Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers

Last week: 19 (+6)

Record: 3-4

A preseason underrated team of mine, the Buccaneers are now 3-4 with a +31 points differential and they have yet to lose by more than a touchdown all year. Josh Freeman is 82 of 143 (57.3%) for 1309 yards (9.2 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in his last 4 games. He’s a natural deep ball throw who had been afraid to throw deep last season, throwing longer than 20 yards through the air on just 6.5% of his throws, by far least in the league, despite being accurate of 52.8% of them, 3rd best in the NFL. This year, thanks to new found chemistry with free agent acquisition Vincent Jackson, he is going deep 6th most in the league, 13.5% and, more importantly, has the 3rd highest accuracy percentage, 56.7%, completing 16 of 30 for 669 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 1 drop. I believe this is here to stay. They’re a sleeper team.

Studs

RB Doug Martin: Rushed for 135 yards (97 after contact) and a touchdown on 29 carries, 5 broken tackles, caught 3 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 2 drops, 1 penalty

RT Demar Dotson: Did not allow a pressure on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

CB Leonard Johnson: Allowed 4 catches for 49 yards on 7 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 interception, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

FS Ronde Barber: 9 solo tackles, 2 assist, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle, 3 quarterback hurries on 6 blitzes, did not allow a completion on 1 attempt

LE Michael Bennett: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 39 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

P Michael Koenen: 8 kickoffs, 7 touchbacks, 74.5 yards per kickoff, 22.0 opponents average starting distance, 6 punts for 281 yards, 1 inside 20, 3 returns for 31 yards, 41.7 net yards per punt

Duds

LT Donald Penn: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 39 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 11 yards on 5 attempts

CB EJ Biggers: Allowed 7 catches for 125 yards on 10 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackle

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Buffalo Bills: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers

Last week: 24 (-4)

Record: 3-4

I thoroughly enjoyed last week’s Bills/Titans game between the two worst defenses in the league. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Hasselbeck looked like franchise quarterbacks. Chris Johnson looked like it was 2009. I thought the Bills lost the game in the first half when they settled for a field goal instead of going for a field goal and then they eventually lost because Ryan Fitzpatrick decided to throw an interception when all they had to do was run the clock out with CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson, who the Titans couldn’t stop all game.

Studs

RB CJ Spiller: Rushed for 70 yards (27 after contact) on 12 attempts, 3 broken tackles, caught 6 passes for 32 yards on 6 attempts

RB Fred Jackson: Rushed for 71 yards (45 after contact) on 9 attempts, 4 broken tackles, caught 8 passes for 49 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts, 1 drop

LG Andy Levitre: Did not allow a pressure on 39 pass rush snaps, run blocked for 64 yards on 7 attempts

CB Stephon Gilmore: Allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 3 attempts, 3 solo tackles

DT Kyle Williams: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

WR Brad Smith: 2 kickoff returns for 109 yards and a touchdown, 1 catch for 5 yards on 1 attempt on 4 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch

Duds

RT Erik Pears: 4 quarterback hits on 39 pass rush snaps, 2 penalties

LT Chris Hairston: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 39 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 12 yards on 2 attempts

CB Justin Rogers: Allowed 7 catches for 68 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LE Mario Williams: Did not record a pressure on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

DT Marcell Dareus: Did not record a pressure on 31 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

MLB Kelvin Sheppard: 1 solo tackle, 3 assists, 1 stop, allowed 1 catch for 3 yards on 1 attempt

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers

Last week: 25 (-1)

Record: 2-4

So apparently you can shove a receiver out of bounds and that’s not PI, but if he comes back in bounds and catching a game tying touchdown, that’s a penalty. I picked the Buccaneers last week, so obviously I was pissed about that. That and Vincent Jackson going for 96 yards, not scoring a touchdown, and then Greg Schiano running up the middle on 4 straight plays with a 250 pound back and not getting any points. Between the Jim Harbaugh safety decline, the Lions’ backdoor cover, and the Cowboys front door cover, I was not happy about last week, my first losing week since week 3. Yeah, I know. Wah. Wah.

