Buccaneers

Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-8)

The Dolphins haven’t had an ordinary week. They’ve spent a lot of the week answering questions about the Richie Incognito/Jonathan Martin situation and dealing with the NFL and the media. That’s a huge distraction, before you even get into the fact that this already weak offensive line is going to be missing 2 starters. I don’t have all of the information on the situation. Very few people do. But I’m starting to side with Incognito, considering all the people on Incognito’s side are players and ex-players and everyone on Martin’s side are media members who never played. I have to side with the players on a situation like this.

It’s an unfortunate situation, but it sounds like Martin was just going throw an NFL initiation and being toughened up by a veteran player and he just couldn’t handle it. It sounds like Incognito took a special interest into making sure Martin would succeed and was his friend. I’m not saying Incognito didn’t cross a line, but I don’t think he’s necessarily a bad guy. In other places in the world, Incognito would not be able to fit in. He couldn’t have a desk job or fit into the real world or anything, but he’s a great fit for the NFL, which isn’t really the real world.  The NFL isn’t the right place for Martin. By NFL standards, this guy is a huge pussy. He’s much better suited for a real job than Incognito. He should just do that. He has a degree from Stanford. He can still be very successful in his life. He shouldn’t have to play football.

Anyway, this situation is going to be a huge distraction for the Dolphins this week. As much as they want to say they are, they won’t be focused for this week, especially since they are playing the winless Buccaneers. After a certain point, there is value with betting on winless teams. Winless home dogs are 19-11 ATS in week 9 or later since 1989. They’ll be much, much more focused for this game than the Dolphins.

I don’t think there is as big of a talent disparity between these two teams as their record would suggest. In fact, the Dolphins actually rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank 27th. The Dolphins’ offense is moving the chains at a 70% rate, largely due to poor offensive line play, which is only going to get worse, while the retooled defense isn’t doing their job, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 70% rate and only allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate. I’m not saying they’re better than the Dolphins, but they’re better than their record (ask Seattle) and the Dolphins aren’t as good as their record. I think the Buccaneers pull the upset here against a distracted Miami team. As long as I’m getting a field goal with the Buccaneers, I have high confidence in them at least covering.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 Miami Dolphins 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +3

Confidence: High

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7) at Seattle Seahawks (7-1)

The Seahawks came up kind of flat in St. Louis last week as a huge favorites against an inferior opponent, winning only by the score of 14-9. However, they get another opportunity to blow out an inferior opponent and cover a huge spread here this week and the difference is they are at home. They’ve been incredible at home since 2007, to the point where you can almost just blindly bet them at home. They are 36-16 ATS at home over that time frame, including 20-8 ATS as home favorites, and 10-2 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more. They have been especially good over the past two years, as they’ve broken out as an elite team, going 8-3 ATS since the start of the 2012 season.

They’re in another good spot as non-divisional home favorites are 68-46 ATS since 2008 before being road favorites. They are in Atlanta next week, as they have no serious distraction keeping them from blowing out the Buccaneers here. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are in a bad spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home underdogs, a spot teams are 80-113 ATS in since 2002. They’re also a very good chance they’ve just quit on their Head Coach Greg Schiano at 0-7 and won’t be able to do anything about Seattle just running up the score on them, as they are one to do. The Seahawks should be able to cover this large line.

Seattle Seahawks 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

Pick against spread: Seattle -16

Confidence: Medium

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 0-7

It’s becoming very clear that Greg Schiano will not be the Head Coach of the Buccaneers in 2014, though they may opt to keep him until the end of the season, rather than firing him mid-season. It’ll be interesting to see who the Buccaneers can get to replace him considering how many people turned down the job last time it was open, reportedly because they didn’t want to have to work for the Glazers. The Buccaneers have scraped the bottom of the barrel for Head Coaches in their last 2 attempts, first with Raheem Morris and then with Schiano and their next attempt might not be better if history is any indication. It makes you wonder why they ever let Jon Gruden go, assuming that was their decision and not his.

Week 8 Studs

C Jeremy Zuttah

Week 8 Duds

LG Ted Larsen

LE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim

MLB Mason Foster

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Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (3-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6)

The Panthers are much better than their record. Only 4 teams (Denver, Kansas City, New Orleans, Seattle) have better point differentials than the Panthers, who are 2nd in the NFL to only Kansas City in points per game allowed. They are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, a differential is 2nd best in the NFL. They are a few plays away from being 5-1. In terms of DVOA, they are 6th.

