Last week: 20 (+1)
Record: 4-4
On bye.
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Cardinals
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (2-6) at Arizona Cardinals (4-4)
The Texans have lost each of the past two games, but the good news is that they might have found their quarterback of the future. Case Keenum has completed 35 of 59 for 621 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2 games. The Texans have been better than their record all along. They are moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-11), inability to recover fumbles (41.2%), and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns). Now with Keenum under center, things seem to be better. Again, they haven’t won, but losing by a combined 4 points to the Chiefs and Colts is almost like beating anyone else.
The Texans have had a brutal schedule to this point, as 7 of their 8 opponents are currently 4-4 or better. Between the 49ers, Seahawks, Colts, and Chiefs, they’ve faced 4 of the top-10 teams in my Power Rankings. Their schedule gets easier from here on out, starting with the Cardinals here this week. The Cardinals are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. If you use rate of moving the chains differential to determine the line, the Texans should actually be favored by a little bit, before you even get into their schedule.
Two uncertainties are why this isn’t a bigger play. One is that Gary Kubiak is out. They might rally together and win one for Kubiak before he returns next week, but they could also look as lost as they did last week without him. Interim Head Coach Wade Phillips has struggled as a Head Coach in the past. On top of that, being the Head Coach could distract him from putting everything into calling plays for the defense. Meanwhile, offensive coordinator Rick Dennison is now the primary offensive play caller.
The second reason is just that, going into his 3rd career start, the Cardinals could have enough tape on Keenum to figure out how to play him and expose why he went undrafted. The Colts did this to a large extent in the 2nd half last week. Keenum loves to throw it deep, but if you blitz him, like the Colts did often in the 2nd half, he doesn’t seem to be accurate enough to take advantage and he might even have trouble reading the blitz. Still, I like the Texans this week.
Houston Texans 20 Arizona Cardinals 17 Upset Pick +125
Pick against spread: Houston +2.5
Confidence: Low
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Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#20)
Last week: 23 (+3)
Record: 4-4
Bruce Arians may have won Coach of the Year in Indianapolis last year, but the Colts have been much better without him this season (they’re actually beating good teams and winning by large margins, something they rarely did last season) and he has made some questionable decisions with the Cardinals in his first year there. Perhaps none is more questionable than his infatuation with Rashard Mendenhall. I can understand not wanting to give Andre Ellington a larger role earlier in the season because he hadn’t proven himself yet, but giving the plodding Mendenhall and his 3.1 YPC his starting job back after the bye, after Ellington rushed for 154 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries in place of an injured Mendenhall this week, is inexcusable. It sounds like that is what’s going to happen in a move that rivals Todd Haley keeping Thomas Jones as the starter over Jamaal Charles when Charles was averaging over 2.5 yards per carry more than Jones.
Week 8 Studs
RE Calais Campbell
MLB Daryl Washington
FS Rashad Johnson
Week 8 Duds
RG Paul Fanaika
C Lyle Sendlein
CB Jerraud Powers
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Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4)
The Falcons are 2-4, but they are better than their record. All 6 of their games have been close and all 4 of their losses were winnable games lost by a touchdown or less. They’ve also had a very tough schedule, as, with the exception of the winless Buccaneers last week, all of their opponents this season are 3-4 or better.
Their defense is horrific, one of the worst in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate that is only 1/10th of a percent better than the last place Jacksonville Jaguars. However, they still have Matt Ryan, who is doing an unheralded good job leading this offense, despite injuries all over his receiving corps and struggles from his offensive line. The offense is moving the chains at a 79% rate and they get a boost this week as Steven Jackson is expected to return from injury to hopefully provide some more balance, though it’s hard to trust a 30-year-old back coming off an injury.
Still, I think they are definitely better than the Cardinals, who are moving the chains at a 71% rate and allowing opponents to move the chains at a 74% rate. The Cardinals are also in a bad spot as small home favorites before a bye. Teams who are favored by 3 or less going into a bye are just 11-30 ATS since 2002, an incredibly bad record.
