Offense

Poor Browns. The franchise has not made the playoffs since 2002 and in the 9 seasons since, they’ve lost double digit games in 8 of 9 seasons, 11+ in 7 of 9 seasons, and finished in last place in 7 of 9 seasons. Last season was no different as a popular sleeper team heading into the season finished 4-12. Coming off a promising rookie year, Colt McCoy regressed, in large part due to the lack of supporting cast he had. Madden cover boy Peyton Hillis got hurt and struggled when on the field, leaving them with zero offensive playmakers. They finished 4-12.

Things didn’t get much better in the offseason as the Browns failed to sign any major free agents, failed to trade up for Robert Griffin, and missed out on Kendall Wright, who they were targeting at pick 22. The Browns were forced to settle for Brandon Weeden, a soon to be 29 year old quarterback, who the Browns were planning on targeting either late in the 1^st after trading up or with their 2^nd round pick.

Offensively, the Browns were the worst team in the league, in my opinion. Both Kansas City (13.3) and St. Louis (12.1) did score fewer points than them, but the Browns were a close 3^rd with 13.6 points per game. However, the Browns did this despite nailing 7 field goals of 50+ yards and turning the ball over a mere 19 times. Turnovers are pretty unpredictable on a yearly basis. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games.

That difference could be even more pronounced for the Browns this year. Colt McCoy was a very physically limited quarterback, but he rarely turned the ball over. In 685 career throws, he threw just 20 interceptions, a rate of 2.9%. Of course, he threw the same amount of touchdowns, an incredibly low rate, but their turnovers will go up this season. Weeden, as opposed to McCoy, has all the physical tools, but can be very erratic with the football.

Still, Weeden is an upgrade at quarterback overall and the Browns also upgraded the running back position with Trent Richardson. Those additions will cancel out the increase in turnovers, but anyone expecting them to be greatly improved over the 13.6 points per game they scored last year doesn’t understand that that figure was not a completely accurate representation of how bad they were offensively last year. They’re upgraded, sure, but they still have tons of problems.

Quarterback

The Browns currently have two notable quarterbacks on their roster, Colt McCoy and Brandon Weeden. McCoy was the starting quarterback for their terrible offense last year and Weeden is the 1^st round pick brought in to replace him. Weeden turns 29 this season so the Browns want to get him on the field as quickly as possible. He’s fully expected to be their week 1 quarterback and the Browns are very publicly shopping McCoy on the cheap.

McCoy was awful last year, but had no help. He’s still young and cheap and has more experience than most quarterbacks his age, so, at the price of a late rounder, he’ll be a tempting option for teams who are not satisfied with their backup quarterback. He’s an above average backup and will get traded at some point in Training Camp. If not, the Browns will probably cut him as he’s still popular in the locker room and they don’t want Weeden looking over his back shoulder should he struggle as a rookie.

And I do think Weeden will struggle. Recent seasons by quarterbacks like Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton and others have told us the contrary, but quarterbacks don’t normally have strong rookie seasons. Weeden may be 29 in October (older than Aaron Rodgers), but he’s not quite as NFL ready as some of the rookies in recent years have been.

He comes out of a spread offense and will have to learn how to play in Pat Shurmur’s West Coast offense. He also can be overconfident in his arm and struggles under pressure. Finally, he comes out of a conference that has not produced successful quarterbacks over the past decade (only 3 non-rookie NFL starters are from the Big 12: Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, and Blaine Gabbert, who have played in a combined 0 playoff games). He’ll lead this team on more scoring drives than Colt McCoy did, but also turn the ball over a lot and I don’t see a successful rookie year in his future, especially with a poor offensive supporting cast.

Grade: C

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The Bengals have a lot of recent high draft picks in their receiving corps, but they’re all raw at best. Their top 4 receivers, in some order, will be Greg Little, a 2011 2^nd round pick, Mohamed Massaquoi, a 2009 2^nd round pick, Travis Benjamin, a 2012 4^th round pick, and Josh Gordon, a 2^nd round pick in the 2012 supplemental draft. Massaquoi showed a lot of promise as a rookie, leading the team with 34 catches for 624 yards and 3 touchdowns. However, he’s managed just 67 catches for 867 yards and 4 touchdowns in the 2 seasons since. It’s time to stop expecting a breakout season that doesn’t seem to be coming.

