Cardinals

Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 13 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Commanders, NFL Picks

Washington Redskins (6-4-1) at Arizona Cardinals (4-6-1)

I’ve lost money on the Cardinals in back-to-back weeks, but their price keeps dropping, so I’m going to keep buying. As a result of Arizona’s big loss in Atlanta last week, this line has dropped from 3.5 last week on the early line to 2.5 this week, a significant drop considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly. Last week’s loss in Atlanta was legitimate, but the previous week they lost by 6 in Minnesota because the Vikings had two 100+ yard return touchdowns, the first team to do that in a single game in 50 years. Those two plays resulted in at least a 17 point swing for the Vikings.

Despite their 4-6-1 record, last week was actually just the second time this season the Cardinals lost the first down rate battle and they could easily be 8-3 right now as they could have beaten New England, Los Angeles, Seattle, and Minnesota if one or two fluky things had gone their way (missed field goal against New England, punt return against Rams, blocked punt against Seattle, pick six against Minnesota). The Cardinals actually still rank 1st in first down rate differential, despite last week’s ugly loss in Atlanta. They ranked 1st in that metric last year as well.

The Redskins, meanwhile, rank 23rd in that metric thanks to a defense that is allowing the highest first down rate in the NFL. If this line had stayed at 3.5, I wouldn’t be confident in the Cardinals, but I think the price dropped appropriately for Arizona’s loss to the Falcons and I think we’re still getting good value with the Cardinals as a result. The Cardinals will be without Tyrann Mathieu this week because of injury, a huge loss for this defense, but the Redskins will be without tight end Jordan Reed, an equally big loss for Washington’s offense. As long as this line is under a field goal, I’d put money on the Cardinals again this week.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Washington Redskins 17

Pick against the spread: Arizona -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Falcons, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (4-5-1) at Atlanta Falcons (6-4)

I picked the Cardinals as 2 point underdogs in Minnesota last week and they outplayed the Vikings for most of the game, but ultimately lost 30-24 thanks to not one, but two 100+ yard return touchdowns by Minnesota, the first team to do that in a game in 50 years. The first one was a pick six from end zone to end zone, at least a 10 point swing considering the Cardinals had 2nd and goal and could have at least made a chip shot field goal if they held onto the ball. The second one was a kickoff return touchdown coming out of the half. In a 6-point loss, the 17+ point swing on those 2 plays were obviously pivotal in Minnesota’s victory. Between that game and Jacksonville/Buffalo, I had 4 return touchdowns go against me in 2 games that I had big plays on. Hopefully I will have better luck this week.

The good thing about Arizona’s loss last week is we’re getting great value with the Cardinals, as this line has shifted from 3 in favor of Atlanta to 6 in the past week. Outside of those 2 fluky plays, the Cardinals outplayed the Vikings last week and they actually rank 1st in first down rate differential on the season. That might sound crazy considering they are 4-5-1, but they still have a point differential of +36 on the season (9th best in the NFL) despite a -3 return touchdown margin. Those 3 plays, they have a point differential of +57, which would be 3rd best in the NFL. They could easily be 8-2 if not for last week’s two return touchdowns and special teams mistakes against New England, Seattle, and Los Angeles. They have won the first down rate battle in 9 of 10 games and their +67 first down differential is easily the best in the league. In terms of offensive touchdowns, their +9 differential is 4th best in the league.

This week, they get defensive back Tyrann Mathieu back from a 2-game absence with a shoulder injury. He’s a huge part of a defense that allows the lowest first down rate in the league by a good margin (over 1.5%). With Carson Palmer struggling and stud left tackle Jared Veldheer out for the season, the Cardinals’ offense is a far cry from what it was last season, but their defense is even better this year. The Falcons, meanwhile, have a great offense (2nd in first down rate), but their defense has struggled mightily (30th in first down rate allowed). Overall, they rank 8th in first down rate differential, so we’re getting a ton of value with the Cardinals at 6. The Falcons also could be without cornerback Desmond Trufant again this week and he’s easily their best defensive player.

The other good thing about Arizona’s loss last week is it put them in a good spot this week. Teams are 138-104 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 110-71 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 232-246 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.80 points per game, as opposed to 330-462 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.01 points per game. This is one of my favorite picks this week. The money line is also a great value at +200.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Atlanta Falcons 20 Upset Pick +200

Pick against the spread: Arizona +6

Confidence: High

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Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 11 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Arizona Cardinals (4-4-1) at Minnesota Vikings (5-4)

When the Vikings were 5-0 on the strength of a +11 turnover margin and a +4 return touchdown margin, two things that tend to be unsustainable, I thought they were the most overrated team in the league. Since then, they’ve lost 4 straight games. Over those 4 games, they were +1 in turnover margin and -1 in return touchdown margin, which made a huge difference and exposed one of the most stagnant offenses in the league. Now at 5-4, they’re not really overrated anymore, but we’re still getting good value with the visiting Arizona Cardinals in this game because the Cardinals have been significantly better than their record this season.

