Browns

Cleveland Browns: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 31 (+2)

Record: 1-6

Despite their loss, the Browns move up. Last week, I mentioned I consdered putting the Browns ahead of the rest of the 1 win teams and some of the 2 win teams because they’ve been competitive in every game despite their record (worst in the league at 1-6). This week, I just moved them up out of the bottom 3. One 1 win team is still above them (Carolina at 28), but they’re better than the 3 teams below them, all of whom have been blown out on several occasions. The Browns have only lost one game by more than 10, none by more than 14, and in that 14 point loss, they still lead right before halftime.

Studs

LG John Greco: Didn’t allow a pressure on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

C Alex Mack: Didn’t allow a pressure on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 26 yards on 5 attempts

SS TJ Ward: Allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 1 blitz

LE Jabaal Sheard: 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

RT Mitchell Schwartz: Allowed 3 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 43 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 1 yard on 2 attempts

DT Billy Winn: Did not record a pressure on 30 pass rush snaps, no tackles, 1 penalty

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Browns, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)

What is wrong with the Steelers? After their recent loss in Tennessee, that’s all anyone can ask. Well, the problem is twofold. The first reason is that they just suck on the road as favorites outside of the division. They won 12 games last year and still barely beat Curtis Painter and Tyler Palko. This year, they’ve lost to Oakland and Tennessee.

In fact, in the Mike Tomlin era, generally a successful one, they are 5-15 ATS on the road outside of the division as favorites. Just like the Oakland loss, after which they beat Philadelphia at home, I don’t put a ton of stock into last week’s “surprising loss.” Inside the division, they are 6-5 ATS in that spot in that same time period and 10-6 ATS dating back to 2004, so I’m not worried that they’re favored on the road here again.

The other issue is injuries and this one could be more lingering and have a bigger effect on this game. Last week, already missing LaMarr Woodley and Troy Polamalu, they lost Maurkice Pouncey, Marcus Gilbert, Rashard Mendenhall, and Isaac Redman. Woodley is back this week, which is huge because it means, unless he reinjures himself, this will be the first game all season that LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison will both play in its entirety.

Maurkice Pouncey is also expected to suit up, which is very good news because backup Doug Legursky has time and time again proven himself to be an incapable replacement. Gilbert, however, will be out, which will hurt. Both Mendenhall and Redman will be as well, leaving Jonathan Dwyer to carry the load spelled by Baron Batch and Chris Rainey. However, they haven’t been a good run all year, so they’re not losing much.

The big injury is Troy Polamalu. He’s out once again this week. Since 2009, the Steelers are 7-9 in games without Troy Polamalu and allowed 21.9 points per game. With him, they are 27-8, allowing 14.4 points per game, with him. That’s not all him, but a lot of that is him. He’s their only irreplaceable defensive player and his mere presence can disrupt passing plays and running plays.

However, on the Bengals side, things aren’t going too well either. After starting 3-1, they’ve lost back-to-back games in upset fashion and despite being favored in 5 of their first 6 contests, they sit at just 3-3. Now they enter a tough stretch in which they could be dogs in 6-8 of their next 10. Last week, I picked against Cincinnati at Cleveland, expecting them to be caught looking forward to this big game, with Andy Dalton knowing he’s never beaten a playoff team or either the Steelers or Ravens (a combined 0-5 against those 2 and 0-9, assuming Baltimore makes it this year, against playoff teams).

However, now they’re home dogs after a loss as road favorites. Teams are 49-34 ATS in this spot since2008, including 11-4 ATS when both games are divisional. It makes sense. Last week, a team was good enough to be road favorites, then they lose, and now they’re home dogs all of a sudden. Besides, road favorites before being home dogs is a bad spot as teams have gone 67-102 ATS in that spot since 1989. Teams tend to be focused more on being home dogs than being road favorites and as a result are often better prepared for their next game than their opponent. They also can be undervalued off a disappointing game.

The Bengals, however, are not. Because of the Steelers’ “surprising loss”, this line has actually shifted more towards Cincinnati’s side, going from -3 in favor of Pittsburgh to -1. We’re getting line value with the Steelers, even if it’s very little. The yards per play method of computing line value suggests Pittsburgh should be favored by 3, while the rate of sustaining drives method suggests this should be a pick em. It’s very little line value, but it’s there and we also get a chance to bet against an overreaction. It’s also possible this is one of those “shruken line” games I’ve mentioned in early write ups. With dogs being 57-32 ATS on the year, it makes sense that the odds makers would shrink some lines to get more favorites to cover so the public doesn’t catch on and just start picking all dogs.