Massaquoi will still start, sadly. He’ll start opposite Greg Little. Little was their leading receiver with 61 catches for 709 yards and 2 touchdowns last year, but he was 2^nd in the league in drops with 14 and managed a pathetic 6.3 yards per target. Only one wide receiver graded out worse than him on ProFootballFocus. However, he was very raw last season as a 2^nd round rookie who didn’t play at all in 2010 and who never had big time production in college. He should be better in 2012 and the buzz around him this offseason has been positive with some even suggesting he could be a Pro Bowl caliber player this year with an upgrade at quarterback. He’s certainly got that kind of upside, but he could still be very raw.

The other two receivers I mentioned are both rookies. Travis Benjamin was a 4^th round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. He’s fast and a deadly returner, but there’s a reason he was available in the 4^th round. He’s incredibly raw as a receiver. He’ll sadly line up in the slot. Josh Gordon, meanwhile, recently was a 2^nd round pick in the supplemental draft. He’s got more upside and talent than Benjamin, but he’s also been out of football for almost 2 years and hasn’t had the benefit of OTAs and minicamps that other receivers have had.

Rookie wide receivers almost always take a year or so to adjust to the speed of the NFL, but Gordon could really struggle with that as a rookie, as well as with the playbook. If he ever has an impact, it’ll be in 2013 and beyond. I expect him to be their 4^th receiver this season, but after Little, the next 3 guys could conceivably line up in any order on the depth chart.

The Browns also have a good number of tight ends that they’ll use. Ben Watson had a strong year in 2010 with 68 catches for 763 yards and 3 touchdowns, but in 2011, he caught just 37 passes for 410 yards and 2 touchdowns. Heading into his age 32 season, his best years are behind him. Evan Moore has never been a starter, but you can definitely argue that he’s deserved more playing time than he’s gotten over the past few years. Over the past 3 years, Moore actually ranks 10^th in yards per route run. He’s not much of a blocker, but he deserves more playing time than an aged Watson. He figures to be underutilized again this season. 2011 4^th round pick Jordan Cameron, an athletic but raw player, also figures to be in the mix, as does veteran Alex Smith. They caught 6 and 14 balls last year respectively.

Grade: C

Running Backs

One thing the Browns should be able to do pretty well is run the football. The Browns traded up to get Trent Richardson in the 2012 NFL Draft. Rookie running backs don’t have a recent history of success as 1^st round backs have averaged just 165 carries in their rookie year since 2007. However, Richardson is probably more talented than any of those backs, with the exception of Adrian Peterson. A true 3 down back, Richardson doesn’t have a single flaw and only injuries can stop him from being a Pro Bowl caliber back at some point in his career. Along with Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, and David DeCastro, Richardson is one of the few players who I think will be among the top-10 at their position as a rookie.

One concern for the Browns has to be their depth. There is some concern with injuries with Richardson because of his position and because rookie running backs do seem to have trouble adjusting from a 12 or 13 game schedule to a 16 game schedule. Their #2 back is Brandon Jackson, a veteran who is good as a pass protector and pass catcher, but heading into his age 27 season, Jackson has a career 3.8 YPC on 347 carries. Chris Ogbonnaya and Montario Hardesty will compete to be the #3 back. Neither of those guys had much success when counted on last season.

Grade: B+

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Offensive Line

Like every other group on their offense, their offensive line was also a problem last season. I think they did more to fix their offensive line problems than they did to fix their quarterback or wide receiver problems, but not nearly as much as they did to fix their running backs problems. The new addition is 2^nd round rookie Mitchell Schwartz, who is expected to start at right tackle.

Schwartz was a bit of a peculiar selection ahead of players such as Jonathan Martin and Cordy Glenn, but he’s a good player who should be a solid starter at right tackle. He’s a rookie, however, so it’s unreasonable to expect a lot of him right away. He should still be an upgrade over Tony Pashos, the incumbent who is currently still available as a free agent as of this writing. Pashos allowed 7 sacks, but was actually a pretty solid pass protector, allowing just 15 pressures and no quarterback hits. He was penalized 6 times. His biggest weakness was as a run blocker. As a rookie, Schwartz should be the exact opposite type of player.

Solid as pass blockers and poor as run blockers was a theme upfront for the Browns. The 39 sacks they allowed last year wasn’t too bad, good for 19^th out of 32 teams, but they struggled to open things up on the ground. They were ProFootballFocus’ 11^th ranked pass blocking team and 20^th ranked run blocking team. The biggest problem was their guards.

