Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers

Last week: 18 (-10)

Record: 1-2

The Buccaneers are one of the few teams I’ve underrated before the season that’s actually become overrated 3 weeks into it. The Buccaneers have hung tough, on the scoreboard, with the Giants and Cowboys and beat the Panthers, but they’re not playing that well. They rank dead last in the league in yards per play differential, with a -2.0. No other team has one worse than -1.0. They’ve had a tough schedule, but they’ve looked completely inept on both sides of the ball. They’re winning the turnover battle (+4), but you can’t rely on that going forward. They’ve also lost starting defensive end Adrian Clayborn for the season. At the end of the year, look for this team to be right around where they were last year, maybe a little better.

Studs

MLB Mason Foster: 7 solo tackles, 7 stops, 1 missed tackle, 2 catches for 17 yards on 3 attempts

DT Gerald McCoy: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback pressures on 39 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 3 stops

LE Michael Bennett: 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback pressures on 37 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackles, 4 stops

Duds

QB Josh Freeman: 10 of 28 for 110 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 drops, 2 throw aways, 52.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 30 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 of 5, 1 drop)

WR Mike Williams: Caught 2 passes for 33 yards on 5 attempts on 32 pass plays, 2 drops, 4.5 YAC per catch, 2 drops

WR Vincent Jackson: 1 catch for 29 yards on 7 attempts on 33 pass plays, 1.0 YAC per catch

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Buccaneers bench Jeremy Trueblood

stevenlourie Buccaneers, News

Jeremy Trueblood was one of the worst starting tackles in the league in 2010, surrendering 2 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 24 quarterback hurries, while committing 4 penalties in 8 starts. He was benched down the stretch for James Lee, but resigned for starter’s money as a free agent in the 2011 offseason, signing a 2 year, 10 million dollar deal. Trueblood was even worse in 2011, starting 15 games, allowing 4 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 50 quarterback hurries (most in the league), while committing 7 penalties. This past offseason, he was forced to take a pay cut to stay on the roster, to 4.25 million from 5.25 million, but he was still being paid like a starter.

He started the opener and surrendered a quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries and then missed last week with an ankle problem. Now it appears he will continue to not start as he’s been benched permanently for Demar Dotson, who started in his absence last week. Dotson allowed just 1 quarterback hurry in that start, but he’s still inexperienced and went undrafted in 2009, so it’s unclear if he’ll continue to be the answer for the Buccaneers. If not, the Buccaneers could definitely turn to the draft to find a new starting right tackle, with Trueblood being a free agent this offseason and Dotson being owed a non-guaranteed 1.5 million in 2013.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers

Last week: 17 (-1)

Record: 1-1

The Buccaneers have the league’s worst 2.2 yards per differential, allowing 7.2 yards per play and gaining 5.0 yards per play. So how are they 1-1 with a close loss to the Giants? Well, having the 2nd best turnover differential in the NFC, +3, has something to do with it, as do 124 yards and a touchdown on 5 interception returns. Another part of it is just that opponents have passed 84 times, to 38 runs against them and passes tend to average more per attempt, though it’s less consistent yardage than run plays. The Buccaneers have run 58 times to 52 passes. Typically, it’s very tough to continue to win on a regular basis if you lose the yardage battle, but it’s only 2 games so I’m not putting too much stock into yards per play yet and a lot of it does can be explained by play selection. Next up for the Buccaneers is a game in Dallas that will give us some insight on what to expect from this team going forward.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Studs

WR Vincent Jackson: 5 catches for 128 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, 3.0 YAC per catch

SS Mark Barron: Allowed 2 catches for 16 yards on 6 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes

LE Michael Bennett: 1 quarterback hit and 8 quarterback pressures on 50 pass rush snaps, 1 assist and 1 missed tackle

Duds

RB Doug Martin: Rushed for 66 yards (43 after contact) and a touchdown on 20 carries, broke 1 tackle, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 4 pass block snaps, did not catch a pass on 1 target, 1 drop

FS Ronde Barber: Allowed 4 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop

RE Adrian Clayborn: 2 quarterback pressures on 52 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Giants

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1)

I had the Buccaneers as one of my underrated teams coming into the season. In 2010, everything went right for this team. They had an easy schedule and went 9-1 against sub .500 teams (1-5 against everyone else). They turned the ball over just 19 times and after regressing 6 wins from 2008 to 2009, predictably bounced back. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season. The Buccaneers did that and more, going from 3 to 10 wins.

