Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)
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One of the things I love doing is betting against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams. The Browns’ Brandon Weeden is 28 years old, but he’ll still have to make the transition from collegiate level defenses to NFL level defenses. The Eagles’ stout defense is going to be far tougher than anything he ever faced in the Big 12.
Weeden also has several major flaws, which is a big part of the reason why he wasn’t a top-10 pick. He tends to take unnecessary risks with the football and can get flustered when the pocket collapses. These are hardly rare attributes for rookie quarterbacks to have, but the issue with Weeden is, unlike most rookie quarterbacks, he doesn’t have 2-3 years to work through those flaws. If he were 22 or 23, sure he would have gone in the top-10, probably even a little bit ahead of Tannehill, but he’s 28, 29 this season. He’s actually older than Aaron Rodgers.
That’s why he fell to 22 to the Browns, where he wasn’t even the Browns’ 1st choice. They wanted Trent Richardson, Kendall Wright, and then Brandon Weeden, taking Weeden in the early 2nd round or late 1st after trading up, but when Wright went 20 to the Titans surprisingly, they just took Weeden. That tells me that the Browns didn’t see him as a polished prospect either. He won’t look like a polished prospect this year and especially not in his first game and against such tough competition.
Weeden has obviously physical advantages over incumbent Colt McCoy, but one of the things McCoy was really good at was avoiding turnovers. The Browns had just 19 turnovers last year. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. It’s not hard to see how the Browns will turn the ball over more this season and that will limit how much the newcomers will improve things. They’ll be better than the 30th ranked offense they were last year, but not a lot better and they will probably really struggle early in the year as Weeden gets adjusted to the NFL and fellow 1st rounder Trent Richardson gets healthy.
Weeden also won’t have a lot of help. Because they were unable to get Wright, their receiving corps remains very thin. Greg Little could have a breakout year if everything goes right, but Little was one of the worst in the league last year in yards per targets (partially McCoy’s fault) and after him, everything is an even bigger question mark. Mohamed Massaquoi, a mediocre receiver, will start opposite him while their depth behind the two starters are two rookies, Travis Benjamin, a raw 4th rounder, and Josh Gordon, a 2nd round pick in the Supplemental draft who hasn’t played in a game that counts in almost 2 calendar years. Tight end Ben Watson, meanwhile, is a declining player. The Browns add two other rookies to their offense, right tackle Mitchell Schwartz and running back Trent Richardson, but the former was just a 2nd rounder so he might not be that great early on and the latter is less than a month removed from his 2nd knee surgery of the offseason so, even if he plays, it won’t be a full workload and he won’t be his normal self. This is a very young and inexperienced offense playing a great defense.
The biggest strength of the Eagles’ defense is their pass rush. They were tied for the league lead with 50 sacks last year, lead by 29 sacks from Trent Cole and Jason Babin combined, and could be even better this year as they add rotational rookies Fletcher Cox and Vinny Curry and return Brandon Graham from injury. They legitimately go 6 deep at defensive end with Cole, Babin, Graham, Curry, Darryl Tapp, and Phillip Hunt. For what it’s worth, I think they have 6 defensive ends better than Frostee Rucker, who starts at defensive end for the Eagles. They go 3 deep at defensive tackle with Cullen Jenkins, Derek Landri, and Cox. I think they might have the deepest defensive line in football. Joe Thomas is an excellent left tackle for the Browns, but they’ll give him a tough test and they should be able to exploit the holes the Browns have at other spots on the line. Aside from Thomas, only center Alex Mack is a solid starter on this offensive line, assuming Schwartz predictably struggles out of the gate as a rookie. Weeden will be under pressure all night and, as I mentioned, that’s something he has trouble with.
Moving back on the Eagles defense, they added two much needed starters at linebacker this offseason, DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks. Though the latter is a 2nd round rookie, linebackers typically don’t take as long to transition to the NFL. Their secondary also makes a lot more sense this year than last year, even though they lost Asante Samuel. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will no longer be playing on the slot, where he is such a poor fit. Heading into a contract year, DRC should be motivated and playing outside again will allow him to have a bounce back year.
Now on the slot is 4th round rookie Brandon Boykin. He might have been the top coverage cornerback in the draft after Morris Claiborne, but fell because of his lack of size and injury. He’s healthy now and his lack of size doesn’t matter much on the slot, where he figures to have a positive impact. Meanwhile, Nnamdi Asomugha will no longer be playing in zone coverage, like they had him in for the first 12 games of last season. Asomugha was a terrible fit in that scheme and played much better in their final 4 games once they allowed him to play man. He’s one of the top cornerbacks in the league in the right coverage scheme and it’s no coincidence they had the league’s best passing defense in their final 4 games once Asomugha started playing much better.
It’s for that and several other reasons why I think the Eagles will be very good this year. Their +68 points differential was best among non-playoff teams by a mile (San Diego was closest at +29). In fact, only 8 teams finished with a higher points differential, which means the Eagles played like a 10 or 11 win team last year, a win total they could have had if they had an average record in close games. Turnovers and records in games decided by less than 7 tend to average out on a year to year basis. They Eagles had 38 turnovers last year. Teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more in a season have on average 9.7 fewer turnovers the next season and win on average 1.61 more games, since 2002. Add 1.61 wins to what this team’s points differential suggested their wins total should have been and you get an 11-12 win team. This year, they may be even more talented. They would have been in my underrated group in my season preview if they weren’t such a popular “sleeper” pick that there’s basically no line value with them anymore. They’re -9 here on the road with juice and were one of just 8 teams to have an over/under set at 10 or more wins.
The Browns defense has no chance of stopping the Eagles’ offense. They ranked 5th in the league with 19.2 points per game allowed, ranked 5th against the pass with 6.7 YPA, and ranked 21st against the run with 4.4 YPC. They did all this despite only 20 turnovers. As they are offensively, turnovers are very unpredictable on a yearly basis defensively. The 38 teams who have managed 20 or fewer takeaways since 2002 have had 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games the following season.
However, they have been ravaged by injuries this offseason, losing Phil Taylor, Chris Gocong, and James-Michael Johnson, while Scott Fujita will miss this game with suspension, meaning they’ll be without 3 of their top 4 linebackers, forcing undrafted rookie LJ Fort to start at linebacker. Taylor’s absence will force 3rd round rookie John Hughes to start at defensive tackle. Hughes was a major reach in the 3rd round. He didn’t even think he had a chance to go before the 4th round and didn’t plan his draft party until day 3 of the draft (rounds 4-7). The good news is that it looks like Joe Haden will not be suspended for this one, but the Eagles can just easily pick on opposite cornerback Sheldon Brown, who is heading into his age 33 season. The Browns have one good defensive back (Haden), one good linebacker (D’Qwell Jackson), and one good defensive lineman (Jabaal Sheard) and that’s about it. That won’t be nearly enough to stop the Eagles, who averaged 24.8 points per game last year, despite those 38 turnovers.
The Eagles finished last season on an impressive 4-0 run and turned into the team that no one wanted to have to face in the playoffs, outscoring teams 125-46 over that stretch. Of course, they didn’t have very tough competition during that stretch (@Miami, vs. NY Jets, @ Dallas, vs. Washington), but they don’t have tough competition here either and should be able to blow out the Browns in Weeden’s debut. The only reason this isn’t a big bet is because I hate betting on road favorite of more than a touchdown (they tend to only cover about 40% of the time historically). It should be an easy blowout though.
Philadelphia Eagles 34 Cleveland Browns 12
Pick against spread: Philadelphia Eagles -9 (-115) 2 units
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