Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Wild Card Round NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 NFL Wild Card Picks, Cardinals, Panthers, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)

The Panthers went into Atlanta last week and won 34-3, winning the NFC South and securing a home playoff game with a record of 7-8-1. After the game, Tony Dungy remarked that he believed the Panthers could go into Seattle and knock off the Seahawks the way they’re playing right now. That’s slightly hyperbolic, but I don’t disagree with his pro-Panthers sentiment. I was actually rooting for Seattle to lose and Arizona to win (even though I took Seattle -13 for a no confidence pick) early in those two games when they scenario was happening because I felt we could get a lot of line value with the Panthers as likely touchdown home underdogs to the Seahawks, who would fall to the 5th seed if they lost and Arizona won.

Unfortunately, Seattle did win and Arizona ended up losing anyway. Now Carolina hosts the Cardinals, which is a much easier matchup for them, but we’re not getting nearly as much line value with the Panthers as we would with them as touchdown home underdogs to Seattle. Still, the Panthers do seem like the right side here. The public is split, understanding that the Panthers are playing good football right now and understanding that the Cardinals are not the same team without Carson Palmer and even without Drew Stanton, but hesitant to lay a bunch of points with the Panthers. Despite the public’s hesitance and ambivalence, the line has moved from 4.5 to 6 and even 6.5 in some places over the past couple of days, suggesting heavy sharp action on the host.

I understand why the sharps are doing so and I agree with them. Aside from Seattle, Carolina is the hottest team in football coming into the playoffs. They’ve won 4 straight games and their rate of moving the chains differential when adjusted for strength of schedule is the 2nd best among playoff teams over the past 4 games, only trailing Seattle. In general, they’ve been great since the bye, only losing in Minnesota in a game that Carolina had a highly fluky two punts blocked and returned for touchdowns, the first time anything like that had happening in about 40 years.

Over those past 5 games since their bye, they’ve moved the chains at a 77.38% rate, as opposed to 61.98% for their opponents. The biggest difference is they’ve had Jonathan Stewart come back healthy and rush for 486 yards on 91 carries (5.34 YPA) and defensive coordinator Sean McDermott is finally once again getting the most out of his defense, despite massive personnel turnover from last season. Their schedule has been very easy over those past 5 games, as none of those 5 teams made the playoffs, but, as I mentioned earlier, even when adjusting for strength of schedule, they’re still a red hot team coming into the post-season. They’re outplaying these non-playoff teams far more than the average team does.

Besides, it’s not like Arizona is really playing like a playoff team right now. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential on the season, the Cardinals are the worst among teams who made the playoffs and even when you take strength of schedule into account, they’re only 0.01% ahead of Cincinnati for 11th out of 12 playoff teams. On the season, they moved the chains at a 69.70% rate, as opposed to 69.83% for their opponents, a differential of -0.13% that ranks 17th in the NFL.

Even Carolina is ranked 14th on the season, moving the chains at a 73.64% rate, as opposed to 72.50% for their opponents, a differential of 1.14%. Arizona’s 11-5 record has been buoyed by a 4-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and their +11 point differential is 2nd worst among qualifying playoff teams, only ahead of these Panthers and that doesn’t even tell the whole story. The Cardinals have benefitted from tough to sustain things like a 62.07% rate of recovering fumbles (best in the NFL), a +8 turnover margin, and a +4 return touchdown margin, while the Panthers recover just 50.00% of their fumbles, have just a -3 turnover margin, and a -2 return touchdown margin.

Also, while the Panthers are the 2nd hottest team coming into the playoffs, the Cardinals are the coldest, by a long-shot. Their defense has been above average over the past 4 games, as it has been all season, but their offense has moved the chains at a rate -4.67% worse than expected given their strength of schedule over the past 4 games, which makes sense, considering they’re down to their 3rd quarterback. On the season, they’ve moved the chains at a 73.58% rate in games started by Carson Palmer and a 67.03% rate in games started by other quarterbacks.