However, in 2011, they predictably declined. Like teams that regress by a big win total, teams that improve by a big win total also tend to go the other direction in the following season. Teams that improve 7 games win an average of 4.5 fewer games the following season. The Buccaneers are very familiar with this principle, going from 9 wins in 2008 to 3 in 2009 to 10 in 2010. It was easy to see how they’d do it. They turned the ball over less than 20 times in 2010, which is an unsustainable stat for a team without a true elite quarterback. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. They also had a much tougher schedule and proved in 2010 that they couldn’t beat tough competition.

The Buccaneers ended up regressing more than 4.5 wins. They regressed 6 wins and turned the ball over a whopping 40 times, going 4-12 and losing their last 10 after quitting on Head Coach Raheem Morris. They went from playing 6 games against teams that were .500 or better than 11 and didn’t improve, going 2-9 in those 11 games. There is definitely reason to be optimistic for the Buccaneers this season. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season and teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more have averaged 9.74 fewer turnovers the next season and have won 1.61 more games. Raheem Morris is gone and is replaced with a much more disciplinarian Head Coach in Greg Schiano and the team finally spent money in the offseason. Though they overpaid each one of them, there’s no doubt that the trio of Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, and Eric Wright, overall, will have a positive impact on this team in 2012.

Their young defense should be better with another year of experience and they could get a bounce back year from Aqib Talib. They also get Gerald McCoy back from injury. McCoy is an incredibly valuable player when healthy. When he’s been in the lineup over the past 2 years, they’re 11-8 and allow 22.1 points per game. When he’s not, they’re 3-12 and allow 30.2 points per game. That’s obviously not all him, as those numbers are skewed because he missed most of his time last season when they had a tougher schedule and committed more turnovers. However, the 3rd pick in the 2010 NFL Draft is still a great player and they really missed him when he got hurt last season.

Eric Wright, though he was not worth his giant contract, will be an upgrade at cornerback over Ronde Barber, who has been moved to safety. They also add rookie safety Mark Barron to an improved defensive backfield and rookie linebacker Lavonte David to one of the worst linebacking corps in the NFL last year. The new coaching staff will also bring discipline to a team that missed the most tackles of any team since they started keeping the stat. Remember, this team had the 9th ranked defense in the league in 2010, allowing 19.9 points per game. They probably won’t be that good, but fewer missed tackles, additions, bounce back years, maturation of young players, an easier schedule, and fewer turnovers from the offense (which puts a ton of pressure on the defense) should help this defense be more middle of the pack.

Offensively, they have the additions of Carl Nicks and Vincent Jackson, as well as potential bounce back years from Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount, key parts of their 2010 team. They also add running back Doug Martin in the first round of the draft. Gone is Kellen Winslow, but that might be a good thing. Of Freeman’s 22 interceptions, 9 were targeted for Winslow, most in the league. Davin Joseph is also gone for the year with injury, but he’s one of the most overrated players in the league so that’s not a huge deal. Josh Freeman probably won’t have the 25 touchdowns to 6 interceptions he had in 2010, but he probably won’t have the 16 touchdowns to 22 interceptions he had last year.

In the opener, they not only proved me right, but they showed they may actually be better than what I thought. I had them right in the middle of 4 and 10 wins at 7, but if their defense continues to play like that (remember, they were the 9th ranked defense in 2010), they’re going to be much closer to 10 wins than 4. The idea with the underrated teams was to bet them until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. They didn’t prove me wrong, but I’m starting to wonder if maybe the odds makers caught up. They’re just +7 here on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs and keep in mind, they are still just 3-14 against teams that finish with a record of .500 or better, which the Giants almost definitely will.

For that reason, I’m pretty torn on this one. They may still be underrated, but not nearly as much as they were last week, when they were home underdogs for a Carolina team that won 6 games last year. However, the Giants are coming off an emotional loss and may come out flat in this one. Super Bowl champs are 2-6 ATS week 2 ever since the NFL started having defending Super Bowl champs play on Thursday Night Football (Wednesday Night Football this year because of some stupid political crap).

Now, the last 8 have all won that opener, but even teams that lose that game are 2-6 ATS the following week. It’s an emotional game for both sides, for the defending Super Bowl champ because they get a big celebration and get their rings and for the opponent because they want to knock off the champs, especially after watching them celebrate and get their rings. Both sides tend to be flat the following week and that could happen to the Giants this week.

