Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Broncos, Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) at Denver Broncos (8-3)

The Buccaneers lost last week, snapping a 4 game winning streak, but it was once again a close game. The Buccaneers are still 5-2 since the bye and they’ve really looked like a different team since then. Josh Freeman is 134 of 220 for 1971 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in his last 6 games. He has a cannon for an arm, but he wasn’t using it last year, throwing 20 yards downfield or more on just 6.5% of his throws, by far least frequent in the NFL, despite being the 3rd most accurate deep ball thrower in the NFL. This year, with a reliable deep threat in Vincent Jackson, he’s going deep on 15.7% of his throws and, more importantly, he’s having a ton of success, going 23 of 55 for 932 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception.

Their makeshift offensive line is run blocking and pass protecting well. The Freeman to Vincent Jackson combo is deadly (47 catches for 959 yards and 7 touchdowns) and opening things up for Mike Williams and Doug Martin, who is running much better since the bye thanks to improved blocking and the defense fearing the pass. Defensively, as bad as their secondary is, they have a great front 7 led by the finally healthy Gerald McCoy and rookie of the year candidate Lavonte David.

Even before the bye, they were better than their record. They were 1-3, but all 3 losses were by a touchdown or less and all 3 were against quality opponents, the Giants, the Cowboys, and the Redskins. They have not lost a single game by more than a touchdown all year and on the flip side, they have 4 wins by double digits. Because of this, they are +56 in points differential and they are either 9-2 ATS, 8-2-1 ATS, or 7-2-2 ATS, depending on the line you had in the Tampa Bay/NY Giants game (either +7 or +7.5) and in the Tampa Bay/Atlanta game (either +1 or +1.5). On the road, they are either 4-0-1 or 5-0 ATS (Giants game).

Going off that points differential, they actually rank 10th in the NFL in net points per drive. The Broncos, meanwhile, rank 4th. If you take the difference between the Buccaneers’ (0.35) net points per drive and the Broncos’ (0.66) and multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game) and add 3 points for home field advantage, you get that this line should be right around Denver -6.5, meaning that we’re getting line value with Tampa Bay, who should, at the very least, keep this within a touchdown once again and once again cover, as this line is right at that magic -7 point.

I say at the very least because I think the Buccaneers have a very good chance to win straight up. This game means different things for these two teams. The Buccaneers are dogs before being favorites and teams are 98-56 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons, including 42-20 ATS when both are non-divisional. They have no distractions on the horizon with the lowly non-divisional Eagles on their schedule next and this is a huge game to extend their season. They have to go to New Orleans, Atlanta, and Denver in their last 5 games and they have to win 2 to make the playoffs. I think it’s more likely they beat the Saints (inferior team to the Broncos) and the Falcons (week 17, they could be resting starters), but they could win here.

The Broncos, meanwhile, will go to Oakland and play the divisional Raiders on Thursday Night football next week. The Raiders are lowly as well, but because that’s a Thursday Night divisional game, it’s a different story. Since 1989, favorites are 25-37 ATS before a divisional Thursday game, 15-24 ATS before being favorites. Teams do tend to cover as non-conference favorites before being divisional favorites, as those teams are 52-33 ATS before being divisional favorites, but they’re 4-6 ATS before a Thursday night game. The Buccaneers are much more likely to be 100% focused for this one. It’s a significant play on the Buccaneers to at least keep this within 7.

Public lean: Denver (50% range)

Sharps lean: DEN 14 TB 5

Final update: No change.