At the end of the day, I like Pittsburgh to continue their divisional dominance and their overall dominance of this matchup. The Steelers are 30-20 ATS in the division under Ben Roethlisberger, 25-17 ATS as favorites, and 10-6 ATS as road favorites. He’s also 13-4 ATS against the Bengals. Andy Dalton has still never beaten a playoff team and they’re looking pretty overrated, just like I predicted preseason, having lost to Cleveland and Miami, with wins against only Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Washington. I haven’t bet on them once this year and they’re 2-3-1 ATS, including 0-2 ATS in their last 2. I don’t intend to change that this week, as long as we don’t get field goal protection with the Bengals, though it’s a small play because there’s a lot of uncertainty in this one.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cincinnati covers)

Sharps lean: CIN 19 PIT 7

Final update: I’m going to drop down a unit. I don’t really have a good feel for this one and the sharps like Cincinnati.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -1 (-110) 1 unit

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Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Browns, Colts

Cleveland Browns (1-5) at Indianapolis Colts (2-3)

Indianapolis is in a tough spot this week as favorites before being dogs and after losing as dogs. Teams are 54-78 ATS in that spot since 2008. Last week, they lost 35-9 to the Jets as 3.5 point dogs and next week they travel to Tennessee, where they will be dogs as well and in between, they get a home game against the Browns. They could easily be viewing this as a chance for an easy win and get caught looking forward to a game against a divisional rival in Tennessee. By the way, that trend becomes even more significant when the following game is a divisional clash. Teams are 17-30 ATS in this spot before a divisional clash.

In spite of that, the public still expects them to bounce back this week as it’s a fairly significant public lean on Indianapolis. I love to go against public leans as often as I can because the public loses every year. There’s a reason odds makers are rich. The odds makers are not a bad group to be siding with overall because they always make money.

That being said, I’m taking Indianapolis here for several reasons. The first is the line value we’re getting with the Colts. No matter which approach you use to compute line value, either yards per play differential or rate of sustaining drives differential, the Colts are the better team and we’re getting line value. I prefer to use both.

Yards per play differential overvalues teams that either get a lot of big plays, but struggle to sustain drives, or teams that don’t allow a lot of big plays, but can’t get off the field defensively. Those are the exact same teams that rate of sustaining drives undervalues. Using the two metrics together can provide a clearer picture of how teams are playing.

Using the yards per play differential method, this line should be -3.5 (Colts’ yards per play differential – Browns’ yards per play differential/.15 and then add 3 for home field). Using the rate of sustaining drives method, this line should be -8.5 (Colts’ rate of sustaining drives differential – Browns’ rate of sustaining drives differential/1.5 and then add 3 for home field). For the record, rate of sustaining drives means, on any given set of downs, how often do you get a 1st down (or score) and vice versa for the defense. Either method, the Colts are the better team and we’re getting line value with them.

This line has moved 2 points from last week, when it was at -4 in favor of Indianapolis. That’s because Cleveland pulled out a “surprising” home victory over the Bengals, a victory that wasn’t surprising if you knew that Cincinnati was overrated and that home dogs are covering at a 66.7% rate this year. It’s also because the Colts got blown out by the Jets, which was more surprising, but still not enough reason for this line to be -2, which suggests that on a neutral field, Cleveland is better than Indianapolis by 1 point. Didn’t they just beat the Packers two weeks ago? Week 2 they beat the Vikings, which looks a lot better than now than it did then.

Also, Bill Simmons brought up an interesting point this week in his picks column. Dogs are dominating this year going 57-32 ATS. As a result, he believes, the odds makers seem to be shrinking lines. That makes sense. I just wished I liked more favorites this week. One example he brings up is Buffalo -3 over Tennessee, but both yards per play and rate of sustaining drives suggests those two teams are exactly equal. He also picks Jacksonville +4.5 over Oakland because he feels the line should have been shrunk there and it wasn’t because they’re overrating Oakland, which I totally agree with, but I would also add that they’re overrating them because the public is and they can afford not to shrink it. Oakland is a heavy public lean this week. In this case, however, it does seem that the odds makers have shrunken the spread because dogs are covering so much.

