Browns

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Browns, Raiders

Cleveland Browns (3-8) at Oakland Raiders (3-8)

The Raiders seem to have completely quit. They’ve lost 4 straight by a combined score of 169-79. Reports out of their practices aren’t pretty either as middle linebacker Rolando McClain, actually one of their better defensive players, has been suspended for 2 games for conduct detrimental to the team, reportedly that he yelled at 1st year Head Coach Dennis Allen. It was first reported that McClain had been waived as he posted on Facebook that he was no longer an Oakland Raider and that he was looking forward to playing for an “actual team,” but after the dust cleared it appears he is technically still on the roster.

I picked the Raiders to cover last week for a big play. It seemed reasonable. The Bengals were 3-9 ATS as touchdown favorites in the Marvin Lewis era and teams were 36-16 ATS since 2002 off back-to-back losses by 21 or more. Teams in that situation tend to be undervalued, embarrassed, and overlooked, but none of that matters if you’ve quit.

When the Raiders lost to the Bengals by 24, it was believe it or not just the 13th time since 1989 that a team had lost 3 straight by 21 or more. That’s how rarely teams get blown out by that much and how bad things have gotten in Oakland. For the record, teams off 3+ losses of 21 or more are 4-8 ATS, which makes sense since those seem to be teams who have quit. The rule of thumb, if a team has lost 2 straight by 21 or more, bet them, but if they don’t come through for you, definitely stay away from them in the next week.

The Browns, meanwhile, got a huge win last week against the Steelers, but they weren’t as impressive as the final score would suggest. They needed a fluky turnover total (8) by the Steelers, which was just the 13th time that’s happened since 1989, to even win by 6 against the Charlie Batch led Steelers who were in a bad spot sandwiched in between two huge games with the Ravens. That won’t happen again. Turnover differentials are incredibly inconsistent anyway.

That loss shifted this line 2.5 points from last week as it was a pick em and now Cleveland is favored by 2.5 on the road. However, that doesn’t mean the Browns are overrated or anything. They were underrated before last week. They haven’t gotten blown off the field by anyone this season and they have a very solid defense. Despite their record, they rank 22nd in net points per drive and 25th in DVOA and weighted DVOA. The Raiders, meanwhile, rank 31st in net points per drive, 31st in DVOA, and 32nd in weighted DVOA. The real line using the net points per drive method is Cleveland -5, so there’s still line value with the Browns in spite of the line movement.

That being said, it’d hard to take the Browns for a big play. They’re coming off such a huge win against the Steelers. Teams tend to struggle after beating the Steelers anyway, for some reasons, going 19-40 ATS in that situation since 2002. That’s not the case for any other team. You can only imagine how much bigger it is for the Browns, who had previously beaten the Steelers just twice in their last 23 matchups. They might be flat for a crappy Raiders team. However, the Raiders will definitely be flat since that seems to be their thing now. Besides, they may be looking forward to a Thursday Night game against Denver next week. It’s not a huge play at all, but Cleveland should be able to come into Oakland and beat a reeling Oakland team by at least 3.

Public lean: Cleveland (50% range)

Sharps lean: CLE 7 OAK 6

Final update: No surprise people are staying away from this game. The shitty Raiders or the Browns as road dogs (which they somehow are 6-1 ATS as since 2002)?

Cleveland Browns 24 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: Cleveland -2.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Cleveland Browns: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 24 (+4)

Record: 3-8

Net points per drive: -0.19 (22nd)

DVOA: -13.1% (25th)

Weighted DVOA: -11.4% (25th)

Tier 6: Not going to make the playoffs, but they can pull some upsets down the stretch

Cleveland

Studs

LT Joe Thomas: Did not allow a pressure on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for -3 yards on 2 attempts

MLB D’Qwell Jackson: 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 4 catches for 34 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection

CB Buster Skrine: Allowed 4 catches for 32 yards on 6 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

CB Joe Haden: Allowed 1 catch for 4 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

CB Sheldon Brown: 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 1 catch for 27 yards on 4 attempts, 1 interception

SS TJ Ward: Did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

Duds

C Alex Mack: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 34 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 30 yards on 7 attempts

WR Greg Little: Caught 1 pass for 6 yards on 4 attempts on 26 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

LOLB Craig Robertson: Allowed 5 catches for 50 yards on 5 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

LE Jabaal Sheard: 1 quarterback hurry on 39 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

DT Ahtyba Rubin: Did not record a pressure on 33 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Browns, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Cleveland Browns (2-8)

Charlie Batch will start this one for the Steelers. He should have started against the Ravens to begin with. He’s always been a solid backup quarterback who can win games when Ben Roethlisberger is hurt (5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS since joining the Steelers). I think he’s a better quarterback than Byron Leftwich. He’s also a better fit for Todd Haley’s quick throw, timing based offense.

