Cardinals

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 2 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-1)

The Cardinals lost in upset fashion to the Patriots last week, but could have easily won that game if they hadn’t missed a 47-yard field goal at the end of the game. They actually slightly outplayed the Patriots, moving the chains at a 80.00% rate, as opposed to 75.00% for the Patriots. This week, I think we’re getting good line value with the Cardinals, with the line shifting from 8.5 on the early line last week to 7 this week, largely as a result of Arizona’s loss. I wish we were getting 6.5 with the Cardinals and I’d need the line to be that low to put money on this one, but Arizona should be the right side even at 7.

Tampa Bay looked solid in Atlanta last week, but Atlanta has one of the least talented rosters in the NFL. The Buccaneers are better than last season, but played a very easy schedule last season and still have a lot of significant issues. Arizona, meanwhile, was one of the best teams in the league last season. They were also one of the oldest in the league, but they kept all of their key players in free agency and added both Chandler Jones and Evan Mathis, though the latter is out for this one for an injury. They still figure to be one of the better teams in the league this season and should win this one by double digits. If you can get 6.5, it’s worth a bet.

Arizona Cardinals 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona -7

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

When this line opened at 6, I was thinking I was likely going to take New England. It probably wouldn’t have been for any money, but they had a good team around the quarterback and seemed like they could have made it close. However, that changed when Rob Gronkowski was ruled out with a hamstring injury. The line moved to 7, but that doesn’t seem like nearly enough compensation, especially considering left tackle Nate Solder and right guard Jonathan Cooper are also both out.

In addition to Tom Brady, the Patriots are already missing 3 starting offensive lineman (including right tackle Sebastian Vollmer, who could be done for the year), top pass catcher Rob Gronkowski, and pass catching running back Dion Lewis. Their defense is still strong and could help them keep this one close, but they don’t look like they’d have much of a shot in a shoot out. Arizona is once again a legitimate contender with a top level offense and could easily win by over a touchdown. It’s not enough for me to put any sort of confidence on the Cardinals, but they’re my pick here.

Arizona Cardinals 27 New England Patriots 17

Pick against the spread: Arizona -7

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Many thought Cardinals’ quarterback Carson Palmer was done at this point last year. He had graded out above average in each of the last 6 seasons, but was coming off of the 2nd torn ACL of his career and going into his age 36 season, so the odds were against him. Instead, he had arguably the best season of his career, completing 63.7% of his passes for an average of 8.70 YPA, 35 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, a career high 104.6 QB rating for the 13-year veteran. His 4th place finish among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus was also a career best. He did play well in 6 games in 2014 before the injury, completing 62.9% of his passes for an average of 7.26 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, leading the Cardinals to a 73.58% rate of moving the chains in the process, but that jumped to a league best 77.23% in 2015.

It’s hard to see him repeating the best season of his career in his age 37 season, but quarterbacks like Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, and Peyton Manning have proven in recent years that you can play quarterback in today’s NFL effectively into your late 30s. You’re definitely a riskier bet in your late 30s, but Palmer still has great talent around him and is a perfect fit for Arizona’s offense, which is led by head coach and quarterback guru Bruce Arians, who has really revitalized the veteran Palmer’s career in 3 seasons together in Arizona. This is a talented team from top to bottom that has the ability to compete for a Super Bowl again in 2016, after a 13-3 season in 2015, but the bedrock of their recent turnaround has been Palmer and Arians.

Unfortunately, Palmer completely melted down in the NFC Championship game last year, completing just 23 of 40 for 235 yards, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions in a 49-15 loss in Carolina. It was easily the worst game of his season at the worst time, but one game does not define a whole season. The Cardinals finished last season 1st in rate of moving the chains differential in 2015 and enter 2016 with a similarly strong roster that has the potential to do what last year’s team couldn’t. Much depends on Palmer fighting off Father Time for one more year.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The offensive unit that’s seen the biggest improvement in recent years is the offensive line, which used to be a huge problem for many years in Arizona. The offensive line gets even better this season with the addition of veteran guard Evan Mathis. Like Palmer, Mathis’ age is becoming a concern, but he’s quietly been one of the best guards in the league over the past few seasons. Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked guard in 2015, Mathis has been a top-3 guard on in each of the past 5 seasons, the only player in the league who can say that. He should have another strong year or two left in him, but that’s obviously not a guarantee at his age. A long-time left guard, Mathis will play right guard in Arizona, a huge problem position last season.