With Eric Steinbach missing the whole season with a back injury, the Browns were forced to start Shawn Lauvao and Jason Pinkston at guard. Lauvao, a 2010 3^rd round pick, has never done well as a starter. Last year, he allowed 6 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 18 quarterback pressures, committed 11 penalties and struggled as a run blocker. He had a -8.5 rating on ProFootballFocus. Pinkston, a 5^th round rookie last year, was even worse, with a -19.5 rating, ranked 69^th among 76 guard on ProFootballFocus. He allowed 1 sack, 10 quarterback hits, and 24 quarterback pressures, committed 4 penalties and was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd worst rated run blocking guard.

Steinbach has not been brought back after his back injury and is still available on the open market. He may have to retire. The Browns didn’t bring in any upgrades. It’s possible 5^th round rookie Ryan Miller could have to step into the lineup, but that wouldn’t be a good thing. Pinkston and Lauvao are still young and could improve, but it’s still a position of major weakness.

Sandwiched between those two guards is center Alex Mack. Mack is one of two bright spots on the Browns’ offensive line. He was ProFootballFocus’ 9^th rated center last year with a 7.3 rating. Joe Thomas is the other bright spot. Thomas is one of the league’s premier offensive tackles and has been since being the 3^rd overall pick in 2007, but last year was actually a bit of a down year for him.

He was ProFootballFocus’ 10^th ranked offensive tackle, which is pretty good for a down year, but it was a down year nonetheless. In 2010, he ranked 8^th and in 2009 he ranked 2^nd. He’s been ProFootballFocus’ highest rated pass blocking offensive tackle over the past 3 years. Last year, he was their 1^st ranked pass blocking offensive tackle, allowing just 3 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 15 quarterback pressures, but 9 penalties hurt his rating, as did his play as a run blocker. He’s been better as a run blocker in the past though.

Overall, it’s a pretty mixed bag upfront for the Browns. Joe Thomas and Alex Mack are among the best at their respective positions, while both of their guards struggled last year, and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz is an unknown commodity. Overall, they figure to be better in pass protection than as run blockers again. The bad news is, overall, the Browns still really like talent offensively unless Weeden can have a strong rookie year, which I don’t expect.

Grade: B-

Defense

The Browns’ defense is the only reason why the Browns won any games last season. They ranked 5^th in the league with 19.2 points per game allowed, ranked 5^th against the pass with 6.7 YPA, and ranked 21^st against the run with 4.4 YPC. However, they were just 2 points per game away from being 13^th in terms of scoring and .2 YPA away from being 13^th in terms of pass defense. Their ranks are a bit misleading in those two categories as they were on top of big chunks of teams with similar numbers.

They also only managed 32 sacks, with only one player managing more than 6 sacks. Furthermore, an in depth look at their defense (which I’ll get into) shows a lack of talent relative to where they ranked last year. The good news is that they did all this despite only 20 turnovers. As they are offensively, turnovers are very unpredictable on a yearly basis defensively. The 38 teams who have managed 20 or fewer takeaways since 2002 have had 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games the following season.

Defensive Line

Their most talented defensive lineman is defensive end Jabaal Sheard, who was their only pass rusher with more than 6 sacks last season. Sheard, a mere 2^nd round rookie, had 9 sacks, as well as 4 quarterback hits and 42 quarterback pressures. On 494 pass rushes, that was good for a rate of 11.3%. He has a bright future. Ahytba Rubin was 2^nd on the team in sacks with 6. The defensive tackle also had 5 quarterback hits and 17 quarterback pressures on 486 pass rushes, good for a rate of 5.8%. He was also good against the run and finished with an 8.9 rating on ProFootballFocus.

The other two spots on the defensive line are weaknesses. Phil Taylor, who was alright as a 1^st round rookie last year, had a bright future going into his 2^nd season this year, but the defensive tackle tore his pectoral in the offseason and could miss the entire season. Even if he’s good to go late in the season, the Browns won’t bring him back and risk further injury if they’re out of the playoff race, which I expect them to be.