Despite a 4-4-1 record, the Cardinals rank 5th in the NFL with a +42 point differential. They also rank 1st in first down rate differential, which they also led the league in last season when they went 13-3. This year, they could easily be 7-2 if not for special teams mistakes against New England, Seattle, and Los Angeles and they have won the first down rate battle in 8 of 9 games. Despite that, we’re still getting 2 points with them in Minnesota against the Vikings, who rank 19th in first down rate differential. The Vikings are also in a tough spot as they have to turn around and play on Thursday Night Football next week on Thanksgiving. Favorites are just 50-82 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. The Cardinals are worth betting on this week, though I’d be more confident in them if I knew gametime decision Tyrann Mathieu was going to play, after missing last week with a shoulder injury.

Arizona Cardinals 20 Minnesota Vikings 16 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Arizona +2

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (1-7) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1)

The Cardinals have been one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. I didn’t bet heavily on them in their last game as 3 point underdogs in Carolina because they were coming off of a 5-quarter tie (which is usually a tough situation) and because Carolina was also underrated. I was hoping the Panthers would beat the Cardinals so we could get even better value with the Cardinals coming out of their bye in week 10. The Panthers did beat the Cardinals, 30-20, but the Cardinals also lost left tackle Jared Veldheer and cornerback Tyrann Mathieu for an extended period of time with injuries in that game. Those two are critical players for this team. On top of that, they’re still 13.5 point home favorites here because their opponents, the 49ers, have been so terrible this season, so we’re not really getting good line value with the Cardinals either, especially when you take into account their injury situation.

That being said, I’m still taking the Cardinals here. Despite their 3-4-1 record, they rank 6th in point differential and 1st in first down rate differential. Their losses to New England and Los Angeles were both very close, while their tie to Seattle could have been a win if one of a number of different things had gone their way. They have won the first down battle in 7 of 8 games and are legitimately a few plays away from being 6-2 right now, after finishing 13-3 and in first place in first down rate differential in 2015. Their offense isn’t what it was last season, but their defense has been even better. Their special teams have been problematic, but, even without Veldheer and Mathieu, this is still one of the best teams in the league.

The 49ers, meanwhile, have lost their last 7 straight by an AVERAGE of 17.29 points per game, so all of a sudden this line at 13.5 doesn’t seem so high. Just two of their losses came by fewer than two touchdowns. One of those 2 losses by less than two touchdowns was a 12 point home loss to these Cardinals week 5, even though the Cardinals were starting backup Drew Stanton in place of injured starting quarterback Carson Palmer. With Palmer back, the Cardinals should be able to win big here at home.

The Cardinals are in a tough spot as they have to turn around and play a much tougher Minnesota team next week, a game that could have significant playoff and playoff seeding implications. The Cardinals will almost definitely be road underdogs in Minnesota next week and favorites of 10 or more are just 54-73 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs, as teams can overlook significantly inferior opponents with a tough game on deck. That being said, the 49ers are also in a tough spot as they have to turn around and host the Patriots next week, a game in which they’re whopping 14.5 point home underdogs on the early line. That could be a major distraction for the 49ers. Underdogs of 10 or more are 48-79 ATS since 1989 before being underdogs of 10 or more again, while teams are 37-89 ATS since 2012 before being 4.5+ point home underdogs. There’s not quite enough here for me to be confident in putting money on the Cardinals as home favorites of this many points, but they should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 27 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Arizona -13.5

Confidence: Low

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Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 8 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (3-3-1) at Carolina Panthers (1-5)

The Cardinals are just 3-3-1, but they have played much better than their record. If not for numerous special teams mistakes against both New England and Seattle, the Cardinals would be at least 5-2 right now. In their loss to the Rams, they lost by just 4 despite losing the turnover battle by 4; turnover margin tends to be a very fluky thing week-to-week. They’re legitimately a few plays away from being 6-1 right now, after finishing 13-3 last season. They finished last season 1st in first down percentage differential and once again rank 1st in that metric, as they have a league best +45 first down margin. Their offense isn’t as good as it was last season as Palmer has not repeated the career year he had in 2015, but their defense has allowed the lowest first down percentage in the league and they still have a lot of talent on offense around Palmer.