However, the Giants are 7-3 ATS under Tom Coughlin as favorites after losing as a favorite. In a very similar situation last year, after having a dud week 1 performance in a multi-score loss to the Redskins, they blew out the Rams the following week as favorites. Besides, this is typically a good team in the first half of the season. They’re 40-26 ATS during the first 9 weeks of the season under Tom Coughlin, and straight up, they’re 47-18 in their first 8 games under Tom Coughlin, as opposed to 27-37 in their last 8. Plus, as I said, the Buccaneers have trouble beating .500+ teams.

So what’s my pick? I’m going with the Buccaneers to continue to prove that they’re underrated, even if they’re significantly less so than last week, and to keep this one close and within the 7 points, but to ultimately lose. The ATS trends seem to suggest that the Buccaneers will cover, even if the SU trends seem to suggest that the Giants will win outright, so that’s what I’m going with. I also am taking this opportunity to not only bet on one of my preseason underrated teams, but also to “fade” the public, something I love to do. It’s not entirely by design, but I’ve actually faded the public in every pick so far this week. It’s not a very big bet though.

Public lean: NY Giants (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tampa Bay covers)

New York Giants 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +7 (-110) 2 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Buccaneers

Last week: 22 (-5)

Record: 1-0

Before the season started, I picked the Buccaneers as an underrated team for several reasons. I’m not going to repeat myself completely, but basically free agent additions, new coaching staff, fewer turnovers, 3 starters through the draft, and guys coming back from injury and having bounce back year. Basically, I picked the Buccaneers somewhere in between the 4-12 they were last year and the 10-6 they were in 2010 and I settled on 7 wins. That might have been a little low. The defense looked night and day better from last year (thanks to a finally healthy Gerald McCoy) and they keep that up, 9 or 10 wins or more seems about right. The Buccaneers will put themselves to the test this week against the Giants and go into the game 3-14 over the last 2 years against teams that finish .500 or better.

Studs

C Jeremy Zuttah: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures allowed on 31 pass block plays, run blocked for 23 yards on 4 carries

RB Doug Martin: 95 yards (63 after contact) on 24 carries, 4 broken tackles, 4 catches for 23 yards on 4 attempts, 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures allowed on 5 pass block plays

DT Gerald McCoy: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback pressures on 36 pass rush snaps, 1 tackle and 1 stop on 12 run plays

CB Aqib Talib: Allowed 3 completions for 63 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 4 solo tackles and 2 stops on 14 run plays

LOLB Lavonte David: 1 quarterback pressure on 8 blitzes, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle on 14 run snaps, allowed 1 completion for 4 yards

P Michael Koenen: 5 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 74.6 yards per kickoff, opponent’s average starting position of 20.4 yards

Duds

RG Ted Larsen: 1 quarterback hits, 1 quarterback pressure allowed, 2 penalties, run blocked 6 times for 23 yards

RE Adrian Clayborn: 0 sacks, 0 quarterback hits, 0 quarterback pressures on 35 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle, 1 stop on 13 run snaps

FS Mark Barron: Allowed 5 completions for 91 yards and 1 touchdown on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles on 14 run snaps

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Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

Tampa Bay is one of my underrated teams. In case you haven’t been following throughout the offseason, what I attempted to do this year was identify 5 underrated and 5 overrated teams going into the season and then bet them pretty much blindly for the first few weeks of the season until the odds makers caught up or I was proven wrong. I think the Buccaneers are somewhere in between the 10 win team they were in 2010 and the 4 win team they were in 2011.

In 2010, everything went right for this team. They had an easy schedule and went 9-1 against sub .500 teams (1-5 against everyone else). They turned the ball over just 19 times and after regressing 6 wins from 2008 to 2009, predictably bounced back. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season. The Buccaneers did that and more, going from 3 to 10 wins.

However, in 2011, they predictably declined. Like teams that regress by a big win total, teams that improve by a big win total also tend to go the other direction in the following season. Teams that improve 7 games win an average of 4.5 fewer games the following season. The Buccaneers are very familiar with this principle, going from 9 wins in 2008 to 3 in 2009 to 10 in 2010. It was easy to see how they’d do it. They turned the ball over less than 20 times in 2010, which is an unsustainable stat for a team without a true elite quarterback. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. They also had a much tougher schedule and proved in 2010 that they couldn’t beat tough competition.