Besides, the Colts’ loss last week is explainable as they were coming off an emotional win over the Packers and completely overlooked the “pathetic” Jets. This week, they could easily have that positive ChuckStrong mojo going for them again. The biggest tangible reasons for their loss last week were their inability to stop the run and their -4 differential in turnovers. Anyone who reads these picks frequently know how much I hate to put much stock into turnover differential. On average, teams that win the turnover battle by 4 and teams that lose the turnover battle by 4 have the same turnover differential in their next game, about +0.0, and the same is true for every turnover differential in between.

Their inability to stop the run and their overall defensive struggles were a big part of the reason they lost last week as well and injuries can be blamed for that. Already missing Robert Mathis, Vontae Davis, and Pat Angerer last week, the Colts saw Cory Redding go down with an injury early. This week, Redding is going to be out once again, as is Mathis, but Davis and Angerer are expected to return to the lineup. Remember, Angerer has been out all season and Dwight Freeney went down early week 1. They haven’t been healthy all year. They still aren’t, but this is probably the healthiest they’ve been since the 1st quarter of week 1. Even if it isn’t, they’ll be healthier than last week. The Colts are in a bad spot, but as long as we’re not field goal protection with the Browns, I’m taking the home team.

Public lean: Indianapolis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Sharps lean: CLE 17 IND 4

Final update: Sharps don’t like Indianapolis, but it’s worth noting the line for LV Hilton is -3. I don’t want to take the Browns on the road getting less than a field goal.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -2 (-110) 1 unit

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Cleveland Browns: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 1-5

The Browns were competitive in each of their first 5 games, playing a fairly tough schedule over that period, and since their near victory in Baltimore in Thursday Night Football, I never felt that they were the worst team in the league, though they ended up being this year’s last winless team. It felt like they were eventually due to actually get a win and they did just that with a home upset of an overrated Cincinnati Bengals team last week. This week, they have a chance to make it two in a row as they go to Indianapolis, who looked awfully shaky last week, getting blown out by a mediocre Jets team last week. I almost considered putting the Browns above a few teams that actually are above them now. Maybe I’ll do that next week if they can win or come come.

Studs

LG John Greco: Did not allow a pressure on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 20 yards on 3 attempts

RG Shawn Lauvao: Did not allow a pressure on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

LT Joe Thomas: Did not allow a pressure on 32 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

WR Josh Gordon: Caught 3 passes for 99 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 14.0 YAC per catch

CB Sheldon Brown: Caught 3 passes for 22 yards on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 2 pass deflections, 2 solo tackles

Duds

FB Owen Marecic: Run blocked for 16 yards on 6 attempts, did not catch a pass on 2 attempts, 2 drops

LOLB Craig Robertson: Allowed 7 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops, 4 missed tackles, 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes

DT Billy Winn: Did not record a pressure on 43 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle

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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns

Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (0-5)

Last week I noted that, assuming Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Washington don’t make the playoffs and Baltimore does, the Bengals were 12-0 against non-playoff teams since Andy Dalton took over week 1 last year, and 0-10 against playoff teams. For that reason, I didn’t make a big play on Miami, even though I felt they were the right side, because it wasn’t a huge spread. Miami ended up winning. Unless Miami is a playoff team, that spotless record seems to be gone.

I had the Bengals as an overrated team coming into the season because of their struggles against good teams and now they appear to be overrated once again. Look at who they’ve beaten, Washington (2-3), Cleveland (0-5), and Jacksonville (1-4). The latter two are the two worst teams in these Power Rankings and they only beat Cleveland in Cincinnati by 7.

They’re now a dark horse team in the running to be the team that goes from out of the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer, which is where I had them before the season. After this a game in Cleveland this week, potentially a trap game, the Bengals face Pittsburgh, Denver, the Giants, San Diego, Dallas, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore, all of whom could easily make the playoffs. After Cleveland, their only remaining easy opponents are Oakland and Kansas City.

Fortunately, the Bengals do have yet another game against an expected non-playoff team here this week. They aren’t 12-0 against non-playoff teams and expected non-playoff teams anymore, but 12-1 isn’t bad. That being said, they could be caught looking forward to next week’s contest against Pittsburgh. Andy Dalton knows he’s never beaten a playoff team. This whole team knows that. Pittsburgh has been regarded as the class of the division for so many years, so that’s going to be a huge benchmark game for them.