The 1-5 Panthers are also better than their record, as 3 of their 5 losses have come by 3 points or fewer. After Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart both missed time in the early part of the season, the Panthers are relatively healthy coming out of their bye. However, this line is at 3 in favor of the Panthers at home, which suggests these two teams are even. Considering the Panthers still rank just 10th in first down percentage differential, we’re getting significant line value with the Cardinals at +3. The only reason I’m not confident enough to put money on the Cardinals is that they could be exhausted off of last week’s tie with the Seahawks. Teams are understandably just 5-11 ATS off of a tie since 1989. The Cardinals would have won easily in regulation last week if not for special teams mistakes. It’s possible their special teams ended up blowing two games at once last week, if the Cardinals can’t play their best this week, after playing 5 quarters last week.

Carolina Panthers 24 Arizona Cardinals 23

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3

Confidence: Low

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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (4-1) at Arizona Cardinals (3-3)

The Seahawks have a better record than the Cardinals, but the Cardinals have a first down percentage differential of 7.67% (best in the NFL) and a point differential of +49 (6th best in the NFL), while the Seahawks have a first down percentage differential of 3.47% (4th best in the NFL) and a point differential of +27 (10th best in the NFL). That’s despite the fact that the Seahawks have had arguably the easiest schedule in the league thus far. They’ve played the 49ers, Rams, Jets, and Dolphins, 4 of the worst teams in the NFL, and won by just 2 last week at home against the Falcons, easily their toughest opponent of the season. Arizona is even tougher and this time the game is on the road.

The Cardinals are without wide receiver John Brown, while quarterback Carson Palmer is reportedly less than 100% with a hamstring injury, but the Seahawks are missing safety Kam Chancellor, easily the biggest absence in this game. Despite that, this line is even. Considering the Cardinals are at least as good as the Seahawks, if not better, this line should be at least 3 in favor of the home team Arizona Cardinals. We’re getting great line value with the Cardinals, who have arguably the best defense in the NFL.

The Cardinals are also in a great spot coming off of a Monday Night Football 28-3 blowout victory over the Jets, as teams are 35-16 ATS since 2002 off of a Monday Night Football win by 21 or more. The Seahawks are in a good spot too though, with an easy road game in New Orleans on deck, while the Cardinals next travel to Carolina for an NFC Championship rematch from a year ago. The early line has the Seahawks as 5.5 point road favorites in New Orleans and teams are 81-57 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites of 4 or more. Still, the Cardinals are the pick here as long as the line stays under a field goal.

Arizona Cardinals 20 Seattle Seahawks 16

Pick against the spread: Arizona PK

Confidence: Medium

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New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (1-4) at Arizona Cardinals (2-3)

This is a tough one. On one hand, the Cardinals were 6.5 point favorites on the early line last week and now are 8 point favorites, so we’ve lost value with them in the last week. Meanwhile, the Jets are in a great spot in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 133-98 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 108-66 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 233-234 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.49 points per game, as opposed to 333-455 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.80 points per game.

On the other hand, the Cardinals are much better than their 2-3 record suggests and 8 might still be too low for this line, as there’s a major talent gap between these two teams. Despite their record, they still rank 4th in first down percentage differential and have a point differential of +24, 10th best in the NFL. Their offense (which ranks 13th in first down percentage) hasn’t been as good as last season, but their defense has been just as good, entering this game 6th in first down percentage allowed.

Their offense gets a boost this week with Carson Palmer returning from a one-game concussion absence, but Palmer hasn’t played nearly as well this season as last season and the Cardinals will be without both talented guards Evan Mathis and Mike Iupati with injury in this one. Even without them, Palmer still has a ton of talent around him on offense and the Cardinals are still a lot better than the Jets, who rank 30th in first down percentage differential and have one of the weakest rosters in the NFL, without stud wide receiver Eric Decker for the season and without top linebacker David Harris at least for this week. I can’t be confident in the Cardinals at 8, especially with the Jets in a good spot, but they should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 27 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: Arizona -8

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (1-3) at San Francisco 49ers (1-3)

After last week’s home loss to the Los Angeles Rams, the perception of the Cardinals right now is that the sky is falling for them. However, they’re a couple plays away from being 3-1, as two of their losses came by a combined 6 points. Their one win, meanwhile, came by 33 points. They still have a +12 point differential and rank 3rd in the NFL in first down percentage differential. Losing quarterback Carson Palmer with a concussion is a big loss, but their defense has been their best unit this season (4th in first down percentage allowed), while the offense has been more pedestrian (11th in first down percentage), largely as a result of some early season struggles by Carson Palmer. Drew Stanton is a capable backup at best and a significant downgrade, but the Cardinals still have a ton of talent around the quarterback position on offense, both at the skill positions and on the offensive line.