Right tackle was a bit of a problem position in 2015 as well. The Cardinals drafted Florida offensive tackle DJ Humphries in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft, but he was a healthy scratch in all 16 games, including the 4 games in which starter Bobby Massie was suspended. Massie is gone as a free agent this off-season, so Humphries only has to beat out Earl Watford, who started in Massie’s absence last season. The 2013 4th round pick did well as a run blocker, but struggled in pass protection and shouldn’t be hard for Humphries to beat out in his 2nd year in the league; Watford has just 2 career starts and projects as a career backup. Humphries may struggle with growing pains in his first year as a starter in 2016, but he’s still only going into his age 23 season and he has tremendous upside. Massie graded out below average last season, so it wouldn’t be hard for Humphries to be an improvement.

Center was a problem position in 2015 as well and remains their only real problem position. Veteran center Lyle Sendlein has started 124 games at center in the last 9 seasons, including 15 last season, but he was not brought back ahead of his age 32 season this off-season. A solid player in his prime, Sendlein’s effectiveness has declined steadily with age and he finished last season 27th out of 39 eligible centers on Pro Football Focus. He’ll be replaced by either veteran journeyman AQ Shipley or 4th round rookie Evan Brohm.

Brohm figures to struggle if he has to play, but Shipley has flashed in limited action in his career. His longest extended stretch of playing time came in 2013 at left guard, where he struggled mightily, finishing 66th among 81 eligible guards on Pro Football Focus in 9 starts. However, he’s made 13 starts at center in 2012, 2014, and 2015 combined and graded out above average in all 3 of those seasons. It remains to be seen if he can translate that to a full season as a starting center and he becomes a full-time starter for the first time in his career in his age 30 season, but he’ll get the first shot at it. It won’t be hard for him to be better Sendlein.

The left side is where this offensive line’s biggest strength is, as recent free agent acquisitions Jared Veldheer and Mike Iupati are coming off of strong seasons at left tackle and left guard respectively. Iupati signed on a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal last off-season, coming over from divisional rival San Francisco, where he spent the first 5 seasons of his career after they drafted him in the 1st round in 2010. Iupati was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked guard in 2015 and has finished in the top-14 among guards in 5 of 6 seasons in the NFL. He was a nice addition at a reasonable rate.

Veldheer is someone they bought low on, signing him to a 5-year, 35 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, following a 2013 season in which he was limited to 5 mediocre starts by a torn biceps. That contract looks like an obvious steal now though. Aside from 2013, Veldheer hasn’t missed a game in his 6-year career and has been a top-17 offensive tackle in 2011, 2012, 2014, and 2015. He and Iupati are both going into their 7th year in the league and their age 29 season and both should have strong years again in 2016. It’s a strong and improved offensive line.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

As good as the offensive line is, the real strength of Palmer’s supporting cast is the receiving corps, as wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown all finished in the top-27 among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. Floyd made 6 starts, but Fitzgerald and Brown were essentially the starters last season, making 16 and 11 starts respectively and leading the position in snaps. Fitzgerald and Brown put up slash lines of 109/1205/9 and 65/1003/7 respectively and were one of 4 receiving duos to both top 1000 yards in 2015 (the others were Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, and Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns).

Fitzgerald’s a future Hall-of-Famer who averaged 94 catches for 1309 yards and 10 touchdowns per 16 games in the first 8 seasons of his career from 2004-2011. However, he looked on the decline heading into 2015, failing to top 1000 yards in 3 straight seasons from 2012-2014. Part of that was quarterback related, but he certainly was not the same player he used to be. He turned it around in 2015 though, finishing 8th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus and finishing 9th in the league in receiving yards as Carson Palmer’s #1 option. Even though he was below 1000 yards in 2014, he was on pace for 85 catches for 1288 yards and 5 touchdowns over 16 games in the 6 games in which Palmer played, so he and Palmer seem to make a great combination.

The only concern with Fitzgerald is his age, which is a bit of a theme on this Arizona offense. Fitzgerald is going into his age 33 season and ranks 15th all-time with 13,366 career receiving yards. However, even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. The end is closer that it seems for him, but he should have another couple strong seasons under his belt. He has hinted that he may want to retire at the same time as Carson Palmer, which is worth keeping in mind.