This does make some sense. Small home favorites are generally comparable or slightly inferior to their opponent, which is the case here, as these two teams are 20th (Falcons) and 23rd (Cardinals) in my Power Rankings. Teams in that dynamic might just assume a victory at home going into a bye and completely overlook their opponent, which is not something you should be doing with a comparable opponent. As a result, not only do they rarely cover the spread, but they also lose the game outright more than 2 out of 3 times dating back to 2002.
The reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Falcons are in a bad spot and could be distracted by a road game in Carolina next week. Non-divisional road dogs are 47-72 ATS before being divisional road dogs since 2002. Still, I like the Falcons’ chances of not just covering this small spread, but also winning the pulling the upset and winning game outright.
Atlanta Falcons 27 Arizona Cardinals 20 Upset Pick +120
Pick against spread: Atlanta +2.5
Confidence: Medium
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Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#23)
Last week: 23 (-4)
Record: 3-4
I feel like I never have anything to say about the Cardinals. They’re not terrible, but they’re not great. They have a solid defense held back by an erratic quarterback behind a terrible offensive line and an inability to establish the running game. They will definitely win at least 6 games and surpass their pre-season 5.5 win total over/under. That’s not a surprise. Teams with over/under win totals of 6 or less hit about 2/3rds of the time.
Week 7 Studs
ROLB John Abraham
Week 7 Duds
QB Carson Palmer
LT Bradley Sowell
RT Eric Winston
RG Paul Fanaika
LG Nate Potter
TE Rob Housler
SS Yeremiah Bell
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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (5-1) at Arizona Cardinals (3-3)
Ordinarily, the rule of thumb is to go against the Seahawks on the road. However, lately they’ve been a covering machine no matter where they are, including a 6-2 ATS record in their last 8 road games. Going back to 2007, they are 22-32 ATS on the road, but they have also never really had a problem covering as road favorites in that time frame, going 8-7 ATS. I don’t think you can go against the Seahawks just because they’re on the road here, even on a short week.
Ordinarily, the home team has an advantage on Thursday Nights because travel time cuts into prep time on a short week. However, that’s not the case when the road team is favored because the road team’s talent level tends to cancel that out. Better teams are at just as much of an advantage on Thursday Nights as home teams are. On top of that, because this is a divisional matchup, the short week won’t matter as much. These two teams are familiar with each other and probably spent extra time on each other in the off-season because they knew they’d be facing them twice in critical games.
Given that, I really have no idea which side to go with in this one. Using rate of moving the chains, I’ve calculated this spread at about Seattle -5, which gives us a tiny bit of value with the underdog, but not enough where I’m going to be confident taking them. The Seahawks are moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents, while the Cardinals are moving the chains at a 70% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. The Cardinals are also playing a little bit better of late thanks to the return of Daryl Washington defensively and the utilization of Andre Ellington offensively. Also, this could be a sloppy defensive battle between two good defenses on the short week, so getting 6.5 points does seem intriguing. I don’t like to go against the Seahawks, even on the road, but I’m siding with the Cardinals, even though I’m not confident at all.
Seattle Seahawks 17 Arizona Cardinals 13
Pick against spread: Arizona +6.5
Confidence: None
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Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#19)
Last week: 20 (+1)
Record: 3-3
The Cardinals are in an interesting spot this off-season quarterback wise. Carson Palmer has been as advertised. Unfortunately, that advertisement said “will move the chains, but kills you with turnovers.” Palmer is completing 59.3% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions this season and he’ll be owed 8 million in an age 35 season in 2014. The Cardinals, however, probably won’t have a high pick to spend on a quarterback and they don’t have an internal developmental option unless you count Ryan Lindley (don’t count Ryan Lindley).