They’ve also been worse on the road than at home this season, particularly without Palmer, moving the chains at a 68.83% rate, as opposed to 69.53% for their opponents, a differential of -0.70%. That might not seem horrible, but in games started by quarterbacks other than Carson Palmer, they move the chains at a 64.02% rate on the road. Lindley had a decent performance in San Francisco last week against a banged up San Francisco defense, as he completed 23 of 39 for 316 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, moving the chains at a 80.00% rate, which should give Arizona fans some hope, but this is still a quarterback that completes 50.8% of his passes for 4.98 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in his career over 264 attempts. Quarterbacks are 11-22 ATS since 2002 in their first post-season start anyway. Bruce Arians gets the most out of his quarterbacks, but I’m still going with the sharps and taking Carolina at 6 before this line gets any higher.

Carolina Panthers 20 Arizona Cardinals 9

Pick against the spread: Carolina -6

Confidence: High

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Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (11-4) at San Francisco 49ers (7-8)

This line has shifted from 4 to 6 over the past week. Normally, I love fading significant line movements because they tend to be overreactions. Rate of moving the chains also says this line is too high, as the Cardinals rank 16th, moving the chains at a 69.52% rate, as opposed to 69.49% for their opponents, a differential of 0.03%, while the 49ers rank 20th, moving the chains at a 70.81% rate, as opposed to 72.15% for their opponents, a differential of -1.33% Their defense is also really hurting, losing Chris Borland, Eric Reid, and Ray McDonald for a variety of reasons in the last couple of weeks. However, this line might be warranted. The Cardinals were embarrassed at home by the Seahawks last week in a 35-6 loss that could have been worse if the Seahawks had made two makeable field goals. The Cardinals moved the chains at a mere 58.62% rate, as opposed to 80.00% for the Seahawks.

The 49ers aren’t as good as the Seahawks obviously and the Cardinals will be switching from Ryan Lindley to Logan Thomas at quarterback and I don’t think he could possibly be worse than Lindley, who, somehow in the modern age of football, has completed just 49.3% of his passes for an average of 4.44 YPA, 0 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions and has shown a stunning lack of accuracy and poor ball placement dating back to his San Diego State days. However, Thomas is a 4th round rookie and is just 1 of 8 in his career and, while that 1 completion went for 81 yards, it was on a dumpoff to a running back. The Cardinals only moved the chains at a 67.18% rate with Drew Stanton under center and figure to once again be even worse than that this week with Thomas under center. It’s hard to be confident in him, though I ultimately am going with the Cardinals.

San Francisco 49ers 13 Arizona Cardinals 9

Pick against the spread: Arizona +6

Confidence: None

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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (10-4) at Arizona Cardinals (11-3)

A lot is made about the Seahawks’ homefield advantage in the NFC West, but the Cardinals have had a tough homefield advantage in recent years as well, going 29-11 ATS as home underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since 2007. This season alone they are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS at home. Despite that, the public is all over the Seahawks. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it makes some sense here.

The reason I say some sense is because I can’t be confident in Ryan Lindley. On the season, the Cardinals rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 70.30% rate, as opposed to 68.60% for their opponents, a differential of 1.70%. Meanwhile, the Seahawks rank 5th, moving the chains at a 75.29% rate, as opposed to 70.31% for their opponents, a differential of 4.98%. That suggests this line at 9 points is way too high. However, they move the chains at just a 67.18% rate in games where they don’t have Carson Palmer active, primarily playing Drew Stanton in those games. That still suggests this line is too high, but while Drew Stanton was a decent and functional backup, Ryan Lindley has never resembled that.