The Buccaneers ended up regressing more than 4.5 wins. They regressed 6 wins and turned the ball over a whopping 40 times, going 4-12 and losing their last 10 after quitting on Head Coach Raheem Morris. They went from playing 6 games against teams that were .500 or better than 11 and didn’t improve, going 2-9 in those 11 games. There is definitely reason to be optimistic for the Buccaneers this season. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season and teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more have averaged 9.74 fewer turnovers the next season and have won 1.61 more games. Raheem Morris is gone and is replaced with a much more disciplinarian Head Coach in Greg Schiano and the team finally spent money in the offseason. Though they overpaid each one of them, there’s no doubt that the trio of Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, and Eric Wright, overall, will have a positive impact on this team in 2012.

Their young defense should be better with another year of experience and they could get a bounce back year from Aqib Talib. They also get Gerald McCoy back from injury. McCoy is an incredibly valuable player when healthy. When he’s been in the lineup over the past 2 years, they’re 11-8 and allow 22.1 points per game. When he’s not, they’re 3-12 and allow 30.2 points per game. That’s obviously not all him, as those numbers are skewed because he missed most of his time last season when they had a tougher schedule and committed more turnovers. However, the 3rd pick in the 2010 NFL Draft is still a great player and they really missed him when he got hurt last season.

Eric Wright, though he was not worth his giant contract, will be an upgrade at cornerback over Ronde Barber, who has been moved to safety. They also add rookie safety Mark Barron to an improved defensive backfield and rookie linebacker Lavonte David to one of the worst linebacking corps in the NFL last year. The new coaching staff will also bring discipline to a team that missed the most tackles of any team since they started keeping the stat. Remember, this team had the 9th ranked defense in the league in 2010, allowing 19.9 points per game. They probably won’t be that good, but fewer missed tackles, additions, bounce back years, maturation of young players, an easier schedule, and fewer turnovers from the offense (which puts a ton of pressure on the defense) should help this defense be more middle of the pack.

Offensively, they have the additions of Carl Nicks and Vincent Jackson, as well as potential bounce back years from Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount, key parts of their 2010 team. They also add running back Doug Martin in the first round of the draft. Gone is Kellen Winslow, but that might be a good thing. Of Freeman’s 22 interceptions, 9 were targeted for Winslow, most in the league. Davin Joseph is also gone for the year with injury, but he’s one of the most overrated players in the league so that’s not a huge deal. Josh Freeman probably won’t have the 25 touchdowns to 6 interceptions he had in 2010, but he probably won’t have the 16 touchdowns to 22 interceptions he had last year.

The Panthers, meanwhile, are a little bit overrated right now. I agree they’ll improve their 6 wins from last season (especially since their Pythagorean Expectation was about 7.5 wins last season), but I don’t think they’re quite a playoff team yet. Cam Newton could have a bit of a sophomore slump. He won’t be bad or anything, but this was the league’s #5 scoring offense that year. He can regress while still leading a good offense, just not the elite one they had last year. It’ll be up to the defense to compensate and I don’t think they can. The addition of rookie Luke Kuechly and the return of Jon Beason from injury in their linebacking corps will help, but they’re still weak on the defensive line and in the secondary, which are more important.

The Panthers will probably be about a 7 or 8 win team this year. I think they’re a year away. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, figure to be right in that same area, between the 4 they won last year and the 10 they won in 2010. These teams are pretty evenly matched, with Carolina having the better offense and Tampa Bay having the better defense. For that reason, this line should be Tampa Bay -3 because it’s in Tampa Bay, but it’s the opposite, Carolina -3. There’s a lot of line value with Tampa Bay, an underrated team, and I like them to win a close game between evenly matched teams at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Carolina Panthers 24 Upset Pick (+115)

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +3 (-130) 3 units

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Buccaneers place Davin Joseph on IR

stevenlourie Buccaneers, News

The Buccaneers were dealt bad news when they found out that right guard Davin Joseph tore his patellar tendon and would need to be placed on season ending IR. Joseph signed a 7 year, 52.5 million dollar deal last offseason and the Buccaneers were counting on him to be a crucial part of their new conservative, run heavy, smash mouth offense. However, despite his large salary, Joseph is actually not that great. In fact, I think he’s one of the most overpaid and overrated players in the league, so this won’t be a huge loss.

Joseph was ProFootballFocus’ 56th ranked guard in 2008, 71st ranked guard in 2009, and 72nd ranked guard in 2010. Last year was actually his best year as he ranked 46th, playing above average as a pass protector. He allowed 2 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 21 quarterback pressures, while committing 4 penalties, but he was the 66th ranked guard as a run blocker. Throughout his career, the 2006 1st round pick has actually been a better pass protector than run blocker.