The 49ers also come in banged up, losing promising rookie DeForest Buckner (the 7th overall pick) for at least this week and middle linebacker NaVorro Bowman for the year. They join top cornerback Jimmie Ward on the sideline. He’ll miss his 2nd straight game. Those might be their three best defensive players. They do get top pass rusher Aaron Lynch back from a 4-game suspension, but he doesn’t offset the loss of the other guys. The 49ers already have one of the worst offenses in football and now might have one of the worst defenses in football, after it showed promise to start the season. Live will be as easy as possible for Stanton in his spot start, as his offensive supporting cast is far more talented than San Francisco’s defense. It’s a short week, which is tough, but he’s a veteran guy with experience in the system. And in the fact that the Cardinals’ defense figures to shut down Blaine Gabbert and company on a short week and the Cardinals figure to get back in the win column this week.

However, we’re not getting nearly as good of a line as I thought we would. The early line was 6 last week and I figured it would move significantly, with the Cardinals losing at home and Palmer getting knocked out, but it’s still at 3.5. That’s not a small line movement, but 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, so I’d be worried about the backdoor cover with Arizona, even in a low scoring game. The 49ers are also in a good spot as home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs, as teams are 78-53 ATS in that spot since 2002. The Cardinals are the pick, but I don’t recommend putting money on it.

Arizona Cardinals 17 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Arizona -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against significant week-to-week line movements. This game has one of them, as the Cardinals were 10.5 point favorites on the early line last week, but now are only 7.5 point favorites here at home. The reason for this is obvious, as the Cardinals lost by 15 in Buffalo last week. However, outside of a -4 turnover margin (including a return touchdown), they actually played pretty well in that game. They moved the chains at a 67.86% rate, while the Bills moved the chains at a 67.50% rate.

It’s important not to fixate on turnover margin because, even in a lopsided number like last week’s, it’s still only 4 plays out of a game which has over a hundred combined snaps on both sides of the ball. Turnover margin is also very inconsistent from week-to-week. Teams that lose the turnover battle by 4, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week. They also cover against the spread about 53.4% of the time the following week. That’s likely because the public fixates on turnover margin and ends up underrating the team. The Cardinals’ aging offense doesn’t seem quite as good as it was last season, but their defense is just as good as they were last season and they’re still 5th in rate of moving the chains differential through 3 games, after finishing 1st in that metric last season.

There’s no way the Cardinals should only be 7.5 point favorites against a Rams team that is dead last in that metric, after finishing 30th in that metric last season. The Rams are above .500 this season, starting 2-1, but that’s very misleading. They were manhandled week 1 by a San Francisco team that’s been horrible in their other 2 games and, even in better performances week 2 and week 3, they still haven’t won the rate of moving the chains battle all season. Their opponents already have 30 more first downs than they do on the season, suggesting their early record is a major fluke. These two teams are very far apart talent wise.

The Cardinals are in somewhat of a tough spot here having to turn around and play in 4 days on Thursday Night Football, but they go to San Francisco for that one, which isn’t tough at all. They figure to still be very focused for the Rams this week. Favorites are 50-73 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. However, teams are 46-35 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 6+ and favorites of 6+ are 86-49 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again. As long as this line is 9.5 or lower, this is worth putting money on.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Los Angeles Rams 10

Pick against the spread: Arizona -7.5

Confidence: Medium

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Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-2)

Earlier this off-season, the Bills looked like a legitimate candidate to make the playoffs for the first time since 1999, after coming up just short in each of the past two seasons. However, they’ve had some very bad luck since then. They’re without their first and second round picks (Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland) with injury, while top defensive lineman Marcell Dareus still has two games to go on his 4-game suspension. Talented backup running back Karlos Williams was also suspended for the first 4 games of the season, but he was so out of shape this off-season that he didn’t even make the final roster. On top of that, left tackle Cordy Glenn remains out after getting hurt week 1, talented starting cornerback Ronald Darby joins him on the sidelines this week, and #1 wide receiver Sammy Watkins could end up missing this game after being limited through the first 2 games of the season due to complications from an off-season foot surgery.

Through 2 games, the Bills have been one of the worst teams in the league, ranking 31st in rate of moving the chains differential. That’ll improve as they get guys back and it’s only been two games (they finished 19th in that metric last season), but their injury situation seems like it’s going to get worse before it gets better with Watkins and Darby expected out. This line is pretty high at 4, considering 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, but the Cardinals remain one of the top teams in the league (3rd in RMCD) and are much healthier than the Bills. They’re also much better rested, after two straight games at home to start the season. Teams are 42-30 ATS in their first road game of the season after two straight home games to start the season. As long as this line doesn’t get any higher than 4, it’s worth a bet.

Arizona Cardinals 27 Buffalo Bills 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona -4

Confidence: Medium

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