Studs

RB Doug Martin: Rushed for 85 yards (79 after contact) and a touchdown on 16 attempts, 9 missed tackles, caught 3 passes for 37 yards on 3 attempts

LT Donald Penn: Did not allow a pressure on 50 pass block snaps, run blocked for -1 yard on 1 attempt

LG Carl Nicks: Did not allow a pressure on 50 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 4 attempt

C Jeremy Zuttah: Did not allow a pressure on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 50 yards on 7 attempts

WR Vincent Jackson: Caught 7 passes for 216 yards and a touchdown on 12 attempts on 48 pass snaps, 14.8 YAC per catch

LOLB Lavonte David: 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 4 catches for 31 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection

FS Ronde Barber: Allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 5 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1 missed tackle

Duds

CB Eric Wright: Allowed 7 catches for 147 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

CB Brandon McDonald: Allowed 5 catches for 79 yards on 5 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

LE Michael Bennett: Did not record a pressure on 33 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

RE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim: 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Vikings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2)

As I like to mention every week, the rule of thumb on Thursday Night is to take the home team. Home teams are 68-49 ATS in the history of Thursday Night football. It makes sense. On a short week, all the time to prepare, practice, and rest is incredibly valuable and when you have to travel on a short week, that takes away some of that time and puts you at an obvious disadvantage.

As I often point out, however, this effect is usually nullified when the road team is a favorite. Road favorites generally tend to be more veteran, experienced teams and more veteran, experienced teams also tend to have an advantage in preparation on a short week, for obvious reasons. This effect tends to nullify the effect of having to travel for road favorites. As a result, road favorites are 23-22 ATS in the history of Thursday Night Football. What this does do is give us an even stronger trend with home favorites. Home favorites are 45-26 ATS on Thursday Night.

The one exception to that tends to be divisional home favorites. This also makes some sense. Part of the reason why travelling on a short week hurts you is because it cuts into your time to prepare for the opposing team. Well, if the opposing team is a familiar division foe, this doesn’t have as much of an effect. Divisional home favorites are just 17-16 ATS on Thursdays and divisional road favorites are 8-10 ATS.

This week, we are getting a non-divisional home favorite on Thursday Night, which happens to be the strongest trend of all. You’re the better team. Your opponent has to travel. And your opponent is unfamiliar with you and doesn’t have as much time to prepare for you as you have to prepare for them. Teams in this spot are 28-10 ATS in the history of Thursday Night Football.

However, I’m not as excited to be able to use this trend as I thought it would be. The issue is that Minnesota, while they are home favorites, is also a young team. Both of these teams are young. Given that I believe the advantage favorites have on Thursday Nights stems from them being experienced and veteran and more prepared to deal with a short week, it hurts that Minnesota is a young team. We don’t really know how they’ll react to a short week, even against an equally young opponent.

Minnesota is, in fact, the better team here, so this line of -6.5 is reasonable. Actually, it’s kind of eerie how reasonable it is. I use two methods of determining line value. I use yards per play differential (yards per play minus yards per play allowed) and rate of sustaining drives differential (how often on any given set of downs you achieve a first down or a score minus how often you opponent does so).

I think these two work together well. Yards per play differential overvalues teams that get a lot of big plays, but can’t sustain drives and undervalues methodical offenses (and vice versa for the defense), while the rate of sustaining drives metric overvalues teams that are the exact opposite, methodical, but lack explosion.

Minnesota’s yards per play differential is 0.4, while Tampa Bay’s is -0.2. That translates to a “real” line of -7 (take the difference between the two differentials, divide by .15 and add 3 for homefield). Meanwhile, Minnesota’s rate of sustaining drives differential is 2.8%, while Tampa Bay’s is -2.0%. Take the difference, divide this time by 1.5, and add 3 for homefield, and you get a real line of -6. Average those two and you get -6.5, so there’s not really any line value either way. If there is one way, it’s towards Minnesota slightly, because Tampa Bay is missing arguably their top pass rusher Adrian Clayborn and their top cornerback Aqib Talib, while Minnesota isn’t missing anyone of note.