In his absence, the Browns have 3 players competing for the starting spot. All 3 of Scott Paxson, Billy Winn, and John Hughes could see significant snaps at the position. Paxson is a veteran run stuffer, who doesn’t offer much as a pass rusher, while Hughes and Winn are 3^rd and 6^th round rookies respectively. Hughes was a major reach in the 3^rd round. No one expected him to go that high, not even Hughes himself. He didn’t plan his draft party until day 3 of the draft because he didn’t expect to go anywhere above the 4^th round. Winn, on the other hand, was a steal in the 6^th round. He was actually a consensus higher rated player than Hughes was before the draft.

The 4^th defensive lineman last year was Jayme Mitchell, but he was awful. With a -15.3 rating, only one defensive end graded out worse than him on ProFootballFocus and he was the worst pass rusher by more than 6 points. On 376 pass rushes, he had 3 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback sacks, good for a pathetic rate of 4.0%.

He’s gone, but the Browns replaced him with an equally pathetic pass rusher. Frostee Rucker, previously of the Bengals, managed 4 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback pressures on 215 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 5.1%. That somehow made him deserving of a 20.5 million dollar deal over 5 years. He’s a solid run stopper, who ranked 12^th on ProFootballFocus last year in that facet, but that hardly makes him worth that kind of money, especially since he was just a situational player last year. He’ll play some defensive tackle on passing downs.

On passing downs, Juqua Parker will come in after signing a 3 million dollar deal coming over from Philadelphia. Parker was a good situational pass rusher last year, but he played only 262 snaps last year. On 146 pass rush snaps, he had 2 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 14 quarterback pressures, good for a rate of 13.7%, but added snaps could cause him to struggle more in Cleveland this year. He’s also 34. For those keeping score, they’ll be paying Frostee Rucker and Juqua Parker 7 million combined this year. For that kind of money, they could have actually signed a good defensive end, provided one actually wanted to come to Cleveland.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

At linebacker, the Browns resigned one of, if not their best defensive player, D’Qwell Jackson, this offseason. However, they really overpaid for him. Middle linebackers were greeted with a cold market this offseason with guys like David Hawthrone signing for 19 million over 5 years, Curtis Lofton signing for 27.5 million over 5 years, and Stephen Tulloch signing for 25.5 million over 5 years. The Browns locked up Jackson before free agency for a whopping 42.5 million over 5 years, which looks ridiculous now.

Nonetheless, the Browns do have a great player signed. When healthy, Jackson is one of the league’s best middle linebackers. Last year, he played in all 16 games and rated 8^th at his position on ProFootballFocus with an 18.4 rating. The problem is he’s injury prone. Before last year, he missed 26 games in the previous 2 seasons. He’s had some injuries this offseason too, so it’s a situation Browns fans should worry about.

The Browns are already missing one linebacker. Scott Fujita has been suspended for the first 3 games of the season for his role in BountyGate. Fujita signed from the Saints last offseason and there was no way for them to know he would eventually be suspended so this is just bad luck on the Browns’ part (what else is new). Fujita is a decent player, but also heading into his age 33 season. In his absence, Kaluka Maiava is expected to start. Maiava did that last year when Fujita missed time with injury and he was solid.

Rounding out the linebacking corps is Chris Gocong, who is pretty bad. He was originally signed to play in the Browns’ 3-4, but when they switched to a 4-3 last year, he was not a fit and struggled equally against the run and in coverage. He could be pushed by Maiava or 4^th round rookie James-Michael Johnson in the middle of the season.

Grade: B-

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Secondary

The Browns’ secondary is headlined by 3^rd year player Joe Haden. Haden has been a shutdown cornerback ever since the Browns inserted him into the starting lineup late in 2010, after using the 7^th overall pick on him in the 2010 NFL Draft. He was ProFootballFocus’ 6^th ranked cornerback in coverage, a big part of why the Browns were so good against the pass last year, and he also played the run well as well.

Last season, he allowed 42 completions on 85 attempts (49.4%) for 657 yards (7.7 YPA) and 3 touchdowns. He didn’t have an interception, but it’s not like he didn’t have chances as he was tied for the league lead with 17 pass deflections. I’ve already mentioned that the Browns figure to have more takeaways in 2012, based on history. Haden turning a few of those deflections into interceptions is an obvious way that can happen. His one weakness was that he was penalized 9 times, but he’s a great overall cornerback. He’s never made a Pro Bowl, but he’ll be a perennial Pro Bowler once people realize how good he is and he might not even be at his best yet, which is scary. He’s not even 24 until next April.