That being said, this line would seem to take into account that Carolina is better than their record. The odds makers aren’t stupid. Also, the Buccaneers too are better than their record. They are 0-6, but, with the exception of a loss in New England by 20, all of their games have been relatively close, including 3 losses by a field goal or less and 4 losses by 8 points or less, which is pretty relevant considering the spread is at 6.5. In terms of DVOA, they are ranked 24th and last week they were the highest ranked 0-5 team in DVOA history.

That being said, I like the Panthers for three reasons. One is that they always seem to blow out bad teams and lose close games to decent or better teams. After last week’s 30-15 win over the Rams, they are now 3-0 ATS under Cam Newton as favorites of 6 or more, winning by an average of 19.3 points per game. In 2011, the year the Buccaneers went 4-12, the Panthers beat them twice by an average of 25.5 points per game. I don’t think anyone would be shocked if the Buccaneers went 4-12 again this year.

The Buccaneers did get revenge on the Panthers last year, though, as they were the ones who won both times. Unfortunately, that puts them in a bad situation here. Teams are 110-82 ATS since 1989 as favorites against an opponent who beat them twice the previous season. Normally I ignore the revenge game factor, with a few exceptions, because there is no trend supporting it and because I generally subscribe to the theory that if a team beat you once, it makes it more likely they’ll do it again, not less. That being said, there is a trend supporting this and it makes sense. If you’re favored, that generally means you are better or equal to an opponent and the fact that they beat you previously shouldn’t matter.

Third, Tampa Bay has to go to Seattle next week and they could be really distracted to play against arguably the best team in the NFL on their home turf. Teams are 33-65 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs, including 25-51 ATS as dogs. Meanwhile, teams before being 14+ point underdogs, which the Buccaneers currently are projected to be, are 4-20 ATS in that time period (2-18 ATS as dogs) and 27-50 ATS dating back to 2002. Finally, divisional home dogs are 5-22 ATS since 1989 before being 14+ point dogs. This is a terrible spot for the Buccaneers and I expect another Carolina blowout.

Carolina Panthers 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

Pick against spread: Carolina -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 0-6

Last week, Football Outsiders called the Buccaneers the best 0-5 team (in their history, since 1991) in terms of DVOA. I don’t have the historical context to determine whether or not that was true, but it made sense and they were definitely better than their record would have suggested. Every single team they had faced was 3-3 or better and 3 of the losses came by 3 points or less. An 8 point loss in Atlanta didn’t help their DVOA, but they are still fairly high in DVOA in comparison to their record, as they come in 24th. They’ll win a few games.

Week 7 Studs

LOLB Lavonte David

DT Gerald McCoy

Week 7 Duds

LE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim

CB Johnthan Banks

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Falcons, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5) at Atlanta Falcons (1-4)

I could go either way on this one. On one hand, Tampa Bay may be 0-5, but DVOA calls them the best 0-5 team ever (at least as far back as they have data, going back to 1991). I don’t have the historical context to determine whether or not that’s true, but it makes sense and they’re definitely better than their record would suggest. Every single team they’ve faced thus far has been 3-3 or better and 3 of the losses came by 3 points or less.

The Falcons are arguably the easiest team they’ve faced thus far. In terms of record, they are definitely the easiest at 1-4 and they’ve already lost to 3 of the teams the Buccaneers have faced. Injuries have decimated this team on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they are missing starting defensive end Kroy Biermann for the season and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon indefinitely. This is killing a defense that was pretty thin and lacked impact players to begin with, after losing Vance Walker and John Abraham this off-season.

Offensively, left tackle Sam Baker has missed time and will probably miss this week as well, forcing them to once again start the terrible tackle duo of Lamar Holmes and Jeremy Trueblood. Steven Jackson remains out, forcing the overmatched Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling to try to establish some sort of a running game, which they’ve been inconsistent at best at doing, especially behind an offensive line that has just 1 starter in the same spot he was in last season. Now both Julio Jones and Roddy White are out, Jones for the season and White for at least this week as his leg problems have gotten just too limiting to play through. He’ll miss the first game of his 133 game career this week and he was a shadow of himself in the first 5 games of the season, catching 14 passes for 129 yards.

There’s a chance they could win 6 or fewer games and teams who do so rarely cover as favorites of 6 or more. Teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but there was at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse. The Falcons could be in this situation this week, but there’s no guarantee.