Brown is likely the future #1 receiver, as last year’s 1000 yard performance came in just his 2nd year in the league. The 2014 3rd round pick graded out slightly below average as a rookie, catching 48 passes for 696 yards and 5 touchdowns as the 3rd receiver, but finished 27th in 2015 and could take another step forward in his 3rd year in the league in 2016. Floyd, meanwhile, could start on pretty much any other team in the league and may be starting on another team in the league in a year, as he heads into the final year of his contract.

Floyd is probably the best #3 receiver in the league, catching 52 passes for 849 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2015 despite not playing every down, and grading out above average in each of the first 4 seasons of his career, since the Cardinals drafted him in the 1st round in 2012. He maxed out at 22nd in 2013 and finished last season ranked higher than Brown, finishing 24th. This is definitely the top trio of wide receivers in the league. If any of them get hurt, JJ Nelson would step in and he’s got upside as the 4th receiver. He flashed on 148 snaps as a 5th round rookie in 2015 and could have a significant role as soon as 2017 with Floyd heading into free agency.

The Cardinals regularly play 3 and 4 wide receivers so it’s not a huge issue, but tight end is a position of weakness. Running back David Johnson finished 4th on the team in receiving with 36 catches for 457 yards and 4 touchdowns and their top receiving tight end was Darren Fells, who finished 5th on the team with 21 catches for 311 yards and 3 touchdowns. Fells and veteran Jermaine Gresham both return and should split snaps at the position again, after both graded out below average last season.

Fells is the better pass catcher of the two, even at 6-7 281 pounds, but has just 28 catches in 2 seasons in the league. A collegiate basketball player, Fells flashed in his first career action in 2014 on 229 snaps, but fell below average in a larger role on 672 snaps in 2015. He’d be a below average starter. Jermaine Gresham is a better blocker, but he’s not good either. The veteran has 79 career starts, but has graded out below average in 4 straight seasons. It’s a position of weakness, but the fact that they have the best wide receivers in football makes up for it in a big way.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Cardinals had to go through 3 different starting running backs in 2015, after Chris Johnson and then Andre Ellington got hurt, but the 3rd time was the charm as the Cardinals appear to have discovered a future feature back in 2015 3rd round pick David Johnson. Johnson finished the season with 581 yards and 8 touchdowns on 125 carries (4.65 YPC) on the ground, along with 36 catches for 457 yards and another 4 touchdowns through the air. He made 5 starts in 16 games and finished the season as Pro Football Focus’ 25th ranked running back.

He’ll enter 2015 as the lead back, but both Chris Johnson and Ellington return healthy, so it’s unclear how much of a load he’ll carry. Johnson has 630 carries over the past 3 seasons, but has averaged just 4.05 yards per carry over that time period and is going into his age 31 season and coming off of a broken leg. Ellington, meanwhile, has a career 4.40 YPC average and 100 career catches in 3 seasons in the league, but he’s only had 364 career carries and is undersized and injury prone at 5-9 199. He’s missed 11 of 48 career games with injury and his injury issues date back to his collegiate days at Clemson University and were part of why he dropped to the 6th round in 2013. He’s nothing more than a change of pace back. David Johnson is better than both, but he’s probably not going to get 300 touches or be a true feature back just yet. He’ll still be a big part of their offense though.

Grade: B+

Defensive Line

As good as the Cardinals’ offense was last season, they couldn’t have been as successful as they were as a team without a good defense and they finished 5th in rate of moving the chains allowed. They were led by a number of star caliber players, including defensive end Calais Campbell. Campbell was Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2015, which was actually the worst season he’s had in the past 5 seasons, which just shows you how good he’s been in recent years. Still going only into his age 30 season, he should have another strong season in 2016 and he’s an obvious off-season extension candidate ahead of the final year of his contract.

The Cardinals used a first round pick to draft Mississippi defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche and he has a good shot to be the week 1 starter opposite Campbell at defensive end in this 3-4 defense. Nkemdiche spent his collegiate career inside in a 4-3, but projects as a great fit as a 5-technique defensive end in Arizona’s 3-4 at 6-3 294 pounds. Arguably a top-10 talent, character concerns and off-the-field issues dropped him to the end of the first round, but he could end up being a steal.