He certainly should have come into the game when Byron Leftwich got hurt. Leftwich’s injury made him even more limited as a quarterback and as a result they lost. Batch probably would have been able to convert that 7-0 lead into a victory given how their defense was playing. Either way, the Steelers are definitely in better hands with Charlie Batch under center this week.

Even with Leftwich playing hurt, the Steelers almost knocked off the Ravens, only losing by 3. They outgained them by over 100 yards, but lost the turnover battle 2-0 and allowed a special teams touchdown. Even with the mere 3 point loss, the Steelers improved to 10-4 ATS without Ben Roethlisberger since he took over as the starter in week 3 of 2004.

This week, the Steelers get another familiar foe, the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are in a really bad spot this week after coming so close, but losing to the Cowboys in overtime last week. Excluding road dogs, teams are 18-46 ATS off a road overtime loss (6-14 ATS as home dogs) since 2002. They’ll be exhausted this week for a still tough Steeler team. Since the divisions realigned in 2002, the Browns have won 2 games against the Steelers (out of 21) and have only once been favored or dogs of 1 (they didn’t cover).

Even without Roethlisberger, the Steelers should be able to improve to 20-2 against the Browns as the Browns aren’t a noticeably improved team this year as opposed to the past decade and the Steelers always still play tough without Roethlisberger. Besides, Brandon Weeden will probably be a sitting duck this week against Dick LeBeau’s complex defensive scheme. Dick LeBeau is 17-1 all time against rookie starting quarterbacks, including a blowout victory this season over Robert Griffin III. Weeden is no RGIII.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play on the Steelers is because this is a sandwich game for them. Teams are 58-81 ATS as favorites after a loss as dogs and before being dogs since 2008. The Steelers lost against Baltimore last week, now are favorites, and then go to Baltimore next week. When all 3 games are divisional, teams are 0-3 ATS in that time period (it doesn’t happen very often) and if we go back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, the trend is 13-22 ATS.

The logic behind that is that the Steelers have just played a tough game, lost, and now have another tough game next week. They might overlook the lowly Browns and see this as an easy win to get themselves back on the right track before a tough game and get caught off guard. That being said, they are only 1 point favorites and it’s unlikely they overlook the Browns given that they are still playing without their starting quarterback. Besides, Mike Tomlin is 17-10 ATS off a loss, including 5-3 ATS as favorites off a loss as dogs, since taking over in 2007. It’s 3 units on the Steelers and it would have been 4 or 5 if they were dogs and they weren’t publicly backed (as I’ve mentioned, the odds makers have had a rough 3 week stretch and are due for a big week).

Public lean: Pittsburgh (70% range)

Sharps lean: PIT 6 CLE 5

Final update: No change.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -1 (-110) 3 units

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Cleveland Browns: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 28 (+0)

Record: 2-8

The Browns haven’t been run out of the building by anyone this year. They’ve only lost one game by more than 10 this year and at was a game that was closer than the final score and one in which they led by 14 early. So that’s encouraging. However, it’s really an issue that this team can’t seem to win close games and it’s not just this year. Since the start of the 2010 season, they’ve lost 18 games by 7 points or fewer, by far most in the NFL. Even last week when they jumped out to a 13-0 lead on the road in Dallas, I wasn’t too worried that I picked Dallas in survivor because I felt the Cowboys had a very good chance to come back and sure enough they did.

Studs

FS Usama Young: 1 sack on 1 blitz, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops, was not thrown on

Duds

LG John Greco: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 34 yards on 7 attempts

CB Sheldon Brown: Allowed 10 catches for 129 yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts, 1 pass deflection

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Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Browns, Cowboys

Cleveland Browns (2-7) at Dallas Cowboys (4-5)

As many of you who read these picks regularly know, I love using yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential to compute real line. Yards per play differential measures how well a team does on an average play (offensive or defensive) and overrates teams that get a lot of big plays, but frequently have drives stall.