Ted Larsen will start in his absence, though he’s been awful in limited action in his career after being drafted in the 6th round in 2010 by the New England Patriots. Still, I don’t think it’s as big of a downgrade as it’s being made out to be. Larsen will start next to right tackle Jeremy Trueblood, an awful right tackle who led the league by allowing 50 pressures last year. However, the rest of their line is fine. Donald Penn is an above average left tackle, while new left guard Carl Nicks is one of the best in the business. He moves Jeremy Zuttah from left tackle to center, where he’s an upgrade over incumbent Jeff Faine, who was cut and still remains a free agent, for good reason.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Gerald McCoy

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Buccaneers

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, that player is defensive tackle Gerald McCoy.

Gerald McCoy was the 3rd overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft and he’s played very well when healthy. However, he’s been oft injured in his first 2 years in the league, playing just 19 of 32 possible games. When he’s healthy, the Buccaneers are 11-8 and allow 22.1 points per game and when he’s not, they’re 3-12 and allow 30.2 points per game.

That’s obviously not all him, as those numbers are skewed because he missed most of his time last season when they had a tougher schedule and committed more turnovers than they did in 2010. However, he’s a huge part of their defense and will be a big boost to them and their reigning worst defense in the league (30.9 points per game) if he can play 16 games this season.

McCoy played 695 snaps as a rookie in 2010, ranking as ProFootballFocus’ 18th ranked defensive tackle and his rating in 2011, on just 228 snaps, would have ranked 29th last year, despite his limited playing time. In his career, he has played 923 snaps. He’s had 5 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 27 quarterback pressures on 523 pass rush snaps, a very impressive 7.8% rate for his position. He has a career pass rush productivity rate of 6.5, which would have ranked 6th at his position last season.

He’s also had 25 solo tackles, 7 assists, and 21 stops, while missing just 3 tackles. His 15 run snap stops on 352 run snaps is good for a run stop rate of 4.3%, which would have ranked 38th last year, out of 44 defensive tackles. However, he was getting better against the run in 2011 before he got hurt with 6 run snap stops and 80 run stops, a rate of 7.5%, which would have ranked 14th last year, had he been eligible.

If he plays, let’s say, 800 snaps next season, and maintains his career rates, he would have 4 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, 23 quarterback pressures, 22 solo tackles, 6 assists, and 18 stops. Those would have ranked 12th, 5th, 7th, 29th, 34th, and 32nd, at his position, while playing the 8th most snaps. Heading into his 3rd year in the league, he’s obviously got the ability to get better, especially against the run, which is the weaker part of his game. He was better in 2011 than he was in 2010, especially against the run, before his injury.

While, he’s better as a pass rusher than a run stuffer, if he plays all or most of next season, he could easily break out as one of the best defensive tackles in the league and make his 1st Pro Bowl. There’s a reason that he, along with Ndamukong Suh, was the first defensive tackle drafted in the top-3 since Gerard Warren in 2001. He’s very talented.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Buccaneers, News

CB Aqib Talib

Aqib Talib was one of the best cornerbacks in the league in 2010, allowing 35 completions on 59 attempts (59.3%) for 502 yards (8.5 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while deflecting 7 passes, committing 2 penalties. If he can bounce back off a slightly disappointing 2011 season, when he allowed 28 completions on 51 attempts (54.9%) for 479 yards (9.4 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 5 deflections and committing 6 penalties, he could be worth the cornerback franchise tag, even though it’s one of the most expensive (tied for 2nd most expensive in 2012 at 10.6 million). However, Talib has a checkered off the field history, so they may not want to give him that kind of money for that reason, even on a one year “prove it” deal.

Likelihood: Unlikely

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Buccaneers’ Donald Penn out for a few weeks with a calf strain

stevenlourie Buccaneers, News

Buccaneers’ left tackle Donald Penn has a calf strain and will miss “several weeks” of Training Camp, according to the Tampa Bay Times. Donald Penn is not an elite left tackle, but he’s a solid one and the Buccaneers can’t afford to be without him once games start for real. Right tackle Jeremy Trueblood led the league in pressures allowed in the regular season last year and he would be even more lost if he had to move to the left side. Meanwhile, top backups Jamon Meredith and Demar Dotson are inexperienced. Fortunately, it doesn’t appear as if he’ll miss any real games.

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