On the other hand, the Falcons are a proud veteran team with a top-10 quarterback and they’ve had a week off. I actually don’t think they’ll win 6 or fewer games. I have them finishing at 7-9 right now, though that’s obviously subject to change. As bad as their defense is, allowing opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate, but they still move the chains at a 79% rate offensively.

The Falcons have also faced a tough schedule, as all 5 of their opponents are currently .500 or better. All 4 of their losses have come by 6 points or less and even though their only win was by just 7, they led the Rams 21-0 early before garbage time. If they can beat the Rams by a touchdown, they can beat the inferior Buccaneers by a touchdown as well, even after injuries. They’re also historically very good at home and off of a loss in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. They are 25-17 ATS (34-9 SU) at home in games in which Matt Ryan starts and they are 18-6 ATS off of a loss in games in which Matt Ryan starts. I’m going with the Falcons to prove they’re not quite as bad as people think against an inferior opponent, but I have no confidence.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against spread: Atlanta -7

Confidence: None

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 0-5

Mike Glennon looked better in his second NFL start, completing 26 of 43 for 273 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, but remember he had 2 weeks to prepare for this one and he was facing arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the Philadelphia Eagles. He still has 11 games to prove himself going forward, but if the Buccaneers finish with a top-5 pick and fire Greg Schiano, they’ll have a very tough choice between a top defensive player like Jadeveon Clowney and a 2nd tier quarterback like Tajh Boyd or, if they declare, Marcus Mariota or Brett Hundley. I’m not so sure they wouldn’t take the latter.

Week 6 Studs

LT Donald Penn

DT Gerald McCoy

CB Darrelle Revis

Week 6 Duds

LG Ted Larsen

RG Davin Joseph

C Jeremy Zuttah

LE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim

DT Akeem Spence

MLB Mason Foster

FS Mark Barron

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Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Eagles, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4)

This is another one I could really go both ways on. On one hand, the Eagles don’t deserve to be favorites here. Much has been made about all the problems the Buccaneers have, from Josh Freeman, to Greg Schiano, to MRSA, but they still have a lot of talent. Mike Glennon isn’t a very good quarterback under center, but they are still holding opponents to a 72% rate of moving the chains defensively, thanks to guys like Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David, and Darrelle Revis. They had 7 of my top-200 players before the season and 6 of them will play this week (Carl Nicks is out). The Eagles’ defense isn’t very good at all, so, in his 2nd career start after a week off, he could be significantly better than he was in the opener against a much tougher Arizona defense.

On the other hand, Nick Foles looked really good in relief of Michael Vick against the Giants. Yes, it was just the Giants’ defense, but he completed 16 of 25 for 194 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Vick completed 6 of 14 for 105 yards. The team was noticeably better when he was on the field. I’ve held all season that Chip Kelly’s offense is making a washed up Vick look significantly better than he is (ProFootballFocus agrees, as they’ve graded him below average as a passer this season). I think his offense can do the same with Nick Foles. The offense will obviously look different with him out there, but he should continue to get open receivers and he should continue to be supported by LeSean McCoy on the ground.

At the end of the day, I’m going with Tampa Bay, but I really wish we were getting a whole field goal or more with them at home. I don’t think Philadelphia has any business being favored on the road against a team with a solid supporting cast, because of how terrible their defense is. One trend does hurt them, as non-divisional road favorites are 17-29 ATS since 1989 before being divisional home dogs, though the Eagles could end up being favored over the Cowboys at home next week depending on the results of this week. However, I’d need at least a field goal to be confident at all.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +2.5

Confidence: None

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers, Uncategorized

Last week: 28 (-2)

Record: 0-4

This Josh Freeman situation gets weirder and weirder every week. Multiple people in the know have referred to “off the field issues” with Freeman that they refuse to get into for personal reasons (it’s not drugs, he passed a numerous amount of tests since entering the NFL). His privacy should be respected, but whatever they are, I’m giving the Buccaneers the benefit of the doubt with how they are handling the situation, keeping Freeman away from the team. He’s already the 3rd string quarterback and will likely be granted his release sometime in the next week or so, after the Buccaneers make a futile attempt to trade him. Mike Glennon is the present for the Buccaneers now and has 12 more games to prove he’s the future. A likely combination of struggles on the field, a top-5 pick, and Schiano getting canned probably loses Glennon his job for 2014.

Week 4 Studs

DT Gerald McCoy

Week 4 Duds

QB Mike Glennon

RB Doug Martin

RG Davin Joseph

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