Given that, they could overlook the 0-5 Browns. Divisional favorites before being divisional dogs are just 30-67 ATS since 2002. Meanwhile, home dogs are 18-11 ATS this season, so that’s something. The Bengals are also just 10-21 ATS as favorites since 2007. You’d think that would be improved with their dominance over bad teams over the past year, but they are just 4-4 ATS in that situation since 2011, so it’s pretty inconclusive.

Speaking of the 0-5 Browns, teams that are 0-5 or worse are 78-53 ATS as a dog since 2002. This makes some sense. No one wants to bet a winless team this far into the season so the odds makers can inflate the spread a little bit and be sure that the public will still bet against the winless team. That seems to be what’s happening here as most of the action is on Cincinnati.

Meanwhile, we are getting a little bit of line value in this one because the true line (calculated by taking the difference in yards per play differential, dividing by .15 and adding 3 points either way for home field advantage) is -1.5. That doesn’t even take into account that Cincinnati has had an awfully easy schedule, while the Browns have had to play the Giants, Eagles, and Ravens, 3 teams who could easily be playoff teams at the end of the year. With the exception of last week’s loss to the Giants, they hung within 6 of their other two opponents. Meanwhile, that loss to the Giants was a lot closer than the final score would suggest. They’re not as bad as their record would suggest and Cincinnati isn’t as good as their record would suggest.

I know the Browns could be without D’Qwell Jackson and Ahytba Rubin in this one, but they are getting back Joe Haden, so those should cancel out on the defensive side of the ball. It’s not a huge play because I hate making big plays on winless teams to win, but Cleveland does feel like the right side this week, like Miami did last week, and with Cincinnati coming off a loss to an expected non-playoff team and with a huge divisional game against Pittsburgh next on Cincinnati’s schedule, I feel more confident taking Cleveland than I did taking Miami last week.

Public lean: Cincinnati (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Sharps lean: CIN 24 CLE 8

Final update: The LV Hilton line is PK, so I kind of understand why people are picking Cincinnati. I’m not changing this one.

Cleveland Browns 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Cleveland +2.5 (-110) 2 units

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Cleveland Browns: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 32 (+1)

Record: 0-5

I know the Browns lost, but I’m still moving them ahead of the Jaguars. I probably should have done that last week. Before last week’s loss, they hung within 10 of their first 4 opponents and even though they lost by 14 last week, they still led right until before halftime. Jacksonville, meanwhile, got blown out once again losing at home by 38. Cleveland is ahead of them, for now, by just a little. Both teams suck.

Studs

RB Trent Richardson: Rushed for 85 yards (37 after contact) and a touchdown on 17 attempts, 6 broken tackles, caught 5 passes for 47 yards on 6 attempts, 1 drop

LG Jason Pinkston: Did not allow a pressure on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 1 attempt

LT Joe Thomas: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

WR Jordan Norwood: Caught 9 passes for 81 yards on 9 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch

Duds

TE Ben Watson: Caught 1 pass for 1 yards on 3 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown, 1 penalty, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 3 pass block snaps

WR Greg Little: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 1 drop

CB Buster Skrine: Allowed 6 catches for 58 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles, 2 penalties

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Cleveland Browns (0-4) at New York Giants (2-2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Browns, Giants

Cleveland Browns (0-4) at New York Giants (2-2)

In my weekly Power Rankings, I had the Browns in last for the 3rd straight week, but I didn’t feel comfortable about. Yes, the Browns are one of two remaining 0-4 teams and compared to the other one, New Orleans, they’re much less likely to turn things around. They’re the only 0-4 team that isn’t really a surprise. Everyone predicted they’d be bad, as they had been for years, and that’s been the case.

However, I really didn’t feel like they’ve been awful. They have lost a single game by more than 10 points and they’ve had a fairly tough schedule, playing Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Buffalo, and then Baltimore. Jacksonville has a win, but I don’t feel like they’ve looked good in any of their games, even their win, and their 2nd year quarterback appears to be much more of a bust than the Browns’ 1st year quarterback Brandon Weeden, who has improved as this season has gone on.

The Browns, meanwhile, rank just 23rd in the league in yards per play differential, which is not horrendous at all. If I were to compare then to Minnesota, Miami, Indianapolis, and St. Louis, all of whom started last year 0-4, I think they’re closer to Miami, who eventually finished 6-10, than the other three, who all got top-3 picks in the NFL draft.