Two other things work against Tampa Bay. One is how close and down to the wire their game was last week. They didn’t go to overtime with the Saints, but they almost did. Teams are 3-14 ATS on Thursdays after an overtime game. Part of that is being exhausted from playing an extra period and then having to play again in 3 days, but some of that is the mental exhaustion of playing such a close game. The physical exhaustion won’t be as big of an issue this week because it didn’t actually go to overtime, but they could be in a bad spot mentally off such a close loss to a divisional opponent.

The other is just the rate of which underdogs have been covering this year. Dogs are 63-39 ATS on the season. You might think, that’s a reason to take the dog, but eventually that’s going to even out. Dating back over the last decade, dogs or favorites have not finished more than 10 games over .500 over the course of an entire year. It’s smart to ride the correction going forward and take more favorites than dogs, particularly favorites that are not publicly backed because those teams covering would have a double benefit for odds makers. It would allow the dogs/favorites disparity to even out and also they’d make money. In this one, there’s not a significant public lean either way and I think you’d have to be crazy this week to take a public dog (with one possible exception, which I’ll get into later this week).

I tried to pick as many favorites as I could last week. I just didn’t like a lot of them. This week, I do like a lot more, so I’ll pick more favorites this week, starting with this game, even if it isn’t a big play. Last week, favorites were 7-6 ATS, which looks like the start of a correction. It might not look like it totally, but remember, favorites were 12-1 SU. 5 of those covers were backdoor, including two ridiculous ones: Jim Harbaugh’s declining a safety on Thursday Night and the Lions driving for a backdoor cover with 30 seconds left on Monday Night against a 6.5 point spread when they hadn’t scored all night (both went against me on two instances I actually did pick favorites).

I’m afraid to put more than 2 units on Minnesota because they are young, but Minnesota should be the right side. I also, as always, like the under on Thursday Night. Unprepared teams, which teams who play on Thursday Night are, tend to see the negative effects more offensively than defensively. The under is 51-70 on Thursday Night all time. I especially like the under this week because both teams are young.

Public lean: Minnesota (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tampa Bay covers)

Minnesota Vikings 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: Minnesota -6.5 (-110) 2 units

Total: Under 42.5 (-110) 1 unit

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New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Saints

New Orleans Saints (1-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3)

The Saints got their first win 2 weeks ago at home on Sunday Night Football over the Chargers, but their problems are far from solved. They still have a horrific defense, which is a contributing factor to them ranking 26th in the league in yards per play differential and 23rd in rate of sustained drives differential. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, actually ranks 22nd and 25th in those two statistics, which means they match up pretty evenly with the Saints. However, they are still home underdogs here.

I’d like to go into the Buccaneers’ two rankings in those. Before last week’s blowout win over the Chiefs, they ranked significantly lower in both of those categories. I hate putting too much stock into one game, but I do feel like where they were before last week wasn’t a great indicator of the type of team they were. After all, they were just 4 games into the season and I had this as an underrated team heading into the season. I picked against them last week because of how poor they were in those two categories and obviously now I really regret giving up on a preseason underrated team of mine.

Let me get into why I thought they were underrated. In 2010, everything went right for this team. They had an easy schedule and went 9-1 against sub .500 teams (1-5 against everyone else). They turned the ball over just 19 times and, after regressing 6 wins from 2008 to 2009, predictably bounced back. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season. The Buccaneers did that and more, going from 3 to 10 wins.

However, in 2011, they predictably declined. Like teams that regress by a big win total, teams that improve by a big win total also tend to go the other direction in the following season. Teams that improve 7 games win an average of 4.5 fewer games the following season. The Buccaneers are very familiar with this principle, going from 9 wins in 2008 to 3 in 2009 to 10 in 2010.