Week 6 Studs
RB Andre Ellington
CB Patrick Peterson
FS Yeremiah Bell
Week 6 Duds
QB Carson Palmer
LT Bradley Sowell
DT Alameda Ta’amu
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Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-2)
Remember when everyone freaked out just because the 49ers lost 2 of 3 games. Good times. Losing 2 of 3 games isn’t a big deal. It’s just more noticeable at the start of the season. They’ve won the last two games by a combined score of 69-14. However, everything is still not as perfect as it seemed coming into the season. The 49ers’ 34-3 win masked the fact that Colin Kaepernick completed just 6 passes all game. They won’t be able to win the turnover battle by 4 every time going forward.
Kaepernick is completing just 56.1% of his passes for an average of 7.3 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions this season and the 49ers are moving the chains on just 69% of opportunities as a result. The problem is twofold. One is his lack of receivers. Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham remain out so Kaepernick has been limited to Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, and a bunch of scrubs. Boldin busted out of the gate on fire this season with 13 catches for 208 yards and a touchdown in the opener, but he’s combined for less than that in his other 4 games, catching 13 passes for 185 yards and a touchdown. Kaepernick seriously misses Crabtree, his go to receiver down the stretch last year. Crabtree totaled 66 catches for 950 yards and 9 touchdowns in 11 games with Kaepernick last season, over a third of Kaepernick passing production.
The other reason is he hasn’t been able to run the ball nearly as effectively. After rushing for 568 yards and 6 touchdowns on 75 carries in 11 games last year, Kaepernick has rushed for 154 yards and no scores on 27 carries in 5 games this year. This is a growing trend across the league as mobile quarterbacks like Robert Griffin and Cam Newton have also been kept in check on the ground this year as teams have had an off-season to study them and the read option. It’s something Kaepernick will have to adapt to and, while I believe he’s capable of it, it’s something I’ll have to see first. Kaepernick gets a tough matchup this week against the Cardinals, whose solid defense got even tougher last week when Daryl Washington returned from suspension.
The defense is, of course, very tough for the 49ers as well and things will only get better this week with Patrick Willis returning from injury. The 49ers have done a terrific job holding opponents to 14 points in 2 weeks without arguably their two best defenders, Willis and Aldon Smith. That speaks to their depth. While Smith is still out indefinitely, they should continue frustrating opponent’s defensively going forward.
Given that, I want to take the points and expect a defensive battle, but I’m going with the 49ers for a 3rd straight blowout victory. The Cardinals could be distracted with a Thursday Night Game against the Seahawks and not be as focused as they have to be to hang with a tough 49er team. The 49ers, meanwhile, have absolutely no distractions here with a trip to Tennessee and Jacksonville on deck. The 49ers should rip through these next 3 games going into their bye, starting this week. Also, teams are 25-37 ATS since 1989 as double digit dogs off of a win as home dogs. I’m not confident though.
San Francisco 49ers 23 Arizona Cardinals 9
Pick against spread: San Francisco 49ers -11
Confidence: None
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Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#20)
Last week: 20 (+0)
Record: 3-2
The Cardinals are 3-2 right now. That isn’t a huge shock. They had an over/under for their win total of 5.5 and teams with totals under 6 hit the over about 2/3rds of the time (Oakland and Jacksonville also had totals under 6 this year). A lot of times, bad teams are better than people think and I think the Cardinals have proved that. That being said, I haven’t been that impressed with them and I don’t think they are a legitimate playoff contender.
Week 5 Studs
RE Calais Campbell
MLB Daryl Washington
Week 5 Duds
TE Rob Housler
ROLB John Abraham
MLB Karlos Dansby
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Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#20)
Last week: 21 (+1)
Record: 2-2
Daryl Washington returns this week from suspension and it’s pretty ridiculous that he gets to play while Von Miller continues to be suspended. Not only did Washington fail a drug test, he is also accused of assaulting his girlfriend and breaking her collarbone. He hasn’t been proven guilty yet (his trial is October 9th), but if convicted, he deserves a lengthy suspension. The length of suspension for drugs is disproportionally short to the length of suspensions for violence. The NFL should not tolerate this kind of thing, especially against women.
Week 4 Studs
RE Matt Shaughnessy
LE Frostee Rucker
CB Patrick Peterson
Week 4 Duds
RB Rashard Mendenhall
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