So yes, the Browns are bad, but I they’re not awful and I feel like they’re underrated. Also, given that they have only lost 1 game by more than a touchdown and none by more than 10, I like that we’re getting 9 points with them this week. They’re 2-1-1 ATS this year and should be able to keep this one close again and improve to 3-1-1. On trend that works in Cleveland’s favor, teams in their 2nd straight road game as dogs off a loss are 59-38 ATS since 2008.

I also like that the public is betting the Giants, yet the spread is still falling. Also, even though the spread is falling, there is line value here. Going back to the Browns’ 23rd ranked yards per play differential, they have a differential .4 yards worse than the Giants. An old gambling formula tells says to divide that by .15 and add 3 for home field either way. By that logic, this line should be -5.5 in favor of the Giants, so we get 3 points of line value, which is significant. They’re also rested coming off 10 days rest, a situation teams are 111-89 ATS in since 1989.

Now, onto the Giants. They’re in a very tough spot this week. They’re coming off a loss to the Eagles as dogs and looking forward to a trip to San Francisco, where they will certainly be dogs. This is a classic breather game for them against the “lowly” Browns. Teams in that situation are 52-78 ATS since 2008. They’re also incredibly banged up. Kenny Phillips is expected to miss this game, which will hurt a pass defense that already ranks dead last in the league in YPA. An improving Brandon Weeden should be able to move the ball on them, just like everyone else has.

Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden are also expected to miss, though that’s not as big because Eli has proven he can put up big numbers in spite of banged up receiving corps. On top of that, two starting offensive lineman might not play. Eli is one of the best in the league at avoiding sacks when under pressure, but like any quarterback, his completion percentage does drop under pressure. Finally, this team is just 22-30 ATS at home since 2006 and 40-18 ATS on the road. I love exploiting these road/home disparities. Banged up and in a breather game situation, the Giants could find themselves in a game very similar to their week 2 game, needing a comeback to beat an inferior opponent.

Public lean: NY Giants (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Sharp lean: CLE 8 NYG 2

Final Update: The LV Hilton sharps seem very afraid to bet this game for some reason, but when do they, they pick Cleveland. No one likes the Giants this week. I feel pretty confident about this one.

New York Giants 31 Cleveland Browns 27

Pick against spread: Cleveland +9 (-110) 4 units

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Cleveland Browns: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 32

Record: 0-4

The Browns are the worst team in the league, but they’re not awful. They haven’t lost a single one of their games by more than 10 points. They rank 23rd in the league in yards per play differential, bad but not awful. They’ve done this mostly with their best player being suspended. There just really isn’t a truly awful team in the NFL, at least one that has revealed itself yet. I almost put Jacksonville here because they haven’t been impressive in any of their games, even their win, but for another week Cleveland is this spot.

Studs

CB Buster Skrine: Allowed 3 catches for 38 yards on 7 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 2 solo tackles

FS Usama Young: Was not thrown on, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes, 1 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop

LE Jabaal Sheard: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops

K Phil Dawson: 5 kickoffs, 2 touchbacks, 71.0 yards per kickoff, 18.6 opponent’s average starting distance, 3/3 FG (50, 51, 52)

Duds

WR Greg Little: 4 catches for 77 yards on 9 targets on 52 pass plays, 3.3 YAC per catch, 3 drops

TE Jordan Cameron: 1 catch for 15 yards on 6 targets on 18 pass plays, 7.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops

CB Dmitri Patterson: Allowed 10 catches for 136 yards on 13 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 11 solo tackles, 2 stops

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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Browns, Ravens

Cleveland Browns (0-3) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

Yards per play differential is my favorite single stat and right now, the Baltimore Ravens lead the league in it. However, as with any stat, you have to add a human element to it sometimes to interpret it. Baltimore’s defense, uncharacteristically, has been pretty middle of the pack this year, but an offense that ranks 1st in yards per play is behind their high overall ranking. The defensive relative struggles are explainable. The team is missing top pass rusher Terrell Suggs, among others, and ranks just 24th in the league in pass rush efficiency. This has lead to a pass defense that ranks 27th in the league in YPA.

Their suddenly explosive offense is also explainable if you believe that Joe Flacco has taken that next step as a quarterback in his 5th year in the league, thanks, in part, to Torrey Smith breaking out as the legitimate #1 receiver he’s never really had. Flacco has looked very good overall this season, completing 64.5% of his passes for an average of 8.3 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. If he keeps that up all year, those will not only be career highs across the board, but he’ll put himself in the MVP discussion.