It was easy to see how they’d do it. They turned the ball over less than 20 times in 2010, which is an unsustainable stat for a team without a true elite quarterback. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. They also had a much tougher schedule and proved in 2010 that they couldn’t beat tough competition.

The Buccaneers ended up regressing more than 4.5 wins. They regressed 6 wins and turned the ball over a whopping 40 times, going 4-12 and losing their last 10 after quitting on Head Coach Raheem Morris. They went from playing 6 games against teams that were .500 or better to 11 and didn’t improve, going 2-9 in those 11 games.

There was definitely reason to be optimistic for the Buccaneers this season. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season and teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more have averaged 9.74 fewer turnovers the next season and have won 1.61 more games. Raheem Morris is gone and is replaced with a much more disciplinarian Head Coach in Greg Schiano and the team finally spent money in the offseason. Though they overpaid each one of them, I had no doubt that the trio of Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, and Eric Wright, overall, will have a positive impact on this team in 2012, as would several rookies and the return of Gerald McCoy from injury.

I also expected the new coaching staff to bring discipline to a team that missed the most tackles of any team since they started keeping the stat in 2011. Remember, this team had the 9th ranked defense in the league in 2010, allowing 19.9 points per game. I didn’t expect them to be that good, but fewer missed tackles, additions, bounce back years, maturation of young players, an easier schedule, and fewer turnovers from the offense (which puts a ton of pressure on the defense) should have helped this defense be more middle of the pack and right now they rank 12th in points per game allowed.

I was wrong to give up on this preseason underrated team and for that reason, I don’t think it’s an overreaction to one game that I like this team once again. I don’t see how they are 5.5 points worse than the Saints on a neutral field (3 point for homefield advantage). Besides, the Saints struggle on the road even when they’re playing well, going 5-10 ATS as road favorites since 2010. They were road favorites in Tampa Bay last year and lost straight up as well, despite finished 13-3, so I don’t see why that can’t happen again this year. However, the public seems to see it differently as there’s a very heavy public lean on New Orleans. I love fading the public, especially on heavy leans.

This would be a bigger play, but I’m worried about New Orleans coming off a bye. Road favorites off a bye are 75-46 ATS since 2002, however just 34-25 ATS in the division, which isn’t as strong. Besides, I don’t even think the Saints deserve to be road favorites, considering how they’ve played this year and how they normally struggle on the road. I’m certainly not going to take the Saints as road favorites against a team I’m not sure they’re better than. Finally, the Buccaneers are 11-4 in the last 2 years against teams who finish worse than .500. This year, they’ve followed that trend, beating Kansas City and Carolina, but losing to Dallas, Washington, and the Giants. The Saints could easily end up under .500 this year.

Public lean: New Orleans (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tampa Bay covers)

Sharps lean: NO 16 TB 10

Final update: Slight sharp lean on New Orleans, but Jimmy Graham has been ruled out for the Saints. I’m sticking with Tampa Bay for a small play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 New Orleans Saints 24 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +2.5 (-110) 2 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers

Last week: 29 (+5)

Record: 2-3

I had the Buccaneers as a preseason underrated team for reasons I’ll repeat in a minute, but I had them overrated and picked against them last week because they ranked dead last in the league in yards per play differential. Now, after just one week, they rank 22nd because of their blowout victory over the Chiefs and they also rank 26th in rate of sustaining drives differential. I hate to put too much stock into one game, but I did think the Buccaneers were underrated to begin with.

This doesn’t really matter in the long run because I don’t think they’ll make the playoffs either way, but it matters by my picks purposes. Last year, they had a poor turnover differential. Teams tend to bounce back after that type of season. They won 6 games fewer than the year before, also is often a precursor to a bounce back season. They also fired their Head Coach, who the team quit on in the middle of a 10 game losing streak that took them from 4-2 and in 1st in the division to last place. Finally, they added several talented players through free agency and the draft and got several key players back from injury. We’ll see how they do going forward.