Denver Broncos 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +7 (-110) 3 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers

Last week: 8 (-3)

Record: 6-5

Net points per drive: 0.35 (10th)

DVOA: 2.9% (13th)

Weighted DVOA: 4.1% (12th)

Tier 4: Young teams that could make the playoffs, but won’t do much once they get there

Studs

QB Josh Freeman: 19 of 30 for 256 yards, 1 throw away, 3 drops, 105.4 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 11 of 32 drop backs (2 sacks, 3 of 9, 1 drop)

LG Jeremy Zuttah: Did not allow a pressure on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 27 yards on 6 attempts

WR Vincent Jackson: Caught 5 passes for 96 yards on 7 attempts on 33 pass snaps, 2.4 YAC per catch

Duds

LT Donald Penn: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard and 1 touchdown on 1 attempt

RT Demar Dotson: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 35 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

WR Mike Williams: Caught 3 passes for 28 yards on 6 attempts on 33 attempts, 5.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Leonard Johnson: Allowed 6 catches for 141 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

LE Michael Bennett: Did not record a pressure on 28 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Falcons

Atlanta Falcons (9-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)

The Falcons may be 9-1 and the Buccaneers may be 6-4, but the Buccaneers are playing better football right now. They’ve had 5 wins by a touchdown or less against sub .500 teams, including 4 at home. Denver is the only team better than .500 they beat and that was back week 2 before Denver got hot. Despite their 9-1 record, they are just +77 in points differential, 6th in the league (New England, Houston, San Francisco, Denver, Chicago). The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are +57, but in the last 6 weeks, they are +66 to Atlanta’s +29. The Falcons have lost to the Saints and they could easily lose to Tampa Bay this weekend. As I mentioned when they played the Saints, there’s only so long you can play inferior opponent’s close before one of them beats you.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have been on fire since the bye, winning 5 of 6, with the one loss coming down to the final play against the Saints. If you showed me tape of this team before the bye, I wouldn’t recognize them. Josh Freeman is 115 of 190 for 1715 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in his last 6 games. He has a cannon for an arm, but he wasn’t using it last year, throwing 20 yards downfield or more on just 6.5% of his throws, by far least frequent in the NFL, despite being the 3rd most accurate deep ball thrower in the NFL. This year, with a reliable deep threat in Jackson, he’s going deep on 15.0% of his throws and, more important, he’s having a ton of success, going 21 of 48 for 862 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception.

Their makeshift offensive line is run blocking and pass protecting well. The Freeman to Vincent Jackson combo is deadly (42 catches for 863 yards and 7 touchdowns) and opening thinks up for Mike Williams and Doug Martin, who is running much better since the bye thanks to improved blocking and the defense fearing the pass. Defensively, as bad as their secondary is, they have a great front 7 led by the finally healthy Gerald McCoy and rookie of the year candidate Lavonte David. Even before the bye, they have not lost by more than a touchdown all season. Only the Patriots, Seahawks, and Falcons can also say that.

As you can imagine, we’re getting some line value with the Buccaneers, even before you take into account momentum. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Tampa Bay -3 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Atlanta -2. Tampa Bay should really be the ones favored here at home and yet the Falcons are by -1.5. In spite of that, the public is pounding the Falcons, a bad sign because the odds makers have had a rough 3 week stretch and are due for a big week.

The Falcons also could be caught looking forward to a rematch with the Saints next week on Thursday Night. Favorites are just 24-37 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night game since 1989, including 15-24 ATS before being divisional favorites, which the Falcons should be when they host the Saints in Atlanta. It’s a significant play on Tampa Bay. Rather than putting 3 units on the spread and one on the money line, I’m putting all 4 on the money line. Since 1989, there have been 414 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 414 teams, only 7 of those teams won by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. It’s not worth the extra 15 cents for something that historically will only hurt me about 1.7% of the time.

Public lean: Atlanta (80% range)

Sharps lean: ATL 16 TB 9

Final update: Sharps like Atlanta, but they also seem to like Tampa Bay too. This is the most bet game of the week by the 44 sharps, with 25 of them having it in their top-5 in LV Hilton one way or another on a 16 game week. I feel fine taking Tampa Bay still. Asante Samuel could be out for the Falcons, which would be a big loss to their secondary in a game where points will be aplenty.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 Atlanta Falcons 24 Upset Pick +105 4 units

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-110) 0 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers

Last week: 11 (+3)

Record: 6-4

In order to go on a run, you have to be able to win ugly and win a game that you probably weren’t supposed to win. They have now won 5 of 6 since the bye and this close win wasn’t a fluke. It actually only improved their record in games decided by a touchdown or less to just 2-4 this season. They haven’t lost by more than a touchdown. They have a +57 points differential on the season, 4th in the loaded NFC, 8th in the NFL, and most important they’re hot. This is a scary team that can easily knock off an underwhelming Falcons team this week.

