Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Rams, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10) at St. Louis Rams (6-8)

Since 1989, there have been 25 instances of a team winning by 17 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. The Rams have done that 3 times this season alone. Teams are 6-19 ATS off of that type of win as that’s clearly an unsustainable way to win games and it leads to artificially inflated lines and artificially overconfident teams. The Rams didn’t win in that manner last week, but only because of some garbage time touchdowns. The Rams led 27-3 going into the 4th quarter in what was eventually a 27-16 game.

The Rams still won by 11 despite losing the first down battle by 13. Teams that lose the first down battle by 11 or more and still win by 11 or more are 13-24 ATS the following week. I realize those are very artificial boundaries, but so is the original 6-19 ATS trend. The point I’m trying to prove is that winning a game by a large margin despite losing the first down battle by a large margin is an unsustainable way to win and it leads to teams that are overconfident and lines that are overinflated. For example, this line was at 3 a week ago and now it’s at 5.5. That’s a huge line movement, crossing over the key numbers of 3 and 4, and it’s the result of a fluky St. Louis victory.

Because 4 of their 6 wins have come in games in which they won by large margins despite losing the first down battle by large margins, the Rams are not nearly as good as their record. Despite their 6-8 record, they rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential. They move the chains at a 69.98% rate, as opposed to 74.02% for their opponents, a differential of -4.04%. The Buccaneers aren’t in good shape either, as they rank 29th in rate of moving the chains, moving the chains at a 66.33% rate, as opposed to 72.21% rate for their opponents, a differential of -5.88%. They’ve been buoyed by an unsustainable +11 margins. However, this line is still a little too big, as I have it calculated at 5, using rate of moving the chains differential. This line is currently at 5.5. It’s not a lot, but it’s something.

That being said, I can’t be confident in either side at all considering both have much more important games next week. The Buccaneers travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints, while the Rams travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. Teams are 37-74 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs, which both teams almost certainly will be next week. I’m going to take the points to fade the public and because the way the Rams have been blowing teams out is unsustainable, but I’m not confident at all.

St. Louis Rams 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +5.5

Confidence: None

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San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, 49ers, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-9)

The 49ers are in a good spot with no distractions on the horizon, with only a home game against Atlanta next on their schedule. Teams are 84-54 ATS since 1989 as favorites of 5 or more on the road before being favorites of 10 or more at home. In this spot, the 49ers can be as focused as they need to be in order to dispatch of an inferior opponent.

The 49ers have also been dominant against inferior teams this season. Colin Kaepernick has had his fair share of issues this season, but against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, Colin Kaepernick has completed 105 of 166 for 1565 yards, 11 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 210 yards and 3 touchdowns on 42 carries in 7 games. They’ve won all 7 of those games by an average of 19.3 points per game and covered each time. This is nothing new, as the 49ers are 22-11 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since Jim Harbaugh took over before the 2011 season.

As long as the line stays under 6, the 49ers definitely seem like the right side. There are three things that keep this from being a bigger play. One, the public is all over San Francisco and I hate heavy public leans. Two, the 49ers could be in a trap situation going across the country to play a 1 PM ET game as a West Coast team after the biggest win of their season over hated rival Seattle last week.

Three, Football Outsiders has Tampa Bay ranked 13th in the NFL in terms of DVOA. It not that hard to see why, considering their point differential is just -47, despite their 4-9 record. I don’t have them nearly that high as they are moving the chains at a 66.94% rate, as opposed to 71.99% for their opponents, a differential of -5.05% that is 28th in the NFL. I think they’ve been too reliant on an unsustainable +13 turnover margin to buoy their team, but Football Outsiders ranking them so high is enough to scare me off a little. San Francisco should be the right side though.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: San Francisco -5

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bills, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9) at Buffalo Bills (4-8)

The Buccaneers are favored here this week, something that has been a very rare occurrence for them this season. They were kind of favored against the Falcons a few weeks ago, favored by 1 point in some places, with the line being even in some other places and Atlanta being favored by a 1 point or two at the beginning of the week. However, with the exception of that, the last time they were favored was at home for Arizona week 4 and the only other instance was week 1 in New York for the Jets, both non-covers.

This is an obvious sandwich game situation, as the Bills as favorites in between a loss as underdogs before being underdogs again. The Buccaneers lost in Carolina last week and host San Francisco next week. Teams are 76-99 ATS in that spot since 2008. It gets worse for the Buccaneers because teams struggle mightily before being big home underdogs. Teams are 48-86 ATS before being home underdogs of 4 or more since 2010, 31-70 ATS before being home underdogs of 5 or more, 26-59 ATS before being home underdogs of 6 or more, and 13-37 ATS before being home underdogs of 7 or more. The early line is currently at 6 in favor of San Francisco.

