points and this line is 6.5. Almost all of their games have been close so this one should close as well, so I really like getting the points, even as bad as the Chiefs are, especially because of the six and six rule. That -11.5 line doesn’t make sense when you apply a human element to it, understand where it came from, and why it’s not appropriate in this situation. It also doesn’t hold up to DVOA, which is net points per drive based, but takes into account things like strength of schedule. The Chiefs are dead last in that as well, 31st in weighted, but the Browns rank 26th and 24th in weighted, which doesn’t hold up to their 20th place rank in net points per drive.

This would be a bigger play if I knew what to expect with the Chiefs. They won last week just one day after the Jovan Belcher murder/suicide as big dogs. However, there’s no guarantee that will continue this week now that they’ve had a week to sit back and reflect. These types of things tend to go differently depending on the team. The Colts won as big dogs in the week after Chuck Pagano left for treatment, but then got blown out the following week against the Jets, before then going on an impressive run.

The Redskins, meanwhile, lost as big favorites immediately after the death of Sean Taylor, before going on an impressive run and improbably making the playoffs. There’s no way to know how the Chiefs will react this week. They might continue on this run or they might have a huge letdown game like the Colts did. Under normal circumstances, this would be a 4 or 5 unit pick, but these aren’t normal circumstances. Even still, it’s a significant play on the Chiefs.

Public lean: Cleveland (60% range)

Sharps lean: CLE 26 KC 8

Final thoughts: One of two heavy sharps leans this week I’m going to totally disagree with. Sharps have been terrible in the last few weeks anyway.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Cleveland Browns 16 Upset Pick +245

Pick against spread: Kansas City +6.5 (-110) 3 units

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Cleveland Browns: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 24 (-1)

Record: 4-8

Net points per drive: -0.15 (20th)

DVOA: -13.6% (26th)

Weighted DVOA: -10.0% (24th)

Studs

LT Joe Thomas: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 38 pass block snaps

WR Josh Gordon: Caught 6 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts on 35 pass snaps, 5.7 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Sheldon Brown: Allowed 5 catches for 54 yards on 13 attempts, 3 pass deflection, 1 interception, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop

RE Juqua Parker: 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 stop

Duds

C Alex Mack: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for 25 yards on 8 attempts

FS Eric Hagg: Allowed 9 catches for 72 yards on 10 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

CB Buster Skrine: Allowed 6 catches for 119 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 attempts, 2 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LE Jabaal Sheard: 1 quarterback hurry on 50 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

DT Athyba Rubin: 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

P Reggie Hodges: 2 punts for 69 yards, 0 inside 20, 0 returns, 34.5 net yards per punt

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