His only competition for the job is incumbent Frostee Rucker, who is coming off of a below average season and going into his age 33 season. He’s managed to stay in the league for 10 seasons at this point, but he’s graded out above average just twice in Pro Football Focus’ 9-year history. Nkemdiche has a shot at an every down role as a rookie, pushing Rucker into purely a reserve role behind Nkemdiche and Campbell. He’s a bit of a boom or bust prospect, but Nkemdiche figures to be an upgrade as a rookie at the very least.

Inside at nose tackle, the Cardinals are getting Corey Peters back from a torn achilles that cost him his entire 2015 season. He’s no guarantee to get the starting job back, as replacement Rodney Gunter finished just about average on 414 snaps as a 4th round rookie in 2015, while Peters isn’t exactly a great player. The 2010 3rd round pick has graded out above average just once in 6 seasons in the league, has missed 25 games with injury over that time period, and has torn his achilles twice in the past 30 months. Peters should get the first crack at the job, but Gunter looks like the future at the position. It’s a position of weakness on an overall strong defensive line.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Cardinals’ big off-season acquisition was New England edge player Chandler Jones, who they acquired for a 2nd round pick and fringe starting right guard Jonathan Cooper. At first glance, the move makes a lot of sense. Despite a strong season overall as a team, the Cardinals didn’t have a returning outside linebacker with more than 4 sacks last season, while Chandler Jones finished 5th in the NFL in sacks with 12.5 and has experience both at 4-3 defensive end and 3-4 outside linebacker, which he’ll play in Arizona.

However, Jones was not quite as good as his raw sack totals suggest, finishing 35th among edge defenders. He’s finished above average in 3 of 4 seasons in the league and does fill a major need for the Cardinals, but the Cardinals paid a steep price, especially considering he may end up being a one-year rental. The Patriots were so willing to trade him because he’s entering the final year of his rookie deal and they weren’t willing to pay him what it might cost to keep him. A deal similar to Olivier Vernon’s 5-year, 85 million dollar deal might be needed and that’s not quite worth it. A massive contract and a 2nd round pick is a lot to acquire Jones, who isn’t a top level player. With an aging core, the Cardinals seem to be going all in on the 2016 season.

Markus Golden and Alex Okafor led the position in snaps played last season and both figure to see significant roles again in 2016, even with Jones coming in. Golden figures to get the first chance to start, going into his 2nd year in the league, after grading out above average on 518 snaps as a rookie. Okafor, meanwhile, graded out below average on 613 snaps in 2015. The 2013 4th round pick has made 25 starts in 3 years in the league, but has never graded out above average, so he’s probably better off in a reserve role.

Inside, the Cardinals return both starting linebackers Deone Bucannon and Kevin Minter, who both made all 16 starts. They had opposite seasons though, as Bucannon finished 23rd among linebackers, while Minter was all the way down in 78th out of 97 eligible. A first round pick in 2014, Deone Bucannon played both linebacker and safety as a rookie, but struggled at safety and got moved full-time to middle linebacker in his 2nd year in the league in 2015, despite only being 6-1 216. In today’s NFL, you can play linebacker well at that size if you’re good enough in coverage, which Bucannon is. He could take another step forward in his 3rd year in the league and his 2nd year full-time at linebacker in 2016.

The other middle linebacker spot is probably the biggest weakness remaining on this talented defense. Minter, a 2nd round pick in 2013, graded out above average in 2014, but had never been anything more than a two-down run stopping middle linebacker who played less than half the snaps before last season and seemed overwhelmed in an every down role, particularly in coverage. Going into the final year of his rookie deal, Minter could be replaced next off-season, but they don’t have an obvious alternative on the roster. It’s a solid unit overall regardless.

Grade: B

Secondary

Along with Calais Campbell, defensive backs Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu carried this defense in 2015, particularly the latter. Mathieu was Pro Football Focus’ #2 ranked defensive back in 2015, playing both safety and slot cornerback, but tore his ACL week 15 and missed the rest of the season. Carson Palmer and the rest of the offense melting down made it basically impossible for the Cardinals to win the NFC Championship, but the Cardinals clearly missed Mathieu down the stretch and his absence definitely contributed to the Cardinals falling short, despite such a strong regular season. The Cardinals have a lot of valuable players, but he was their most valuable on defense.