The Bills, meanwhile, are in a much better situation with only a trip to Jacksonville on deck. Teams are 54-85 ATS as home favorites before being home underdogs since 2008. The underdog has no distractions to compete with a favorite, who could be distracted. I know the Bills will be road favorites and the Buccaneers will be home favorites, but the same logic should work and it might be an even more powerful situation. There’s just not enough of a sample size with that specific situation as this is just the 10th time it’s happened since 1989 (5-4 ATS). Going off of that, teams are 33-51 ATS before being home underdogs when their opponent will next be road favorites.

The Bills are also the better team. They move the chains at a 69% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponent, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are 28th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 71% for themselves. It’s not enough that we’re getting significant line value, but it’s definitely worth noting. I wish we were getting field goal protection with the Bills, but they definitely seem like the right side.

Buffalo Bills 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Buffalo +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Last week: 29 (+7)

Record: 3-8

It’s very clear now that the Buccaneers are better than their 0-8 start would have suggested. They have two All-Pro caliber players in Darrelle Revis and Gerald McCoy and another borderline All-Pro in Lavonte David, so, ever since Mike Glennon took over under center, they’ve been no pushover. However, I don’t feel like they’re underrated like they used to be anymore thanks to last week’s fluky win. The reason I call Tampa Bay’s win in Detroit last week fluky is because they won the turnover battle by 5. That’s really inconsistent on a week to week basis. In fact, teams who have a turnover margin of +5 in a game have an average turnover margin of +0.0 the following week. We’ll see how they do against Carolina. The Buccaneers scored 24 points despite just 10 first downs last week. Teams are 16-34 ATS since 1989 off of a game in which they scored 21+ points despite 10 or fewer first downs.

Week 12 Studs

LOLB Lavonte David

DT Gerald McCoy

Week 12 Duds

LG Jamon Meredith

RG Davin Joseph

RE William Gholston

DT Akeem Spence

CB Danny Gorrer

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Panthers, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-8) at Carolina Panthers (8-3)

At first glance, Carolina definitely seems like the right side here. Tampa Bay’s fluky win in Detroit last week moved this line 2.5 points, from 11 to 8.5, from last week to this week. That’s significant. The reason I call Tampa Bay’s win in Detroit last week fluky is because they won the turnover battle by 5. That’s really inconsistent on a week to week basis. In fact, teams who have a turnover margin of +5 in a game have an average turnover margin of +0.0 the following week. Going off of that, the Buccaneers scored 24 points despite just 10 first downs. Teams are 16-34 ATS since 1989 off of a game in which they scored 21+ points despite 10 or fewer first downs.

It’s very clear now that the Buccaneers are better than their 0-8 start would have suggested. They have two All-Pro caliber players in Darrelle Revis and Gerald McCoy and another borderline All-Pro in Lavonte David, so, ever since Mike Glennon took over under center, they’ve been no pushover. However, I don’t feel like they’re underrated like they used to be anymore thanks to last week’s win. This line is much smaller than I expected, to the point where I think we’re getting line value with the Panthers.

The Buccaneers are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents, which ranks 25th in the NFL. The Panthers, meanwhile, are 2nd, moving them at a 79% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 12, right around where it was last week, rather than 8.5 like it is now. In spite of that, the public is actually all over Tampa Bay. I love fading the public, especially when they’re on an underdog. On top of that, the Panthers are 5-0 as 6+ point favorites in since 2011, winning those 5 games by an average of 20.0 points per game. They’ve always done a good job of blowing out bad teams in the Cam Newton/Ron Rivera era, including blowing out Tampa Bay 31-13 a few weeks back.

However, there are some really strong situational trends holding the Panthers back. They have to go to New Orleans next week, while Tampa Bay only has to host the Bills. Divisional home favorites are just 18-51 ATS before being divisional road dogs since 2002, which is one of the most powerful trends out there. As for the Buccaneers, divisional road underdogs are 103-71 ATS before being non-divisional home favorites. Combining those two together sort of, home favorites are 52-86 ATS before being road dogs when their opponent will next be home favorites. The Buccaneers will almost definitely be much more focused for this game than the Panthers. I’m not going against an 18-51 ATS trend, but I’m not confident in Tampa Bay at all.

Carolina Panthers 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +8.5

Confidence: None

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Lions, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) at Detroit Lions (6-4)

The Buccaneers may just be 2-8, but they are better than their record. Before the season, I said they had 7 of the top-200 players in the NFL (Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, Dashon Goldson, Darrelle Revis, Gerald McCoy, Doug Martin, and Lavonte David). Doug Martin is out for the season, Carl Nicks is out indefinitely, and Dashon Goldson will miss this game with a suspension, but that still leaves 4 top level players, who have all lived up to their billing, five if you include breakout right tackle DeMar Dotson. Among those players, Gerald McCoy and Darrelle Revis are both playing at an All-Pro level and you could maybe say the same thing for Lavonte David.

Now that Mike Glennon has settled in and is playing decent football, this team is no pushover. They’ve won their last 2 games, including a home game against the Falcons last week that was a huge blowout for most of the game before garbage time. The Falcons aren’t very good obviously, but blowing out anyone is impressive. The Buccaneers are 1-4 in games decent by a touchdown or less and their point differential is only at -50, which is comparable to several 4-6 and 5-5 teams. This is despite facing a pretty tough schedule.