Studs

QB Josh Freeman: 15 of 26 for 328 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception, 3 drops, 1 thrown away, 1 batted pass, 100.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 5 of 28 drop backs, (1 scramble, 1 sack, 3 of 3)

LT Donald Penn: Did not allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt

LG Carl Nicks: Did not allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 51 yards on 6 attempt

WR Mike Williams: Caught 4 passes for 66 yards and 2 touchdowns on 8 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 4.3 YAC per catch

WR Vincent Jackson: Caught 4 passes for 113 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 13.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Eric Wright: Allowed 3 catches for 21 yards on 6 attempts, 2 pass deflections

FS Ronde Barber: Allowed 2 catches for 13 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection

SS Mark Barron: Allowed 1 catch for 19 yards on 1 attempt, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

Duds

RG Jamon Meredith: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 5 attempts

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Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)

The Chiefs are more than a field goal underdog here against a Tampa Bay team that isn’t very good and yet the public still likes Tampa Bay this week. This is because the public sees Kansas City as a joke. As much as I love to fade the public in general, I especially disagree with the public assessment of Kansas City this week. They rank 21st in the league in yards per play differential, as opposed to dead last where Tampa Bay ranks.

Given the difference between these two teams’ differential, the “real” line (calculated by taking the difference, dividing by .15 and adding 3 points either for home field) should be -5.5 in favor of Kansas City, meaning we’re getting a whopping 10 points of line value. Even if that sounds ridiculous (and it kind of does to me), know that in order for this line to be valid, Tampa Bay would either have to rank 17th in yards per play differential or Kansas City would have to rank -0.2 yards per play worse than dead last. We’re getting line value with Kansas City, even if you don’t agree it’s 10 points worth.

The reason Kansas City’s yards per play differential is so much better than their record and points differential is turnovers. The Chiefs have a ridiculous -15 turnover differential just 5 games into the season, meaning they’re losing the turnover battle by an average of 3 per game. They’re on pace to be -48 in turnovers, which would surpass the NFL record by 18, a record that’s stood since 1965. They’re not going to continue on this pace. Even if they break that record and finish with say a turnover differential of -31, that’s an average of -1.6 per game the rest of the way, which is only half as bad as what they’ve done through 5 games. Basically, even if the Chiefs break a 47 year old record, they’ll still be noticeably improved going forward. That’s why they’re undervalued.

I don’t even think they’ll break that record. They could, but they probably won’t. Turnover differentials tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. If you look at every possible turnover differential that a team can have, teams in each group tend to average a turnover differential of about +0.0 the following week, no matter how good or bad they were in this area the following week. You can see more, here.

One area where the Chiefs have been especially bad in so far is fumbles. They’ve lost 10 fumbles this year, but they’ve only fumbled 13 times total, which isn’t as bad. Historically numbers will show that recovering fumbles once they’re on the ground is more luck than skill and this tends to even out over time. Even if they continue to fumble 2.6 times per game going forward, which is probably not going to happen, you can expect them to only lose 1.3 per game, rather than the 2 per game they’ve lost thus far. That will make a noticeable difference in their turnover differential.

Another area they’ve been bad in so far is interceptions as they lead the league with 9. This is more skill than fumbles, so it’s not as likely to continue, but maybe a quarterback switch from Matt Cassel to Brady Quinn will have a positive impact. As bad as Quinn has been in his career, his interception rate of 2.5% is pretty average. Through 5 games, Matt Cassel was at 5.1%. If Quinn can even be his career average, it would be more than a 2 times improvement over what we’ve seen from them through 5 games.

The other issue they’ve had is forcing turnovers. They’ve forced just 4 this season, including just 1 fumble. However, they have forced 7 fumbles, but have only managed to recover 1 (ironically it was on special teams). If they continue to force fumbles at this rate, they can be expected to recover roughly .7 fumbles per game, which is an improvement of 350% and a half fumble per game over what they’ve done through 5 games.