Rate of sustaining drives differential is a stat I created myself to fix that aforementioned problem that measures team’s offensive and defensive efficiency on a per set of downs basis, meaning how often can you convert 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of downs or a score and how often can you prevent your opponent from doing so. It underrates teams that get a lot of big plays, so those two work together perfectly. I do this in order to find line value and overrated and underrated teams.

Well, when doing this on this game, I found out that this line is exactly where it should be. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Dallas -7, while the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Dallas -9. Average those two out and you get Dallas -8, which is exactly where this line is. Furthermore, the other way I like to handicap games is by using situational trends. However, the only two I could find for this game cancel each other out.

First, non-divisional home favorites are 54-37 ATS since 2002 after winning as divisional road favorites. The Cowboys won in Philadelphia as road favorites last week and now are favored at home for Cleveland. However, favorites just 23-36 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night game since 1989, including 14-23 ATS before being divisional favorites. The Cowboys host the Redskins next week on Thursday Night in their annual Thanksgiving game.

That being said, I do like the Browns for 3 reasons. The first is that I love to bet against the public. The public always loses in the long run and if you were to bet the opposite of them for a full season, you’d most likely always make money (you definitely would if not for the juice). I don’t follow it that strictly, but it’s something I use in handicapping. Two, the Cowboys struggle as home favorites, excluding Thanksgiving games, going 7-14 ATS at home as favorites since the start of the 2009 season, again with the exclusion of Thanksgiving games, when they normally fare well.

Finally, the Browns are better than their record. They have 7 losses, but none of them have been by more than 14 points, including just 1 by more than 10. As dogs of more than 4, they are 2-1-1 ATS, only failing to cover in a 14 point loss to the Giants as 8.5 point dogs. They actually held a 14-0 lead early in that one and lead up until right before halftime in a game that was closer than the final score.

Meanwhile, against Baltimore a few weeks ago, they lost by 10, but actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, but their 5 scores were all field goals, thanks to terrible play calling, while the Ravens got 3 touchdowns and a field goal. The only game they lost by more than 7 that wasn’t closer than the final score was week 3, a 24-14 loss to the Bills. They should be able to hang within 8 of the Cowboys in this one, but the key word is should.

I’d make this a bigger play if I was confident they wouldn’t shoot themselves in the foot, blow an early lead, implode in field goal range and lose this game by 10-14 when really they deserved to lose by 3-7. Dallas is also my survivor pick of the week as I can’t really see them losing to the Browns here in Dallas. Tony Romo is 20-3 in November and the NFC is 25-16 against the AFC this year. It was close between them and Denver this week, but I gave the tiebreaker to Dallas because Denver is a better team and will be more valuable in the future (4 games against Kansas City, Oakland, and these Browns).

Sharps lean: CLE 18 DAL 4

Final update: Sharps love Cleveland. I get it, but I don’t trust Pat Shurmur enough to make this a significant play. Besides, Joe Haden, the Browns’ top defensive player, is expected to be a game time decision.

Dallas Cowboys 21 Cleveland Browns 16 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Cleveland +8 (-110) 2 units

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Cleveland Browns: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 28 (+0)

Record: 2-7

Once again the Browns played a team close and came up short this week. Against Baltimore, they actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, scoring 5 field goals, which Baltimore just scored 4 times, though they got 3 touchdowns and a field goal. The Browns imploded once they got into field goal range thanks to some bad play calling. They also had a touchdown wiped off the board by a penalty.

They’ve been competitive in every game. They led the Giants 14-0 early before losing 41-27. All of the rest of their games have been decided by 10 points or less and in several games they were one play away from winning. Josh Gordon dropped an easy touchdown in a 4 point loss to the Colts and Greg Little did the same in a 7 point loss to the Ravens in their first meeting.

They have some nice pieces, but you have to wonder if Head Coach Pat Shurmur will make it to next season with a new ownership and front office coming in. I still think they’re not a team to be taken lightly going forward, much like the Dolphins last season, who started 0-7, but finished 6-3. Their schedule gives them two easy home games against Washington and Kansas City and a winnable road game in Oakland in the 2nd part of their schedule after their bye.