All of his action prior to this year was in 2012, when he completed 52.0% of his passes for an average of 4.40 YPA, 0 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, as the former 6th round pick showed a stunning lack of accuracy. It’s possible that he’ll be better in Bruce Arians system and he’s done a great job of getting the best out of guys, but he didn’t look good at all in limited action against the Rams, completing 4 of 10 for 30 yards. This line is probably still too high, especially given how dominant the Cardinals have been there, but I can’t be confident. The Seahawks are also in a good spot as teams are 95-64 ATS as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites since 2010. They don’t have any upcoming distractions on the horizon with only a home game against St. Louis left on their schedule. I’m going with the Cardinals, but, again, I’m not confident.

Seattle Seahawks 16 Arizona Cardinals 9

Pick against the spread: Arizona +9

Confidence: None

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St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Rams, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (10-3) at St. Louis Rams (6-7)

At first glance, this line seems off. The Cardinals aren’t as good as their 10-3 record, but rate of moving the chains differential still says we’re getting a significant amount of line value with them as 4.5 point underdogs. The Cardinals rank 10th, moving the chains at a 71.50% rate, as opposed to 69.85% for their opponents, a differential of 1.66%. The Rams, meanwhile, move the chains at a 70.48% rate, as opposed to 71.28% for their opponents, a differential of -0.80%. This line was 2.5 a week ago and it’s since moved across key numbers of 3 and 4 and I love fading significant line movements like that.

However, I understand why this line is where it is. The Rams are playing dominate football over the past two weeks, allowing opponents to move the chains at a mere 54.55% rate, as opposed to 75.86% for their offense. It’s also hard to ignore the fact that they haven’t allowed a single point in either of their last 2 games, becoming the just the 4th team in the last 25 years to pull off that feat. For the record, each of the previous 3 teams covered by an average of 10.67 points the following week, though that’s such a small sample size.

You can call the past two weeks a fluke and it’s important to remember that in the first 11 games of the season they moved the chains at a 69.50% rate, as opposed to 74.03% for their opponents, a differential of -4.53%. However, keep in mind that over those 11 games, they played 9 teams that currently have winning records and managed to pull the upset 3 times against the likes of Denver, Seattle, and San Francisco. You can say that over the past two weeks they were only playing the Redskins and the Raiders, but it’s not like the Cardinals’ offense is moving the ball well right now. In games that Drew Stanton has started, they are moving the chains at a mere 68.98% rate and they have just 2 offensive touchdowns in their last 3 games and one of those was a garbage time touchdown against a terrible Atlanta defense. That doesn’t exactly seem like a recipe for success going on the road against a red hot defense. The Cardinals’ defense isn’t healthy either with Tyrann Mathieu out and Antonio Cromartie likely out.

The Cardinals haven’t exactly been great on the road this year anyway, moving the chains at a 69.41% rate, as opposed to 71.27% for their opponents on the road this season. On the road with Drew Stanton, they move the chains at a 57.53% rate. The Rams were within 3 of the Cardinals in Arizona earlier this season before the Cardinals had 3 fluky touchdowns, one on a long pass, and two on return touchdowns. And that was when the Cardinals still had Carson Palmer. The Rams are also in a good spot as divisional home favorites before being non-divisional home favorites as teams are 51-33 ATS in that spot since 2008. They have no distractions on the horizon with the lowly Giants coming to town next week. I would have liked the Rams a lot more at 2.5, but they should still be the right side here at 4.5, even if it’s for a no confidence pick.

St. Louis Rams 17 Arizona Cardinals 10

Pick against spread: St. Louis -4.5

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) at Arizona Cardinals (9-3)

The wheels are starting to fall off for the Arizona Cardinals. They have lost 2 straight by double digits in Seattle and Atlanta and they have one offensive touchdown in their last 11 quarters. I’ve said all season that this team had not been playing as well as their record and it’s finally starting to catch up with them. They’ve been way too reliant on a +10 turnover margin this season, powered by a 61.90% rate of recovering fumbles (2nd in the NFL), a 2-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, and a +4 return touchdown margin.