They’re also just forcing .6 interceptions per game, but remember who their competition has been: Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, and Joe Flacco. With the exception of Fitzpatrick, none of those quarterbacks throw many interceptions anyway. Last year, they combined to throw an interception on 2.8% of their throws, including a career outlier year by Philip Rivers in interception rate. Facing Kansas City this year, they’ve thrown an interception on 2.2% of their throws. That’s not so awful on Kansas City’s. This week, they face Josh Freeman, whose career interception rate is 3.5%, including 4.0% last year.

If their interception rate cuts in half going forward and they force the same amount of fumbles and fumble with the same frequency going forward, they can be expected to force 6.6 interceptions (unchanged rate), recover 7.7 opponents’ fumbles, lose 14.3 of their own fumbles, and throw 9.9 interceptions going forward, a turnover differential of -11 in their final 11 games, or -1 per game, or a 300% improvement.

That’s not unrealistic. In fact, that’s assuming they don’t play any better, doing things like fumbling less overall, forcing more fumbles, etc., which they could. In fact, history might suggest they will (see the link I posted earlier and the link I will post again soon). It’s also not taking into account what should be a higher rate of forcing interceptions as their competition gets easier. This is a really in depth look into why I don’t put a ton of stock into turnovers. Again, here is the general.

Turnovers aside, Kansas City hasn’t been nearly as bad as people think this year. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is horrendous. I don’t think that’s a secret or anything, but they are dead last in yards per play differential and we’re getting a lot of line value with Kansas City no matter how you look at it. Kansas City is also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites with their next game being at home against Oakland. Teams are 73-48 ATS in this spot since 2011, including 20-8 ATS off a loss as dogs. The Chiefs do have a bye in between, which weakens the trend a bit, but dogs before a bye who will be favorites after the bye are 52-33 ATS since 1989, so there’s still a trend.

Meanwhile, non-conference dogs of 3+ before being divisional dogs are 23-46 ATS since 2002 and Tampa Bay faces New Orleans next week. Tampa Bay is in a good spot as non-divisional favorites after a bye. Teams are 89-62 ATS in that situation since 2002, but since 1989 (I had to go back there to get enough data), teams are just 15-20 ATS in that situation when their next game is one in which they will be divisional dogs. I considered this to be a co-pick of the week and a 5 unit play. Instead, I’m going with 4 units because Tampa Bay is coming off a bye, but that shouldn’t be a huge factor.

Public lean:  Tampa Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

Sharps lean: TB 12 KC 5

Final update: Sharps are afraid to bet this game in general as it’s the 2nd least picked game of the week, but I don’t have much of a problem picking the Chiefs as more than a field goal underdog. Besides, Aqib Talib has been suspended for the Buccaneers, which really hurts a pass defense that already ranks dead last in the league.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 Upset Pick +175

Pick against spread: Kansas City +4.5 (-110) 4 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers

Last week: 28 (-1)

Record: 1-3

The Buccaneers rank dead last in the league in yards per play differential and a home loss to Washington, even with their kicker imploding, solidifies them as that. Before last week’s game, Washington ranked 31st in that category. They really don’t seem improved over last season and they look headed for yet another 4 win or fewer season and I say this as someone who was a big believer in them and that they would improve before the season.

If that happens, they’ll be in an interesting position with Josh Freeman. 2013 is his contract year and he’s only really had 1 good season out of 4. I’m not saying he’s a full on bust, but he’s at least in that Jason Campbell class and they might want to invest in someone better for the future, like Washington did when Campbell’s contract was expiring (they traded for Donovan McNabb, who they cut a season later, and then eventually took Robert Griffin).