This injury is especially concerning because it’s the 2nd time he’s torn it in his NFL career and he’s only going into his 4th year in the league. Mathieu was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked cornerback as a 3rd round rookie in 2013 and was a legitimate Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate, but tore his ACL late in the season and was limited to 438 nondescript snaps in 2014. He appeared to put the injury behind him in a dominant 2015 season, but now is dealing with another long recovery and more uncertainty.

Mathieu has vowed to only return when he’s 100% and not rush it like the last time around, but he’s still a candidate to play week 1. His recovery is obviously worth monitoring and there are no guarantees he’s the same player right away when he does return. The good news for Mathieu is he’s still only going into his age 24 season so he should recover quicker and, if he can put the injuries behind him, he can still have a very good, long career. The Cardinals don’t seem too concerned about his health long-term, giving him a 5-year, 62.5 million dollar deal ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2016. He’s now the 7th highest paid defensive back in the NFL in terms of average annual salary. He’s well worth it if he can stay healthy.

Peterson is also locked up long-term, signing a 5-year, 70 million dollar extension two off-season ago, after the 2011 5th overall pick had been in the league for just 3 seasons and had 2 more years left on his rookie deal. The extension is actually just starting now. Peterson finished 16th among cornerbacks in 2012 and 14th in 2013, but graded out below average in 2014 after signing the extension. However, that was only because he dealt with complications from undiagnosed diabetes all season and he bounced back in a big way with his diabetes under control in 2015, finishing a career best 5th. Still only going into his age 26 season, Peterson has made all 80 starts in 5 seasons in the league, despite his health issues, and, with his health under control, is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL.

Peterson will shadow opponent’s #1 receivers, while Mathieu will play safety in base packages and cover the slot in sub packages, where he excels. If Mathieu misses the start of the season, Tony Jefferson and Tyvon Branch will be the starters at safety. Jefferson has started 17 games in 3 seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2013 and has generally played well overall, grading out above average in 2 of 3 seasons in the league, including 18th in 2015. He’s never been an every down starter for a full season like he’s expected to be in 2016, with veteran free agent Rashad Johnson signing with the Titans, but he could have a breakout year and command a significant contract as a free agent next off-season. He’s a capable starter at the very least.

Branch, meanwhile, comes over from Kansas City on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal. Branch was limited to 4 games by injury from 2013-2014, but bounced back in a part-time role with the Chiefs last season, grading out above average on 428 snaps between the regular season and post-season. When Mathieu returns, Branch figures to only play about half the snaps in Arizona as well, coming in as a 3rd safety in sub packages when Mathieu moves to cornerback. His injury history is a concern, but he’s still only going into his age 30 season after all that and has graded out above average in each of his last 3 healthy seasons and could easily be solid in a situational role again in 2016.

Cornerback, on the other hand, becomes a very thin position if Mathieu isn’t on the field, covering the slot. Justin Bethel appears to be locked in as the starter opposite Peterson regardless, despite grading just slightly below average on 443 snaps in the first significant action of his career in 2015, after spending the first 3 seasons of his career from 2012-2014 as solely a special teamer. He’s a 3-time Pro Bowl special teamer in 4 years in the league since the Cardinals drafted him in the 6th round in 2012 and the Cardinals clearly believe in him as a defensive player as well, keeping him long-term with a 3-year, 15 million dollar extension last off-season, but he’s a complete projection to a starting cornerback role with just 4 career starts. He’ll be picked on a lot with Peterson locking down one side of the field well and could easily struggle in that role. Meanwhile, 3rd round rookie Brandon Williams would likely see action on the slot if Mathieu isn’t ready for the start of the season and could step into the starting lineup by season’s end if Bethel struggles. It’s a strong secondary, but so much is reliant on Mathieu’s health.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Cardinals were one of the best teams in the league last season and figure to be one of the best in the league once again in 2016. They had no major losses this off-season and added short-term starters at positions of need in Evan Mathis (right guard) and Chandler Jones (edge defender), giving them one of the best lineups in the NFL. Whether or not they win the Super Bowl is going to depend largely on an aging core continue to play at a high level and the return of potential Defensive Player of the Year Tyrann Mathieu from his 2nd torn ACL in 3 seasons.