All the advanced metrics have them as not being nearly as good as their record, even now that they’ve lost 2 in a row. They rank just 18th in the NFL in DVOA. In rate of moving the chains, they rank 12th, moving them at a 71.79% rate, as opposed to 69.64% for their opponents, a differential of 2.16%. Their offense has been even worse since Carson Palmer went down, as they’ve moved the chains at a 69.18% rate this season in games that Palmer doesn’t start, including the last 3. Now they’ve lost Tyrann Mathieu for an extended period of time defensively. Meanwhile, the Chiefs rank 7th, moving the chains at a 75.00% rate, as opposed to 71.31% for their opponents, a differential of 3.69%. The Cardinals don’t deserve to be favored here, even if it’s only by a point.

Speaking of the Cardinals being favored by a point, teams are 39-61 ATS since 2008 as favorites before Thursday Night Football. The Cardinals might not be completely focused for this non-conference game with a divisional game against the Rams up in 4 days. The Cardinals are also projected to be underdogs in that game, which opens up another bad spot for them as non-divisional home favorites are 88-107 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs.

On the flipside, the Chiefs host the Raiders up next, so all their focus will be on this game. Non-divisional road underdogs are 123-94 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home favorites and teams are 119-96 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2008. Combining these two, teams are 103-63 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. I wish we were getting more than a point with the Chiefs, but they should be the right side.

There are two reasons why the Chiefs aren’t a bigger play here. For one, the Cardinals have had a tough homefield advantage in recent years, going 28-11 ATS as home underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since 2007. Two, teams that lose back-to-back road games are 44-25 ATS in their next game as long as they still have a winning record and they’re home favorites. It makes sense. Any team that is able to lose two road games and still have a winning record and be favored at home was probably pretty good to begin with and may be undervalued off of those two losses. However, I don’t think the Cardinals are undervalued here and they don’t deserve to be home favorites. The Chiefs are the better team in the better spot and I have a reasonable amount in confidence in their ability to pull the upset.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +1

Confidence: Medium

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Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Falcons, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (9-2) at Atlanta Falcons (4-7)

The Falcons lost at home last week, but that hasn’t been the norm for them at home in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. They are 31-21-1 ATS at home (38-15 straight up) since those two came in back in 2008, as long as Matt Ryan is healthy, including 7-3 ATS as home underdogs, as they are here. The fact that they lost last week actually makes it more likely that they cover this week as they’re very good off of a loss in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. They are 26-14 ATS off of a loss since 2008, including 17-9 ATS at home and 5-1 ATS as home underdogs.

We’re also getting line value with the Falcons as field goal underdogs here, even before we get into how good they’ve been at home. The Cardinals are not as good as their 9-2 record, moving the chains at a 72.14% rate, as opposed to 69.33% for their opponents, a differential of 2.81% that ranks just 11th. They’ve been way too reliant on a +12 turnover margin this season, powered by a 65.00% rate of recovering fumbles (2nd in the NFL), a 2-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, and a +3 return touchdown margin. Atlanta, meanwhile, ranks 20th, moving the chains at a 73.56% rate, as opposed to 75.27% for their opponents, a differential of 1.71%.

Arizona is also really missing Carson Palmer, their starting quarterback who is out for the season with a torn ACL.  Palmer completed 62.9% of his passes for an average of 7.26 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while backup Drew Stanton has completed 53.6% of his passes for an average of 7.08 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. They’ve moved the chains at a 69.47% rate in games that Drew Stanton started and a 73.96% rate in games started by Carson Palmer. They have no business being field goal favorites. They were exposed last week in Seattle and I think they will continue to be exposed this week in Arizona. They’ll be looking to get an easy win off of a very disappointing loss and I think they could overlook an Atlanta team that, as bad as their record is, is very tough at home generally.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play on the Falcons is because they have to go to Green Bay next week. Teams are 99-126 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs, while teams are 42-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs, which the Falcons undoubtedly will be next week. Still, there’s enough stuff here for me to feel confident grabbing the field goal with the Falcons, especially with the public all over Arizona.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Arizona Cardinals 23 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +3

Confidence: Medium

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Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (9-1) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4)

It takes a lot for me to go against Seattle at home, given how consistently good they’ve been there in recent years. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 45-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 43-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by XX points per game. This is opposed to a 24-42 record away from home (28-37-1 ATS), getting outscored by XX points per game. This home dominance has been even more pronounced over the past 3 seasons, since the start of the Russell Wilson era, as they’ve gone 21-2 straight up and 16-7 ATS at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 14.39 points per game at home and beating the spread by an average of 7.09 points per game. Russell Wilson has also been very good off a loss, going 7-4 ATS since his rookie year in 2012, including 4-1 ATS at home.