However, it’s worth noting that he has played very well in two games against poor pass defenses, Cincinnati ranks 28th and New England ranks 21st, despite facing Kevin Kolb and Jake Locker in two of their games, but he also struggled against the only good pass defense he’s faced so far, going 22 of 42 for 232 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception against the Eagles and their 1st ranked pass defense. Just 3 games into the season, I’d say the jury is still out on Flacco as an elite quarterback.

Fortunately for him, he gets another easy test this week. Cleveland actually ranks 16th in the league against the pass, but if you exclude the game that Joe Haden played, they’re allowing 8.0 YPA, which would be 22nd in the league and that’s against Andy Dalton and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Haden is out for this one, so the Browns don’t have much chance of stopping the Ravens’ offense. Aside from Haden, their secondary is a mess. They’ve already benched two starters back there and neither of their replacements have played much better.

Meanwhile, Jabaal Sheard, their best and only pass rusher from last season, is having a major sophomore slump, with just 6 total pressures and no sacks on 112 pass rush snaps through 3 games. The Browns also have some trouble against the run, ranking 18th in YPC allowed, clearly missing injured nose tackle Phil Taylor. This was the league’s 5th ranked scoring defense last year, but missing key members with other key members struggling, they’re nowhere near that good this year.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Browns are also pretty bad. The Ravens, as I mentioned, do struggle against the pass, but Brandon Weeden is the worst quarterback they’ve faced so far (Andy Dalton, Michael Vick, Tom Brady). Weeden might not be terrible, but he has no help from his supporting cast. They are incredibly young offensively. Besides Joe Thomas, only the washed up Ben Watson is playing significant snaps and was drafted before 2009 and Watson might be losing his job to 2nd year tight end Jordan Cameron. They have 5 rookies playing major roles and 2 players in their 2nd year, 3 if you include Cameron.

Given their youth, they’re at a major disadvantage travelling on 3 days rest. The Ravens’ offense also might not perform up to their normal level on a short week, as short week’s tend to favor defenses (the under is 67-50 on Thursday Night Football since 1989), but the Ravens have an advantage being a proven, veteran, well coached team at home. Home favorites are 45-24 ATS on Thursday since 1989, including 10-3 ATS when the line is 10+. The Browns’ best offensive player is Trent Richardson, but he won’t be able to do much in this game because Baltimore is one again a top-5 run defense.

This game seems pretty cut and dry. The Ravens are one of the best teams in the league and the Browns are one of the worst. As big as this spread is, we’re actually get some line value with the home team. Baltimore’s point per play differential is 1.7 yards better than Cleveland’s and an old handicapping formula says to divide to that by .15 and add 3 either way for home field advantage to determine the “real line.” If you do that, Baltimore would be 14.5 point favorites and that’s not even taking into account how much worse the Browns are without Haden. That obviously works a little bit better a few more weeks into the season, but it’s worth noting.

The experienced, proven Ravens also have a major advantage as huge home favorites on Thursday Night. They’ll be much better prepared for this game than the young Browns, who have to travel. Two factors keep this from being a big play. One is just the size of the line. I hate making big plays on 10+ point favorites. The other is that Baltimore could conceivably be flat off of a huge win last week. Favorites coming off close win as dogs or favorites of 3 or less are 63-95 ATS since 2002, though that trend is less prevalent over the past few years (26-35 ATS since 2008). I still expect this to be a blowout and Baltimore is my survivor pick of the week. I’m also putting a unit on the under (44) because of the trend in mentioned earlier with over/unders on Thursday Night.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Baltimore Ravens 27 Cleveland Browns 6 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO)

Pick against spread: Baltimore -12 (-105) 2 units

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Cleveland Browns: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 0-3

In a year where up is down and down is up, one thing has remained constant, the Browns suck. Of the only 2 remaining 0-3 teams left in the NFL, the Browns are the one that isn’t even the slightest bit surprising. They are currently in the lead in the Blow for Barkley sweepstakes and should remain on the pole throughout the season.

Studs

LT Joe Thomas: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 50 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 19 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

Duds

RT Mitchell Schwartz: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 50 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 2 yards on 2 carries

WR Greg Little: 2 catches for 17 yards on 4 targets on 48 pass plays, 1 drop, 2.0 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

RE Juqua Parker: Did not record a pressure on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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