Prediction: 12-4 1st in NFC West

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Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: 2015 NFC Championship Pick

stevenlourie 2015 Conference Championship NFL Picks, 2015 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (13-3) at Carolina Panthers (15-1)

I’ve been saying for pretty much all season that Arizona is better than Carolina, despite Carolina’s better record and their status as the #1 seed in the NFC really from start to finish (they’ve been tied for the best record in the NFC or had the best record in the NFC all season). Arizona obviously has lost more games than the Panthers, 3 to 1, but their margin of victory is much higher, winning their 13 games by an average of 16.92 points per game, while the Panthers’ 15 wins have come by an average of 13.27 points per game.

Arizona also finished the season #1 in rate of moving the chains differential, a statistic in which they led almost all season (Carolina finished 2nd). In two of their three losses they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence to support an evaluation of a team.

Carolina finished the season with a better point differential, +192 vs. +176, but they were more reliant on winning the turnover margin, finishing the season at +20, while Arizona finished at +9. Besides, Arizona’s point differential is better if you take out their 3rd loss, a 30 point home loss to the Seattle Seahawks week 17, a game in which the Cardinals didn’t even play their starters in the second half because the Panthers were simultaneously up big over Tampa Bay and on their way to locking up the #1 seed, making Arizona’s game meaningless. On top of that, the Cardinals played a much tougher schedule, as they had the 16th hardest strength of schedule record wise, while the Panthers had the nd easiest.

All of this being said, I’m not that confident in the Cardinals as 3 point road underdogs here for one reason: Tyrann Mathieu. Mathieu was playing at a borderline Defensive Player of the Year level before a week 15 torn ACL ended his season prematurely. Without him, it’s hard to argue that the Cardinals are a significantly better team, which they’d have to be for me to have any real confidence in them as mere field goal underdogs on the road. If this line does move to 3.5 before gametime, I may reconsider, as about 1 in 6 games as decided by exactly a field goal, but this is a low confidence pick for now. If you feel the need to put money on something this weekend, I’d recommend Arizona +145 on the money line.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Carolina Panthers 23 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3

Confidence: Low

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Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 NFC Divisional Pick

stevenlourie 2015 Divisional Round NFL Picks, 2015 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Arizona Cardinals (13-3)

The Cardinals clobbered the Packers 38-8 at home just 3 weeks ago back in week 16, so people don’t seem to be giving the Packers much of a chance. However, as the Vikings showed last week, even though a team blew you out recently, you still have a good chance to beat them in the playoffs. Teams are 30-15 ATS since 2001 in the playoffs in a same season, same site, non-divisional rematch against a team that beat them previously, including 15-7 ATS if the previous margin was 10+ points. Like the Vikings, the Packers are healthier this time around, getting left tackle David Bakhtiari back from a 3 game absence and cornerback Sam Shields back from a 4 game absence. Plus, I think it’s important to not get too caught up in a team’s best or worst performance of the season. The last time these two teams played, it was the Cardinals’ best and the Packers’ worst.

That being said, I think the Cardinals were the best team in the NFL last season, as they ranked 1st in rate of moving the chains differential. The Packers, meanwhile, were down in 10th. However, the Cardinals are missing defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, who was having an All-Pro caliber season before tearing his ACL and going down for the season week 15. That’s definitely going to matter at some point. The Packers, meanwhile, are as healthy as they’ve been all season and coming off a strong performance in Washington last week. Home teams in the divisional round are just 8-16 ATS since 2001 against a team that is coming off of a road win in the wild card round. Seven and a half points is a lot, so I’ll take it easily.

Arizona Cardinals 27 Green Bay Packers 24

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +7.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 17 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (9-6) at Arizona Cardinals (13-2)

I’ve thought for a while that the Cardinals were the most underrated team in the NFL. I’ve taken them in every week since week 2. Despite the fact that the Panthers didn’t lose their first game of the season until last week, I think the Cardinals have been the best team in the league for most of the year. The Cardinals rank first in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, despite having a couple losses. In those 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence to support an evaluation of a team.

Comparing them with the Panthers, they have a point differential of +206, while the Panthers are at +162, despite the fact that they have a turnover margin of +12, while the Panthers are at +19. The Cardinals are 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, but the Panthers are 6-1, accounting for nearly half of their wins, and the Cardinals rank 17th in rate of strength of schedule, as opposed to 28th for Carolina.