Studs

RE Da’Quan Bowers: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 22 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LE Michael Bennett: 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

RE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 27 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops

DT Gerald McCoy: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

Duds

RT DeMar Dotson: Allowed 4 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback hurries on 52 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

LT Donald Penn: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 7 quarterback hurries on 50 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 attempts

WR Mike Williams: Caught 3 passes for 29 yards on 9 attempts on 47 pass snaps, 3.3 YAC per catch

SS Mark Barron: Allowed 2 catches for 49 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

CB Leonard Johnson: 2 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles, allowed 4 catches for 44 yards on 7 attempts

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Panthers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4) at Carolina Panthers (2-7)

The Buccaneers have really turned it around lately and are now road favorites in Carolina, pretty crazy considering they were road dogs in Oakland a couple weeks ago, 6 point dogs in Minnesota the week before that, home dogs for the Saints the week before that, and then just 4 point home favorites against the Chiefs the week before that.

You could argue that they don’t deserve to be road favorites, at least not in Carolina, against an underrated Panthers team that is playing much better defense since their bye and who has only lost 2 games by more than a touchdown all year. The yards per play differential method says Carolina should be 5 point favorites, though the rate of sustaining drives differential method says Tampa Bay should be 2.5 point favorites (Carolina is one of the reasons I created the new stat). Still, if you average those out, you don’t get that Tampa Bay should be road favorites here. The Panthers are also home dogs after a loss as home dogs, a situation teams are 57-39 ATS in since 2002.

That being said, I don’t want to get in the way of Tampa Bay right now. If you showed me tape of this team before the bye, I wouldn’t recognize them. Josh Freeman is 90 of 154 for 1467 yards, 13 touchdowns, and an interception in his last 5 games, going 4-1, with the only loss being a winnable one that went down to the last play.

Their makeshift offensive line is run blocking and pass protecting well. The Freeman to Vincent Jackson combo is deadly and opening thinks up for Mike Williams and Doug Martin, who is running much better since the bye thanks to improved blocking and the defense fearing the pass. Josh Freeman has a cannon for an arm, but he wasn’t using it last year, throwing 20 yards downfield or more on just 6.5% of his throws, by far least frequent in the NFL, despite being the 3rd most accurate deep ball thrower in the NFL.

This year, with a reliable deep threat in Jackson, he’s going deep on 15.4% of his throws and, more important, he’s having a ton of success, going 20 of 42 for 838 yards, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions. On the year, Freeman is completing 56.8% of his passes for an average of 8.3 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. He ranks 7th in the NFL in QB rating, ahead of established veteran quarterbacks like Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, and Tony Romo, as well as young hot shots like Robert Griffin and Andrew Luck.

Defensively, as bad as their secondary is, they have a great front 7 led by the finally healthy Gerald McCoy and rookie of the year candidate Lavonte David. Even before the bye, they did not lose a single game by more than a touchdown. Their +51 points differential is tied for 5th in the loaded NFC with the Giants, one point behind the Packers, and tied for 9th in the NFL, with Green Bay and Baltimore in striking distance. It’s a small play on the Buccaneers, who are a league leading 7-2 ATS on the season.

Public lean: Tampa Bay (80%)

Sharps lean: CAR 14 TB 11

Final update: No change.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 Carolina Panthers 27

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay -2 (-110) 1 unit

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers

Last week: 11 (+0)

Record: 5-4

If you showed me tape of this team before the bye, I wouldn’t recognize them. Josh Freeman is 90 of 154 for 1467 yards, 13 touchdowns, and an interception in his last 5 games, going 4-1, with the only loss being a winnable one that went down to the last play. Their makeshift offensive line is run blocking and pass protecting well. The Freeman to Vincent Jackson combo is deadly and opening thinks up for Mike Williams and Doug Martin, who is running much better since the bye thanks to improved blocking and the defense fearing the pass. Defensively, as bad as their secondary is, they have a great front 7 led by the finally healthy Gerald McCoy and rookie of the year candidate Lavonte David.