However, I’m going against the Seahawks here at home for some very good reasons. For one, I think the Seahawks’ home dominance has been priced into this line, to an extent. Obviously their home dominance is no longer a secret, especially since they won the Super Bowl, so betting them at home isn’t as good of a deal as it used to be. This season, since their Super Bowl run, they are just 3-2 ATS at home and there’s been some pretty steep lines along the way, 7.5 point favorites for Green Bay, 8.5 point favorites for Dallas, 5 point favorites for Denver. This has the looks of another one of those types of lines.

Either that are Arizona is just undervalued by the odds makers. I’ve been calling them overrated for a while and I still don’t think they’re as good as their record, but they had a very impressive performance last week against a solid Detroit team, moving the chains at an 80.00% rate, as opposed to 52.38% for the Lions. That pushed them to 9th on the season in rate of moving the chains differential (including 3rd in the NFC behind only Green Bay and New Orleans), as they move the chains at a 73.18% rate, as opposed to 69.44% for their opponents, a differential of 3.74%. The Seahawks, meanwhile, rank 11th moving the chains at a 76.53% rate, as opposed to 73.22% for their opponents, a differential of 3.31%. This line is too high.

Arizona is very well coached on both sides of the ball and as much as the Palmer loss does hurt their offense, their defense has been helped by the healthy returns of Tyrann Mathieu and Calais Campbell. They rank 3rd in opponents rate of moving the chains differential and they’re coming off their most dominant performance of the year. Whether it’s Seattle’s homefield advantage being priced into the line or Arizona being undervalued, the Seahawks aren’t an auto-bet here at home as 7 point favorites.

With that in mind, the Cardinals are in a much better spot this week and are absolutely the right side here. While the Cardinals have a relatively meaningless game against the Falcons up next, the Seahawks have a trip to San Francisco on deck in 4 days on Thanksgiving. Divisional home favorites are 19-52 ATS before being divisional road underdogs since 2002 and favorites are 36-58 ATS before Thursday Night Football. On the other side, teams are 45-31 ATS as divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road favorites.

Combining the two, teams are 100-61 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. Even crazier, teams are 36-13 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs before being road favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs, including 7-2 ATS since 1989 as divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road favorites when their opponents will next be divisional road underdogs. I hate going against Seattle at home and I hate going with a public underdog, but there’s just too much stuff in Arizona’s favor that can’t be ignored. They should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 16 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Arizona +7

Confidence: Low

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Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (7-2) at Arizona Cardinals (8-1)

The Cardinals have the NFL’s best record at 8-1, but they’re also the most overrated team in the NFL I believe. They rank just 14th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.56% rate, as opposed to 70.71% for their opponents, a differential of 1.85%. They’ve been way too reliant on a +12 turnover margin this season, powered by a 68.75% rate of recovering fumbles (1st in the NFL), a 2-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, and a +3 return touchdown margin.

Meanwhile, the Lions are the better team, ranking 11th in that aspect. They move the chains at a 71.27% rate, as opposed to 68.68% for their opponents, a differential of 2.59%. On top of that, while they are getting healthier with Calvin Johnson coming back from injury to give this offense a boost, the Cardinals just lost their starting quarterback Carson Palmer for the season. Palmer was playing well before going down, completing 62.9% of his passes for an average of 7.26 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. The Cardinals have had some success in the games that backup Drew Stanton has started, but not because of him as he’s completed 49.5% of his passes for an average of 6.60 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. The Cardinals shouldn’t be favored here, even if it’s only by a point.