Opposite him, Sheldon Brown also played very well. Brown allowed just 35 completions on 76 attempts (46.1%) for 485 yards (6.4 YPA), 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, with 8 deflections and 4 penalties. He did struggle against the run, however, but among eligible cornerbacks (60% of team’s snaps) last year, he had the 6^th lowest QB rating against, even lower than Haden’s (interceptions really help bring the rating down, which is why Haden’s wasn’t that low). The issue with Brown, however, is that he’s going into his age 33 season. There was speculation that he could be cut or moved to safety this offseason. It seems like he’ll start the year as their #2 cornerback, but he could decline sharply at any time.

If that happens, the Browns wouldn’t have a lot of options. Dimitri Patterson played well on the slot last year and was rewarded with a 3 year, 16.05 million dollar deal this offseason, but he really struggled in 2010 with the Eagles as a starter, ranking 99^th among 100 cornerbacks on ProFootballFocus that year. I wouldn’t expect him to play well if he has to start. Meanwhile, their dime back will either be 2011 6^th round pick Buster Skrine, who played 124 snaps last year, or Trevin Wade, a rookie 7^th round pick. I wouldn’t expect either of them to be able to step in and play well in the starting lineup either. They have to hope Brown holds up another year and then they can focus on the position in the 2013 draft or in free agency.

At safety, the Browns lost one starter this offseason as Mike Adams signed with the Broncos. Replacing him will be either Usama Young, who played well in relief of an injured TJ Ward last season, or Eric Hagg, an inexperienced 2011 7^th round pick. Ward, meanwhile, is back, for now at least. The 2010 2^nd round pick has had a history of injuries dating back to his days at the University of Oregon. When healthy, he’s an above average safety who is better against the run than in coverage.

As you can see, the talent isn’t really there defensively as much as their ranks from 2011 would suggest. They have one very talented player in each level of the defense in Jabaal Sheard, D’Qwell Jackson, and Joe Haden, but other than it, it’s pretty hit or miss. Also, while they ranked highly in key categories last year, they were also very close to ranking middle of the pack in those same categories. They should force more turnovers than last year, but they’re not an elite defense. Their defense will win them some games, but the offense will have to perform if they’re even going to be average overall as a team.

Grade: B

Head Coach

Pat Shurmur has only one year of Head Coaching experience, going 4-12 last year, but Team President Mike Holmgren, who also happens to be a Super Bowl winning former Head Coach, is a big fan of him. Holmgren brought him in personally and gave Shurmur a vote of confidence this offseason. Also, when Shurmur didn’t want Colt McCoy any more, the Browns brought in Brandon Weeden, even though Holmgren was a fan of McCoy, who he selected in the 3^rd round in 2010. I don’t know if that makes him a good coach, but he could have 2 years or so of job security even if they continue to be a last place team.

Grade: C+

Overall

The Browns have been one of the league’s worst teams over the past 10 years and things don’t look like they’ll turn around this season. They were awful offensively last year and the mere 13.6 points per game they averaged last season don’t even illustrate just how poor they were on that side of the ball. Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson are upgrades and they have some upside in their receiver corps, but overall their offense looks devoid of talent once again. If Brandon Weeden can have a strong rookie year, that will make a huge difference as quarterback is the most important position on the field, but I’m not a fan.

Defensively, they are better, if only by default. They should be able to win some games because of their defense once again, but they weren’t really as good as the 5^th place rank of their scoring defense would suggest as they were actually closer to 13^th place than 4^th in terms of points per game allowed. The same thing is true with their 5^th ranked passing defense. A closer look at their defensive talent shows an average defense at best.

They could be better than they were last year, but they could also be worse. In terms of talent, they are one of the worst teams in the league so anything from 2-6 wins is possible after a 4 win season last year. I have them at 3-13, because that’s just how it worked out. Their schedule is pretty tough and they play in a tough division.

Last year, they went 0-6 in their division. I think Cincinnati and Baltimore will be worse so 1 or 2 wins are possible, but they should struggle with their divisional competition once again. Outside of the division, they play host to Philadelphia, Buffalo, San Diego, Kansas City, and Washington. I have 4 of those teams making the playoffs and even Kansas City could give them a game. 1-4 is definitely possible in those 5 games. They also go to New York to play the Giants, to Indianapolis, to Dallas, to Oakland, and to Denver. They could win one or two of those games, but I think every one of those teams is better than them (except maybe Oakland) and those games are all on the road.

Projection: 3-13 4^th in NFC North

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