I had this as a sleeper team before the season, but I didn’t have them in the playoffs. By the way, look at my preseason overrated and underrated teams. Underrated: St. Louis Rams, Indianapolis Colts, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Overrated: San Francisco 49ers, Oakland Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions. I messed up on a few, but I’ll take 6 or 7 out of 10 every year.

Studs

QB Josh Freeman: 14 of 20 for 210 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 110.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 11 of 21 drop backs (1 sack, 7 of 10, 1 touchdown)

RT Demar Dotson: Did not allow a pressure on 21 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 2 attempts

WR Vincent Jackson: Caught 5 passes for 59 yards on 7 attempts on 19 pass snaps, 2.4 YAC per catch

LOLB Lavonte David: 13 solo tackles, 1 assist, 8 stops, 1 missed tackle, 3 quarterback hurries on 9 blitzes, allowed 6 catches for 36 yards on 6 attempts

RE Daniel Te’o Nesheim: 1 sack and 7 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

DT Gerald McCoy: 2 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 38 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

LE Michael Bennett: 2 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback hurries on 32 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

P Michael Koenen: 7 kickoffs, 5 touchbacks, 73.3 yards per kickoff, 20.3 opponents average starting distance, 3 punts for 134 yards, 1 inside 20, 1 return for 11 yards, 41.0 net yards per punt

Duds

LT Donald Penn: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 21 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 4 attempts

C Ted Larsen: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 21 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

RG Jamon Meredith: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 21 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

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San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Chargers

San Diego Chargers (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4)

The Buccaneers are surging thanks to Doug Martin’s improved play and the improved chemistry between Josh Freeman and new free agent deep threat acquisition Vincent Jackson. Josh Freeman has a cannon for an arm, but he wasn’t using it last year, throwing 20 yards downfield or more on just 6.5% of his throws, by far least frequent in the NFL, despite being the 3rd most accurate deep ball thrower in the NFL. This year, with a reliable deep threat in Jackson, he’s going deep on 14.6% of his throws and, more important, he’s having a ton of success, going 18 of 37 for 753 yards, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

On the year, Freeman is completing 55.7% of his passes for an average of 8.1 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. He ranks 9th in the NFL in QB rating, ahead of established veteran quarterbacks like Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Tony Romo, as well as young hot shots like Robert Griffin and Andrew Luck, and he’s just 1 spot behind Drew Brees. Even better, he’s hot right now, completing 100 of 173 (57.8%) for 1556 yards (9.0 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in his last 5 games, and he hasn’t thrown an interception in his last 3. Jackson, meanwhile, is 7th in the league in receiving yards per game, leads the league in yards per catch, 2nd in yards per pass route run, 8th in quarterback rating when thrown to, 10th in drop rate, and 2nd in deep pass catch rate.

The Freeman to Jackson connection has opened up things underneath for Mike Williams, who is having a bounce back season, and of course for Doug “muscle hamster” Martin (worst nickname I’ve ever heard) who is having a breakout rookie year. They’ve won 3 of 4 since the bye and sit at 4-4 with a +41 points differential that ranks 6th in the loaded NFC (for reference, it’d be 4th in the AFC). They rank 12th in yards per play differential and 14th in rate of sustaining drives differential.

The Chargers, meanwhile, continue to fail to impress. They snapped a 3 game losing streak last week, but they did it against Kansas City in a game that would have been embarrassingly close if the Chargers didn’t get two defensive touchdowns in a few minutes of game time. They can’t count on that every week. Their last win against a team other than the Chiefs was week 2 when they beat the Titans, which isn’t much better. And their only other win was against Oakland in a game they could have lost if not for an injury to the Raiders’ long snapper, which led to 2 botched snaps and a blocked punt in an 8 point game. Again, not much better.