The Cardinals are also going into their toughest game of the season next week as they head to Seattle. Non-divisional home favorites are 86-106 ATS before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. The Lions have a tough game in New England next week, but teams are actually 96-70 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2002. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play on Detroit is because the Cardinals have been tough at home recently, going 27-11 ATS as home underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since 2007. The Lions should be the right side and win straight up.

Detroit Lions 16 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Detroit +1

Confidence: Low

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St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (3-5) at Arizona Cardinals (7-1)

The Cardinals are the most overrated team in the NFL. Despite having the NFL’s best record at 7-1, the Cardinals rank just 14th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.65% rate, as opposed to 71.71% for their opponents, a differential of 0.94%. However, the Rams aren’t very good either, moving the chains at a 71.19% rate, as opposed to 75.52% for their opponents, a differential of -3.72% that ranks 26th in the NFL. This line is also at 7 for two reasons. One, the Rams are a little overrated as well. Two, the odds makers know Arizona isn’t as good as their record and doesn’t want to give sharp bettors +10. The public is all over Arizona, because they’re caught up in records, and I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense.

The Rams are also in their 2nd straight road game.  Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. However, the Rams are coming off of an emotional win over the 49ers and might not be at 100% or have nearly the focus they would if they had lost. Teams are 48-45 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road win, as opposed to 93-50 ATS for road underdogs off of a road win. Going off that, teams are 26-44 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of a straight up win as double digit underdogs. I’m taking the Rams out of principle, but I’m not confident.

Update: It was brought to my attention that the Rams are in their 3rd straight road game instead of their 2nd. This doesn’t hurt them, as teams in their 3rd or 3 road games are 60-64 ATS, but it doesn’t help them. This doesn’t change my pick because I’m still fading the public and the overrated Cardinals out of principle, but it makes me even less confident about the Rams.

Arizona Cardinals 19 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against the spread: St. Louis +7

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (6-1) at Dallas Cowboys (6-2)

Tony Romo is not expected to play in this game, but I like their chances of covering this spread even without him so I’m going to lock this pick in now while the line is still where it is. If Romo ends up playing, it’ll be an added bonus. The public is all over the Cardinals as 3 point underdogs here, which makes sense as the Cardinals have one loss and the Cowboys will be rolling with Brandon Weeden under center. I love fading the public, especially when the public is on the underdog, as the public always loses money in the long run and whenever they think a different team should be favored than the odds makers it generally doesn’t end well. As long as it makes sense, I almost always go against a public underdog.

It does make sense here. I like betting on good teams in their first game missing their starting quarterback, as they tend to give 110% to make up for the loss of their quarterback, while the other team relaxing a little. The Cowboys, despite what happened last week, are a good team, moving the chains at a 77.65% rate, as opposed to 72.15% for their opponents, a differential of 5.51%. Their offense won’t be as good without Romo obviously, but they have a strong enough of an offensive supporting cast to make up for it and their defense has been surprisingly passable this season thanks to the coaching of new defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli.

The Cardinals, conversely, are not nearly as good as their record. They move the chains at a 71.36% rate, as opposed to 72.20% for their opponents, a differential of -0.84% that ranks 19th in the NFL. They’ve been way too reliant on a +9 turnover margin this season, powered by a 61.54% rate of recovering fumbles (5th in the NFL), a 2-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, and a +2 return touchdown margin.

They’re probably the most overrated team in football, especially after beating overrated Philadelphia last week, a game in which they couldn’t move the ball much at all with the exception of two big plays. The Cowboys are also in a good spot as they only have a game against Jacksonville on deck. They are expected to be 10.5 point favorites in London next Sunday against Jacksonville and teams are 69-55 ATS since 2010 before being double digit favorites. I’m not confident, but the Cowboys should be the right side.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -3

Confidence: None

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