In terms of DVOA, they are 17th, while their opponent here, the Lions, are just 15th. The Buccaneers rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 72% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents, while the Lions rank 12th, moving them at a 77% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponent. We’re getting way too many points with the Buccaneers at +9.5.

The Lions could also be in a look ahead spot with a Thanksgiving game against the Packers coming up next week. Teams are 27-50 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a Thursday Night Game, including 11-26 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. We saw the Colts and Titans both fall flat in a huge way in this situation 2 weeks ago and the Saints had their first non-cover at home under Sean Payton since 2010 last week in this scenario, snapping a streak of 13 straight covers.

The Lions could especially be looking ahead because it’s such an important divisional game, it’s a Thanksgiving game (where they haven’t had success recently), and it’s against a Green Bay team that they have been pretty much unable to beat for a good decade. They have some demons to exercise next week and a good chance of doing so with Aaron Rodgers’ status unclear. That could really trip them up this week. The only reason this isn’t a significant play is because the Buccaneers have to go to Carolina next week and teams are 34-69 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. They too could be distracted. They should still be the right side though.

Detroit Lions 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +9.5

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (2-7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)

I had the Falcons winning 8 games before the season, but I never could have imagined a team with a quarterback like Matt Ryan could ever win 4 or fewer games. However, they have a very realistic chance of that happening right now, at 2-7. That’s just what happens when you have nothing functional around your quarterback. Matt Ryan is actually doing a very good job this season, as the Falcons are moving the chains at a 75% rate, above average, despite problems on the offensive line and injuries to his weapons. However, there’s nothing he can do about the defense, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a league leading 82% rate. As a result, they are 27th in rate of moving the chains differential.

That’s actually significantly worse than Tampa Bay, who is better than their record. Tampa Bay is 26th, but they are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents. They’ve been competitive in most of their games and their point differential of -63 is actually better than Atlanta’s point differential of -65. They have some very good players, including Gerald McCoy and Darrelle Revis, the latter of whom is unfairly being blamed for the Buccaneers’ record, despite being thrown on less frequently than any other cornerback in the NFL. In terms of DVOA, they are actually 20th, while the Falcons are 22nd. The Falcons have no business being favored on the road here.

The Falcons are also in a bad spot as favorites before a Thursday Night Game. They play the Saints next week on Thursday Night Football and that could be a huge distraction for them. They could have a very hard time getting up for the Buccaneers when they host the Saints in 4 days. Favorites are 27-50 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. The Falcons are in a good spot coming off of back-to-back losses of 21+. Teams are 38-20 ATS in that spot since 2002 as teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation.

However, I think it’s a different dynamic with the Falcons being favorites. They are the first team to be road favorites off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more since 1999 and only 5 have been road favorites in that situation since 1989, going 1-4 ATS. It’s obviously not a huge sample size or anything, but it makes sense that the Falcons might not be as undervalued and overlooked here as road favorites as they otherwise would be. The Buccaneers are in a bad spot coming off of a close home win as underdogs. Teams are 34-58 ATS since 2002 off of a home win by 1-3 points as home underdogs. It’s not a huge play on the Buccaneers for that reason, but we’re getting value with them and they should win this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Atlanta Falcons 23 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +1.5

Confidence: Low

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 1-8

Like the Jaguars, the Buccaneers were going to win a game at some point and when the distracted and overrated Dolphins rode into town, it presented an excellent opportunity for them to win. The Buccaneers’ win was more impressive than the Jaguars’ because they didn’t rely on the turnover margin to do so. The Buccaneers in general are a more impressive team. Their point differential is -63, as opposed to -176 for the Jaguars. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars are by far dead last, while the Buccaneers are actually 20th. The Jaguars are dead last in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank 26th. The Buccaneers have several very good players, including Gerald McCoy and Darrelle Revis, the latter of whom is unfairly being blamed for the Buccaneers’ record, despite being thrown on less frequently than any other cornerback in the NFL. Even if the Buccaneers had lost, they’d be above the Jaguars.

Week 10 Studs

DT Gerald McCoy

MLB Mason Foster

LOLB Lavonte David

SS Mark Barron

Week 10 Duds

RG Davin Joseph

RE Adrian Clayborn

CB Leonard Johnson

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 0-8

The Buccaneers’ near win in Seattle last week just reinforces how difficult football is to predict and how ridiculous it is to suggest that any team is going to go winless (or undefeated) with half a season left to play. Winless teams can be very dangerous down the stretch and there’s value with betting on them as winless teams are 45-17 ATS in week 9 or later. This week Buccaneers get a Miami team that is distracted, to put it lightly, and not as good as their record. That game is in Tampa Bay and the Buccaneers have a very good chance to get their first win of the season.

Week 9 Studs

QB Mike Glennon

RB Mike James

FB Erik Lorig

DT Gerald McCoy

SS Mark Barron

Week 9 Duds

RG Davin Joseph

ROLB Jonathan Casillas

MLB Mason Foster

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