Meanwhile, they rank 18th in yards per play differential and 11th in rate of sustaining drives differential. Using those statistics to compute real line, we get -4.5 for the yards per play method and -2.5 for the rate of sustaining drives method. And that doesn’t even take into account that the Buccaneers have the momentum and come from a stronger conference (and have played a tougher schedule). The NFC is 23-13 against the AFC this year. In actuality, the line is at -2.5, so we’re getting better value with the Buccaneers.

In addition to being the better value, the Buccaneers are in the better spot. Technically, neither of these teams is in a good spot. Both are playing non-conference games before being divisional dogs. Teams are 43-68 ATS as non-divisional dogs before being divisional dogs, 11-29 ATS as non-conference dogs before being divisional dogs since 2002. That applies to San Diego, who goes to Denver next week. Meanwhile, teams are 32-60 ATS as non-conference favorite before being divisional dogs since 2002. That applies to Tampa Bay, who goes to Carolina next week.

That being said, using common sense, San Diego is clearly in the worse spot for three reasons. One, a game against Denver, who leads the division and who beat them in embarrassing comeback fashion earlier this year, is more likely to distract the Chargers than a game against Carolina, who is 2-6 and who the Buccaneers already beat this year, for the Buccaneers. Two, the Chargers will definitely be dogs in Denver next week, but you can’t say the same about Tampa Bay. The early line has them at just +1 in Carolina right now and that could easily flip to -1 or higher this week.

Three, the Chargers have to travel to Tampa Bay to play this game on the East Coast at 1 PM ET as a West Coast team, a situation teams generally struggle in. Under Norv Turner, the Chargers especially struggle, going 1-5 ATS in this spot. They’re also just 8-18 ATS on the road under Norv Turner before week 11, including 2-13 ATS outside of the division. The Buccaneers are the better team in the better spot and they’re laying less than a field goal at home. We also don’t have to worry about heavy public leans here because the action is pretty split. I really like the Buccaneers this week.

Public lean: Tampa Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if San Diego covers)

Sharps lean: TB 13 SD 7

Final update: No change. Still one of my two favorite picks this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay -2.5 (-110) 4 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers

Last week: 11 (+8)

Record: 4-4

The Buccaneers are surging thanks to Doug Martin’s improved play and the improved chemistry between Josh Freeman and new free agent acquisition Vincent Jackson. They’ve won 3 of 4 and sit at 4-4 with a +41 points differential that ranks 6th in the loaded NFC (for reference, it’d be 4th in the AFC). They rank 12th in yards per play differential and 14th in rate of sustaining drives differential. If history is any indication, they’re more likely to make it than some other borderline playoff teams in the NFC right now. Every year, 5 new playoff teams make the playoffs that didn’t make it the year before, dating back 17 straight years. I use this in my Power Rankings every week.

Right now, Chicago, who didn’t make the playoffs last year, looks like a lock to make it this year. Meanwhile, Cincinnati and New Orleans, two playoff teams from a year ago, look very unlikely to make it this year. Indianapolis, sitting at 5-3, is another solid bet to make the playoffs after missing it last year. Detroit, at 4-4, probably has to go 6-2 the rest of the way to make the playoffs, against a brutal schedule, so they’re probably out. Other than that, not much is set in stone.

Miami, San Diego, Minnesota, Seattle, and Tampa Bay are the serious candidates for the other 3 spots in the 5 in category, while, in my opinion, Green Bay and Baltimore, thanks to injury, seem to be in the strongest (weakest?) position to be the other 2 out. Philadelphia and Dallas were candidates to be in the 5 in group before losses last week and that pretty much locked the Giants, another 5 out candidate, into a playoff spot.

Pittsburgh is another 5 out candidate, but I think they’re a better team than Baltimore right now and will sweep the two games against them, but we’ll know more in the next few weeks. With New Orleans, Detroit, and Green Bay out, that opens two more spots in the AFC, with Chicago already pretty safely locked into taking New Orleans’s vacated spot. I think Tampa Bay and Seattle have the edge over Detroit and Minnesota because those two teams have brutal schedules going forward. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has some easier games against New Orleans, Carolina, Philadelphia, St. Louis, and San Diego, with only a trip to Denver and two games against Atlanta as games against likely playoff teams.