However, it appears the Cardinals are underrated no more, in the wake of their 38-8 win over the Packers last week, as this line has shifted from 2.5 in favor of the Seahawks to 6.5 in favor of the Cardinals, a massive 9 point shift. I actually think the line is pretty appropriate, but we’ve lost all value with the Cardinals. In fact, I’m going the other way. The Cardinals rank #1 in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Seahawks still come in 4th, despite a huge upset home loss to the St. Louis Rams last week. The Seahawks would have had a much easier time winning that game if they didn’t lose the turnover battle by 3 (including a fumble recovered for a touchdown) and I’ve already talked about how inconsistent turnover margins are.

Despite that loss, the Seahawks have still won 7 of 9 since a 2-4 start. They are 26-7 ATS in the second half of the regular season in the Pete Carroll era (since 2011), including 5-2 ATS this season. Well run teams like the Seahawks always seem to get it together down the stretch. Losing running back Marshawn Lynch, tight end Jimmy Graham, and running back Thomas Rawls with injuries has made this team more one-dimensional, but Russell Wilson has been playing arguably the best football of his career.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are missing cornerback Tyrann Mathieu for the season with a torn ACL and he was playing like a Defensive Player of the Year candidate before going down. They obviously didn’t seem to miss him last week against the Packers, but it’s possible they just had a really spirited performance to compensate for Mathieu, something that’s going to be tough to do every single week. They’ll definitely miss him. The Seahawks are also in a great spot as divisional road underdogs are 57-31 ATS in a same season regular season rematch against a team they previously lost to as divisional home favorites, since 2002. Revenge is far from uncommon in divisional matchups similar to this one and the Cardinals beat the Seahawks as underdogs in Seattle earlier this year. I can’t put money on the Seahawks, but I’m going with them.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Seattle Seahawks 20

Pick against the spread: Seattle +6.5

Confidence: Low

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Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (10-4) at Arizona Cardinals (12-2)

The Cardinals rank first in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, despite having a couple losses. In those 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence to support an evaluation of a team.

The Panthers obviously are the only undefeated team left in the NFL, but I think the Cardinals have played better. They’re 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, while the Panthers are 6-0, accounting for nearly half of their wins, and the Cardinals have a better point differential (+176 vs. +171), despite a worse turnover margin (+10 vs. +19). Week 14’s Thursday Night game against the Vikings was actually the first of the season in which the Cardinals lost the rate of moving chains battle and they did so just barely (77.42% to 78.13%), in a field goal victory. They’ve won that battle in all 13 games they’ve played this season on more than 4 days rest.

The Packers, meanwhile, rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, a bigger difference than what’s suggested by this line. The Cardinals do have a big upcoming game, with the Seahawks coming to town next week, but so do the Packers, as they host the Vikings next week, a game that will decide the NFC North unless the Vikings lose at home to the Giants and the Packers win here (the Packers can clinch the North this weekend if that happens). This is also a big game for both of these teams as a Green Bay victory puts them in position to get the #2 seed and a first round bye if they beat the Vikings next week and the Cardinals lose to the Seahawks. From this angle, it’s a wash, as both teams should be equally focused for this one.

Ordinarily, I’d be all over the Cardinals as 4.5 point favorites here, as they’ve been one of the most underrated teams in the NFL this season, but they lost defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, for the season last week, a potentially crippling blow to this defense. I’m still taking the Cardinals, especially since the Packers will be missing cornerback Sam Shields and left tackle David Bakhtiari, but I’m much more worried about the possibility of a backdoor cover now, especially since about 3 in 10 games are decided by fewer than 4 points.

Arizona Cardinals 27 Green Bay Packers 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona -4.5

Confidence: Low

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Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Eagles, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (11-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)

The Cardinals rank first in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, despite having a couple losses. In those 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20 first downs and only lost because they had a -3 turnover margin in both games. Turnover margins are incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that have a -3 turnover margin in a game have a +0.1 turnover margin the following game. That’s why I don’t really like to use turnover margin as evidence to support an evaluation of a team. Last week’s Thursday Night game against the Vikings was actually the first of the season in which the Cardinals lost the rate of moving chains battle and they did so just barely (77.42% to 78.13%), in a field goal victory. They’ve won that battle in all 12 games they’ve played this season on more than 4 days rest.