Studs

LT Joe Thomas: Didn’t allow a pressure on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

LG John Greco: Didn’t allow a pressure on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yards on 2 attempts, 1 penalty

C Alex Mack: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 51 yards on 11 attempts

RT Mitchell Schwartz: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

CB Sheldon Brown: Allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

LOLB Kaluka Maiava: Didn’t allow a catch on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 penalty

SS TJ Ward: Didn’t allow a catch on 1 attempt, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 1 penalty

LE Jabaal Sheard: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 23 pass rush snaps, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops

Duds

QB Brandon Weeden: 20 of 37 for 176 yards and 2 interceptions, 4 throw aways, 2 drops, 61.4 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 40 drop backs (1 sack, 1 scramble, 3 of 10, 2 interceptions, 3 throw aways, 1 drop)

RB Trent Richardson: Rushed for 105 yards (55 after contact) on 25 carries, 6 broken tackles, 1 fumble, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 4 pass block snaps, caught 6 passes for 31 yards on 8 attempts, 1 drop

FB Alex Smith: Caught 3 passes for 8 yards on 4 attempts, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 9 pass block snaps

WR Josh Gordon: Caught 2 passes for 38 yards on 3 attempts, 1.5 YAC per catch, 2 penalties

TE Jordan Cameron: Didn’t catch a pass on 2 attempts on 12 pass snaps, 1 interception when thrown to, 1 penalty

CB Joe Haden: Allowed 5 catches for 88 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 penalty

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Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Browns, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-6)

Road favorites are 42-15 ATS off a bye. That makes sense. Road favorites tend to be very good teams and very good teams tend to be extra focused with a week off. The Browns kind of got screwed over by the schedulers because they have two straight games at home as dogs against a team coming off a bye. Last week, they hosted the Chargers and were 3 point home dogs. However, the Chargers didn’t deserve to be road favorites, especially against the underrated Browns, who are now 4-3-1 ATS on the year. As a result, the Browns were able to pull off a “surprising” upset.

This week, however, they face a Ravens team that does deserve to be road favorites and divisional road favorites off a bye are 20-3 ATS since 2002. They certainly didn’t look like it before the bye in a 43-13 loss to the Texans. Because that loss came immediately after the game in which they lost Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb for the season, a lot of people assume that they’re going to play like that going forward. However, the defense is not at fault. Yes, they allowed 420 total yards, but before they lost Lewis and Webb, they were already allowing 396.7 yards per game and they were 5-1.

The reason they were 5-1 despite poor defensive play was their offense, which was averaging 385 yards per play going into that Houston game. Against Houston, they managed just 176 yards of offense. Joe Flacco did what Joe Flacco does on occasion and had a terrible game. He went 21 of 43 for 147 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.

However, as inconsistent as Flacco is, he always bounces back. He has won his last 14 straight games off a loss. He’s 5-1 ATS off a loss of 10+. He’s also 3-1 ATS off a game in which he threw more than 20 incompletions. He should have a bounce back game against a much easier Cleveland defense, especially off a bye. He’s 4-0 ATS off a bye.  The defense won’t play well, but they weren’t playing well before the injuries either and they still went 5-1.

Contrary to popular belief, they have yet to miss Lardarius Webb or Ray Lewis. Besides, as much as the Ravens struggle outside the division as road favorites, they’re 5-2 ATS in the division in the Joe Flacco era. On top of that, teams are 30-16 ATS before being 10+ point favorites since 2011. Teams tend to be extra focused in this spot. The Ravens host Oakland next week. Meanwhile, the Browns are in a bad spot as home dogs off of a close home upset (1-3 points). Teams are 21-34 ATS in this spot since 2002.

We are getting some line value with the Browns as the yards per play method says this line should be -2.5 in favor of Baltimore and the rate of sustaining drives method says this should be a pick em. However, that Houston game where they lost the yards per play battle 5.5 to 3.0 and the first down battle 27 to 12 skewed both of those statistics. They should be able to bounce back and the trends are in their favor.

Besides, in the AFC North, the Browns and Bengals have always had trouble against the Ravens and Steelers. The Bengals and the Browns are a combined 22-63 against the Ravens and Steelers since 2002, when the divisions were realigned. Specifically, the Browns are 5-16 against the Ravens. They’ve dropped their last 9 against them and they are 3-6 ATS in those 9 games. I don’t think they’re good enough to beat the Ravens yet.