Studs

RB Doug Martin: Rushed for 251 yards (171 after contact) and 4 touchdowns on 25 carries, 12 broken tackles, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 3 pass block snaps, caught 4 passes for 21 yards on 5 attempts

RG Jamon Meredith: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 19 yards on 3 attempts

LG Jeremy Zuttah: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 44 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts

C Ted Larsen: Didn’t allow a pressure on 35 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 70 yards and a touchdown on 1 attempt

QB Josh Freeman: 18 of 30 for 247 yards and 2 touchdowns, 3 throw aways, 1 drop, 99.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 14 of 34 drop backs (1 sack, 5 of 13, 3 throw aways)

CB Leonard Johnson: 5 solo tackles, 1 quarterback hurry on 1 blitz, allowed 6 catches for 72 yards on 13 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 1 penalty

FS Ronde Barber: Allowed 3 catches for 19 yards on 4 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hurry on 7 blitzes

LE Michael Bennett: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback hurries on 52 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 stop

Duds

ROLB Quincy Black: Allowed 6 catches for 74 yards on 6 attempts, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

DT Gerald McCoy: 1 quarterback hurry on 58 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 2 penalties

RE Daniel Te’o Nesheim: 2 quarterback hurries on 55 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Raiders

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) at Oakland Raiders (3-4)

After unimpressive wins over the Jaguars and Chiefs, the Raiders now sit at 3-4 and are somehow in the AFC playoff mix. However, they still aren’t very good. They have a point differential of -42. They got blown out in Oakland and in Miami and they weren’t impressive in either of their last 2 wins against crappy teams. They beat the Steelers in Oakland, but the Titans beat them in Tennessee. They also lost at home to San Diego and while they played the Falcons tough in Atlanta, so did the Panthers.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are at 3-4 as well, but they come from a tougher conference (the NFC is 20-12 against the AFC) and they’ve had more impressive wins. They also have a +31 points differential and they have yet to lose by more than a touchdown all year. Josh Freeman is 82 of 143 (57.3%) for 1309 yards (9.2 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in his last 4 games.

He’s a natural deep ball thrower who was afraid to throw deep last season, throwing longer than 20 yards through the air on just 6.5% of his throws, by far least in the league, despite being accurate of 52.8% of them, 3rd best in the NFL. This year, thanks to new found chemistry with free agent acquisition Vincent Jackson, he is going deep 6th most in the league, 13.5% and, more importantly, has the 3rd highest accuracy percentage, 56.7%, completing 16 of 30 for 669 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 1 drop. I believe this is here to stay.

In spite of this, Oakland is favorites here, even if only by 1 point. The yards per play method actually suggests they should be 5.5 point favorites, but the rate of sustaining drives method suggests this should be a pick em. Tampa Bay has the momentum right now, so I don’t think there’s line value either way. Tampa Bay is also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites. Teams are 86-49 ATS in this spot since 2011. They host San Diego next week.

Meanwhile, Oakland is in a bunch of bad spots here as favorites. Bad teams in general struggle as favorites and I think they are a bad team. Demonstrating this, the Raiders are actually 9-27 ATS as favorites since 2003, going back to the year after their last winning season. Furthermore, home favorites are 146-225 ATS before being dogs in 3+ straight since 1989, which makes sense since those teams to be bad teams. Oakland’s next 3 games send them to Baltimore, home for New Orleans, and to Cincinnati.

Speaking of that Baltimore game, they could be 10 point dogs there. Teams are 25-48 ATS as favorites before being 10+ dogs since 2002. Again, bad teams are bad as favorites. When they are coming off another game in which they were dogs, that record is 17-34 ATS. This goes well with the sandwich game trend. Favorites are 81-117 ATS before and after being dogs since 2008.

Teams are also just 2-10 ATS as favorites before being 10+ dogs after a win as dogs since 2002. That expands to 8-21 ATS since 1989. They could also be just 7+ dogs next week, but it wouldn’t make much difference. Since 1989, teams are 29-57 ATS as favorites after being dogs before being 7+ dogs, 13-31 ATS after a win as dogs.