The Eagles rank just 21st in rate of moving the chains differential, so I think we’re getting some line value with the Cardinals. However, I’m not confident in the Cardinals for three reasons. For one, close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. Despite that, the public is all over the Cardinals and I typically like to avoid taking heavily publicly backed sides, as the public always loses money in the long run, which is the second reason. The 3rd is that the Eagles host the Redskins next week, a game in which they’ll be favored, so they won’t have any distractions. Teams are 92-65 ATS since 2012 as road favorites before being favored again, if their opponent will be underdogs again the following week. All other road favorites are 71-95 ATS over that time period. Because the Eagles will be favored next week, the Cardinals fall into the 2nd category. Still, I like the Cardinals, who are already 4-2 ATS as road favorites this year, to continue their dominant season and win big here.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against the spread: Arizona -4.5

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (8-4) at Arizona Cardinals (10-2)

Aside from the opening game of the season, when the New England Patriots hosted the Pittsburgh Steelers, this is the first non-divisional Thursday Night game of the season. I was disappointed a couple years ago when they decided to do primarily divisional games on Thursday. Not only does the NFL lose quality of performance by having what would otherwise be a good divisional game on a short week, but, from a picking perspective, it can be very tough to predict who is going to cover a Thursday Night divisional game.

Ordinarily, the better team tends to cover on Thursday Night, as long as they are at home, because better teams that don’t have to travel are at a serious advantage on a short week, but not in a divisional game because the teams are so familiar with each other. Divisional home favorites on Thursday Night are 22-21 ATS since 2002, but non-divisional home favorites, like the Cardinals here, are 26-12 ATS, including 12-3 ATS as favorites of 7+.

The Cardinals are favored by 9 here. They were only favored by 6 a week ago on the early line and typically I like to fade that kind of significant week-to-week line movement because it tends to be an overreaction to a single week of play, but I don’t mind it here. The Cardinals are coming off of a resounding 27-3 victory in St. Louis, a game in which they won the first down battle 29 to 9, while the Vikings are coming off of a resounding 38-7 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks, a game in which they lost the first down battle 25-9.

The Vikings are also going to be without defensive tackle Linval Joseph for the 2nd straight week and are also missing safety Harrison Smith and outside linebacker Anthony Barr, three of their best players. The Cardinals, who have the fewest first downs allowed AND the most first downs gained in the NFL this season, rank 1st in rate of moving the chains by a wide margin, while the Vikings are down in 18th and are even less talented than that suggests because of those three key absences, so, while this line seems high, I don’t mind laying all these points. The Cardinals should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 27 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against the spread: Arizona-9

Confidence: Medium

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Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (9-2) at St. Louis Rams (4-7)

The Cardinals failed to cover last week in San Francisco, winning by just 6 points, as 10 point favorites, but I like their chances of covering this week as 5 point favorites in St. Louis for a few reasons. For one, they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Road favorites off of a road win are 44-31 ATS since 2008, as long as they are in their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 218-218 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.44 points per game, as opposed to 307-428 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.93 points per game.

The Cardinals should have won by more than 6 last week anyway, as they won the first down battle by 9, 26-17. That’s not particularly impressive against the 49ers, but they haven’t lost the rate of moving the chains battle all season and in their two losses won the first down battle by a combined 20. They rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Rams are all the way down 28th. Defensive end Robert Quinn is out for the 4th straight week for the Rams and they’ve really missed him. They rank dead last in rate of moving the chains, so they’ve had to rely on their defense to have any success this season and they haven’t been playing nearly as well defensively without Quinn. The Cardinals are missing running back Chris Johnson, defensive end Frostee Rucker, and defensive end Corey Redding, but none of those players are as important as Quinn and the Rams are also missing talented cornerback Trumaine Johnson.

This should be a relatively easy game for the Cardinals and they’re expected to be favored by 6 next week at home against the Vikings. Favorites of 6+ or more are 80-42 ATS since 2012 before a game in which they will be 6+ point favorites again. The Cardinals are only favored by 5, but it was 6 earlier in the week and it really should be 10 given the talent disparity between these two teams. Either way, the logic makes sense. Superior teams tend to blowout out inferior teams when they don’t have an upcoming distraction. They do have to play next week on Thursday Night and favorites are 46-70 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. I’m also a bit concerned that the line is dropping despite the public being all over the Cardinals, as that suggests the sharps are on the Rams, but I just think we’re getting too much line value to pass on. I wouldn’t put money on this one unless the line drops to 4 though.

Arizona Cardinals 17 St. Louis Rams 9

Pick against the spread: Arizona -5

Confidence: Low

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