Studs

LG Carl Nicks: Did not allow a pressure on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

WR Vincent Jackson: Caught 6 passes for 100 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets on 42 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

WR Mike Williams: Caught 4 passes for 115 yards on 8 targets on 40 pass snaps, 11.0 YAC per catch

LOLB Lavonte David: 12 solo tackles, 2 assists, 8 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 4 catches for 47 yards on 4 attempts, 1 quarterback hurry on 6 blitzes

LE Michael Bennett: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle, 2 stops

K Connor Barth: 3/3 FG (47, 50, 57)

P Michael Koenen: 6 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 71.7 yards per kickoff, 19.3 opponent’s average starting distance, 6 punts for 277 yards, 4 inside 20, 3 returns for 17 yards, 43.3 net yards per punt

Duds

RB Doug Martin: Rushed for 33 yards (18 after contact) on 8 carries, 1 broken tackle, caught 2 passes for 9 yards on 4 attempts, 2 drops

C Jeremy Zuttah: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

ROLB Quincy Black: 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle, allowed 3 catches for 38 yards on 3 attempts

DT Roy Miller: Did not record a pressure on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

RE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim: 1 quarterback hurry on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Commanders

Washington Redskins (1-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)

The Buccaneers are one of the few teams I’ve had as underrated before the season that’s actually become overrated 3 weeks into it. The Buccaneers have hung tough, on the scoreboard, with the Giants and Cowboys and beat the Panthers, but they’re not playing that well. They rank dead last in the league in yards per play differential, with a -2.0. No other team has one worse than -1.0. They’ve had a tough schedule, but they’ve looked completely inept on both sides of the ball. They’re winning the turnover battle (+4), but you can’t rely on that going forward. They’ve also lost starting defensive end Adrian Clayborn for the season.

Speaking of yards per play differential, the Redskins are that team with the -1.0, ranking 31st only ahead of Tampa Bay. Robert Griffin is the real deal, but whatever little help he had to begin with is getting hurt. Brian Orakpo’s and Adam Carriker’s absence on defense has led to them getting torched defensively by the Rams and the Bengals in the last two games and Trent Williams’ and Pierre Garcon’s injuries have left Griffin running for his life and without his top receiver.

Orakpo and Carriker are done for the year and both Williams and Garcon are expected to miss this week. However, the good news for the Redskins is that the Buccaneers pass defense is atrocious. They were the league’s 31st ranked pass defense last year and they rank 29th this year. Offseason additions of Eric Wright and Mark Barron haven’t really helped, and injuries have destroyed their pass rush.

Already missing Da’Quan Bowers likely for the season, the Buccaneers lost Adrian Clayborn for the year last week. Michael Bennett and Gerald McCoy can get the quarterback on that defensive line, but that’s it. Taking Clayborn’s place this week will be Daniel Te’o-Nesheim, a career journeyman who has never done anything of note. Even though Griffin’s offensive line is horrendous, he should still be able to buy himself enough time with his mobility to get the ball to his receivers. Even without Garcon, this group of receivers should have an advantage against Tampa Bay’s defensive backs. Like they have in every game, the Redskins, who rank 1st in the league in scoring, should light up the scoreboard this week.

However, like they have in every game, the Redskins will struggle to play defense. They rank 30th in the league, allowing 33.7 points per game, .7 more than they score, and dead last in opponent’s yards per play, despite playing Andy Dalton and Sam Bradford in the last 2 weeks. Fortunately, the Buccaneers rank dead last in yards per play so they don’t have the personnel to take advantage of this easy matchup.

At the end of the day, the Buccaneers are terrible on both sides of the ball, while the Redskins struggle defensively, but can score points because Robert Griffin is incredibly talented, even with lack of help. I’ve gone into detail about these two teams’ yards per play differentials. The difference between these two teams’ differentials is 1 yard per play. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and then add 3 either way to get the “real line.” That suggests that this line should be -3.5 in favor of the Redskins. Obviously, it’s a little bit more accurate later in the season, but it’s definitely worth noting. 6 points of line value is nothing to sneeze at. I hate taking publicly backed dogs, especially when there are no applicable trends, but it’s a small play on the Redskins in this one.

Public lean: Washington (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tampa Bay covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): TB 11 WAS 3

Final update: Only game I really disagree with the sharps on (I side with the sharps on 12 of 15 this week, which makes me feel really confident). I don’t think much of Tampa Bay and at least Washington has a quarterback. I’ll go against the sharps here.

Washington Redskins 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Washington +2.5 (-110) 2 units

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