These are all variations of the sandwich game trend and they demonstrate the fact that bad teams struggle as favorites. We’re getting points with the better team here, I believe. All of the trends are against Oakland. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is rested off Thursday Night football. Teams are 114-93 ATS on Sunday Night after Thursday Night. They’re also in their 2nd straight road game. This tends to be a good spot. Teams are 191-138 ATS in their 2nd straight road game since 2008, including 94-61 ATS in their 2nd straight as road dogs and 30-19 ATS off a win as road dogs. It’s strongest with road dogs off a road loss, but there’s a trend in this situation here too.

This would be a bigger pick if we were getting line value. This line shifted 2 points in the last week because of Tampa Bay’s strong showing on Thursday Night Football and Tampa Bay is a public dog this week. However, I still like the Buccaneers. Instead of putting 3 units on the spread and 1 on the money line, I’m putting all 4 on the money line. It’s not worth the extra 15 cents to get protection from a one point loss.

Public lean: Tampa Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Oakland covers)

Sharps lean: TB 14 OAK 4

Final update: Another sharps lean lining up with one of my big picks. Good to see. I think I’ll add a unit. I feel really good about this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Oakland Raiders 20 Upset Pick +105 5 units

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +1 (-110) 0 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade CB Aqib Talib to the New England Patriots

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Buccaneers, Offseason Moves 2012, Patriots

Trade for Patriots: I absolutely love this trade for the Patriots. They desperately need cornerback help. They have a few young cornerbacks, but none of them are playing well. Tom Brady is 35 so their Super Bowl window is closing. They need a short term solution so they don’t have to rely on developmental cornerbacks like Alfonzo Dennard, Kyle Arrington, and the recently released Sterling Moore. This might be the missing piece in their Super Bowl puzzle. They were contenders before this trade, but now, they’re even deadlier as they’ve upgraded one of their only weaknesses. Any time you can potentially acquire the missing piece to a Super Bowl team, it’s a good trade, especially for a mid round pick.

The Buccaneers gave up on Talib because he’s in a contract year and because of his off the field issues, but he’s still a proven cornerback. He’s still got 2 more games left on his suspension for adderall, but the Patriots will have him around for the stretch run which is what matters. He will start opposite Devin McCourty, who will probably be moving back to cornerback when Patrick Chung returns and help a pass defense that ranks 29th against the pass right now. Between McCourty (a better cornerback than safety), Talib, Patrick Chung (when he returns), and talented rookie Alfonzo Dennard, this secondary is going to look a lot better in a couple of weeks than it does now and shore up their only real weakness.

In 2010, he allowed 35 of 59 (59.3%) for 502 yards (8.5 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while deflecting 7 passes and committing 2 penalties. In 2011, he allowed 28 of 51 (54.9%) for 479 yards (9.4 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 6 penalties. This year, he’s allowed 24 of 36 (66.7%), 399 yards (11.1 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, while deflecting 6 passes and committing 2 penalties. Getting Talib and a 7th round pick for a 4th round pick is yet another one of Bill Belichick’s smart bye low deals. The difference between a 4th round pick and a 7th round pick is barely anything, especially for a team like the Patriots who frequently find contributors in the 6th and 7th round.

Grade: A

Trade for Buccaneers: Greg Schiano has made it a point to makeover the team and the locker room culture since being hired before this season. Getting rid of Talib is yet another part of that and so far, it’s worked. This was a talented team that won 10 games in 2010 and they started 4-2 last year before Raheem Morris lost control of the team. Schiano seems to have gotten it back and the Buccaneers are playing well, sitting at 3-4 with a +32 points differential. They probably won’t make the playoffs this season, which is why they could get rid of Talib, who probably would not be back after the season, so this move makes sense. It also gives them a chance to see if young cornerbacks Leonard Johnson and EJ Biggers can be long term starters. I like this move for both sides, but I think the Patriots got the better end.

Grade: A

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