This would be a bigger play on the Ravens, but there are two things stopping me. The first is just that I’d be more comfortable with the Ravens if the line was -3 or lower. I’m confident the Ravens will win, but they’ve had some close calls this year (wins by 31, 1, 7, 3, and 2), so I’d be more confident if they had field goal protection.

The 2nd reason is that the public is heavily betting on Baltimore. I was hoping that wouldn’t be the case after their fluky blowout loss to the Texans, but it is. I hate betting on heavy public leans. It is good to see, however, that the line is climbing along with the heavy public lean, so there’s no danger of this being a trap line. The Ravens should be the right side though, so it’s a significant lean. That 20-3 ATS trend is hard to go against.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Sharps lean: BAL 15 CLE 6

Final update: Of my 6 big plays this week, 5 of them lined up with heavy sharps leans. I feel really good about this week. However, I’m staying put at just 3 here. I really wish we had field goal protection with the Ravens though.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against spread: Baltimore -3.5 (-110) 3 units

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Cleveland Browns: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 29 (+1)

Record: 2-6

The Browns remain better than their record. At 2-6, they rank 25th in the league in yards per play differential and 28th in rate of sustaining drives differential. They’ve only lost one game by more than a touchdown and that was against the Giants in New York in a game that was a lot closer than the final score suggested. The Browns were leading 14-0 early and held the lead right into before halftime.

They’re also getting healthier as Phil Taylor and Ahytba Rubin return this week, while their pass defense has been better now that Joe Haden has returned from suspension. They’re not going to the playoffs or anything and they’ll probably still have a huge draft pick, but they’re not an easy win, as the Chargers will tell you. As I’ve said before, comparing them to teams that were winless late into last season, they’re closer to the Dolphins (who finished 6-3 after starting 0-7) than the Colts or Rams, who both finished with a league worst 2-14 record.

Studs

RB Trent Richardson: Rushed for 122 yards (68 after contact) and a touchdown on 24 attempts, 7 broken tackles, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 3 pass block snaps, caught 1 pass for 12 yards on 1 attempt

LT Joe Thomas: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 3 attempts

RG Shawn Lauvao: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

C Alex Mack: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 27 yards on 7 attempts

RT Mitchell Schwartz: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 16 yards on 5 attempts

SS TJ Ward: Did not allow a completion on 2 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 quarterback hit on 3 blitzes

FS Usama Young: Did not allow a completion on 2 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists,

ROLB James-Michael Johnson: 7 solo tackles, 6 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 4 blitzes, was not thrown on

Duds

QB Brandon Weeden: 11 of 27 for 129 yards, 4 throw aways, 4 batted passes, 4 drops, 69.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 30 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 of 6, 3 throw aways)

MLB D’Qwell Jackson: 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 5 catches for 60 yards on 6 attempts

DT John Hughes: 1 quarterback hurry on 24 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackle, 1 assist

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San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Browns, Chargers

San Diego Chargers (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (1-6)

I normally hate taking teams that are heavily publicly backed, but that’s exactly what I’m doing by taking the Chargers this week. I’m also taking a West Coast team on the road in the Eastern Time Zone at 1 PM, a situation that is normally bad for the visiting team. Under Norv Turner, it’s been no different for the Chargers as they’ve gone 1-4 ATS when traveling 3 time zones for a 1 PM ET start.

The main reason I’m doing this is because the Chargers are road favorites off of a bye. Those teams tend to cover at an incredibly high rate, going 42-14 ATS since 2002. On top of that, as I’ve mentioned in other picks, I do expect the disparity between favorites and dogs to close up. Dogs are 63-39 ATS this year. Neither dogs nor favorites have gone more than 10 games above .500 in a given year in at least the last decade.

Because of that, it’s no longer a bad idea to take a heavily backed team, so long as they are favorites. It’s not going to be a big play or anything like that, but I like the Chargers to get a road win here and cover in Cleveland as long as the line is 3 or fewer. The Chargers are coming off a bye and have had to listen to how bad they are for 2 weeks after that embarrassing loss against the Broncos. Well how about this? Favorites are 29-15 ATS since 1989 after blowing a lead of 10 or more to a divisional opponent. After a bye, there’s obviously fewer cases, but teams are 4-1 ATS.

Public lean: San Diego (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Sharps lean: SD 12 CLE 7

Final update: No change.

San Diego Chargers 27 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against spread: San Diego -3 (-110) 2 units

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